I agree that talking about maths is very fatiguing for me and I have a limited vocabulary when it comes to this kind of technical discussion. But I now understand what the gambler's fallacy means, and I can assure you I don't have such misconceptions. Trust me, I do understand how probabilities work. But I still can't see how my statement was false. In my opinion it translates perfectly to "your chances of drawing insufficient number of lands twice in a row (be it that you have to draw a smaller number cards) is smaller than the chance to draw an insufficient number of lands once". But anyway, we're on the same page about this thing, just a misconception, I wasn't trying to say what you (or everyone else) thought I was trying to say.
I figured that was the case so that's why I decided to talk it out. A lot of things can be lost in translation when you know what you mean but don't say it exactly the way it should have been said. Us mathy people can be really snarky about that, especially if they are published as they have had to endure the same kind of attitude!
Your most recent statement is correct and ultimately what I had deduced you were trying to say. I just didn't want some noob to come by and have a misconception about your statement.
There is such a thing as flat-out trading cards for damage, card advantage be damned.
If you drop Madcap skills on a cackler, you get in 5 damage T2. Does it matter if you get 2-for-1'd? Not if you can do another 15 damage.
Not saying this list is good, just aggro is about going all-in and ending the game before it starts. It's easy to see how auras can be a (risky) part of that plan.
I'm all about the damage and if you can swing with that Cackler even twice you are in excellent position and it was totally worth it. My worry besides just the potential CA is that with 10 auras you really start diluting your bodies. Saito got around it by going to 18 lands which is really gutsy and I hope it works but essentially half the deck is auras and land. The only reason Bant Enchant got away with it was all their stuff had hexproof so all the really needed was one stalker or geist to his the board most times.
I'm all about the damage and if you can swing with that Cackler even twice you are in excellent position and it was totally worth it. My worry besides just the potential CA is that with 10 auras you really start diluting your bodies. Saito got around it by going to 18 lands which is really gutsy and I hope it works but essentially half the deck is auras and land. The only reason Bant Enchant got away with it was all their stuff had hexproof so all the really needed was one stalker or geist to his the board most times.
Well, we shouldn't forget that 4 of his 10 enchants return to hand (Rancor). So that's 6 enchants that can get 2-1'd and 4 enchants that you can almost look at as 2 power haste for G. If you look at Rancor that way (and I'm not saying it's correct or incorrect), you're effectively diluting the creatures a bit less. Of course, you'll always need a body to put Rancor ON, so there is that.
It also seems as though Saito's original R/G and this updated one are very susceptible to Blind Obedience. What is a good way to get rid of this threat? Naturalize in the side? Push through it regardless? T2 Blind Obedience followed by T4 wipe has been a big problem I've found with both versions and with r/x aggro in general when testing against Esper and 4C control. Thoughts?
So in goldfishing on cockatrice a handful of times with saito's new list, it's surprisingly consistent. I did about 20 hands and only had to aggressively mulligan once. Idealy you want to keep a hand with 2-3 lands so you can curve perfectly. I'm going to test with 4 madcaps rather than volcanic strength as the power and evasion will be more relevant for more arch types with the skills.
It also seems as though Saito's original R/G and this updated one are very susceptible to Blind Obedience. What is a good way to get rid of this threat? Naturalize in the side? Push through it regardless? T2 Blind Obedience followed by T4 wipe has been a big problem I've found with both versions and with r/x aggro in general when testing against Esper and 4C control. Thoughts?
Depending on how many of the auras are maindecked, you could run some room for naturalize, but I feel that the goal of the deck is to hit early rather than lose speed with enchantment removal.... I am uncertain which option is better
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
The red mage lives by the variance and dies by the variance. May the variance be with you, always.
I gave Saito's new list a run on MODO since I figured rather than just talk bad about it I should see how it actually handled. I went two and two overall but it's not so much the record as how it played. It had really explosive starts and could get out the gate and end the game faster than even a regular Gruul deck. The major problem was the mana base though. Even aggressive mulling didn't allow me to see more than 1 hand in about 1/3 games and in the ones I did see 2 they were often non-green which is a problem for Rancor.
Overall it's not as bad as I imagined but still supremely weak to control and black removal.
Topping out at reckoner with no Pyreheart wolf seems doomed to me... I can't count how many times I had a stalled board and either hellkite or the wolf won the game for me... Btw the comments on twitter correcting his English and his responses are hilarious
Topping out at reckoner with no Pyreheart wolf seems doomed to me... I can't count how many times I had a stalled board and either hellkite or the wolf won the game for me... Btw the comments on twitter correcting his English and his responses are hilarious
pretty sure he's trying to make up for the lack of pyreheart wolf with madcap skills.
still I don't like it very much. Between the lack of lands and the number of auras in the deck I just see too many mulls either due to not having enough lands or hands full of auras and only like 1 creature to put them on. It just spells blowout to me. It's not like we're playing hexproof auras over here.
I haven't been that impressed with many of saito's latest builds. Seems to me he's been playing modern/legacy too much and forgets that standard actually plays big dudes.
I've been giving Saito's list a run in the TP room, and I have to say... it works pretty well. I was a skeptic when I saw the list, but it just rolls people. I've fought a variety of lists, and it feels pretty well in control most times. Yes, you do have to mull agressively, but the power level is just dumb. Frequent Turn 4 wins. The loss of wolf and hellrider don't impact it too much, oddly enough. The only games I ran into board stalls were ones that went long and got out of hand. I had this one particularly fun game where I went:
T1: Noble
T2: Burning Tree into Madcap, swing for 4.
T3: Boar, swing for 10.
Concede.
I think I like the looks of Saito's new list more than the previous one but I don't think I would be taking that deck to a tourney any time soon.
same. I get frustrated enough trying to mull for a good hand with 22 land. I could only imagine what it would be like with 18 lands.
it might be something you could get away with in a 3-4 round fnm or something, but I deff think it would catch up with you in a 9-10 round tournament like an open.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Big thanks to DarkNightCavalier from heroes of the planes studios for the sig!
VS is a meta call. Even Saito doesn't know if his deck will be eventually be good or bad.
yea I've noticed that saito has a habit of posting decklists with absolutely no testing or refinement. Everyone still accepts it as gold. I throw out a VERY similar BTE gruul list at the start of the season and everyone thinks it's bad. saito post the list 2 weeks later and everyone jumps on board.
I may be just a little biased :/
True but that only works for one creature and a spear makes short work of it. Volcanic strength works assuming the opp is running mountains
I agree. I'm not a fan of madcap skills. I was just saying that I think that's what he was trying to accomplish
I'm testing a list similar to Saito's myself but it has 21 land and Ghor-Clan Rampagers. At the end of the day, I'll probably find myself falling back to a list without BTEs.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I am passionate, yet I am logical. The fire within me burns, but I am also patient to a point. I am with the Fires of Salvation
I'm testing a list similar to Saito's myself but it has 21 land and Ghor-Clan Rampagers. At the end of the day, I'll probably find myself falling back to a list without BTEs.
yea, with the hoard of "semi" midrange decks coming out with jund aggro and naya aggro, it's getting harder to go "under" their curve. There are still dedicated midrange decks from last season, but I feel like more jund and naya are moving towards their aggro variants. At this point, it might be better to go with a list closer to what z was talking about a couple of weeks ago, using borderland ranger and wolfir silverheart to top off the curve.
with no 1-drops, it might even be worth it to play some guildgates, since the combination of flinthoof boar and strangleroot geist is pretty hard on the mana.
A little while back I was testing this build on trice. For the most part, I liked it. I was having very little problems with aggro and I was able to get off to some pretty fast starts myself.
yea I've noticed that saito has a habit of posting decklists with absolutely no testing or refinement. Everyone still accepts it as gold. I throw out a VERY similar BTE gruul list at the start of the season and everyone thinks it's bad. saito post the list 2 weeks later and everyone jumps on board.
Now see, I liked that list you posted a while back. Although, in general I feel like a successful aggro deck right now needs to have some late-game staying power and the ability to grind out some wins in the tougher match ups. I love the idea of these ultra lean, sligh lists, but I don't feel so confident in them with meta how it is right now. For me anyway.
If you're gonna top out at 3 I think a green based build would be better... It also allows you to cast rancor reliably. If he is taking that deck to a tourney I don't know how much of this guy I'm gonna take to heart... The only game I've lost to sligh at fnm was when he got off a bte-bte-lm combo... Guess how many times that happened? I feel bad beating up rdw that run no Pyreheart wolf or hellrider but there's no excuse for not running Pyreheart wolf so to heck with them
I feel like Saito's list is a concept car: "How fast can I make Gruul work?" 10 pump spells, 18 lands, some small removal and lots of cheap creatures, get there.
I would love to take Saito's list to a major tournament. It reeks of a one-shot, get-there strategy that would work really well. If your opponent is unprepared, you win. If you get a solid hand, you win. If you catch a few breaks, you win.
Of course, this could go horridly wrong, and you may want to cast control cards all day long to prevent this aggro race, but in reality, do you really feel like you can outplay all of your opponents?
I figured that was the case so that's why I decided to talk it out. A lot of things can be lost in translation when you know what you mean but don't say it exactly the way it should have been said. Us mathy people can be really snarky about that, especially if they are published as they have had to endure the same kind of attitude!
Your most recent statement is correct and ultimately what I had deduced you were trying to say. I just didn't want some noob to come by and have a misconception about your statement.
I'm all about the damage and if you can swing with that Cackler even twice you are in excellent position and it was totally worth it. My worry besides just the potential CA is that with 10 auras you really start diluting your bodies. Saito got around it by going to 18 lands which is really gutsy and I hope it works but essentially half the deck is auras and land. The only reason Bant Enchant got away with it was all their stuff had hexproof so all the really needed was one stalker or geist to his the board most times.
Well, we shouldn't forget that 4 of his 10 enchants return to hand (Rancor). So that's 6 enchants that can get 2-1'd and 4 enchants that you can almost look at as 2 power haste for G. If you look at Rancor that way (and I'm not saying it's correct or incorrect), you're effectively diluting the creatures a bit less. Of course, you'll always need a body to put Rancor ON, so there is that.
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
But yea, I am beginning to feel he has lost his mind, he must want to mulligan until he has 1-2 lands,and then expect a second, to run with.
Master mulligan skills.
Follow the link for nice cheap clothing.
Playing:
Death's Shadow Jund
Played:
Kiki Chord, Zoo variants, Goblins, Burn
Depending on how many of the auras are maindecked, you could run some room for naturalize, but I feel that the goal of the deck is to hit early rather than lose speed with enchantment removal.... I am uncertain which option is better
Overall it's not as bad as I imagined but still supremely weak to control and black removal.
pretty sure he's trying to make up for the lack of pyreheart wolf with madcap skills.
still I don't like it very much. Between the lack of lands and the number of auras in the deck I just see too many mulls either due to not having enough lands or hands full of auras and only like 1 creature to put them on. It just spells blowout to me. It's not like we're playing hexproof auras over here.
I haven't been that impressed with many of saito's latest builds. Seems to me he's been playing modern/legacy too much and forgets that standard actually plays big dudes.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
T1: Noble
T2: Burning Tree into Madcap, swing for 4.
T3: Boar, swing for 10.
Concede.
I like the list.
same. I get frustrated enough trying to mull for a good hand with 22 land. I could only imagine what it would be like with 18 lands.
it might be something you could get away with in a 3-4 round fnm or something, but I deff think it would catch up with you in a 9-10 round tournament like an open.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
True but that only works for one creature and a spear makes short work of it. Volcanic strength works assuming the opp is running mountains
My posts have the power of invisiblity and only a few people can read it!
yea I've noticed that saito has a habit of posting decklists with absolutely no testing or refinement. Everyone still accepts it as gold. I throw out a VERY similar BTE gruul list at the start of the season and everyone thinks it's bad. saito post the list 2 weeks later and everyone jumps on board.
I may be just a little biased :/
I agree. I'm not a fan of madcap skills. I was just saying that I think that's what he was trying to accomplish
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
My posts have the power of invisiblity and only a few people can read it!
yea, with the hoard of "semi" midrange decks coming out with jund aggro and naya aggro, it's getting harder to go "under" their curve. There are still dedicated midrange decks from last season, but I feel like more jund and naya are moving towards their aggro variants. At this point, it might be better to go with a list closer to what z was talking about a couple of weeks ago, using borderland ranger and wolfir silverheart to top off the curve.
possibly something like this:
4 rootbound crag
4 mountain
2 kessig wolf run
10 forest
4 strangleroot geist
4 desciple of the old ways
4 borderland ranger
4 huntmaster of the fells
4 ghor-clan rampager
4 wolfir silverheart
4 mizzium mortars
with no 1-drops, it might even be worth it to play some guildgates, since the combination of flinthoof boar and strangleroot geist is pretty hard on the mana.
Modern:
Twinning End
Commander:
Mayael the Anema
4 Arbor Elf
4 Experiment One
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Flinthoof Boar
3 Wolfir Avenger
4 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Thragtusk
4 Rancor
4 Bonfire of the Dammed
Planeswalker (2)
2 Domri Rade
Lands (23)
4 Stomping Ground
4 Rootbound Crag
10 Forest
4 Mountain
1 Kessig Wolf Run
I feel like you only need BR if you're going heavier into red and really need help fixing for Silverheart.
Now see, I liked that list you posted a while back. Although, in general I feel like a successful aggro deck right now needs to have some late-game staying power and the ability to grind out some wins in the tougher match ups. I love the idea of these ultra lean, sligh lists, but I don't feel so confident in them with meta how it is right now. For me anyway.
Also is a more green list possible to be ran? Avenger and Experiment one as possibilites? I guess you wouldn't be able to play Reckoner/Zealot though.
Currently Playing
UTron
Tahngarth, Talruum Hero
TRADE ME!!!
I would love to take Saito's list to a major tournament. It reeks of a one-shot, get-there strategy that would work really well. If your opponent is unprepared, you win. If you get a solid hand, you win. If you catch a few breaks, you win.
Of course, this could go horridly wrong, and you may want to cast control cards all day long to prevent this aggro race, but in reality, do you really feel like you can outplay all of your opponents?
Saito's list should have Ebony Owl Netsuke. Glass cannons ftw!