Say you're playing a standard Azorius control list, you go to game 2 against monoblack, or esper/orzhov control. Post board, you expect 8-12 disruption spells ala thoughtseize, duress, and sin collector.
Is there any point going first? You are NOT going to resolve your good spells. You are going to lose tempo because you will not curve out. So what's the benefit of going first?
It seems like it's better to just draw more cards since their sideboard plan is to trade 1:1 with you and take your good cards anyway. The only way you'll resolve a good card in the opening turns is if you just have more good cards than they have disruption, or if you topdeck it.
Has anyone tried this yet? I thought of this a few days ago but I haven't played against disruption decks since.
I generated some sample hands from a control deck and most of them seem pretty bad on the play given that 1-2 of those spells are going to get ripped. Example:
2 divination, 1 syncopate, 1 Jace, 3 lands --> Pretty good on the play since you might be able to resolve divination or Jace. They won't rip all of them.
1 Sphinx's, 1 Quicken, 1 Verdict, 4 lands --> Pretty bad on the play since they'll just rip your verdict and play a threat, and eventually rip your rev.
Verdict, Dsphere, Jace, 3 lands 1 muta --> Again, easy rips depending on what their plan is, and you get no oomph from going first since everything other than Jace is reactive.
Dsphere, Divination, 5 lands --> Probably a mulligan against hand disruption decks... the best you can do on the play is resolve divination. Alternatively they just rip your divination and force you to dsphere rat or demon before playing UWC
Verdict, Dsphere, Dsphere, Sphinx's, Dissolve, 2 lands --> Going on the play gives you a better chance to dissolve something, but it will probably have to dissolve one of their thoughtseizes anyway.
One possible nuance is that I'm looking at mainboard hands versus the sideboard. But there's no trump out of the sideboard that you absolutely want to jam. Negate is pretty good to have in hand, but that's about it. Pithing needle might come in too but it's mostly a 5th detention sphere.
my list is running 4 divination 4 revelation and 3 jace AoT even if we are going to top deck mode you are going to hit something that generates CA. dont be afraid to run out a rev or only 2 or 3 early and fill your hand back up.
I was up against a dega hand disruption deck last night. Plays 2x Rakdos' Return and 2-4 thoughtseize (not sure), and then stormbreath/BBOV/DD for threats. The first two are a pain for U/W to remove...
I took g1 because he had tons of dead spells, and lost game 2 because I think I sideboarded wrong. I expected him to always have power on the board so I sided out a Jace, and sided in 2x negate 2x celestial flare (for 3 flares total). In game 3 I put Jace back in and my topdecks felt a lot better.
This matchup is a little different from monoblack or orzhov disruption because you actually need to protect your hand from Rakdos' return via holding counterspells. So just drawing tons of cards was the key to this matchup.
I chose to be on the draw for game 3, and kept a 2 land hand with divination, 2 syncopate, supreme and dsphere. Sure enough in come the rips, but I keep resolving +draw spells and it works out good.
Is it worth having more card draw out of the sideboard? Opportunity...?
Ah. Yeah. Those Machine Head style decks. . . sigh.
I... I'm gonna have to say I agree with you. Drawing vs them is likely the correct move, but its not a popular deck I'd not worry about it to terrible much.
I think the problem vs Monoblack, B/x in general for U/X players is that they can go "Disruption~packrat" and then discarding all non relevant cards to more rats and any deck that runs swamps has that at their disposal.
Ultimately though, I think your analysis is spot on. The extra card is more relevant than and perceived loss of tempo. Since if they do what they WANT to do then you're likely top tdeck the thing you need to win.
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Is there any point going first? You are NOT going to resolve your good spells. You are going to lose tempo because you will not curve out. So what's the benefit of going first?
It seems like it's better to just draw more cards since their sideboard plan is to trade 1:1 with you and take your good cards anyway. The only way you'll resolve a good card in the opening turns is if you just have more good cards than they have disruption, or if you topdeck it.
Has anyone tried this yet? I thought of this a few days ago but I haven't played against disruption decks since.
I generated some sample hands from a control deck and most of them seem pretty bad on the play given that 1-2 of those spells are going to get ripped. Example:
2 divination, 1 syncopate, 1 Jace, 3 lands --> Pretty good on the play since you might be able to resolve divination or Jace. They won't rip all of them.
1 Sphinx's, 1 Quicken, 1 Verdict, 4 lands --> Pretty bad on the play since they'll just rip your verdict and play a threat, and eventually rip your rev.
Verdict, Dsphere, Jace, 3 lands 1 muta --> Again, easy rips depending on what their plan is, and you get no oomph from going first since everything other than Jace is reactive.
Dsphere, Divination, 5 lands --> Probably a mulligan against hand disruption decks... the best you can do on the play is resolve divination. Alternatively they just rip your divination and force you to dsphere rat or demon before playing UWC
Verdict, Dsphere, Dsphere, Sphinx's, Dissolve, 2 lands --> Going on the play gives you a better chance to dissolve something, but it will probably have to dissolve one of their thoughtseizes anyway.
One possible nuance is that I'm looking at mainboard hands versus the sideboard. But there's no trump out of the sideboard that you absolutely want to jam. Negate is pretty good to have in hand, but that's about it. Pithing needle might come in too but it's mostly a 5th detention sphere.
I took g1 because he had tons of dead spells, and lost game 2 because I think I sideboarded wrong. I expected him to always have power on the board so I sided out a Jace, and sided in 2x negate 2x celestial flare (for 3 flares total). In game 3 I put Jace back in and my topdecks felt a lot better.
This matchup is a little different from monoblack or orzhov disruption because you actually need to protect your hand from Rakdos' return via holding counterspells. So just drawing tons of cards was the key to this matchup.
I chose to be on the draw for game 3, and kept a 2 land hand with divination, 2 syncopate, supreme and dsphere. Sure enough in come the rips, but I keep resolving +draw spells and it works out good.
Is it worth having more card draw out of the sideboard? Opportunity...?
I... I'm gonna have to say I agree with you. Drawing vs them is likely the correct move, but its not a popular deck I'd not worry about it to terrible much.
I think the problem vs Monoblack, B/x in general for U/X players is that they can go "Disruption~packrat" and then discarding all non relevant cards to more rats and any deck that runs swamps has that at their disposal.
Ultimately though, I think your analysis is spot on. The extra card is more relevant than and perceived loss of tempo. Since if they do what they WANT to do then you're likely top tdeck the thing you need to win.