What do you find most problematic about the matchup? Are we too slow? Do we need lifegain? Their falter abilities?
If we are too slow, I am wondering if we should opt for Chandra Torch of Defiance, removing counter (some) counters, decreasing the torrential count and maybe using something like metallurgic summonings to diversify our threats.
If the problem is we need lifegain then maybe we need to run as Jeskai and opt for blessed alliance and fumigate.
If falter is the problem, then maybe we lean on flash with nimble obstructionist and spell queller.
What do you think?
I don't know if Jeskai is the way to go, but I absolutely believe that if you want to win Monored, you need Authority of the Consuls, and maybe Blessed Alliance. Fumigate is too slow.
Also maybe Crumble to Dust if you intend to keep the long game plan.
The issue is just kind of everything. Their deck all has haste, they have a lot of direct burn, are way faster, and can finish you off from 8 with their lands.
It's a mix of "They come out of the gates too fast", "They are more sweeper resilient then one would expect", and "Even if we stabilize with 6-8 life, they can just burn us out".
1) Sweepers. Currently our sweeper choices are Kozilek's Return vs Sweltering Suns vs Hour of Devastation. For this matchup, Kozilek's Return is the clear winner, but that really hurts us versus zombies. Sweltering Suns is fine in this matchup, and good vs zombies, but hour of devastation is better vs zombies and mardu. Currently i'm leaning towards mainboard sweltering suns.
There are advantages to both Kozilek's Return and Sweltering Suns. Instant speed helps when it comes to haste, and being able to leave mana up to counter Hazoret may be more important than sweeping what's already on the battlefield. However, Sweltering Suns isn't a dead card against the mirror, since you can cycle it.
As an aside, adding in Kozilek's Return again makes me ask if it's worth trying to fit a couple Elder Deep-Fiends in the deck. It's Abrade-proof, lets us respond to an Abrade against Gearhulk, and can trigger Kozilek's Return out of the graveyard which will board-wipe them except for Hazoret.
2) Sideboard tech. We need some fresh ideas here. Currently one i'm toying with in the temur dynavolt lists is having sideboard Life Goes On. It sounds janky and it's probably terrible, but it's the best idea I have at the moment. I've also noted that shielded Aether-thiefs have been much better then thing in the ice for this matchup, to flash in front of khenra and ahn-crop effects and try to dig for more removal.
I don't really like any of these ideas. I think this makes your mana-base too unreliable. You need the early game to be very reliable against mono-red. You don't have time to wait to get the right colored mana. I think it's better to base your early game on killing their early stuff as fast as it drops, via Magma Spray. I would even consider the option of 4x Shock in the sideboard. The deck gets out of control if you give them too many turns to keep dropping stuff and attacking. I also don't think Thing in the Ice or the flash alternative are good enough. Typically they can just Shock it after blocks to remove it.
3) Do we try to win this matchup? Part of me is saying "Let's build a decklist that ignores this entirely, if we can't find a way to make the matchup at least, say, 35-65. Let's punt this matchup and build to crush everything else".
You have to beat this matchup. It's going to be a huge part of the metagame in the near future. If you give up beating mono-red, you give up doing better than 50-50 on the day. If you're preparing for Game Day this upcoming weekend, this is the deck you want to build against.
I'm going to go back up to 4x Disallow. A common place for the game state to be is that we've successfully wiped their board, but we're at low enough life total that a couple Ramunap Ruins uses will finish us off. Disallow is the only thing that can save you in that case.
Decks that ramp to Ulamog should be non-existent this weekend. They are too slow against mono-red. I wouldn't waste any sideboard slots on things like Summary Dismissal.
Here's my deck for this weekend. I'm shifting both the main-deck and the sideboard hard against mono-red, while trying still to have game against other decks in the format.
Notes about the sideboard:
- Hour of Devastation is basically anti-Gideon stuff in the event that you face Mardu Vehicles. I don't think it's a good choices for Monument or Zombies. Bring in smaller stuff like Sweltering Suns, Shock, and Incendiary Flow for those decks.
- Elder Deep-Fiend is anti-Abrade tech (as is the Endless Sands in the main deck). It's meant to only ever be cast for UU via Gearhulk.
- By Force is basically there because I haven't put anything else in its place. I think with Abrade we have enough already against Artifact-based decks like Vehicles. Not really sure what I would put in its place, though.
Heith the Kyoto results, I have a few ideas/questions going forward in control.
First, I agree that at least 3 sweltering suns should be in the 75. Do we however also include kozilek's return? Perhaps 2 and 2?
Second, how valuable is Torrential Gearhulks? Abrade was one of the most prevalent cards and crook of condemnation also affects it. Should we drop 1 or 2?
Third, because of the dominance of aggro, should we play two Chandra Torch of Defiance in the main? She not only seems good for removal, but ramps into our larger threats.If we include her, how does this change our counter shell?
Fourth, should we be three or four colors? Bolas seems good in the sideboard, but white seems more important. Authority of the consuls looks very appealing and cast out is at least nice in the sideboard.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
Personally, I don't think Kozilek's Return is big enough unless you want to include an Eldrazi. Sweltering Suns in the maindeck and Hour of Devastation in the side seems the most reasonable set of sweepers. I also like the idea of Chandra, Flamecaller as it really adds everything this deck wants.
Torrential Gearhulk is still what makes this deck playable, in my opinion. You may get one Abraded, but whatever you are flashing back should make up for it. Another option is looking seriously at bringing back Goblin Dark-Dwellers to flash back the sweepers.
I think Chandra, Torch of Defiance is too slow vs the troublesome decks, at least if you aren't already ahead. Using her as spot removal is very inefficient and she has to survive a turn to be useful ramp. A deck like Ramunap is going to ignore her and finish you off...
I think the third color is a reasonable consideration. I'd also like to look at whether or not black has enough sweepers to make it as the second color to U. It may not, but with both 3- and 4-mana sweepers, it could have potential to be a bit faster than red... Maybe...
I think we need to have a conversation about the red elephant in the room for this archetype: the horrible matchup versus Ramunap Red. I've found that I can craft a deck with a 70% or higher winrate vs every deck in the meta but Ramunap, and that I can do that both with a Temur Dynavolt version, and a straight UR, and a bolas version. But the toolkit at our disposal simply does not answer Ramunap.
I think we need to do a proper brainstorm to come up with some ideas. Here's the thought processes i'm currently going down:
1) Sweepers. Currently our sweeper choices are Kozilek's Return vs Sweltering Suns vs Hour of Devastation. For this matchup, Kozilek's Return is the clear winner, but that really hurts us versus zombies. Sweltering Suns is fine in this matchup, and good vs zombies, but hour of devastation is better vs zombies and mardu. Currently i'm leaning towards mainboard sweltering suns.
2) Sideboard tech. We need some fresh ideas here. Currently one i'm toying with in the temur dynavolt lists is having sideboard Life Goes On. It sounds janky and it's probably terrible, but it's the best idea I have at the moment. I've also noted that shielded Aether-thiefs have been much better then thing in the ice for this matchup, to flash in front of khenra and ahn-crop effects and try to dig for more removal.
3) Do we try to win this matchup? Part of me is saying "Let's build a decklist that ignores this entirely, if we can't find a way to make the matchup at least, say, 35-65. Let's punt this matchup and build to crush everything else".
I think it's right to maindeck Sweltering Suns at this point. Kozilek's Return isn't as versatile as you point out. Hour should remain somewhere in the 75.
I like the idea of looking for sideboard possibilities. I see a lot more in black and white, though. Adding in lifegain or more efficient sweepers looks attractive to me. I think a lot of things are worth looking at if red is going to be this much of the metagame...
1/3 of the players on day 2 were on this. I don't think you can ignore the match-up. Not to say it will be automatic to improve, but you can't write off 1/3 of the competitive meta and expect to do well...
What do you find most problematic about the matchup? Are we too slow? Do we need lifegain? Their falter abilities?
If we are too slow, I am wondering if we should opt for Chandra Torch of Defiance, removing counter (some) counters, decreasing the torrential count and maybe using something like metallurgic summonings to diversify our threats.
If the problem is we need lifegain then maybe we need to run as Jeskai and opt for blessed alliance and fumigate.
If falter is the problem, then maybe we lean on flash with nimble obstructionist and spell queller.
What do you think?
In my opinion, it's their ability to get in so fast. In games where you get a turn 5 to cast Hour of Devastation, you are actually in great shape. If you haven't found a sweeper by then, scoop and move to game two where you can get faster and increase your early interaction.
I'm not sure that's the right Chandra, though. She does nothing for our board state turn 4 and most Ramunap Red decks can just ignore her and win. I like the idea of shifting to more sweepers as the starting point. Honestly, I wish good old Pyroclasm was available right now...
I think it's right to maindeck Sweltering Suns at this point. Kozilek's Return isn't as versatile as you point out.
This was my view until I remembered that Kozilek's Return is an instant. The advantages of it being an instant are HUGE in this deck.
- can be flashed back with Gearhulk, can't do that with Sweltering Suns
- Lets you leave mana up for countering if they play Hazoret before attacking.
- There is so much haste in that deck that they can still get damage in the turn after you play Sweltering Suns. This kills everything in the deck that has haste except for Hazoret.
- Potentially makes them waste Cartouche of Zeal if you play in response.
I might see splitting 2/2 between them if you're concerned about dead cards against a control mirror. It may be the better choice once the format settles down, but right now I can't see it being a dead card in this meta.
This was my view until I remembered that Kozilek's Return is an instant. The advantages of it being an instant are HUGE in this deck.
- can be flashed back with Gearhulk, can't do that with Sweltering Suns
- Lets you leave mana up for countering if they play Hazoret before attacking.
- There is so much haste in that deck that they can still get damage in the turn after you play Sweltering Suns. This kills everything in the deck that has haste except for Hazoret.
- Potentially makes them waste Cartouche of Zeal if you play in response.
I might see splitting 2/2 between them if you're concerned about dead cards against a control mirror. It may be the better choice once the format settles down, but right now I can't see it being a dead card in this meta.
I think the bigger issue is that Kozilek's Return won't always kill Zombies... The pump cards in Zombies will have you fighting 3/3s (or larger) much of the time. Yes, you may up your game against Red, but at a cost against other decks. Sweltering Suns being a sorcery does make it less attractive, but the three damage makes it more versatile against the current meta.
If someone tests it alot, it may be worth noting how many times the extra damage is needed... On paper, it seems important.
I think we need to have a conversation about the red elephant in the room for this archetype: the horrible matchup versus Ramunap Red. I've found that I can craft a deck with a 70% or higher winrate vs every deck in the meta but Ramunap, and that I can do that both with a Temur Dynavolt version, and a straight UR, and a bolas version. But the toolkit at our disposal simply does not answer Ramunap.
I think we need to do a proper brainstorm to come up with some ideas. Here's the thought processes i'm currently going down:
1) Sweepers. Currently our sweeper choices are Kozilek's Return vs Sweltering Suns vs Hour of Devastation. For this matchup, Kozilek's Return is the clear winner, but that really hurts us versus zombies. Sweltering Suns is fine in this matchup, and good vs zombies, but hour of devastation is better vs zombies and mardu. Currently i'm leaning towards mainboard sweltering suns.
2) Sideboard tech. We need some fresh ideas here. Currently one i'm toying with in the temur dynavolt lists is having sideboard Life Goes On. It sounds janky and it's probably terrible, but it's the best idea I have at the moment. I've also noted that shielded Aether-thiefs have been much better then thing in the ice for this matchup, to flash in front of khenra and ahn-crop effects and try to dig for more removal.
3) Do we try to win this matchup? Part of me is saying "Let's build a decklist that ignores this entirely, if we can't find a way to make the matchup at least, say, 35-65. Let's punt this matchup and build to crush everything else".
1.) Sweltering Suns I feel is a good balance between "Strong enough to kill zombies" and "Isn't too slow vs. Ramunap Red". K-Return is good but I do think it obligates you to play EDF which is a bit too top-heavy for my liking. Hour of Devastation is great, but likely best in the board.
2.) As was mentioned, white is probably the best option for stopping the deck, via blessed alliance and authority of the consuls just making the kill that much harder. However the call for black with Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh is pretty powerful since he's just absurd if you get to him, and collective brutality can also buy time by killing a dude and draining for 2. Crumble to Dust on their ruins also seems great because it deprives them of their best way to finish against bigger decks.
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
I do think that once the meta does start to come to terms with the deck and its play decreases to a normal stable amount (I expect 15-20% of the meta) we can cut out some of the more dedicated hate cards for general hate that also mucks with them. But at least for the next 3-4 weeks we need to be very prepared to see this deck almost every round.
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3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
The PT just ended yesterday. I am a firm believer that any and every deck, no matter how broken, can be beaten and beaten soundly with the right application of hate. We just need to figure out what that hate is and how best to apply it.
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K-Return is good but I do think it obligates you to play EDF which is a bit too top-heavy for my liking.
I think if you consider it only as a play when you have Gearhulk already on the battlefield, it's not top-heavy at all, just very conditional. Combined with a playset of Kozilek's Return, it's basically like having a card that costs UU and says "Counter target spell that would target your Gearhulk, tap 4 permanents, and deal 5 damage to other creatures" which is pretty damned good. I'm gonna try it.
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
Most of those cards are good against a large portion of the remainder of the metagame (Monument & Zombies).
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
The PT just ended yesterday. I am a firm believer that any and every deck, no matter how broken, can be beaten and beaten soundly with the right application of hate. We just need to figure out what that hate is and how best to apply it.
I do hope you are right perhaps I am getting ahead of myself.
As I have considered it more, I think going grixis might have the best value over all. Collected brutality can help with some lifegain and removal and can be targeted by goblin dark dwellers. Black also allows for Kolitas, who seems very good and even grasp of darkness to deal with hazoret and glorybringer. And most of all, you get to play bolas. I think white can work, but it waters down the deck and I think is too hard to get the Mana base to cast an early authority of consuls.
Could you elaborate more on the options for using black?
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
I think the success of Ramunap Red is going to force this deck to adopt some midrange elements as the metagame shifts. I find when I play vs Red, I side into something much lower curve, ditching most of the counters as 'too slow'. I still don't believe that UR Control can't work, just that it may not be the strongest right now in an Aggor-heavy meta.
Is it worth 'pre-boarding' a package against aggro and transitioning to a more controlling deck after Game 1?
Another thought... I can't help but wonder if Unsummon could play an important role in this deck. Not only does it protect our Gearhulks from Abrade (and allow recasting them), but it can also be a safeguard for any Hazorets that slip through. Return and counter.
from my experience they are quite similar cards just chandra is much better. They have a similar clock and both are able to accrue card advantage.
Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh and Chandra, Flamecaller are two very different cards. They don't necessarily fill the same role, and do not have a lot of overlap. The "card advantage" they accrue is true only in the vaguest of terms. They aren't meant for CA. That's okay.
That said - in an overall sense - Nicol Bolas is a significantly better Planeswalker in most decks, including most (if not all) versions of this deck, than Chandra, Flamecaller.
You've said that one "deserves to lose" if NB is resolved and one does not have the board state to ignore/kill, but that is a sharp oversimplification of each individual matchup, and MTG as a card game in general. Not even in a sweeping sense is your statement accurate. If anything, that would apply to Chandra, Flamecaller, who's 3/1 haste tokens are far more dependent on board state than NBs +2, +1, and -4.
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
I think the success of Ramunap Red is going to force this deck to adopt some midrange elements as the metagame shifts. I find when I play vs Red, I side into something much lower curve, ditching most of the counters as 'too slow'. I still don't believe that UR Control can't work, just that it may not be the strongest right now in an Aggor-heavy meta.
Is it worth 'pre-boarding' a package against aggro and transitioning to a more controlling deck after Game 1?
While I can't and won't speak for your meta, that doesn't seem like a terrible play. Load up on cheap kill spells and sweepers and burn and have nicol bolas or Kalitas or even sphinx of the last word as a finisher, then if they're not on hyper-aggro you bring in the counters and gearhulks?
I'm actually trending towards going RUG, I don't think UWR or Grixis add enough to make the manabase so much worse while the green splash would be fairly harmless because of having access to Botanical Sanctum. There isn't much lifegain in green but Life Goes On is very cost efficient, maybe even could get use out of Pulse of Murasa
Green does give us some lifegain, it also gives us a hexproof beater in Lumbering Falls plus a lot of surety in hitting land drops with Attune with Aether. And if you want to be SUPER tech, there's Void Grafter that can be used to countercall abrade on gearhulk.
We will have to test and tech and find out what third color does the best.
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What about a more basic answer to Ranunap Red? One of the top performing U/R decks ran sideboard Pia Nalaar and deck of other types I've seen run Filigree Familiar. It may put us off a full control plan, but speedbumps with upsides are good speed bumps to have. Lifegain, kill a creature and draw a card. All seem good alongside some cheap removal to stem the bleeding until you can take control of the game.
Also, what do you all think of Savage Alliance? Damo da Rosa ran a pair in his sideboard for the mirror. It hits most of their drops, plus one of anything bigger with escalate. Not great in other match ups, but something to know it's there.
What about a more basic answer to Ranunap Red? One of the top performing U/R decks ran sideboard Pia Nalaar and deck of other types I've seen run Filigree Familiar. It may put us off a full control plan, but speedbumps with upsides are good speed bumps to have. Lifegain, kill a creature and draw a card. All seem good alongside some cheap removal to stem the bleeding until you can take control of the game.
Also, what do you all think of Savage Alliance? Damo da Rosa ran a pair in his sideboard for the mirror. It hits most of their drops, plus one of anything bigger with escalate. Not great in other match ups, but something to know it's there.
What about a more basic answer to Ranunap Red? One of the top performing U/R decks ran sideboard Pia Nalaar and deck of other types I've seen run Filigree Familiar. It may put us off a full control plan, but speedbumps with upsides are good speed bumps to have. Lifegain, kill a creature and draw a card. All seem good alongside some cheap removal to stem the bleeding until you can take control of the game.
Also, what do you all think of Savage Alliance? Damo da Rosa ran a pair in his sideboard for the mirror. It hits most of their drops, plus one of anything bigger with escalate. Not great in other match ups, but something to know it's there.
How often will they really be speed bumps, though? Red has a lot of 'target creature cannot block' effects and relying on your 3 drop to act as a speed bump doesn't seem that reliable unless your removal package can cover the rest.
Savage Alliance seems interesting, but we really need an answer to Hazoret.
The solutions to Ramunap Red really can't be blocking creatures. The deck plays 8-12 falter effects. The strategy has to be killing their creatures, and it has to be at instant speed because they also have 13-16 creatures with innate haste and 0-4 Cartouches that give haste. This is why I think you have to 1-for-1 the creatures on the first couple turns with things like Magma Spray and Shock, and possibly Blazing Volley, and then dump Kozilek's Return (I wouldn't bother with Savage Alliance when you have this instead) turn 3 or turn 4 after they've cast hasty attackers.
And then game 2 you have to change up the whole plan because they try to go midrange with Glorybringers and Chandra. This is when Hour of Devastation should come in.
Game 1, Hazoret needs to be countered, that's really the only solution.
The solutions to Ramunap Red really can't be blocking creatures. The deck plays 8-12 falter effects. The strategy has to be killing their creatures, and it has to be at instant speed because they also have 13-16 creatures with innate haste and 0-4 Cartouches that give haste. This is why I think you have to 1-for-1 the creatures on the first couple turns with things like Magma Spray and Shock, and possibly Blazing Volley, and then dump Kozilek's Return (I wouldn't bother with Savage Alliance when you have this instead) turn 3 or turn 4 after they've cast hasty attackers.
And then game 2 you have to change up the whole plan because they try to go midrange with Glorybringers and Chandra. This is when Hour of Devastation should come in.
Game 1, Hazoret needs to be countered, that's really the only solution.
The problem with this is that we have to load up on cheap removals and reduce card draw and counter which will make this deck really weak against the rest of the field.
It depends on what the rest of the field is. Right now it's aggro everywhere. UW Monument, Zombies, Ramunap Red, BG Constrictor. Things like Kozilek's Return and Magma Spray are decent to great against all of those decks. Even Mardu Vehicles relies on small creatures to crew the vehicles. The only place I see a significant weakness would be against decks that are ramping to Ulamog, but they should be a very tiny part of the metagame right now since they fold to RR. later on, if RR becomes a smaller part of the metagame, it would be reasonable to back off from this strategy.
Essence Extraction is perfect removal against RE as it nukes early game beats + gives that extra life-gain padding. Strong sideboard choice.
Fatal Push is relevant enough, and scales well enough, to MB/SB split, or just straight MB. Cheap, cheap removal.
Dark Intimations is a bomb in its own right: carves up opponents creatures (hits indestructible) plus shaves their hand, while cantripping and restoring one of those trades you made earlier. But it also sets up God-Pharaoh for a back-to-back 7 and 7 to face. Dealing 14 damage in two turns with GP is absurd.
Unsubstanciate is huge for slowing down the game. Big tempo disruption.
Hell, Censor is a good CS in this matchup.
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I don't know if Jeskai is the way to go, but I absolutely believe that if you want to win Monored, you need Authority of the Consuls, and maybe Blessed Alliance. Fumigate is too slow.
Also maybe Crumble to Dust if you intend to keep the long game plan.
It's a mix of "They come out of the gates too fast", "They are more sweeper resilient then one would expect", and "Even if we stabilize with 6-8 life, they can just burn us out".
There are advantages to both Kozilek's Return and Sweltering Suns. Instant speed helps when it comes to haste, and being able to leave mana up to counter Hazoret may be more important than sweeping what's already on the battlefield. However, Sweltering Suns isn't a dead card against the mirror, since you can cycle it.
As an aside, adding in Kozilek's Return again makes me ask if it's worth trying to fit a couple Elder Deep-Fiends in the deck. It's Abrade-proof, lets us respond to an Abrade against Gearhulk, and can trigger Kozilek's Return out of the graveyard which will board-wipe them except for Hazoret.
I don't really like any of these ideas. I think this makes your mana-base too unreliable. You need the early game to be very reliable against mono-red. You don't have time to wait to get the right colored mana. I think it's better to base your early game on killing their early stuff as fast as it drops, via Magma Spray. I would even consider the option of 4x Shock in the sideboard. The deck gets out of control if you give them too many turns to keep dropping stuff and attacking. I also don't think Thing in the Ice or the flash alternative are good enough. Typically they can just Shock it after blocks to remove it.
You have to beat this matchup. It's going to be a huge part of the metagame in the near future. If you give up beating mono-red, you give up doing better than 50-50 on the day. If you're preparing for Game Day this upcoming weekend, this is the deck you want to build against.
I'm going to go back up to 4x Disallow. A common place for the game state to be is that we've successfully wiped their board, but we're at low enough life total that a couple Ramunap Ruins uses will finish us off. Disallow is the only thing that can save you in that case.
Decks that ramp to Ulamog should be non-existent this weekend. They are too slow against mono-red. I wouldn't waste any sideboard slots on things like Summary Dismissal.
Here's my deck for this weekend. I'm shifting both the main-deck and the sideboard hard against mono-red, while trying still to have game against other decks in the format.
1x Endless Sands
9x Island
3x Mountain
4x Spirebluff Canal
4x Wandering Fumarole
4x Torrential Gearhulk
4x Abrade
4x Censor
4x Disallow
2x Glimmer of Genius
2x Harnessed Lightning
2x Hieroglyphic Illumination
4x Kozilek's Return
4x Magma Spray
2x Essence Scatter
1x Pull from Tomorrow
2x Supreme Will
2x Elder Deep-Fiend
4x Hour of Devastation
2x Incendiary Flow
4x Shock
2x Sweltering Suns
Notes about the sideboard:
- Hour of Devastation is basically anti-Gideon stuff in the event that you face Mardu Vehicles. I don't think it's a good choices for Monument or Zombies. Bring in smaller stuff like Sweltering Suns, Shock, and Incendiary Flow for those decks.
- Elder Deep-Fiend is anti-Abrade tech (as is the Endless Sands in the main deck). It's meant to only ever be cast for UU via Gearhulk.
- By Force is basically there because I haven't put anything else in its place. I think with Abrade we have enough already against Artifact-based decks like Vehicles. Not really sure what I would put in its place, though.
Personally, I don't think Kozilek's Return is big enough unless you want to include an Eldrazi. Sweltering Suns in the maindeck and Hour of Devastation in the side seems the most reasonable set of sweepers. I also like the idea of Chandra, Flamecaller as it really adds everything this deck wants.
Torrential Gearhulk is still what makes this deck playable, in my opinion. You may get one Abraded, but whatever you are flashing back should make up for it. Another option is looking seriously at bringing back Goblin Dark-Dwellers to flash back the sweepers.
I think Chandra, Torch of Defiance is too slow vs the troublesome decks, at least if you aren't already ahead. Using her as spot removal is very inefficient and she has to survive a turn to be useful ramp. A deck like Ramunap is going to ignore her and finish you off...
I think the third color is a reasonable consideration. I'd also like to look at whether or not black has enough sweepers to make it as the second color to U. It may not, but with both 3- and 4-mana sweepers, it could have potential to be a bit faster than red... Maybe...
I think it's right to maindeck Sweltering Suns at this point. Kozilek's Return isn't as versatile as you point out. Hour should remain somewhere in the 75.
I like the idea of looking for sideboard possibilities. I see a lot more in black and white, though. Adding in lifegain or more efficient sweepers looks attractive to me. I think a lot of things are worth looking at if red is going to be this much of the metagame...
1/3 of the players on day 2 were on this. I don't think you can ignore the match-up. Not to say it will be automatic to improve, but you can't write off 1/3 of the competitive meta and expect to do well...
In my opinion, it's their ability to get in so fast. In games where you get a turn 5 to cast Hour of Devastation, you are actually in great shape. If you haven't found a sweeper by then, scoop and move to game two where you can get faster and increase your early interaction.
I'm not sure that's the right Chandra, though. She does nothing for our board state turn 4 and most Ramunap Red decks can just ignore her and win. I like the idea of shifting to more sweepers as the starting point. Honestly, I wish good old Pyroclasm was available right now...
This was my view until I remembered that Kozilek's Return is an instant. The advantages of it being an instant are HUGE in this deck.
- can be flashed back with Gearhulk, can't do that with Sweltering Suns
- Lets you leave mana up for countering if they play Hazoret before attacking.
- There is so much haste in that deck that they can still get damage in the turn after you play Sweltering Suns. This kills everything in the deck that has haste except for Hazoret.
- Potentially makes them waste Cartouche of Zeal if you play in response.
I might see splitting 2/2 between them if you're concerned about dead cards against a control mirror. It may be the better choice once the format settles down, but right now I can't see it being a dead card in this meta.
I think the bigger issue is that Kozilek's Return won't always kill Zombies... The pump cards in Zombies will have you fighting 3/3s (or larger) much of the time. Yes, you may up your game against Red, but at a cost against other decks. Sweltering Suns being a sorcery does make it less attractive, but the three damage makes it more versatile against the current meta.
If someone tests it alot, it may be worth noting how many times the extra damage is needed... On paper, it seems important.
1.) Sweltering Suns I feel is a good balance between "Strong enough to kill zombies" and "Isn't too slow vs. Ramunap Red". K-Return is good but I do think it obligates you to play EDF which is a bit too top-heavy for my liking. Hour of Devastation is great, but likely best in the board.
2.) As was mentioned, white is probably the best option for stopping the deck, via blessed alliance and authority of the consuls just making the kill that much harder. However the call for black with Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh is pretty powerful since he's just absurd if you get to him, and collective brutality can also buy time by killing a dude and draining for 2. Crumble to Dust on their ruins also seems great because it deprives them of their best way to finish against bigger decks.
3.) Absolutely out of the question. While the meta WILL adapt to a fair red deck (It doesn't do any unfair things like, say, copycat or marvel did - it just has a very fast start and good reach) it does need to adapt. Anyone who thinks they can just win against any other deck and punt this one matchup is cruising for a very painful series of X-3 drops.
I do think that once the meta does start to come to terms with the deck and its play decreases to a normal stable amount (I expect 15-20% of the meta) we can cut out some of the more dedicated hate cards for general hate that also mucks with them. But at least for the next 3-4 weeks we need to be very prepared to see this deck almost every round.
Currently Playing:
GBStandard - Golgari Safari MidrangeBG
RBWModern - Mardu PyromancerWBR
RLegacy - Good Old Fashioned BurnR
Clan Contest 3 Mafia - Mafia Co-MVP
While I agree with this, nothing I've seen thus far has convinced me that this match-up can actually be improved beyond roughly 30-70 odds. I certainly don't think it can be done without access to kozilek's returns and sweltering suns, along with full playsets of magma sprays and harness lightnings, and some number of abrades. I worry that the changes that would be necessary to make this matchup winnable will cripple us versus every other matchup.
The PT just ended yesterday. I am a firm believer that any and every deck, no matter how broken, can be beaten and beaten soundly with the right application of hate. We just need to figure out what that hate is and how best to apply it.
Currently Playing:
GBStandard - Golgari Safari MidrangeBG
RBWModern - Mardu PyromancerWBR
RLegacy - Good Old Fashioned BurnR
Clan Contest 3 Mafia - Mafia Co-MVP
I think if you consider it only as a play when you have Gearhulk already on the battlefield, it's not top-heavy at all, just very conditional. Combined with a playset of Kozilek's Return, it's basically like having a card that costs UU and says "Counter target spell that would target your Gearhulk, tap 4 permanents, and deal 5 damage to other creatures" which is pretty damned good. I'm gonna try it.
Most of those cards are good against a large portion of the remainder of the metagame (Monument & Zombies).
I do hope you are right perhaps I am getting ahead of myself.
Could you elaborate more on the options for using black?
I think the success of Ramunap Red is going to force this deck to adopt some midrange elements as the metagame shifts. I find when I play vs Red, I side into something much lower curve, ditching most of the counters as 'too slow'. I still don't believe that UR Control can't work, just that it may not be the strongest right now in an Aggor-heavy meta.
Is it worth 'pre-boarding' a package against aggro and transitioning to a more controlling deck after Game 1?
Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh and Chandra, Flamecaller are two very different cards. They don't necessarily fill the same role, and do not have a lot of overlap. The "card advantage" they accrue is true only in the vaguest of terms. They aren't meant for CA. That's okay.
That said - in an overall sense - Nicol Bolas is a significantly better Planeswalker in most decks, including most (if not all) versions of this deck, than Chandra, Flamecaller.
You've said that one "deserves to lose" if NB is resolved and one does not have the board state to ignore/kill, but that is a sharp oversimplification of each individual matchup, and MTG as a card game in general. Not even in a sweeping sense is your statement accurate. If anything, that would apply to Chandra, Flamecaller, who's 3/1 haste tokens are far more dependent on board state than NBs +2, +1, and -4.
While I can't and won't speak for your meta, that doesn't seem like a terrible play. Load up on cheap kill spells and sweepers and burn and have nicol bolas or Kalitas or even sphinx of the last word as a finisher, then if they're not on hyper-aggro you bring in the counters and gearhulks?
Green does give us some lifegain, it also gives us a hexproof beater in Lumbering Falls plus a lot of surety in hitting land drops with Attune with Aether. And if you want to be SUPER tech, there's Void Grafter that can be used to countercall abrade on gearhulk.
And then there's white, which gives us, as stated already, Authority of the Consuls and Blessed Alliance which can each be backbreaking in their own way.
We will have to test and tech and find out what third color does the best.
Currently Playing:
GBStandard - Golgari Safari MidrangeBG
RBWModern - Mardu PyromancerWBR
RLegacy - Good Old Fashioned BurnR
Clan Contest 3 Mafia - Mafia Co-MVP
Also, what do you all think of Savage Alliance? Damo da Rosa ran a pair in his sideboard for the mirror. It hits most of their drops, plus one of anything bigger with escalate. Not great in other match ups, but something to know it's there.
How often will they really be speed bumps, though? Red has a lot of 'target creature cannot block' effects and relying on your 3 drop to act as a speed bump doesn't seem that reliable unless your removal package can cover the rest.
Savage Alliance seems interesting, but we really need an answer to Hazoret.
And then game 2 you have to change up the whole plan because they try to go midrange with Glorybringers and Chandra. This is when Hour of Devastation should come in.
Game 1, Hazoret needs to be countered, that's really the only solution.
Fatal Push is relevant enough, and scales well enough, to MB/SB split, or just straight MB. Cheap, cheap removal.
Dark Intimations is a bomb in its own right: carves up opponents creatures (hits indestructible) plus shaves their hand, while cantripping and restoring one of those trades you made earlier. But it also sets up God-Pharaoh for a back-to-back 7 and 7 to face. Dealing 14 damage in two turns with GP is absurd.
Unsubstanciate is huge for slowing down the game. Big tempo disruption.
Hell, Censor is a good CS in this matchup.