Forerunner of Slaughter could be good in the RB build. Solid aggressive 2-drop that has haste as a 3-drop. Gives our reanimated Scroungers, topdecked Copters, and Nalaar Thopters haste too. I'm thinking I'll try a build trying two off, cutting a Pia and the random Bushwhacker from the stock list. Just needs a slight adjustment to the manabase to accomodate the slightly earlier Black requirements.
I kind of want to do this but am worried about the mana base since the deck is almost mono red. Do you need to add the Zendikar land? With hubs and ruins it just seems so bad.. I wonder if it's worth.
The deck wants 19x Red and 13x Black with Forerunner. If you count each Hub as 1x source of each (generous), then the stock deck already has 12 sources of Black. So minimum would be to swap a Mountain for one Marsh.
I'm going to try 3x Marsh, swapping out another Swamp and Mountain from above for slightly more reliable sources, since Hub is just Tendo Ice Bridge in this deck. Remember that you can reveal Smouldering Marsh to Foreboding Ruins, so it actually won't change the Ruins consistency at all.
Why exactly are people running 4 Aether hub (at least at SCG) instead of 4 smouldering marsh? Is it because aether hub is always live?
The way I see it, having something which is permanently an RB dual is more valuable to me than a card which gives me one red or black one time unless I get another hub, yet always comes in untapped.
Can some invalidate my thought process? Most people are running Hub so it must be good, please explain why it's better than marsh.
It comes into play untapped, that's pretty much it. It's an aggro deck, so losing a turn from a tapped land in the first three turns is pretty bad. That being said, I just ran the updated list I eluded to above and it did well with 3 Marshes. I can only remember 1 game it being relevant.
Round 1: Mono Blue Aetherworks Reservoir 2-0
The deck had a lot of bounce and lifegain from the Reservoir, but it was very slow to get its engine online. I think he was a turn or two from properly going off each time, but I was able to just get there with the burn. For example Game 1, he bounced all of my creatures while attacking for lethal. I sac'd a Courier with a stack of cards underneath, madnesses a Fiery Temper, and drew a Flow off the Courier with just enough mana for exact damage. Second game I sided in Transgress. A T3 transgress took his Reservoir and he just couldn't find anything relevant after that, despite some delay tactics with bounce spells.
Round 2: UW Flash Control 2-0
I think I played game 1 pretty badly, but he said he didn't feel like he played it perfectly either, but ended up pulling it out in a long drawn out game where I reanimated Scroungers multiple times. For a while I had him on 1 life and couldn't come up with the last point of damage. Gearhulk and Avacyn were both pretty scary. Game 2, I sided out my Incendiary Flow, thinking that I didn't want sorcery speed stuff against all of his flash creatures and counters. He stalled on 3 land for a couple of turns, which gave me the opening to push the aggression.
Round 3: RW Dwarven Vehicles 2-0
He had a good start with Toolcrafter into Copter into Depala. But a couple of Fiery Tempers halted his aggression. He didn't seem to draw any interaction and I was able to push through for the win after dismantling his board. Depala is pretty annoying though, as you don't get a chance to keep her from getting value from the tap. You also cannot shoot the Copter out of the sky with Temper, as its immediately a 4/4. I sided in 13 cards and then played control game 2. Killed all of his stuff and then Call of the Bloodline pretty much won the game on its own. His Needle Spires could not race.
Round 4: Mono Red Aggro 2-0
Just plain old mono red aggro with Bushwhacker. It did have Fleetwheel Cruiser on the top end, but no Copter. Game 1 it turned into a race. I believe he missed a land drop early which slowed him just enough for me to overtake the damage race from his Fleetwheel. Though last turn, I was a little worried he had me when I was at 11 life, as I had tapped out to attack him with everything and put him within lethal next turn. Game 2, I sided in my 13 card anti-aggro package and played control, ran him out of cards, and finished it off with an ultimated Chandra emblem.
Reservoir: +2 Transgress, +2 Brutality, -4 Disintegration
More or less I wanted to catch their Aetherworks on T3 Transgress, and otherwise disrupt their bounce spells. They had very few targets for Disintegration (Glint Crane basically), so it was an easy cut.
UW Control: +2 Transgress, +2 Brutality, -4 Incendiary Flow
Catch their Avacyns and Gearhulks with Transgress on T4. Since I was siding in some spells, I needed to cut some spells so I could remain on the beatdown plan. Flow seemed awkward vs all their instant speed stuff like Queller, Selfless Spirit, and Avacyn, so I wanted to play instant speed with my interaction as much as possible. That meant Temper and Disintegrate were staying in and Flow was coming out.
R/X Aggro: +2 Brutality, +2 Axe, +2 Bloodline, +2 Priest, +2 Chandra, +3 Weaver, -3 Nalaar, -4 Copter, -2 Fleetwheel, -2 Key, -2 Forerunner
Weaver is the obvious one. The rest is more or less cut all the vehicles, and board in a stack of removal and late game engines. Cutting Copter makes their reactive plan against my own Copters worse as well. Stuff like Fragmentize bad. This did make my Call of the Bloodline worse, but that was acceptable, since I could potentially get value before it was destroyed. Also, siding out vehicles made sense vs RW largely because they would outclass my defensive Copter with their pumped Copter, and was awkward with the lower creature count after boarding. Priest is sort of like the Thunderbreak of the sideboard. A hard to kill size that often kills something the turn it comes into play. Bloodline and Chandra were both engines that would win the game once I stablized the board. Given I was siding in some 4-drops and 3-drops, I focused on cutting similar CMC threats like Nalaar and Fleetwheel so my curve wasn't wrecked. Maybe Scrounger should come out vs aggro, but I figured I could discard it early to Brutality, Axe, or Bloodline and reanimate when I was looking to go on the offensive.
I think RB has a lot more options to deal with the upcoming play field in standard. Unfortunately it's going to be at least another week before I get to go to FNM, though, so I don't have much to contribute as far as gameplay goes yet. Cards are still coming for the deck due to shipment mishaps and delays it seems.
So I take it that Call the Bloodline is for grinding it out with the other decks? Also, I think keeping Scrounger in is a good call when bringing in Collective Brutality.
My own deck is going to be playing around with Eternal Scourge as a way to grind it out against removal heavy decks as they don't have any way to get rid of it while also comboing with cards like Scrapheap Scrounger. Unfortunately, that doesn't change the fact it's still a 3/3 and nothing more, so that can be a lot against the card.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I think the key to the RG Pummeler matchup is to kill all their stuff. Their deck is full of pump spells and so they will end up with a bunch of dead cards. One of the pumps is a sorcery and one can only work when they are attacking, so it's fairly easy to play around. The only tricky one is Blossoming Defense. If you play on your turn with your removal, you can also force them to spend their energy or pumps without getting a good attack out of it.
I'd be playing Galvanic Bombardments in the side if you want more tools against them. It's very mana efficient, so you can potentially force them to Blossom or double up and then still have mana to respond with a second removal at instant speed.
Transgress is the best tool we have for Marvel. You really need to prevent it from hitting the board. Killing it afterwards generally doesn't matter since they'll get their activation. If you are running into it a lot then I'd load up on a full set of Transgress in the side. Just make sure that you are being really aggressive still.
It's no mystery. We have to deal with Aetherworks Marvel consistently.
I'm on the RB Build and thought that 4x Transgress the mind may be enough. But they may not. Any ideas or should I splash blue and go 3x Negate 2x Ceremonious Rejection SB (or even main negates)
I've done dry run testing against Aetherworks Marvel and it's a tough matchup mostly because red is lacking an instant speed artifact removal spell. I've ended up trying out Ruinous Gremlin as it's the only mono-red option that can stop things instant speed. It can still pilot copters, so it has that going for it, but it's also vulnerable to removal so it's more of a sideboard option for the time being. Also had an interesting play against my friend when I blocked two creatures and killed a third by using the gremlin as a blocker, piloted the copter with it, and THEN sacrificed it to kill another attacker before blocking with the copter. That third creature was a Fleetwheel cruiser. Still, I really don't like how that is red's one way to kill artifacts.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Also had an interesting play against my friend when I blocked two creatures and killed a third by using the gremlin as a blocker, piloted the copter with it, and THEN sacrificed it to kill another attacker before blocking with the copter. That third creature was a Fleetwheel cruiser. Still, I really don't like how that is red's one way to kill artifacts.
I don't think that's actually legal. As far as I know, you can't crew during the "declare blockers" phase - it has to be done as an effect after attacker are declared. So, by crewing your Copter, you were actually moving to effects after blocking, and were saying that you were done declaring blockers. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...
Also had an interesting play against my friend when I blocked two creatures and killed a third by using the gremlin as a blocker, piloted the copter with it, and THEN sacrificed it to kill another attacker before blocking with the copter. That third creature was a Fleetwheel cruiser. Still, I really don't like how that is red's one way to kill artifacts.
I don't think that's actually legal. As far as I know, you can't crew during the "declare blockers" phase - it has to be done as an effect after attacker are declared. So, by crewing your Copter, you were actually moving to effects after blocking, and were saying that you were done declaring blockers. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...
You are probably right. It was a casual match anyway, but the point stands you can still use it to crew something so it isn't a completely dead play. Green is just OP this push because it still has access to the best instant removal for artifacts in current standard.
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Yeah, you have to announce all of your blocks at the same time. You cannot both block with a creature and use it to crew so that the vehicle can block.
Also, Gremlin is about the best we have for actual artifact removal. I think it's a good option vs Aetherworks Reservoir, but I don't like it against Marvel. Generally the play pattern for the marvel user is going to be play and activate immediately. We won't get an opportunity to stop it from happening once it hits the board. Hence, Transgress being the best option we have. You could also consider Lost Legacy to remove Ulamog and increase their whiff rate, but that doesn't sound good.
I actually went over to my LGS and bought them out of their 3 copies when you mentioned it. The card is really good thanks to being able to give anything haste for one more mana and it's undervalued since aggro was not a big part of the BFZ meta. The real winner in the deck, though, is Scrapheap Scrounger. Against any kind of control deck it's a tough nut to crack, as there aren't a lot of ways right now to interact with it once it hits the graveyard. I've been working on a impact tremors / reckless fireweaver deck for Frontier since my LGS is running it that is going to use it too.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Main change is going up to 3 Cruisers over the Bushwhackers. It appears almost all the lists cut Bushwhacker entirely from their 75x. The rest is stock standard. There were a couple of lists running Bloodhall Priest, including the one of the best record. It ended up being pretty close on the cut between the first Priest and the 3rd Cruiser. I think in an aggro meta, a Priest or two main is probably correct given how well it performed in my own play with the deck.
The sideboards have changed dramatically. Many decks played a full set of Transgress. A lot of them also cut Weaver of Lightning entirely. Kalitas and Galvanic Bombardment was a much more common goto for those slots. Weaver still was played by enough decks to get a slot depending on how you round up the averages on the other cards. I don't know how I feel about adding Kalitas with our manabase, but I can see cutting Weaver. It underperformed in most of the games I played it. I think with the Meta likely to spike on the URx control decks, we'll be right to start cutting them for more tools against the control decks. Chandra still got a good amount of play. One deck even played a full set in the sideboard. Perhaps a good option in the control matchup.
I've weighted the 24pt decklists 3x, the 21pt decklists 2x, and the 18pt decklists 1x. I use Karsten's method for the mainboard spells. For manabase, I merely look at simple averages across the decklists. Sideboard, I total the number of copies between all decklists, and then weight that by the frequency of appearances (i.e. number of lists that ran the card), and sort by weighting. Then I take an average number of copies (averaging amongst only the decklists that ran that card) and use those numbers to fill out a sideboard.
ONE DROPS Neonate & Courier over Gorger and Apprentice
Even while running Olivia main and Tormentor in SB, I opt out of including Gorger due to it's lack of versatility. I don't feel it's ability offers enough since no vampires (save the niche Tormentor) cost over 3. (I consider Priest a 3 drop) However the ability to EOT vamps into play for pseudo-haste can not be understated, but you would need to be holding back cards.
Apprentice is undoubtedly strong, and obviously crews once facing an enemy x/3. But, like Goger it's a god awful topdeck and I would much rather pseudo-cycle a Neonate if need be.
Speaking of Neonate, I feel it's possible for it to do on par damage as an Apprentice due to menace. Also prefer it for the aforementioned card draw. Courier can generate ludicrous card advantage and Priest shock shenanigans. It is however outmatched easily and quickly vs. some decks, but then it becomes discard fodder or gets punted post-sideboard.
TWO & THREE DROPS Heir to Falkenrath & Olivia over Pia and Bushwhacker
Scrounger & Priest, No Fleetwheel Cruiser
I'm just not hype for Pia. There, I said it. 3 power for 3, sure, but she lacks..... zazz. Olivia on t3 can generate something degenerate like a t4 5/5 hasted double shock Priest. Also she flies and this build is more evasive than the other builds we have seen thus far. And that's where Heir also comes in. I just think this card is very strong. Strong enough to bail on Pia. Your opponent doesn't want to deal with two 3 power fliers. On that note I've considered running 3 Olivias and cutting a Courier.
Bushwhacker doesn't even belong in this deck as far as I'm concerned. But now I have a hankering to brew GarrisonWhack.
Scrounger gets the nod because it just doesn't die.
Priest is a three drop! I'm sad if I have to tap 4 lands for this. I have also omitted Fleetwheel from the build, as I feel it's too fragile and costs 4. This build tops off at 3. Don't forget... Priest is a three drop!
Removal/Burn spells and Keys, no change.
SIDEBOARD
I felt these cards stand up against the early meta the best in theory and vs. the following decks. Of all the areas I'm looking for feedback in, the sideboard takes priority as I have never felt I had a good handle on how to construct them.
vs. RW Token & RG NRG, Sultai Midrange
+3 Biting Rain
+2 Kalitas
-4 Courier
-1 Key
Sub Sabotage for Rain vs. Sultai.
It seems to me, Biting Rain absolutely wrecks RW token. Pending variations in builds, it should kill everything on their board save Copter
vs. Grixis Control, UR Spells, Jeskai Control
+3 Elusive Tormentor
-2 Keys
-1 Courier
These decks have little in the way of creatures (Jeskai is stronger in this regard) and seem like they would have a difficult time dealing with Tormentor as long as you kept some ammo in the clip to flip him when needed.
vs. Aetherworks & Delirium
+3 Lost Legacy
+2 Sinister Concoction
-3 Disintegration
-2 Keys (Aetherworks)
-2 Courier (Delirium)
I'll gladly let you draw 3-4 cards to wipe out your win con. Concoction is an Emrakul panic button.
vs. RW Vehicle, Mardu Vehicle, UW Flash
+3 Rain
+2 Sabotage
+2 Kalitas
-4 Courier
-1 Each Removal Spell
Same reasoning as vs. RW Token. Sabotage will destroy RW and Mardu pre or mid combat, killing everything except Looter Scooter crewed by Veteran. UW suffers more from Rain, making Selfless Spirit much weaker, but the Sabo is still needed for their x/3s
vs. every other possible deck in the format
¯\(°_o)/¯. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Notable Exclusions
Lightning Axe - Anything this can kill Disintegration can kill better.
Transgress - Not an aggro card.
Galvanic Bombardment - Better in the spells deck.
Weaver - Too slow, defensive.
Harness Lightning - Doesn't hit the face.
The main seems interesting. I like that you have a lot of flying threats.
I don't like the sideboard much though. At the very least, I think you'll want to make room for 2-4 Transgress the Mind. Also, the sweepers seem more harmful than they are beneficial.
Thanks for taking the time to post, format and average these decks Nevelo. It's interesting to see the similarities, and also the nuances between the lists. One thing that I find interesting/surprising is the number of creatures. Take the aggregate list as an example. There are seven vehicles and 16 creatures. According to Frank Karsten's stats, to reliably crew a vehicle by turn 5, that would need 23 creatures! Are his numbers that way off, or are the vehicles being seen as secondary to the aggro plan? I know Pia drops a Thopter as well, but even counting them as an extra couple of creatures, that doesn't come close to Frank's estimates...
I'm going to be trying a list close to the aggregate list this week, but staying mono. I've not been able to get the lands I need to go RB. The list will be almost the same creature package (swapping two Pias for two Sin Prodder to try for more card drawing), and will run Collective Defiance instead of Disintegration. I've also been running into a few ground based decks at my store, so I'm going to try Goldnight Castigator as my 4-drop. Should be unexpected, so might give me an edge. We'll see!
Karsten's math is based on the premise: "We are happy if our deck is such that there is at least a 90% probability that the number of creatures we draw in our top 12 cards strictly exceeds the number of Vehicles in our top 12 cards. [emphasis added]".
I don't know if that's the right way to approach the problem in the case of the BR deck. We have recursive threats (Scrounger) and threats that produce extra bodies (Pia Nalaar). We also have Vehicles that drive themselves when they are first cast (Cruiser). Lastly, we can reasonably expect our opponents to prioritize killing our Vehicle over our pilot, so having an excess of pilots isn't necessarily needed. Add into the fact that we will potentially get filtering from Copters, and draw extra cards from Couriers, it isn't really all that straight forward.
If we instead look at the probabilities of drawing at least as many creatures as we do vehicles, then the math works out differently. I did this for top 11 cards (e.g. T5 on the Play)
Creatures/Vehicles = Probability
16/7 = 88.3%
17/7 = 89.8%
18/7 = 91.1%
16/6 = 90.9%
17/6 = 92.2%
18/6 = 93.3%
As you can see, if you are only running 6 vehicles, which many of the lists do, 16 creatures seems perfectly fine. If instead you are running 7 vehicles, maybe 17 creatures is better. I think there is enough grey area around all the other variables, that 16/7 as per the stock list, is perfectly reasonable. Indeed, most of the top performing decks ran exactly that.
@JonInWherever: Also, I've updated the main post again with the new list. You might have a look at the Mono Red list I've suggested as an alternate build. I'm not sure if you have gotten the Aether Hubs and the Scroungers, but having black for Scrounger isn't super important early. You could just run Hubs for the recursion and have Defiance and/or Chandra in the place of the Disintegrates.
I'm moderately surprised that the 4 Alms of the Pain variant with more access to black mana isn't topping as much as the more general "probably just runs unlicensed and scrounger" route.
Could it be that the fact that the Alms variant very much needs to have smouldering marsh slows it down, while the more normal variant can rely on hub?
Or is Alms just not as good as I thought, even with key/copter. To be fair, Alms builds usually can't fit in incendiary flow.
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I kind of want to do this but am worried about the mana base since the deck is almost mono red. Do you need to add the Zendikar land? With hubs and ruins it just seems so bad.. I wonder if it's worth.
4 Aether Hub
4 Swamp
1 Smoldering Marsh
10 Mountain
I'm going to try 3x Marsh, swapping out another Swamp and Mountain from above for slightly more reliable sources, since Hub is just Tendo Ice Bridge in this deck. Remember that you can reveal Smouldering Marsh to Foreboding Ruins, so it actually won't change the Ruins consistency at all.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
The way I see it, having something which is permanently an RB dual is more valuable to me than a card which gives me one red or black one time unless I get another hub, yet always comes in untapped.
Can some invalidate my thought process? Most people are running Hub so it must be good, please explain why it's better than marsh.
4-0 tonight at FNM with the below:
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
2 Forerunner of Slaughter
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
3 Pia Nalaar
Spells (20)
2 Key to the City
4 Incendiary Flow
4 Smuggler's Copter
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
3 Smoldering Marsh
3 Swamp
4 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
9 Mountain
2 Lightning Axe
2 Call the Bloodline
2 Collective Brutality
2 Transgress the Mind
3 Weaver of Lightning
2 Bloodhall Priest
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
Round 1: Mono Blue Aetherworks Reservoir 2-0
The deck had a lot of bounce and lifegain from the Reservoir, but it was very slow to get its engine online. I think he was a turn or two from properly going off each time, but I was able to just get there with the burn. For example Game 1, he bounced all of my creatures while attacking for lethal. I sac'd a Courier with a stack of cards underneath, madnesses a Fiery Temper, and drew a Flow off the Courier with just enough mana for exact damage. Second game I sided in Transgress. A T3 transgress took his Reservoir and he just couldn't find anything relevant after that, despite some delay tactics with bounce spells.
Round 2: UW Flash Control 2-0
I think I played game 1 pretty badly, but he said he didn't feel like he played it perfectly either, but ended up pulling it out in a long drawn out game where I reanimated Scroungers multiple times. For a while I had him on 1 life and couldn't come up with the last point of damage. Gearhulk and Avacyn were both pretty scary. Game 2, I sided out my Incendiary Flow, thinking that I didn't want sorcery speed stuff against all of his flash creatures and counters. He stalled on 3 land for a couple of turns, which gave me the opening to push the aggression.
Round 3: RW Dwarven Vehicles 2-0
He had a good start with Toolcrafter into Copter into Depala. But a couple of Fiery Tempers halted his aggression. He didn't seem to draw any interaction and I was able to push through for the win after dismantling his board. Depala is pretty annoying though, as you don't get a chance to keep her from getting value from the tap. You also cannot shoot the Copter out of the sky with Temper, as its immediately a 4/4. I sided in 13 cards and then played control game 2. Killed all of his stuff and then Call of the Bloodline pretty much won the game on its own. His Needle Spires could not race.
Round 4: Mono Red Aggro 2-0
Just plain old mono red aggro with Bushwhacker. It did have Fleetwheel Cruiser on the top end, but no Copter. Game 1 it turned into a race. I believe he missed a land drop early which slowed him just enough for me to overtake the damage race from his Fleetwheel. Though last turn, I was a little worried he had me when I was at 11 life, as I had tapped out to attack him with everything and put him within lethal next turn. Game 2, I sided in my 13 card anti-aggro package and played control, ran him out of cards, and finished it off with an ultimated Chandra emblem.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
More or less I wanted to catch their Aetherworks on T3 Transgress, and otherwise disrupt their bounce spells. They had very few targets for Disintegration (Glint Crane basically), so it was an easy cut.
UW Control: +2 Transgress, +2 Brutality, -4 Incendiary Flow
Catch their Avacyns and Gearhulks with Transgress on T4. Since I was siding in some spells, I needed to cut some spells so I could remain on the beatdown plan. Flow seemed awkward vs all their instant speed stuff like Queller, Selfless Spirit, and Avacyn, so I wanted to play instant speed with my interaction as much as possible. That meant Temper and Disintegrate were staying in and Flow was coming out.
R/X Aggro: +2 Brutality, +2 Axe, +2 Bloodline, +2 Priest, +2 Chandra, +3 Weaver, -3 Nalaar, -4 Copter, -2 Fleetwheel, -2 Key, -2 Forerunner
Weaver is the obvious one. The rest is more or less cut all the vehicles, and board in a stack of removal and late game engines. Cutting Copter makes their reactive plan against my own Copters worse as well. Stuff like Fragmentize bad. This did make my Call of the Bloodline worse, but that was acceptable, since I could potentially get value before it was destroyed. Also, siding out vehicles made sense vs RW largely because they would outclass my defensive Copter with their pumped Copter, and was awkward with the lower creature count after boarding. Priest is sort of like the Thunderbreak of the sideboard. A hard to kill size that often kills something the turn it comes into play. Bloodline and Chandra were both engines that would win the game once I stablized the board. Given I was siding in some 4-drops and 3-drops, I focused on cutting similar CMC threats like Nalaar and Fleetwheel so my curve wasn't wrecked. Maybe Scrounger should come out vs aggro, but I figured I could discard it early to Brutality, Axe, or Bloodline and reanimate when I was looking to go on the offensive.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
So I take it that Call the Bloodline is for grinding it out with the other decks? Also, I think keeping Scrounger in is a good call when bringing in Collective Brutality.
My own deck is going to be playing around with Eternal Scourge as a way to grind it out against removal heavy decks as they don't have any way to get rid of it while also comboing with cards like Scrapheap Scrounger. Unfortunately, that doesn't change the fact it's still a 3/3 and nothing more, so that can be a lot against the card.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Took out Falkenrsth Gorgers (they are awful), and replaced them with 2 Pias and 2 Harnessed lightning.
So far my problems are faster agro decks (pummeler) and UG/Temur aetherwprks marvel.
I cant find a card that is good for any of those decks. Transgress the mind sort of works against marvel, but it's a long shot.
Any comments?
I'd be playing Galvanic Bombardments in the side if you want more tools against them. It's very mana efficient, so you can potentially force them to Blossom or double up and then still have mana to respond with a second removal at instant speed.
Transgress is the best tool we have for Marvel. You really need to prevent it from hitting the board. Killing it afterwards generally doesn't matter since they'll get their activation. If you are running into it a lot then I'd load up on a full set of Transgress in the side. Just make sure that you are being really aggressive still.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I've done dry run testing against Aetherworks Marvel and it's a tough matchup mostly because red is lacking an instant speed artifact removal spell. I've ended up trying out Ruinous Gremlin as it's the only mono-red option that can stop things instant speed. It can still pilot copters, so it has that going for it, but it's also vulnerable to removal so it's more of a sideboard option for the time being. Also had an interesting play against my friend when I blocked two creatures and killed a third by using the gremlin as a blocker, piloted the copter with it, and THEN sacrificed it to kill another attacker before blocking with the copter. That third creature was a Fleetwheel cruiser. Still, I really don't like how that is red's one way to kill artifacts.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I don't think that's actually legal. As far as I know, you can't crew during the "declare blockers" phase - it has to be done as an effect after attacker are declared. So, by crewing your Copter, you were actually moving to effects after blocking, and were saying that you were done declaring blockers. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...
You are probably right. It was a casual match anyway, but the point stands you can still use it to crew something so it isn't a completely dead play. Green is just OP this push because it still has access to the best instant removal for artifacts in current standard.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Also, Gremlin is about the best we have for actual artifact removal. I think it's a good option vs Aetherworks Reservoir, but I don't like it against Marvel. Generally the play pattern for the marvel user is going to be play and activate immediately. We won't get an opportunity to stop it from happening once it hits the board. Hence, Transgress being the best option we have. You could also consider Lost Legacy to remove Ulamog and increase their whiff rate, but that doesn't sound good.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
4 Bomat Courier
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
2 Forerunner of Slaughter
4 Inventor's Apprentice
3 Pia Nalaar
Lands (23)
10 Mountain
1 Swamp
4 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
4 Smoldering Marsh
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
4 Smuggler's Copter
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Incendiary Flow
2 Call the Bloodline
4 Galvanic Bombardment
1 Harnessed Lightning
2 Lightning Axe
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
4 Transgress the Mind
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I actually went over to my LGS and bought them out of their 3 copies when you mentioned it. The card is really good thanks to being able to give anything haste for one more mana and it's undervalued since aggro was not a big part of the BFZ meta. The real winner in the deck, though, is Scrapheap Scrounger. Against any kind of control deck it's a tough nut to crack, as there aren't a lot of ways right now to interact with it once it hits the graveyard. I've been working on a impact tremors / reckless fireweaver deck for Frontier since my LGS is running it that is going to use it too.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
24 points (8-2)
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
3 Pia Nalaàr
2 Bloodhall Priest
Sorcery (4)
4 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
Land (23)
10 Mountain
4 Swamp
3 Foreboding Ruins
2 Smoldering Marsh
4 Aether Hub
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Lightning Axe
4 Galvanic Bombardment
3 Transgress the Mind
3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Call the Bloodline
21 Points (7-3)
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Pia Nalaàr
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
Instant (12)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Galvanic Bombardment
3 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
4 Smuggler's Copter
Land (23)
4 Foreboding Ruins
4 Aether Hub
11 Mountain
4 Swamp
1 Swamp
4 Transgress the Mind
2 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
4 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Weaver of Lightning
2 Oath of Liliana
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Pia Nalaàr
Sorcery (3)
3 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Smuggler's Copter
3 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
Land (24)
4 Foreboding Ruins
2 Smoldering Marsh
4 Aether Hub
10 Mountain
4 Swamp
4 Transgress the Mind
4 Galvanic Bombardment
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
3 Lathnu Hellion
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Pia Nalaàr
Sorcery (4)
4 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
2 Key to the City
4 Smuggler's Copter
3 Fleetwheel Cruiser
Land (23)
4 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
4 Swamp
11 Mountain
3 Transgress the Mind
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Lightning Axe
4 Galvanic Bombardment
4 Weaver of Lightning
18 points (6-4)
4 Bomat Courier
4 Pia Nalaàr
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Inventor's Apprentice
Sorcery (4)
4 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Fiery Temper
4 Smuggler's Copter
3 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
Land (23)
4 Foreboding Ruins
3 Swamp
11 Mountain
4 Smoldering Marsh
1 Aether Hub
3 Weaver of Lightning
2 Galvanic Bombardment
3 Lightning Axe
3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
4 Transgress the Mind
4 Bomat Courier
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Pia Nalaàr
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
2 Reckless Bushwhacker
Sorcery (4)
4 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
1 Key to the City
4 Smuggler's Copter
Land (23)
4 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
11 Mountain
4 Swamp
1 Reckless Bushwhacker
2 Weaver of Lightning
4 Galvanic Bombardment
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Lightning Axe
4 Transgress the Mind
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Bomat Courier
4 Chief of the Foundry
2 Pia Nalaàr
1 Bloodhall Priest
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
Sorcery (2)
2 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Fiery Temper
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Key to the City
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
Land (23)
3 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
1 Smoldering Marsh
10 Mountain
5 Swamp
1 Key to the City
3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Lightning Axe
2 Collective Brutality
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
3 Transgress the Mind
3 Galvanic Bombardment
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Pia Nalaàr
4 Bomat Courier
1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
Sorcery (4)
4 Incendiary Flow
Instant (8)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
2 Fleetwheel Cruiser
2 Key to the City
4 Smuggler's Copter
Land (23)
10 Mountain
4 Swamp
3 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
2 Smoldering Marsh
1 Smoldering Marsh
2 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
3 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
3 Galvanic Bombardment
1 Lightning Axe
2 Transgress the Mind
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
4 Bomat Courier
4 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Pia Nalaar
Vehicles (7)
4 Smuggler's Copter
3 Fleetwheel Cruiser
Other (2)
2 Key to the City
4 Fiery Temper
4 Incendiary Flow
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
Lands (23)
10 Mountains
4 Swamp
4 Aether Hub
4 Foreboding Ruins
1 Smouldering Marsh
4 Transgress the Mind
4 Galvanic Bombardment
3 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Lightning Axe
Main change is going up to 3 Cruisers over the Bushwhackers. It appears almost all the lists cut Bushwhacker entirely from their 75x. The rest is stock standard. There were a couple of lists running Bloodhall Priest, including the one of the best record. It ended up being pretty close on the cut between the first Priest and the 3rd Cruiser. I think in an aggro meta, a Priest or two main is probably correct given how well it performed in my own play with the deck.
The sideboards have changed dramatically. Many decks played a full set of Transgress. A lot of them also cut Weaver of Lightning entirely. Kalitas and Galvanic Bombardment was a much more common goto for those slots. Weaver still was played by enough decks to get a slot depending on how you round up the averages on the other cards. I don't know how I feel about adding Kalitas with our manabase, but I can see cutting Weaver. It underperformed in most of the games I played it. I think with the Meta likely to spike on the URx control decks, we'll be right to start cutting them for more tools against the control decks. Chandra still got a good amount of play. One deck even played a full set in the sideboard. Perhaps a good option in the control matchup.
I've weighted the 24pt decklists 3x, the 21pt decklists 2x, and the 18pt decklists 1x. I use Karsten's method for the mainboard spells. For manabase, I merely look at simple averages across the decklists. Sideboard, I total the number of copies between all decklists, and then weight that by the frequency of appearances (i.e. number of lists that ran the card), and sort by weighting. Then I take an average number of copies (averaging amongst only the decklists that ran that card) and use those numbers to fill out a sideboard.
Slot/Freq/Card
1 100% Bomat Courier 1
2 100% Bomat Courier 2
3 100% Bomat Courier 3
4 100% Bomat Courier 4
5 100% Scrapheap Scrounger 1
6 100% Scrapheap Scrounger 2
7 100% Scrapheap Scrounger 3
8 100% Scrapheap Scrounger 4
9 100% Inventor's Apprentice 1
10 100% Inventor's Apprentice 2
11 100% Inventor's Apprentice 3
12 100% Inventor's Apprentice 4
13 100% Pia Nalaar 1
14 100% Pia Nalaar 2
15 100% Fleetwheel Cruiser 1
16 100% Fleetwheel Cruiser 2
17 100% Key to the City 1
18 100% Smuggler's Copter 1
19 100% Smuggler's Copter 2
20 100% Smuggler's Copter 3
21 100% Smuggler's Copter 4
22 100% Fiery Temper 1
23 100% Fiery Temper 2
24 100% Fiery Temper 3
25 100% Fiery Temper 4
26 100% Unlicensed Disintegration 1
27 100% Unlicensed Disintegration 2
28 100% Unlicensed Disintegration 3
29 100% Unlicensed Disintegration 4
30 100% Incendiary Flow 1
31 100% Incendiary Flow 2
32 92% Pia Nalaar 3
33 92% Key to the City 2
34 92% Incendiary Flow 3
35 77% Incendiary Flow 4
36 69% Pia Nalaar 4
37 54% Fleetwheel Cruiser 3
--------------------------------------
38 31% Bloodhall Priest 1
39 23% Bloodhall Priest 2
40 8% Reckless Bushwhacker 1
41 8% Reckless Bushwhacker 2
42 8% Reckless Bushwhacker 1
43 8% Reckless Bushwhacker 2
44 8% Chief of the Foundry 1
45 8% Chief of the Foundry 2
46 8% Chief of the Foundry 3
47 8% Chief of the Foundry 4
48 8% Goblin Dark-Dwellers 1
49 0% Bloodhall Priest 3
50 0% Bloodhall Priest 4
51 0% Reckless Bushwhacker 3
52 0% Reckless Bushwhacker 4
53 0% Reckless Bushwhacker 3
54 0% Reckless Bushwhacker 4
55 0% Goblin Dark-Dwellers 2
56 0% Goblin Dark-Dwellers 3
57 0% Goblin Dark-Dwellers 4
58 0% Fleetwheel Cruiser 4
59 0% Key to the City 3
60 0% Key to the City 4
Avg/Land
10.5 Mountain
4.0 Swamp
3.6 Aether Hub
3.8 Foreboding Ruins
1.3 Smoldering Marsh
Sum/Freq/Wght/Avg/Card
44 13 572 3.4 Transgress the Mind
40 11 440 3.6 Galvanic Bombardment
28 11 308 2.5 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
20 9 180 2.2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
17 9 153 1.9 Lightning Axe
17 6 102 2.8 Weaver of Lightning
6 3 18 2.0 Call of the Bloodline
6 2 12 3.0 Lathnu Hellion
3 3 9 1.0 Land
4 2 8 2.0 Skysovereign
4 2 8 2.0 Oath of Liliana
2 1 2 2.0 Collective Brutality
2 1 2 2.0 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
1 1 1 1.0 Reckless Bushwhacker
1 1 1 1.0 Key to the City
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Prepping for GP Providence, going with a variation on this brew. Looking for feedback on the below build and my take on cards available to us.
4 Bomat Courier
3 Insolent Neonate
3 Scrapheap Scrounger
4 Heir to Falkenrath
2 Olivia, Mobilized for War
3 Bloodhall Priest
Spells (18)
4 Fiery Temper
4 Incendiary Flow
4 Unlicensed Disintegration
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Key to the City
4 Foreboding Ruins
10 Mountain
9 Swamp
3 Biting Rain
3 Elusive Tormentor
2 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
3 Lost Legacy
2 Sinister Concoction
2 Incendiary Sabotage
CHOICES
ONE DROPS
Neonate & Courier over Gorger and Apprentice
Even while running Olivia main and Tormentor in SB, I opt out of including Gorger due to it's lack of versatility. I don't feel it's ability offers enough since no vampires (save the niche Tormentor) cost over 3. (I consider Priest a 3 drop) However the ability to EOT vamps into play for pseudo-haste can not be understated, but you would need to be holding back cards.
Apprentice is undoubtedly strong, and obviously crews once facing an enemy x/3. But, like Goger it's a god awful topdeck and I would much rather pseudo-cycle a Neonate if need be.
Speaking of Neonate, I feel it's possible for it to do on par damage as an Apprentice due to menace. Also prefer it for the aforementioned card draw. Courier can generate ludicrous card advantage and Priest shock shenanigans. It is however outmatched easily and quickly vs. some decks, but then it becomes discard fodder or gets punted post-sideboard.
TWO & THREE DROPS
Heir to Falkenrath & Olivia over Pia and Bushwhacker
Scrounger & Priest, No Fleetwheel Cruiser
I'm just not hype for Pia. There, I said it. 3 power for 3, sure, but she lacks..... zazz. Olivia on t3 can generate something degenerate like a t4 5/5 hasted double shock Priest. Also she flies and this build is more evasive than the other builds we have seen thus far. And that's where Heir also comes in. I just think this card is very strong. Strong enough to bail on Pia. Your opponent doesn't want to deal with two 3 power fliers. On that note I've considered running 3 Olivias and cutting a Courier.
Bushwhacker doesn't even belong in this deck as far as I'm concerned. But now I have a hankering to brew GarrisonWhack.
Scrounger gets the nod because it just doesn't die.
Priest is a three drop! I'm sad if I have to tap 4 lands for this. I have also omitted Fleetwheel from the build, as I feel it's too fragile and costs 4. This build tops off at 3. Don't forget... Priest is a three drop!
Removal/Burn spells and Keys, no change.
SIDEBOARD
I felt these cards stand up against the early meta the best in theory and vs. the following decks. Of all the areas I'm looking for feedback in, the sideboard takes priority as I have never felt I had a good handle on how to construct them.
+3 Biting Rain
+2 Kalitas
-4 Courier
-1 Key
Sub Sabotage for Rain vs. Sultai.
It seems to me, Biting Rain absolutely wrecks RW token. Pending variations in builds, it should kill everything on their board save Copter
vs. Grixis Control, UR Spells, Jeskai Control
+3 Elusive Tormentor
-2 Keys
-1 Courier
These decks have little in the way of creatures (Jeskai is stronger in this regard) and seem like they would have a difficult time dealing with Tormentor as long as you kept some ammo in the clip to flip him when needed.
vs. Aetherworks & Delirium
+3 Lost Legacy
+2 Sinister Concoction
-3 Disintegration
-2 Keys (Aetherworks)
-2 Courier (Delirium)
I'll gladly let you draw 3-4 cards to wipe out your win con. Concoction is an Emrakul panic button.
vs. RW Vehicle, Mardu Vehicle, UW Flash
+3 Rain
+2 Sabotage
+2 Kalitas
-4 Courier
-1 Each Removal Spell
Same reasoning as vs. RW Token. Sabotage will destroy RW and Mardu pre or mid combat, killing everything except Looter Scooter crewed by Veteran. UW suffers more from Rain, making Selfless Spirit much weaker, but the Sabo is still needed for their x/3s
vs. every other possible deck in the format
¯\(°_o)/¯. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Notable Exclusions
Lightning Axe - Anything this can kill Disintegration can kill better.
Transgress - Not an aggro card.
Galvanic Bombardment - Better in the spells deck.
Weaver - Too slow, defensive.
Harness Lightning - Doesn't hit the face.
Thanks for reading.
How you should approach every game of Magic.
Mod Helpdesk (defunct)
My Flawless Score MCC Card | My Other One | # Three!
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Ack! More like, a typo. Edited.
How you should approach every game of Magic.
Mod Helpdesk (defunct)
My Flawless Score MCC Card | My Other One | # Three!
I don't like the sideboard much though. At the very least, I think you'll want to make room for 2-4 Transgress the Mind. Also, the sweepers seem more harmful than they are beneficial.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
I'm going to be trying a list close to the aggregate list this week, but staying mono. I've not been able to get the lands I need to go RB. The list will be almost the same creature package (swapping two Pias for two Sin Prodder to try for more card drawing), and will run Collective Defiance instead of Disintegration. I've also been running into a few ground based decks at my store, so I'm going to try Goldnight Castigator as my 4-drop. Should be unexpected, so might give me an edge. We'll see!
I don't know if that's the right way to approach the problem in the case of the BR deck. We have recursive threats (Scrounger) and threats that produce extra bodies (Pia Nalaar). We also have Vehicles that drive themselves when they are first cast (Cruiser). Lastly, we can reasonably expect our opponents to prioritize killing our Vehicle over our pilot, so having an excess of pilots isn't necessarily needed. Add into the fact that we will potentially get filtering from Copters, and draw extra cards from Couriers, it isn't really all that straight forward.
If we instead look at the probabilities of drawing at least as many creatures as we do vehicles, then the math works out differently. I did this for top 11 cards (e.g. T5 on the Play)
Creatures/Vehicles = Probability
16/7 = 88.3%
17/7 = 89.8%
18/7 = 91.1%
16/6 = 90.9%
17/6 = 92.2%
18/6 = 93.3%
As you can see, if you are only running 6 vehicles, which many of the lists do, 16 creatures seems perfectly fine. If instead you are running 7 vehicles, maybe 17 creatures is better. I think there is enough grey area around all the other variables, that 16/7 as per the stock list, is perfectly reasonable. Indeed, most of the top performing decks ran exactly that.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Could it be that the fact that the Alms variant very much needs to have smouldering marsh slows it down, while the more normal variant can rely on hub?
Or is Alms just not as good as I thought, even with key/copter. To be fair, Alms builds usually can't fit in incendiary flow.