Ashiok is very effective against any Control Deck.
Against Aggro, this is a different story. He'll basically act as a fog for 3 mana. Not that powerful.
However, what people seems to forget, is that his +2 is actually a removal/disruption ability, yes random, but still.
Ashiok is very effective against any Control Deck.
Against Aggro, this is a different story. He'll basically act as a fog for 3 mana. Not that powerful.
However, what people seems to forget, is that his +2 is actually a removal/disruption ability, yes random, but still.
To be fair... a three mana fog could be the difference between life and death. I can't tell you how many games a RDW tapped out to bring me down to zero exactly when I had a gray merchant in hand. haha
Mill is never removal. Mill is very rarely disruption. Mill is absolutely nothing until the opponent's library has 0 cards.
Ashiok is the same as any 3 mana planeswalker. He's going to hit the board running and present a clear game winning advantage if left unchecked but right now there's just a lot of ways to check him.
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Then they'll ignore Ashiok if they're smart. If they're to the point where they could reasonably finish it, there's no reason to deal with Ashiok. This being said, a removal spell would have saved you where Ashiok would not assuming that they didn't touch Ashiok at all, the way it should be. No matter which it is, it'll kill something. That saves you from 2 attacks from whatever creature. Assuming Ashiok gave you a blocker, it'd save you from just one attack, barring an extremely specific situation which requires both luck and several elements from your opponent that can't be even mildly depended upon. Anyway, still waiting.
I'd have to disagree about Ashiok being bad in aggro MU and better in control MU. I have won way more games against aggro with Ashiok than against control. Control decks can deal with Ashiok, but aggro decks only really have their creatures to rely on to kill Ashiok. You keep Ashiok up long enough with the board clear he will keep +2'ing out of range for aggro decks and then you start stealing stuff you exiled. Once that happens they are really low on creature threats and likely won't have blockers available to block their stolen creatures. I am perfectly fine with aggro decks focusing on killing Ashiok instead of me too.
Against control, Ashiok can usually get 2-3 activations before it sees some sort of removal; and that's assuming Ashiok doesn't get countered as well. With all the lands that control decks play and 3-of and 4-of cards, exiling something important that they won't see again in that game is not likely. Against control I would rather play Jace, Memory Adept since his clock is faster. I keep Ashiok in against control still for his +2 and ulti (Ashiok +2 till ulti after a few Jace, MA mills and if they didn't mill Elixir by then it would make it useless when they do go play it).
So as almost any PW, it they are not answered to they will win the game. I love playing Ashiok against all decks.
As for the deck I play him in: Grixis Walkers.
"You keep ashiok up long enough". This is the first fault and its either the fault of you or the aggro player. If its you, its for thinking that if you survive to that point, the aggro player was dead anyway. If its the aggro player, its their fault for paying too much attention to Ashiok. By default, the best thing for an aggro player to do is to ignore ashiok and keep killing you while basking in their free swings. And that represents by and large what they should be doing. Yes, if you keep it up long enough with the board clear... Wait, we're playing aggro, right? We're control. If we keep the board clear without being in burn range, that = we've won the game. So what you're saying is back to the usual drill. Ashiok is good at helping us stabilize because we win the game when we've won the game.
But while we're at it, give us a hypothetical. When is Ashiok better against aggro than a blocker or a removal spell? When will Ashiok swing the match? And how often will this scenario happen vs the reverse?
"You keep ashiok up long enough". This is the first fault and its either the fault of you or the aggro player. If its you, its for thinking that if you survive to that point, the aggro player was dead anyway. If its the aggro player, its their fault for paying too much attention to Ashiok. By default, the best thing for an aggro player to do is to ignore ashiok and keep killing you while basking in their free swings. And that represents by and large what they should be doing. Yes, if you keep it up long enough with the board clear... Wait, we're playing aggro, right? We're control. If we keep the board clear without being in burn range, that = we've won the game. So what you're saying is back to the usual drill. Ashiok is good at helping us stabilize because we win the game when we've won the game.
But while we're at it, give us a hypothetical. When is Ashiok better against aggro than a blocker or a removal spell? When will Ashiok swing the match? And how often will this scenario happen vs the reverse?
"When is Ashiok better against aggro than a blocker or a removal spell?" Depends on what removal spell. Not all removal spells are universally good across all matches. That's why ashiok is decent game 1 because it at least has an impact on a large range of game types.
You sure like trying to change the subject, now don't you? First you assert Ashiok's strength vs aggro as a stabilizer agent. To defend it, you cited it being pivotal against RDW on the draw where a removal or blocker would not have sufficed as well as the chances of it vs the average. I've asked you more than once for even a mild description of this and its been continually ignored or skimmed over but I assume the former since you responded to the posts. Now you're trying to lean back on talking about other matchups. Finish what you've started before trying to begin something new. Saying that Ashiok is decent game 1 due to affecting a range of game types has no hold on its validity in the aggro matchup. Of course, your removal suit is about the worst possible arrangement in the GR monsters matchup which you note to be a commonality for you. So I suppose your outlook of comparison in that sense isn't much a surprise. Removal is not so good against control if it isn't hero's downfall. That point is clear. So let's get back to the first and biggest point of contention. How is Ashiok an amazing stabilizer agent? Because if it is, it'd be plenty good. My argument is that it is not. So instead of asserting that you think it is over and over, isn't it about time you backed it up? An in game example. A hypothetical. A theory. Something?
Ashiok very rarely dies to creatures at least until I start taking creatures from my opponent. They have so much loyalty and they are almost always in a all removal deck. Either you play them turn three or you wait until you are in control of the game and play him with protection up.
I do not even consider the mill relevant the vast majority of the time.. I want to steal creatures or exile hands.
UB can't kill enchantments and instantly loses to a resolved god and underworld connections I wish I had the answer to this huge problem.
3 Ratchet Bomb, Shouta Yasooka style. Doesn't kill Gods but kills Connections, Tokens, mass mana dorks, whatever.
If you desperately need to kill a God you have Gild but it mostly sucks ass as you'd have to be facing a strong board, then tap 4 Mana plop it out.
If you want to kill Gods your best answers are actually Syncopate and Nullify (or Essence Scatter if you can't hit UU on T2). Note that Nullify kills both Connections/every God.
On topic I'm a pretty big fan of Ashiok. It's a threat in most matchups, and plays well with removal or a good 2 drop blocker (Frostburn Weird in Grixis, Sylvan Caryatid in BUG, Omenspeaker/Returned Phalanx in UB). T3 Ashiok on the play is pretty legit, but on the draw you generally have to secure the board first. In a proper UBx Control deck that doesn't seem too hard though.
Meta consideration wise I've seen T3 Ashiok -> exile Blood Baron/Stormbreath -> T4 -5 it and just throw out a 5-drop, which is pretty insane. Against UWx Ashiok eats a premium removal spell, so deck building wise you have to consider it just as another threat and build so that you have some powerful things to tax Detention Sphere (not just Ashiok). Jace AoT, Ashiok, Elspeth, Ral Zarek, etc. Note that Ashiok + Jace AoT is a very legitimate (yet obvious) pairing, as Jace protects Ashiok with +1 (against small fliers, for instance) while Ashiok -Xs and puts up blockers. Then you just start -2'ing Jace and +'ing Ashiok again.
I started with 4 copies of Ashiok in most test builds, but I've settled on 2-3 as correct. 4 lets you T3 it the most but it's not great in multiples. The legendary 3 Ashiok hand is pretty worthless, as you need removal to clear the way for him to get started.
Wait, we're playing aggro, right? We're control. If we keep the board clear without being in burn range, that = we've won the game.
That may be true, but you still have to actually win the game. Ashiok can start off as a stabilizer by either making blockers or soaking up damage, and once you've survived to the "win the game" part you can start getting aggressive with it to seal the deal. Maybe it's not quite as effective against aggro as another removal spell, but no amount of removal in those spots can function as a win condition.
It makes blockers on turn 4 at earliest and generally will not soak up damage vs aggro as aggro will most often aim to ignore it and beside some very specific cases, they'll opt to just hit you instead because if they're moving at the pace where they should hit Ashiok, they're almost certainly losing. And I was mostly talking to the guy who was mainboarding Ashiok in MBD and claiming it as a stabilizer. Somehow I don't think MBD is worried about needing another win condition. UB or esper control is another matter of creature entirely. My point is that MBD is most vulnerable in about the first 4 turns unless you fully plan to grind them out. And that Ashiok is not a good stabilizing agent. A better win condition than removal, sure. But they they're not lacking that in any way, shape, or form. There are merits to the card. Being a stabilizer against aggro is not one of them due to how slowly and not surely it does that.
What's amusing is how it keeps being said that it's decent with this and that, maybe it's the other way around, and the good cards make this bad card decent? That said, why would any deck want to play a card that requires a lot of other stuff to happen for it to "potentially" be good, seems very counter-productive to actually advancing you to your end game phase. If I want to play a card like that, I want the card to be "potentially" winning the game, like a Splinter Twin and Deceiver Exarch type situation.
Yep. I picked up some Jace AOT when it was at 9 and was totally happy to do it. I know the feel. And Ashiok could possibly make such a resurgence. It is fairly efficient and the devotion tick up is pretty good while having sort of the ability to affect the board, albeit a delayed one. I just don't feel it'll be doing anything awesome of the sort right now in MBD. I suppose it can tack on in a control build but at the moment, just not seeing it. And even then, it isn't saving you right away. I'd think you'd have to have some amazing way to protect it... in which case my eyes flitter towards Kiora as the better one to put your energy towards saving should the meta shift in such a way that it would be reasonable to do consistently.
The number of answers to ashiok being milled is pretty irrelevant as you could just as easily mill so they topdeck the answer. Probability-wise, there's no difference barring a scry that they kept (and thus assume that they wanted to draw next) or them putting it there via a card that's not really present in standard (tutor to top of library). What is relevant is when you mill out elspeth and aetherling in UW, basically telling them that they're borderline not going to win without killing Ashiok and playing elixir 53 minus connections activations turns mill.
The mill can be potentially reducing the answers though, I mean imagine I play Ashiok and +2 revealing 3 heroes downfall now of course they have a chance to draw the 4th in the deck if they are playing 4 but the chance is reduced period. If their deck has 12 or more answers to a planeswalker like 4 detention sphere 4 dreadbore 4 heroes downfall then sure I barely reduced their chance with that mill. It is not true card advantage to mill but if you hit the right cards it does change the composition of the deck somewhat.
This discussion about Ashiok vs Aggro seems familiar, I remember it being the main argument as to why he is bad before rotation actually kicked in. Once it did, I recall a number of Esper decks packing him and putting Esper near the top of the format despite the amount of aggro that existed at the time... Which leads me to think that nobody actually understands exactly WHY Ashiok fell out of favor for Esper, because it was not exactly Aggro...
Sigh. In hindsight, that's correct but only when you recalculate. However, barring deck manipulation or something like an opposing courser of kruphix giving you that information, that notion is completely wrong. Let me put it like this. Let's say I'm playing against aggro and I play tome scour. Let's say I milled out 3 ash zealots. Did I just decrease their attacking power? No I didn't. Yes, their statistical chance of drawing a creature just dropped but only after the fact. Its not so before you did it, when you're actually making the decision. You don't know where the answers are in the deck and there is just as much a chance of them being the card on top (the card they'd normally draw next) as it is to be the 4th card down (the card they'll draw after the +2 with Ashiok). You might get lucky. But you have just as much a chance to be unlucky in that same respect. So let's put it like this. After the fact is irrelevant as its already done. Saying that its worked before and has been nice is not taking into account that at the point that it actually happened, nothing was truly changed in terms of chance. Its like saying "I play tome scour in my mono blue devotion vs UW control and its a boss. I can mill out out all 4 of their supreme verdicts and their elspeth. Then they totally have trouble answering me anymore." But this is ridiculous. Yes, it can happen but if you only draw conclusions after the fact based on a small sample and letting good feeling take over the realistic statistics, you'll end up with skewed thoughts like that. And from a before the fact perspective, the chances are that there was an answer 4 cards down hasn't changed. Maybe I should put it like this.
Without ashiok is first. With ashiok is second. I'm referring to card positions in the deck here.
1/4
2/7
3/10
4/13
5/16
Are the chances to have an answer in card positions 1-5 greater, less than, or equal to the chances of having an answer in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16?
Sigh. In hindsight, that's correct but only when you recalculate. However, barring deck manipulation or something like an opposing courser of kruphix giving you that information, that notion is completely wrong. Let me put it like this. Let's say I'm playing against aggro and I play tome scour. Let's say I milled out 3 ash zealots. Did I just decrease their attacking power? No I didn't. Yes, their statistical chance of drawing a creature just dropped but only after the fact. Its not so before you did it, when you're actually making the decision. You don't know where the answers are in the deck and there is just as much a chance of them being the card on top (the card they'd normally draw next) as it is to be the 4th card down (the card they'll draw after the +2 with Ashiok). You might get lucky. But you have just as much a chance to be unlucky in that same respect. So let's put it like this. After the fact is irrelevant as its already done. Saying that its worked before and has been nice is not taking into account that at the point that it actually happened, nothing was truly changed in terms of chance. Its like saying "I play tome scour in my mono blue devotion vs UW control and its a boss. I can mill out out all 4 of their supreme verdicts and their elspeth. Then they totally have trouble answering me anymore." But this is ridiculous. Yes, it can happen but if you only draw conclusions after the fact based on a small sample and letting good feeling take over the realistic statistics, you'll end up with skewed thoughts like that. And from a before the fact perspective, the chances are that there was an answer 4 cards down hasn't changed. Maybe I should put it like this.
Without ashiok is first. With ashiok is second. I'm referring to card positions in the deck here.
1/4
2/7
3/10
4/13
5/16
Are the chances to have an answer in card positions 1-5 greater, less than, or equal to the chances of having an answer in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16?
Most decks (even RDW) use deck manipulation now with scrylands.
Regardless... I think most people get "stuck" on the random aspect of Ashiok. Yes. It can just as easily mill away three land as three threats. You can not count Ashiok as the same as "removal" or threat remover. What it does; however, is statistically lower their chance to draw answers later in game. This plays a major role when the game has stalled and you are both in "top decking" situations. The % chance of ashiok milling a threat you need will always be higher than your % chance to draw it (without casting spells to draw additional cards). And that's what makes Ashiok good.
So you need 3 or 4 activations for it to be good? Aggro kills you before then, Midrange laughs at your 3-mana Fog, and Control grudgingly uses a removal spell. Yeah it's best against control, like all planeswalkers, but it's not that good.
So you need 3 or 4 activations for it to be good? Aggro kills you before then, Midrange laughs at your 3-mana Fog, and Control grudgingly uses a removal spell. Yeah it's best against control, like all planeswalkers, but it's not that good.
If the player had a very specific play in mind where they need the card they just scryed to their top next draw and you mill it that is the only time you have marginally disrupted them, which isn't a real answer. They have more cards and different lines of play to draw into, or they already had a good play in hand they just wanted redundancy or more answers. A 3 mana enchantment that says 'your opponent can't scry' is still wildly unplayable, and ashiok's +2 isn't even that reliable. Even if you hit no lands when you mill you have only increased their odds of drawing a land by such a fractionally small amount as to not be worth discussing as a positive effect. Milling is not anything until an opponent has 0 cards in library. Just play ashiok like his +2 has no other text beside it at all.
Ashiok's +2 is good because it's a +2. Getting 2 loyalty outpaces a lot of early plays right now because there aren't a ton of weenie or rush or burn style decks in the meta. An elvish mystic or a mutavault isn't getting him off the field and anything bigger than that comes out a turn later when you can untap and deal with it with the other cards in your hand. The problem is that no one needs to deal with it until it either approaches ultimate or flips a castable creature and everyone can see then when it's time to expend a hero's downfall or detention sphere or direct attack damage from your life to ashiok. And it's hard to have the counterspell or kill spell up every time to prevent it when you already used 3 mana and a card playing ashiok, until he either -Xs or -10s he hasn't done anything worth a card. The window to get out of control with ashiok is very small in the grand scheme of things, and he's really really bad to draw into when you're already behind or out of answers. So, for now, he gets no love.
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If the player had a very specific play in mind where they need the card they just scryed to their top next draw and you mill it that is the only time you have marginally disrupted them, which isn't a real answer. They have more cards and different lines of play to draw into, or they already had a good play in hand they just wanted redundancy or more answers. A 3 mana enchantment that says 'your opponent can't scry' is still wildly unplayable, and ashiok's +2 isn't even that reliable. Even if you hit no lands when you mill you have only increased their odds of drawing a land by such a fractionally small amount as to not be worth discussing as a positive effect. Milling is not anything until an opponent has 0 cards in library. Just play ashiok like his +2 has no other text beside it at all.
Ashiok's +2 is good because it's a +2. Getting 2 loyalty outpaces a lot of early plays right now because there aren't a ton of weenie or rush or burn style decks in the meta. An elvish mystic or a mutavault isn't getting him off the field and anything bigger than that comes out a turn later when you can untap and deal with it with the other cards in your hand. The problem is that no one needs to deal with it until it either approaches ultimate or flips a castable creature and everyone can see then when it's time to expend a hero's downfall or detention sphere or direct attack damage from your life to ashiok. And it's hard to have the counterspell or kill spell up every time to prevent it when you already used 3 mana and a card playing ashiok, until he either -Xs or -10s he hasn't done anything worth a card. The window to get out of control with ashiok is very small in the grand scheme of things, and he's really really bad to draw into when you're already behind or out of answers. So, for now, he gets no love.
I think "on paper" this is largely true. Ashiok by design appears to be a terrible card that does not do much.
However in practice, I've found it not to be the case.
Every card Ashiok takes away from your opponents deck will have a statistical impact on the rest of the game.
From my experience, Ashiok is non-replaceable.
I think the major reason why no one likes ashiok is alot simpler than people are trying to make it out to be.
No one likes mill. EVER. Cards with mill components have never been popular, even if they are playable.
But you have just as good odds as giving them more gas as you do of giving them more blanks, unless you mill every single card in their library. That's why mill does nothing.
Nobody likes Ashiok because ASHIOK IS BAD. Water finds it's level. People will play Frostburn Weird if it shows up and produces.
But you have just as good odds as giving them more gas as you do of giving them more blanks, unless you mill every single card in their library. That's why mill does nothing.
Nobody likes Ashiok because ASHIOK IS BAD. Water finds it's level. People will play Frostburn Weird if it shows up and produces.
Your claim is inaccurate. You do not have just as good odds as giving them more gas as you do of giving them more blanks.
That's how it may "feel" at times... however thats not statics works.
In order for the above claim to be true, the person you're milling would have to have an equal chance of of "drawing blanks" as "drawing gas". And no one builds a deck where there is a 50% chance that every card you draw is a blank.
Right, the ratio of gas to blanks remains constant over a large sample size, blah blah blah.
Let me try this another way.
In scenario 1, you do not use the +2. Now, they get to draw and use the three cards you did not exile, but they cannot use the three cards left on top of their library at the end of the game.
In scenario 2, you use the +2. Now they draw these three cards and have them in their hand. However, they do not get to draw the three cards you exiled.
What is the difference in potential card quality among the two groups of three cards?
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Against Aggro, this is a different story. He'll basically act as a fog for 3 mana. Not that powerful.
However, what people seems to forget, is that his +2 is actually a removal/disruption ability, yes random, but still.
To be fair... a three mana fog could be the difference between life and death. I can't tell you how many games a RDW tapped out to bring me down to zero exactly when I had a gray merchant in hand. haha
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Ashiok is the same as any 3 mana planeswalker. He's going to hit the board running and present a clear game winning advantage if left unchecked but right now there's just a lot of ways to check him.
Against control, Ashiok can usually get 2-3 activations before it sees some sort of removal; and that's assuming Ashiok doesn't get countered as well. With all the lands that control decks play and 3-of and 4-of cards, exiling something important that they won't see again in that game is not likely. Against control I would rather play Jace, Memory Adept since his clock is faster. I keep Ashiok in against control still for his +2 and ulti (Ashiok +2 till ulti after a few Jace, MA mills and if they didn't mill Elixir by then it would make it useless when they do go play it).
So as almost any PW, it they are not answered to they will win the game. I love playing Ashiok against all decks.
As for the deck I play him in: Grixis Walkers.
But while we're at it, give us a hypothetical. When is Ashiok better against aggro than a blocker or a removal spell? When will Ashiok swing the match? And how often will this scenario happen vs the reverse?
"When is Ashiok better against aggro than a blocker or a removal spell?" Depends on what removal spell. Not all removal spells are universally good across all matches. That's why ashiok is decent game 1 because it at least has an impact on a large range of game types.
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3 Ratchet Bomb, Shouta Yasooka style. Doesn't kill Gods but kills Connections, Tokens, mass mana dorks, whatever.
If you desperately need to kill a God you have Gild but it mostly sucks ass as you'd have to be facing a strong board, then tap 4 Mana plop it out.
If you want to kill Gods your best answers are actually Syncopate and Nullify (or Essence Scatter if you can't hit UU on T2). Note that Nullify kills both Connections/every God.
On topic I'm a pretty big fan of Ashiok. It's a threat in most matchups, and plays well with removal or a good 2 drop blocker (Frostburn Weird in Grixis, Sylvan Caryatid in BUG, Omenspeaker/Returned Phalanx in UB). T3 Ashiok on the play is pretty legit, but on the draw you generally have to secure the board first. In a proper UBx Control deck that doesn't seem too hard though.
Meta consideration wise I've seen T3 Ashiok -> exile Blood Baron/Stormbreath -> T4 -5 it and just throw out a 5-drop, which is pretty insane. Against UWx Ashiok eats a premium removal spell, so deck building wise you have to consider it just as another threat and build so that you have some powerful things to tax Detention Sphere (not just Ashiok). Jace AoT, Ashiok, Elspeth, Ral Zarek, etc. Note that Ashiok + Jace AoT is a very legitimate (yet obvious) pairing, as Jace protects Ashiok with +1 (against small fliers, for instance) while Ashiok -Xs and puts up blockers. Then you just start -2'ing Jace and +'ing Ashiok again.
I started with 4 copies of Ashiok in most test builds, but I've settled on 2-3 as correct. 4 lets you T3 it the most but it's not great in multiples. The legendary 3 Ashiok hand is pretty worthless, as you need removal to clear the way for him to get started.
That may be true, but you still have to actually win the game. Ashiok can start off as a stabilizer by either making blockers or soaking up damage, and once you've survived to the "win the game" part you can start getting aggressive with it to seal the deal. Maybe it's not quite as effective against aggro as another removal spell, but no amount of removal in those spots can function as a win condition.
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The mill can be potentially reducing the answers though, I mean imagine I play Ashiok and +2 revealing 3 heroes downfall now of course they have a chance to draw the 4th in the deck if they are playing 4 but the chance is reduced period. If their deck has 12 or more answers to a planeswalker like 4 detention sphere 4 dreadbore 4 heroes downfall then sure I barely reduced their chance with that mill. It is not true card advantage to mill but if you hit the right cards it does change the composition of the deck somewhat.
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Without ashiok is first. With ashiok is second. I'm referring to card positions in the deck here.
1/4
2/7
3/10
4/13
5/16
Are the chances to have an answer in card positions 1-5 greater, less than, or equal to the chances of having an answer in card positions 4, 7, 10, 13, and 16?
Most decks (even RDW) use deck manipulation now with scrylands.
Regardless... I think most people get "stuck" on the random aspect of Ashiok. Yes. It can just as easily mill away three land as three threats. You can not count Ashiok as the same as "removal" or threat remover. What it does; however, is statistically lower their chance to draw answers later in game. This plays a major role when the game has stalled and you are both in "top decking" situations. The % chance of ashiok milling a threat you need will always be higher than your % chance to draw it (without casting spells to draw additional cards). And that's what makes Ashiok good.
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Not necessarily.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
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Ashiok's +2 is good because it's a +2. Getting 2 loyalty outpaces a lot of early plays right now because there aren't a ton of weenie or rush or burn style decks in the meta. An elvish mystic or a mutavault isn't getting him off the field and anything bigger than that comes out a turn later when you can untap and deal with it with the other cards in your hand. The problem is that no one needs to deal with it until it either approaches ultimate or flips a castable creature and everyone can see then when it's time to expend a hero's downfall or detention sphere or direct attack damage from your life to ashiok. And it's hard to have the counterspell or kill spell up every time to prevent it when you already used 3 mana and a card playing ashiok, until he either -Xs or -10s he hasn't done anything worth a card. The window to get out of control with ashiok is very small in the grand scheme of things, and he's really really bad to draw into when you're already behind or out of answers. So, for now, he gets no love.
I think "on paper" this is largely true. Ashiok by design appears to be a terrible card that does not do much.
However in practice, I've found it not to be the case.
Every card Ashiok takes away from your opponents deck will have a statistical impact on the rest of the game.
From my experience, Ashiok is non-replaceable.
I think the major reason why no one likes ashiok is alot simpler than people are trying to make it out to be.
No one likes mill. EVER. Cards with mill components have never been popular, even if they are playable.
T
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
Nobody likes Ashiok because ASHIOK IS BAD. Water finds it's level. People will play Frostburn Weird if it shows up and produces.
Your claim is inaccurate. You do not have just as good odds as giving them more gas as you do of giving them more blanks.
That's how it may "feel" at times... however thats not statics works.
In order for the above claim to be true, the person you're milling would have to have an equal chance of of "drawing blanks" as "drawing gas". And no one builds a deck where there is a 50% chance that every card you draw is a blank.
Twitter: twitter.com/axmanonline
Stream: twitch.tv/axman
Current Decks
Modern: Affinity
Standard: BW Control
Legacy: Death and Taxes :symw::symr:
Vintage: NA
Let me try this another way.
In scenario 1, you do not use the +2. Now, they get to draw and use the three cards you did not exile, but they cannot use the three cards left on top of their library at the end of the game.
In scenario 2, you use the +2. Now they draw these three cards and have them in their hand. However, they do not get to draw the three cards you exiled.
What is the difference in potential card quality among the two groups of three cards?