By current, I of course mean Scars-Innistrad standard. So far from the few games I have seen this seems to be a slow format, but was wondering if anybody with more tournament experience could help me out here.
I need to plan out the tempo for my deck.
(Yes I realize that average game length will vary on what deck you play against, I'm mostly looking for an AVERAGE average game length, if that makes sense -- the average of playing against all deck types. If you want to go ahead and break it down for each deck, that would be even better!)
its slower than the previous standard but only by a little.
the nuts draws on aggro decks can kill on turn 4 but thats extremely rare/inconsistent. most aggro decks can reliably kill on turn 5 or 6, even through some light resistance.
GW Tokens and Wolf Run Ramp both have extremely potent midgames that can develop an overwhelming board position on turn 4 and 5 and deliver a nearly guaranteed kill (even through heavy resistance) on turn 6 or 7.
control decks, obviously, are much slower in actually delivering a kill. they do however start to gain very large amounts of card advantage around turn 5 when Snapcaster Mage starts to become live.
but thats just the fundamental turn speed of these decks. in games of real magic there's alot of interaction and it takes longer. and variance works towards this as well, without things like Preordain its much harder to get smooth draws and hit optimal tempo plays. so for real games consider that you should add a few turns to those fundamental turns listed above.
its slower than the previous standard but only by a little.
the nuts draws on aggro decks can kill on turn 4 but thats extremely rare/inconsistent. most aggro decks can reliably kill on turn 5 or 6, even through some light resistance.
GW Tokens and Wolf Run Ramp both have extremely potent midgames that can develop an overwhelming board position on turn 4 and 5 and deliver a nearly guaranteed kill (even through heavy resistance) on turn 6 or 7.
control decks, obviously, are much slower in actually delivering a kill. they do however start to gain very large amounts of card advantage around turn 5 when Snapcaster Mage starts to become live.
but thats just the fundamental turn speed of these decks. in games of real magic there's alot of interaction and it takes longer. and variance works towards this as well, without things like Preordain its much harder to get smooth draws and hit optimal tempo plays. so for real games consider that you should add a few turns to those fundamental turns listed above.
Actually Tempered Steel and RDW can both "win" on turn 4. They might not have actually killed the opponent, but they will have the other guy dead on board. Steel can get:
T1: Memnite + Vault Skirge
T2: Glint Hawk Idol, swing 2
T3: Steel + Memnite, swing 10 (If no memnite, swing 6)
T4: swing 10-13.
That's fairly common, it's only 3-4 creatures.
Aggro is still pretty much "I win by turn 4," but not "I win by turn 3" anymore.
It's really interesting to see that aggro takes 4+ turns now to win. It seems like 3 used to be the target. I think I also remember reading that in Alara/Zen/Scars standard (the two year period when I first started playing magic), a game would usually be decided (if not already won) by turn 5 no matter what deck was used. It's definitely good to see things slowing down!
It seems kind of interesting that Solar Flare was only mentioned by one person (and then with a rather sarcastic/exaggerated answer). Watching a few solar flare mirror matches is really what inspired this thread. I saw one guy even lose by milling! It seems to me that a loss by milling would still get done by turn 15-20, just because all of the forbidden alchemy/nephalia drownyard/consecrated sphinx shenanigans they were pulling.
The number of total turns don't matter when planning your deck. You need to build around the "fundamental turns" as Zvi Mowshowitz put it. In standard right now, I'd say the fundamental turn is turn 4. Most of the decks in the format usually start trying to do what they are supposed to do on turn 4 (sometimes it's 3, sometimes 5, but 4 is a good average). Another would be turn 6 (i.e. when Titan mana becomes available)
When working out the mana curve of your deck, you want to make sure you have strong plays on those turns or answers to strong plays on those turns
Average, I'd say seven - nine turns. Games can take as little as four turns to resolve, or as long as twenty-ish. Without getting into the complexity of the matter, that's as simple of a general answer as I can give.
Whether or not it worked does not validate the play. That's hindsight probability. Let's say I offered you a bet -- I'm going to flip a coin and if it's heads, I'll give you 1 dollar but if it's tails, you'll give me 2 dollars. This is obviously a terrible bet for you. Accepting it is a bad decision. You can't justify it afterwards by arguing that you won the flip, therefore you made the right decision.
I've seen my friends go 30-40 mins in one game of U/W Blade vs Solar Flare. Im not sure if that is long, but as an aggro player, it felt forever when I was watching them.
RDW seems like they can end it on turn 4-5 pretty much, after that their steam roller weasr off and they get stomped. My solar flare has much sidebored vs RDW and WW for this reason... Nothing like turn 6-8 seeing the RDW only have a few 1drops left in hsi hand while I am dropping suntitans and wurmcoils.
Essentially you look at it in terms of goldfishing.
RDW 3-5
Tokens 4-6
WRR 5-8+
solar flare 7-15+
UB control 8-?
The fastest aggro deck will always set the precedence, because we don't have any combo decks that win fast, and wont have any in standard that don't get emergency banned.
The format is pretty slow, average win turn for fast decks is probably 5, but that is also goldfishing. You will see turns 7-8 even against aggro decks right now if that is the answer your looking for.
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The number of total turns don't matter when planning your deck. You need to build around the "fundamental turns" as Zvi Mowshowitz put it. In standard right now, I'd say the fundamental turn is turn 4. Most of the decks in the format usually start trying to do what they are supposed to do on turn 4 (sometimes it's 3, sometimes 5, but 4 is a good average). Another would be turn 6 (i.e. when Titan mana becomes available)
When working out the mana curve of your deck, you want to make sure you have strong plays on those turns or answers to strong plays on those turns
I'd say this is dead-on in terms of "Fundamental Turn".
In caw's era, it was a fundamental turn2, turn4 format, where those two turns were the most critical to early board development.
Now, most decks are turn 4 to execute their plan: Wolf run wants its titan down on turn 4. Solar flare wants to reanimate something then, snapcaster decks want to snapcast leak or doom blade then, RDW wants to crack shrine or play its curve toppers then, etc. Most aggro decks goldfish at turn 5 average kills, meaning their turn 4 plays are their critical ones.
A few slower decks are 5-6 (PW control), and few faster decks are turn 3. (e.g. tempered steel)
Accelerating your deck ahead of that reduces consistency but allows you to get ahead in mirror matches. Dungrove decks probably have a fundamental turn of 3.5 or so (turn 3 primal hunter or sword+equip plays), which is one of the reasons it does so well in a race-based mirror.
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I need to plan out the tempo for my deck.
(Yes I realize that average game length will vary on what deck you play against, I'm mostly looking for an AVERAGE average game length, if that makes sense -- the average of playing against all deck types. If you want to go ahead and break it down for each deck, that would be even better!)
Thanks in advance!
the nuts draws on aggro decks can kill on turn 4 but thats extremely rare/inconsistent. most aggro decks can reliably kill on turn 5 or 6, even through some light resistance.
GW Tokens and Wolf Run Ramp both have extremely potent midgames that can develop an overwhelming board position on turn 4 and 5 and deliver a nearly guaranteed kill (even through heavy resistance) on turn 6 or 7.
control decks, obviously, are much slower in actually delivering a kill. they do however start to gain very large amounts of card advantage around turn 5 when Snapcaster Mage starts to become live.
but thats just the fundamental turn speed of these decks. in games of real magic there's alot of interaction and it takes longer. and variance works towards this as well, without things like Preordain its much harder to get smooth draws and hit optimal tempo plays. so for real games consider that you should add a few turns to those fundamental turns listed above.
N/A
Modern:
Grishoalbrand / Grixis Death's Shadow / Jeskai Control / UW Control
Actually Tempered Steel and RDW can both "win" on turn 4. They might not have actually killed the opponent, but they will have the other guy dead on board. Steel can get:
T1: Memnite + Vault Skirge
T2: Glint Hawk Idol, swing 2
T3: Steel + Memnite, swing 10 (If no memnite, swing 6)
T4: swing 10-13.
That's fairly common, it's only 3-4 creatures.
Aggro is still pretty much "I win by turn 4," but not "I win by turn 3" anymore.
Agreed on other points though.
Edit: I derped, edited
It's really interesting to see that aggro takes 4+ turns now to win. It seems like 3 used to be the target. I think I also remember reading that in Alara/Zen/Scars standard (the two year period when I first started playing magic), a game would usually be decided (if not already won) by turn 5 no matter what deck was used. It's definitely good to see things slowing down!
It seems kind of interesting that Solar Flare was only mentioned by one person (and then with a rather sarcastic/exaggerated answer). Watching a few solar flare mirror matches is really what inspired this thread. I saw one guy even lose by milling! It seems to me that a loss by milling would still get done by turn 15-20, just because all of the forbidden alchemy/nephalia drownyard/consecrated sphinx shenanigans they were pulling.
Any more input on solar flare?
When working out the mana curve of your deck, you want to make sure you have strong plays on those turns or answers to strong plays on those turns
Standard:
GU Prophet
Legacy:
WBU Shared Fate
Trades
~~~~~~~~~
Too many to list efficiently. Find me online with the same SN if you want to play, or message me here to set up a time to play.
Modern
~~~~~~~~~
Whatever pile of 75 I throw together the night before without testing. Usually: :symb::symu::symg:
Standard
UR Control
Modern
Merfolk
Burn
Avacyn did nothing wrong!
Purify Innistrad!
#Purge
EDH
BU LazavUB
GU Momir VigUG
RDW 3-5
Tokens 4-6
WRR 5-8+
solar flare 7-15+
UB control 8-?
The fastest aggro deck will always set the precedence, because we don't have any combo decks that win fast, and wont have any in standard that don't get emergency banned.
The format is pretty slow, average win turn for fast decks is probably 5, but that is also goldfishing. You will see turns 7-8 even against aggro decks right now if that is the answer your looking for.
Albert Einstein
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I'd say this is dead-on in terms of "Fundamental Turn".
In caw's era, it was a fundamental turn2, turn4 format, where those two turns were the most critical to early board development.
Now, most decks are turn 4 to execute their plan: Wolf run wants its titan down on turn 4. Solar flare wants to reanimate something then, snapcaster decks want to snapcast leak or doom blade then, RDW wants to crack shrine or play its curve toppers then, etc. Most aggro decks goldfish at turn 5 average kills, meaning their turn 4 plays are their critical ones.
A few slower decks are 5-6 (PW control), and few faster decks are turn 3. (e.g. tempered steel)
Accelerating your deck ahead of that reduces consistency but allows you to get ahead in mirror matches. Dungrove decks probably have a fundamental turn of 3.5 or so (turn 3 primal hunter or sword+equip plays), which is one of the reasons it does so well in a race-based mirror.