After this long weekend... Any results with the deck? I posted my FNM, but I didn't go to any PPTQ. Anyone here wants to post how the deck did in your local metagame?
After this long weekend... Any results with the deck? I posted my FNM, but I didn't go to any PPTQ. Anyone here wants to post how the deck did in your local metagame?
i used the deck this past FNM, having subbed in westvale. i went 2-1, my only loss being against U/W Flash spirits. ive come to realize that control is my worst matchup. westvale didnt hinder nor improve my deck as i didnt see much of it.
After this long weekend... Any results with the deck? I posted my FNM, but I didn't go to any PPTQ. Anyone here wants to post how the deck did in your local metagame?
i used the deck this past FNM, having subbed in westvale. i went 2-1, my only loss being against U/W Flash spirits. ive come to realize that control is my worst matchup. westvale didnt hinder nor improve my deck as i didnt see much of it.
Should we conclude that we have reduced the number of instants and flyers too much, focused as we were on beating Delirium?
The 3rd copies of Flame Lash and Selfless Spirit were also quite good against Control... As was Pia Nalaar (two removals were required to deal with her).
@JoeSchmoe is right : If we're dedicated at making this deck Tier 1, budget considerations are to be ignored, and I'm willing to buy my 4th Copter and 4th Gideon. However, *maybe* the deck would be better with the above mentioned cards of v1.1, somewhere in the 75. And *maybe* the deck is better having all these different cards to dig for in the main deck, to face the different decks, rather than rely too heavily on a single strategy.
About Incendiary Flow : @JoeSchmoe has very strong arguments. But I haven't had particular problems against Boros or Mardu Vehicles decks... yet. Maybe these decks are not so popular in my local metagame, or I was lucky the few times I played against them, or I play the deck right for the matchup (something I can't say against Control). I don't know. For the moment, having the option to Burn the player or Planeswalkers is more appealing *to me* than getting instant speed *in my local metagame*. I may well change opinion next week, but for the moment my challenge is to beat Control and UW Flash (Delirium has been figured out, I beleive). Let's just agree that we disagree on these 4 cards, and let's continue to work together to make the deck great!
Posting your results here, and telling the communinity what was good, and what went wrong, can only help us. So continue posting with your stories, opinions, etc.
I have some results from yesterday's standard weekly. I went 2-1.
vs Jeskai Dybnavolt control
- Game 1: We both got a bit flooded, but I ended up drawing more threats than he did removals. Neither tower, nor glimmer showed for him, so really bad draw.
- Game 2: It was a close one. He sided in weavers, but I kept burning them with defiance. I went full blown with defiance knowing he set up with glimmer twice. Discarding all his mass removal made me happy. But then I don't draw creatures and he has 2 gearhulks on board. Abbey buys me some time, but i don't draw the last burn spell i need / decstone to survive longer.
- Game 3: This time I have a quick hand that takes over. He is forced to cast radiant flames with 2 colors, which leaves me with 2/3 inspector. I bring him to 3 live and I have defiance and flow. He only has one counterspell
2 - 1
vs Delirium
- Game 1: I go: inspector, clue, garrison, thalia, garrison, garrison. Opponent has removal but not enough to take care of multiple garrisons & thalia
- Game 2: I burn his trackers & khalitas, but he stabilizes with Ishkanah. I still have enough to block but then first gearhulk saves him from being burned, and then I got emrakuled and don't have response
- Game 3: I kept 4 lands, inspector and 2 removals. in restrospect I should've mulled. I had him on 9 life, then 2 flame lashes happend and he's on 1. Then I never got the last burn I needed.
1 - 2
vs Zombie-delirium
- Game 1: I have 3 inspectors and lieutenant in my opening hand. My first draw is... 4th inspector. So with abundance of clues and 4 2/3 i can defend against his restless dead. Amalgams did not come early luckily. He stabilizes with Ishkanah, I respond with Avacyn to get rid of his spirits. I cast the garrison. He emerges decimator of ishkanah and attacks with everything. I block with all my creatures, sacrifice all but garrison to flip the abbey. Avacy also flips, cause garrison died. My turn is Gideon, emblem, attack with avacyn, spires and ormendal. GG
- Game 2: I have to kill liliana and give him delirium. He picks the brain avacyn, and following turn lost legacies gideon. Ouch. I try to fight back with burn, but I have to burn his creatures to survive...
- Game 3: Inspector into lieutenant into thalia, and flowing his flyers. he grapples, gets 3rd flayer, picks the brain (no delirium) and sees 2 thalias and flame lash. Decides to discard thalia. In the end flame lash was the finisher I needed and he did not have removal to deal with two thalias. He agreed he should've taken out removal.
2 - 1
It was abbeys time to shine this time.
I am thinking - should we maybe include 1-2 stasis snare to deal with Emrakul / Bruna / any annoying creature? I thought of replacing Castigator with it as it did not really shine so far for me.. What do you think pat?
Btw. I still plan to play the deck this week on a GP, expect some results soon
I have some results from yesterday's standard weekly. I went 2-1.
It was abbeys time to shine this time.
I am thinking - should we maybe include 1-2 stasis snare to deal with Emrakul / Bruna / any annoying creature? I thought of replacing Castigator with it as it did not really shine so far for me.. What do you think pat?
Btw. I still plan to play the deck this week on a GP, expect some results soon
The only game you lost was against Delirium, and you got him down to 1 life. Cruel.
JoeSchmoe's list includes 2 Stasis Snare to deal with Emrakul, Bruna, Demon and other fatties. And 4 Copters to dig it out of the library. It may be more reasonable to play it than not, even if it's a removal that can't burn. Instant speed also fixes the problem of Vehicles. Probably instead of Incendiary Flow, but I won't be happy with the change until the card gets me some victories. I am that thorned about it, mostly because it is out of theme. But hey, we're asking for advice and Joe is generous with them ; least we can do is respect that and test out his suggestions instead of theorycrafting the card out of the list.
Yeah, I more thinking about SB, because it's not always necessary to have it. I guess I'll do some testing today and during the trials on Friday and let you know.
Also another thing - I don't know how about you guys but I most often end up boarding out copters for game two. I don't know if that's correct but my reasoning is: either they cannot get through and die (Ishkanah in delirium & fliers in flash), which makes them meh game 1, or once they see them they'll probably bring some responses game 2 which makes copters worse. With that in mind - maybe we should consider cutting one copter? Or are they too good a card and we want just consistently draw them?
On a completely unrelated topic: decklists have this fancy spot for deck inventor, what do I write there @patbou?
Yeah, I more thinking about SB, because it's not always necessary to have it. I guess I'll do some testing today and during the trials on Friday and let you know.
Also another thing - I don't know how about you guys but I most often end up boarding out copters for game two. I don't know if that's correct but my reasoning is: either they cannot get through and die (Ishkanah in delirium & fliers in flash), which makes them meh game 1, or once they see them they'll probably bring some responses game 2 which makes copters worse. With that in mind - maybe we should consider cutting one copter? Or are they too good a card and we want just consistently draw them?
On a completely unrelated topic: decklists have this fancy spot for deck inventor, what do I write there @patbou?
I often cut a Copter post SB, particularly if I find myself boarding out 3+ creatures.
All the easy decisions for the deck have been made, and we know the core. There's at most 2 or 3 cards in the SB that can be replaced by others, and maybe 6 in the main deck (Flow and Lash). We're fine tuning to get the best recipe, and unfortunately there's not hundreds of players out there piloting this deck to help us with it...
I don't have time for FNM this week, but will go to Showdown on Saturday. I don't know if the metagame will be Flash and Delirium, or if people will bring in fun decks. I really love deck building, but deck fine-tuning is way more complicated than I thought it would be!
I have received very encouraging results from JoeSchmoe, after he tested out his own version of the deck against Tier 1 decks on XMage (52-18). I hope Joe can post his results here soon for the sake of the conversation...
For the time being, I think it's important that we all agree on what is the deck's core cards :
So, we're left with 10 slots for the main deck, and 4 for the SB, to fine-tune the deck and get it to Tier 1 in each of our own metagame. I guess the list would be pretty much the same for all of us in a GP, but local metagame differs greatly and I wouldn't run the same list for a PPTQ or GP, than for a local event like FNM (where SB will be more oriented to the decks my friends play there).
Now, what are the cards we should put in to really have the best list ?
Pia Nalaar : Should we replace one of the three Thalia, Heretic Cathar for her? Albeit unimpressive at first, her Thopter was useful to slow down UW Flash aggressivity, and it takes two cards for Control to deal with her.
Hanweir Militia Captain : I have my doubts, and we would need @JoeSchmoe's advice on this card (as he supposedly played 70 games with it on XMage). Seems to have an interesting synergy with the deck, but maybe not fully exploited given the not so high number of creatures).
Archangel Avacyn : Instant speed gives her pseudo protection against counterspells, and she's great at saving our Humans as well. We may be vulnerable to her own transformation if not paired with Selfless Spirit or another copy of Avacyn. She flies above blockers, and provides a decent body on defense (always there thanks to Vigilance).
Gisela, the Broken Blade : Maybe as a one of. Good against Copters and UW Flash, but easily removed. BTW, isn't that the case for almost all our creatures? Greatest drawback is where she sits on the curve...
Smuggler's Copter : Some prefers to run the full playset, instead of only 3. Is that better? First copy is amazing, and second copy is wanted if the first gets removed. But draw too many, and it's just a dead card that you have to loot away.
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar : As much as I love this card, the Planeswalkers rule turns duplicates into dead cards. It's emblem is amazing against GB Delirium, and attacking with 5/5 indestructible is either 5 damage to the opponent, or a creature removed (unless blocker is Torrential Gearhulk, in that case you need Thalia's Lieutenant to make Gideon a 6/6). Is 4 really is the right number? Or should we play only 2-3 in the main deck and side in extra copies if appropriate? I personally don't like him much against UW Flash, as we lack flyers to protect him.
Always Watching : Anthems are supposedly good against Delirium, and this is a fine way of getting one (with Vigilance as a bonus, but it ignores our tokens) while ignoring the Planeswalkers rule of Gideon. Main? Side? Not at all?
REMOVALS
Incendiary Flow : It can burn opponent, and exile creatures, but at Sorcery speed. It seems we all agree we should 2-4 in the main deck, and the rest in the sideboard.
Harnessed Lightning : It can't Burn opponent, bu Instant speed makes this a better creature removal card than Incendiary Flow. JoeSchmoe seems to have had good results with it, but we need more informations if it was really that good or not. With only 1-2 Aether Hub, and 2 Harnessed Lightning in the deck, is there enough energy to make this work?
Stasis Snare : Answer to all problems (except Bristling Hydra, but that's why we have Blessed Alliance in the SB). Good vs Emrakul and other fat creatures, and at instant speed. I think I have come to the conclusion we're better playing 1-2 in the main deck, than not at all or just in the SB.
Flame Lash : I really love this instant speed removal that can deal with almost all creatures and Planeswalkers, and Burn opponent if it can win you the game. But JoeSchmoe doesn't play the card in his 75. Who's right?
I may change my mind before tomorrow's Showdown, but here are the cards I think will fill these slots (10 main and 4 SB) :
2 Stasis Snare
2 Flame Lash
2 Selfless Spirit
2 Archangel Avacyn
1 Pia Nalaar
1 Smuggler's Copter (yes, I'll buy a 4th!)
Also, I will swap 1 Chandra for 1 Gideon in the main, and try Westvale Abbey instead of 1 Aether Hub (or Stone Quarry).
Sideboard :
1 Pia Nalaar
1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Selfless Spirit
1 Flame Lash
I'm reluctant to call this v1.9, yet. What do you think? Should we really ditch Spirits and Angels for more Gideons and some Militia Captain? Or keep that as it is?
Edit : For sake of clarity, here's the formatted deck list...
For what it's worth, here's a Boros Midrange deck that did well last week. Also, I'm quoting my questions from above. I fear me and Joe have posted simultaneously, and my questions got lost in the middle of his two long (but so rich) posts.
Thanks Joe, BTW. Your help is very much appreciated!
I think our community is really lucky to have very dedicated players. It's obvious that we really want to make the deck perform to Tier 1, and it feels it really has that potential.
Joe's style tells me he's quite experienced, and/or has a deep understanding of the game. We would be dumb to not listen to him. Some ideas may not be our own personal style, but other inputs are plain brilliant, and have inspired me to v2.0 of the deck. I call it 2.0 because it's the first step (albeit shy) away from the Burn theme, by replacing 2 Incendiary Flow with 2 Stasis Snare.
Creatures : I've decided to keep the 4 flyers in the deck (2 Spirits and 2 Avacyns), because 1) Control is very present in my local metagame, 2) Flying, Flash and Indestructible are great against Control and 3) Control only gets better as Standard matures, and I feel it will soon become a thing. I prefer these 4 flyers than 3 Hanweir Militia Captain and a 4th Planeswalker. Captain feels like a vanilla 2/2 more often than not, and only good at surviving Liliana's +1. I also kept the 3rd Thalia, Heretic Cathartic in the main deck, because she is super good against the Tier 1 decks right now (and Pia Nalaar is not main deck material for us).
Removals : I really love to Burn opponent, so I kept the very versatile Flame Lash in the 75 (2 in the main deck ; instead of Declaration in Stone). I still prefer Incendiary Flow over Harnessed Lightning (for the moment), but I have to respect the choice of Stasis Snare (2 of, replacing some Flows), because it can deal with everything at instant speed.
Support : It makes sense to play the full playset of Copters, to dig for the cards we need to win the current matchup, so I added a 4th copy in the main deck (instead of Always Watching). And I decided to keep only 2 Gideons in the main deck. Not only because I realized how often Joe was systematically siding it out, but because he finally found the words I needed to understand Chandra. She's good at defense, while Gideon is all offense. With that, and no guarantee to win the toss and be on the play first, I beleive it is better for me to play her main deck, as a safety if I'm on the draw game 1 (and swap her with Gideon #3 if I'm on the play game 2 or 3).
Lands : I've checked my maths, and the deck really needs 16 white and 16 red mana sources to cast WW or RR on turn 3 (76%). Westvale Abbey can only be played in the main deck instead of Hanweir Battlements (no way) or as land #25 (no way too). So I'll keep it out of the deck for a while longer. Going back to Stone Quarry. It ETB tapped, but it's a great fixer.
Sideboard : Instead of Joe's 2 Harnessed Lightning and 2 Skywhaler's Shot (or my 2 Castigators, 1 Lash and Fragmentize #3), I'm playing with 1 Nahiri, 2 Pia and 1 Spirit in the SB. I've added Nahiri to better control and exile in the GB Delirium matchup. As for the other removals, I beleive the main and side decks have what it needs to Control the most aggressive opponents, but we otherwise lack what's needed to deal with Control. Pia Nalaar is taxing, as she requires 2 cards to be dealt with. She's also a great mana sink (pseudo card advantage). And Spirit #3 helps against sweepers. Finally, everything Joe said about Weaver of Lightning is genius. I'm putting it there instead of Blessed Alliance, and really hope I'll not face Gruul Energy tomorrow!
Ok. Enough theory. I'll catch some sleep before tomorrow's Showdown.
I believe this is my first time posting here, but I've been following this thread for at least a couple of weeks now and I have been a huge fan of humans ever since the first Innistrad block was released. When Kaladesh first came out I fell in love with vehicles, and so I started the standard metagame this season with W/R Dwarfs, then progressed to Mardu Vehicles. As G/B Delirium became the dominating deck at my LGS Mardu wasn't cutting it anymore. Hanweir Garrison is probably my favorite card in standard right now, as it reminds me of Goblin Rabblemaster. I currently have Craig Wescoe's Mono-W Humans list sleeved up, as I'm waiting on my last two Gideons in the mail. However, I have done extensive play testing with both a Mardu Humans list online as well as just R/W.
Question:
I know this list is for BOROS Human Burn, but has anybody else tried splashing black for Mardu? I've always loved Collective Defiance, but ever since someone pointed out to me that Unlicensed Disintegration is strictly better I've had a hard time not running that instead. And of course the other reason to splash black is Scrapheap Scrounger. It's not as crucial in a Humans list, especially mine where I have only 3 Apprentices, but it definitely helps in the long game. Does the splash significantly hurt the mana base? You get Shambling Vent as well, and Collective Defiance is no longer an issue.
Still, while I'm uncertain if the splash is too much of a hindrance on the mana, straight R/W does feel a bit more comfortably consistent. This is the decklist I've been playtesting online at the moment.
I believe this is my first time posting here, but I've been following this thread for at least a couple of weeks now and I have been a huge fan of humans ever since the first Innistrad block was released. When Kaladesh first came out I fell in love with vehicles, and so I started the standard metagame this season with W/R Dwarfs, then progressed to Mardu Vehicles. As G/B Delirium became the dominating deck at my LGS Mardu wasn't cutting it anymore. Hanweir Garrison is probably my favorite card in standard right now, as it reminds me of Goblin Rabblemaster. I currently have Craig Wescoe's Mono-W Humans list sleeved up, as I'm waiting on my last two Gideons in the mail. However, I have done extensive play testing with both a Mardu Humans list online as well as just R/W.
Question:
I know this list is for BOROS Human Burn, but has anybody else tried splashing black for Mardu? I've always loved Collective Defiance, but ever since someone pointed out to me that Unlicensed Disintegration is strictly better I've had a hard time not running that instead. And of course the other reason to splash black is Scrapheap Scrounger. It's not as crucial in a Humans list, especially mine where I have only 3 Apprentices, but it definitely helps in the long game. Does the splash significantly hurt the mana base? You get Shambling Vent as well, and Collective Defiance is no longer an issue.
Still, while I'm uncertain if the splash is too much of a hindrance on the mana, straight R/W does feel a bit more comfortably consistent. This is the decklist I've been playtesting online at the moment.
For Mardu I basically take out the spirits and incendiary flow for scrapheaps and unlicensed disintegration.
I'm not so sure about Inventor's Apprentice in your deck list. With only 4 Copters and some Clues to help it, it will likely be a 1/2 most of the time. You probably need Pia Nalaar to add a Human and an Artifact.
I've thought about going Mardu for the same reasons you mentioned, or Naya for Voltaic Brawler, Tireless Tracker and Heron's Grace Champion. But is splashing a third color more cute than helpful?
About Collective Defiance vs Unlicensed Disintegration, it's not true it is strictly better. True, it's an instant, and it says destroy. But burning the dome is conditionnal. You can't just Burn for 3 if that's what you want/need (finisher), and/or you don't want, for some reason, to destroy a creature (to avoid transforming Avacyn, for example).
But I got a taste of Rakdos Aggro today, and opponent was playing the full play sets of each of Unlicensed Disintegration, Collective Defiance and Fiery Temper. He could go full aggressive, and then control while burning, burning, burning.
Here are my results : 3rd place, out of around 20 players. I made the cut to Top 4 after 5 rounds (3-1-1), but I immediately conceded to my opponent (again that Rakdos Aggro deck) because I had to go. I went there expecting 4 rounds of Swiss, not 5 + Top 4. I cashed in my prize anyway, and I'll never know if I could have find the way to beat that matchup.
Izzet Prowess : 2-0
Rakdos Aggro : 0-2
Simic Midrange : 2-0
Jeskai Control : 2-1
Golgari Delirium : 1-1
I'll post the details maybe tomorrow, but that last game was really played (no intentional draw). I won the first game on the draw, lost game 2 to mana flood (10 lands on 19 cards), and we went on time game 3 (playing 3 consecutive Thalia on turns 3, 4 and 5, while he had God hand). Draw!
Just a thought about the more aggressive matchups (Mardu Vehicles, Rakdos Aggro)... what about Lantern Scout, as a way to keep an aggressive stance while gaining enough life to nullify or mitigate their attack next turn? I realize that we're trying really hard to control these matchups, but in doing so we delay a lot our own aggressivity and that's often at the cost of victory. Combined with Gideon's Ally tokens to repeat the Rally trigger, could this work out for us?
Madrid GP has ended. I got home and finally have some time to share my thoughts about the deck. And to report my results.
First of all thanks to everyone involved in this thread - your tips were very helpful and often pointed me out in the right direction.
Second of all I really recommend everyone to go to a GP at least once. It's been a great experience and I believe it already made me a better player. Also a benefit is memorizing your DCI after filling all registrations sheets
I expected to see a lot of marvel and RB Aggro/madness decks + the traditional trio of delirium, flash and vehicles. Based on this I decided I need main deck answers for things like Emrakul / Ulamong and Voldaren Pariah / Prized Amalgams / Restless Dead. My first idea was to cut Selfless Spirits & one Copter. That gave me slots to fit 2 Stasis Snare & 2nd Always Watching, but after testing I realized it is wrong. There were two problems - too many removal spells & too few creatures to justify two anthems. I did some more testing and the list I settled upon was not too far from version 2.0. Without further ado here's the deck list:
I haven't thought about Pia again when testing and maybe that was a mistake. My reasoning was that we don't have enough artifact creatures to make her ability relevant...
I did very poorly in the main event 1-4 (well, 2-4, but as one of the wins was a no show I'm not counting it here) and dropped to play in the side events.
Here are the detailed descriptions:
Round 1 vs UW flash 0-2
Game 1: I am on the play. Opening hand with 2 inspectors but only 1 plains. I would've kept if I had a second land. Mulligan down to 6... Hand looked okay but in the end I got super flooded with 7 lands in 11 cards, and only had one inspector and lieutenant. Not much I could've done.
Game 2: Again I had to mull to 6. I was first time I had this awkward hands with lands but not enough colored sources to play. Well those things. Happen. 6 were inspector, 2 lieutenants, flow and 2 lands. I was okay. I missed my 3rd land drop, but it wasn't a big issue. Later in the game I kept drawing lands / removal, but no creatures. I did an overinvestment to kill resolved Gideon when he was tapped out which left me with no response to Avacyn in the following turns... killing Gideon on the spot was probably a mistake, but if I'm aggro and I'm not drawing creatures then it's bad.
Conclusion after this match: I probably did not shuffle well enough after lying the deck out to write the decklist...
Round 2: Mardu vehicles: 0 - 2
Game 1: I get 4 lands, 2 inspectors and flow. Not perfect but clues can help digging for cards so I kept. I also kept drawing lands (7 lands I burn). I was quite disappointed after that game. I was 3rd time in the row deck decided to not help me. We'll take a deep breath and play game 2.
Game 2: I kept a greedy hand with 2 lands and inspector. And got punished for it by being mana hosed for a change... hashtag sad.
First 4 games were very unlucky. And get me into a bit bad mindset. I really wanted to have a normal game of magic, but variance decided otherwise... well that's life. Good side was that this match finished early so I had a bit time to chill out and change my mindset.
Round 3: RB Madness 0-2
Game 1: it was a classic race. Unfortunately they are faster then we do. I had Thalia to slow him down a bit, but she got burned and then I did not draw response to Pariah.
Game 2: I kept hand with Needle Spires being my only white source. And then I kept drawing spells costing double white. Once I got my 2nd whit source it was to late for Gideon, he had Pariah to respond to my Avacyn... I also made a mistake of not blocking with Spires when I could've.... was probably too nervous to think straight...
At least I had one fair game this time... that helped a bit. 2nd game was my mistake and wrong keep decision...
Round 4. No show
I had to time to chill and get the duals signed. It was good to have that break - it helped a lot to deal with overall disappointment of deck's (and mine) underwhelming performance.
Round 5: UWG Delirium Superfriends: 2-0
Game 1: He won the toss. Turn 2 Grim Flayer. I respond with inspector (turn 1 was Spires). He attacks, no blocks. Turn 3 Liliana... ouch this is looking very bad. 2nd attack with flayer and still no delirium. I drew drew 2nd stasis snare so I snare flayer before the damage but liliana keeps ticking. He played shambling vent turn 4 so I got a bit confused. Turn 5 was Gisela and I immediately used my 2nd snare. Lifeline is not something we want on the board. Then he casts scoring and is step for multi sting Lilly. I respond with Garrison, give it haste and it and tokes deal with Lilly. He casts grasp of darkness and I do with second garrison which help against Sorin. He got another removal, but I had enough tokens to flip the abbey and bring the game home.
Game 2: This one was much faster. I got super inspector (pumped by turn 2 and turn 3 lieutenants). He dealt with lieutenants with removal but super thraben and some burn was enough to control the board and win the game.
Game one of this match was something I really needed at some point. I had everything the previous games did not and it allowed me to forget how bad first rounds were.
Round 6: Aetherworks Marvel 1-2
Game 1: I had opening hand with stasis snare. Decided to keep it although it was far from perfect, but I knew what I was up agains, because I was sitting next to my opponent in one of the previous rounds. He of course got turn 4 marvel and hit emrakul. I did snare him. He did not draw anything that could harm me in the extra turn and I managed to out race him, because he missed on the second marvel spin.
Game 2: Got down to 6, but did not find the snare. Maybe I should've gone to 5? I don't know, I generally don't like mulliganning aggressively with decks other than affinity. It was okay 6 so I kept. He spines marvel and finds ulamong, exiling my creatures. I draw hoping to get one of 6 cards that can help me now, but it was a land. He attacks with ulamong and first thing he mulls is declaration in stone... I still have 3 pieces and hope to hit one. Got inspector, cracked clue, and no... 2nd ulamong attacks mills remaining responses I conceded.
Game 3: I kept 2 alliances in my starting 7, and did not mulligan. Started to go wide and got hit by Kozilek's return. He did not find early marvel so I avoided going wide as much as possible and kept burning him. He eventually found marvel, spinner it and hit... Emarakul. Had it been ulamong then the game would've been fairly open. I responded with 2 alliances to gain life, buy some time and preventing him from gaining life / harming me... he couldn't do much except attacking into emrakul and killing creatures that survived "flashbacked" Kozilek's return (Selfless spirit). I had couple of turns to get that fragmentize & snare / declaration... it was slim chance but still possible especially that 2nd marvel spin missed. So did I on hitting interaction I needed. 3rd marvel spin hits ulamong and when I saw land it was a game over...
It was extremely close game, but matchup against marvel is simply very difficult for us in my experience...
I must say I'm really torn now... On the paper (and when variance does not screw you up) deck looks pretty promising. On the other hand in the current metagame (with the re-raise of marvel decks, and return of RB aggro deck) it does not seem too well positioned. We can beat delirium, but if they manage to stabilize with Ishkanah the game gets really hard...
What comes to my mind right now is to splash black. It might be a good idea because:
it gives us access to shambling vents. Lifelink can be relevant against burn decks
it gives us access to hand disruption, which helps against both madness (exile) and marvel decks
we get access to scrapeheap scounger. This is good, because all of the sudden our dead guys can help him return and we have more targets for Pia's ability. He can also help to flip the abbey (if manabase allows us to play it, which I don't know yet). It also turns on inventor's apprentice (if we want him)
we can swap collective defiance with unlicensed disintegration. I helps to fix manabase (no double red, because we will probably also drop Chandra), it is also turn 2 removal with burn effect later on that would work more often that not with inspectors, pias, copters, and scrapheaps...
There are probably other reasons to do that, but those are the ones that come to my mind immediately. I am aware that this would turn into completely different list, but it still might be worth exploring. After all we want to improve the deck and bring to tier 1...
Anyhow I don't want to take any rush decisions. I throw this here and invite everyone to brainstorm with me. Here is very early idea of WBR list:
Turn 3 odds of/with24-Play24-Draw23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 3) 26.7% 22.4% 24.2%*
Flood (lands > 3) 52.2% 63.2% 58.6%*
*Cumulative odds (3+ lands) are 79.9% for 24-Play and 82.8% for 23-Draw. You have less chances of having exactly 3 lands on turn 3 with 23 lands, but more chances of having that reassuring 4th lands in hand, ready for turn 4.
Turn 4 odds of/with24-Play24-Draw23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 4) 27.5% 25.9% 26.6%**
Flood (lands > 4) 35.7% 46.7% 41.7%**
**Cumulative odds (4+ lands) are 63.2% for 24-Play and 68.3% for 23-Draw. You have less chances of having exactly 4 lands on turn 4 with 23 lands, but more chances of having that reassuring 5th lands in hand, ready for turn 5.
Turn 5 odds of/with24-Play24-Draw23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 5) 24.2% 25.4% 24.8%***
Flood (lands > 5) 22.5% 31.9% 27.2%***
***Comparing 23-Draw vs 24-Draw : It's strictly better losing a tiny 0.6% chance of perfection to gain a 4.7% less chance of flooding out.
Basically, if we were comfortable with the odds of 24 lands on the Play (the basic assumption of worst case scenario for land/turn ratio), then we should be extremely happy with 23 lands on the Draw for game 2 or 3 (post SB). The odds of having lands #3 and #4 on time are better (cumulative odds of 23-Draw vs 24-Play). And compared to 24 lands and on the Draw, there are far less chances of flooding out on turns 5-6+ if we side out a land (to keep only 23 on the Draw).
About Mulligan : Normally, I would mulligan a starting hand with 0-1-5-6-7 lands (22.6% odds with 24 lands, or 23.3% with 23). But on the Draw, I would be tempted to keep a hand with only one land if it has some solid early plays since I know I have 2 more cards to draw to hit land #2 on time (as I did this weekend, with 2 Thraben Inspectors and 2 Smuggler's Copter, and I won that game). Also, I would be tempted to keep a hand with 5 lands on the Draw, knowing the odds of drawing extra lands are drastically lower now (34% instead of 40%), and I still have 2 more cards to draw before I play my turn 2. So, on the Draw, I would mulligan hands with 0-6-7 lands (odds of this happening with 23 lands are only 3.7%, or 3.6% with 24).
Conclusion : Siding out a land on the Draw seems to make sense, with no more chances of mulligans, or missing a land drop on turns 1-5, but with less chances of flooding out on turns 5+.
This wasn't tested in any game yet, it's just my thinking on paper. But I think it might be promising...
I'm aware this diverged pretty far from original idea, let me know if you want to move it to separate thread....
No. Keep it here. I'm comfortable making this a RWx Human Burn thread, if it's the way to make the deck perform to Tier 1.
I looked at your results :
Round 1 : Mulligan to 6 and then super flood ; Mulligan to 6 (due to non-colored lands) and short on creatures.
Round 2 : Super flood, and then mana short.
Round 3 : You got color screwed game 2, and made a mistake on top of that.
Round 6 : You lost to Marvel, a deck that relies on luck. You got matched up against another with 6 points (2-3-0), so he wasn't doing well before. He got lucky and won against you, but I wouldn't say this is a bad matchup.
In the first 3 rounds, variance hit you 5 times out of 6. That's quite extreme, and I would have been quite depressed myself at that point. Making a mistake in round 3 in that circumstance is quite normal.
A few things to fix your "variance" problems :
Don't play Westvale Abbey. It won you a game in round 5, but was flipping the Abbey necessary with a wide board already? Could you have won that game without it? You certainly got forced to mulligan on Round 1 because of Abbey, and probably got screwed on Round 3 too.
Adding a 4th Copter would probably have helped to fix your mana flood, short, screw problems, and even the game when you were short on creatures, or when you were digging for the right answers to Marvel, Emrakul or Ulamog.
Your results and bad luck are disapointing, but it doesn't feel the deck list was the only problem. We'll have to think a lot before making serious changes based on your GP, because otherwise the deck hasn't been that bad so far...
Basically, if we were comfortable with the odds of 24 lands on the Play (the basic assumption of worst case scenario for land/turn ratio), then we should be extremely happy with 23 lands on the Draw for game 2 or 3 (post SB). The odds of having lands #3 and #4 on time are better (cumulative odds of 23-Draw vs 24-Play). And compared to 24 lands and on the Draw, there are far less chances of flooding out on turns 5-6+ if we side out a land (to keep only 23 on the Draw).
...
Conclusion : Siding out a land on the Draw seems to make sense, with no more chances of mulligans, or missing a land drop on turns 1-5, but with less chances of flooding out on turns 5+.
That work with the Hypergeometric Distributions is indeed very interesting. Copter makes things better, but I don't care enough to figure out how much. I find myself skeptical of the logic chain beyond that. Independent of the validity of the logic chain, the conclusion could still be correct.
When you say "if we are comfortable with the odds of 24 lands on the Play ...", that seems like you are pushing the case. In game 1 you have chosen 24 lands based on the combined odds of being on the play and the draw. If the combined odds are ideal at 24, doesn't that mean that the odds of good mana are a little low on the play and a little high on the draw? So when you choose 24 lands for your deck, you are not necessarily comfortable with 24 on the play, but it's just the best compromise for a 50/50 mix of play and draw.
Further, I wonder whether your definition of flood is too severe. Having an extra land at turn 6 doesn't seem harmful compared to the cost of missing my third land drop. If I miss my third land drop twice, I may never be able to catch up. I wonder whether there is starvation, a good range and flooding. All decks flood eventually, so I imagine a deck has a range of turns over which we want to have drawn a range of lands.
Lest you think that I am insisting on a an inflexible land allotment, I do want to bring up some middle grounds. Bear in mind that these seem like common sense to me, but are not at all orthodox. Removing a land and adding a card of gas is a significant adjustment. Mathematically, it seems we have some intermediate options:
61 card main deck. If the last card added is of comparable quality to the next-to-last card, then you have the option of effectively 23.4 or 24.4 lands
Side into 61 cards on the draw. Adding your card of gas without taking a land out still decreases the chance of flooding. Post-board your sideboard can't be more than 15, but it could legally be 14.
None of this proves that your conclusion (pull a land on the draw) is incorrect, but just that it may not work as well as you think and that there are intermediate options.
Please accept my respectful apology if I have misunderstood your argument.
61 card main deck. If the last card added is of comparable quality to the next-to-last card, then you have the option of effectively 23.4 or 24.4 lands
...
Please accept my respectful apology if I have misunderstood your argument.
I beleive the right numbers are 23.6 and 24.6, if you were looking for an equivalent on 60 cards for 24/61 and 25/61.
You haven't misunderstood, and no need to apology.
As for my definition of flooding out : Having in hand, battlefield or graveyard more lands than my basic ratio of 40%. In the first few turns, I'm flooded with too many lands in my hand and thus less options to cast spells (best scenario is 3 lands in hand, then top deck land #4 and #5 on turns 3 and 5). After turn 5, I'm not flooded if the land to cards ratio is around 40% (say 8 lands on 20 cards), but I rarely want to see more than 6 lands (to flip Battlements) and all extras are cycled with Copter or Defiance. Being mana short in the late game is a great thing (top decking non-lands after you hit land #6 is what we all want).
I'm happy with 24 lands on the play. I usually win on the play, and thus my land/card ratio is quite good. On the draw, I'm pretty sure I see a bit too many lands and if one of them could be any of my other spells, many games could have turned out differently ("oh baby, just a burn on the top deck, oh yeah, please, a burn, yes, I'm going to draw a burn and win, or Garrison that I'll haste right away, oh Lord, Gideon and his anthem, or Lieutenant, please... WTF! Another land!!!").
I have been thinking of doing exactly what you suggest : siding in card #61 when on the Draw. It is at least one way to test out the theory that when on the Draw, the land ratio needs not be that high to have the same or better odds. Siding out a land is a bit more extreme, but that way the odds of drawing the other cards of the deck are not diluted by that 61th card. I'll run some tests on XMage. If you do test it out and it gives you a better win ratio on the Draw, please let us know.
61 card main deck. If the last card added is of comparable quality to the next-to-last card, then you have the option of effectively 23.4 or 24.4 lands
...
Please accept my respectful apology if I have misunderstood your argument.
I beleive the right numbers are 23.6 and 24.6, if you were looking for an equivalent on 60 cards for 24/61 and 25/61.
You haven't misunderstood, and no need to apology.
As for my definition of flooding out : Having in hand, battlefield or graveyard more lands than my basic ratio of 40%. In the first few turns, I'm flooded with too many lands in my hand and thus less options to cast spells (best scenario is 3 lands in hand, then top deck land #4 and #5 on turns 3 and 5). After turn 5, I'm not flooded if the land to cards ratio is around 40% (say 8 lands on 20 cards), but I rarely want to see more than 6 lands (to flip Battlements) and all extras are cycled with Copter or Defiance. Being mana short in the late game is a great thing (top decking non-lands after you hit land #6 is what we all want).
I'm happy with 24 lands on the play. I usually win on the play, and thus my land/card ratio is quite good. On the draw, I'm pretty sure I see a bit too many lands and if one of them could be any of my other spells, many games could have turned out differently ("oh baby, just a burn on the top deck, oh yeah, please, a burn, yes, I'm going to draw a burn and win, or Garrison that I'll haste right away, oh Lord, Gideon and his anthem, or Lieutenant, please... WTF! Another land!!!").
I have been thinking of doing exactly what you suggest : siding in card #61 when on the Draw. It is at least one way to test out the theory that when on the Draw, the land ratio needs not be that high to have the same or better odds. Siding out a land is a bit more extreme, but that way the odds of drawing the other cards of the deck are not diluted by that 61th card. I'll run some tests on XMage. If you do test it out and it gives you a better win ratio on the Draw, please let us know.
I do side in a 61st card of gas reasonably often, but between playing different decks and not playing enough matches for it to be statistically significant, I can't advise you.
Frank Karsten's article today on Channel Fireball is about Mardu Vehicles. I found it quite interesting, and there are elements there that can be imported in our deck.
Frank also said something that struck me about the SB, and I'll quote him here :
Severa had 4 Galvanic Bombardment in the sideboard, in line with the aggregate list. But there is no deck other than the Electrostatic Pummeler deck (which almost no one plays) against which I would like to board in Galvanic Bombardment. Even in the mirror match, I prefer creatures and answers against Smuggler’s Copter. I would not play this card in the sideboard.
I have similar concerns about Declaration in Stone. I prefer Key to the City against Ishkanah, I prefer Fairgrounds Warden against Emrakul, and I prefer Chandra, Torch of Defiance against Kalitas, and I would build my sideboard accordingly.
I have always been tempted to side in Galvanic Bombardment against Boros Vehicles, Mardu Vehicles and Rakdos Aggro. Could we have been wrong the whole time? As for Declaration in Stone vs Ishkanah... He has a point that if we want to be aggressive, we should be more focused on dodging blockers than trying to remove them. Key to the City could even be good against Kalitas, just for denying a crucial block and prevent opponent from stabilizing.
I will put more thoughts to all this, but I would like to get your opinions too.
Also, I've been thinking about Selfless Spirit and Archangel Avacyn. I think the deck would be better with them than extra removals. Instead of trying to remove opponent's creatures, we may be better protecting ours with some aggressivity (flyers can attack too). Avacyn's transformation is good at wiping the board, and we need more of that against Aggro, with Spirit to either trigger the sweeper or to protect us from it. Also, Spirit and Avacyn can both be used to ambush attackers and stabilize. And crewing a Copter on turn 3 with a Spirit to protect our investment is better than you can imagine.
With the rise of Marvel decks that now all plays Ishkanah (and GB is not dead yet), flipping Avacyn in a 6/5 to wipe spider tokens and attack into Ishkanah or Mindwrack Demon becomes a win condition. Also, having her and Spirit to protect our humans from Kozilek's Return (will likely make a comeback with Marvel) will be more and more important.
I've tested this version of the deck just for fun on XMage:
I only got to play against UR Control (win 2-0). Game 1, he flooded on Dynavolt Towers, and probably didn't had enough spells to trigger them. Even then, I wasn't sweating. Spirit and Avacyn both made certain his removals were useless. Game 2 (I did side out a land), he had 2 Thing in the Ice, and I removed none before they flipped, on two different turns. He attacked on the first flip for 7, and again next turn for 14. But I blocked one with Avacyn and was down to 6, him at 14. I followed then with 2 Lieutenants and 1 Spirit, and attacked for 4 with Vigilance (down to 10). Board presence meant that he could no longer safely attack with his two 7/8 horrors. During his turn, I sacrificed Spirit. Avacyn flipped on my turn, wiping my board and dealing 3 damage to opponent (down to 7). Avacyn then attacked for 6 (down to 1), and I burned the rest with Collective Defiance. Opponent was certain to win with two flipped Things. But Avacyn's ambush ability is so good, and flipping + attacking for a total of 9 damage in a single turn is too much for many matchups.
I intend to explore that new list with Key to the City and Fiery Temper...
BTW, if we're to splash a 3rd color, with the rise of Marvel decks, it may be better to add blue for Ceremonious Rejection and Reflector Mage (Human and Removal). We should at least consider the value of this option. Even if black for Disintegration and Scrounger could be very good, blue could be even better in the metagame. Green still is attractive, if only for Sigarda (bigger than Ishkanah and Demon, protects Humans, creates Humans and protects us from Emrakul's ability and spells like Transgress the Mind) and Heron's Grace Champion (life boost to stabilize vs Aggro).
I have updated the results in the OP and my signature. I haven't updated the deck in OP however, as I'm brewing a lot with the deck list at the moment. Here's the last version I have in mind, inspired by Frank Karsten's article about Mardu Vehicles.
2-0 vs Bant Midrange : He was getting wider at some point with tons à Loam Dryad, Thraben Inspectors and Reflector Mage. But I stabilized with fat Lieutenants, and when Avacyn joined the battle, opponent just conceded (he probably realized she would flip quickly without killing all my Humans).
1-2 vs Rakdos Amalgams : First defeat on XMage with this deck. Hard to respond to their threat. I beleive Repel the Abominable may be an appropriate SB card in this matchup.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
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and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
i used the deck this past FNM, having subbed in westvale. i went 2-1, my only loss being against U/W Flash spirits. ive come to realize that control is my worst matchup. westvale didnt hinder nor improve my deck as i didnt see much of it.
I think v1.1 did better against UW Flash, than the current one... Back then, I played a 3rd copy of Flame Lash in the main deck (instead of a 3rd Gideon), 2 Pia Nalaar and 1 Gisela, the Broken Blade instead of 3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar, and 3rd Selfless Spirit instead of Always Watching.
Should we conclude that we have reduced the number of instants and flyers too much, focused as we were on beating Delirium?
The 3rd copies of Flame Lash and Selfless Spirit were also quite good against Control... As was Pia Nalaar (two removals were required to deal with her).
@JoeSchmoe is right : If we're dedicated at making this deck Tier 1, budget considerations are to be ignored, and I'm willing to buy my 4th Copter and 4th Gideon. However, *maybe* the deck would be better with the above mentioned cards of v1.1, somewhere in the 75. And *maybe* the deck is better having all these different cards to dig for in the main deck, to face the different decks, rather than rely too heavily on a single strategy.
About Incendiary Flow : @JoeSchmoe has very strong arguments. But I haven't had particular problems against Boros or Mardu Vehicles decks... yet. Maybe these decks are not so popular in my local metagame, or I was lucky the few times I played against them, or I play the deck right for the matchup (something I can't say against Control). I don't know. For the moment, having the option to Burn the player or Planeswalkers is more appealing *to me* than getting instant speed *in my local metagame*. I may well change opinion next week, but for the moment my challenge is to beat Control and UW Flash (Delirium has been figured out, I beleive). Let's just agree that we disagree on these 4 cards, and let's continue to work together to make the deck great!
Posting your results here, and telling the communinity what was good, and what went wrong, can only help us. So continue posting with your stories, opinions, etc.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
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and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
vs Jeskai Dybnavolt control
- Game 1: We both got a bit flooded, but I ended up drawing more threats than he did removals. Neither tower, nor glimmer showed for him, so really bad draw.
- Game 2: It was a close one. He sided in weavers, but I kept burning them with defiance. I went full blown with defiance knowing he set up with glimmer twice. Discarding all his mass removal made me happy. But then I don't draw creatures and he has 2 gearhulks on board. Abbey buys me some time, but i don't draw the last burn spell i need / decstone to survive longer.
- Game 3: This time I have a quick hand that takes over. He is forced to cast radiant flames with 2 colors, which leaves me with 2/3 inspector. I bring him to 3 live and I have defiance and flow. He only has one counterspell
2 - 1
vs Delirium
- Game 1: I go: inspector, clue, garrison, thalia, garrison, garrison. Opponent has removal but not enough to take care of multiple garrisons & thalia
- Game 2: I burn his trackers & khalitas, but he stabilizes with Ishkanah. I still have enough to block but then first gearhulk saves him from being burned, and then I got emrakuled and don't have response
- Game 3: I kept 4 lands, inspector and 2 removals. in restrospect I should've mulled. I had him on 9 life, then 2 flame lashes happend and he's on 1. Then I never got the last burn I needed.
1 - 2
vs Zombie-delirium
- Game 1: I have 3 inspectors and lieutenant in my opening hand. My first draw is... 4th inspector. So with abundance of clues and 4 2/3 i can defend against his restless dead. Amalgams did not come early luckily. He stabilizes with Ishkanah, I respond with Avacyn to get rid of his spirits. I cast the garrison. He emerges decimator of ishkanah and attacks with everything. I block with all my creatures, sacrifice all but garrison to flip the abbey. Avacy also flips, cause garrison died. My turn is Gideon, emblem, attack with avacyn, spires and ormendal. GG
- Game 2: I have to kill liliana and give him delirium. He picks the brain avacyn, and following turn lost legacies gideon. Ouch. I try to fight back with burn, but I have to burn his creatures to survive...
- Game 3: Inspector into lieutenant into thalia, and flowing his flyers. he grapples, gets 3rd flayer, picks the brain (no delirium) and sees 2 thalias and flame lash. Decides to discard thalia. In the end flame lash was the finisher I needed and he did not have removal to deal with two thalias. He agreed he should've taken out removal.
2 - 1
It was abbeys time to shine this time.
I am thinking - should we maybe include 1-2 stasis snare to deal with Emrakul / Bruna / any annoying creature? I thought of replacing Castigator with it as it did not really shine so far for me.. What do you think pat?
Btw. I still plan to play the deck this week on a GP, expect some results soon
The only game you lost was against Delirium, and you got him down to 1 life. Cruel.
JoeSchmoe's list includes 2 Stasis Snare to deal with Emrakul, Bruna, Demon and other fatties. And 4 Copters to dig it out of the library. It may be more reasonable to play it than not, even if it's a removal that can't burn. Instant speed also fixes the problem of Vehicles. Probably instead of Incendiary Flow, but I won't be happy with the change until the card gets me some victories. I am that thorned about it, mostly because it is out of theme. But hey, we're asking for advice and Joe is generous with them ; least we can do is respect that and test out his suggestions instead of theorycrafting the card out of the list.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
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and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Also another thing - I don't know how about you guys but I most often end up boarding out copters for game two. I don't know if that's correct but my reasoning is: either they cannot get through and die (Ishkanah in delirium & fliers in flash), which makes them meh game 1, or once they see them they'll probably bring some responses game 2 which makes copters worse. With that in mind - maybe we should consider cutting one copter? Or are they too good a card and we want just consistently draw them?
On a completely unrelated topic: decklists have this fancy spot for deck inventor, what do I write there @patbou?
Considering my deck already appeared on MTG Top 8, it's not like I have a secret identity anymore! You can find my name there.
I often cut a Copter post SB, particularly if I find myself boarding out 3+ creatures.
All the easy decisions for the deck have been made, and we know the core. There's at most 2 or 3 cards in the SB that can be replaced by others, and maybe 6 in the main deck (Flow and Lash). We're fine tuning to get the best recipe, and unfortunately there's not hundreds of players out there piloting this deck to help us with it...
I don't have time for FNM this week, but will go to Showdown on Saturday. I don't know if the metagame will be Flash and Delirium, or if people will bring in fun decks. I really love deck building, but deck fine-tuning is way more complicated than I thought it would be!
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
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and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
For the time being, I think it's important that we all agree on what is the deck's core cards :
2 Aether Hub
2 Hanweir Battlements
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
Creatures (14)
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
3 Smuggler's Copter
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Removals (6)
4 Collective Defiance
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Fragmentize
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Declaration in Stone
2 Blessed Alliance
4 Galvanic Bombardment
So, we're left with 10 slots for the main deck, and 4 for the SB, to fine-tune the deck and get it to Tier 1 in each of our own metagame. I guess the list would be pretty much the same for all of us in a GP, but local metagame differs greatly and I wouldn't run the same list for a PPTQ or GP, than for a local event like FNM (where SB will be more oriented to the decks my friends play there).
Now, what are the cards we should put in to really have the best list ?
LANDS
I may change my mind before tomorrow's Showdown, but here are the cards I think will fill these slots (10 main and 4 SB) :
I'm reluctant to call this v1.9, yet. What do you think? Should we really ditch Spirits and Angels for more Gideons and some Militia Captain? Or keep that as it is?
Edit : For sake of clarity, here's the formatted deck list...
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Aether Hub
1 Westvale Abbey
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
Humans Creatures (15)
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Pia Nalaar
2 Selfless Spirit
2 Archangel Avacyn
Support Spells (7)
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
Burn/Removal spells (10)
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Stasis Snare
4 Collective Defiance
2 Flame Lash
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Flame Lash
1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Pia Nalaar
1 Selfless Spirit
2 Declaration in Stone
2 Blessed Alliance
2 Fragmentize
4 Galvanic Bombardment
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Can you tell us a bit about Hanweir Militia Captain? Did it play well? It flipped often?
Also, I see that you often side out Gideon. Do you think 3 in the main deck is better number?
Finally, why do you so often take out Collective Defiance when sideboarding?
Note : SB on the play vs UW Flash doesn't work. You remove 6 cards, and add 8...
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Thanks Joe, BTW. Your help is very much appreciated!
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Joe's style tells me he's quite experienced, and/or has a deep understanding of the game. We would be dumb to not listen to him. Some ideas may not be our own personal style, but other inputs are plain brilliant, and have inspired me to v2.0 of the deck. I call it 2.0 because it's the first step (albeit shy) away from the Burn theme, by replacing 2 Incendiary Flow with 2 Stasis Snare.
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Aether Hub
1 Stone Quarry
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
Humans Creatures (15)
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
2 Selfless Spirit
2 Archangel Avacyn
Support Spells (7)
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
Burn/Removal spells (10)
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Stasis Snare
4 Collective Defiance
2 Flame Lash
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Nahiri, the Harbringer
2 Declaration in Stone
2 Pia Nalaar
1 Selfless Spirit
2 Weaver of Lightning
2 Fragmentize
4 Galvanic Bombardment
Creatures : I've decided to keep the 4 flyers in the deck (2 Spirits and 2 Avacyns), because 1) Control is very present in my local metagame, 2) Flying, Flash and Indestructible are great against Control and 3) Control only gets better as Standard matures, and I feel it will soon become a thing. I prefer these 4 flyers than 3 Hanweir Militia Captain and a 4th Planeswalker. Captain feels like a vanilla 2/2 more often than not, and only good at surviving Liliana's +1. I also kept the 3rd Thalia, Heretic Cathartic in the main deck, because she is super good against the Tier 1 decks right now (and Pia Nalaar is not main deck material for us).
Removals : I really love to Burn opponent, so I kept the very versatile Flame Lash in the 75 (2 in the main deck ; instead of Declaration in Stone). I still prefer Incendiary Flow over Harnessed Lightning (for the moment), but I have to respect the choice of Stasis Snare (2 of, replacing some Flows), because it can deal with everything at instant speed.
Support : It makes sense to play the full playset of Copters, to dig for the cards we need to win the current matchup, so I added a 4th copy in the main deck (instead of Always Watching). And I decided to keep only 2 Gideons in the main deck. Not only because I realized how often Joe was systematically siding it out, but because he finally found the words I needed to understand Chandra. She's good at defense, while Gideon is all offense. With that, and no guarantee to win the toss and be on the play first, I beleive it is better for me to play her main deck, as a safety if I'm on the draw game 1 (and swap her with Gideon #3 if I'm on the play game 2 or 3).
Lands : I've checked my maths, and the deck really needs 16 white and 16 red mana sources to cast WW or RR on turn 3 (76%). Westvale Abbey can only be played in the main deck instead of Hanweir Battlements (no way) or as land #25 (no way too). So I'll keep it out of the deck for a while longer. Going back to Stone Quarry. It ETB tapped, but it's a great fixer.
Sideboard : Instead of Joe's 2 Harnessed Lightning and 2 Skywhaler's Shot (or my 2 Castigators, 1 Lash and Fragmentize #3), I'm playing with 1 Nahiri, 2 Pia and 1 Spirit in the SB. I've added Nahiri to better control and exile in the GB Delirium matchup. As for the other removals, I beleive the main and side decks have what it needs to Control the most aggressive opponents, but we otherwise lack what's needed to deal with Control. Pia Nalaar is taxing, as she requires 2 cards to be dealt with. She's also a great mana sink (pseudo card advantage). And Spirit #3 helps against sweepers. Finally, everything Joe said about Weaver of Lightning is genius. I'm putting it there instead of Blessed Alliance, and really hope I'll not face Gruul Energy tomorrow!
Ok. Enough theory. I'll catch some sleep before tomorrow's Showdown.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
I believe this is my first time posting here, but I've been following this thread for at least a couple of weeks now and I have been a huge fan of humans ever since the first Innistrad block was released. When Kaladesh first came out I fell in love with vehicles, and so I started the standard metagame this season with W/R Dwarfs, then progressed to Mardu Vehicles. As G/B Delirium became the dominating deck at my LGS Mardu wasn't cutting it anymore. Hanweir Garrison is probably my favorite card in standard right now, as it reminds me of Goblin Rabblemaster. I currently have Craig Wescoe's Mono-W Humans list sleeved up, as I'm waiting on my last two Gideons in the mail. However, I have done extensive play testing with both a Mardu Humans list online as well as just R/W.
Question:
I know this list is for BOROS Human Burn, but has anybody else tried splashing black for Mardu? I've always loved Collective Defiance, but ever since someone pointed out to me that Unlicensed Disintegration is strictly better I've had a hard time not running that instead. And of course the other reason to splash black is Scrapheap Scrounger. It's not as crucial in a Humans list, especially mine where I have only 3 Apprentices, but it definitely helps in the long game. Does the splash significantly hurt the mana base? You get Shambling Vent as well, and Collective Defiance is no longer an issue.
Still, while I'm uncertain if the splash is too much of a hindrance on the mana, straight R/W does feel a bit more comfortably consistent. This is the decklist I've been playtesting online at the moment.
4 Thraben Inspector
3 Inventor's Apprentice
1 Hanweir Militia Captain
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
3 Selfless Spirit
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
Non-creature Spells
4 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
4 Smuggler's Copter
4 Declaration in Stone
4 Incendiary Flow
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Westvale Abbey
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Needle Spires
7 Plains
5 Mountain
4 Galvanic Bombardment
2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Collective Effort
2 Weaver of Lightning
1 Selfless Spirit
2 Stasis Snare
2 Skywhaler's Shot
For Mardu I basically take out the spirits and incendiary flow for scrapheaps and unlicensed disintegration.
I'm not so sure about Inventor's Apprentice in your deck list. With only 4 Copters and some Clues to help it, it will likely be a 1/2 most of the time. You probably need Pia Nalaar to add a Human and an Artifact.
I've thought about going Mardu for the same reasons you mentioned, or Naya for Voltaic Brawler, Tireless Tracker and Heron's Grace Champion. But is splashing a third color more cute than helpful?
About Collective Defiance vs Unlicensed Disintegration, it's not true it is strictly better. True, it's an instant, and it says destroy. But burning the dome is conditionnal. You can't just Burn for 3 if that's what you want/need (finisher), and/or you don't want, for some reason, to destroy a creature (to avoid transforming Avacyn, for example).
But I got a taste of Rakdos Aggro today, and opponent was playing the full play sets of each of Unlicensed Disintegration, Collective Defiance and Fiery Temper. He could go full aggressive, and then control while burning, burning, burning.
Here are my results : 3rd place, out of around 20 players. I made the cut to Top 4 after 5 rounds (3-1-1), but I immediately conceded to my opponent (again that Rakdos Aggro deck) because I had to go. I went there expecting 4 rounds of Swiss, not 5 + Top 4. I cashed in my prize anyway, and I'll never know if I could have find the way to beat that matchup.
Izzet Prowess : 2-0
Rakdos Aggro : 0-2
Simic Midrange : 2-0
Jeskai Control : 2-1
Golgari Delirium : 1-1
I'll post the details maybe tomorrow, but that last game was really played (no intentional draw). I won the first game on the draw, lost game 2 to mana flood (10 lands on 19 cards), and we went on time game 3 (playing 3 consecutive Thalia on turns 3, 4 and 5, while he had God hand). Draw!
I have to go...
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Madrid GP has ended. I got home and finally have some time to share my thoughts about the deck. And to report my results.
First of all thanks to everyone involved in this thread - your tips were very helpful and often pointed me out in the right direction.
Second of all I really recommend everyone to go to a GP at least once. It's been a great experience and I believe it already made me a better player. Also a benefit is memorizing your DCI after filling all registrations sheets
I expected to see a lot of marvel and RB Aggro/madness decks + the traditional trio of delirium, flash and vehicles. Based on this I decided I need main deck answers for things like Emrakul / Ulamong and Voldaren Pariah / Prized Amalgams / Restless Dead. My first idea was to cut Selfless Spirits & one Copter. That gave me slots to fit 2 Stasis Snare & 2nd Always Watching, but after testing I realized it is wrong. There were two problems - too many removal spells & too few creatures to justify two anthems. I did some more testing and the list I settled upon was not too far from version 2.0. Without further ado here's the deck list:
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Aether Hub
1 Westvale Abbey
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
Humans Creatures (15)
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
3 Selfless Spirit
2 Archangel Avacyn
Support Spells (7)
3 Smuggler's Copter
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Always Watching
Burn/Removal spells (10)
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Stasis Snare
4 Collective Defiance
2 Flame Lash
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Flame Lash
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Declaration in Stone
2 Blessed Alliance
3 Fragmentize
4 Galvanic Bombardment
I haven't thought about Pia again when testing and maybe that was a mistake. My reasoning was that we don't have enough artifact creatures to make her ability relevant...
I did very poorly in the main event 1-4 (well, 2-4, but as one of the wins was a no show I'm not counting it here) and dropped to play in the side events.
Here are the detailed descriptions:
Round 1 vs UW flash 0-2
Game 1: I am on the play. Opening hand with 2 inspectors but only 1 plains. I would've kept if I had a second land. Mulligan down to 6... Hand looked okay but in the end I got super flooded with 7 lands in 11 cards, and only had one inspector and lieutenant. Not much I could've done.
Game 2: Again I had to mull to 6. I was first time I had this awkward hands with lands but not enough colored sources to play. Well those things. Happen. 6 were inspector, 2 lieutenants, flow and 2 lands. I was okay. I missed my 3rd land drop, but it wasn't a big issue. Later in the game I kept drawing lands / removal, but no creatures. I did an overinvestment to kill resolved Gideon when he was tapped out which left me with no response to Avacyn in the following turns... killing Gideon on the spot was probably a mistake, but if I'm aggro and I'm not drawing creatures then it's bad.
Conclusion after this match: I probably did not shuffle well enough after lying the deck out to write the decklist...
Round 2: Mardu vehicles: 0 - 2
Game 1: I get 4 lands, 2 inspectors and flow. Not perfect but clues can help digging for cards so I kept. I also kept drawing lands (7 lands I burn). I was quite disappointed after that game. I was 3rd time in the row deck decided to not help me. We'll take a deep breath and play game 2.
Game 2: I kept a greedy hand with 2 lands and inspector. And got punished for it by being mana hosed for a change... hashtag sad.
First 4 games were very unlucky. And get me into a bit bad mindset. I really wanted to have a normal game of magic, but variance decided otherwise... well that's life. Good side was that this match finished early so I had a bit time to chill out and change my mindset.
Round 3: RB Madness 0-2
Game 1: it was a classic race. Unfortunately they are faster then we do. I had Thalia to slow him down a bit, but she got burned and then I did not draw response to Pariah.
Game 2: I kept hand with Needle Spires being my only white source. And then I kept drawing spells costing double white. Once I got my 2nd whit source it was to late for Gideon, he had Pariah to respond to my Avacyn... I also made a mistake of not blocking with Spires when I could've.... was probably too nervous to think straight...
At least I had one fair game this time... that helped a bit. 2nd game was my mistake and wrong keep decision...
Round 4. No show
I had to time to chill and get the duals signed. It was good to have that break - it helped a lot to deal with overall disappointment of deck's (and mine) underwhelming performance.
Round 5: UWG Delirium Superfriends: 2-0
Game 1: He won the toss. Turn 2 Grim Flayer. I respond with inspector (turn 1 was Spires). He attacks, no blocks. Turn 3 Liliana... ouch this is looking very bad. 2nd attack with flayer and still no delirium. I drew drew 2nd stasis snare so I snare flayer before the damage but liliana keeps ticking. He played shambling vent turn 4 so I got a bit confused. Turn 5 was Gisela and I immediately used my 2nd snare. Lifeline is not something we want on the board. Then he casts scoring and is step for multi sting Lilly. I respond with Garrison, give it haste and it and tokes deal with Lilly. He casts grasp of darkness and I do with second garrison which help against Sorin. He got another removal, but I had enough tokens to flip the abbey and bring the game home.
Game 2: This one was much faster. I got super inspector (pumped by turn 2 and turn 3 lieutenants). He dealt with lieutenants with removal but super thraben and some burn was enough to control the board and win the game.
Game one of this match was something I really needed at some point. I had everything the previous games did not and it allowed me to forget how bad first rounds were.
Round 6: Aetherworks Marvel 1-2
Game 1: I had opening hand with stasis snare. Decided to keep it although it was far from perfect, but I knew what I was up agains, because I was sitting next to my opponent in one of the previous rounds. He of course got turn 4 marvel and hit emrakul. I did snare him. He did not draw anything that could harm me in the extra turn and I managed to out race him, because he missed on the second marvel spin.
Game 2: Got down to 6, but did not find the snare. Maybe I should've gone to 5? I don't know, I generally don't like mulliganning aggressively with decks other than affinity. It was okay 6 so I kept. He spines marvel and finds ulamong, exiling my creatures. I draw hoping to get one of 6 cards that can help me now, but it was a land. He attacks with ulamong and first thing he mulls is declaration in stone... I still have 3 pieces and hope to hit one. Got inspector, cracked clue, and no... 2nd ulamong attacks mills remaining responses I conceded.
Game 3: I kept 2 alliances in my starting 7, and did not mulligan. Started to go wide and got hit by Kozilek's return. He did not find early marvel so I avoided going wide as much as possible and kept burning him. He eventually found marvel, spinner it and hit... Emarakul. Had it been ulamong then the game would've been fairly open. I responded with 2 alliances to gain life, buy some time and preventing him from gaining life / harming me... he couldn't do much except attacking into emrakul and killing creatures that survived "flashbacked" Kozilek's return (Selfless spirit). I had couple of turns to get that fragmentize & snare / declaration... it was slim chance but still possible especially that 2nd marvel spin missed. So did I on hitting interaction I needed. 3rd marvel spin hits ulamong and when I saw land it was a game over...
It was extremely close game, but matchup against marvel is simply very difficult for us in my experience...
I must say I'm really torn now... On the paper (and when variance does not screw you up) deck looks pretty promising. On the other hand in the current metagame (with the re-raise of marvel decks, and return of RB aggro deck) it does not seem too well positioned. We can beat delirium, but if they manage to stabilize with Ishkanah the game gets really hard...
What comes to my mind right now is to splash black. It might be a good idea because:
Anyhow I don't want to take any rush decisions. I throw this here and invite everyone to brainstorm with me. Here is very early idea of WBR list:
2 Hanweir Battlements
4 Shambling Vent
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
2 Aether Hub
1 Swamp
2 Mountains
3 Plains
Humans (19)
4 Thraben Inspector
3 Inventor's Apprentice
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
2 Thalia, Heretic Carhar
2 Pia Nalaar
4 Hanweir Garrison
2 Selfess Spirit
4 Smugglers Copter
3 Scrapeheap Scounger
Removal (8)
2 Incendiary Flow
2 Stasis Snare
4 Unlicensed disintegration
Planeswalker (2)
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Stasis Snare
2 Incendiary Flow
3 Transgress The Mind
4 Galvanic Bombardment
2 Fragmentize
2 Declaration in Stone
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Alternatively we might try to fit 2 evolving wilds (instead of mountain & plains), but with 8 man lands they feel way too slow...
This wasn't tested in any game yet, it's just my thinking on paper. But I think it might be promising...
I'm aware this diverged pretty far from original idea, let me know if you want to move it to separate thread....
Turn 3 odds of/with 24-Play 24-Draw 23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 3) 26.7% 22.4% 24.2%*
Flood (lands > 3) 52.2% 63.2% 58.6%*
*Cumulative odds (3+ lands) are 79.9% for 24-Play and 82.8% for 23-Draw. You have less chances of having exactly 3 lands on turn 3 with 23 lands, but more chances of having that reassuring 4th lands in hand, ready for turn 4.
Turn 4 odds of/with 24-Play 24-Draw 23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 4) 27.5% 25.9% 26.6%**
Flood (lands > 4) 35.7% 46.7% 41.7%**
**Cumulative odds (4+ lands) are 63.2% for 24-Play and 68.3% for 23-Draw. You have less chances of having exactly 4 lands on turn 4 with 23 lands, but more chances of having that reassuring 5th lands in hand, ready for turn 5.
Turn 5 odds of/with 24-Play 24-Draw 23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 5) 24.2% 25.4% 24.8%***
Flood (lands > 5) 22.5% 31.9% 27.2%***
***Comparing 23-Draw vs 24-Draw : It's strictly better losing a tiny 0.6% chance of perfection to gain a 4.7% less chance of flooding out.
Turn 6 odds of/with 24-Play 24-Draw 23-Draw
Perfect (lands = 6) 18.7% 21.8% 20.1%
Flood (lands > 6) 13.2% 20.2% 16.4%
Basically, if we were comfortable with the odds of 24 lands on the Play (the basic assumption of worst case scenario for land/turn ratio), then we should be extremely happy with 23 lands on the Draw for game 2 or 3 (post SB). The odds of having lands #3 and #4 on time are better (cumulative odds of 23-Draw vs 24-Play). And compared to 24 lands and on the Draw, there are far less chances of flooding out on turns 5-6+ if we side out a land (to keep only 23 on the Draw).
About Mulligan : Normally, I would mulligan a starting hand with 0-1-5-6-7 lands (22.6% odds with 24 lands, or 23.3% with 23). But on the Draw, I would be tempted to keep a hand with only one land if it has some solid early plays since I know I have 2 more cards to draw to hit land #2 on time (as I did this weekend, with 2 Thraben Inspectors and 2 Smuggler's Copter, and I won that game). Also, I would be tempted to keep a hand with 5 lands on the Draw, knowing the odds of drawing extra lands are drastically lower now (34% instead of 40%), and I still have 2 more cards to draw before I play my turn 2. So, on the Draw, I would mulligan hands with 0-6-7 lands (odds of this happening with 23 lands are only 3.7%, or 3.6% with 24).
Conclusion : Siding out a land on the Draw seems to make sense, with no more chances of mulligans, or missing a land drop on turns 1-5, but with less chances of flooding out on turns 5+.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
No. Keep it here. I'm comfortable making this a RWx Human Burn thread, if it's the way to make the deck perform to Tier 1.
I looked at your results :
In the first 3 rounds, variance hit you 5 times out of 6. That's quite extreme, and I would have been quite depressed myself at that point. Making a mistake in round 3 in that circumstance is quite normal.
A few things to fix your "variance" problems :
Don't play Westvale Abbey. It won you a game in round 5, but was flipping the Abbey necessary with a wide board already? Could you have won that game without it? You certainly got forced to mulligan on Round 1 because of Abbey, and probably got screwed on Round 3 too.
Adding a 4th Copter would probably have helped to fix your mana flood, short, screw problems, and even the game when you were short on creatures, or when you were digging for the right answers to Marvel, Emrakul or Ulamog.
Your results and bad luck are disapointing, but it doesn't feel the deck list was the only problem. We'll have to think a lot before making serious changes based on your GP, because otherwise the deck hasn't been that bad so far...
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
Btw: what is your opinion of going white weenie? Here's an interesting list from top 16
That work with the Hypergeometric Distributions is indeed very interesting. Copter makes things better, but I don't care enough to figure out how much. I find myself skeptical of the logic chain beyond that. Independent of the validity of the logic chain, the conclusion could still be correct.
When you say "if we are comfortable with the odds of 24 lands on the Play ...", that seems like you are pushing the case. In game 1 you have chosen 24 lands based on the combined odds of being on the play and the draw. If the combined odds are ideal at 24, doesn't that mean that the odds of good mana are a little low on the play and a little high on the draw? So when you choose 24 lands for your deck, you are not necessarily comfortable with 24 on the play, but it's just the best compromise for a 50/50 mix of play and draw.
Further, I wonder whether your definition of flood is too severe. Having an extra land at turn 6 doesn't seem harmful compared to the cost of missing my third land drop. If I miss my third land drop twice, I may never be able to catch up. I wonder whether there is starvation, a good range and flooding. All decks flood eventually, so I imagine a deck has a range of turns over which we want to have drawn a range of lands.
Lest you think that I am insisting on a an inflexible land allotment, I do want to bring up some middle grounds. Bear in mind that these seem like common sense to me, but are not at all orthodox. Removing a land and adding a card of gas is a significant adjustment. Mathematically, it seems we have some intermediate options:
None of this proves that your conclusion (pull a land on the draw) is incorrect, but just that it may not work as well as you think and that there are intermediate options.
Please accept my respectful apology if I have misunderstood your argument.
RNA Standard: Grixis Midrange, Jund Deathwhirler, Sultai Vannifar
GRN Standard: Red Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Wr Aggro, Gruul Experimental Dinosaurs, Sultai Midrange, Jeskai Midrange
Modern: Bant Spirits
Forcing a single archetype in all formats: too many colors, bad mana.
I beleive the right numbers are 23.6 and 24.6, if you were looking for an equivalent on 60 cards for 24/61 and 25/61.
You haven't misunderstood, and no need to apology.
As for my definition of flooding out : Having in hand, battlefield or graveyard more lands than my basic ratio of 40%. In the first few turns, I'm flooded with too many lands in my hand and thus less options to cast spells (best scenario is 3 lands in hand, then top deck land #4 and #5 on turns 3 and 5). After turn 5, I'm not flooded if the land to cards ratio is around 40% (say 8 lands on 20 cards), but I rarely want to see more than 6 lands (to flip Battlements) and all extras are cycled with Copter or Defiance. Being mana short in the late game is a great thing (top decking non-lands after you hit land #6 is what we all want).
I'm happy with 24 lands on the play. I usually win on the play, and thus my land/card ratio is quite good. On the draw, I'm pretty sure I see a bit too many lands and if one of them could be any of my other spells, many games could have turned out differently ("oh baby, just a burn on the top deck, oh yeah, please, a burn, yes, I'm going to draw a burn and win, or Garrison that I'll haste right away, oh Lord, Gideon and his anthem, or Lieutenant, please... WTF! Another land!!!").
I have been thinking of doing exactly what you suggest : siding in card #61 when on the Draw. It is at least one way to test out the theory that when on the Draw, the land ratio needs not be that high to have the same or better odds. Siding out a land is a bit more extreme, but that way the odds of drawing the other cards of the deck are not diluted by that 61th card. I'll run some tests on XMage. If you do test it out and it gives you a better win ratio on the Draw, please let us know.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
I do side in a 61st card of gas reasonably often, but between playing different decks and not playing enough matches for it to be statistically significant, I can't advise you.
RNA Standard: Grixis Midrange, Jund Deathwhirler, Sultai Vannifar
GRN Standard: Red Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Wr Aggro, Gruul Experimental Dinosaurs, Sultai Midrange, Jeskai Midrange
Modern: Bant Spirits
Forcing a single archetype in all formats: too many colors, bad mana.
Particularly about Fiery Temper over Harnessed Lightning and the inclusion of Key to the City. I don't think we have tried these cards in the deck yet.
Frank also said something that struck me about the SB, and I'll quote him here :
I have always been tempted to side in Galvanic Bombardment against Boros Vehicles, Mardu Vehicles and Rakdos Aggro. Could we have been wrong the whole time? As for Declaration in Stone vs Ishkanah... He has a point that if we want to be aggressive, we should be more focused on dodging blockers than trying to remove them. Key to the City could even be good against Kalitas, just for denying a crucial block and prevent opponent from stabilizing.
I will put more thoughts to all this, but I would like to get your opinions too.
Also, I've been thinking about Selfless Spirit and Archangel Avacyn. I think the deck would be better with them than extra removals. Instead of trying to remove opponent's creatures, we may be better protecting ours with some aggressivity (flyers can attack too). Avacyn's transformation is good at wiping the board, and we need more of that against Aggro, with Spirit to either trigger the sweeper or to protect us from it. Also, Spirit and Avacyn can both be used to ambush attackers and stabilize. And crewing a Copter on turn 3 with a Spirit to protect our investment is better than you can imagine.
With the rise of Marvel decks that now all plays Ishkanah (and GB is not dead yet), flipping Avacyn in a 6/5 to wipe spider tokens and attack into Ishkanah or Mindwrack Demon becomes a win condition. Also, having her and Spirit to protect our humans from Kozilek's Return (will likely make a comeback with Marvel) will be more and more important.
I've tested this version of the deck just for fun on XMage:
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Aether Hub
1 Stone Quarry
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
2 Hanweir Militia Captain
4 Hanweir Garrison
3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
Support Creatures (6)
3 Selfless Spirit
3 Archangel Avacyn
4 Smuggler's Copter
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Burn/Removal spells (6)
4 Collective Defiance
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Nahiri, the Harbringer
I only got to play against UR Control (win 2-0). Game 1, he flooded on Dynavolt Towers, and probably didn't had enough spells to trigger them. Even then, I wasn't sweating. Spirit and Avacyn both made certain his removals were useless. Game 2 (I did side out a land), he had 2 Thing in the Ice, and I removed none before they flipped, on two different turns. He attacked on the first flip for 7, and again next turn for 14. But I blocked one with Avacyn and was down to 6, him at 14. I followed then with 2 Lieutenants and 1 Spirit, and attacked for 4 with Vigilance (down to 10). Board presence meant that he could no longer safely attack with his two 7/8 horrors. During his turn, I sacrificed Spirit. Avacyn flipped on my turn, wiping my board and dealing 3 damage to opponent (down to 7). Avacyn then attacked for 6 (down to 1), and I burned the rest with Collective Defiance. Opponent was certain to win with two flipped Things. But Avacyn's ambush ability is so good, and flipping + attacking for a total of 9 damage in a single turn is too much for many matchups.
I intend to explore that new list with Key to the City and Fiery Temper...
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
2 Hanweir Battlements
1 Aether Hub
1 Stone Quarry
4 Needle Spires
4 Inspiring Vantage
6 Plains
6 Mountain
Humans Creatures (15)
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Hanweir Garrison
3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
3 Selfless Spirit
3 Archangel Avacyn
Support Spells (7)
4 Smuggler's Copter
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Key to the City
Burn/Removal spells (8)
3 Fiery Temper
3 Collective Defiance
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Nahiri, the Harbringer
3 Hanweir Militia Captain
2 Incendiary Flow
1 Key to the City
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Pia Nalaar
2 Fragmentize
3 Lantern Scout
1 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.
2-0 vs Bant Midrange : He was getting wider at some point with tons à Loam Dryad, Thraben Inspectors and Reflector Mage. But I stabilized with fat Lieutenants, and when Avacyn joined the battle, opponent just conceded (he probably realized she would flip quickly without killing all my Humans).
1-2 vs Rakdos Amalgams : First defeat on XMage with this deck. Hard to respond to their threat. I beleive Repel the Abominable may be an appropriate SB card in this matchup.
1st, GP Toronto Sunday Super Series 2016 : Ally Company RWBG
Top 8, PPTQ Shadows over Innistrad : Boros Humans WR.
Use a hypergeometric calculator for your deckbuilding maths,
and use TopDecked to manage your decks and collection on your Apple or Android device.