Having it's price plummeted and very few decks maindecking it, is the time finally over for the resilient lizard?
If the card is badly positioned due to exile effects are abundant in today's cardpool, the only maindeck cards I can see people frequently use are Silkwrap and Anafenza, the Foremost, and sometimes Kalitas.
It's been bad for a while honestly, for a few reasons.
Deathmist Raptor only really shines in decks with inevitability over most of the format. It's a very slow, durdly creature that is inferior at the beatdown plan compared to a host of well-positioned options (notably Anafenza). So a Deathmist Raptor deck needs to be playing with inevitability as a primary selling point to thrive in this environment.
Deathmist Raptor decks have always had this problem. Back in THS-DTK/ORI Standard, those decks couldn't outgrind Elspeth or Ugin, and their long game was weaker than GR Devotion's endless stream of answer-now-or-die beaters. This was mitigated a bit during late DTK Standard because you could play Deathmist Raptor in the Elspeth deck (but at that point it was really still an Elspeth deck that just packed Deathmist Raptor to boost its game against Esper Dragons), but the dedicated Deathmist Raptor decks typically couldn't beat Elspeth + spot removal for Den Protectors trying to come through the wall of soldiers.
For a while in BFZ we thought Raptor could legitimately be a force in the format, because it actually could outgrind Dark Jeskai (the presumed grindiest deck in the format) by running them out of spot removal. Coupled with Gideon it was a pretty powerful grinding duo. But then we discovered Rally and Ulamog Ramp, and, well... see above.
Presumably, Deathmist Raptor will have a chance of being good again at the start of SOI Standard, when the Khans cards rotate out and everything gets shaken up (but notably Raptor remains). However, I don't think it'll have much of a chance at sticking around even then, because the Ulamog Ramp deck isn't going anywhere either (it's only losing Ugin, who is slowly making his way out of the deck anyway, having been found mostly inferior to other options at the "intermediate" spot in the ramp deck's payoff curve). Rally will rotate, and it's possible that the Ulamog Ramp deck is too volatile / vulnerable to being hated out (we haven't really seen the forecast dominance of that deck yet), so maybe there's a chance. But it's really not looking good. The stuff that goes over the top of it isn't going anywhere.
I remember in post Pro Tour BFZ meta, the Rally deck haven't been recognized as a true contender. Then it starts racking up wins, and it keeps getting stronger by OGW additions. I do agree Raptor decks are neither aggressive enough or have enough threat density to deal with Eldrazi Ramp or Rally decks. Not to mention Raptor decks usually packs few interactions.
I remember in post Pro Tour BFZ meta, the Rally deck haven't been recognized as a true contender. Then it starts racking up wins, and it keeps getting stronger by OGW additions. I do agree Raptor decks are neither aggressive enough or have enough threat density to deal with Eldrazi Ramp or Rally decks. Not to mention Raptor decks usually packs few interactions.
I mean, Raptor decks usually do pack interaction, but it's usually along the lines of spot removal, which aren't useful against either 4-Color Rally or GR Eldrazi.
Basically, Raptor shines when Esper Dragons or similar control decks are good. And Esper Dragons is not great right now.
There's a chance that some of the UG/WUG CoCo/Tempo type decks seeing some play currently could run it.
Outside of the above mentioned reasons I think it's also a casualty of 4 Color Goodstuff decks being the go-to, which makes Jace into a 1st pick for the Den Protector slot in a lot of decks (and you aren't running Raptors without Den Protector, not to mention 4C makes GG harder). Because of this, I actually think there's a good chance it'll see some increased play after rotation as I expect 4C decks to go away. This will be especially true if (as is typical) there's some sort of constructed playable Eldrazi-hosing card printed in Shadows.
is it possible to run the raptors as just a piece, rather than a build around?
den protectors are an auto include in green decks anyway, so would it be possible to just throw some deathmists in, use them as a beater/removal and if you get it back yay and if not no big deal?
if they kill it or trade with something, well mission accomplished it did what any other 3 mana spell would've done?
Big problem with just throwing a Raptor in here and there is that you need nineteen green sources to cast it reliably on turn 3. That's a heavy commitment to green, and it pushes you toward some very specific color combinations that may not be well-positioned with Raptor in there.
It's also just not a very efficient beater for 3 mana. You can get higher-impact creatures at that task for the same cmc.
They are slow, hard to cast and not that powerful. Other than being a good Bellower or Company target, they are not that useful unless a slow control deck is good. The grindy G deck they are best in is a dog to Ramp. They take splash damage because Rally and other aristocrats-type decks make Anafenza really good right now. So they are not a good build around, IMO (and I've tried).
Are they a good value creature in some decks? That depends. Make the rest of the deck first, then someone can answer on a case-by-case basis.
Now that Ramp and Rally are better, non-ramp G decks have to be faster. That means that Den Protector just got worse. Without Den Protector, ...
Big problem with just throwing a Raptor in here and there is that you need nineteen green sources to cast it reliably on turn 3. That's a heavy commitment to green, and it pushes you toward some very specific color combinations that may not be well-positioned with Raptor in there.
It's also just not a very efficient beater for 3 mana. You can get higher-impact creatures at that task for the same cmc.
To elaborate on this a bit, the currently favored mana bases of the format are incredibly good at getting 3-4 colors of mana online, however are fairly awkward at getting double-colored mana online early enough for Deathmist to really be a strong play to begin with.
If you were to play a deck that could reasonably get Deathmist out on turn 3, you would either be forced into one of the Shards, particularly Naya, or if in 4-colors you would need almost all of your fetches to get a green source. The former is relatively simple and provides a reasonably consistent mana base, but there isn't any particular reason to go this route from where I stand as it doesn't provide you much in the way of a strong strategy. The most potent effects in Green are Den Protector and Collected Company as of right now, and going this route just doesn't give you that much more than what you have available elsewhere. The latter has the pitfall of likely being a slow, awkward, and painful mana base that would lose out on a good number of games by being tempod out or overpowered. There will be some games in said scenario where you will not have the luxury of fetching basics to cast Deathmist on turn 3, and honestly Deathmist pales in comparison to what other decks are doing (Collected Companies, Siege Rhino, casting a 5-7 cost spell with ramp, having you dead to rights in Atarka Red). Other decks geta away with playing double-mana cost spells, however this is largely due to them being late game plays as well as being in the decks "main" fetchable color (Notably Rally the Ancestors and Kalitas).
The third route is to go two colors, with the go-to of GW. You've already touched on this issue, so I'll leave it at that.
This, of course, isn't going into what you already stated as the other issues. Just an elaboration on the current mana-bases. They are great at consistently getting at least 1 mana of any given color online in the opening turns, but far less consistent at providing multiple of any given color source. To make Deathmist work, you would either need to be in an as of current completely unproven shard (Where fetching a green source is far simpler due to having more fetchlands available), have a mana-base that is too slow the party, or be in a deck that frankly doesn't work in the current meta game.
Raptors usually very strong defensively and it deters attackers. Especially good with Dromoka's Command as we've seen in GW decks. I guess the longstanding issue with green-based decks is evasion. Den Protector has conditional evasion at best.
Whatever build the Raptor is going in to, aside from green, the other color must provide either evasion or disruption. More specifically when Rally decks gum up the board with Collected Company.
Doubtful, the main deck suppressing Deathmist Raptor right now is Ulamog Ramp, which isn't going anywhere post-rotation as far as we can see.
Unless something gets printed in SOI that just randomly hoses Ulamog Ramp, you can expect durdly strategies to be suppressed until Dragons of Tarkir rotates, assuming that the block after Shadows doesn't bring ramp spells with it.
Doubtful, the main deck suppressing Deathmist Raptor right now is Ulamog Ramp, which isn't going anywhere post-rotation as far as we can see.
Unless something gets printed in SOI that just randomly hoses Ulamog Ramp, you can expect durdly strategies to be suppressed until Dragons of Tarkir rotates, assuming that the block after Shadows doesn't bring ramp spells with it.
Ulamog Ramp will lose Ugin. Ugin is one of the biggest reasons why Deathmist isn't great right now, his -X is tough to get past. Without it Ulamog ramp needs a alternate win condition that can't be Infinite Obliterationed away.
Doubtful, the main deck suppressing Deathmist Raptor right now is Ulamog Ramp, which isn't going anywhere post-rotation as far as we can see.
Unless something gets printed in SOI that just randomly hoses Ulamog Ramp, you can expect durdly strategies to be suppressed until Dragons of Tarkir rotates, assuming that the block after Shadows doesn't bring ramp spells with it.
Ulamog Ramp will lose Ugin. Ugin is one of the biggest reasons why Deathmist isn't great right now, his -X is tough to get past. Without it Ulamog ramp needs a alternate win condition that can't be Infinite Obliterationed away.
I've seen some decks have success going a bit smaller, having a curve of Thought-Not seer and Reality smasher into Worldbreak, and finally Ulamog coupled with a light ramp base. Even if you go 4x World-breaker, 2x Atarka, 4x Ulamog, you are demanding at least two Obliterations to nullify the deck. This isn't counting the nutty 1-ofs of Kozilek and Void Winnower that show up specifically due to Obliteration. While it hurts the decks, and Ugin will be sorely missed, Obliteration isn't really an answer to the deck that it once was.
It has been bad recently because it's 1GG mana cost isn't good in this format (as mentioned above, the first source is easy, a second early source is MUCH harder), and because the format allows for so much splashing that Den Protector isn't as good anymore either. Ramp doesn't want them, and the various 4 color decks can play better sources of CA than Protector. Also, there is a lot of incidental graveyard hate in the format.
With rotation bringing a largely two-color based format, it's possible that Raptor will have a deck that can reliable cast it early. With Anafenza gone, there should also be a bit less hate in the format. What it really comes down to what the late game is for other decks in the format. If Raptor provides a stronger late game than some (even if not all) other decks, without being a dead card early, it could be good. If almost every deck is either all-in aggro, packs maindeck graveyard hate, or has an unbeatable late game (Ulamog or Rally), Raptor is bad. If there are a lot of other midrange decks, then a midrange deck can get a strong late game advantage by running Protector/Raptor.
GW or RG midrange would probably be the best options for Raptor. I know plenty of people are testing RG midrange (most likely due to Arlin Kord hype), I wonder if anyone has found Raptor to be okay there.
i gave him a go a few weeks ago at LGS FNM and he performed fairly well in tune with Den Protector. that being said i got stomped by very aggressive decks that go wide. he doesn't shine well in situations like that and aside from that, there were (may have just been a local thing) waayyyyyy too many Kalitas in main/side to really make the raptor a worthy contender. i'd say it's not out of the question (heck i'm still going to try), but i believe the card is on the downswing. with upcoming inevitability cards like bygone bishop and tireless tracker, i could see a grindy deck doing okay again. we will see.
If the card is badly positioned due to exile effects are abundant in today's cardpool, the only maindeck cards I can see people frequently use are Silkwrap and Anafenza, the Foremost, and sometimes Kalitas.
Have we seen the demise of Deathmist Raptor?
Deathmist Raptor only really shines in decks with inevitability over most of the format. It's a very slow, durdly creature that is inferior at the beatdown plan compared to a host of well-positioned options (notably Anafenza). So a Deathmist Raptor deck needs to be playing with inevitability as a primary selling point to thrive in this environment.
The problem is that Deathmist Raptor decks don't have inevitability in the format. Not even close. Raptor decks can't play the long game with Rally and Ramp, because exiling two permanents regardless of a counterspell and getting an indestructible creature that will kill you in at most 3 turns of attacks regardless of blocks on resolution, or winning the game basically on the spot at instant speed is better than a looping stream of 3/3 or 4/4 deathtouch beaters. Much better.
Deathmist Raptor decks have always had this problem. Back in THS-DTK/ORI Standard, those decks couldn't outgrind Elspeth or Ugin, and their long game was weaker than GR Devotion's endless stream of answer-now-or-die beaters. This was mitigated a bit during late DTK Standard because you could play Deathmist Raptor in the Elspeth deck (but at that point it was really still an Elspeth deck that just packed Deathmist Raptor to boost its game against Esper Dragons), but the dedicated Deathmist Raptor decks typically couldn't beat Elspeth + spot removal for Den Protectors trying to come through the wall of soldiers.
For a while in BFZ we thought Raptor could legitimately be a force in the format, because it actually could outgrind Dark Jeskai (the presumed grindiest deck in the format) by running them out of spot removal. Coupled with Gideon it was a pretty powerful grinding duo. But then we discovered Rally and Ulamog Ramp, and, well... see above.
Presumably, Deathmist Raptor will have a chance of being good again at the start of SOI Standard, when the Khans cards rotate out and everything gets shaken up (but notably Raptor remains). However, I don't think it'll have much of a chance at sticking around even then, because the Ulamog Ramp deck isn't going anywhere either (it's only losing Ugin, who is slowly making his way out of the deck anyway, having been found mostly inferior to other options at the "intermediate" spot in the ramp deck's payoff curve). Rally will rotate, and it's possible that the Ulamog Ramp deck is too volatile / vulnerable to being hated out (we haven't really seen the forecast dominance of that deck yet), so maybe there's a chance. But it's really not looking good. The stuff that goes over the top of it isn't going anywhere.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
I remember in post Pro Tour BFZ meta, the Rally deck haven't been recognized as a true contender. Then it starts racking up wins, and it keeps getting stronger by OGW additions. I do agree Raptor decks are neither aggressive enough or have enough threat density to deal with Eldrazi Ramp or Rally decks. Not to mention Raptor decks usually packs few interactions.
I mean, Raptor decks usually do pack interaction, but it's usually along the lines of spot removal, which aren't useful against either 4-Color Rally or GR Eldrazi.
Basically, Raptor shines when Esper Dragons or similar control decks are good. And Esper Dragons is not great right now.
Outside of the above mentioned reasons I think it's also a casualty of 4 Color Goodstuff decks being the go-to, which makes Jace into a 1st pick for the Den Protector slot in a lot of decks (and you aren't running Raptors without Den Protector, not to mention 4C makes GG harder). Because of this, I actually think there's a good chance it'll see some increased play after rotation as I expect 4C decks to go away. This will be especially true if (as is typical) there's some sort of constructed playable Eldrazi-hosing card printed in Shadows.
den protectors are an auto include in green decks anyway, so would it be possible to just throw some deathmists in, use them as a beater/removal and if you get it back yay and if not no big deal?
if they kill it or trade with something, well mission accomplished it did what any other 3 mana spell would've done?
It's also just not a very efficient beater for 3 mana. You can get higher-impact creatures at that task for the same cmc.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
Are they a good value creature in some decks? That depends. Make the rest of the deck first, then someone can answer on a case-by-case basis.
Now that Ramp and Rally are better, non-ramp G decks have to be faster. That means that Den Protector just got worse. Without Den Protector, ...
RNA Standard: Grixis Midrange, Jund Deathwhirler, Sultai Vannifar
GRN Standard: Red Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Wr Aggro, Gruul Experimental Dinosaurs, Sultai Midrange, Jeskai Midrange
Modern: Bant Spirits
Forcing a single archetype in all formats: too many colors, bad mana.
To elaborate on this a bit, the currently favored mana bases of the format are incredibly good at getting 3-4 colors of mana online, however are fairly awkward at getting double-colored mana online early enough for Deathmist to really be a strong play to begin with.
If you were to play a deck that could reasonably get Deathmist out on turn 3, you would either be forced into one of the Shards, particularly Naya, or if in 4-colors you would need almost all of your fetches to get a green source. The former is relatively simple and provides a reasonably consistent mana base, but there isn't any particular reason to go this route from where I stand as it doesn't provide you much in the way of a strong strategy. The most potent effects in Green are Den Protector and Collected Company as of right now, and going this route just doesn't give you that much more than what you have available elsewhere. The latter has the pitfall of likely being a slow, awkward, and painful mana base that would lose out on a good number of games by being tempod out or overpowered. There will be some games in said scenario where you will not have the luxury of fetching basics to cast Deathmist on turn 3, and honestly Deathmist pales in comparison to what other decks are doing (Collected Companies, Siege Rhino, casting a 5-7 cost spell with ramp, having you dead to rights in Atarka Red). Other decks geta away with playing double-mana cost spells, however this is largely due to them being late game plays as well as being in the decks "main" fetchable color (Notably Rally the Ancestors and Kalitas).
The third route is to go two colors, with the go-to of GW. You've already touched on this issue, so I'll leave it at that.
This, of course, isn't going into what you already stated as the other issues. Just an elaboration on the current mana-bases. They are great at consistently getting at least 1 mana of any given color online in the opening turns, but far less consistent at providing multiple of any given color source. To make Deathmist work, you would either need to be in an as of current completely unproven shard (Where fetching a green source is far simpler due to having more fetchlands available), have a mana-base that is too slow the party, or be in a deck that frankly doesn't work in the current meta game.
Whatever build the Raptor is going in to, aside from green, the other color must provide either evasion or disruption. More specifically when Rally decks gum up the board with Collected Company.
Unless something gets printed in SOI that just randomly hoses Ulamog Ramp, you can expect durdly strategies to be suppressed until Dragons of Tarkir rotates, assuming that the block after Shadows doesn't bring ramp spells with it.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
Ulamog Ramp will lose Ugin. Ugin is one of the biggest reasons why Deathmist isn't great right now, his -X is tough to get past. Without it Ulamog ramp needs a alternate win condition that can't be Infinite Obliterationed away.
I've seen some decks have success going a bit smaller, having a curve of Thought-Not seer and Reality smasher into Worldbreak, and finally Ulamog coupled with a light ramp base. Even if you go 4x World-breaker, 2x Atarka, 4x Ulamog, you are demanding at least two Obliterations to nullify the deck. This isn't counting the nutty 1-ofs of Kozilek and Void Winnower that show up specifically due to Obliteration. While it hurts the decks, and Ugin will be sorely missed, Obliteration isn't really an answer to the deck that it once was.
With rotation bringing a largely two-color based format, it's possible that Raptor will have a deck that can reliable cast it early. With Anafenza gone, there should also be a bit less hate in the format. What it really comes down to what the late game is for other decks in the format. If Raptor provides a stronger late game than some (even if not all) other decks, without being a dead card early, it could be good. If almost every deck is either all-in aggro, packs maindeck graveyard hate, or has an unbeatable late game (Ulamog or Rally), Raptor is bad. If there are a lot of other midrange decks, then a midrange deck can get a strong late game advantage by running Protector/Raptor.
GW or RG midrange would probably be the best options for Raptor. I know plenty of people are testing RG midrange (most likely due to Arlin Kord hype), I wonder if anyone has found Raptor to be okay there.
GW ~ Angels ~ WG
Modern:
RBW ~ Shadowmancer ~ WBR
Legacy:
BUG ~ Shadow Delver ~ GUB
There's even some resurfacing of G/W Megamorph lists, mainly replacing Roc with Avacyn.