So with Regionals (or your area's local eqvialent) it's time to start sleeving up and thinking about what you'll run. As I see it here are a few advantages WW may have:
1.) A high Jund count. While it is true that they sideboard out a lot of their black creatures spell in favor of more removal and green beats we still have a great game one and a chance game two and three, especially if we retool the sideboard in response to keep up the pressure. Jund is still going to be king and depending on the expected meta we may either slip under the radar, or have to be aware of the potential of Consume the Meek (great against tokens and swarm) if Polymorph makes a big showing or Consuming Vapors (hurts Tech'd Out WW alot). At least our removal permanently deals with Vengevine.
2.) RDW might make a sleeper attempt. It has a great game against Jund, can outrace Poly and considering the recent movement in a lot of metas, Vampire and WW will be in lower numbers, increasing the chance for favorable matchups. There has also been a few recent success stories with RDW adding a black splash for Blighting, Lavaclaw and Deathmark, meaning they are never dead against a Firewalker and can hurt our hands, greatly increasing their chances of sucess. Look for a few players pulling a "Johnny McCain" (or goin' rogue for you non-American players) and attempting to exploit a potential hole in the meta and if that happens a Celestial Purge SB swap over Devout Lightcaster in WW and Tech can be greatly beneifical and G/W will find their Vengevines and KotRs paying great dividends against this deck. Also due to Student of Warfare being a new powerful toy Ranger of Eos becomes even better, recouping lost card advantage along side everyone's favorite blacksmith, Stoneforge Mystic.
3.) We still handily beat Vamps, even post RoE, but Tech seems to have the best chance to avoid the random Consume the Meek blowout. Consuming Vapors hurts a lot, Gatekeeper is still strong and Tendrils can buffer a life total just enough to swing a random game or two, but our FSers and Pro-Black guys still deliver a wallop that forces them to respond to us. They still lack real answers to a DoJ, other than a Bloodghast or two, and their inability to answer enchantments and artifacts once played means once we stabilize we stay stabilized. This makes Devout Lightcaster nice, but not as essential as when Vamps was bigger and Jund needed Putrid Leech to win and the loss doesn't hurt as very much against Vamps.
4.) We do extremely well against Rogue decks because of how tight and consistent our deck is. One of the reasons Jund decks still run Putrid Leech is because they put so much pressure on a clunkier, poorly designed rogue deck, giving them less time to set up their locks, combos, or super secret techs they are aiming for. Steppe Lynx does the same thing, but better, swinging for two to four on turn two or two to six on turn three. Add in a second turn two lynx and a sandbag fetch and you'll quickly show your opponent why people netdeck. Student of Warfare also does quite well and people running dodge gains a little extra insurance against creature based combos.
Of course there is always the other side of the coin to contend with. This is what I believe hurts our deck.
1.) U/W Control. If you've played against it you know a lot of times it feels like you need a Hail Mary Miracle to pull off the win. It will DoJ, Omens, Sphinx, and Slayer its way around your guys and if things ever get too iffy it's going to Coup some dudes up and beat you to death with a bunch of 1/1s. So how much sideboard space should we devote to a tough match up? Too behonest I stopped running Luminarch Ascension awhile ago because it never seemed to tip the match enough my favor to let it eat up slots in my board. On a note Open the Vaults is very beatable if you are running Tech unless they play Sanguine Bound. Those decks use a nifty little trick where they dump it and recur it with a Filigree Angel, hitting you for twenty plus life and winning out right. Otherwise you can Path and Exile their man guys, sweep the board a few times and focus on gaining life and surviving large swings until your opponent mills themselves to death. Relic of Progenitus helps a lot and four paths, four rings and four Day of Judgment can make the match a little stupid. A collar can buff your life and protect you long enough to hang back on dropping a DoJ until critical mass. The problem is Open the Vaults is still considered fringe. U/W control will be run by everyone looking to pack counterspells. So how big of the meta game chunk will it be?
2.) Stupid, fat midrange decks are bad for us. In fact the only reason we fair well against Jund is they are creature light, and we can hate out two of their three colors. We can not hate out Junk, Bant and Naya though and with Nobles and Cobras making turn two KotR and turn three Baneslayers and Sphinxs a real possibility. At best you let them dump their hand and DoJ and even than that's not always enough. The best Bant decks seem to be no removal, a ton of fat, a few Mindsculptors and a handful of utility lands. They also get nutsy "Opps! I won!" moments courtesy of a well timed Rafiq of the Many or Finest Hour. Post board they have Pridemage and removal if they want it. Bant in particular has made a few strong showings recently, Naya is still a background midrange threat that sees decent play and Junk lost a little steam because blue and red gained more toys than black in the last two sets, but still has some play left in it. G/W seems to be the worse variety of WW to face against Bant, Naya or Junk because it tries to be midrange with a few early threats, but ends up being the slower, clunkier cousin most of the time. Fear and expect Bant, especially the later you get into X-0, X-0-1 and X-1 rounds.
So that is how I see it. I could ultimately be wrong, but I still feel WW might have a place if care is taken to consider all options and factors. Am I wrong? Or is there something I missed? We have over two weeks to tweak and test and I'd love to hear feedback, comments or ideas. Just to be clear I will be running the Stoneforge Mystic/ Ranger of Eos package, with at least three Dojs, O-Rings and PtEs to back me up. I'll even post a decklist as it becomes more refined and well tuned. And I hope others do the same, if only so we can all help each other along a bit.
I'm planning on playing WW for both Atlanta this weekend, and Nat's on the 15th. The Jund matchup postboard is starting to worry me though I have to say. Pre-board we've got really good odds on winning, but from recent postboard tests, I'm finding it ridiculously hard if they have any perpetration for us, I think we really need to work out some solid answers to improve our game 2 and 3 against them.
U/W seems to be rising more and more in popularity with every passing major event, definitely an deck I think we can't ignore or hope to avoid much longer. I find it to be an incredibly difficult match up no matter how I cut it.
Sideboard against Jund
-2 DoJ
-3 Oblivion Ring
-2 Student of Warfare
+1 Kor Firewalker
+1 White Knight
+3 Celestial Purge
+2 Wall of Omens
This gives me eight pro bears and two walls that can not simply be lighting bolted and makes any removal used by my opponent CA. You can ignore a bloodwitch and out race it with a few dorks and a machete equipped White Knight. I know cutting Devout Lightcaster may seem controversial, but post board when Sprouting Thrinax and Putrid Leech get replaced with kill and Bloodwitches come out. You might be able to hit an occasional Broodmate Dragon, still leaving it's token half. Celestial Purge not only hits SGC, BMD and BBE, but it removes Manlands completely meaning the edges can strike Savage Lands, Rootbound Craigs and Dragonskull Summit instead. I do leave the PtE in as emergency removal, a tool to keep a Pulse for punishing me for multiple creatures and as a way to deal with the random Vengevines that might show up. I cut to two SoW simply because they are boltable, and still serve a better purpose late game when they are tutored up by Ranger of Eos.
Sideboard against U/W
-3 Path to Exile
-3 Kor Firewalker
+2 Kor Sanctifiers
+2 Lapse of Certainty
+1 Oblivion Ring
+1 Day of Judgment
Path tends to be dead against U/W because even if it can hit something you don't want to accelerate them any. Firewalkers gone because White Knight's FS means it can trade with a Baneslayer when buffed or equipped and out right kills a Sphinx. I keep the DoJs in because it can sweep after a Martial Coup, hit a shrouded Sphinx and can help clear the way for a little quick damage next turn. Kor Sanctifiers can bust up an O-Ring or Chalice and Lapse has seen little play the last few months making it a tech choice to give you one more turn to steal the game.
I still need to make a few changes to solidify numbers, because I really want a third Lapsem but its starting to take shape more and more everyday. I will probably cut the two relics for a Pithing Needle and the third Lapse though I want to test and read some more results first before I make any major decisions.
Emeria shouldn't be seeing play in WW builds. Most of the time you're never even going to play the seven other Plains required to turn it on. You won't see your singleton Emeria half the time, even in the longest games, and it'll just get shut down by Tectonic Edge or Spreading Seas + friends if you do see it (especially if you run without Skyfisher). Using multiples just slows down your early game with an undesirable CIPT land. Emeria is not good outside of a build dedicated for it, which a "weenie" build is not.
Emeria shouldn't be seeing play in WW builds. Most of the time you're never even going to play the seven other Plains required to turn it on. You won't see your singleton Emeria half the time, even in the longest games, and it'll just get shut down by Tectonic Edge or Spreading Seas + friends if you do see it (especially if you run without Skyfisher). Using multiples just slows down your early game with an undesirable CIPT land. Emeria is not good outside of a build dedicated for it, which a "weenie" build is not.
Actually in the mirror match and against naya in the long games it helps tremendously when it hit sand I have always found it is a great miser draw. I even ran two when I played 26 lands and the threat of it going off alone is enough to worry a lot of opponents. Sure I don't see it every game and when I do see it I might not see seven plains, but it has yet to cost me a mulligan by itself and so far has earned its place as a one of.
I never had any luck with it personally, but 26 land is very high for a WW deck considering the "usual" aggro deck runs 23-24 land and a lot of WW variants even go below 20. Wescoe ran 25 with a miser's Emeria, though, so whatever floats your boat.
You might consider Dread Statuary over Tectonic Edge as well (wouldn't want both because they're both colorless), which has a relatively easy activation cost for the higher-land count WW decks and could overwhelm their land destruction/disruption effects. Lets you keep swinging through Wrath effects and is a great boon in control matchups...
I never had any luck with it personally, but 26 land is very high for a WW deck considering the "usual" aggro deck runs 23-24 land and a lot of WW variants even go below 20. Wescoe ran 25 with a miser's Emeria, though, so whatever floats your boat.
You might consider Dread Statuary over Tectonic Edge as well (wouldn't want both because they're both colorless), which has a relatively easy activation cost for the higher-land count WW decks and could overwhelm their land destruction/disruption effects. Lets you keep swinging through Wrath effects and is a great boon in control matchups...
Yeah 25 has been a lot on one or two occasions but its nice to be able to activate the dread or sac an edge without hurting ourselves. And I agree on the power of Dread post wrath but I'm now running ranger of eos to help bounce back, and lapse of certainty to counter it for a turn, which can actually win it for you on the play. I am also considering scepter of dominance but so far it has only tested so-so.
I never meant for this to be a thread about my match up thoughts, decklist or analyzes, though I greaterly appreciate the comments. I more so wanted to see what others were running to get ideas and to refresh my own list and to help others do the same for their list. For example I am now also testing a 24 land build both with and without emeria and using the extra space for a fourth mystic or ranger by putting in a soldier token and deciding which I'd rather see it be in that situation, which is a practice I find helps a little when hammering out final counts.
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1.) A high Jund count. While it is true that they sideboard out a lot of their black creatures spell in favor of more removal and green beats we still have a great game one and a chance game two and three, especially if we retool the sideboard in response to keep up the pressure. Jund is still going to be king and depending on the expected meta we may either slip under the radar, or have to be aware of the potential of Consume the Meek (great against tokens and swarm) if Polymorph makes a big showing or Consuming Vapors (hurts Tech'd Out WW alot). At least our removal permanently deals with Vengevine.
2.) RDW might make a sleeper attempt. It has a great game against Jund, can outrace Poly and considering the recent movement in a lot of metas, Vampire and WW will be in lower numbers, increasing the chance for favorable matchups. There has also been a few recent success stories with RDW adding a black splash for Blighting, Lavaclaw and Deathmark, meaning they are never dead against a Firewalker and can hurt our hands, greatly increasing their chances of sucess. Look for a few players pulling a "Johnny McCain" (or goin' rogue for you non-American players) and attempting to exploit a potential hole in the meta and if that happens a Celestial Purge SB swap over Devout Lightcaster in WW and Tech can be greatly beneifical and G/W will find their Vengevines and KotRs paying great dividends against this deck. Also due to Student of Warfare being a new powerful toy Ranger of Eos becomes even better, recouping lost card advantage along side everyone's favorite blacksmith, Stoneforge Mystic.
3.) We still handily beat Vamps, even post RoE, but Tech seems to have the best chance to avoid the random Consume the Meek blowout. Consuming Vapors hurts a lot, Gatekeeper is still strong and Tendrils can buffer a life total just enough to swing a random game or two, but our FSers and Pro-Black guys still deliver a wallop that forces them to respond to us. They still lack real answers to a DoJ, other than a Bloodghast or two, and their inability to answer enchantments and artifacts once played means once we stabilize we stay stabilized. This makes Devout Lightcaster nice, but not as essential as when Vamps was bigger and Jund needed Putrid Leech to win and the loss doesn't hurt as very much against Vamps.
4.) We do extremely well against Rogue decks because of how tight and consistent our deck is. One of the reasons Jund decks still run Putrid Leech is because they put so much pressure on a clunkier, poorly designed rogue deck, giving them less time to set up their locks, combos, or super secret techs they are aiming for. Steppe Lynx does the same thing, but better, swinging for two to four on turn two or two to six on turn three. Add in a second turn two lynx and a sandbag fetch and you'll quickly show your opponent why people netdeck. Student of Warfare also does quite well and people running dodge gains a little extra insurance against creature based combos.
Of course there is always the other side of the coin to contend with. This is what I believe hurts our deck.
1.) U/W Control. If you've played against it you know a lot of times it feels like you need a Hail Mary Miracle to pull off the win. It will DoJ, Omens, Sphinx, and Slayer its way around your guys and if things ever get too iffy it's going to Coup some dudes up and beat you to death with a bunch of 1/1s. So how much sideboard space should we devote to a tough match up? Too behonest I stopped running Luminarch Ascension awhile ago because it never seemed to tip the match enough my favor to let it eat up slots in my board. On a note Open the Vaults is very beatable if you are running Tech unless they play Sanguine Bound. Those decks use a nifty little trick where they dump it and recur it with a Filigree Angel, hitting you for twenty plus life and winning out right. Otherwise you can Path and Exile their man guys, sweep the board a few times and focus on gaining life and surviving large swings until your opponent mills themselves to death. Relic of Progenitus helps a lot and four paths, four rings and four Day of Judgment can make the match a little stupid. A collar can buff your life and protect you long enough to hang back on dropping a DoJ until critical mass. The problem is Open the Vaults is still considered fringe. U/W control will be run by everyone looking to pack counterspells. So how big of the meta game chunk will it be?
2.) Stupid, fat midrange decks are bad for us. In fact the only reason we fair well against Jund is they are creature light, and we can hate out two of their three colors. We can not hate out Junk, Bant and Naya though and with Nobles and Cobras making turn two KotR and turn three Baneslayers and Sphinxs a real possibility. At best you let them dump their hand and DoJ and even than that's not always enough. The best Bant decks seem to be no removal, a ton of fat, a few Mindsculptors and a handful of utility lands. They also get nutsy "Opps! I won!" moments courtesy of a well timed Rafiq of the Many or Finest Hour. Post board they have Pridemage and removal if they want it. Bant in particular has made a few strong showings recently, Naya is still a background midrange threat that sees decent play and Junk lost a little steam because blue and red gained more toys than black in the last two sets, but still has some play left in it. G/W seems to be the worse variety of WW to face against Bant, Naya or Junk because it tries to be midrange with a few early threats, but ends up being the slower, clunkier cousin most of the time. Fear and expect Bant, especially the later you get into X-0, X-0-1 and X-1 rounds.
So that is how I see it. I could ultimately be wrong, but I still feel WW might have a place if care is taken to consider all options and factors. Am I wrong? Or is there something I missed? We have over two weeks to tweak and test and I'd love to hear feedback, comments or ideas. Just to be clear I will be running the Stoneforge Mystic/ Ranger of Eos package, with at least three Dojs, O-Rings and PtEs to back me up. I'll even post a decklist as it becomes more refined and well tuned. And I hope others do the same, if only so we can all help each other along a bit.
U/W seems to be rising more and more in popularity with every passing major event, definitely an deck I think we can't ignore or hope to avoid much longer. I find it to be an incredibly difficult match up no matter how I cut it.
12 Plains
4 Marsh Flats
4 Arid Mesa
1 Emeria, the Sky Ruin
4 Steppe Lynx
4 Student of Warfare
3 White Knight
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Stoneforge Mystic
3 Ranger of Eos
1 Basilisk Collar
1 Trusty Machete
1 Sigil of Distinction
2 Day of Judgment
3 Oblivion Ring
3 Path to Exile
2 Brave the Elements
2 Wall of Omens
2 Kor Sanctifiers
2 Relic of Progenitus
3 Celestial Purge
1 Day of Judgment
1 Oblivion Ring
1 White Knight
1 Kor Firewalker
2 Lapse of Certainty
Sideboard against Jund
-2 DoJ
-3 Oblivion Ring
-2 Student of Warfare
+1 Kor Firewalker
+1 White Knight
+3 Celestial Purge
+2 Wall of Omens
This gives me eight pro bears and two walls that can not simply be lighting bolted and makes any removal used by my opponent CA. You can ignore a bloodwitch and out race it with a few dorks and a machete equipped White Knight. I know cutting Devout Lightcaster may seem controversial, but post board when Sprouting Thrinax and Putrid Leech get replaced with kill and Bloodwitches come out. You might be able to hit an occasional Broodmate Dragon, still leaving it's token half. Celestial Purge not only hits SGC, BMD and BBE, but it removes Manlands completely meaning the edges can strike Savage Lands, Rootbound Craigs and Dragonskull Summit instead. I do leave the PtE in as emergency removal, a tool to keep a Pulse for punishing me for multiple creatures and as a way to deal with the random Vengevines that might show up. I cut to two SoW simply because they are boltable, and still serve a better purpose late game when they are tutored up by Ranger of Eos.
Sideboard against U/W
-3 Path to Exile
-3 Kor Firewalker
+2 Kor Sanctifiers
+2 Lapse of Certainty
+1 Oblivion Ring
+1 Day of Judgment
Path tends to be dead against U/W because even if it can hit something you don't want to accelerate them any. Firewalkers gone because White Knight's FS means it can trade with a Baneslayer when buffed or equipped and out right kills a Sphinx. I keep the DoJs in because it can sweep after a Martial Coup, hit a shrouded Sphinx and can help clear the way for a little quick damage next turn. Kor Sanctifiers can bust up an O-Ring or Chalice and Lapse has seen little play the last few months making it a tech choice to give you one more turn to steal the game.
I still need to make a few changes to solidify numbers, because I really want a third Lapsem but its starting to take shape more and more everyday. I will probably cut the two relics for a Pithing Needle and the third Lapse though I want to test and read some more results first before I make any major decisions.
Actually in the mirror match and against naya in the long games it helps tremendously when it hit sand I have always found it is a great miser draw. I even ran two when I played 26 lands and the threat of it going off alone is enough to worry a lot of opponents. Sure I don't see it every game and when I do see it I might not see seven plains, but it has yet to cost me a mulligan by itself and so far has earned its place as a one of.
You might consider Dread Statuary over Tectonic Edge as well (wouldn't want both because they're both colorless), which has a relatively easy activation cost for the higher-land count WW decks and could overwhelm their land destruction/disruption effects. Lets you keep swinging through Wrath effects and is a great boon in control matchups...
Yeah 25 has been a lot on one or two occasions but its nice to be able to activate the dread or sac an edge without hurting ourselves. And I agree on the power of Dread post wrath but I'm now running ranger of eos to help bounce back, and lapse of certainty to counter it for a turn, which can actually win it for you on the play. I am also considering scepter of dominance but so far it has only tested so-so.
I never meant for this to be a thread about my match up thoughts, decklist or analyzes, though I greaterly appreciate the comments. I more so wanted to see what others were running to get ideas and to refresh my own list and to help others do the same for their list. For example I am now also testing a 24 land build both with and without emeria and using the extra space for a fourth mystic or ranger by putting in a soldier token and deciding which I'd rather see it be in that situation, which is a practice I find helps a little when hammering out final counts.