Negate is better in a top-deck situation, no doubt. Let's look at some other aspects.
Negate is more mana-efficient if you want to hinder your opponent from playing a spell by either:
A) Ripping it from their hand
B) Letting them play it, but countering it
In case A, they spent 0 mana and you spend 1 mana. In case B, they spent X mana and you spent 2 mana. If X > 2, Negate is more mana-efficient.
However, I'm gonna bring the other argument: Duress is more tempo-efficient in a counter-war situation. That is, you virtually "buy" two mana from the next turn (or one mana from this turn) - by removing a potential counterspell that you now won't have to Negate the next turn, when they want to land that Revelation for 3, or Aetherling, etc.
Now the question is - is the efficiency in question beneficial to you or your opponent? In a situation where your opponent already had three Dissolves in hand, he/she could simply use one to Dissolve your Duress, but would have problems using all three the next turn to protect or hinder a threat. In a situation where your opponent had only one-two Dissolve/Negates, it would be more relevant. I dunno which is the case most often.
Finally, I want to point out that information is also important, and Duress has more blowout potential early (before counter-walls get set up). If you already run a few Thoughtseize, I think the answer is to go for Negate.
This doesn't really have any bearing on the conversation here, but I was compelled to point out that in your signature, junk should be Necra
As far as Duress vs Negate: I like Negate better as it doesn't become dead late game whereas hand disruption can definitely become irrelevant. Duress is a fine card and I would still probably have some in the board, but I PREFER Negate in a vacuum.
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Post Ravnica Allegiance Type 2 - WUB Control
States '09: 14th place. Aiming for better next year.
States '10: 12th place. Aiming for better next year.
I'm going to go off the rails here and suggest that fewer people will play around Swan Song than Negate. If your deck won't be too troubled by not countering PWs, consider Swan Song! Dirt cheap, and the token they get isn't much trouble against most decks. (This definitely does NOT apply to counter heavy decks, if you're doing something like Esper ignore me. If you're splashing U in BBD, I'd say give it a shot!)
I sideboard one Duress, and no Negates, in my Esper deck. The Duress is basically in replace of one Pithing Needle, that most other people run instead. I'm not sure if it's better than Pithing Needle, but I like that I'm able to rip something from their hand, see what they have. Pithing Needle either gives their planeswalkers a trigger, or I'll have to cast it in the dark and play a guessing game. Problem with Negate, is Gr can get a T2 Domri if on the play, something Negate can't stop. Against Mono Black, they have many non-creature spells that will be played in response to me casting something, such as Devour Flesh, Hero's Downfall. These are valid targets for Duress, but for all pratical purposes, is something Duress misses. I suspect Duress is stronger in the mirror as well. It even forces a counter, making them have less mana up for me to cast my bomb, or it takes out the card that I would have wanted to counter, anyway, and gives me hand information.
Duress is a proactive form of disruption. Negate is a reactive form of disruption.
You need to know what your game plan is. Are you trying to rip their removal or threat from their hand, then land a blood baron and ride it to victory? Then you have a proactive mid-range strategy. Duress is your card.
Are you trying to sit around and trade resources with your opponent, then when your opponent is out of cards, you cast a massive sphinx's revelation? Then negate is probably better.
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This doesn't really have any bearing on the conversation here, but I was compelled to point out that in your signature, junk should be Necra
As far as Duress vs Negate: I like Negate better as it doesn't become dead late game whereas hand disruption can definitely become irrelevant. Duress is a fine card and I would still probably have some in the board, but I PREFER Negate in a vacuum.
States '09: 14th place. Aiming for better next year.
States '10: 12th place. Aiming for better next year.
Idaho State Champ: 2011
States '12: 5th place.
~DD
You need to know what your game plan is. Are you trying to rip their removal or threat from their hand, then land a blood baron and ride it to victory? Then you have a proactive mid-range strategy. Duress is your card.
Are you trying to sit around and trade resources with your opponent, then when your opponent is out of cards, you cast a massive sphinx's revelation? Then negate is probably better.