Needle? 2x main in every deck that's not Mardu or Copy Cat. Answers Heart, Harvester, Saheeli, Gideon, Tracker, Dynavolt.
Want to know the depressing part?
Mardu Vehicles and 4c Saheeli would still be some of the strongest decks in the format even with Pithing needle. The decks are perfectly capable of winning without handily without access to Gideon/Heart or Saheeli.
Tower likely wouldn't survive, however. That said, aside from a good showing at the last Grand Prixs, the deck isn't doing so hot right now anyway.
Mardu Vehicles is currently at 41% of winning decks on MTG Goldfish. In other words it is better than every non 4c Saheeli deck combined, which have an aggregate total of 36%. 4c Saheeli is at 25%.
According to MTGtop 8 results for the past 2 weeks, Mardu Vehicles is at 36%, Saheel is at 32%, and everything else is roughly 32%. In other words, according to MTG top 8 for the last two weeks, every single deck that isn't one of the big two combined is still performing worse than the second best deck in the format.
The really important bit:
"We are also having a lot of discussions internally about what makes for a fun Standard and how hard to push all of the individual themes in our sets—especially as Standard goes from having two major block themes to having four instead. For one, I think that pushing the block mechanics themes pretty hard in two-block world was a good idea, because it helped make each block feel different and helped each year of Standard have more definition. When moving from two to three or four themes per year, we suddenly ran into problems, and in the end, I think we pushed those individual themes too hard. We are also talking about the power of our hate and answer cards within and around the block. While we definitely were moving away from having any strong hate cards for the block's theme within the block when blocks were a year long, that we are hitting four "themes" per Standard means that we will have a hard time dodging them all. We don't need to answer Kaladesh with Shatterstorm or anything like that, but I think in hindsight, making sure that we have at least Naturalize or something stronger in the format is important to keep the format in check, if our themes hit harder than expected." -Sam Stoddard
Basically, we pushed the themes really hard and purposely didn't put in effective hate for them. Um, yea we've been saying.
He's blaming a bit on the switch from 2 sets to the yearly rotation but sets without hate are battlecruiser sets that are turning out just like we are seeing. 2 deck sets.
"Keep the format in check" is also kinda missing the point, stop pushing your mechanics and just design some balanced cards in all colors. He neatly avoids talking at all about the unintended combo and how it's warping the format currently but there's only so much self mutilation you can expect right?
Ahhh, mutilate... how I miss thee.
You know I also can't help but wonder how much the current lack of diversity in Standard is attributed to our own unwillingness to try new things? We've established before that powerful home brew decks can definitely win a few FNMs. Sure winning 4-5 matches isn't like winning 9-10 but if you build a deck that went undefeated at your local FNM a couple time times, what's stopping you from taking that deck to a Grand Prix? And even if you can't, then why not just keep bringing that home brew into FNM? Casual players are the majority of the customer base after all.
If the format is dominated by only two decks, then you'd expect someone by now to have created something that can take out those two, bringing the format back into balance. But instead, everyone is just going along to where the pendulum swings as opposed to trying to bring it back into place. Are we all afraid because we don't know what card they'll ban next? Or is the format really just that screwed up that Wizards has to hit the reset button? We know the current Standard is broken, but if it is not broken to the point of being unsalvageable, then we have a chance to try and fix it (or at least provide more damage control) on our own by trying out new deck builds; otherwise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where our own belief that Standard is broken beyond repair actually results in it becoming broken beyond repair.
No it's not attributed to our lack of innovation. The fact of the matter is that Mardu and Saheeli offer free wins Vs other brews. The cards in their 75 are the best in the format, and it's hard to bring anything else but these 2 decks to compete at a PPTQ, PTQ or GP setting. It's not that we don't try or think of cool brews, it's just that our brews aren't consistent enough to dethrone these 2 decks as it stands with the current card pool. If you want to innovate at the FNM go on ahead, but what you'll notice is that at the top tables you will see Mardu, Saheeli and G/B in some form. That's the meta as it stands.
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Standard Arena: Eh? Gruul or Die
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now: G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record) C Eldrazi Tron (9-5) UG Infect RW Burn
You know I also can't help but wonder how much the current lack of diversity in Standard is attributed to our own unwillingness to try new things? We've established before that powerful home brew decks can definitely win a few FNMs. Sure winning 4-5 matches isn't like winning 9-10 but if you build a deck that went undefeated at your local FNM a couple time times, what's stopping you from taking that deck to a Grand Prix? And even if you can't, then why not just keep bringing that home brew into FNM? Casual players are the majority of the customer base after all.
Tens of thousands of players, hundreds of pros, and countless content creators have all tried to crack the nut of expanding the format and none of them have succeeded. The closest we have gotten was Temur Tower, which is barely holding on in the format. This opining that players are either lazy or unwilling to try new things is insulting beyond belief, and is incredibly arrogant. You are assuming you are smarter than thousands upon thousands of players, including Pros who have written on the subject. You are not.
The numbers I pulled were equally not Grand Prix results, but aggragates. Mardu Vehicles is at 41% of winning decklists. 4c Saheeli is at 24% currently. This is every Online League and Major event combined. MTGtop 8 paints a very similar picture with 35% for Vehicles and 32% for Copycat (Discrepencies due to MTG top 8 also counting PPTQs, minor events, etc). It's not just not wanting to bring other decks to Grand Prixs - it's that other decks are just not working anywhere so why would you bring them to a GP.
If the format is dominated by only two decks, then you'd expect someone by now to have created something that can take out those two, bringing the format back into balance. But instead, everyone is just going along to where the pendulum swings as opposed to trying to bring it back into place. Are we all afraid because we don't know what card they'll ban next? Or is the format really just that screwed up that Wizards has to hit the reset button? We know the current Standard is broken, but if it is not broken to the point of being unsalvageable, then we have a chance to try and fix it (or at least provide more damage control) on our own by trying out new deck builds; otherwise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where our own belief that Standard is broken beyond repair actually results in it becoming broken beyond repair.
Unless, of course, those two decks are incredibly oppressive. If two decks are oppressing the format, then no, you would not see someone create a deck that could take those two out. We aren't afraid, we aren't lazy, and we aren't for a lack of trying new things. That is an arrogant, foolish, and insulting viewpoint. People have tried to crack the format, and nothing particularly sticks. Temur Tower, for instance, was an attempt that simply has not gained legs. It has had a reasonable showing at one GP, and aside from that has disappeared from the format nearly entirely. G/B lists have all but disappeared. There have been attempts to diversify the format, and these attempts have failed. Your continuing insistence that people just aren't trying is ludicrous. They are trying, and they are getting crushed.
Mardu Vehicles and 4c Saheeli just provide zero room for error. You miss a beat for even a single turn, and you have lost the entire game. 4c Saheeli is more egregious and literal with this (As you are required to always have removal at all points in the game that can hit Saheeli or Cat), however Mardu is equally unforgiving. Simply put, the deck is so utterly efficient that it crushes other decks out of the format.
If the format is dominated by only two decks, then you'd expect someone by now to have created something that can take out those two, bringing the format back into balance. But instead, everyone is just going along to where the pendulum swings as opposed to trying to bring it back into place. Are we all afraid because we don't know what card they'll ban next? Or is the format really just that screwed up that Wizards has to hit the reset button? We know the current Standard is broken, but if it is not broken to the point of being unsalvageable, then we have a chance to try and fix it (or at least provide more damage control) on our own by trying out new deck builds; otherwise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where our own belief that Standard is broken beyond repair actually results in it becoming broken beyond repair.
The problem is that beating both Mardu and CopyCat is damn near impossible. You can very easily build a midrange deck that can prey upon Mardu, with things like Ishkanah, Grafwidow. But then, the decks that can beat Mardu just auto lose to CopyCat on T4 because they're tapping out for 4 and 5 drops, like the aforementioned spider. Likewise, beating CopyCat by itself isn't very hard, but those decks end up weak to the aggressive curve outs from Mardu.
It's not a lack of trying that is holding Standard back, we're just in a really weird spot right now. CopyCat is pushing out any deck that can try and go over the top of Mardu, and Mardu is too aggressive and resilient for any decks that could control CopyCat. They end up protecting each other from any rogue brews. And because Mardu and CopyCat are so powerful, trying to build a deck to beat both is a fools errand. That's not to say that other builds like G/B or Temur Tower can't put up results, it's just that if you're going to a GP or something you're just leaving percentage points on the table by choosing to play something other than Mardu or CopyCat.
I don't get the doomsaying in this thread. The last, great standard I was a part of was INN/RTR, which was nearly flawless in the sense that perfect mana, high-level threats and answers with near-perfect color balance made any given deck viable on any given day. That's not rose-colored glasses, you can look back at top 8, even top 16's and see crazy variance in the types, builds, and even just 75 in your average netdeck. Cards we've now had deemed 'too powerful' in the new world order like Snapcaster Mage, Abrupt Decay, Thragtusk/Resto, Hellrider, Lili of the Veil, Sphinx's Revelation and Delver of Secrets changed the face of Modern (for better or worse), and we're sitting here talking about Pithing Needle being OP?! Pithing Needle?! The sideboard card that was barely a 2-of and by far your worst, most desperate hate?
IMO, the biggest problem is this: The $20 rare at the time was Thragtusk. People complained that 5 mana was to little for a 5/3, 5 life, and a 3/3 beast on his way out, plus his synergy with Restoration Angel. He was a natural foil to decks that wanted to burn you down in 5 turns (Naya Blitz, anyone?) In this same format, Victim of Night kept going in and out of mainboards because we were doing math on the three(!) different 2cc instant kill spells and we had to figure out which killed the highest number of varied threats in the format (yes, the math was actually relevant because the meta was so varied).
The big bad this time around is a 2cc 4/4, flying, vigilant creature that nullifies all sorcery removal, including board wipes, and in a format where it's one of the few things in the air. Now while I agree that's bad, I'd like to point out a creature that I think is the poster child for everything wrong with new design - Elder Deep-Fiend. He's not even that in vogue right now, but he makes my point perfectly. A 5/6 body with flash, with an on-cast (basically uncounterable) effect of tapping down 4 permanents, and the native ability to reduce his casting cost. That's literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. It seems like WotC is going to need a smaller font to fit all the freakin' text they're jamming on creatures these days, and he's NOT EVEN THAT GOOD RIGHT NOW. He literally is an uncounterable spell, a huge body, at a cost reduction, all for a base cost that's less than if you cast a spell and play a flash 5/6. And you're going to kill that with mostly sorcery speed removal, a 2-color 3cc instant, or a 3cc flash enchantment?
I mean, the problem is all around us. If Aetherworks Marvel was Quicksilver Amulet, Emrakul doesn't get banned. If Ruinous Path was Heroes Downfall, Gideon wouldn't be as scary (he really wasn't that relevant before Kaladesh, his price tag was nose-diving until vehicles). If Vehicles wasn't such a plodding disaster on every level, graveyard hate existed, the Cat said target creature, and so on, we'd STILL have Creatures: The Gathering. We're not using spells anymore. Creatures are too pushed for the format they're in, but still not good enough for Modern. Sets are 70% draft garbage that murders trees and the remaining 30% consume all value while the format is solved in 2 weeks and leaves us 3 decks to play.
I just don't see this as fixable, which is why I've taken a step back from standard until this mess gets sorted out. It may be another 6 months before we even see the next block have a chance to shine if Amounkhet doesn't do enough to dethrone the big-three meta. R&D needs to scrap every mantra of design they think they've picked up about power levels since RTR, and get back to strong, balanced, and most importantly simple cards that do what their colors do best, and leave the rest up to us.
So you do get the doomsaying then. This is exactly the problem: Answers are more expensive than threats now. When the opposite was true, the game was balanced because of the old problem of "wrong answer for the right threat". But what's it take to answer (4) Aetherworks Marvel? It's not (W) Fragmentize, because they get a free Ulamog and killed 2 lands. The only semi-viable answer out there is Negate, which has the opportunity cost of holding up mana waiting for it to come, so the cost is more than (1U). And then they cast other stuff.
Same story for every planeswalker. If you don't have creatures ready to smash it dead, the planeswalker generally gains an advantage. A spells deck can only compete if it uses permanents to enhance their power: Dynavolt Tower and Torrential Gearhulk.
Okay, so everybody plays permanents that gain advantage. Seems like a viable way for magic to be. I think it actually is. Except for the real problem here: The best permanents don't have good answers. Gideon, Marvel, Copy Cat.
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Current Awesome Deck: UWAll-In GiftsWU Consistent, Resiliant, and way overpowered, making multiple 4/4s per turn.
GB Electric Dreams BG Deal 20 in one shot, or discard their hand?
GWUFree Stuff MidrangeUWG Slowly bury the opponent with more threats and answers than they can handle.
So you do get the doomsaying then. This is exactly the problem: Answers are more expensive than threats now. When the opposite was true, the game was balanced because of the old problem of "wrong answer for the right threat". But what's it take to answer (4) Aetherworks Marvel? It's not (W) Fragmentize, because they get a free Ulamog and killed 2 lands. The only semi-viable answer out there is Negate, which has the opportunity cost of holding up mana waiting for it to come, so the cost is more than (1U). And then they cast other stuff.
Same story for every planeswalker. If you don't have creatures ready to smash it dead, the planeswalker generally gains an advantage. A spells deck can only compete if it uses permanents to enhance their power: Dynavolt Tower and Torrential Gearhulk.
Okay, so everybody plays permanents that gain advantage. Seems like a viable way for magic to be. I think it actually is. Except for the real problem here: The best permanents don't have good answers. Gideon, Marvel, Copy Cat.
I was referring to the doomsaying that Pithing Needle was too strong for the existing format. I mean, cards like Wrath of God and Doom Blade and Pithing Needle had been around so long by the time Core Sets went bye-bye, I just always assumed they'd be there. Not having them was among the worst decisions R&D has made, besides everything else they've done for 5 blocks now. We just keep consolidating all the power into such a small group of cards, so over and above the caliber of anything else in the set that we just keep shrinking the number of viable deck types. Now that a lot of them are getting shoe-horned into the Mythic rarity slot (Grim Flayer, Gideon, Heart, Marvel, Eldrazi, etc), decks are getting smaller in number and more expensive, to boot. Couple that with it being less fun with each set, it's no wonder attendance and streaming viewership is down. It sucks, plain and simple. No one wants to watch vehicle mirrors anymore than they wanted to watch Collected Company mirrors.
So you do get the doomsaying then. This is exactly the problem: Answers are more expensive than threats now. When the opposite was true, the game was balanced because of the old problem of "wrong answer for the right threat". But what's it take to answer (4) Aetherworks Marvel? It's not (W) Fragmentize, because they get a free Ulamog and killed 2 lands. The only semi-viable answer out there is Negate, which has the opportunity cost of holding up mana waiting for it to come, so the cost is more than (1U). And then they cast other stuff.
Same story for every planeswalker. If you don't have creatures ready to smash it dead, the planeswalker generally gains an advantage. A spells deck can only compete if it uses permanents to enhance their power: Dynavolt Tower and Torrential Gearhulk.
Okay, so everybody plays permanents that gain advantage. Seems like a viable way for magic to be. I think it actually is. Except for the real problem here: The best permanents don't have good answers. Gideon, Marvel, Copy Cat.
I was referring to the doomsaying that Pithing Needle was too strong for the existing format. I mean, cards like Wrath of God and Doom Blade and Pithing Needle had been around so long by the time Core Sets went bye-bye, I just always assumed they'd be there. Not having them was among the worst decisions R&D has made, besides everything else they've done for 5 blocks now. We just keep consolidating all the power into such a small group of cards, so over and above the caliber of anything else in the set that we just keep shrinking the number of viable deck types. Now that a lot of them are getting shoe-horned into the Mythic rarity slot (Grim Flayer, Gideon, Heart, Marvel, Eldrazi, etc), decks are getting smaller in number and more expensive, to boot. Couple that with it being less fun with each set, it's no wonder attendance and streaming viewership is down. It sucks, plain and simple. No one wants to watch vehicle mirrors anymore than they wanted to watch Collected Company mirrors.
To be fair, I get the argument for not always wanting 4 cmc Wraths. You can't really make a 4 CMC wrath any better, and it's difficult to justify playing a 5 cmc wrath regardless of text. The reason Fumigate isn't played, for instance, isn't because its bad. It's actually pretty good in a "fair" meta game. It's that we currently are not in a "fair" meta game. We are in a metagame of incredibly sticky threats that dodge most removal already or can go off on their turn if you have to tap out for Fumigate on turn 5.
Equally, the lack of 4 cmc wraths is not the problem right now, either. It's arguable whether having Wrath of God or Supreme Verdict would actually fix the format at all; so many threats dodge those wraths completely that they really wouldn't work properly.
That said, the floor for a good 5 cmc wrath is much higher than that for a 4 cmc one, and this is something I don't think they realized. Adding trinket text to a wrath and tacking on a mana does not make a good wrath (End Hostilities/Planar Outburst come to mind).
I can understand not wanting to have the same exact cards present in the format at all times - but they really need to make sure that the gap being left open by removal these tools can be closed by something. A common example my group references at times is Doom Blade and Delerium Blade: If Doom Blade is keeping something like Delerium Blade difficult to justify playing (Say, a 2 cmc -2/-2 spell that destroys the creature on Delerium), and you use that as justification for removing Doom Blade, then you have to add Delerium Blade to the god damn mix. That's honestly the problem I've had with R&D's philosophy. The argument was that these spells were keeping other, cool spells from existing and yet they didn't print the damn cool cards that these cards were keeping from existing. Then the notion morphed into the ludicrous notion that removal made the format worse, somehow. Had the kept to the original premise of printing cards that are just as strong as the "staples", if not stronger in some contexts, but required a little more intricate deck building, we would have a much better format. That's not what they did, however. We just often get worse versions of fair cards, only now with useless Trinket Text.
So you do get the doomsaying then. This is exactly the problem: Answers are more expensive than threats now. When the opposite was true, the game was balanced because of the old problem of "wrong answer for the right threat". But what's it take to answer (4) Aetherworks Marvel? It's not (W) Fragmentize, because they get a free Ulamog and killed 2 lands. The only semi-viable answer out there is Negate, which has the opportunity cost of holding up mana waiting for it to come, so the cost is more than (1U). And then they cast other stuff.
Same story for every planeswalker. If you don't have creatures ready to smash it dead, the planeswalker generally gains an advantage. A spells deck can only compete if it uses permanents to enhance their power: Dynavolt Tower and Torrential Gearhulk.
Okay, so everybody plays permanents that gain advantage. Seems like a viable way for magic to be. I think it actually is. Except for the real problem here: The best permanents don't have good answers. Gideon, Marvel, Copy Cat.
I was referring to the doomsaying that Pithing Needle was too strong for the existing format. I mean, cards like Wrath of God and Doom Blade and Pithing Needle had been around so long by the time Core Sets went bye-bye, I just always assumed they'd be there. Not having them was among the worst decisions R&D has made, besides everything else they've done for 5 blocks now. We just keep consolidating all the power into such a small group of cards, so over and above the caliber of anything else in the set that we just keep shrinking the number of viable deck types. Now that a lot of them are getting shoe-horned into the Mythic rarity slot (Grim Flayer, Gideon, Heart, Marvel, Eldrazi, etc), decks are getting smaller in number and more expensive, to boot. Couple that with it being less fun with each set, it's no wonder attendance and streaming viewership is down. It sucks, plain and simple. No one wants to watch vehicle mirrors anymore than they wanted to watch Collected Company mirrors.
To be fair, I get the argument for not always wanting 4 cmc Wraths. You can't really make a 4 CMC wrath any better, and it's difficult to justify playing a 5 cmc wrath regardless of text. The reason Fumigate isn't played, for instance, isn't because its bad. It's actually pretty good in a "fair" meta game. It's that we currently are not in a "fair" meta game. We are in a metagame of incredibly sticky threats that dodge most removal already or can go off on their turn if you have to tap out for Fumigate on turn 5.
Equally, the lack of 4 cmc wraths is not the problem right now, either. It's arguable whether having Wrath of God or Supreme Verdict would actually fix the format at all; so many threats dodge those wraths completely that they really wouldn't work properly.
That said, the floor for a good 5 cmc wrath is much higher than that for a 4 cmc one, and this is something I don't think they realized. Adding trinket text to a wrath and tacking on a mana does not make a good wrath (End Hostilities/Planar Outburst come to mind).
I can understand not wanting to have the same exact cards present in the format at all times - but they really need to make sure that the gap being left open by removal these tools can be closed by something. A common example my group references at times is Doom Blade and Delerium Blade: If Doom Blade is keeping something like Delerium Blade difficult to justify playing (Say, a 2 cmc -2/-2 spell that destroys the creature on Delerium), and you use that as justification for removing Doom Blade, then you have to add Delerium Blade to the god damn mix. That's honestly the problem I've had with R&D's philosophy. The argument was that these spells were keeping other, cool spells from existing and yet they didn't print the damn cool cards that these cards were keeping from existing. Then the notion morphed into the ludicrous notion that removal made the format worse, somehow. Had the kept to the original premise of printing cards that are just as strong as the "staples", if not stronger in some contexts, but required a little more intricate deck building, we would have a much better format. That's not what they did, however. We just often get worse versions of fair cards, only now with useless Trinket Text.
I am totally with you on this. I mean, I hate the format as it is now, I can't imagine how bad it would be if Ruinous Path was actually relevant. Trading sorcery speed from Heroes Downfall in order pick up the option to get a 4/4 if you jack the cost to 7? How titanically slow and plodding would a format have to be that a 1-for-1 with a body at 7 mana is a game-changer? I mean...Nekrataal...?
I don't get the doomsaying in this thread. The last, great standard I was a part of was INN/RTR, which was nearly flawless in the sense that perfect mana, high-level threats and answers with near-perfect color balance made any given deck viable on any given day. That's not rose-colored glasses, you can look back at top 8, even top 16's and see crazy variance in the types, builds, and even just 75 in your average netdeck. Cards we've now had deemed 'too powerful' in the new world order like Snapcaster Mage, Abrupt Decay, Thragtusk/Resto, Hellrider, Lili of the Veil, Sphinx's Revelation and Delver of Secrets changed the face of Modern (for better or worse), and we're sitting here talking about Pithing Needle being OP?! Pithing Needle?! The sideboard card that was barely a 2-of and by far your worst, most desperate hate?
I agree with this point in general, but I do want to note that you didn't have perfect mana in that format. And that's a good thing. For what happens when you do have perfect mana, you get the utter mess that was Khans-BFZ.
And while I did enjoy Innistrad-RTR on the whole (if not as much as Scars-Innistrad, even if the latter was less diverse), I will say that Bonfire of the Damned can die in its own fire.
I agree with this point in general, but I do want to note that you didn't have perfect mana in that format. And that's a good thing. For what happens when you do have perfect mana, you get the utter mess that was Khans-BFZ.
And while I did enjoy Innistrad-RTR on the whole (if not as much as Scars-Innistrad, even if the latter was less diverse), I will say that Bonfire of the Damned can die in its own fire.
We didn't have perfect mana in Innistrad-RTR?
Inbetween a full Shock cycle and a checklands cycle we had one of the strongest manabases ever. And that's not even mentioning Chromatic Lantern and all the specific guildgate fetches for the Maze's End turbofog decks.
I agree with this point in general, but I do want to note that you didn't have perfect mana in that format. And that's a good thing. For what happens when you do have perfect mana, you get the utter mess that was Khans-BFZ.
And while I did enjoy Innistrad-RTR on the whole (if not as much as Scars-Innistrad, even if the latter was less diverse), I will say that Bonfire of the Damned can die in its own fire.
We didn't have perfect mana in Innistrad-RTR?
Inbetween a full Shock cycle and a checklands cycle we had one of the strongest manabases ever. And that's not even mentioning Chromatic Lantern and all the specific guildgate fetches for the Maze's End turbofog decks.
The mana was really good. But it wasn't as over the top as the absurdity we had in Khans-BFZ which was a frequent complaint about that format.
Also, I question the relevance of Maze's End and Chromatic Lantern, as they barely saw any play (Maze's End was okay for spiking the occasional FNM but was mediocre in every other environment).
To be fair I think that Crux of Fate was the one 5cc wrath effect they got right. It's power in that Standard was purely incidental but it worked in Esper Dragons.
For a 5cc+ sweeper to be good it has to, I feel, be either one-sided (much like Crux of Fate was) or it has to deal with more then one kind of permanent. Austere Command would feel really nice in this Standard but it's not like there is a chance of that happening anytime soon. Some sort of functional reprint of Akroma's Vengeance would also be interesting in Amonkhet but I just don't give WotC enough credit to think that they will at least try it. Is Planar Cleansing really that busted by today's standards?
There are other examples of functional 5cc+ sweepers but WotC seems much more at ease with giving us 3/x creatures for two mana or less and denying us catch-all sweepers that cost less then five.
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In my dream, the world had suffered a terrible disaster. A black haze shut out the sun, and the darkness was alive with the moans and screams of wounded people. Suddenly, a small light glowed. A candle flickered into life, symbol of hope for millions. A single tiny candle, shining in the ugly dark. I laughed and blew it out.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.
Want to know the depressing part?
Mardu Vehicles and 4c Saheeli would still be some of the strongest decks in the format even with Pithing needle. The decks are perfectly capable of winning without handily without access to Gideon/Heart or Saheeli.
Tower likely wouldn't survive, however. That said, aside from a good showing at the last Grand Prixs, the deck isn't doing so hot right now anyway.
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/metagame/standard#online
Mardu Vehicles is currently at 41% of winning decks on MTG Goldfish. In other words it is better than every non 4c Saheeli deck combined, which have an aggregate total of 36%. 4c Saheeli is at 25%.
According to MTGtop 8 results for the past 2 weeks, Mardu Vehicles is at 36%, Saheel is at 32%, and everything else is roughly 32%. In other words, according to MTG top 8 for the last two weeks, every single deck that isn't one of the big two combined is still performing worse than the second best deck in the format.
http://mtgtop8.com/format?f=ST&meta=50
http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/latest-developments/update-standard-2017-03-24
The really important bit:
"We are also having a lot of discussions internally about what makes for a fun Standard and how hard to push all of the individual themes in our sets—especially as Standard goes from having two major block themes to having four instead. For one, I think that pushing the block mechanics themes pretty hard in two-block world was a good idea, because it helped make each block feel different and helped each year of Standard have more definition. When moving from two to three or four themes per year, we suddenly ran into problems, and in the end, I think we pushed those individual themes too hard. We are also talking about the power of our hate and answer cards within and around the block. While we definitely were moving away from having any strong hate cards for the block's theme within the block when blocks were a year long, that we are hitting four "themes" per Standard means that we will have a hard time dodging them all. We don't need to answer Kaladesh with Shatterstorm or anything like that, but I think in hindsight, making sure that we have at least Naturalize or something stronger in the format is important to keep the format in check, if our themes hit harder than expected." -Sam Stoddard
Basically, we pushed the themes really hard and purposely didn't put in effective hate for them. Um, yea we've been saying.
He's blaming a bit on the switch from 2 sets to the yearly rotation but sets without hate are battlecruiser sets that are turning out just like we are seeing. 2 deck sets.
"Keep the format in check" is also kinda missing the point, stop pushing your mechanics and just design some balanced cards in all colors. He neatly avoids talking at all about the unintended combo and how it's warping the format currently but there's only so much self mutilation you can expect right?
Ahhh, mutilate... how I miss thee.
If the format is dominated by only two decks, then you'd expect someone by now to have created something that can take out those two, bringing the format back into balance. But instead, everyone is just going along to where the pendulum swings as opposed to trying to bring it back into place. Are we all afraid because we don't know what card they'll ban next? Or is the format really just that screwed up that Wizards has to hit the reset button? We know the current Standard is broken, but if it is not broken to the point of being unsalvageable, then we have a chance to try and fix it (or at least provide more damage control) on our own by trying out new deck builds; otherwise, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where our own belief that Standard is broken beyond repair actually results in it becoming broken beyond repair.
Modern: Decks I'm playing right now:
G Mono Green Tron (34-10-3 paper record, only SCG/Regionals/PPTQ record)
C Eldrazi Tron (9-5)
UG Infect
RW Burn
Tens of thousands of players, hundreds of pros, and countless content creators have all tried to crack the nut of expanding the format and none of them have succeeded. The closest we have gotten was Temur Tower, which is barely holding on in the format. This opining that players are either lazy or unwilling to try new things is insulting beyond belief, and is incredibly arrogant. You are assuming you are smarter than thousands upon thousands of players, including Pros who have written on the subject. You are not.
The numbers I pulled were equally not Grand Prix results, but aggragates. Mardu Vehicles is at 41% of winning decklists. 4c Saheeli is at 24% currently. This is every Online League and Major event combined. MTGtop 8 paints a very similar picture with 35% for Vehicles and 32% for Copycat (Discrepencies due to MTG top 8 also counting PPTQs, minor events, etc). It's not just not wanting to bring other decks to Grand Prixs - it's that other decks are just not working anywhere so why would you bring them to a GP.
Unless, of course, those two decks are incredibly oppressive. If two decks are oppressing the format, then no, you would not see someone create a deck that could take those two out. We aren't afraid, we aren't lazy, and we aren't for a lack of trying new things. That is an arrogant, foolish, and insulting viewpoint. People have tried to crack the format, and nothing particularly sticks. Temur Tower, for instance, was an attempt that simply has not gained legs. It has had a reasonable showing at one GP, and aside from that has disappeared from the format nearly entirely. G/B lists have all but disappeared. There have been attempts to diversify the format, and these attempts have failed. Your continuing insistence that people just aren't trying is ludicrous. They are trying, and they are getting crushed.
Mardu Vehicles and 4c Saheeli just provide zero room for error. You miss a beat for even a single turn, and you have lost the entire game. 4c Saheeli is more egregious and literal with this (As you are required to always have removal at all points in the game that can hit Saheeli or Cat), however Mardu is equally unforgiving. Simply put, the deck is so utterly efficient that it crushes other decks out of the format.
It's not a lack of trying that is holding Standard back, we're just in a really weird spot right now. CopyCat is pushing out any deck that can try and go over the top of Mardu, and Mardu is too aggressive and resilient for any decks that could control CopyCat. They end up protecting each other from any rogue brews. And because Mardu and CopyCat are so powerful, trying to build a deck to beat both is a fools errand. That's not to say that other builds like G/B or Temur Tower can't put up results, it's just that if you're going to a GP or something you're just leaving percentage points on the table by choosing to play something other than Mardu or CopyCat.
IMO, the biggest problem is this: The $20 rare at the time was Thragtusk. People complained that 5 mana was to little for a 5/3, 5 life, and a 3/3 beast on his way out, plus his synergy with Restoration Angel. He was a natural foil to decks that wanted to burn you down in 5 turns (Naya Blitz, anyone?) In this same format, Victim of Night kept going in and out of mainboards because we were doing math on the three(!) different 2cc instant kill spells and we had to figure out which killed the highest number of varied threats in the format (yes, the math was actually relevant because the meta was so varied).
The big bad this time around is a 2cc 4/4, flying, vigilant creature that nullifies all sorcery removal, including board wipes, and in a format where it's one of the few things in the air. Now while I agree that's bad, I'd like to point out a creature that I think is the poster child for everything wrong with new design - Elder Deep-Fiend. He's not even that in vogue right now, but he makes my point perfectly. A 5/6 body with flash, with an on-cast (basically uncounterable) effect of tapping down 4 permanents, and the native ability to reduce his casting cost. That's literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. It seems like WotC is going to need a smaller font to fit all the freakin' text they're jamming on creatures these days, and he's NOT EVEN THAT GOOD RIGHT NOW. He literally is an uncounterable spell, a huge body, at a cost reduction, all for a base cost that's less than if you cast a spell and play a flash 5/6. And you're going to kill that with mostly sorcery speed removal, a 2-color 3cc instant, or a 3cc flash enchantment?
I mean, the problem is all around us. If Aetherworks Marvel was Quicksilver Amulet, Emrakul doesn't get banned. If Ruinous Path was Heroes Downfall, Gideon wouldn't be as scary (he really wasn't that relevant before Kaladesh, his price tag was nose-diving until vehicles). If Vehicles wasn't such a plodding disaster on every level, graveyard hate existed, the Cat said target creature, and so on, we'd STILL have Creatures: The Gathering. We're not using spells anymore. Creatures are too pushed for the format they're in, but still not good enough for Modern. Sets are 70% draft garbage that murders trees and the remaining 30% consume all value while the format is solved in 2 weeks and leaves us 3 decks to play.
I just don't see this as fixable, which is why I've taken a step back from standard until this mess gets sorted out. It may be another 6 months before we even see the next block have a chance to shine if Amounkhet doesn't do enough to dethrone the big-three meta. R&D needs to scrap every mantra of design they think they've picked up about power levels since RTR, and get back to strong, balanced, and most importantly simple cards that do what their colors do best, and leave the rest up to us.
Same story for every planeswalker. If you don't have creatures ready to smash it dead, the planeswalker generally gains an advantage. A spells deck can only compete if it uses permanents to enhance their power: Dynavolt Tower and Torrential Gearhulk.
Okay, so everybody plays permanents that gain advantage. Seems like a viable way for magic to be. I think it actually is. Except for the real problem here: The best permanents don't have good answers. Gideon, Marvel, Copy Cat.
GB Electric Dreams BG Deal 20 in one shot, or discard their hand?
GWU Free Stuff Midrange UWG Slowly bury the opponent with more threats and answers than they can handle.
My greatest hits:
GURFate Reforged Temur Ascendancy COMBORUG
GUDragons of Tarkir Whisperwood Forever UG
I was referring to the doomsaying that Pithing Needle was too strong for the existing format. I mean, cards like Wrath of God and Doom Blade and Pithing Needle had been around so long by the time Core Sets went bye-bye, I just always assumed they'd be there. Not having them was among the worst decisions R&D has made, besides everything else they've done for 5 blocks now. We just keep consolidating all the power into such a small group of cards, so over and above the caliber of anything else in the set that we just keep shrinking the number of viable deck types. Now that a lot of them are getting shoe-horned into the Mythic rarity slot (Grim Flayer, Gideon, Heart, Marvel, Eldrazi, etc), decks are getting smaller in number and more expensive, to boot. Couple that with it being less fun with each set, it's no wonder attendance and streaming viewership is down. It sucks, plain and simple. No one wants to watch vehicle mirrors anymore than they wanted to watch Collected Company mirrors.
To be fair, I get the argument for not always wanting 4 cmc Wraths. You can't really make a 4 CMC wrath any better, and it's difficult to justify playing a 5 cmc wrath regardless of text. The reason Fumigate isn't played, for instance, isn't because its bad. It's actually pretty good in a "fair" meta game. It's that we currently are not in a "fair" meta game. We are in a metagame of incredibly sticky threats that dodge most removal already or can go off on their turn if you have to tap out for Fumigate on turn 5.
Equally, the lack of 4 cmc wraths is not the problem right now, either. It's arguable whether having Wrath of God or Supreme Verdict would actually fix the format at all; so many threats dodge those wraths completely that they really wouldn't work properly.
That said, the floor for a good 5 cmc wrath is much higher than that for a 4 cmc one, and this is something I don't think they realized. Adding trinket text to a wrath and tacking on a mana does not make a good wrath (End Hostilities/Planar Outburst come to mind).
I can understand not wanting to have the same exact cards present in the format at all times - but they really need to make sure that the gap being left open by removal these tools can be closed by something. A common example my group references at times is Doom Blade and Delerium Blade: If Doom Blade is keeping something like Delerium Blade difficult to justify playing (Say, a 2 cmc -2/-2 spell that destroys the creature on Delerium), and you use that as justification for removing Doom Blade, then you have to add Delerium Blade to the god damn mix. That's honestly the problem I've had with R&D's philosophy. The argument was that these spells were keeping other, cool spells from existing and yet they didn't print the damn cool cards that these cards were keeping from existing. Then the notion morphed into the ludicrous notion that removal made the format worse, somehow. Had the kept to the original premise of printing cards that are just as strong as the "staples", if not stronger in some contexts, but required a little more intricate deck building, we would have a much better format. That's not what they did, however. We just often get worse versions of fair cards, only now with useless Trinket Text.
I am totally with you on this. I mean, I hate the format as it is now, I can't imagine how bad it would be if Ruinous Path was actually relevant. Trading sorcery speed from Heroes Downfall in order pick up the option to get a 4/4 if you jack the cost to 7? How titanically slow and plodding would a format have to be that a 1-for-1 with a body at 7 mana is a game-changer? I mean...Nekrataal...?
And while I did enjoy Innistrad-RTR on the whole (if not as much as Scars-Innistrad, even if the latter was less diverse), I will say that Bonfire of the Damned can die in its own fire.
We didn't have perfect mana in Innistrad-RTR?
Inbetween a full Shock cycle and a checklands cycle we had one of the strongest manabases ever. And that's not even mentioning Chromatic Lantern and all the specific guildgate fetches for the Maze's End turbofog decks.
Also, I question the relevance of Maze's End and Chromatic Lantern, as they barely saw any play (Maze's End was okay for spiking the occasional FNM but was mediocre in every other environment).
For a 5cc+ sweeper to be good it has to, I feel, be either one-sided (much like Crux of Fate was) or it has to deal with more then one kind of permanent. Austere Command would feel really nice in this Standard but it's not like there is a chance of that happening anytime soon. Some sort of functional reprint of Akroma's Vengeance would also be interesting in Amonkhet but I just don't give WotC enough credit to think that they will at least try it. Is Planar Cleansing really that busted by today's standards?
There are other examples of functional 5cc+ sweepers but WotC seems much more at ease with giving us 3/x creatures for two mana or less and denying us catch-all sweepers that cost less then five.
Many thanks to HotP Studios. Special thanks to DNC for this great sig.