Right, the ratio of gas to blanks remains constant over a large sample size, blah blah blah.
Let me try this another way.
In scenario 1, you do not use the +2. Now, they get to draw and use the three cards you did not exile, but they cannot use the three cards left on top of their library at the end of the game.
In scenario 2, you use the +2. Now they draw these three cards and have them in their hand. However, they do not get to draw the three cards you exiled.
What is the difference in potential card quality among the two groups of three cards?
The chance of them drawing any given card goes down in reflection to the chance that ashiok has to exile it.
With no library manipulation, the next card the opponent draws has an equal chance of being each of the N cards left in the library.
Exiling one card face up before drawing is equivalent to picking two cards at random from the same N cards, one to draw and one to reveal and never draw: cards remain, on average, as good as before but both players know one of the cards that the milled player is not going to draw.
Whether this information helps either player is debatable; I think it's mostly a personality test (do you remember more strongly being lucky or unlucky?).
Some matchup might be asymmetrical (e.g. UB Ashiok somehow changing priorities after exiling UW control's singleton threats like Elixir of Immortality or Aetherling, while UW control doesn't learn anything particularly useful), but discussing rare special cases, and mostly ones that are already lucky for the Ashiok player, isn't very productive.
There's a slight statistical advantage for the Ashiok player: he can opt to stop exiling cards if the previously exiled cards are good, and exile more if they are bad. However, trying to deck the opponent or to find useful cards to play are usually more pressing concerns.
Being sometimes able to steal a card is a net advantage. Good enough to soak damage from an aggro opponent? It depends on the rest of the deck. For example, Returned Phalanx and Nightveil Specter might or might not be big enough.
Sigh. In hindsight, that's correct but only when you recalculate. However, barring deck manipulation or something like an opposing courser of kruphix giving you that information, that notion is completely wrong. Let me put it like this. Let's say I'm playing against aggro and I play tome scour. Let's say I milled out 3 ash zealots. Did I just decrease their attacking power? No I didn't. Yes, their statistical chance of drawing a creature just dropped but only after the fact. Its not so before you did it, when you're actually making the decision. You don't know where the answers are in the deck and there is just as much a chance of them being the card on top (the card they'd normally draw next) as it is to be the 4th card down (the card they'll draw after the +2 with Ashiok). You might get lucky. But you have just as much a chance to be unlucky in that same respect. So let's put it like this. After the fact is irrelevant as its already done. Saying that its worked before and has been nice is not taking into account that at the point that it actually happened, nothing was truly changed in terms of chance. Its like saying "I play tome scour in my mono blue devotion vs UW control and its a boss. I can mill out out all 4 of their supreme verdicts and their elspeth. Then they totally have trouble answering me anymore." But this is ridiculous. Yes, it can happen but if you only draw conclusions after the fact based on a small sample and letting good feeling take over the realistic statistics, you'll end up with skewed thoughts like that. And from a before the fact perspective, the chances are that there was an answer 4 cards down hasn't changed. Maybe I should put it like this.
Without ashiok is first. With ashiok is second. I'm referring to card positions in the deck here.
1/4
2/7
3/10
4/13
5/16
Are the chances to have an answer in card positions 1-5 greater, less than, or equal to the chances of having an answer in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16?
Most decks (even RDW) use deck manipulation now with scrylands.
Regardless... I think most people get "stuck" on the random aspect of Ashiok. Yes. It can just as easily mill away three land as three threats. You can not count Ashiok as the same as "removal" or threat remover. What it does; however, is statistically lower their chance to draw answers later in game. This plays a major role when the game has stalled and you are both in "top decking" situations. The % chance of ashiok milling a threat you need will always be higher than your % chance to draw it (without casting spells to draw additional cards). And that's what makes Ashiok good.
RDW does splash white for chained to the rocks and sideboard fairly often and will occasionally see Ashiok do that... but in the end, it doesn't change anything. It just lets them change their mindset. Instead of leaving the top card for a scry and depending on it, you just know that you're not depending on it. If you're scrying something away, it makes no difference.
As for the statistics side, it is more common to mill away 3 threats than 3 lands. That's because the typical deck has less than 30 lands. If it was a 20 lands deck, the chances would gravitate more towards 2 nonland cards and 1 lands. However, that does absolutely nothing to change the chances of drawing threats overall. Supposing there's no search type digging, you will average hitting a number of lands and threats proportionate to their ratios in the deck. Unless you're counting 12 turns out when the chance to draw a threat without ashiok (the average ratio of threats to non-threats in the deck) is higher than the chance to draw a threat with ashiok (which is zero because there aren't any cards left to draw). But that's a ridiculous notion. Like I said before with answers, the chances of drawing threats in card positions 1-5 is theoretically the same overall as the chances of having threats in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16. If you slaughter games out a 4 of a threat card, you've changed the distribution in a sure way. If you mill with ashiok, sometimes the threat ratio will go up. Sometimes it'll go down. And sometimes it'll stay the same. And at the end of the day, it'll balance out to zero. No change. And if you're topdecking with a planeswalker vs an aggro player that's topdecking with little to nothing, you've already won the game unless your life is at a critical state. The idea that it statistically lowers their chances to draw an answer or threat is bogus. Run the math. It'll be exactly zero change barring the milled out scenario, not even 0.00000001% off. Exactly zero change. If half of your premise is based on that faulty math (or common sense. I'm not going to work out those numbers by hand but it doesn't take rocket science to tell that if no one's cheating, the chances to have threats in the top 5 card positions vs 5 random card positions or every fourth card down for the same number of turns is exactly the same. The only thing it does change for you is your chance to "have another threat or blocker" on account of being able to steal some. But it doesn't change the chances for your opponent. Even with scry, it doesn't change anything. Knowing or being able to tuck... The point of being able to tuck a card is so that you know you won't draw it next turn. If Ashiok does a +2, the same effect would be achieved anyway. So it doesn't even affect things from that point of view.) So what you're left with is saying that Ashiok is good because it wins the game when you've won the game.
Ps, the only time when Ashiok reduces the chance of them drawing a threat is when they aren't aggro and have a courser of kruphix in play. In other words, if you see a creature or a threat on top, you can +2 and know that they at they lose that guarantee of having that threat. Its like "I don't like that card. Go draw something else. You might get a threat. You might not.". And that's strictly because whether they will draw a threat or not next turn is not a randomization. It is a solid, known fact to both players. And thus randomization can just not be used when their chances are 0% but will be used when their chances are 100%. Knowing the difference makes the randomization matter.
I think Ashiok is a really good PW but to see play, it has to be in winning decks. Frostburn was rarely used even in FNM until devotion. Same with rats, nightveil, etc. Ashiok is another threat the other player has to account for and since RDW isn't the primary deck in this format, Ashiok can be a very useful card.
In my BUG deck, Ashiok is answered, or Kiora is answered but rarely are both answered. Usually Kiora wins the game. Ashiok helps and is far more useful with Courser in several decks now and the scry lands. I still see plenty of people forget to shuffle that great scry card to the bottom and even when they do, it's still a victory. Good cards on the bottom are always a victory.
Even Jeff Hoogland has recently cut the card from his BUG lists citing it as simply being too high variance and he's been championing Ashiok for quite some time now.
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After the PTQ this weekend, I am sticking to my opinions and keeping Ashiok around. It's just too important for my variant of MBD to take out given the current meta.
With the exception of one game (in which I went on to win the match) I never lost when I played Ashiok. In fact ashiok out right won me two games.
I still had an abysmal finish though... started 2-0 and ended up having mana/draw issues and ending 3-3 drop. But ashiok was not the problem. Had Ashiok been any other card, my record would have been worse.
As an aggro player, I love when my opponent plays ashiok. I've never lost when my opponent has played ashiok. Especially with the deck I'm playing recently which is a more token based version, my opponent upped ashiok like 5 times only to get access to an experiment one.
It's a terrible card in the mainboard, but is really good against certain midrange decks. Everyone should keep playing this card in the main so I can keep on get free wins!!!
Seriously though. When this card came out I thought it was bad. Now I think it's worse than bad and there are a lot better things you can do with 3 mana (hero's downfall, nightveil spector, underworld connections, herald of torment)
It's really unforunate, this card had a lot of potential, but 2 of the 3 abilities are useless and the negative ability is marginal at best.
As an aggro player, I love when my opponent plays ashiok. I've never lost when my opponent has played ashiok. Especially with the deck I'm playing recently which is a more token based version, my opponent upped ashiok like 5 times only to get access to an experiment one.
It's a terrible card in the mainboard, but is really good against certain midrange decks. Everyone should keep playing this card in the main so I can keep on get free wins!!!
Seriously though. When this card came out I thought it was bad. Now I think it's worse than bad and there are a lot better things you can do with 3 mana (hero's downfall, nightveil spector, underworld connections, herald of torment)
It's really unforunate, this card had a lot of potential, but 2 of the 3 abilities are useless and the negative ability is marginal at best.
I have had the exact opposite experience. Every time I drop ashiok, I win. Even against aggro it has its uses.
When this card came out I thought it was bad too. But after extensive play testing I've found that is non-replaceable.
What most people forget... sometimes the best thing you can do with ashiok is +2 it every turn and nothing else. That's actually (contrary to popular belief on these forums) not a bad thing.
The purpose of Ashiok is to give you options. Ever creature card you mill becomes an extension of your hand (if they don't focus on ashiok). This gives you more options. More options in magic is ALWAYS good. Additionally it also shows you more about their deck (what cards are remaining, etc.) which allows you to make more concise statistical decisions.
A lot of players incorrectly attack ashiok in aggro decks. If ashiok doesn't play a card or take damage, then essentially it is a 3 mana mill 3*X where X is how many turns you have to live. Divination is probably the best card to compare to ashiok, let's compare.
Ashiok mills for 3 every turn, if it reveals a creature, you can minus ashiok next turn, if ashiok isn't attacked to play that card. If you miss, which is also very likely, then you have to wait an additional turn to see if you can get lucky next time. So you've basically exchanged a 3 mana card for one of your opponents 1-5 mana cards. it takes at least 2 turns to use this ability and otherwise is ignorable. This isn't a terrible effect, but it's random, requires your opponents to make mistakes and doesn't end up producing something very powerful.
Divination. Draw 2 cards. It's an immediate 2 for 1 effect. If will help you get two of your own cards and helps you cycle through your deck faster so you can draw more lands (if control). It takes no setup time and you can use the cards immediately. Also, it's a great late game draw, since it lets you dig even deeper into your own deck.
From a results perspective, 60% of u/w decks on MTGO play about 2 divination in the main. 20% of esper midrange decks play about 2 ashiok in the sideboard.
It's a very niche card (good against midrange creature decks). Personally I'd rather splash green for kiora so I can make 9/9 tokens in the same niche.
I have literally played my opponents white weenies deck against him using ashiok.
Killed his first creature and dropped ashiok knowing that white weenie doesn't have haste. flipped over his first strikers to block his own guys. then started playing solders of pantheons etc from the top of his deck. He couldn't hurt ashiok because his own creatures were in the way then it snowballed from there.
I even beat a R/W burn deck because it ignored ashiok (although to be fair Jace did the heavy lifting ulti-ing twice) and I had to use his pheonixs to block for me whille I sat at 1 life with a hand of counter spells. Then I exiled all their pheonixs with his ulti.
A lot of players incorrectly attack ashiok in aggro decks. If ashiok doesn't play a card or take damage, then essentially it is a 3 mana mill 3*X where X is how many turns you have to live. Divination is probably the best card to compare to ashiok, let's compare.
Ashiok mills for 3 every turn, if it reveals a creature, you can minus ashiok next turn, if ashiok isn't attacked to play that card. If you miss, which is also very likely, then you have to wait an additional turn to see if you can get lucky next time. So you've basically exchanged a 3 mana card for one of your opponents 1-5 mana cards. it takes at least 2 turns to use this ability and otherwise is ignorable. This isn't a terrible effect, but it's random, requires your opponents to make mistakes and doesn't end up producing something very powerful.
Divination. Draw 2 cards. It's an immediate 2 for 1 effect. If will help you get two of your own cards and helps you cycle through your deck faster so you can draw more lands (if control). It takes no setup time and you can use the cards immediately. Also, it's a great late game draw, since it lets you dig even deeper into your own deck.
From a results perspective, 60% of u/w decks on MTGO play about 2 divination in the main. 20% of esper midrange decks play about 2 ashiok in the sideboard.
It's a very niche card (good against midrange creature decks). Personally I'd rather splash green for kiora so I can make 9/9 tokens in the same niche.
This basically sums up why no body loves Ashiok.. no one in the history of magic has ever liked mill effects. Because people for whatever reason feel like its too "random" despite the fact that, statistically, you have a greater chance of milling a creature than that player has at drawing it.
Although I understand why people dislike him, I can not remove him from my MBD list. He plays too crucial role in the current meta.
Lol. Wake up and smell the roses because plenty of people like mill effects, me being one of them... and there are a lot of people who simply love it to death. Good, however, is a lot more rare. Most of the mill cards in standard are simply weak. Jace MA is fine. Ashiok is ok as a mill card too because when coddled, it will provide some defense and against control, it helps overwork the cards normally directed at Jace MA. But the rest? Mind grind, Phenax, Mirko Vosk, Tome scour, codex shredder, psychic spiral, breaking // entering? I just don't see things compelling enough to play mill aside slapping the two planeswalkers into a controllish deck. That being said, the dislike of mill currently may well be centered just as much on the fact that a majority of the mill cards aren't even mildly competitive. But you're not using Ashiok for mill so that doesn't apply to you. However, the "randomness" doesn't really apply so heavily to you either. Assuming that Ashiok will hit something of use does not make it useful. The reason is because you act as though stabilization is a foregone conclusion. So if you can slow them significantly, you'll make a big gain with Ashiok and win the day. But shouldn't you have won anyway if you could slow them significantly? And what kind of compromises did you make to your mana base to support Ashiok? I imagine it'd be more than just some temple of deceit.
Is it just me, or the fact that he exiles card instead of simply feeding the graveyard is a great asset for Ashiok?
In the current Standard landscape, graveyard manipulation is not a big deal. But in the long run, Ashiok is a mill treat that is not afraid of all the Emrakul of this world.
I see him live a long life beyond Standard and, who know, maybe the next core set will feature some graveyard manipulation that helps legitimize Ashiok.
I like Ashiok a lot. Coming in T3 and going up to 5 loyalty is a big deal. He won't win you games that you're losing, because he'll come in and die; that's one strike against him. He'll win-more games that you are already winning, which is true for a lot of cards. In stalls where you're matched up, though, he puts a lot of pressure on the opponent-- when you're both looking for that answer that will break the board state and give one of you the advantage, he is not only milling (you are not likely to win by milling someone out with Ashiok unless you're running Phenax.dec) but occasionally scooping up their dudes onto your board. Blunt theirs, sharpen yours. I don't think the shell exists for him to be good in current Standard, but I do think that kind of shell has a shot at competitive play during Ashiok's standard lifetime and I am sure he'd be in it.
Or maybe it's just wistful thinking because I've opened three of him. Who knows?
I like Ashiok a lot. Coming in T3 and going up to 5 loyalty is a big deal. He won't win you games that you're losing, because he'll come in and die; that's one strike against him. He'll win-more games that you are already winning, which is true for a lot of cards. In stalls where you're matched up, though, he puts a lot of pressure on the opponent-- when you're both looking for that answer that will break the board state and give one of you the advantage, he is not only milling (you are not likely to win by milling someone out with Ashiok unless you're running Phenax.dec) but occasionally scooping up their dudes onto your board. Blunt theirs, sharpen yours. I don't think the shell exists for him to be good in current Standard, but I do think that kind of shell has a shot at competitive play during Ashiok's standard lifetime and I am sure he'd be in it.
Or maybe it's just wistful thinking because I've opened three of him. Who knows?
Based on my play testing, I've found that the MBD shell actually supports ashiok quite nicely. Having access to 6+ 2 CMC removal spells main board with another 2 side, allows the shell to insure that your opponent has no creatures the turn you drop ashiok.
I like Ashiok a lot. Coming in T3 and going up to 5 loyalty is a big deal. He won't win you games that you're losing, because he'll come in and die; that's one strike against him. He'll win-more games that you are already winning, which is true for a lot of cards. In stalls where you're matched up, though, he puts a lot of pressure on the opponent-- when you're both looking for that answer that will break the board state and give one of you the advantage, he is not only milling (you are not likely to win by milling someone out with Ashiok unless you're running Phenax.dec) but occasionally scooping up their dudes onto your board. Blunt theirs, sharpen yours. I don't think the shell exists for him to be good in current Standard, but I do think that kind of shell has a shot at competitive play during Ashiok's standard lifetime and I am sure he'd be in it.
Or maybe it's just wistful thinking because I've opened three of him. Who knows?
Based on my play testing, I've found that the MBD shell actually supports ashiok quite nicely. Having access to 6+ 2 CMC removal spells main board with another 2 side, allows the shell to insure that your opponent has no creatures the turn you drop ashiok.
To me, it sounds like you can put any kind of card (Underworld Connections, Liliana of the Dark Realms, etc.) in that slot because its the removal spells that are making him "playable" in your mind. Difference is, other cards can actually impact the game state by drawing cards, removal of a creature in play, etc. while the terrible Ashiok get's ignored or killed easily if you don't have said removal spells to "set him up".
I like Ashiok a lot. Coming in T3 and going up to 5 loyalty is a big deal. He won't win you games that you're losing, because he'll come in and die; that's one strike against him. He'll win-more games that you are already winning, which is true for a lot of cards. In stalls where you're matched up, though, he puts a lot of pressure on the opponent-- when you're both looking for that answer that will break the board state and give one of you the advantage, he is not only milling (you are not likely to win by milling someone out with Ashiok unless you're running Phenax.dec) but occasionally scooping up their dudes onto your board. Blunt theirs, sharpen yours. I don't think the shell exists for him to be good in current Standard, but I do think that kind of shell has a shot at competitive play during Ashiok's standard lifetime and I am sure he'd be in it.
Or maybe it's just wistful thinking because I've opened three of him. Who knows?
Based on my play testing, I've found that the MBD shell actually supports ashiok quite nicely. Having access to 6+ 2 CMC removal spells main board with another 2 side, allows the shell to insure that your opponent has no creatures the turn you drop ashiok.
To me, it sounds like you can put any kind of card (Underworld Connections, Liliana of the Dark Realms, etc.) in that slot because its the removal spells that are making him "playable" in your mind. Difference is, other cards can actually impact the game state by drawing cards, removal of a creature in play, etc. while the terrible Ashiok get's ignored or killed easily if you don't have said removal spells to "set him up".
Ashiok is far superior to Underworld Connections though in several matchups, including GR Monsters, MUD, RDW, Boros Burn, and other fast paced aggro decks. While at the same time it is good vs both the mirror and control (match up in which connections excels in)
Control can't ignore him, as the -10 is usually backbreaking enough to end the game, and +2 per turn adds up fast. The format certainly has answers to the card, but Ashiok demands one quickly.
Aggro kinda needs to kill him, or he vomits out a fair number of creatures. They usually aren't overly good creatures, but they slow down aggro somewhat.
The issue with the card is that tapping out turn 3 for a card that has no board impact until turn 4 is something no UBx deck can afford to do except UBR (turn 2 Mortars or Dreadbore something, turn 3 Ashiok) and Ashiok is good but not good enough to make up for the fact that UBR is terrible in this meta.
Control can't ignore him, as the -10 is usually backbreaking enough to end the game, and +2 per turn adds up fast. The format certainly has answers to the card, but Ashiok demands one quickly.
Aggro kinda needs to kill him, or he vomits out a fair number of creatures. They usually aren't overly good creatures, but they slow down aggro somewhat.
The issue with the card is that tapping out turn 3 for a card that has no board impact until turn 4 is something no UBx deck can afford to do except UBR (turn 2 Mortars or Dreadbore something, turn 3 Ashiok) and Ashiok is good but not good enough to make up for the fact that UBR is terrible in this meta.
That is my opinion. Ashiok is good the best shell for them (UBx control) is not. I am patiently waiting to see if any of the coming sets will give him what he needs to shine. In many ways he parallels pack rat, deso deamon and nightviel spector were bad until rotation and a new shell for them to shine emerged. It might happen again keep your eye out. I feel turn 1 thoughsieze, turn two kill their first play turn three ashiok is a strong play. It just that mono black would rather nightviel spector or underworld connections for more direct card advantage. It requires a blue shell looking to use spells to draw cards and not perminates.
In other words, a shell that makes stabilizing its main priority and does it well enough to accommodate a delayed type of defense and advantage. I'll buy that to a degree. But more than anything else, for the to be feasible, black would have to have a hard cmc 4-5 board wipe, I think.
In other words, a shell that makes stabilizing its main priority and does it well enough to accommodate a delayed type of defense and advantage. I'll buy that to a degree. But more than anything else, for the to be feasible, black would have to have a hard cmc 4-5 board wipe, I think.
Ashiok can defend you pretty well in many situations. Just not by him/herself.
If you +2 him and hit Forest, Advent of the Wurm, Voice of Resurgence (not a great flip), then your turn 4 you are dropping a Voice unless they hit Ashiok for at least 3 damage. The Voice will trade with something even if the token is just a chump blocker, and this should buy you time to get Ashiok +2ing again.
Turn 3 Ashiok, turn 4 hard wipe would be a backbreaking play against almost all aggro decks.
+2 Ashiok and then aggro ignores it, proceeding to pound you in the face. Possibly dropping a blocker the turn after in a case when they know what'll be dropped is really not all that impressive. When aggro often kills turn 4-5, Ashiok can often enough be ignored, especially on the play. Ashiok can defend you... if you're going to stabilize without it or going to be on the edge of stabilizing without it. It stabilizes less than a nightveil specter which we know isn't the most groundbreaking stabilizing agent in the world.
people do underestimate this dude. I played two when i played BUG control. i dont understand it when people say if he doesnt hit for a few turns then they kill him he does nothing. I have gotten multiple detention spheres, downfalls, supreme verdicts, and counterspells away from my opponents with this guy, and when you have all those cards exiled by him, they will NEVER get those cards again. NEVER. if you count the spells they cast, even getting one or two detention spheres off the top is useful information. all in all, he deprives them of their spells, which, in my opinion, is pretty good.
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The chance of them drawing any given card goes down in reflection to the chance that ashiok has to exile it.
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Exiling one card face up before drawing is equivalent to picking two cards at random from the same N cards, one to draw and one to reveal and never draw: cards remain, on average, as good as before but both players know one of the cards that the milled player is not going to draw.
Whether this information helps either player is debatable; I think it's mostly a personality test (do you remember more strongly being lucky or unlucky?).
Some matchup might be asymmetrical (e.g. UB Ashiok somehow changing priorities after exiling UW control's singleton threats like Elixir of Immortality or Aetherling, while UW control doesn't learn anything particularly useful), but discussing rare special cases, and mostly ones that are already lucky for the Ashiok player, isn't very productive.
There's a slight statistical advantage for the Ashiok player: he can opt to stop exiling cards if the previously exiled cards are good, and exile more if they are bad. However, trying to deck the opponent or to find useful cards to play are usually more pressing concerns.
Being sometimes able to steal a card is a net advantage. Good enough to soak damage from an aggro opponent? It depends on the rest of the deck. For example, Returned Phalanx and Nightveil Specter might or might not be big enough.
With the standard land-card ration of 24 to 36, it is correct to say that one third of the deck is mana.
After that, we can more or less assume that one of the other third is juice or victory condition and the remaining third is a facilitator.
With that in mind, Ashiok strip 3 cards at the time. Math wise, on the long run, he is not drawing blanks.
From one game to another, yes, he can easily have crappy go at it.
But, just like in poker, the curves are sound for him.
He will not remove everything, but he's going to provide some answers at a very low cost once he's in play.
RDW does splash white for chained to the rocks and sideboard fairly often and will occasionally see Ashiok do that... but in the end, it doesn't change anything. It just lets them change their mindset. Instead of leaving the top card for a scry and depending on it, you just know that you're not depending on it. If you're scrying something away, it makes no difference.
As for the statistics side, it is more common to mill away 3 threats than 3 lands. That's because the typical deck has less than 30 lands. If it was a 20 lands deck, the chances would gravitate more towards 2 nonland cards and 1 lands. However, that does absolutely nothing to change the chances of drawing threats overall. Supposing there's no search type digging, you will average hitting a number of lands and threats proportionate to their ratios in the deck. Unless you're counting 12 turns out when the chance to draw a threat without ashiok (the average ratio of threats to non-threats in the deck) is higher than the chance to draw a threat with ashiok (which is zero because there aren't any cards left to draw). But that's a ridiculous notion. Like I said before with answers, the chances of drawing threats in card positions 1-5 is theoretically the same overall as the chances of having threats in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16. If you slaughter games out a 4 of a threat card, you've changed the distribution in a sure way. If you mill with ashiok, sometimes the threat ratio will go up. Sometimes it'll go down. And sometimes it'll stay the same. And at the end of the day, it'll balance out to zero. No change. And if you're topdecking with a planeswalker vs an aggro player that's topdecking with little to nothing, you've already won the game unless your life is at a critical state. The idea that it statistically lowers their chances to draw an answer or threat is bogus. Run the math. It'll be exactly zero change barring the milled out scenario, not even 0.00000001% off. Exactly zero change. If half of your premise is based on that faulty math (or common sense. I'm not going to work out those numbers by hand but it doesn't take rocket science to tell that if no one's cheating, the chances to have threats in the top 5 card positions vs 5 random card positions or every fourth card down for the same number of turns is exactly the same. The only thing it does change for you is your chance to "have another threat or blocker" on account of being able to steal some. But it doesn't change the chances for your opponent. Even with scry, it doesn't change anything. Knowing or being able to tuck... The point of being able to tuck a card is so that you know you won't draw it next turn. If Ashiok does a +2, the same effect would be achieved anyway. So it doesn't even affect things from that point of view.) So what you're left with is saying that Ashiok is good because it wins the game when you've won the game.
Ps, the only time when Ashiok reduces the chance of them drawing a threat is when they aren't aggro and have a courser of kruphix in play. In other words, if you see a creature or a threat on top, you can +2 and know that they at they lose that guarantee of having that threat. Its like "I don't like that card. Go draw something else. You might get a threat. You might not.". And that's strictly because whether they will draw a threat or not next turn is not a randomization. It is a solid, known fact to both players. And thus randomization can just not be used when their chances are 0% but will be used when their chances are 100%. Knowing the difference makes the randomization matter.
In my BUG deck, Ashiok is answered, or Kiora is answered but rarely are both answered. Usually Kiora wins the game. Ashiok helps and is far more useful with Courser in several decks now and the scry lands. I still see plenty of people forget to shuffle that great scry card to the bottom and even when they do, it's still a victory. Good cards on the bottom are always a victory.
With the exception of one game (in which I went on to win the match) I never lost when I played Ashiok. In fact ashiok out right won me two games.
I still had an abysmal finish though... started 2-0 and ended up having mana/draw issues and ending 3-3 drop. But ashiok was not the problem. Had Ashiok been any other card, my record would have been worse.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
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Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
It's a terrible card in the mainboard, but is really good against certain midrange decks. Everyone should keep playing this card in the main so I can keep on get free wins!!!
Seriously though. When this card came out I thought it was bad. Now I think it's worse than bad and there are a lot better things you can do with 3 mana (hero's downfall, nightveil spector, underworld connections, herald of torment)
It's really unforunate, this card had a lot of potential, but 2 of the 3 abilities are useless and the negative ability is marginal at best.
I have had the exact opposite experience. Every time I drop ashiok, I win. Even against aggro it has its uses.
When this card came out I thought it was bad too. But after extensive play testing I've found that is non-replaceable.
What most people forget... sometimes the best thing you can do with ashiok is +2 it every turn and nothing else. That's actually (contrary to popular belief on these forums) not a bad thing.
The purpose of Ashiok is to give you options. Ever creature card you mill becomes an extension of your hand (if they don't focus on ashiok). This gives you more options. More options in magic is ALWAYS good. Additionally it also shows you more about their deck (what cards are remaining, etc.) which allows you to make more concise statistical decisions.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
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Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
Ashiok mills for 3 every turn, if it reveals a creature, you can minus ashiok next turn, if ashiok isn't attacked to play that card. If you miss, which is also very likely, then you have to wait an additional turn to see if you can get lucky next time. So you've basically exchanged a 3 mana card for one of your opponents 1-5 mana cards. it takes at least 2 turns to use this ability and otherwise is ignorable. This isn't a terrible effect, but it's random, requires your opponents to make mistakes and doesn't end up producing something very powerful.
Divination. Draw 2 cards. It's an immediate 2 for 1 effect. If will help you get two of your own cards and helps you cycle through your deck faster so you can draw more lands (if control). It takes no setup time and you can use the cards immediately. Also, it's a great late game draw, since it lets you dig even deeper into your own deck.
From a results perspective, 60% of u/w decks on MTGO play about 2 divination in the main. 20% of esper midrange decks play about 2 ashiok in the sideboard.
It's a very niche card (good against midrange creature decks). Personally I'd rather splash green for kiora so I can make 9/9 tokens in the same niche.
Killed his first creature and dropped ashiok knowing that white weenie doesn't have haste. flipped over his first strikers to block his own guys. then started playing solders of pantheons etc from the top of his deck. He couldn't hurt ashiok because his own creatures were in the way then it snowballed from there.
I even beat a R/W burn deck because it ignored ashiok (although to be fair Jace did the heavy lifting ulti-ing twice) and I had to use his pheonixs to block for me whille I sat at 1 life with a hand of counter spells. Then I exiled all their pheonixs with his ulti.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
This basically sums up why no body loves Ashiok.. no one in the history of magic has ever liked mill effects. Because people for whatever reason feel like its too "random" despite the fact that, statistically, you have a greater chance of milling a creature than that player has at drawing it.
Although I understand why people dislike him, I can not remove him from my MBD list. He plays too crucial role in the current meta.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
In the current Standard landscape, graveyard manipulation is not a big deal. But in the long run, Ashiok is a mill treat that is not afraid of all the Emrakul of this world.
I see him live a long life beyond Standard and, who know, maybe the next core set will feature some graveyard manipulation that helps legitimize Ashiok.
Or maybe it's just wistful thinking because I've opened three of him. Who knows?
Based on my play testing, I've found that the MBD shell actually supports ashiok quite nicely. Having access to 6+ 2 CMC removal spells main board with another 2 side, allows the shell to insure that your opponent has no creatures the turn you drop ashiok.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
To me, it sounds like you can put any kind of card (Underworld Connections, Liliana of the Dark Realms, etc.) in that slot because its the removal spells that are making him "playable" in your mind. Difference is, other cards can actually impact the game state by drawing cards, removal of a creature in play, etc. while the terrible Ashiok get's ignored or killed easily if you don't have said removal spells to "set him up".
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Ashiok is far superior to Underworld Connections though in several matchups, including GR Monsters, MUD, RDW, Boros Burn, and other fast paced aggro decks. While at the same time it is good vs both the mirror and control (match up in which connections excels in)
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
Control can't ignore him, as the -10 is usually backbreaking enough to end the game, and +2 per turn adds up fast. The format certainly has answers to the card, but Ashiok demands one quickly.
Aggro kinda needs to kill him, or he vomits out a fair number of creatures. They usually aren't overly good creatures, but they slow down aggro somewhat.
The issue with the card is that tapping out turn 3 for a card that has no board impact until turn 4 is something no UBx deck can afford to do except UBR (turn 2 Mortars or Dreadbore something, turn 3 Ashiok) and Ashiok is good but not good enough to make up for the fact that UBR is terrible in this meta.
That is my opinion. Ashiok is good the best shell for them (UBx control) is not. I am patiently waiting to see if any of the coming sets will give him what he needs to shine. In many ways he parallels pack rat, deso deamon and nightviel spector were bad until rotation and a new shell for them to shine emerged. It might happen again keep your eye out. I feel turn 1 thoughsieze, turn two kill their first play turn three ashiok is a strong play. It just that mono black would rather nightviel spector or underworld connections for more direct card advantage. It requires a blue shell looking to use spells to draw cards and not perminates.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
Ashiok can defend you pretty well in many situations. Just not by him/herself.
If you +2 him and hit Forest, Advent of the Wurm, Voice of Resurgence (not a great flip), then your turn 4 you are dropping a Voice unless they hit Ashiok for at least 3 damage. The Voice will trade with something even if the token is just a chump blocker, and this should buy you time to get Ashiok +2ing again.
Turn 3 Ashiok, turn 4 hard wipe would be a backbreaking play against almost all aggro decks.