I understand how curve works, and I understand what your saying - and I'm telling you that in my play tests the card rarely made a difference because of all the other removal I play that is perfectly on curve.
If it works for you - awesome. I'm presenting a slightly different list that is catered to my flavor, retains a good mana base, and plays on curve. Nowhere did I say I didn't understand the reasoning for playing the card, I simply said that it has not been spectacular to me.
That is your removal that cost 3 or less from the last list you posted... It likely has not been spectacular because the rest of your list is probably inadequate in general. You must not be playing against any Hangarback Walker + Dromoka's Command decks.
I know I am coming off as super abrasive, but there is some sort of fundamental disconnect going on with the idea that Ruinous Path is worse than Utter End. That was evident the moment people started saying they were running a 4CC card over a 3CC card.
Do you have an updated list? I'm still trying to figure out my maindeck numbers. Also, isn't Reality Shift really good in this meta that's going to filled with Hangarback Walkers?
I would probably stay away from Reality Shift for the time being. The reason I pointed out Foul-Tongue Invocation and Stasis Snare is that you cannot be exiling creatures and getting it blown up with Dromoka's Command. I guess this works if you plan on using Snare strictly for Hangarbacks in that match, but I think people are not being real with themselves if that is how they expect it to really play out. Sometimes you are just going to have to use it on something else. FTI is all fine and dandy, but you are then playing at sorcery speed to nip a Hangarback Walker in the bud while you can - and at that point Ruinous Path is just better in providing you overall consistency against an array of possible scenarios.
Swift Reckoning has been pretty good with keeping Hangarback in check. They may get a couple of tokens out of it, but the tokens are not something you are wanting to trade 1 for 1 on, and they come out around the time you are already looking to cast Languish or Crux of Fate as it already is. You can reliably deal with Hangarback Walker without having to run a card that can have volatile results like Stasis Snare or Foul-Tongue Invocation as your primary early game removal. I think FTI is a great removal spell, and should be in lists. Snare is decent, but playing it in the board is likely correct since you can hedge your bets with it and avoid putting your eggs in a single basket in a pinch.
My list has not really changed at all. I think Horribly Awry could just be Transgress the Mind, but I am not too terribly worried about nabbing things with Transgress the Mind at the moment. Those two card and their counts are probably the only thing I am examining still.
Why are you only running 3 Dig Through Time? Don't get me wrong, I'm completely on board with zero Anticipate, but it seems like having the full set of Dig Through Time is necessary when you have so little card advantage.
How about some more love for Complete Disregard? I initially underrated it, but I've been trying two in the sideboard, and it has been pulling its weight. It's a premium answer to Raptors and Hangarbacks, and while it is a bit overcosted for how narrow it is, the instant speed coupled with the lower speed of the format is very attractive.
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How about some more love for Complete Disregard? I initially underrated it, but I've been trying two in the sideboard, and it has been pulling its weight. It's a premium answer to Raptors and Hangarbacks, and while it is a bit overcosted for how narrow it is, the instant speed coupled with the lower speed of the format is very attractive.
I'll have to try it out, definitely a good idea in those cases. I suppose a little extra walker/raptor hate never killed anyone eh?
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Standard
Meh
Modern BUWEsper ControlWUB BRUGrixis DelverURB WRBGKiki ChordGBRW WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW BRGJundGRB
I understand how curve works, and I understand what your saying - and I'm telling you that in my play tests the card rarely made a difference because of all the other removal I play that is perfectly on curve.
If it works for you - awesome. I'm presenting a slightly different list that is catered to my flavor, retains a good mana base, and plays on curve. Nowhere did I say I didn't understand the reasoning for playing the card, I simply said that it has not been spectacular to me.
That is your removal that cost 3 or less from the last list you posted... It likely has not been spectacular because the rest of your list is probably inadequate in general. You must not be playing against any Hangarback Walker + Dromoka's Command decks.
I know I am coming off as super abrasive, but there is some sort of fundamental disconnect going on with the idea that Ruinous Path is worse than Utter End. That was evident the moment people started saying they were running a 4CC card over a 3CC card.
Do you have an updated list? I'm still trying to figure out my maindeck numbers. Also, isn't Reality Shift really good in this meta that's going to filled with Hangarback Walkers?
I would probably stay away from Reality Shift for the time being. The reason I pointed out Foul-Tongue Invocation and Stasis Snare is that you cannot be exiling creatures and getting it blown up with Dromoka's Command. I guess this works if you plan on using Snare strictly for Hangarbacks in that match, but I think people are not being real with themselves if that is how they expect it to really play out. Sometimes you are just going to have to use it on something else. FTI is all fine and dandy, but you are then playing at sorcery speed to nip a Hangarback Walker in the bud while you can - and at that point Ruinous Path is just better in providing you overall consistency against an array of possible scenarios.
Swift Reckoning has been pretty good with keeping Hangarback in check. They may get a couple of tokens out of it, but the tokens are not something you are wanting to trade 1 for 1 on, and they come out around the time you are already looking to cast Languish or Crux of Fate as it already is. You can reliably deal with Hangarback Walker without having to run a card that can have volatile results like Stasis Snare or Foul-Tongue Invocation as your primary early game removal. I think FTI is a great removal spell, and should be in lists. Snare is decent, but playing it in the board is likely correct since you can hedge your bets with it and avoid putting your eggs in a single basket in a pinch.
My list has not really changed at all. I think Horribly Awry could just be Transgress the Mind, but I am not too terribly worried about nabbing things with Transgress the Mind at the moment. Those two card and their counts are probably the only thing I am examining still.
Why are you only running 3 Dig Through Time? Don't get me wrong, I'm completely on board with zero Anticipate, but it seems like having the full set of Dig Through Time is necessary when you have so little card advantage.
Why are you only running 3 Dig Through Time? Don't get me wrong, I'm completely on board with zero Anticipate, but it seems like having the full set of Dig Through Time is necessary when you have so little card advantage.
In his list of course ojutai is your ever hopeful CA engine, as well as the obvious three dig through times.
The other forms of CA are the pseudo CA you get from casting planeswalkers, as his are both very good at being auto 2-for-1's.
Narset hits, rebounds a spell them gets killed. 2-for-1. And more if you rebound dig.
Nixilis hits, kills a creatures, eats a removal spell. Auto 2-for-1
Thats the kind of CA this deck likes, easy 2-for-1's.
Edit: it should be noted esper in standard is more focused on grindy ca rather than pure ca/filtering like UW would want with something like anticipate. Anticipate is a spell that is generally not necessary in the deck.
In his list of course ojutai is your ever hopeful CA engine, as well as the obvious three dig through times.
The other forms of CA are the pseudo CA you get from casting planeswalkers, as his are both very good at being auto 2-for-1's.
Narset hits, rebounds a spell them gets killed. 2-for-1. And more if you rebound dig.
Nixilis hits, kills a creatures, eats a removal spell. Auto 2-for-1
Thats the kind of CA this deck likes, easy 2-for-1's.
Edit: it should be noted esper in standard is more focused on grindy ca rather than pure ca/filtering like UW would want with something like anticipate. Anticipate is a spell that is generally not necessary in the deck.
Yes, of course. Like I said before, I'm 100% on board with not playing Anticipate.
I was just a little surprised about his assertive and condescending answer about how the deck has "a ton of card advantage". The only spells in the deck that truly generate card advantage are Ob Nixilis, Ojutai, and Dig Through Time. It can be argued that the awaken spells generate advantage, but it's not that much of an advantage.
There's also Crux of Fate and Languish that generate card advantage, I suppose.
Besides those cards, the deck is a bunch of 1 for 1s which is fine.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that I am wondering if there is a specific reason not to play the 4th Dig Through Time. It's such a powerful card, so I find it hard to believe that it's not correct to play all four. I'll personally play all four unless there is a good, specific reason not to.
In his list of course ojutai is your ever hopeful CA engine, as well as the obvious three dig through times.
The other forms of CA are the pseudo CA you get from casting planeswalkers, as his are both very good at being auto 2-for-1's.
Narset hits, rebounds a spell them gets killed. 2-for-1. And more if you rebound dig.
Nixilis hits, kills a creatures, eats a removal spell. Auto 2-for-1
Thats the kind of CA this deck likes, easy 2-for-1's.
Edit: it should be noted esper in standard is more focused on grindy ca rather than pure ca/filtering like UW would want with something like anticipate. Anticipate is a spell that is generally not necessary in the deck.
Yes, of course. Like I said before, I'm 100% on board with not playing Anticipate.
I was just a little surprised about his assertive and condescending answer about how the deck has "a ton of card advantage". The only spells in the deck that truly generate card advantage are Ob Nixilis, Ojutai, and Dig Through Time. It can be argued that the awaken spells generate advantage, but it's not that much of an advantage.
There's also Crux of Fate and Languish that generate card advantage, I suppose.
Besides those cards, the deck is a bunch of 1 for 1s which is fine.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that I am wondering if there is a specific reason not to play the 4th Dig Through Time. It's such a powerful card, so I find it hard to believe that it's not correct to play all four. I'll personally play all four unless there is a good, specific reason not to.
While the card is good, 3 count means hedging. As I said, I am running 3 for the exact same reason I am running 0 Anticipate - which is summarized as follows
With 4 Dig, 4 Anticipate and 5 Dragons:
Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 2) where X is the number of the above listed cards is sitting at 47.5% for an opening hand of 7 cards.
With 4 Dig, and 5 Dragons:
Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 2) where X is the above listed cards is sitting at 23.1% for an opening hand of 7 cards.
If you think about it, opening with 2 Dig, or 2 Dragons, or a Dig and a Dragon is really almost a virtual mulligan to 5 cards against RDW is it not? Those are generally difficult cards to cast in that match because they require the game to go fairly long.
The reason I included Anticipate on this list is because assuming you are on 4 lands in hand/play by turn 2: Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 3) where X is a Dissolve, Dragon, Dig, Scorn, Anticipate, Land is sitting at 47.4% on a turn 2 Anticipate on the draw and 44.7% on the play.
That is a brick nearly half of the time if you already started with 2 of any combination of Dragon, Anticipate, Dig in your opening hand on any aggressive start against RDW compared to 34.2% and 32.3% respectively – if you are on 5 dragons and 0 Anticipate.
While those notes are for 4 DTT and a THS-KTK meta, the fundamental reasoning is still applicable in terms of why or why not to hedge on various cards. Building with Aggro decks in mind is more than just examining your removal suite.
Does anyone have any thoughts on the 4 colour control list I posted a few pages back? Is adding red for draconic roars and radiant flames help our matchup vs rdw worth it?
In his list of course ojutai is your ever hopeful CA engine, as well as the obvious three dig through times.
The other forms of CA are the pseudo CA you get from casting planeswalkers, as his are both very good at being auto 2-for-1's.
Narset hits, rebounds a spell them gets killed. 2-for-1. And more if you rebound dig.
Nixilis hits, kills a creatures, eats a removal spell. Auto 2-for-1
Thats the kind of CA this deck likes, easy 2-for-1's.
Edit: it should be noted esper in standard is more focused on grindy ca rather than pure ca/filtering like UW would want with something like anticipate. Anticipate is a spell that is generally not necessary in the deck.
Yes, of course. Like I said before, I'm 100% on board with not playing Anticipate.
I was just a little surprised about his assertive and condescending answer about how the deck has "a ton of card advantage". The only spells in the deck that truly generate card advantage are Ob Nixilis, Ojutai, and Dig Through Time. It can be argued that the awaken spells generate advantage, but it's not that much of an advantage.
There's also Crux of Fate and Languish that generate card advantage, I suppose.
Besides those cards, the deck is a bunch of 1 for 1s which is fine.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that I am wondering if there is a specific reason not to play the 4th Dig Through Time. It's such a powerful card, so I find it hard to believe that it's not correct to play all four. I'll personally play all four unless there is a good, specific reason not to.
The card is ridiculously powerful. My answer was short, it was not intended to come off as condescending. I have given information on this numerous times and given the few number of threads about Esper Dragons, it would not take much digging to see it. In fact if you did any reading of the thread in the New Card Discussion forum it was on the second page.
If I sounded irritable, it is because I was. Not necessarily with you, but simply with the discussion. We do a lot of SCD for a bit then move onto a new one, but little in the way of relating to actual strategy. Card counts really are the last thing people should really worry about as card quality and context is generally more critical.
Read below if you are interested in a bit more about Dig Through Time.
Does anyone have any thoughts on the 4 colour control list I posted a few pages back? Is adding red for draconic roars and radiant flames help our matchup vs rdw worth it?
Thanks in advance.
None. Likely why you did not get a response. Fetches and fetchable dual lands still do not make me feel comfortable about splashing for more Dragon cards - especially for removal that is as restricted as Draconic Roar and as unnecessary as Radiant Flames. The problem with these cards is that they are not better than what you could just play in Esper. If early removal is in such dire straits that you need to run a 4th color and something as restricted as Draconic Roar, just play Gideon's Reproach... which is better at killing creatures. I really could care less about the damage to the face. Really.
Radiant Flames is great, but I am not worried about that many hyper aggressive strategies that I cannot stall into a Languish just as effectively.
Yeah, im on board with 3 digs too.
If you have a bunch of cheap spells, dig gets better. Uw style cheap spells and counters, and then dig for 2 spells for cheap and keep going.
But if you add more dragons and pw and gemerally powerful cards already, then 3 digs is fine, you already have a bunch of expensive stuff to cast, dig is going to be more expensive, etc. And most of the time youd rather just cast a big spell like an ob nixilis, instead of digging for one and castingnit next turn.
I will likely jump back up to 4 Dig Through Time at some point. I never really thought it was legitimate to cut Dig Through Time down to three until I started looking at numbers - and the numbers are a bit out dated. Three is just fine though. I want to avoid seeing it in my opener most of the time, at least for now. As you said, there just are not enough ways to quickly fill the yard without Bile Blight, Thoughtseize and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy for it to be as fantastic as it can be and a lot of the other built in VCA are in things like planeswalkers and Awakening that are kind of expensive.
So I've been playtesting with various lists on cockatrice for about a week now and figured I'd post some thoughts.
I started out on a 4 color (not green) dragons list that was mostly esper splash red for radiant flames and draconic roar, this list was the worst to me, lots of inconsistent draws and had too much 'drew the wrong side of my deck' issues.
After that failure I brewed for a few days on a straight esper dragon's list which I'll post below. It's still a work in progress.
Note, this list is a few days old at this point, so it doesn't have some of the more recent changes that the third list I'm going to post has, most notably, the 27th land which I really think is the correct number. it should be a 3rd Haven.
As for the deck itself, the creature package is pretty standard as are the spells. I wouldn't mind going to 3 dig especially because that's usually the first card I like to pitch to Jace for recasting later.
Horribly Awry is the best counter we've got and Foul-Tongue Invocation is the best spell we've got. Sometimes just casting it for lifegain is the right way to go.
Ojutai's Command isn't a counterspell, it's a sphinx's rev for 1 that gives extra life and that HAPPENS to sometimes sac a mode to counter a creature or bring a Jace back. I've won games off of eot Ojutai's life/draw mainphase flash back with jace, 8 life and 2 cards is pretty backbreaking.
Silumgar's Command is the ***** and the urine. I'd run more (maybe sb?) but the 5 cmc limits the spell. Every mode has use, often we end up bouncing a land for the tempo play, it has 3 of it's modes handles walkers, 'bounce your Hangerback kill your other buy' causes scoops. I really really like this card. I got a guy to ragequit the otherday who was stuck on 3 with 2 tangos, he plays a buy, I EOT kill the boy and bounce a tango.
Anyway other cards include Swift Reckoning, Ruinous Path, Reave Soul and Utter End. I like a mix, I always like a mix, but especially when each card has a very real drawback. Nothing is worse than staring down a guy with vigi or a manland with a handful of SR/ Ruinous Path, or a walker with SR, or fast guys with UE, etc etc. They all have uses, personally I don't like more than 2 SR main just because it's destroy (no gideon), and I think Utter End and Ruinous Path could both bump to a 2 of. Btw Reave Soul can never kill a manland on their turn, which really limits the card for me.
Sideboard
It's kind of a mess at the moment as I'm still shuffling numbers around but the main idea should be pretty clear.
Oblivion Sower is pretty legit vs decks that delve away lands (control) or where you might want another huge body with some incidental ramp)
A mix of counterspells for various situations, I've been liking Spell Shrivel more and more because of the single blue pip and the exile clause. Another Utter End for the Gideon decks. More wipes and small kill spells for fast decks. I will note after playing some mirror and U/W matchups that Planar OutBurst is is not only a bit stronger vs the field, but it's also stronger vs us than our Crux/languish are vs them. A consideration in a more W heavy list.
I'm going to make a second post for the other list that I've been working on recently as this one is getting long.
Last night a buddy of mine and I were sitting around discussing decks when the idea to jam the 8 rhino package into an existing shell came up. Originally it was a joke, but after a few rounds of testing it became apparent that not only could the mana support it, it was fairly strong. Turns out controling the board until mid game as a normal esper shell and then dumping rhinos onto the table as your wincon is pretty strong.
The original iteration dropped the dragon package for a walker package (2 gideon, 2 ob, 1 narset). It lacked closing power as our Bring to Lights didn't get our walkers, so the newer version is actually 5 color so that you can BtL your Ojutai's.
People have talked about tapout control a bit on here, but this is that list you guys. This is only on day 1 of testing, so the mainboard spells are a bit of mess, but having the ability to cast any creature or spell in our deck on turn 5 is really really something to consider giving a try. It gets our boardwipes, our targeted removal, all of our boys, everything but a counter or a walker, but that's ok, it's still incredibly strong.
I have a feeling with a bit more testing this list is going to be the one I end up playing in paper for the upcoming weeks. The biggest consideration right now is what 5 or less CMC spells can we be running to really push this over the top? Right now it has no BtLable draw. Maybe just an Ugin's Insight? Scry 0-5 draw 3 isn't terrible.
Re: card advantage and Dig Through Time
I just want to point out that there are two different styles of card advantage, and what exactly you're trying to do may cause you to want one over the other. There's the traditional card advantage of drawing extra cards, like DTT, selection through cantrips like Anticipate, etc. Then there are the cards that get you advantage by taking away more than one card from the opponent. I think this deck very much prefers the second type. You would rather have 2 cards and your opponent have 0 than have 7 cards and your opponent has 2 or 3, so something like Ob Nixilis that takes away their creature and their removal spell often performs better than something that would kill a creature and draw a card. It's typically the more permission-style control decks (which aren't often viable in Standard) that want pure card draw because they tend to have a lot more cards that don't do much on their own.
Re: card advantage and Dig Through Time
I just want to point out that there are two different styles of card advantage, and what exactly you're trying to do may cause you to want one over the other. There's the traditional card advantage of drawing extra cards, like DTT, selection through cantrips like Anticipate, etc. Then there are the cards that get you advantage by taking away more than one card from the opponent. I think this deck very much prefers the second type. You would rather have 2 cards and your opponent have 0 than have 7 cards and your opponent has 2 or 3, so something like Ob Nixilis that takes away their creature and their removal spell often performs better than something that would kill a creature and draw a card. It's typically the more permission-style control decks (which aren't often viable in Standard) that want pure card draw because they tend to have a lot more cards that don't do much on their own.
That was what I was trying to get through on the lack of DTT - DTT is a good spell, and I run four in my list because it is strong, but running three is not insane or silly, because again, that's not necessarily always the CA that esper is looking for. As I pointed out in my last reply about CA, easy 2-for-1's are very attractive to this style of control. Something like Narset that can enable an easy 3-for-2 or x-for-2 or even if she last on the field, x-for-1, is a great thing to have. I had been messing with the possibility of playing with Narset over my two Sorins, or replacing the Ugin/a Sorin with narset, or just going 1/1/1 with one of each, and seeing OP maindecking one gives that line a bit more confidence from me, so I may try it out. In any case - Planeswalkers are a solid inclusion to many control decks, and I feel that Esper colors have some of the strongest walkers in the meta at the moment.
As for the Ugin's Insight comment - I think this card has potential, and it's something that I have been looking at as a replacement for Dig, as it is a Dig-like effect... however. If you control no permanents with a CMC when it resolves... well then it's sorcery speed Jace's Ingenuity. I feel like that's the big downside. It makes killing our things in response look a lot more attractive, and would make us look pretty stupid for playing the card. I don't care for it personally, but then DTT still has a little bit of mileage on it, so we'll see how things change up moving forward.
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Standard
Meh
Modern BUWEsper ControlWUB BRUGrixis DelverURB WRBGKiki ChordGBRW WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW BRGJundGRB
As I stated, I may move back up to 4 DTT at some point. But it is not now, not until I know I can have that extra 8 mana spell in my opening a little more often. I would stray from Ugin's Insight. I may play a good number of sorcery spells, but 5 mana sorcery to draw is not going to be the kind of value I want to tap out for. I prefer to play my sorcery spells when I know they are generating a position that can be used as leverage, and cards in hand does nor really facilitate that strategy when you just tapped 5 mana for it. Strong effect, over priced premium.
If you really want some additional draw, and you are wanting to stick with more instant and sorcery type cards and only tapping out for walkers - Day's Undoing seems fine. In slow matches, it can do wonders at shaping a reshaping a hand in the late game - when you have mana to sweep, cast, hold mana up. But that card is a bit sketch for an option as well. I would still rather play that before I play Ugin's Insight since you can still have a cohesive strategy behind it.
I'm repeating myself here, but I feel the need to plug Utter End again. I've been testing my own list daily since the full set was spoiled, and Utter End is probably the best removal spell at my disposal. The format is slow enough that I'm not often punished for running a 4-mana answer, it answers an extremely diverse list of threats, and Exile seems incredibly relevant right now. A creature-removal spell that also answers Ascendency, Tutelage, Sieges, Planeswalkers, and From Beyond is nuts. And I'm almost entirely immune to Hangarback Walker and Deathmist Raptor shenanigans while I run it.
I'm currently at three in the main, which I think is correct. Four would probably be too greedy, since it IS an expensive spell. But it wins me games I would have otherwise lost, and with the exception of specifically turn 3, I always am happier to draw it than I am Ruinous Path.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if it sees a price hike once the metagame evens out. I'm picking them up cheap now.
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I'm in full testing mode after reading all the comments here - I want to make sure my removal suite is relevant, and the best it can possibly be. I'm working with two ends in the board at the moment, but if main deck is where they're needed more, that's not a hard thing to do.
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Standard
Meh
Modern BUWEsper ControlWUB BRUGrixis DelverURB WRBGKiki ChordGBRW WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW BRGJundGRB
I'm currently at three in the main, which I think is correct. Four would probably be too greedy, since it IS an expensive spell. But it wins me games I would have otherwise lost, and with the exception of specifically turn 3, I always am happier to draw it than I am Ruinous Path.
I'm on 3 Utter End in the main too for the same reason. I'm also on the Stasis Snare plan for week 1, and I've been pleasantly surprised with it. I've had it hit with Dromoka's Command a few times, but it never felt like a complete blowout.
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Why are you only running 3 Dig Through Time? Don't get me wrong, I'm completely on board with zero Anticipate, but it seems like having the full set of Dig Through Time is necessary when you have so little card advantage.
Modern: UW Spirits
Seems unnecessary when there are already 4 Swift Reckoning in the main.
I'll have to try it out, definitely a good idea in those cases. I suppose a little extra walker/raptor hate never killed anyone eh?
Meh
Modern
BUWEsper ControlWUB
BRUGrixis DelverURB
WRBGKiki ChordGBRW
WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW
BRGJundGRB
Legacy
UBRGrixis DelverRBU
Commander
Also meh
For the very reason I run 0 Anticipate.
This deck also has a ton of card advantage...
I tested it. It was okay, but Swift Reckoning is better against everything except Mantis Rider, usually.
Like what?
The other forms of CA are the pseudo CA you get from casting planeswalkers, as his are both very good at being auto 2-for-1's.
Narset hits, rebounds a spell them gets killed. 2-for-1. And more if you rebound dig.
Nixilis hits, kills a creatures, eats a removal spell. Auto 2-for-1
Thats the kind of CA this deck likes, easy 2-for-1's.
Edit: it should be noted esper in standard is more focused on grindy ca rather than pure ca/filtering like UW would want with something like anticipate. Anticipate is a spell that is generally not necessary in the deck.
Meh
Modern
BUWEsper ControlWUB
BRUGrixis DelverURB
WRBGKiki ChordGBRW
WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW
BRGJundGRB
Legacy
UBRGrixis DelverRBU
Commander
Also meh
Yes, of course. Like I said before, I'm 100% on board with not playing Anticipate.
I was just a little surprised about his assertive and condescending answer about how the deck has "a ton of card advantage". The only spells in the deck that truly generate card advantage are Ob Nixilis, Ojutai, and Dig Through Time. It can be argued that the awaken spells generate advantage, but it's not that much of an advantage.
There's also Crux of Fate and Languish that generate card advantage, I suppose.
Besides those cards, the deck is a bunch of 1 for 1s which is fine.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that I am wondering if there is a specific reason not to play the 4th Dig Through Time. It's such a powerful card, so I find it hard to believe that it's not correct to play all four. I'll personally play all four unless there is a good, specific reason not to.
Standard - Some kind of control
Modern - UB Mill (casual)
EDH - Meren's Grave Shenanigans
While the card is good, 3 count means hedging. As I said, I am running 3 for the exact same reason I am running 0 Anticipate - which is summarized as follows
Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 2) where X is the number of the above listed cards is sitting at 47.5% for an opening hand of 7 cards.
With 4 Dig, and 5 Dragons:
Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 2) where X is the above listed cards is sitting at 23.1% for an opening hand of 7 cards.
If you think about it, opening with 2 Dig, or 2 Dragons, or a Dig and a Dragon is really almost a virtual mulligan to 5 cards against RDW is it not? Those are generally difficult cards to cast in that match because they require the game to go fairly long.
The reason I included Anticipate on this list is because assuming you are on 4 lands in hand/play by turn 2: Cumulative Probability: P(X > or = 3) where X is a Dissolve, Dragon, Dig, Scorn, Anticipate, Land is sitting at 47.4% on a turn 2 Anticipate on the draw and 44.7% on the play.
That is a brick nearly half of the time if you already started with 2 of any combination of Dragon, Anticipate, Dig in your opening hand on any aggressive start against RDW compared to 34.2% and 32.3% respectively – if you are on 5 dragons and 0 Anticipate.
While those notes are for 4 DTT and a THS-KTK meta, the fundamental reasoning is still applicable in terms of why or why not to hedge on various cards. Building with Aggro decks in mind is more than just examining your removal suite.
Thanks in advance.
I seems a bit low on ways to deal with PWs? What about -1 radiant -1 scatter - 1 soulfire, +2 ruinous path+ 1 Utter End?
The dream of soft locking with Soulfire + Kolaghan's command is nice =)
Cheers
The card is ridiculously powerful. My answer was short, it was not intended to come off as condescending. I have given information on this numerous times and given the few number of threads about Esper Dragons, it would not take much digging to see it. In fact if you did any reading of the thread in the New Card Discussion forum it was on the second page.
If I sounded irritable, it is because I was. Not necessarily with you, but simply with the discussion. We do a lot of SCD for a bit then move onto a new one, but little in the way of relating to actual strategy. Card counts really are the last thing people should really worry about as card quality and context is generally more critical.
Read below if you are interested in a bit more about Dig Through Time.
None. Likely why you did not get a response. Fetches and fetchable dual lands still do not make me feel comfortable about splashing for more Dragon cards - especially for removal that is as restricted as Draconic Roar and as unnecessary as Radiant Flames. The problem with these cards is that they are not better than what you could just play in Esper. If early removal is in such dire straits that you need to run a 4th color and something as restricted as Draconic Roar, just play Gideon's Reproach... which is better at killing creatures. I really could care less about the damage to the face. Really.
Radiant Flames is great, but I am not worried about that many hyper aggressive strategies that I cannot stall into a Languish just as effectively.
I will likely jump back up to 4 Dig Through Time at some point. I never really thought it was legitimate to cut Dig Through Time down to three until I started looking at numbers - and the numbers are a bit out dated. Three is just fine though. I want to avoid seeing it in my opener most of the time, at least for now. As you said, there just are not enough ways to quickly fill the yard without Bile Blight, Thoughtseize and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy for it to be as fantastic as it can be and a lot of the other built in VCA are in things like planeswalkers and Awakening that are kind of expensive.
I started out on a 4 color (not green) dragons list that was mostly esper splash red for radiant flames and draconic roar, this list was the worst to me, lots of inconsistent draws and had too much 'drew the wrong side of my deck' issues.
After that failure I brewed for a few days on a straight esper dragon's list which I'll post below. It's still a work in progress.
3 Dragonlord Ojutai
1 Dragonlord Silumgar
3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Silumgar, the Drifting Death
Spells
2 Dig Through Time
1 Dragonlord's Prerogative
2 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Horribly Awry
2 Ojutai's Command
2 Silumgar's Scorn
2 Spell Shrivel
1 Utter End
2 Crux of Fate
2 Languish
2 Reave Soul
1 Ruinous Path
2 Swift Reckoning
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Ob Nixilis Reignited
Lands
4 Flooded Strand
2 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
2 Island
1 Plains
4 Polluted Delta
4 Prairie Stream
4 Shambling Vent
4 Sunken Hollow
1 Swamp
1 Oblivion Sower
1 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Horribly Awry
2 Negate
1 Scatter to the Winds
1 Utter End
1 Ob Nixilis Reignited
2 Languish
1 Planar Outburst
1 Reave Soul
2 Swift Reckoning
Note, this list is a few days old at this point, so it doesn't have some of the more recent changes that the third list I'm going to post has, most notably, the 27th land which I really think is the correct number. it should be a 3rd Haven.
As for the deck itself, the creature package is pretty standard as are the spells. I wouldn't mind going to 3 dig especially because that's usually the first card I like to pitch to Jace for recasting later.
Horribly Awry is the best counter we've got and Foul-Tongue Invocation is the best spell we've got. Sometimes just casting it for lifegain is the right way to go.
Ojutai's Command isn't a counterspell, it's a sphinx's rev for 1 that gives extra life and that HAPPENS to sometimes sac a mode to counter a creature or bring a Jace back. I've won games off of eot Ojutai's life/draw mainphase flash back with jace, 8 life and 2 cards is pretty backbreaking.
Silumgar's Command is the ***** and the urine. I'd run more (maybe sb?) but the 5 cmc limits the spell. Every mode has use, often we end up bouncing a land for the tempo play, it has 3 of it's modes handles walkers, 'bounce your Hangerback kill your other buy' causes scoops. I really really like this card. I got a guy to ragequit the otherday who was stuck on 3 with 2 tangos, he plays a buy, I EOT kill the boy and bounce a tango.
Anyway other cards include Swift Reckoning, Ruinous Path, Reave Soul and Utter End. I like a mix, I always like a mix, but especially when each card has a very real drawback. Nothing is worse than staring down a guy with vigi or a manland with a handful of SR/ Ruinous Path, or a walker with SR, or fast guys with UE, etc etc. They all have uses, personally I don't like more than 2 SR main just because it's destroy (no gideon), and I think Utter End and Ruinous Path could both bump to a 2 of. Btw Reave Soul can never kill a manland on their turn, which really limits the card for me.
Sideboard
It's kind of a mess at the moment as I'm still shuffling numbers around but the main idea should be pretty clear.
Oblivion Sower is pretty legit vs decks that delve away lands (control) or where you might want another huge body with some incidental ramp)
A mix of counterspells for various situations, I've been liking Spell Shrivel more and more because of the single blue pip and the exile clause. Another Utter End for the Gideon decks. More wipes and small kill spells for fast decks. I will note after playing some mirror and U/W matchups that Planar OutBurst is is not only a bit stronger vs the field, but it's also stronger vs us than our Crux/languish are vs them. A consideration in a more W heavy list.
I'm going to make a second post for the other list that I've been working on recently as this one is getting long.
The original iteration dropped the dragon package for a walker package (2 gideon, 2 ob, 1 narset). It lacked closing power as our Bring to Lights didn't get our walkers, so the newer version is actually 5 color so that you can BtL your Ojutai's.
3 Jace, Vyrn's Prodigy
4 Siege Rhino
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Canopy Vista
1 Cinder Glade
3 Flooded Strand
2 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
1 Island
2 Lumbering Falls
1 Plains
4 Polluted Delta
3 Prairie Stream
2 Shambling Vent
1 Smoldering Marsh
3 Sunken Hollow
1 Swamp
1 Wooded Foothills
4 Bring to Light
2 Crux of Fate
2 Languish
1 Ruinous Path
1 Swift Reckoning
3 Dig Through Time
2 Foul-Tongue Invocation
1 Horribly Awry
2 Ojutai's Command
1 Silumgar's Command
2 Silumgar's Scorn
2 SPell Shrivel
1 Utter End
1 Oblivion Sower
1 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Horribly Awry
2 Negate
1 Scatter to the Winds
1 Utter End
2 Gideon, ally of Zendikar
1 Ob Nixilis Reignited
2 Languish
2 Reave Soul
People have talked about tapout control a bit on here, but this is that list you guys. This is only on day 1 of testing, so the mainboard spells are a bit of mess, but having the ability to cast any creature or spell in our deck on turn 5 is really really something to consider giving a try. It gets our boardwipes, our targeted removal, all of our boys, everything but a counter or a walker, but that's ok, it's still incredibly strong.
I have a feeling with a bit more testing this list is going to be the one I end up playing in paper for the upcoming weeks. The biggest consideration right now is what 5 or less CMC spells can we be running to really push this over the top? Right now it has no BtLable draw. Maybe just an Ugin's Insight? Scry 0-5 draw 3 isn't terrible.
Thoughts?
I just want to point out that there are two different styles of card advantage, and what exactly you're trying to do may cause you to want one over the other. There's the traditional card advantage of drawing extra cards, like DTT, selection through cantrips like Anticipate, etc. Then there are the cards that get you advantage by taking away more than one card from the opponent. I think this deck very much prefers the second type. You would rather have 2 cards and your opponent have 0 than have 7 cards and your opponent has 2 or 3, so something like Ob Nixilis that takes away their creature and their removal spell often performs better than something that would kill a creature and draw a card. It's typically the more permission-style control decks (which aren't often viable in Standard) that want pure card draw because they tend to have a lot more cards that don't do much on their own.
That was what I was trying to get through on the lack of DTT - DTT is a good spell, and I run four in my list because it is strong, but running three is not insane or silly, because again, that's not necessarily always the CA that esper is looking for. As I pointed out in my last reply about CA, easy 2-for-1's are very attractive to this style of control. Something like Narset that can enable an easy 3-for-2 or x-for-2 or even if she last on the field, x-for-1, is a great thing to have. I had been messing with the possibility of playing with Narset over my two Sorins, or replacing the Ugin/a Sorin with narset, or just going 1/1/1 with one of each, and seeing OP maindecking one gives that line a bit more confidence from me, so I may try it out. In any case - Planeswalkers are a solid inclusion to many control decks, and I feel that Esper colors have some of the strongest walkers in the meta at the moment.
As for the Ugin's Insight comment - I think this card has potential, and it's something that I have been looking at as a replacement for Dig, as it is a Dig-like effect... however. If you control no permanents with a CMC when it resolves... well then it's sorcery speed Jace's Ingenuity. I feel like that's the big downside. It makes killing our things in response look a lot more attractive, and would make us look pretty stupid for playing the card. I don't care for it personally, but then DTT still has a little bit of mileage on it, so we'll see how things change up moving forward.
Meh
Modern
BUWEsper ControlWUB
BRUGrixis DelverURB
WRBGKiki ChordGBRW
WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW
BRGJundGRB
Legacy
UBRGrixis DelverRBU
Commander
Also meh
If you really want some additional draw, and you are wanting to stick with more instant and sorcery type cards and only tapping out for walkers - Day's Undoing seems fine. In slow matches, it can do wonders at shaping a reshaping a hand in the late game - when you have mana to sweep, cast, hold mana up. But that card is a bit sketch for an option as well. I would still rather play that before I play Ugin's Insight since you can still have a cohesive strategy behind it.
I'm currently at three in the main, which I think is correct. Four would probably be too greedy, since it IS an expensive spell. But it wins me games I would have otherwise lost, and with the exception of specifically turn 3, I always am happier to draw it than I am Ruinous Path.
I actually wouldn't be surprised if it sees a price hike once the metagame evens out. I'm picking them up cheap now.
Meh
Modern
BUWEsper ControlWUB
BRUGrixis DelverURB
WRBGKiki ChordGBRW
WBGAbzan MidrangeGBW
BRGJundGRB
Legacy
UBRGrixis DelverRBU
Commander
Also meh
Gerardo Fabiano Esper Dragons
Shaheen Soorani Esper SuperFiends
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
I'm on 3 Utter End in the main too for the same reason. I'm also on the Stasis Snare plan for week 1, and I've been pleasantly surprised with it. I've had it hit with Dromoka's Command a few times, but it never felt like a complete blowout.