Is Ixalan too one-dimensional/weak to see a REAL presence in the format?
Look at Gishath, Sun’s Avatar. It's like the only dinosaur with a world-building aspect that leads to inevitability. That card is STILL weak when an Abrade combined with many other red cards (like Hazoret) can take it down before it can even do anything. Mono Red isn't supposed to be able to take down giant creatures so easily. It's like Wizards crippled dinosaurs on purpose (7/6 instead of at LEAST 7/7 for king of dinosaurs?). Most of them are garbage in basically every category. These new tribes are seriously lacking. To me, Ixalan seems more like a Command set.
Look at Starcity games' site. They have basically nothing to talk about when it comes to Standard.
One could even argue that the tribes dominating after only one set would be worse, since the second set might have made them oppressive. In the meantime, I am happily watching the price drops on Hostage Taker and Regisaur. I plan to complete my playsets before Rivals drops and I still hope to reduce them to heavily played condition over the next two years.
After the Pro Tour, the amount of data that even MTGoldfish provides with "gifted" decklists in competitive leagues. I would like to propose a ban, on Attune with Aether. Every culprit has ran this card since this entire ban hysteria has begun. From Emrakul, to Aetherworks Marvel, till now.
Mana Fixing is one issue, we have seen other formats in the past have such similar issues such as Jace, Vryn's Prodigy into Siege Rhino. Yet this format has another elephant in the room. They run multiple off color 5 & 6 drops that run only 22 lands. Now I understand many people will blame Rogue Refiner, but the biggest culprit is Attune with Aether since it allows for such manafixing and insanely aggressive starts with energy based creatures such as Longtusk Cub and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner.
Energy based decks, Temur & 4-Color were approximately 43% into a Day 2 Performance. Ramunamp Red had a decent performance with 22%, and after those top 3 decks, the percentages drop dramatically. The leading of those is Sultai Energy at 6%. Meaning of the top 4 decks, 49% had the same shell of Attune with Aether, Longtusk Cub, Rogue Refiner.
I don't want to be forced to brew with Attune with Aether or be forced to beat it for the duration of this Standard environment. Ixalan is a great set, but the problem is absolutely with design. They make so many cards every year that the synergistic mechanics will bleed into the top decks. We could have renamed this Pro Tour - Aether Revolt + Hostage Taker, Vraska and Scarab God. Because that's all that was relevant.
Wizards, do the right thing, out of all the bannings you have done, you have always avoided banning Attune with Aether. Just do it and be done with it.
WOTC would be grotesquely irresponsible to ban a Lay of the Land variant. This is the first of its kind that's been Constructed-caliber in the history of Magic.
(EDIT: You could count Traverse the Ulvenwald here and say it's the second that's been playable, but Attune is the first one that is predominantly a Lay of the Land that's playable. Traverse's playability came from it turning into an improved Worldly Tutor when your engine is online; its mana-fixing was a minor but relevant upside to your deck tuning, not the reason for inclusion, like Attune is.)
Stop with the ban hysteria. The numbers from PT Ixalan are not a problem. The PT was much later in the season than normal, after a lot of unusual strategies were already explored and found wanting, which explains the abnormally high percentage of the field. The energy decks had a high percentage of the field and performed exactly average at all data points for measuring performance, so they're not oppressive or stifling, just very prolific. The decks themselves are very fair midrange decks whose thematic creatures are slightly below-rate on their own and above-rate with a lot of energy production, that's not an issue anymore than last season's Zombies deck was or any other 'tribal' or 'synergy' deck in recent history.
The only argument that has any amount of merit is that energy's mana is too good relative to the rest of the format, but that alone is hardly banworthy. It's less degenerate than the 4c manabases of BFZ/OGW Standard and the attempts to push it into that level (like the base-Sultai version that splashes for Virtuoso/Lightning) are fraught with manabase risks, which is exactly how it ought to be.
So is it your opinion that taking up 50% of the Pro Tour isn't a little much?
Would it change your mind if it was 50% or higher on the next Pro Tour, as well?
Sure. 50% of the field registered Temur cards.
You should also look at the success rate.
Temur/4 color did not have the highest conversion rate -- they were rather far down actually.
Perception of what the best deck in the format is (people thought Temur was going into this weekend which is why we saw half the field register Temur cards) and reality are often different things.
What's the best deck in the format now? I'd be inclined to think Temur but at the same time there are powerful strategies elsewhere.
Your complaint about half the field registering Temur is rather a complaint about people and their perception of a standard metagame than actually addressing what may or may not be a problem.
So is it your opinion that taking up 50% of the Pro Tour isn't a little much?
Would it change your mind if it was 50% or higher on the next Pro Tour, as well?
Sure. 50% of the field registered Temur cards.
You should also look at the success rate.
Temur/4 color did not have the highest conversion rate -- they were rather far down actually.
Perception of what the best deck in the format is (people thought Temur was going into this weekend which is why we saw half the field register Temur cards) and reality are often different things.
What's the best deck in the format now? I'd be inclined to think Temur but at the same time there are powerful strategies elsewhere.
Your complaint about half the field registering Temur is rather a complaint about people and their perception of a standard metagame than actually addressing what may or may not be a problem.
It's not perception though, it was fight with or fight against. It had a target against it's back and it performed average. It took an entire field of Pro's to try and face directly against the deck and it took 4 of the top 8 slots still.
That's not a sign of a healthy deck with an average win rate, that's the sign of a deck that wasn't prepared for all the hate against it, and still performed average.
It's not perception though, it was fight with or fight against. It had a target against it's back and it performed average. It took an entire field of Pro's to try and face directly against the deck and it took 4 of the top 8 slots still.
I can't find the "standard decks that were 7-2 or better" post on Wotc's website but I'd be hesitant to make all the claims people are making until I see that.
"What decks made top 8" isn't a good indicator because 6 rounds are determined by limited play.
After the Pro Tour, the amount of data that even MTGoldfish provides with "gifted" decklists in competitive leagues. I would like to propose a ban, on Attune with Aether. Every culprit has ran this card since this entire ban hysteria has begun. From Emrakul, to Aetherworks Marvel, till now.
Mana Fixing is one issue, we have seen other formats in the past have such similar issues such as Jace, Vryn's Prodigy into Siege Rhino. Yet this format has another elephant in the room. They run multiple off color 5 & 6 drops that run only 22 lands. Now I understand many people will blame Rogue Refiner, but the biggest culprit is Attune with Aether since it allows for such manafixing and insanely aggressive starts with energy based creatures such as Longtusk Cub and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner.
Energy based decks, Temur & 4-Color were approximately 43% into a Day 2 Performance. Ramunamp Red had a decent performance with 22%, and after those top 3 decks, the percentages drop dramatically. The leading of those is Sultai Energy at 6%. Meaning of the top 4 decks, 49% had the same shell of Attune with Aether, Longtusk Cub, Rogue Refiner.
I don't want to be forced to brew with Attune with Aether or be forced to beat it for the duration of this Standard environment. Ixalan is a great set, but the problem is absolutely with design. They make so many cards every year that the synergistic mechanics will bleed into the top decks. We could have renamed this Pro Tour - Aether Revolt + Hostage Taker, Vraska and Scarab God. Because that's all that was relevant.
Wizards, do the right thing, out of all the bannings you have done, you have always avoided banning Attune with Aether. Just do it and be done with it.
The BG delirium decks with emrakul as a finisher did not play Attune with Aether
Decks with Smuggler's Copter did not play it either
Sure, the 4-color Saheeli decks, the Marvel decks, and the current energy decks do. So what?
The saheeli decks were too strong because of the instant win factor. The Marvel decks were just miserable to play against. The current energy decks are not either of these two things. It's just a powerful midrange deck that has pretty even matchups across the board. I'm calling it - there will not be a single standard ban until the next rotation
I'd like to give my input here via statistical analysis of the decks that went 6-3 or better here. So let us begin by what is being argued here. It appears that many are viewing the ideology that if a meta fields 50% a specific synergy (energy based decks) then there seems to be a skew in the standard format and a ban is necessary.
Note: I am excluding top 8 contention here, these are decks solely based on their runs in the PT and whom did not top 8.
First off let us take all decks that went 9-1 or better here. There were a total of 3 decks here. 2 of which were Ramunap Red and 1 Temur Energy. This makes 66.7% towards Ramunap Red.
Secondly let us look at 8 Wins or better. Here there are a total of 13 decks. 1 Mono-White Vamps, 1 Ramunap Red, 1 White-Blue Cycling and 10 Energy builds. Here we see a massive skew towards Energy (8-2 Split of Temur/Sultai Energy decks. 77% Energy and 8% roughly for each of the other decks.
Thirdly let us look at 7 Wins decks. Here there are a total of 38 decks here. I am not going into the specifics, but just looking at Energy variants, but 24/38 decks ran Energy strategy. This posts at about 63% of the entire field of 7 Wins or better decks.
Finally we are looking at the 6 Wins decks. There are a total of 57 decks. 27 of the lists ran some sort of Energy variant making it 27/57 and about 47% of the field.
Now let us look at the conversion rates of decks that made day 2 (Assuming each of these decks made day 2) and the total for Energy that ran 6 wins or better. So according to WOTC, there was a total of 141 Energy decks that made day 2 (Take out 4 in top 8) , but only 45% of the decks were 6 wins or better. (Again consider I am combining all 4 of the Energy variants here). Comparing this to Ramunap Red, in which 22 out of the 61 (Again take out 1 for the top 8) and you get roughly 37% which is not far off from COMBINED Energy. We can also look at all other decks (UB Control/UW Control/BR Aggro/Etc) and see how they fair and the precentages would be less but not drastically less.
It appears that the perceptual understanding that because a meta fields more than one deck or pros choose one deck over the other mostly does not mean it deserves a Ban and is unreasonably good.
So is it your opinion that taking up 50% of the Pro Tour isn't a little much?
Would it change your mind if it was 50% or higher on the next Pro Tour, as well?
Yes and no respectively.
Bans "on principle" due solely to metagame share are horrible policy and long-term unhealthy for the game, which is what this argument implies.
If the higher metagame share is because the deck is doing something fundamentally unfair (whether it's "doing fair things too well" or doing unfair things), then yes, that metagame share may be cause for alarm.
Energy decks aren't doing this. They are 50/50 decks that have some flex spots which can be tuned for an expected metagame. If those flex spots are right for the weekend then yes, they'll crush the field and look OP. If those flex spots are wrong for the weekend, then you can easily scrub out of a real tournament even with tight play and decent luck. The energy decks can't be tuned to beat everything at once, so there's a ton of room both for pilots of energy decks and people who don't want to play energy decks to metagame and make good weekend calls that pay off.
That's exactly what you want out of a "best deck" format. Look at the last time Standard was truly great: Theros block and Khans of Tarkir block, especially the six months after Dragons of Tarkir came out and before Theros block rotated. You had one deck (Abzan Midrange) that was 50/50 or better against the field and was the single best deck the whole time, but you had a ton of viable other options: Esper Dragons, RG Devotion, RG or Temur Dragons/Monsters, Mono-Red/Atarka Red, GW Company, and even a couple more fringe decks like Bant Heroic, Constellation, Whip of Erebos, and OG Rally the Ancestors that all had a shot to spike a Grand Prix or at least an SCG Open on a particular weekend at some point during that season.
It gives the Spikes -- both grinders/pros and LGS-level players who just enjoy playing to win -- a single deck to master or target and a ton of metagaming room, and it gives the Johnny and Timmy players plenty of options to pursue whatever their hearts desire. Johnny in particular has an absurd number of cards that scream build-around-me: Anointed Procession, New Perspectives, Drake Haven, Aetherflux Reservoir, God-Pharoah's Gift, Metalwork ColossusMechanized Production, Metallurgic Summonings, Revel in Riches, Approach of the Second Sun, Sunbird's Invocation. And Timmy has friggin big stompin Dinosaurs.
After a couple of years of wandering in the desert, WOTC has finally made Standard great again. The only reason people are complaining right now is because the energy mechanic isn't something new. If the energy decks were replaced by some pushed Pirates or Treasures deck and had 28 cards from Ixalan in its maindeck, people would be losing their minds over how exciting and open this format is. But because it's from Kaladesh block (which in fairness had several puzzling R&D decisions, which have been worked out through the banlist already), people are complaining.
So is it your opinion that taking up 50% of the Pro Tour isn't a little much?
Would it change your mind if it was 50% or higher on the next Pro Tour, as well?
Yes and no respectively.
Bans "on principle" due solely to metagame share are horrible policy and long-term unhealthy for the game, which is what this argument implies.
If the higher metagame share is because the deck is doing something fundamentally unfair (whether it's "doing fair things too well" or doing unfair things), then yes, that metagame share may be cause for alarm.
Energy decks aren't doing this. They are 50/50 decks that have some flex spots which can be tuned for an expected metagame. If those flex spots are right for the weekend then yes, they'll crush the field and look OP. If those flex spots are wrong for the weekend, then you can easily scrub out of a real tournament even with tight play and decent luck. The energy decks can't be tuned to beat everything at once, so there's a ton of room both for pilots of energy decks and people who don't want to play energy decks to metagame and make good weekend calls that pay off.
That's exactly what you want out of a "best deck" format. Look at the last time Standard was truly great: Theros block and Khans of Tarkir block, especially the six months after Dragons of Tarkir came out and before Theros block rotated. You had one deck (Abzan Midrange) that was 50/50 or better against the field and was the single best deck the whole time, but you had a ton of viable other options: Esper Dragons, RG Devotion, RG or Temur Dragons/Monsters, Mono-Red/Atarka Red, GW Company, and even a couple more fringe decks like Bant Heroic, Constellation, Whip of Erebos, and OG Rally the Ancestors that all had a shot to spike a Grand Prix or at least an SCG Open on a particular weekend at some point during that season.
It gives the Spikes -- both grinders/pros and LGS-level players who just enjoy playing to win -- a single deck to master or target and a ton of metagaming room, and it gives the Johnny and Timmy players plenty of options to pursue whatever their hearts desire. Johnny in particular has an absurd number of cards that scream build-around-me: Anointed Procession, New Perspectives, Drake Haven, Aetherflux Reservoir, God-Pharoah's Gift, Metalwork ColossusMechanized Production, Metallurgic Summonings, Revel in Riches, Approach of the Second Sun, Sunbird's Invocation. And Timmy has friggin big stompin Dinosaurs.
After a couple of years of wandering in the desert, WOTC has finally made Standard great again. The only reason people are complaining right now is because the energy mechanic isn't something new. If the energy decks were replaced by some pushed Pirates or Treasures deck and had 28 cards from Ixalan in its maindeck, people would be losing their minds over how exciting and open this format is. But because it's from Kaladesh block (which in fairness had several puzzling R&D decisions, which have been worked out through the banlist already), people are complaining.
This exactly sums up my mental understanding of the current Standard meta state. Well put and well explained.
There are a couple of reasons why kaladesh has so much negative energy surrounding it. Two cards from the set are banned outright in standard, it's getting closer and closer to rotation, energy itself got a bad reputation because of marvel, and energy decks draw very little from non-energy based cards from other sets.
A lot of people want the standard ban era to end so all the standard legal sets feel safe. Right now the older sets in standard feel anything but safe.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
There are a couple of reasons why kaladesh has so much negative energy surrounding it. Two cards from the set are banned outright in standard, it's getting closer and closer to rotation, energy itself got a bad reputation because of marvel, and energy decks draw very little from non-energy based cards from other sets.
A lot of people want the standard ban era to end so all the standard legal sets feel safe. Right now the older sets in standard feel anything but safe.
I don't think it helps that there is no real way to Punish Energy mechanically. 3/4 of it's major abilities are at instant speed and can grant card advantage, it turns having answers to many of the huge energy threats to be a PITA, and the mechanic having access to easy mana fixing in the form of Attune and Hub means that energy decks can be incredibly flexible when it comes to side boarding answers to decks that counter them.
I think everything would be fine if mono-red weren't so resilient. The only reason mono-red isn't favored against every deck in the format is because Temur Energy can spend 3 mana to get 5/6 worth of PT spread out over 4 bodies. As it stands, the current builds of mono-red are still fast enough to kill on turn 4-5 like a normal red deck, but have a lot of reach built into them with Hazoret and the utility lands, so they don't really ever sputter out unless they flood out and don't draw Ramunap Ruins and other Desert fodder. And even if they do, sometimes Hazoret just dominates the game singlehandedly and wins anyway.
This puts more pressure than normal on the red deck's opponent to be able to clock and kill the red player. Most red decks have "inevitability" in the sense that they can get you to six and make you have to fade double Lightning Strike, but this deck takes it up to 11 because it has four Hazoret and eight lands that are superb topdecks on top of burn spells.
I think it was very cool design space that WOTC played with when they came up with this red deck in R&D, but they overdid it (probably because they underestimated how good Hazoret would be). You're not really supposed to be able to be this fast and topdeck this well going long.
I think everything would be fine if mono-red weren't so resilient. The only reason mono-red isn't favored against every deck in the format is because Temur Energy can spend 3 mana to get 5/6 worth of PT spread out over 4 bodies. As it stands, the current builds of mono-red are still fast enough to kill on turn 4-5 like a normal red deck, but have a lot of reach built into them with Hazoret and the utility lands, so they don't really ever sputter out unless they flood out and don't draw Ramunap Ruins and other Desert fodder. And even if they do, sometimes Hazoret just dominates the game singlehandedly and wins anyway.
This puts more pressure than normal on the red deck's opponent to be able to clock and kill the red player. Most red decks have "inevitability" in the sense that they can get you to six and make you have to fade double Lightning Strike, but this deck takes it up to 11 because it has four Hazoret and eight lands that are superb topdecks on top of burn spells.
I think it was very cool design space that WOTC played with when they came up with this red deck in R&D, but they overdid it (probably because they underestimated how good Hazoret would be). You're not really supposed to be able to be this fast and topdeck this well going long.
It's not as fast as red decks used to be. It trades speed for late-game inevitability
The problem standard has is that the set that was supposed to keep the format fresh didn't have a big impact on the prevalence of older deck archetypes at the high level events. This tossed a malaise over the entire format.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
The format is stagnant.
Energy and red are the mains with a couple tier 2 Strats that get lucky now and then.
It's oppressive to deal with energy because the mechanic gives too much value to a bunch of average to above average cards. If you miss a beat there's no recovery because energy snowballs.
Solemnity is the only thing that sticks it to them. One card. In white. Play energy or play from behind.(or play red and roll the dice)
It's not as awful as say infect, but it's a more subtle game advantage that builds with each turn of the match.
Standard attendance is down when the format sucks. We're still trying to get out from under Maro's genius moves.
Yes and no respectively.
Bans "on principle" due solely to metagame share are horrible policy and long-term unhealthy for the game, which is what this argument implies.
If the higher metagame share is because the deck is doing something fundamentally unfair (whether it's "doing fair things too well" or doing unfair things), then yes, that metagame share may be cause for alarm.
Energy decks aren't doing this. They are 50/50 decks that have some flex spots which can be tuned for an expected metagame. If those flex spots are right for the weekend then yes, they'll crush the field and look OP. If those flex spots are wrong for the weekend, then you can easily scrub out of a real tournament even with tight play and decent luck. The energy decks can't be tuned to beat everything at once, so there's a ton of room both for pilots of energy decks and people who don't want to play energy decks to metagame and make good weekend calls that pay off.
That's exactly what you want out of a "best deck" format. Look at the last time Standard was truly great: Theros block and Khans of Tarkir block, especially the six months after Dragons of Tarkir came out and before Theros block rotated. You had one deck (Abzan Midrange) that was 50/50 or better against the field and was the single best deck the whole time, but you had a ton of viable other options: Esper Dragons, RG Devotion, RG or Temur Dragons/Monsters, Mono-Red/Atarka Red, GW Company, and even a couple more fringe decks like Bant Heroic, Constellation, Whip of Erebos, and OG Rally the Ancestors that all had a shot to spike a Grand Prix or at least an SCG Open on a particular weekend at some point during that season.
It gives the Spikes -- both grinders/pros and LGS-level players who just enjoy playing to win -- a single deck to master or target and a ton of metagaming room, and it gives the Johnny and Timmy players plenty of options to pursue whatever their hearts desire. Johnny in particular has an absurd number of cards that scream build-around-me: Anointed Procession, New Perspectives, Drake Haven, Aetherflux Reservoir, God-Pharoah's Gift, Metalwork ColossusMechanized Production, Metallurgic Summonings, Revel in Riches, Approach of the Second Sun, Sunbird's Invocation. And Timmy has friggin big stompin Dinosaurs.
After a couple of years of wandering in the desert, WOTC has finally made Standard great again. The only reason people are complaining right now is because the energy mechanic isn't something new. If the energy decks were replaced by some pushed Pirates or Treasures deck and had 28 cards from Ixalan in its maindeck, people would be losing their minds over how exciting and open this format is. But because it's from Kaladesh block (which in fairness had several puzzling R&D decisions, which have been worked out through the banlist already), people are complaining.
The problem right now is simply that Ixalan's tribes aren't supported by the rest of standard. Energy is strong, because it has two set's worth of cards backing it up. Amonkhet has a strong presence in the format with monored and UW decks. Meanwhile, outside of Ixalan there are:
- Two vampires
- Two pirates
- Zero dinosaurs
- Zero Merfolk
We're looking at a 5-set standard, and one of those sets isn't properly supported. Rivals will of course bring more support for those tribes, and Dominara will likely have some cards to help them as well.
I was hopeful that the format would evolve, but I was totally wrong. Standard has been stale and rotation didn't have much effect other than destroying Zombies. I am hopeful anew for Rivals, but it's hard to argue that there's a rational basis for my optimism.
There seems to have been a consensus forming that energy is the problem and banning energy is the solution, but I disagree.
The card that wrecks the format for me is Glorybringer. It is in the two best decks and invalidates too many creatures (Regisaur Alpha, I'm looking at you.) and planeswalkers. If you want to ban something to freshen up the format, just hose Glorybringer. No need to hamstring the main mechanic of two sets, just get rid of one card.
My real hope is that Rivals will make the tribes competitive and nothing gets banned. But if we have nine more months of Temur+ and Ramunap Red, I'll be looking at how Glorybringer affects the format. It doesn't help that Harnessed Lightning is the best answer. Holding up Harnessed Lightning? They play Chandra or Hazoret. Holding up Essence Scatter? They play Chandra or Confiscation Coup. Maybe Rivals will have something to hose Glorybringer that I'm not seeing, but a two mana spell that does 4 at instant speed and can hit planeswalkers and indestructible also seems too strong.
Merfolk in standard might be playable against energy. It might have the tools to thread the needle between mono-red and temur energy. Maybe Vampires could as well, but I think Pirates and Dinosaurs are SOL in this. Even if Glorybringer goes the way of Smuggler's Copter, then maybe that new phoenix or other power card will take its place.
After playing standard for the first time since March, I enjoyed it for the most part. I think the common problem people seem to have is that there's no real way to interact with energy, minus that one enchantment, which sometimes still feels too late.
I also don't think a ban is in the cards or really necessary. Perhaps Aether hub...
This next set is looking very splattered with textboxes that don't necessarily coalesce easily into tribal power. We shall see.
What I do see is that Grasp of Darkness should still be in.
Doom Blade and something in white to exile cheaply is also sorely missed. Reasonable answers to the actual threats presented. The new set hasn't shown us removal yet... and spending 3 for an enchantment that does nothing before you have to spend more to get exiles is NOT where they should be going.
I also don't think a ban is in the cards or really necessary. Perhaps Aether hub...
This next set is looking very splattered with textboxes that don't necessarily coalesce easily into tribal power. We shall see.
What I do see is that Grasp of Darkness should still be in.
Doom Blade and something in white to exile cheaply is also sorely missed. Reasonable answers to the actual threats presented. The new set hasn't shown us removal yet... and spending 3 for an enchantment that does nothing before you have to spend more to get exiles is NOT where they should be going.
I think that a ban might do more harm than good at this point, there have been so many bans in the past year that it might hurt the confidence people have in them to design a good standard format. While energy is by far better than anything else right now, I don't feel that it does anything that broken/over powered. I really miss removal like grasp of darkness/doom blade/good white removal being in the format. I really miss mana leak as well but I understand that could be too good by their current standards for counterspells.
I think that we just need to let energy rotate at this point,in the past year, they've already had to ban an amount of cards not seen in a while. I don't think there's much that would justify a ban right now
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What are your thoughts on the above?
Is Ixalan too one-dimensional/weak to see a REAL presence in the format?
Look at Gishath, Sun’s Avatar. It's like the only dinosaur with a world-building aspect that leads to inevitability. That card is STILL weak when an Abrade combined with many other red cards (like Hazoret) can take it down before it can even do anything. Mono Red isn't supposed to be able to take down giant creatures so easily. It's like Wizards crippled dinosaurs on purpose (7/6 instead of at LEAST 7/7 for king of dinosaurs?). Most of them are garbage in basically every category. These new tribes are seriously lacking. To me, Ixalan seems more like a Command set.
Look at Starcity games' site. They have basically nothing to talk about when it comes to Standard.
http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=17218&d=306531&f=ST
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/scg-standard-iq-roanoke-2017-10-22#paper
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/standard-mocs-10942625#paper
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/tournament/standard-mocs-10942626#paper
So I conclude that the Worlds meta was inbred and unrepresentative.
I see a diverse and evolving meta with a lot of room to leverage both play and deckbuilding skill. The continued presence of Temur-based energy and Ramunap Red are sadly over familiar, but with only one set of the tribal block, concluding that they are a bust seems premature. I still hope that the tribes will affect the meta more when Rivals hits, but it is too soon to tell.
One could even argue that the tribes dominating after only one set would be worse, since the second set might have made them oppressive. In the meantime, I am happily watching the price drops on Hostage Taker and Regisaur. I plan to complete my playsets before Rivals drops and I still hope to reduce them to heavily played condition over the next two years.
RNA Standard: Grixis Midrange, Jund Deathwhirler, Sultai Vannifar
GRN Standard: Red Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Wr Aggro, Gruul Experimental Dinosaurs, Sultai Midrange, Jeskai Midrange
Modern: Bant Spirits
Forcing a single archetype in all formats: too many colors, bad mana.
4 Servant of the Conduit
4 Rogue Refiner
4 Whirler Virtuoso
2 Bristling Hydra
2 Glorybringer
2 The Scarab God
3 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Vraska, Relic Seeker
4 Attune with Aether
2 Magma Spray
1 Abrade
4 Harnessed Lightning
4 Botanical Sanctum
3 Forest
1 Island
2 Mountain
3 Rootbound Crag
1 Sheltered Thicket
3 Spirebluff Canal
1 Swamp
1 Abrade
2 Appetite for the Unnatural
2 Chandra's Defeat
2 Confiscation Coup
1 Magma Spray
3 Negate
2 Nissa, Steward of Elements
1 Spell Pierce
1 Vizier of Many Faces
4 Servant of the Conduit
4 Rogue Refiner
4 Whirler Virtuoso
3 Bristling Hydra
2 The Scarab God
2 Vraska, Relic Seeker
4 Attune with Aether
1 Blossoming Defense
3 Abrade
4 Harnessed Lightning
1 Supreme Will
2 Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1 Blooming Marsh
4 Botanical Sanctum
4 Forest
1 Island
1 Mountain
2 Rootbound Crag
1 Sheltered Thicket
3 Spirebluff Canal
1 Swamp
1 Chandra's Defeat
1 Jace's Defeat
3 Negate
2 Nissa, Steward of Elements
1 Appetite for the Unnatural
2 Cartouche of Ambition
2 Deathgorge Scavenger
1 Confiscation Coup
2 River's Rebuke
Mana Fixing is one issue, we have seen other formats in the past have such similar issues such as Jace, Vryn's Prodigy into Siege Rhino. Yet this format has another elephant in the room. They run multiple off color 5 & 6 drops that run only 22 lands. Now I understand many people will blame Rogue Refiner, but the biggest culprit is Attune with Aether since it allows for such manafixing and insanely aggressive starts with energy based creatures such as Longtusk Cub and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner.
Energy based decks, Temur & 4-Color were approximately 43% into a Day 2 Performance. Ramunamp Red had a decent performance with 22%, and after those top 3 decks, the percentages drop dramatically. The leading of those is Sultai Energy at 6%. Meaning of the top 4 decks, 49% had the same shell of Attune with Aether, Longtusk Cub, Rogue Refiner.
I don't want to be forced to brew with Attune with Aether or be forced to beat it for the duration of this Standard environment. Ixalan is a great set, but the problem is absolutely with design. They make so many cards every year that the synergistic mechanics will bleed into the top decks. We could have renamed this Pro Tour - Aether Revolt + Hostage Taker, Vraska and Scarab God. Because that's all that was relevant.
Wizards, do the right thing, out of all the bannings you have done, you have always avoided banning Attune with Aether. Just do it and be done with it.
(EDIT: You could count Traverse the Ulvenwald here and say it's the second that's been playable, but Attune is the first one that is predominantly a Lay of the Land that's playable. Traverse's playability came from it turning into an improved Worldly Tutor when your engine is online; its mana-fixing was a minor but relevant upside to your deck tuning, not the reason for inclusion, like Attune is.)
Stop with the ban hysteria. The numbers from PT Ixalan are not a problem. The PT was much later in the season than normal, after a lot of unusual strategies were already explored and found wanting, which explains the abnormally high percentage of the field. The energy decks had a high percentage of the field and performed exactly average at all data points for measuring performance, so they're not oppressive or stifling, just very prolific. The decks themselves are very fair midrange decks whose thematic creatures are slightly below-rate on their own and above-rate with a lot of energy production, that's not an issue anymore than last season's Zombies deck was or any other 'tribal' or 'synergy' deck in recent history.
The only argument that has any amount of merit is that energy's mana is too good relative to the rest of the format, but that alone is hardly banworthy. It's less degenerate than the 4c manabases of BFZ/OGW Standard and the attempts to push it into that level (like the base-Sultai version that splashes for Virtuoso/Lightning) are fraught with manabase risks, which is exactly how it ought to be.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
Would it change your mind if it was 50% or higher on the next Pro Tour, as well?
Sure. 50% of the field registered Temur cards.
You should also look at the success rate.
Temur/4 color did not have the highest conversion rate -- they were rather far down actually.
Perception of what the best deck in the format is (people thought Temur was going into this weekend which is why we saw half the field register Temur cards) and reality are often different things.
What's the best deck in the format now? I'd be inclined to think Temur but at the same time there are powerful strategies elsewhere.
Your complaint about half the field registering Temur is rather a complaint about people and their perception of a standard metagame than actually addressing what may or may not be a problem.
It's not perception though, it was fight with or fight against. It had a target against it's back and it performed average. It took an entire field of Pro's to try and face directly against the deck and it took 4 of the top 8 slots still.
That's not a sign of a healthy deck with an average win rate, that's the sign of a deck that wasn't prepared for all the hate against it, and still performed average.
I can't find the "standard decks that were 7-2 or better" post on Wotc's website but I'd be hesitant to make all the claims people are making until I see that.
"What decks made top 8" isn't a good indicator because 6 rounds are determined by limited play.
The BG delirium decks with emrakul as a finisher did not play Attune with Aether
Decks with Smuggler's Copter did not play it either
Sure, the 4-color Saheeli decks, the Marvel decks, and the current energy decks do. So what?
The saheeli decks were too strong because of the instant win factor. The Marvel decks were just miserable to play against. The current energy decks are not either of these two things. It's just a powerful midrange deck that has pretty even matchups across the board. I'm calling it - there will not be a single standard ban until the next rotation
Note: I am excluding top 8 contention here, these are decks solely based on their runs in the PT and whom did not top 8.
First off let us take all decks that went 9-1 or better here. There were a total of 3 decks here. 2 of which were Ramunap Red and 1 Temur Energy. This makes 66.7% towards Ramunap Red.
Secondly let us look at 8 Wins or better. Here there are a total of 13 decks. 1 Mono-White Vamps, 1 Ramunap Red, 1 White-Blue Cycling and 10 Energy builds. Here we see a massive skew towards Energy (8-2 Split of Temur/Sultai Energy decks. 77% Energy and 8% roughly for each of the other decks.
Thirdly let us look at 7 Wins decks. Here there are a total of 38 decks here. I am not going into the specifics, but just looking at Energy variants, but 24/38 decks ran Energy strategy. This posts at about 63% of the entire field of 7 Wins or better decks.
Finally we are looking at the 6 Wins decks. There are a total of 57 decks. 27 of the lists ran some sort of Energy variant making it 27/57 and about 47% of the field.
Now let us look at the conversion rates of decks that made day 2 (Assuming each of these decks made day 2) and the total for Energy that ran 6 wins or better. So according to WOTC, there was a total of 141 Energy decks that made day 2 (Take out 4 in top 8) , but only 45% of the decks were 6 wins or better. (Again consider I am combining all 4 of the Energy variants here). Comparing this to Ramunap Red, in which 22 out of the 61 (Again take out 1 for the top 8) and you get roughly 37% which is not far off from COMBINED Energy. We can also look at all other decks (UB Control/UW Control/BR Aggro/Etc) and see how they fair and the precentages would be less but not drastically less.
It appears that the perceptual understanding that because a meta fields more than one deck or pros choose one deck over the other mostly does not mean it deserves a Ban and is unreasonably good.
BB8-RackBB
Pauper:
UUDelverlUU
Yes and no respectively.
Bans "on principle" due solely to metagame share are horrible policy and long-term unhealthy for the game, which is what this argument implies.
If the higher metagame share is because the deck is doing something fundamentally unfair (whether it's "doing fair things too well" or doing unfair things), then yes, that metagame share may be cause for alarm.
Energy decks aren't doing this. They are 50/50 decks that have some flex spots which can be tuned for an expected metagame. If those flex spots are right for the weekend then yes, they'll crush the field and look OP. If those flex spots are wrong for the weekend, then you can easily scrub out of a real tournament even with tight play and decent luck. The energy decks can't be tuned to beat everything at once, so there's a ton of room both for pilots of energy decks and people who don't want to play energy decks to metagame and make good weekend calls that pay off.
That's exactly what you want out of a "best deck" format. Look at the last time Standard was truly great: Theros block and Khans of Tarkir block, especially the six months after Dragons of Tarkir came out and before Theros block rotated. You had one deck (Abzan Midrange) that was 50/50 or better against the field and was the single best deck the whole time, but you had a ton of viable other options: Esper Dragons, RG Devotion, RG or Temur Dragons/Monsters, Mono-Red/Atarka Red, GW Company, and even a couple more fringe decks like Bant Heroic, Constellation, Whip of Erebos, and OG Rally the Ancestors that all had a shot to spike a Grand Prix or at least an SCG Open on a particular weekend at some point during that season.
It gives the Spikes -- both grinders/pros and LGS-level players who just enjoy playing to win -- a single deck to master or target and a ton of metagaming room, and it gives the Johnny and Timmy players plenty of options to pursue whatever their hearts desire. Johnny in particular has an absurd number of cards that scream build-around-me: Anointed Procession, New Perspectives, Drake Haven, Aetherflux Reservoir, God-Pharoah's Gift, Metalwork Colossus Mechanized Production, Metallurgic Summonings, Revel in Riches, Approach of the Second Sun, Sunbird's Invocation. And Timmy has friggin big stompin Dinosaurs.
After a couple of years of wandering in the desert, WOTC has finally made Standard great again. The only reason people are complaining right now is because the energy mechanic isn't something new. If the energy decks were replaced by some pushed Pirates or Treasures deck and had 28 cards from Ixalan in its maindeck, people would be losing their minds over how exciting and open this format is. But because it's from Kaladesh block (which in fairness had several puzzling R&D decisions, which have been worked out through the banlist already), people are complaining.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
This exactly sums up my mental understanding of the current Standard meta state. Well put and well explained.
BB8-RackBB
Pauper:
UUDelverlUU
A lot of people want the standard ban era to end so all the standard legal sets feel safe. Right now the older sets in standard feel anything but safe.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I don't think it helps that there is no real way to Punish Energy mechanically. 3/4 of it's major abilities are at instant speed and can grant card advantage, it turns having answers to many of the huge energy threats to be a PITA, and the mechanic having access to easy mana fixing in the form of Attune and Hub means that energy decks can be incredibly flexible when it comes to side boarding answers to decks that counter them.
Dragons of Legend, Lead by Scion of the UR-Dragon
The Gitrog Monster
Gonti, Lord of Luxury
Shogun Saskia
Hive World
Atraxa hates fun
Abzan
This puts more pressure than normal on the red deck's opponent to be able to clock and kill the red player. Most red decks have "inevitability" in the sense that they can get you to six and make you have to fade double Lightning Strike, but this deck takes it up to 11 because it has four Hazoret and eight lands that are superb topdecks on top of burn spells.
I think it was very cool design space that WOTC played with when they came up with this red deck in R&D, but they overdid it (probably because they underestimated how good Hazoret would be). You're not really supposed to be able to be this fast and topdeck this well going long.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
It's not as fast as red decks used to be. It trades speed for late-game inevitability
Also it can sometimes just get blown out by Settle the Wreckage
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Energy and red are the mains with a couple tier 2 Strats that get lucky now and then.
It's oppressive to deal with energy because the mechanic gives too much value to a bunch of average to above average cards. If you miss a beat there's no recovery because energy snowballs.
Solemnity is the only thing that sticks it to them. One card. In white. Play energy or play from behind.(or play red and roll the dice)
It's not as awful as say infect, but it's a more subtle game advantage that builds with each turn of the match.
Standard attendance is down when the format sucks. We're still trying to get out from under Maro's genius moves.
The problem right now is simply that Ixalan's tribes aren't supported by the rest of standard. Energy is strong, because it has two set's worth of cards backing it up. Amonkhet has a strong presence in the format with monored and UW decks. Meanwhile, outside of Ixalan there are:
- Two vampires
- Two pirates
- Zero dinosaurs
- Zero Merfolk
We're looking at a 5-set standard, and one of those sets isn't properly supported. Rivals will of course bring more support for those tribes, and Dominara will likely have some cards to help them as well.
There seems to have been a consensus forming that energy is the problem and banning energy is the solution, but I disagree.
The card that wrecks the format for me is Glorybringer. It is in the two best decks and invalidates too many creatures (Regisaur Alpha, I'm looking at you.) and planeswalkers. If you want to ban something to freshen up the format, just hose Glorybringer. No need to hamstring the main mechanic of two sets, just get rid of one card.
My real hope is that Rivals will make the tribes competitive and nothing gets banned. But if we have nine more months of Temur+ and Ramunap Red, I'll be looking at how Glorybringer affects the format. It doesn't help that Harnessed Lightning is the best answer. Holding up Harnessed Lightning? They play Chandra or Hazoret. Holding up Essence Scatter? They play Chandra or Confiscation Coup. Maybe Rivals will have something to hose Glorybringer that I'm not seeing, but a two mana spell that does 4 at instant speed and can hit planeswalkers and indestructible also seems too strong.
RNA Standard: Grixis Midrange, Jund Deathwhirler, Sultai Vannifar
GRN Standard: Red Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Wr Aggro, Gruul Experimental Dinosaurs, Sultai Midrange, Jeskai Midrange
Modern: Bant Spirits
Forcing a single archetype in all formats: too many colors, bad mana.
I will admit that this past format was super boring.
This next set is looking very splattered with textboxes that don't necessarily coalesce easily into tribal power. We shall see.
What I do see is that Grasp of Darkness should still be in.
Doom Blade and something in white to exile cheaply is also sorely missed. Reasonable answers to the actual threats presented. The new set hasn't shown us removal yet... and spending 3 for an enchantment that does nothing before you have to spend more to get exiles is NOT where they should be going.
I think that a ban might do more harm than good at this point, there have been so many bans in the past year that it might hurt the confidence people have in them to design a good standard format. While energy is by far better than anything else right now, I don't feel that it does anything that broken/over powered. I really miss removal like grasp of darkness/doom blade/good white removal being in the format. I really miss mana leak as well but I understand that could be too good by their current standards for counterspells.
I think that we just need to let energy rotate at this point,in the past year, they've already had to ban an amount of cards not seen in a while. I don't think there's much that would justify a ban right now