delver
flipped your delver on the play? yeah sure, I'll start the game at 11 life. oh wait, you have the mana leak for my dungeon geist? SURE! let's play another game in which my sideboard is LIFEGAIN.
If they don't go turn 1 delver, turn 2 flip delver the match is 50/50. Even if they do get a turn 2 flipped delver, we have a lot of ways to stabilize.
wolf run
TITANS! INFECT CREATURES WE CAN'T BLOCK! JOY!
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You should almost never lose to Wolf-Run. I have been playing this deck since November and have lost 1 match to a Wolf-Run deck
[quote]
UB control
nothing sticks. ruinators get dissipated. yes, I played around them.
Not a great matchup, but winnable if built and piloted correctly. Probably our third worst matchup behind Humans and Tokens
UB zombies
Actually beat this one, due to multiple gnaws and him drwing 1 geralf both games. woohoo.
[/quote
Not a deck I've had a problem with. An early Obliterator is pretty much the only way they beat us
[quote]
Naya hellrider
dead by turn 4 because he shocked my mana dorks and I was stuck with a hand full of ghoultrees and ruinators which I could not cast
sounds like you kept a terrible hand
tempered steel
flyersr. faster clock than ours. double TS draws all day, erry day.
Gnaw to the Bone is auto-win against TS and Mono-Red
tokens
Survived the intitial flying onslaught? it's game two and you ray of revelation'd my anthems? I CAN STILL PULL A VAULT OUOT OF MY ASS AND WIN THE RACE! SCREW YOU DREDGE!
Our second worst matchup, but there are a LOT of sideboard options if this is really something you are concerned about. We can still race them with Gnaw to the Bone a good portion of the time
I don't want to sound ungrateful. I don't want to sound like a whiny idiot. I really don't. but it's 4 am, and I've just lost my 14th game in a row to some genius playing tokens and drawing vault EXACTLY when I have lethal. And no, before you ask, I am not missplaying like an idiot. for some reason, the deck just can't win. is it the mws factor? is it the bad shuffler? is it the fact that people play maindeck distress+extraction IN TOKENS?
You need more mill spells, be it Mulch or Dream Twist. Both help us get off to faster and more consistent starts. I would cut down to 30 creatures and change the spell count.
Also, Dodge and Gnaw aren't worth running maindeck if you're only running 1. A single Gnaw won't usually stop you from getting beat by a deck with a faster start and a single Dodge won't usually be enough to deal lethal damage. If you want to run both main I would recommend 2 of each
This deck is very hard to play and build correctly. Your losses can almost certainly be chalked up to inexperience. It may not have seemed like you were making play mistakes, but if you lost all of those matchups then I'm sure there were more than a few mistakes on your part
We literally have half a dozen answers for Spellbomb that we can run if we so choose, people have been blowing how much GY hate affects this deck way out of proportion. I've only lost a handful of games where my opponent cast a Spellbomb or Extraction in the hundreds I have played
LaProva, I definitely see the criticisms you've made. As you'll note, I've been trying to point out similar weaknesses too.
One point: I still think 20 lands is too few, because just testing going up by 1 makes a lot of difference. 21 is what I draw, and it helps enough in this list. I admit, I still mulligan about a third of my games, but I rarely if ever have to mull more than once.
You don't necessarily need a mill source in your starting 7 to keep the hand, but it's always a good sign. Similarly, I dislike that this deck is so reliant on "only mill" cards, even if it is Tracker's Instincts, because early in the game you're getting no board presence out of it. This is a decent midrange deck, but any damage we can put in early really helps. Viridian Emissary is awesome for this, and I've been running him instead of the Elves/Pilgrims slot (secondary dorks).
Against decks where you know they're siding in spellbombs, you side out your Splinterfrights. That's what Thrun, the Last Troll and the Molten-Tail Masticore are really good for. Against Delver, you probably side in Ezuri's Archers, too. It seems like an odd switch, since the deck is built around Frights, but it's the smart play there. I'm considering shifting the Archers for One-Eyed Scarecrow, though, since in testing it has completely smoked Tokens for me. It stalls out so well, especially paired with Buried Ruin and Ratchet Bomb.
I beat a Frites deck pretty handily, since Elesh Norn is legendary and she's their big gun.. and most of our guys are big enough that -2/-2 doesn't phase them.
Anyway, if this doesn't get any help in AVR, it's probably dead, but right now it's still getting by. Any other suggestions to strengthen (or point out weaknesses) are awesome.
I'm all over the place with this deck. Trying different colors, land counts, creatures...you name it. I've played a sizable amount of games online, here's some thoughts.
Artful Dodge...I dismissed this card from the start, it was one of the first cards I cut. It just seemed so janky, so I never really gave it a chance. Since putting 2 back in my deck, I've come to appreciate the card and what it can do. It will win you games that you otherwise wouldn't win. It's great on a clogged board.
Gnaw to the Bone...I've had 4 in my sideboard from day 1, but I seem to board these in every game. Gnaw lets you stall against nearly every deck and allows you to go over the top with Ghoultree and Splinterfright. The only place it's not amazing is against Control. I still think 2 Gnaw Main deck is a good idea.
Ghoultree...Why don't you have Reach? Would that be OP?
Skaab Ruinator...This card has been a bummer for me. It was once a $20 card, now you can pick it up for $1. Talk about not reaching expectations, it's the Ryan Leaf of Magic cards. It looks so good, but really it's been nothing but underwhelming. It also has terrible synergy with Ghoultree and Splinterfright. Those 2 want cards in your yard and Ruinator takes 'em out. IDK what I'm going to do with this card, I want to use it, but it's rarely a game changer.
Wing Splicer...This is my new pet. I'm trying a few of these out to hopefully solve my Flying Creatures problem. Wing Splicer can be used in conjunction with Solemn Simulacrum and Precursor Golem to create a flying golem army. There's also the less impressive Vital Splicer, but he would provide wipe protection with regenerate.
Nihil Spellbomb is a real problem. I think we should build a deck that isn't so reliant on the graveyard. Of course we are going to use the graveyard, that's what this deck does, but you need an alternate plan. The Golems might be the answer.
It's very similar to Birthing Pod, Heartless Summoning and other decks that are built around 1 card. To be successful, your deck is going to have to compete even when you don't draw that card. It's the same here. This deck is built around the graveyard, but if we don't have the graveyard we need to still be able to apply pressure. I don't think Mental Misstep is the answer, it's too reactive and has zero synergy with the deck. Boy I hope I don't mill my Missteps...otherwise I'm dead! That's terrible.
Exactly. And this is the reason why I've recently switched my Dream Twists over to Mulch. Main reason being that we usually don't ever see much more mana than our opening hand since all our spells mill. Dream Twist is really great in a lot of situations and defintiely has the obvious advantage over Mulch because it has flashback. But in my testing with both cards, Mulch has let me keep more opening hands, seems to create more consistent starts and doesn't rely so heavily on my 7 mana dorks surviving a turn. In fact, I may go down to 20 lands, 3 Mulch and only 5 mana dorks to make room for two more slots.
Also, on the topic of siding in 4x Mental Missteps, I also usually take out Splinterfrights as well and side in two more Ruinators when facing control or any deck that may be packing Spellbombs or Cages.
Could you please enlighten me on this point? I only see 4 answers, namely 4x mental missteps (which btw are useful even if they don't bring the spellbomb in g2/3) I always felt that once they get a spellbomb on the battlefield it's game over for us, unless you somehow completly change your deck by swapping splinterfrights after g1, but in this case you just end up with a bad deck. Extraction is good against us but I don't see many lists running them.
I love the deck, I've been trying a lot of variants, UG, UGr, GR, GRu, even one with mana leaks and snapcaster mages and another with vengeful pharaoh and shriekhorn (which, btw, is hilarious when it works). Still, every version has the same problem: it completly destroys the opponent when it works, having 12/12 tramplers or 10/10 unblockable guys on the battlefield and ending up at 60 life, but loses if you don't get good draws (and, like i showed in the previous post, is not that rare).
Regarding Frites, sure, we can kill their elesh with our metamorph, but if they reanimated from hand they still get to flashback unburial rites. Problem with frites is that we can't kill their mana dorks and at the same time we can't counter/kill their reanimator targets. I don't need to tell you how much a T3/T4 wurmcoil engine hurts, and a smart player won't bother to revive an elesh to make our 10/10 beaters into 8/8 if given the opportunity to bring back something more useful from the grave.
Oh and btw I don't feel like human is such a bad match-up as most of you are saying... I have much more problems with pod, for example.
How are you doing with only 20 lands and 4 mana dorks (easily killed)? Can you cast cagebreakers? Since you are running 2 viridian emissaries maindeck maybe you could put a mountain in the side to cast ancient grudge more easily.
Don't you guys feel like this deck is very mana intensive? I mean Tracker's Instinct is a very good engine. It costs 2+3 and we also have to pay mana to cast the creatures we get from it. I've tried some games with 22 lands + 8 mana dorks and I never felt flooded with lands.
I rarely ever have land problems and when i do im generally stuck at 3 and a bird which this deck works just fine with.
I havent really had my dorks killed much lately simply because they know it just makes my guys bigger easier to get out.
By cutting splinterfright you drastically alter your game plan completely mess with your opponent. They WILL ALWAYS hold a surgical for splinterfright and WILL ALWAYS wait to pop a spellbomb once your splinterfright is on board. Once you grt rid of those they have dead cards...easy as that. Or you can leave 1 splinterfright in and let it get milled to draw out those threats.
People looking and finding only 1-2 splinterfrights game 2 with an extraction are just baffled. Then you beat them with ghoultrees and ruinators.
Trust me it works.
My deck in general has 2 ways you can play it. Around Ruinator or Splinterfright...
If its turn 3 and i have no SF in hand but can cast ruinator...im going to do that. Then you switch your gameplan to mid-late SF if you need it.
I personally don't like that card, although I can see the merits in it. One good mulch can fix your mana base for the entire game, alternately, it throws a ton of creatures into the graveyard. I run 27/23 creature/land distribution, and for some reason it never works for me, so I don't use Mulch. Perhaps I'm just unlucky, who knows.
This is my decklist, it's UG with a splash of red, and I like the feel of it so far, but it needs mostly tweaking at this point.
The biggest change I'm considering is possibly as such:
* -2 Flashfreeze out of the sideboard. I just don't really use this card much and it rarely helps when I absolutely need it. Negates, however, are so nice to use to stop sweepers like Day of Judgment and Black Sun's Zenith. This card has helped enough to where I like it, personally.
* Move the Daybreak Rangers to the sideboard to replace the Flashfreezes, replace them mainboard with Phyrexian Metamorph. I've had a lot of fun copying large beaters like titans (Free land and zombies gogogo), or even in one amusing instance copying a Sword of War and Peace, equipping it to Splinterfright, and swinging past a board full of humans for 9 damage unblockable. Doing this also means I can bring the pair of rangers back in against a Delver deck and shoot them down if they flip.
* Mainboard two Gnaw to the Bone. There have been a lot of times where I just wish I had this spell in the mainboard, so I wouldn't die to random zombie aggro decks, like some guy at my LGS who can pull some insanely fast aggro with zombies, Geralf's Messenger, and clone effects targeting Geralf's Messenger.
*Replace the Frost Titan with a Wurmcoil Engine. It's more threatening, and an opponent will be forced to respond to it immediately or risk dying to it, not to mention with a tiny bit of mana ramping we can have it out by the time we need it. At worst, it gets milled like the titan and just feeds our beaters.
* Possible land consideration: Buried Ruin. I like the idea of this card, even if running one or two can help. Lets us fetch our milled Metamorphs or Wurmcoils back if we need them again. @Hitman: If you're running your golem package, you WANT these. Recursion and resilience is something this style of deck wants, and it can help with the aforementioned golem variant.
Also, Hyugafan, this is a hard deck to pilot and do well with, but the rewards are delicious, and you could consider this rogue almost. Note these are based on my experiences with my build.
delver
flipped your delver on the play? yeah sure, I'll start the game at 11 life. oh wait, you have the mana leak for my dungeon geist? SURE! let's play another game in which my sideboard is LIFEGAIN.
Delver's 50/50 if they don't get a Turn 2 flipped Delver. If this happens this matchup becomes a lot harder, especially if they keep laying on the Vapor Snags and such. If the turn 2 flip doesn't occur, we're in good shape, just play the matchup safely, and try to get as many threats to stick as possible. They only have so many answers to a larger creature count. Personally, this is my favorite matchup purely for the entertainment value and is a very skill-based match.
wolf run
TITANS! INFECT CREATURES WE CAN'T BLOCK! JOY!
This has to be far and away the easiest matchup for this deck. At worst, they have a turn 4 Prime Titan, and even then, our threats become scary much faster than theirs. The most dangerous thing we have to worry about are Dungrove Elders, Primeval Titans, or a lethal Inkmoth. In my experience it's usually a 75/25 split, depending on my mill luck.
UB control
nothing sticks. ruinators get dissipated. yes, I played around them.
This is an extremely hard match, almost as much as humans. It is winnable, but you'll have to pull out all the stops to make it happen.
That's not a possible play, first and foremost. But yes, a Turn 4 Angelic Destiny on a Turn 3 Mirran Crusader kills us, and about 90% of other decks. The resilience of human decks in general alongside powerful control options like Oblivion Ring are just difficult to play against. Don't feel bad if you lose to these decks. I sideboard Grim Lavamancers in just to shoot their threats, and even then it's still difficult.
We can still handle troublesome threats like a larger Champion or Mirran Crusader, like just trampling right the hell over Mirran Crusader or using Dungeon Geists to tap them down, or even a Skaab Ruinator threatening to block anything that attacks.
UB zombies
Actually beat this one, due to multiple gnaws and him drwing 1 geralf both games. woohoo.
Gravecrawlers are a pain to answer. All we can do is trade with them, and even then they just keep returning over and over and over again. Add in all the other threatening staple zombies and we have ourselves a problem. Multiple Geralf's Messengers kill us though. Gnaw to the Bone may need to be a mainboard card for this.
Naya hellrider
dead by turn 4 because he shocked my mana dorks and I was stuck with a hand full of ghoultrees and ruinators which I could not cast
That doesn't sound like too good a hand. If you're stuck with a ruinator and ghoultrees in your hand, either you didn't lose enough mana dorks to cast them, or just didn't get the mana you need. I'd have to see what the turn-by-turn plays were though. Gnaws make this winnable, and with that card we can race them.
tokens
Survived the intitial flying onslaught? it's game two and you ray of revelation'd my anthems? I CAN STILL PULL A VAULT OUOT OF MY ASS AND WIN THE RACE! SCREW YOU DREDGE!
If you know these decks see use in your local meta, you may need to start sideboarding Ratchet Bombs and Corrosive Gales if you haven't yet. It is a hard match if the guy running the deck knows what they're doing though.
@Ultimania92 - I can see you run 23 lands and Faithless Looting, so Mulch in your deck would suck since it shouldn't be as hard to get land compared to 20 lands which is what LeProva is running.
Mulch for low land count, draw or straight mill for higher land counts? I just don't like throwing away land with this deck >_<
Most of us used to use Mulch, the problem with it came from it being a dead card far too often. With only 20 land in the deck it's pretty inconsistent. On average you're going to get about 1.3 land from it, and fairly often it will completely miss. It does let you get a little more land into play on average (the rule we were using was 4 mulch=5 land since it hit 1.3 on average each time) so you make more land drops but at the same time there's better ways to get that mana. The reason most of us went to Dream Twist and manadorks instead of Mulch was because it gives mana acceleration and milling that isn't dead in the graveyard. If the manadork dies or gets milled it benefits the deck, and if Dream Twist gets milled it can still be used.
Wing Splicer...This is my new pet. I'm trying a few of these out to hopefully solve my Flying Creatures problem. Wing Splicer can be used in conjunction with Solemn Simulacrum and Precursor Golem to create a flying golem army. There's also the less impressive Vital Splicer, but he would provide wipe protection with regenerate.
If you're going to pay 4 for a 3/3 flier (that can be grounded by a gutshot or non morbid tragic slip) why not add more Dungeon Geists to your deck? It's the same mana cost, same power/toughness, and lets you tap down one of your opponents creatures. If you need more flying hate, there's Daybreak Ranger which hits most threats, Niblis of the Breath, Skaab Ruinator, and Stitched Drake.
Sorry for the earlier venting. This is why you don't post when it's 4 AM. I'm tinkering with the list right now, trying different things. splashing red has helped alot. faithless looting is a really good card.
There has been a lot of discussion since, so I'll just tell my opinion on few cards and my habit of playing this deck.
1) Mulch. I have personally always played this card. With Armored Skaab and Tracker's Instincts I find myself needing only one mill card (sometimes I might run out of mill power, but those occasions are certainly few and far between), so the decision's between Dream Twist and Mulch. Dream Twist would give approximately double the milling power (without snapcaster mage, that is), but as mentioned, I find this deck really mana intense. I tried playing with dream twists, and despite it exceeding my expectations, I found myself mulling and the deck being lest consistent. Giving up Mulch would mean, for me, going from 21 to 24 with the land count, and that option doesn't really appeal to me. This conclusions, as always, stems from my personal playtesting.
I'm a bit on the heavy side, but I like being able to keep the milling-engine going, dropping a sun titan perhaps, and keeping more of my first opening hands. One land, a mana dork and mulch are pretty much always a reliable hand. With two lands and a mulch it's totally care-free. As I said, Dream Twists has approximately double the milling power, but mulch's utilities outweight its shortcomings, at least in my opinion.
2) Faithless Looting. If it didn't give card disadvantage and had slightly smaller flashback cost, it'd be pretty awesome card for this deck. I played quite a lot with this card, but apart from manafixing, it didn't come too handy. Mulch and Tracker's instinct dig deeper, and give (almost certainly) a card advantage. It's a good card, but not excellent. Mulch certainly makes it a better choice, and I DID find myself throwing away lands, but I wasn't flooded with mana often enough.
Now that I think about, If I played only milling spells and creatures, Mulch and Tracker's would pretty much do Looting's job on their own. However, as I tinker with Snapcaster, I might try some red-heavier variant with other utility and burn spells, and Faithless Looting as the way to dig for them. In other cases, what I mentioned above^.
3) Skaab Ruinator. Does soooo many jobs. If it doesn't get dissipated, control decks will suffer from this card. Stops flying threats, as well as Crusader. Either kills it and stays alive, or then you can just resurrect him. In a way he does have synergy with this deck: we play him from our graveyard, which is essentially card advantage. We can also fuel him, so that casting him 5 times in a row is actually realistic. It does weaken our frights, so if I should describe how to use him, I feel like quoting one of blues' finest card's flavor text: "It isn't for fighting: it is for when fighting's gone bad." I think that summarizes it pretty well. One in MB, one or more in SB, I think.
Against control: I leave mana open for mana leaks, play one threat at a time, mainboard Ruinators, play mental missteps (with the support cast of Snapcasters, as always) and memory's journeys. I catch and lure counter spells until I suddenly drop a Ghoultree, or wait until they are tapped out and play Sun Titan bringing back a Splinterfright.
How my first few turns usually go:
T1: mana dork
T2: Mulch, Tracker's Instinct or Armored Skaab, depending on the situation
T3: more spells or a threat, depending on the game
T4 - T6: setting the board, Ghoultrees and Splinterfrights
T6 - T8: Swinging heavily, and further fueling my threats in between.
If something needs special attention, I mainboard spells. How I interact with other decks (included both mainboard and sideboard cards). It's a bit crowded, as you can see, and some cutting will be done, as soon as I have decided which cards to keep:
I am contemplating adding more Dungeon Geists, but for now I'm testing Wing Splicer. It's a little easier on the mana base(2UU vs 3U) and Splicer allows me to add a small Golem theme.
Precursor Golem is a finisher in it's own right, but paired with Wing Splicer it's just nuts. With this configuration I don't have to rely on my graveyard to close out games. The same can't be said about Splinterfight, Ghoultree and Skaab Ruinator. All 3 of those cards are good finishers, but if your yard gets Nihil Spellbomb ed...It's game over.
I thought about adding Stitched Drake, meh. Seems good vs Red and Slagstorm, but not too exciting. Maybe a side board option.
I've tested Daybreak Ranger, but the Ranger has failed to impress. To take full advantage of Daybreak Ranger you need to add some amount of Red to the deck. As of now I'm focusing on UG, no splash. While the front side is good vs flying creatures, often times it's too slow. I haven't ruled Daybreak out, but it's on the bench for now.
I talked about Skaab Ruinator in my previous post, it's in my side board for Control. As for Niblis of the Breath, I tried it. It's not good enough IMO.
If you run 20 lands the probability of having only 1 land in hand in the opening 7 is 24%, and I'd really mulligan such a hand, even if it had mana dorks, unless I'm sure I'm facing a deck that can't kill them on T1.
This number goes down to 22% with 21 lands and drops to 19% with 22.
Assuming (not true) that the number of lands and mill cards in the opening hand are independent, in a 20 lands deck this leads to a 38% probability of drawing 6 cards, which becomes 36% with 21 lands.
Oh, bythe way, feel free to doublecheck my calculations... Never liked probability!
I love probabilities, and yeah, I had the same result about getting one land in your opening hand. A list running mulch and dorks doesn't suffer from a lower mana count, but I would never ever run less than 24 lands in a last without them.
About the probability of not getting enough lands and milling power in opening hand --I think those numbers are irrerelevant, because as you said, they are dependant. Mulch and mana dorks would make things further complicated. I don't have to mull with this deck a lot, no more than with my other decks, and one of them is mono-white with very straightforward plan.
Gravecrawlers are a pain to answer. All we can do is trade with them, and even then they just keep returning over and over and over again. Add in all the other threatening staple zombies and we have ourselves a problem. Multiple Geralf's Messengers kill us though. Gnaw to the Bone may need to be a mainboard card for this.
Memory's Journey answers Crawlers and Messengers quite well. I've been advocating it for a long time now, and I'm amazed nobody else has been using it. It has so many uses in this deck
It's really good against: Gravecrawler
anything with Undying
Frites Snapcaster/Moorland Haunt Chandra's Phoenix
the mirror
Mill (generally not a good deck, but it can utterly destroy us if we're not careful. Journey buys a turn at the worst)
20 lands deck:
prob(lands in opening hand <=1) = 0.2460
prob(mill cards in opening hand = 0) = 0.1903
prob(no mill cards or less than one land) = 0.4111
21 lands deck:
prob(lands in opening hand <=1) = 0.2181
prob(mill cards in opening hand = 0) = 0.1901
prob(no mill cards or less than one land) = 0.3902
20 lands deck:
prob(lands in opening hand <=1) = 0.2460
prob(mill cards in opening hand = 0) = 0.1903
prob(no mill cards or less than one land) = 0.4111
21 lands deck:
prob(lands in opening hand <=1) = 0.2181
prob(mill cards in opening hand = 0) = 0.1901
prob(no mill cards or less than one land) = 0.3902
How did you actually calculate this? How many mill cards included? IMO all lists run 12 in the least. And about the land count, I doubt there is any list that would run that few lands and no mana dorks and mulchs. With those cards, even a one land opening hand is very viable. Those probabilities don't really say anything. 24 without ramping or mulchs, with those cards, you should check how often you get one land an at least one dork, and one one land and at least one mana dork and mulch. Land counts should then be 21 - 23.
EDIT: just got a bit offended at the harsh numbers, as you can see. Thanks for the research
The main idea with my deck is to get off of the reliance on mana dorks, worry less about a blisteringly fast opening and curve into threats without betting the entire match on getting the perfect opening hand and/or my opponent not having GY hate.
Wolfbitten Captive: Lots of potential here! He's a powerful card versus control because he can sneak in under Mana Leak on the draw and beat face for a couple of turns. Yes--it dies to nearly everything, but the point is it is potent and draws removal. These are great qualities in a one drop.
Viridian Emissary: I'm convinced I like this better than Screeching Skaab. The last thing you want to do on turn 2 is blindly mill two cards if you've kept a 2 land hand. You could very well see two land off to the discard and not see another for a while. Another efficient beater and filters land out.
Mulch: I still believe this card is strong. You are guaranteed to drop each and every creature you draw into the gy. This is important for the midgame when enabling Splinterfrights, Ghoultrees and Skaab Ruinator.
Cackling Counterpart: The fourth Metamorph. At instant speed. Not dead in the graveyard, either.
No Gnaw to the Bone in my MB. Why? I'm planning on being more aggressive in game 1 and don't want to devote space to it. How many I bring in depends entirely on the match up.
Memory's Journey: Saves us from Surgical Extraction, mitigates Nihil, stops Geralf's Messenger, stops Frites, stops Snapcaster, etc. I'm trying this out for the first time.
Mental Misstep: I'm still not sure about this and Wondering if Beast Within isn't just better. Also, Skaab Ruinator might be all I need vs. Nihil. Ratchet Bomb vs. Tokens and flipped creatures. Still solid removal in my meta. A single Acidic Slime. Comes in vs. heavy Artifact and Equipment decks.
This deck has some very strong plays in the initial turns and won't falter as easily as my previous builds. I feel more in control of how I curve out when I have at least one Mulch to play. It's also still possible to hit 5 mana on turn 4 with an Emissary which makes Acidic Slime that much better.
Right, but I thought you meant as metamorphs 5+. Cackling Counterpart would be really good if the flashback cost were reasonable but it's not, making it pretty similar to Forbidden Alchemy in my opinion. A good card in your hand, but totally dead i nthe graveyard.
The main idea with my deck is to get off of the reliance on mana dorks, worry less about a blisteringly fast opening and curve into threats without betting the entire match on getting the perfect opening hand and/or my opponent not having GY hate.
Wolfbitten Captive: Lots of potential here! He's a powerful card versus control because he can sneak in under Mana Leak on the draw and beat face for a couple of turns. Yes--it dies to nearly everything, but the point is it is potent and draws removal. These are great qualities in a one drop.
Viridian Emissary: I'm convinced I like this better than Screeching Skaab. The last thing you want to do on turn 2 is blindly mill two cards if you've kept a 2 land hand. You could very well see two land off to the discard and not see another for a while. Another efficient beater and filters land out.
Mulch: I still believe this card is strong. You are guaranteed to drop each and every creature you draw into the gy. This is important for the midgame when enabling Splinterfrights, Ghoultrees and Skaab Ruinator.
Cackling Counterpart: The fourth Metamorph. At instant speed. Not dead in the graveyard, either.
No Gnaw to the Bone in my MB. Why? I'm planning on being more aggressive in game 1 and don't want to devote space to it. How many I bring in depends entirely on the match up.
Memory's Journey: Saves us from Surgical Extraction, mitigates Nihil, stops Geralf's Messenger, stops Frites, stops Snapcaster, etc. I'm trying this out for the first time.
Mental Misstep: I'm still not sure about this and Wondering if Beast Within isn't just better. Also, Skaab Ruinator might be all I need vs. Nihil. Ratchet Bomb vs. Tokens and flipped creatures. Still solid removal in my meta. A single Acidic Slime. Comes in vs. heavy Artifact and Equipment decks.
This deck has some very strong plays in the initial turns and won't falter as easily as my previous builds. I feel more in control of how I curve out when I have at least one Mulch to play. It's also still possible to hit 5 mana on turn 4 with an Emissary which makes Acidic Slime that much better.
I'm with you when it comes to supporting Mulch! The card is House I really like that you tried a new perspective when building your deck. Fresh(-ish) ideas are more than welcome. I have thought about Cackling Counterpart myself, but never actually put it into testing due to the flashback cost and not counting as a creature. However... I think the card is slightly underplayed atm. Makes shenigans possible, surprise blockers and such. Now that you mentioned, I feel tempted to try him. If the card ends up in grave, Snapcaster reduces his flashback cost. The card doesn't count as a creature, but it extends your library since you can cast it from the grave. A card worth looking into.
Now that we're talking about small green creatures, what are you thoughts about Deranged Outcast? Now, I don't see him doing much, but certain deck builds can always surprise via making the most of cards that don't seem too useful at the first glance.
Game 1: This was horrible. This matchup revolved entirely around swords. This deck can win provided it gets the swords under control. In short, the guy had a Sword of War and Peace and a Sword of Feast and Famine out really fast, and stuck it on a Strangleroot Geist. Even with Dungeon Geists, he just shifted both swords to a Birds of Paradise, and that was game.
Sideboard: +1 Ancient Grudge, +2 Flashfreeze, +1 Gnaw to the Bone
-1 Dungeon Geists, -1 Frost Titan, -2 Boneyard Wurm
Game 2: I reversed the entire matchup. I had an explosive opening where on Turn 3, I had a 3/3 Splinterfright followed by a Turn 4 Ghoultree. Even if surprisingly large Dungrove Elders stalled for time and made a game-ending swing impossible, I saw it fit to have a Phyrexian Metamorph copy a Sword of Feast and Famine, equip it to a Ghoultree, and seal the game with an Artful Dodge on Splinterfright.
Game 3: Exactly the same as game 1, just two turns slower. In hindsight, I kept a horrible hand, as I was banking on drawing a land in the first two turns, which didn't happen. Eventually it was a Birds of Paradise equipped with a sword and a Strangleroot Geist vs a Splinterfright at 1/1 and a phyrexian metamorph I could use. At 1 life.
Round 2 vs RB Vampires: 2-1
Game 1: Utter blowout. I didn't quite get a large enough creature out in time, and died on turn 5. Guy's plays consisted of such:
Turn 1: Land, Stromkirk Noble, 20 life
Turn 2: Land, Bloodcrazed Neonate, 19 life.
Turn 3: Land, Markov Blademaster, 16 life.
Turn 4: Burn effects everywhere, no blockers as a result since Splinterfright wasn't quite large enough.
Turn 5: Land, Double Vampirc Fury, so 5+6 (Blademaster)+7 (Neonate) + 7(Stromkirk Noble) = dead. Nothing my blockers could do as they came one turn too late.
Game 2: THRUN MVP ALL DAY EVERY DAY. I actually got some blockers online early for once, including a crucial turn 2 Armored Skaab. A well-timed Gnaw to the Bone and some grinding and eventually my Ghoultrees just swung past everything with Artful Dodge.
Game 3: Same thing as the last game.
Round 3 vs BW Humans: 1-2
Game 1: This guy was running a very "different" deck involving Skirsdag High Priest. When I casted a Dungeon Geist, I had a choice between three targets: a Champion of the Parish at 6/6, another champion at 2/2, and Skirsdag High Priest. I chose to lock the priest as I didn't need him making 5/5 demon tokens and killing me with them. It became a defensive game where no one could really swing as they'd die from being wide open the very next turn. The only attacks that occured consisted of Splinterfright stopping Sorin, Lord of Innistrad from reaching 6 counters or forcing me to throw chump blockers away.
Eventually the game had a 12/12 Champion, a 8/8 Champion, a 18/18(!) Geist-Honored Monk, and a bunch of 1/2 humans or tokens, some lifelink vampire tokens vs my two 9/9 Splinterfrights, a Ghoultree, a Screeching Skaabs, and a Birds of Paradise. When I untapped, I had 7 mana total including the birds, and an Artful Dodge in the graveyard. In hand was a Screeching Skaab and in the graveyard was a Tracker's Instincts, leaving the game up to what the next 6 cards in my library was. The last card both mill effects found was an Artful Dodge, so I flashed both and swung for 21 unblockable.
Games 2 and 3: I really don't remember these games well, but the guy's deck just got way out of hand. I kept losing blockers to Liliana of the Veil and Tragic Slips.
Round 4 vs Illusion and Architect: 0-2
Game 1 and 2: Worst mana screws possible. Kept milling off just lands and NOTHING ELSE. Even if I did target all their dragons with Artful Dodges, it just wasn't enough, especially once Lord of the Unreal went online. I've never had mana screws this bad, and I checked my deck after each game. I was at least 3 turns away from finding mana. Just horrible luck.
If I had to take a guess how the matchup would go, it'd play similarly to Delvers. The few blockers I did have online were promptly Vapor Snagged. The matchup is very slightly in our favor though, as with Gnaw to the Bone, we can race, although it's still a hard matchup. Illusions are ridiculously good, and we need cheap targeted effects to deal with them.
I think this highlights an important point about Dredge and one of it's main drawbacks: It's horribly inconsistent at times, even with good deck building.
Round 5 vs RB Vampires (another deck): 2-0
Game 1: Classic race scenario. A turn 2 Bloodcrazed Neonate followed by a turn 3 Crossway Vampire makes things tricky. As the board developed, two Splinterfrights together couldn't safely or efficiently block the increasingly-powerful vampires, but the vampire side couldn't afford to sit back either or our giant friends would just trample over for the kill. Ending life: 2 for me, 0 for them as I swung with 2 7/7 Splinterfrights on turn 6.
Game 2: The same thing, just a bit slower. The game was 19-1, with me far behind on life. I thought I was going to lose, but at 6 mana, a Frost Titan wouldn't save me. Even with the tapping effect, there was an extremely high chance they'd have a way to remove my blockers the next turn and just get the last point of damage through. Also, having Splinterfrights hit by Surgical Extraction sucks.
After drawing for the final turn, it was none other than a perfectly-timed Gnaw to the Bone. My opponent promptly conceded after I casted and Flashbacked Gnaw to the Bone for an insane 56 life. There was no way he could win once Thrun started swinging past everything and Ghoultrees were hitting the board.
Round 6 vs Wolf Run Ramp: 2-0
Game 1: This was easy. Even though my foe ramped into a turn 4 Primeval, he didn't quite find the lands he needed to win through a boosted Inkmoth Nexus. At 9 poison, he cast a Grave Titan, but that came far too late: I had two Ghoultrees, and an Artful Dodge I drew the very next turn. Swung for 20 unblockable, and that was game.
Game 2: This guy sideboarded in all sorts of graveyard hate. Extractions and Spellbombs ahoy, even though I didn't see any of the spellbombs he sided in. This was honestly much harder to win as the guy was able to destroy all of my blue lands making it impossible for me to cast my Dungeon Geists that were in hand or Artful Dodge on Ghoultrees I eventually casted.
The key card that won me this matchup? Phyrexian Metamorph. My opponent cast Glissa, which promptly met a Metamorph two turns later, killing both. At the end, while I had no blue lands or mana sources to speak of, my foe had an Acidic Slime, which was copied, and I detonated the one Inkmoth Nexus he could animate and defend with. My opponent conceded at this point as he knew there was no way to stabilize against two ghoultrees. My next draw was an Island, so he lost no matter what.
Result: 3-3
I could have done better, but I was just unlucky with the mill effects at times, and I have nothing but hatred towards the Scars swords.
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If they don't go turn 1 delver, turn 2 flip delver the match is 50/50. Even if they do get a turn 2 flipped delver, we have a lot of ways to stabilize.
Not a great matchup, but winnable if built and piloted correctly. Probably our third worst matchup behind Humans and Tokens
Our worst matchup, every deck has one
sounds like you kept a terrible hand
Gnaw to the Bone is auto-win against TS and Mono-Red
Our second worst matchup, but there are a LOT of sideboard options if this is really something you are concerned about. We can still race them with Gnaw to the Bone a good portion of the time
You need more mill spells, be it Mulch or Dream Twist. Both help us get off to faster and more consistent starts. I would cut down to 30 creatures and change the spell count.
Also, Dodge and Gnaw aren't worth running maindeck if you're only running 1. A single Gnaw won't usually stop you from getting beat by a deck with a faster start and a single Dodge won't usually be enough to deal lethal damage. If you want to run both main I would recommend 2 of each
This deck is very hard to play and build correctly. Your losses can almost certainly be chalked up to inexperience. It may not have seemed like you were making play mistakes, but if you lost all of those matchups then I'm sure there were more than a few mistakes on your part
We literally have half a dozen answers for Spellbomb that we can run if we so choose, people have been blowing how much GY hate affects this deck way out of proportion. I've only lost a handful of games where my opponent cast a Spellbomb or Extraction in the hundreds I have played
Standard:
GU Prophet
Legacy:
WBU Shared Fate
Trades
One point: I still think 20 lands is too few, because just testing going up by 1 makes a lot of difference. 21 is what I draw, and it helps enough in this list. I admit, I still mulligan about a third of my games, but I rarely if ever have to mull more than once.
You don't necessarily need a mill source in your starting 7 to keep the hand, but it's always a good sign. Similarly, I dislike that this deck is so reliant on "only mill" cards, even if it is Tracker's Instincts, because early in the game you're getting no board presence out of it. This is a decent midrange deck, but any damage we can put in early really helps. Viridian Emissary is awesome for this, and I've been running him instead of the Elves/Pilgrims slot (secondary dorks).
Against decks where you know they're siding in spellbombs, you side out your Splinterfrights. That's what Thrun, the Last Troll and the Molten-Tail Masticore are really good for. Against Delver, you probably side in Ezuri's Archers, too. It seems like an odd switch, since the deck is built around Frights, but it's the smart play there. I'm considering shifting the Archers for One-Eyed Scarecrow, though, since in testing it has completely smoked Tokens for me. It stalls out so well, especially paired with Buried Ruin and Ratchet Bomb.
I beat a Frites deck pretty handily, since Elesh Norn is legendary and she's their big gun.. and most of our guys are big enough that -2/-2 doesn't phase them.
Anyway, if this doesn't get any help in AVR, it's probably dead, but right now it's still getting by. Any other suggestions to strengthen (or point out weaknesses) are awesome.
Currently Working On: Jund Ramp (RTR Block)
GR My Blog RG (Std)
Its even pretty strong right now i have to say.
Artful Dodge...I dismissed this card from the start, it was one of the first cards I cut. It just seemed so janky, so I never really gave it a chance. Since putting 2 back in my deck, I've come to appreciate the card and what it can do. It will win you games that you otherwise wouldn't win. It's great on a clogged board.
Gnaw to the Bone...I've had 4 in my sideboard from day 1, but I seem to board these in every game. Gnaw lets you stall against nearly every deck and allows you to go over the top with Ghoultree and Splinterfright. The only place it's not amazing is against Control. I still think 2 Gnaw Main deck is a good idea.
Tracker's Instincts...I love this card, it really is amazing in this deck.
Ghoultree...Why don't you have Reach? Would that be OP?
Skaab Ruinator...This card has been a bummer for me. It was once a $20 card, now you can pick it up for $1. Talk about not reaching expectations, it's the Ryan Leaf of Magic cards. It looks so good, but really it's been nothing but underwhelming. It also has terrible synergy with Ghoultree and Splinterfright. Those 2 want cards in your yard and Ruinator takes 'em out. IDK what I'm going to do with this card, I want to use it, but it's rarely a game changer.
Wing Splicer...This is my new pet. I'm trying a few of these out to hopefully solve my Flying Creatures problem. Wing Splicer can be used in conjunction with Solemn Simulacrum and Precursor Golem to create a flying golem army. There's also the less impressive Vital Splicer, but he would provide wipe protection with regenerate.
Nihil Spellbomb is a real problem. I think we should build a deck that isn't so reliant on the graveyard. Of course we are going to use the graveyard, that's what this deck does, but you need an alternate plan. The Golems might be the answer.
It's very similar to Birthing Pod, Heartless Summoning and other decks that are built around 1 card. To be successful, your deck is going to have to compete even when you don't draw that card. It's the same here. This deck is built around the graveyard, but if we don't have the graveyard we need to still be able to apply pressure. I don't think Mental Misstep is the answer, it's too reactive and has zero synergy with the deck. Boy I hope I don't mill my Missteps...otherwise I'm dead! That's terrible.
Thanks for reading and keep brewing!
Exactly. And this is the reason why I've recently switched my Dream Twists over to Mulch. Main reason being that we usually don't ever see much more mana than our opening hand since all our spells mill. Dream Twist is really great in a lot of situations and defintiely has the obvious advantage over Mulch because it has flashback. But in my testing with both cards, Mulch has let me keep more opening hands, seems to create more consistent starts and doesn't rely so heavily on my 7 mana dorks surviving a turn. In fact, I may go down to 20 lands, 3 Mulch and only 5 mana dorks to make room for two more slots.
Also, on the topic of siding in 4x Mental Missteps, I also usually take out Splinterfrights as well and side in two more Ruinators when facing control or any deck that may be packing Spellbombs or Cages.
I rarely ever have land problems and when i do im generally stuck at 3 and a bird which this deck works just fine with.
I havent really had my dorks killed much lately simply because they know it just makes my guys bigger easier to get out.
People looking and finding only 1-2 splinterfrights game 2 with an extraction are just baffled. Then you beat them with ghoultrees and ruinators.
Trust me it works.
My deck in general has 2 ways you can play it. Around Ruinator or Splinterfright...
If its turn 3 and i have no SF in hand but can cast ruinator...im going to do that. Then you switch your gameplan to mid-late SF if you need it.
I personally don't like that card, although I can see the merits in it. One good mulch can fix your mana base for the entire game, alternately, it throws a ton of creatures into the graveyard. I run 27/23 creature/land distribution, and for some reason it never works for me, so I don't use Mulch. Perhaps I'm just unlucky, who knows.
This is my decklist, it's UG with a splash of red, and I like the feel of it so far, but it needs mostly tweaking at this point.
4x Birds of Paradise
1x Frost Titan
2x Viridian Emissary
2x Boneyard Wurm
2x Daybreak Ranger
1x Skaab Ruinator
4x Splinterfright
2x Armored Skaab
4x Ghoultree
3x Dungeon Geists
4x Screeching Skaab
2x Faithless Looting
2x Artful Dodge
4x Tracker's Instincts
// Lands (23)
7x Forest
5x Island
1x Mountain
2x Rootbound Crag
2x Evolving Wilds
2x Sulfur Falls
4x Hinterland Harbor
2x Negate
2x Ancient Grudge
2x Flashfreeze
2x Grim Lavamancer
1x Ratchet Bomb
2x Thrun, the Last Troll
1x Phyrexian Metamorph
2x Gnaw to the Bone
1x Grafdigger's Cage
The biggest change I'm considering is possibly as such:
* -2 Flashfreeze out of the sideboard. I just don't really use this card much and it rarely helps when I absolutely need it. Negates, however, are so nice to use to stop sweepers like Day of Judgment and Black Sun's Zenith. This card has helped enough to where I like it, personally.
* Move the Daybreak Rangers to the sideboard to replace the Flashfreezes, replace them mainboard with Phyrexian Metamorph. I've had a lot of fun copying large beaters like titans (Free land and zombies gogogo), or even in one amusing instance copying a Sword of War and Peace, equipping it to Splinterfright, and swinging past a board full of humans for 9 damage unblockable. Doing this also means I can bring the pair of rangers back in against a Delver deck and shoot them down if they flip.
* Mainboard two Gnaw to the Bone. There have been a lot of times where I just wish I had this spell in the mainboard, so I wouldn't die to random zombie aggro decks, like some guy at my LGS who can pull some insanely fast aggro with zombies, Geralf's Messenger, and clone effects targeting Geralf's Messenger.
*Replace the Frost Titan with a Wurmcoil Engine. It's more threatening, and an opponent will be forced to respond to it immediately or risk dying to it, not to mention with a tiny bit of mana ramping we can have it out by the time we need it. At worst, it gets milled like the titan and just feeds our beaters.
* Possible land consideration: Buried Ruin. I like the idea of this card, even if running one or two can help. Lets us fetch our milled Metamorphs or Wurmcoils back if we need them again. @Hitman: If you're running your golem package, you WANT these. Recursion and resilience is something this style of deck wants, and it can help with the aforementioned golem variant.
Also, Hyugafan, this is a hard deck to pilot and do well with, but the rewards are delicious, and you could consider this rogue almost. Note these are based on my experiences with my build.
Delver's 50/50 if they don't get a Turn 2 flipped Delver. If this happens this matchup becomes a lot harder, especially if they keep laying on the Vapor Snags and such. If the turn 2 flip doesn't occur, we're in good shape, just play the matchup safely, and try to get as many threats to stick as possible. They only have so many answers to a larger creature count. Personally, this is my favorite matchup purely for the entertainment value and is a very skill-based match.
This has to be far and away the easiest matchup for this deck. At worst, they have a turn 4 Prime Titan, and even then, our threats become scary much faster than theirs. The most dangerous thing we have to worry about are Dungrove Elders, Primeval Titans, or a lethal Inkmoth. In my experience it's usually a 75/25 split, depending on my mill luck.
This is an extremely hard match, almost as much as humans. It is winnable, but you'll have to pull out all the stops to make it happen.
That's not a possible play, first and foremost. But yes, a Turn 4 Angelic Destiny on a Turn 3 Mirran Crusader kills us, and about 90% of other decks. The resilience of human decks in general alongside powerful control options like Oblivion Ring are just difficult to play against. Don't feel bad if you lose to these decks. I sideboard Grim Lavamancers in just to shoot their threats, and even then it's still difficult.
We can still handle troublesome threats like a larger Champion or Mirran Crusader, like just trampling right the hell over Mirran Crusader or using Dungeon Geists to tap them down, or even a Skaab Ruinator threatening to block anything that attacks.
Gravecrawlers are a pain to answer. All we can do is trade with them, and even then they just keep returning over and over and over again. Add in all the other threatening staple zombies and we have ourselves a problem. Multiple Geralf's Messengers kill us though. Gnaw to the Bone may need to be a mainboard card for this.
That doesn't sound like too good a hand. If you're stuck with a ruinator and ghoultrees in your hand, either you didn't lose enough mana dorks to cast them, or just didn't get the mana you need. I'd have to see what the turn-by-turn plays were though. Gnaws make this winnable, and with that card we can race them.
If you know these decks see use in your local meta, you may need to start sideboarding Ratchet Bombs and Corrosive Gales if you haven't yet. It is a hard match if the guy running the deck knows what they're doing though.
Mulch for low land count, draw or straight mill for higher land counts? I just don't like throwing away land with this deck >_<
If you're going to pay 4 for a 3/3 flier (that can be grounded by a gutshot or non morbid tragic slip) why not add more Dungeon Geists to your deck? It's the same mana cost, same power/toughness, and lets you tap down one of your opponents creatures. If you need more flying hate, there's Daybreak Ranger which hits most threats, Niblis of the Breath, Skaab Ruinator, and Stitched Drake.
1) Mulch. I have personally always played this card. With Armored Skaab and Tracker's Instincts I find myself needing only one mill card (sometimes I might run out of mill power, but those occasions are certainly few and far between), so the decision's between Dream Twist and Mulch. Dream Twist would give approximately double the milling power (without snapcaster mage, that is), but as mentioned, I find this deck really mana intense. I tried playing with dream twists, and despite it exceeding my expectations, I found myself mulling and the deck being lest consistent. Giving up Mulch would mean, for me, going from 21 to 24 with the land count, and that option doesn't really appeal to me. This conclusions, as always, stems from my personal playtesting.
If someone's interested, my manabase:
4 Birds of paradise
4 avacyn's pilgrim
4 mulch
I'm a bit on the heavy side, but I like being able to keep the milling-engine going, dropping a sun titan perhaps, and keeping more of my first opening hands. One land, a mana dork and mulch are pretty much always a reliable hand. With two lands and a mulch it's totally care-free. As I said, Dream Twists has approximately double the milling power, but mulch's utilities outweight its shortcomings, at least in my opinion.
2) Faithless Looting. If it didn't give card disadvantage and had slightly smaller flashback cost, it'd be pretty awesome card for this deck. I played quite a lot with this card, but apart from manafixing, it didn't come too handy. Mulch and Tracker's instinct dig deeper, and give (almost certainly) a card advantage. It's a good card, but not excellent. Mulch certainly makes it a better choice, and I DID find myself throwing away lands, but I wasn't flooded with mana often enough.
Now that I think about, If I played only milling spells and creatures, Mulch and Tracker's would pretty much do Looting's job on their own. However, as I tinker with Snapcaster, I might try some red-heavier variant with other utility and burn spells, and Faithless Looting as the way to dig for them. In other cases, what I mentioned above^.
3) Skaab Ruinator. Does soooo many jobs. If it doesn't get dissipated, control decks will suffer from this card. Stops flying threats, as well as Crusader. Either kills it and stays alive, or then you can just resurrect him. In a way he does have synergy with this deck: we play him from our graveyard, which is essentially card advantage. We can also fuel him, so that casting him 5 times in a row is actually realistic. It does weaken our frights, so if I should describe how to use him, I feel like quoting one of blues' finest card's flavor text: "It isn't for fighting: it is for when fighting's gone bad." I think that summarizes it pretty well. One in MB, one or more in SB, I think.
Against control: I leave mana open for mana leaks, play one threat at a time, mainboard Ruinators, play mental missteps (with the support cast of Snapcasters, as always) and memory's journeys. I catch and lure counter spells until I suddenly drop a Ghoultree, or wait until they are tapped out and play Sun Titan bringing back a Splinterfright.
How my first few turns usually go:
T1: mana dork
T2: Mulch, Tracker's Instinct or Armored Skaab, depending on the situation
T3: more spells or a threat, depending on the game
T4 - T6: setting the board, Ghoultrees and Splinterfrights
T6 - T8: Swinging heavily, and further fueling my threats in between.
If something needs special attention, I mainboard spells. How I interact with other decks (included both mainboard and sideboard cards). It's a bit crowded, as you can see, and some cutting will be done, as soon as I have decided which cards to keep:
Youtube Channel
I am contemplating adding more Dungeon Geists, but for now I'm testing Wing Splicer. It's a little easier on the mana base(2UU vs 3U) and Splicer allows me to add a small Golem theme.
Precursor Golem is a finisher in it's own right, but paired with Wing Splicer it's just nuts. With this configuration I don't have to rely on my graveyard to close out games. The same can't be said about Splinterfight, Ghoultree and Skaab Ruinator. All 3 of those cards are good finishers, but if your yard gets Nihil Spellbomb ed...It's game over.
I thought about adding Stitched Drake, meh. Seems good vs Red and Slagstorm, but not too exciting. Maybe a side board option.
I've tested Daybreak Ranger, but the Ranger has failed to impress. To take full advantage of Daybreak Ranger you need to add some amount of Red to the deck. As of now I'm focusing on UG, no splash. While the front side is good vs flying creatures, often times it's too slow. I haven't ruled Daybreak out, but it's on the bench for now.
I talked about Skaab Ruinator in my previous post, it's in my side board for Control. As for Niblis of the Breath, I tried it. It's not good enough IMO.
Here's what I'm currently testing:
4 Hinterland Harbor
3 Evolving Wilds
8 Island
8 Forest
8 Spells
2 Artful Dodge
2 gnaw to the Bone
4 tracker's Instincts
4 Birds of Paradise
2 llanowar Elves
4 Screeching Skaab
4 Armored Skaab
4 Splinterfright
2 Dungeon Geists
3 Wing Splicer
2 Precursor Golem
4 Ghoultree
I love probabilities, and yeah, I had the same result about getting one land in your opening hand. A list running mulch and dorks doesn't suffer from a lower mana count, but I would never ever run less than 24 lands in a last without them.
About the probability of not getting enough lands and milling power in opening hand --I think those numbers are irrerelevant, because as you said, they are dependant. Mulch and mana dorks would make things further complicated. I don't have to mull with this deck a lot, no more than with my other decks, and one of them is mono-white with very straightforward plan.
Youtube Channel
Memory's Journey answers Crawlers and Messengers quite well. I've been advocating it for a long time now, and I'm amazed nobody else has been using it. It has so many uses in this deck
It's really good against:
Gravecrawler
anything with Undying
Frites
Snapcaster/Moorland Haunt
Chandra's Phoenix
the mirror
Mill (generally not a good deck, but it can utterly destroy us if we're not careful. Journey buys a turn at the worst)
It also combos with Laboratory Maniac and/or Runic Repetition if you find yourself getting close to decking frequently
It's really meta dependent though. If none of the above scenarios apply to you, then it's probably unplayable
Standard:
GU Prophet
Legacy:
WBU Shared Fate
Trades
No difference
How did you actually calculate this? How many mill cards included? IMO all lists run 12 in the least. And about the land count, I doubt there is any list that would run that few lands and no mana dorks and mulchs. With those cards, even a one land opening hand is very viable. Those probabilities don't really say anything. 24 without ramping or mulchs, with those cards, you should check how often you get one land an at least one dork, and one one land and at least one mana dork and mulch. Land counts should then be 21 - 23.
EDIT: just got a bit offended at the harsh numbers, as you can see. Thanks for the research
Youtube Channel
The main idea with my deck is to get off of the reliance on mana dorks, worry less about a blisteringly fast opening and curve into threats without betting the entire match on getting the perfect opening hand and/or my opponent not having GY hate.
4 Wolfbitten Captive
4 Viridian Emissary
4 Armored Skaab
4 Splinterfright
4 Phyrexian Metamorph
4 Dungeon Geists
2 Acidic Slime
4 Ghoultree
1 Skaab Ruinator
4 Tracker's Instincts
3 Mulch
2 Artful Dodge
1 Cackling Counterpart
Land: 21
4 Hinterland Harbor
8 Forest
7 Islands
2 Buried Ruin
2 Gnaw to the Bone
4 Memory's Journey
4 Mental Misstep
1 Skaab Ruinator
3 Ratchet Bomb
1 Acidic Slime
Wolfbitten Captive: Lots of potential here! He's a powerful card versus control because he can sneak in under Mana Leak on the draw and beat face for a couple of turns. Yes--it dies to nearly everything, but the point is it is potent and draws removal. These are great qualities in a one drop.
Viridian Emissary: I'm convinced I like this better than Screeching Skaab. The last thing you want to do on turn 2 is blindly mill two cards if you've kept a 2 land hand. You could very well see two land off to the discard and not see another for a while. Another efficient beater and filters land out.
Mulch: I still believe this card is strong. You are guaranteed to drop each and every creature you draw into the gy. This is important for the midgame when enabling Splinterfrights, Ghoultrees and Skaab Ruinator.
Cackling Counterpart: The fourth Metamorph. At instant speed. Not dead in the graveyard, either.
No Gnaw to the Bone in my MB. Why? I'm planning on being more aggressive in game 1 and don't want to devote space to it. How many I bring in depends entirely on the match up.
Memory's Journey: Saves us from Surgical Extraction, mitigates Nihil, stops Geralf's Messenger, stops Frites, stops Snapcaster, etc. I'm trying this out for the first time.
Mental Misstep: I'm still not sure about this and Wondering if Beast Within isn't just better. Also, Skaab Ruinator might be all I need vs. Nihil. Ratchet Bomb vs. Tokens and flipped creatures. Still solid removal in my meta. A single Acidic Slime. Comes in vs. heavy Artifact and Equipment decks.
This deck has some very strong plays in the initial turns and won't falter as easily as my previous builds. I feel more in control of how I curve out when I have at least one Mulch to play. It's also still possible to hit 5 mana on turn 4 with an Emissary which makes Acidic Slime that much better.
Not a bad idea. Seems really good against control. Doesn't help with sweepers, but is a good response to targeted removal
I just really wish it was a creature
Standard:
GU Prophet
Legacy:
WBU Shared Fate
Trades
Might as well use Metamorph then >_< Artifacts and Creature copy.
Although Crypto lets you bounce around different creatures.
I'm with you when it comes to supporting Mulch! The card is House I really like that you tried a new perspective when building your deck. Fresh(-ish) ideas are more than welcome. I have thought about Cackling Counterpart myself, but never actually put it into testing due to the flashback cost and not counting as a creature. However... I think the card is slightly underplayed atm. Makes shenigans possible, surprise blockers and such. Now that you mentioned, I feel tempted to try him. If the card ends up in grave, Snapcaster reduces his flashback cost. The card doesn't count as a creature, but it extends your library since you can cast it from the grave. A card worth looking into.
Now that we're talking about small green creatures, what are you thoughts about Deranged Outcast? Now, I don't see him doing much, but certain deck builds can always surprise via making the most of cards that don't seem too useful at the first glance.
Youtube Channel
4x Birds of Paradise
1x Frost Titan
2x Llanowar Elves
2x Boneyard Wurm
2x Phyrexian Metamorph
1x Skaab Ruinator
4x Splinterfright
1x Armored Skaab
4x Ghoultree
3x Dungeon Geists
4x Screeching Skaab
2x Faithless Looting
2x Artful Dodge
1x Gnaw to the Bone
4x Tracker's Instincts
// Lands (23)
7x Forest
5x Island
1x Mountain
3x Rootbound Crag
2x Evolving Wilds
1x Sulfur Falls
4x Hinterland Harbor
1x Negate
2x Ancient Grudge
2x Flashfreeze
2x Grim Lavamancer
1x Ratchet Bomb
2x Thrun, the Last Troll
2x Daybreak Ranger
2x Gnaw to the Bone
1x Grafdigger's Cage
Round 1 vs Mono-Green Aggro: 1-2
Game 1: This was horrible. This matchup revolved entirely around swords. This deck can win provided it gets the swords under control. In short, the guy had a Sword of War and Peace and a Sword of Feast and Famine out really fast, and stuck it on a Strangleroot Geist. Even with Dungeon Geists, he just shifted both swords to a Birds of Paradise, and that was game.
Sideboard: +1 Ancient Grudge, +2 Flashfreeze, +1 Gnaw to the Bone
-1 Dungeon Geists, -1 Frost Titan, -2 Boneyard Wurm
Game 2: I reversed the entire matchup. I had an explosive opening where on Turn 3, I had a 3/3 Splinterfright followed by a Turn 4 Ghoultree. Even if surprisingly large Dungrove Elders stalled for time and made a game-ending swing impossible, I saw it fit to have a Phyrexian Metamorph copy a Sword of Feast and Famine, equip it to a Ghoultree, and seal the game with an Artful Dodge on Splinterfright.
Game 3: Exactly the same as game 1, just two turns slower. In hindsight, I kept a horrible hand, as I was banking on drawing a land in the first two turns, which didn't happen. Eventually it was a Birds of Paradise equipped with a sword and a Strangleroot Geist vs a Splinterfright at 1/1 and a phyrexian metamorph I could use. At 1 life.
Round 2 vs RB Vampires: 2-1
Game 1: Utter blowout. I didn't quite get a large enough creature out in time, and died on turn 5. Guy's plays consisted of such:
Turn 1: Land, Stromkirk Noble, 20 life
Turn 2: Land, Bloodcrazed Neonate, 19 life.
Turn 3: Land, Markov Blademaster, 16 life.
Turn 4: Burn effects everywhere, no blockers as a result since Splinterfright wasn't quite large enough.
Turn 5: Land, Double Vampirc Fury, so 5+6 (Blademaster)+7 (Neonate) + 7(Stromkirk Noble) = dead. Nothing my blockers could do as they came one turn too late.
Game 2: THRUN MVP ALL DAY EVERY DAY. I actually got some blockers online early for once, including a crucial turn 2 Armored Skaab. A well-timed Gnaw to the Bone and some grinding and eventually my Ghoultrees just swung past everything with Artful Dodge.
Game 3: Same thing as the last game.
Round 3 vs BW Humans: 1-2
Game 1: This guy was running a very "different" deck involving Skirsdag High Priest. When I casted a Dungeon Geist, I had a choice between three targets: a Champion of the Parish at 6/6, another champion at 2/2, and Skirsdag High Priest. I chose to lock the priest as I didn't need him making 5/5 demon tokens and killing me with them. It became a defensive game where no one could really swing as they'd die from being wide open the very next turn. The only attacks that occured consisted of Splinterfright stopping Sorin, Lord of Innistrad from reaching 6 counters or forcing me to throw chump blockers away.
Eventually the game had a 12/12 Champion, a 8/8 Champion, a 18/18(!) Geist-Honored Monk, and a bunch of 1/2 humans or tokens, some lifelink vampire tokens vs my two 9/9 Splinterfrights, a Ghoultree, a Screeching Skaabs, and a Birds of Paradise. When I untapped, I had 7 mana total including the birds, and an Artful Dodge in the graveyard. In hand was a Screeching Skaab and in the graveyard was a Tracker's Instincts, leaving the game up to what the next 6 cards in my library was. The last card both mill effects found was an Artful Dodge, so I flashed both and swung for 21 unblockable.
Games 2 and 3: I really don't remember these games well, but the guy's deck just got way out of hand. I kept losing blockers to Liliana of the Veil and Tragic Slips.
Round 4 vs Illusion and Architect: 0-2
Game 1 and 2: Worst mana screws possible. Kept milling off just lands and NOTHING ELSE. Even if I did target all their dragons with Artful Dodges, it just wasn't enough, especially once Lord of the Unreal went online. I've never had mana screws this bad, and I checked my deck after each game. I was at least 3 turns away from finding mana. Just horrible luck.
If I had to take a guess how the matchup would go, it'd play similarly to Delvers. The few blockers I did have online were promptly Vapor Snagged. The matchup is very slightly in our favor though, as with Gnaw to the Bone, we can race, although it's still a hard matchup. Illusions are ridiculously good, and we need cheap targeted effects to deal with them.
I think this highlights an important point about Dredge and one of it's main drawbacks: It's horribly inconsistent at times, even with good deck building.
Round 5 vs RB Vampires (another deck): 2-0
Game 1: Classic race scenario. A turn 2 Bloodcrazed Neonate followed by a turn 3 Crossway Vampire makes things tricky. As the board developed, two Splinterfrights together couldn't safely or efficiently block the increasingly-powerful vampires, but the vampire side couldn't afford to sit back either or our giant friends would just trample over for the kill. Ending life: 2 for me, 0 for them as I swung with 2 7/7 Splinterfrights on turn 6.
Game 2: The same thing, just a bit slower. The game was 19-1, with me far behind on life. I thought I was going to lose, but at 6 mana, a Frost Titan wouldn't save me. Even with the tapping effect, there was an extremely high chance they'd have a way to remove my blockers the next turn and just get the last point of damage through. Also, having Splinterfrights hit by Surgical Extraction sucks.
After drawing for the final turn, it was none other than a perfectly-timed Gnaw to the Bone. My opponent promptly conceded after I casted and Flashbacked Gnaw to the Bone for an insane 56 life. There was no way he could win once Thrun started swinging past everything and Ghoultrees were hitting the board.
Round 6 vs Wolf Run Ramp: 2-0
Game 1: This was easy. Even though my foe ramped into a turn 4 Primeval, he didn't quite find the lands he needed to win through a boosted Inkmoth Nexus. At 9 poison, he cast a Grave Titan, but that came far too late: I had two Ghoultrees, and an Artful Dodge I drew the very next turn. Swung for 20 unblockable, and that was game.
Game 2: This guy sideboarded in all sorts of graveyard hate. Extractions and Spellbombs ahoy, even though I didn't see any of the spellbombs he sided in. This was honestly much harder to win as the guy was able to destroy all of my blue lands making it impossible for me to cast my Dungeon Geists that were in hand or Artful Dodge on Ghoultrees I eventually casted.
The key card that won me this matchup? Phyrexian Metamorph. My opponent cast Glissa, which promptly met a Metamorph two turns later, killing both. At the end, while I had no blue lands or mana sources to speak of, my foe had an Acidic Slime, which was copied, and I detonated the one Inkmoth Nexus he could animate and defend with. My opponent conceded at this point as he knew there was no way to stabilize against two ghoultrees. My next draw was an Island, so he lost no matter what.
Result: 3-3
I could have done better, but I was just unlucky with the mill effects at times, and I have nothing but hatred towards the Scars swords.