I would not say Dredge is a good matchup (didn't play much against living end). There is a lot of variance, but the good-to-strong dredge hands absolutely obliterate us. 4 relics is not 1 too many if you're ditching the counterspells. I played 4 against storm and it felt excellent. I wasn't even bothered by drawing extra copies because they work reasonably well in multiples, and can cantrip once you don't need it anymore.
All your criticism towards needle is that you need to know the card to name, basically. Yes, you do. Against e-tron you name karn (or ballista, depending if opponent has boatloads of mana), against normal tron you probably name o-stone, then ugin for the other copies. Against affinity you will usually have an opportunity to choose what to name. You can name ravager in the dark to avoid the opponent sacrificing the artifacts. Our deck is NOT good against planeswalkers if they generate tokens, especially Gideon Ally of Zendikar. Gideon of the Trials is also bothersome.
My sideboard suggestion was for a fetch/shock manabase. If you're playing caverns and territories I would move away from natural state and play 2 x echoing truths (to deal with the problematic ensnaring bridge and other stuff) and something else in the last slot, though not sure what it would be.
I mean, look at the examples you gave where dismember is good: storm and affinity. I strongly disagree given the sideboard I presented to you. We have 7 cards against affinity (needles and states) and 4 against storm (relic of progenitus). Storm plays lots of cantrips, do you really believe killing one of their cost-reduction creatures is going to stall their gameplan that much? They will probably either find another one or combo without it. Dismember is NOT a card that I'm excited to have against storm. I can see counterspells being good here, but usually relic + some cursecatchers is enough for me. My original U/G list plays 4 cursecatchers along with vials and speakers, so I think that about covers it. If you're playing echoing truth you can bring one from the sideboard to deal with a creature or, more likely, with a goblin onslaugh. I remember that my record against storm was pretty good despite zero dismembers main or in the side, relic did all the work (important to point out that we are a huge underdog in game 1).
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I'd say Dredge is a good matchup. I've had tons of success against it, and while UG figures to be a tad weaker because of the lack of Master of Waves (which is a house in the matchup), you still have access to pressure and 3-4 Relics. As for Dismember... don't forget Eldrazi and Company decks when evaluating the card. It's quite good against both.
As for the lack of counterspells... I don't agree with it at all. UG is already giving up points versus mono-U against Burn and control decks thanks to its lesser comeback ability. No countermagic would just exacerbate that issue. Dispel and Negate are clean, efficient answers to pretty much every card you care about in those matchups, and they do well elsewhere as a bonus. Granted, UG can't run as many as mono-U because it needs to make room for Natural State (or an equivalent), but cutting the countermagic is definitely not correct.
Finally got some good games in with UG last night. 4 rounds, 3-1.
Round 1 didn't count, the deck was some kind of janky combo ping deck with Isochron Scepter. 2-0
Round 2 was Bant Eldrazi. 2-0
I was able to beat him through a board of Eldrazi Displacer, Engineered Explosives on 2, and Drowner of Hope, with 6 lands. I can't recount the entire sequences of events, but let's just say that having 2 1-drops with Merrow Reejeray and being able to selectively play out threats was huge. Also, don't underestimate the value of choosing when to play a Merfolk to force them to tap EE, at which point they either blow it up at your convenience or they allow you to possibly resolve lethal damage. Plus, since Merrow triggers on cast, the 2-drop you cast will enter the battlefield after EE resolves. The real hero, however, was Harbinger of the Tides.
Round 3, Infect 1-2
I have not played this match in ages and made a ton of mistakes, both plays and sideboarding. This is a match where Dispel is far more valuable than removal and it also makes a good case for 4 Cursecatcher. If this deck is back, and competitive, it will resolve certain deck building decisions.
Round 4 Blue Moon 2-0 Blood Moon was annoying, but it doesn't come out before turn 3, so play your G Merfolk ASAP and keep Vial hands or hands with artifact destruction after sideboard. Obviously, watch out for Anger of the Gods. Kopala was a beast here because it ate up his mana, breaking his ability to remove as efficiently as I cast, convincing me that that is the card I want against mid-range and control decks.
Deck was very aggressive, draw was great, you could play patiently and then be explosive in a single turn.
Lackluster cards:
- Lead the Stampede was meh, but largely because the 8 cantrips in the deck and the high density of creatures made me feel like refilling was unnecessary, so having it in hand was never as good as casting a creature. It felt like if you hit that point it was too late. UU didn't need it and frankly UG needs it even less.
Changes:
- Removing Lead creates two slots. I am honestly not sure if that should be 1) Phantasmal Image, 2) removal, 3) counterspell, or 4) back to 4 Cursecatcher.
As a note on removal, given the tempo change of the deck, I am far more in favor of Vapor Snag than I have been in a long time. Cheap to cast, doesn't hurt us unless we target our own creature, allows us to target our own creature, hurts our opponent. Given the different level of aggression, I am not feeling the need for the kill spell as much as I am the need for the tempo blowout.
I could see dropping Kopala from the main and running the one in the sideboard, like we used to do with Kira, and then go to a 3rd Cursecatcher, but that still leaves me with 2 slots and 4 options: 2 Phantasmal Image, 1/1 Cursecatcher/Phantasmal Image 2 Vapor Snag, 2 Spell Pierce.
If the new plan for this deck is to go faster, then I feel phantasmal image may be a good add, maybe a two of or more mainboard. The ability to copy lords, merfolk branchwalkers and silvergill adepts for both power on board and card advantage, cursecatcher to restrict our opponent, etc, is pretty good right now, and there's very little that kills image that wouldn't kill anything on our board anyways (i.e. abrupt decay, fatal push, terminate, etc.) Plus Kopala, Warden of Waves plays nice with it.
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"I hope to have such a death—lying in triumph upon the broken bodies of those who slew me."
—Radha, Keldon warlord
Yeah, I'm prolly much more on the removal or Phantasmal Image plan filling out the maindeck, though against CoCo and Elves, I think sideboard you have to have counterspells in enough density.
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Standard
Tempo Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Agreed, even in UG, Dredge feels like a positive match up (certainly not a bad one anyway). Of course, part of that is clinching games 2-3 with a bunch of Relic, so I think 3-4 is great for that match up, though note Dredge isn't seeing a ton of play these days.
Yeah, permission is great as a sideboard option in Merfolk. Sometimes you get out turn 1 vial and can hold up a negate or dispel pretty much the entire game. Other times you curve out for the first 2-3 turns and then can hold up permission after that. While sometimes you find yourself in awkward spots or making tough choices, Merfolk is generally pretty well positioned to take advantage of permission in the games where you need it. Vs combo decks in particularly, you don't even need to put on that much pressure to close out the game if you're holding up permission. A couple early creatures will do it.
Dismember is legit good against a lot of decks:
-Storm: Killing their creatures is a huge set back for them. Sure, they MIGHT just go on toe play another creature, but even if they do, that usually buys you a turn, and if they don't, you've often bought yourself a couple of turns, which is huge in that match up.
-BGx and Death's Shadow: I don't know about other folks, but I still struggle against an opponent dropping a turn 2 Taramogoyf or Tasigur backed up by removal and discard. Killing that threat buys a lot of time to build up a board state and overpower them.
-CoCo: The CoCo match up is like 90% about killing their key creature before they combo off since you're going to tend to win the creature game. Dismember is awesome here.
-Eldrazi: Dismembering a TKS is huge in this match-up, and I am fine forcing them to crack a Walking Ballista before they can build it up. And sometimes you just need to kill their Reality Shaper, even if it means discarding a card.
-Affinity: Master of Etherium, Signal Pest, and Overseer are all great targets, as is any creature that is swinging for 8+ damage in the air with a Cranial Plating. I generally find Dismember buys me a turn in this match up, which is what you desperately need to turn the tables on them.
-Any go wide creature deck: Whether Humans, Merfolk, Hatebears, or Spirits you can generally find a high value target that can help swing the game in your favor.
Yeah, right now I would have no problem going to 4 Dispel and drop a Relic of Progenitus because Dredge essentially isn't a deck right now. 4 Dispel, 2 Disdainful Stroke basically shuts them out of their keys. Spell Pierce is nowhere near good enough right now.
I'm not sold on Dismember, but that's because I think we need time and a life total more than we need actually killing an opposing creature.
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Standard
Tempo Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Ross Merriam on SCG Premium, pretty sure he didn't mulligan nearly often enough. I also very much do not like Copter in UG, or Spell Pierce. He clearly did not get the deck.
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Standard
Tempo Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
I run Copter in UG and have been pretty happy with it. It smooths out draws and is a decent beater, so doesn't feel like it really slows down your clock. I mainly see it as a hedge against sweepers and mana-flood or screw though. Not a fan of Spell Piece right now, however.
So, with a higher creature count as well as creatures that are more powerful on their own, could merfolk be considered "Zoo"ish? Both decks play aggressive creatures but zoo also plays a lot of removal. If thats what this deck is becoming, then removal is certainly more valuable than counters maindeck.
It's still a tempo or "aggro control" deck, since it makes use of multiple draw spells and some countermagic and removal largely for disruption, albeit it is more aggro than it was in UU because now it has a 2/2 1 drop and 3/2 2 drop with a kind of scry. That is really the main change, and it changes the aggression, but not really the style of play, except that we can make even more use of Merrow and keep our curve lower. Unlike aggro, Merfolk still interacts with the opponent.
tl;dr
Not Zoo.
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Standard
Tempo Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
It's still a tempo or "aggro control" deck, since it makes use of multiple draw spells and some countermagic and removal largely for disruption, albeit it is more aggro than it was in UU because now it has a 2/2 1 drop and 3/2 2 drop with a kind of scry. That is really the main change, and it changes the aggression, but not really the style of play, except that we can make even more use of Merrow and keep our curve lower. Unlike aggro, Merfolk still interacts with the opponent.
tl;dr
Not Zoo.
Ok well said. I guess we do use removal differently. Thanks to islandwalk we attack through blockers and keep removal for important threats, while normal aggro needs to clear a path for attacks. I do like counters since they can answer such a broad sphere of problems and give us game preboard vs combo but if others are suggesting going counterless, then maybe I need to adjust lol
I would take the advice to cut countermagic with a grain of salt. UG is not so different from mono-U Merfolk, and countermagic is quite good in the latter.
So far, results have been good. I played 10 matches with this configuration, to a 7-3 record. Lost 1-2 to only one real deck (a death's shadow/tarmogoyf/traverse the ulvenwald jund deck), because I sideboarded incorrectly and forgot to bring in some needles to face lili of the veil. Also lost 0-2 to a madcap experiment platinum angel deck. These two losses made me cut phantasmal image mainboard (it was not being good), and try the dismembers everyone has been suggesting. The final loss was a 1-2 record against a bad land destruction deck, because he found the firespouts in the most important turn in one game and I got stuck on one land in the other game, not drawing lands for multiple turns in a row. I defeated storm, eldrazi and taxes, goryo's gifts, scapeshift, R/G tron, rat moon and B/W death and taxes.
Important observations:
- Manabase is great, both colorwise and countwise. I would strongly suggest everyone try 18 lands with the split I used above. Initially I wanted to play with 22 lands because I was afraid of mulligan into oblivion. However, since I accepted the fact that I will have to mulligan some no-landers and one-landers, the deck has been perfoming incredibly well. I didn't test yavimaya coasts as ketoglutarate suggests, so I don't know how good they are. Believe it or not, I have yet to get color screwed despite the 4 mutavaults main (which have been excellent). The split with four different fetchlands is to combat very corner case scenarios where opponent pithing needles a random fetchland or surgical extracts a fetch with you having another in hand or something like that. If you can have 4 different fetches, do it, if you can't, it is not a big deal.
- Phantasmal image has been bad. Aside from the terrible nonbo that it is with silvergill adept and merrow reejerey, it is rare that it gets to be decisive. It is also not out of question that the opponent can kill it without a removal spell. Kessig Wolf Run and Walking Ballista are cards that kill image with ease, where they wouldn't do it with other merfolk. I've exchanged the image for dismembers due to suggestions made here, and still haven't put enough games with it to know if it is good. So far it hasn't been crucial, just ok, but I didn't play matchups where it would have matter that much. I still didn't test pongify as some suggested.
- I love the current sideboard configuration. I stand by my initial assessment that counterspells are not needed, and even bad. However, I decided to make an exception for dispel due to the fact that it covers some matchups that became a bit rough. Namely: infect, burn and jeskai/uw control decks. In that sense, I started to learn the importance of having dispel against control decks that pile up lots of removal. I actually didn't play against infect or burn, but I had absolutely no answer to these decks and dispel did the trick. Finally, I don't play kira or kopala to keep the mana curve low, so I needed the extra protection from dispel. I recommend 4 relic for sure. It is amazing in the matchups that you need it. 4 needles and 4 states is a bit experimental, but I'm sure my sideboard will end up with some number of those cards. Needle was absolutely MVP in a matchup against a death and taxes deck where I named Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. It is tricky to know when to side it in though, and I'm not sure if 4 is the correct number, maybe 3 would be enough. Natural state also didn't have an opportunity to shine, mainly because I didn't play against the decks where I wanted it: affinity, thopter foundry, various tezzerets decks, lantern control and other ensnaring bridge decks. I gave some though in bringing state against a rat moon opponent, but it felt very unnecessary, despite losing one game to a blood moon. I just fecthed islands the other two games and won. I think 4 natural states here is also a big number, probably should go down to 3, opening up 2 slots if you add the needle reduction. That said, I love the current choice of cards. I didn't incorporate my own suggestion of having master of waves on the sideboard because I'm playing with 18 lands, not 19, and I think that is too low for master.
- I strongly recommend keeping the cursecatcher count at 4. The card has been clutch in some crucial matchups, and the higher number increases our chances of a turn 1 play. Despite my initial grudge against harbinger, the card has been alright. To be frank, there are a tad too many matchups where it is just a 2/2 for 2, but I'm learning to live with that. If rivals prints some good interactive merfolk for 2, I would consider cutting the harbinger. I also may have not played enough matchups to appreciate where harbinger is good. The rest of the core of the deck feels excellent. The low land count coupled with the lower curve makes the deck more aggressive and incisive, better at goldfishing the turn 4 kills and better at keeping an aggressive pace from the get go.
- Last but not least, I will say it now: initially I thought this deck and the monoblue version were different takes on the same theme with different strengths and weaknesses without a clear version being better than the other. I still think they are slightly different takes, but I no longer think they are 'equally strong' in different scenarios. I can say, confidently, that the blue/green version is the superior version. It is faster, more streamlined, and has more staying power with the extra cantrip/selection effect in branchwalker and the reduced number of lands. It is hard to appreciate how these small changes make the deck better, but they do. The only meta now where I could consider playing monoblue intead of blue/green is a heavy midrange meta, because master of waves shines in midrange. However, I don't see modern shifting to midrange anytime soon.
Unless Rivals of Ixalan prints some insane monoblue merfolks that fit the old shell better, I can say with confidence that the blue/green version will be the new paradigm for fish going forward. Blue green will be the 'reference list' and monoblue will be a side option. The green splash also has something that is not completely appreciated: more flexibility to adapt to meta changes. Maybe future lists will include CoCo, Lead the Stampede, Life Goes On, etc. The access to an extra color in the pie obviously gives us more chance to keep up.
That is all for now.
EDIT: I like ketoglutarate's suggestion of shaper's sanctuary. I might try that on the sideboard cutting the one needle and the one natural state.
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All your criticism towards needle is that you need to know the card to name, basically. Yes, you do. Against e-tron you name karn (or ballista, depending if opponent has boatloads of mana), against normal tron you probably name o-stone, then ugin for the other copies. Against affinity you will usually have an opportunity to choose what to name. You can name ravager in the dark to avoid the opponent sacrificing the artifacts. Our deck is NOT good against planeswalkers if they generate tokens, especially Gideon Ally of Zendikar. Gideon of the Trials is also bothersome.
My sideboard suggestion was for a fetch/shock manabase. If you're playing caverns and territories I would move away from natural state and play 2 x echoing truths (to deal with the problematic ensnaring bridge and other stuff) and something else in the last slot, though not sure what it would be.
I mean, look at the examples you gave where dismember is good: storm and affinity. I strongly disagree given the sideboard I presented to you. We have 7 cards against affinity (needles and states) and 4 against storm (relic of progenitus). Storm plays lots of cantrips, do you really believe killing one of their cost-reduction creatures is going to stall their gameplan that much? They will probably either find another one or combo without it. Dismember is NOT a card that I'm excited to have against storm. I can see counterspells being good here, but usually relic + some cursecatchers is enough for me. My original U/G list plays 4 cursecatchers along with vials and speakers, so I think that about covers it. If you're playing echoing truth you can bring one from the sideboard to deal with a creature or, more likely, with a goblin onslaugh. I remember that my record against storm was pretty good despite zero dismembers main or in the side, relic did all the work (important to point out that we are a huge underdog in game 1).
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As for the lack of counterspells... I don't agree with it at all. UG is already giving up points versus mono-U against Burn and control decks thanks to its lesser comeback ability. No countermagic would just exacerbate that issue. Dispel and Negate are clean, efficient answers to pretty much every card you care about in those matchups, and they do well elsewhere as a bonus. Granted, UG can't run as many as mono-U because it needs to make room for Natural State (or an equivalent), but cutting the countermagic is definitely not correct.
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
Round 1 didn't count, the deck was some kind of janky combo ping deck with Isochron Scepter. 2-0
Round 2 was Bant Eldrazi. 2-0
I was able to beat him through a board of Eldrazi Displacer, Engineered Explosives on 2, and Drowner of Hope, with 6 lands. I can't recount the entire sequences of events, but let's just say that having 2 1-drops with Merrow Reejeray and being able to selectively play out threats was huge. Also, don't underestimate the value of choosing when to play a Merfolk to force them to tap EE, at which point they either blow it up at your convenience or they allow you to possibly resolve lethal damage. Plus, since Merrow triggers on cast, the 2-drop you cast will enter the battlefield after EE resolves. The real hero, however, was Harbinger of the Tides.
Round 3, Infect 1-2
I have not played this match in ages and made a ton of mistakes, both plays and sideboarding. This is a match where Dispel is far more valuable than removal and it also makes a good case for 4 Cursecatcher. If this deck is back, and competitive, it will resolve certain deck building decisions.
Round 4 Blue Moon 2-0
Blood Moon was annoying, but it doesn't come out before turn 3, so play your G Merfolk ASAP and keep Vial hands or hands with artifact destruction after sideboard. Obviously, watch out for Anger of the Gods. Kopala was a beast here because it ate up his mana, breaking his ability to remove as efficiently as I cast, convincing me that that is the card I want against mid-range and control decks.
Deck was very aggressive, draw was great, you could play patiently and then be explosive in a single turn.
Lackluster cards:
- Lead the Stampede was meh, but largely because the 8 cantrips in the deck and the high density of creatures made me feel like refilling was unnecessary, so having it in hand was never as good as casting a creature. It felt like if you hit that point it was too late. UU didn't need it and frankly UG needs it even less.
Changes:
- Removing Lead creates two slots. I am honestly not sure if that should be 1) Phantasmal Image, 2) removal, 3) counterspell, or 4) back to 4 Cursecatcher.
As a note on removal, given the tempo change of the deck, I am far more in favor of Vapor Snag than I have been in a long time. Cheap to cast, doesn't hurt us unless we target our own creature, allows us to target our own creature, hurts our opponent. Given the different level of aggression, I am not feeling the need for the kill spell as much as I am the need for the tempo blowout.
I could see dropping Kopala from the main and running the one in the sideboard, like we used to do with Kira, and then go to a 3rd Cursecatcher, but that still leaves me with 2 slots and 4 options: 2 Phantasmal Image, 1/1 Cursecatcher/Phantasmal Image 2 Vapor Snag, 2 Spell Pierce.
4 Island
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
1 Flooded Strand
1 Polluted Delta
1 Misty Rainforest
4 Mutavault
2 Cavern of Souls
Creatures 31
4 Kumena's Speaker
4 Merfolk Branchwalker
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Harbinger of the Tides
3 Cursecatcher
4 Æther Vial
4 Spreading Seas
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Natural State
3 Ceremonious Rejection
3 Dispel
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Kopala, Warden of Waves
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
—Radha, Keldon warlord
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Yeah, permission is great as a sideboard option in Merfolk. Sometimes you get out turn 1 vial and can hold up a negate or dispel pretty much the entire game. Other times you curve out for the first 2-3 turns and then can hold up permission after that. While sometimes you find yourself in awkward spots or making tough choices, Merfolk is generally pretty well positioned to take advantage of permission in the games where you need it. Vs combo decks in particularly, you don't even need to put on that much pressure to close out the game if you're holding up permission. A couple early creatures will do it.
Dismember is legit good against a lot of decks:
-Storm: Killing their creatures is a huge set back for them. Sure, they MIGHT just go on toe play another creature, but even if they do, that usually buys you a turn, and if they don't, you've often bought yourself a couple of turns, which is huge in that match up.
-BGx and Death's Shadow: I don't know about other folks, but I still struggle against an opponent dropping a turn 2 Taramogoyf or Tasigur backed up by removal and discard. Killing that threat buys a lot of time to build up a board state and overpower them.
-CoCo: The CoCo match up is like 90% about killing their key creature before they combo off since you're going to tend to win the creature game. Dismember is awesome here.
-Eldrazi: Dismembering a TKS is huge in this match-up, and I am fine forcing them to crack a Walking Ballista before they can build it up. And sometimes you just need to kill their Reality Shaper, even if it means discarding a card.
-Affinity: Master of Etherium, Signal Pest, and Overseer are all great targets, as is any creature that is swinging for 8+ damage in the air with a Cranial Plating. I generally find Dismember buys me a turn in this match up, which is what you desperately need to turn the tables on them.
-Any go wide creature deck: Whether Humans, Merfolk, Hatebears, or Spirits you can generally find a high value target that can help swing the game in your favor.
I'm not sold on Dismember, but that's because I think we need time and a life total more than we need actually killing an opposing creature.
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
—Radha, Keldon warlord
tl;dr
Not Zoo.
Tempo
Modern
Eldrazi and Staxes
Whir Prison
Legacy
5c Humans
DnT
"I'm a lead farmer... !" Quote ruined due to policy.
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
Ok well said. I guess we do use removal differently. Thanks to islandwalk we attack through blockers and keep removal for important threats, while normal aggro needs to clear a path for attacks. I do like counters since they can answer such a broad sphere of problems and give us game preboard vs combo but if others are suggesting going counterless, then maybe I need to adjust lol
Legacy: Merfolk U; Shadow UB; Eldrazi Stompy C
Pauper: Delver U
Vintage: Merfolk U
Primers:
// 4 Artifact
4 Aether Vial
// 32 Creature
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Merfolk Branchwalker
4 Kumena's Speaker
// 4 Enchantment
4 Spreading Seas
2 Dismember
// 18 Land
4 Mutavault
4 Island
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
1 Polluted Delta
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Flooded Strand
1 Scalding Tarn
// 8 Artifact
4 Relic of Progenitus
4 Pithing Needle
4 Natural State
3 Dispel
So far, results have been good. I played 10 matches with this configuration, to a 7-3 record. Lost 1-2 to only one real deck (a death's shadow/tarmogoyf/traverse the ulvenwald jund deck), because I sideboarded incorrectly and forgot to bring in some needles to face lili of the veil. Also lost 0-2 to a madcap experiment platinum angel deck. These two losses made me cut phantasmal image mainboard (it was not being good), and try the dismembers everyone has been suggesting. The final loss was a 1-2 record against a bad land destruction deck, because he found the firespouts in the most important turn in one game and I got stuck on one land in the other game, not drawing lands for multiple turns in a row. I defeated storm, eldrazi and taxes, goryo's gifts, scapeshift, R/G tron, rat moon and B/W death and taxes.
Important observations:
- Manabase is great, both colorwise and countwise. I would strongly suggest everyone try 18 lands with the split I used above. Initially I wanted to play with 22 lands because I was afraid of mulligan into oblivion. However, since I accepted the fact that I will have to mulligan some no-landers and one-landers, the deck has been perfoming incredibly well. I didn't test yavimaya coasts as ketoglutarate suggests, so I don't know how good they are. Believe it or not, I have yet to get color screwed despite the 4 mutavaults main (which have been excellent). The split with four different fetchlands is to combat very corner case scenarios where opponent pithing needles a random fetchland or surgical extracts a fetch with you having another in hand or something like that. If you can have 4 different fetches, do it, if you can't, it is not a big deal.
- Phantasmal image has been bad. Aside from the terrible nonbo that it is with silvergill adept and merrow reejerey, it is rare that it gets to be decisive. It is also not out of question that the opponent can kill it without a removal spell. Kessig Wolf Run and Walking Ballista are cards that kill image with ease, where they wouldn't do it with other merfolk. I've exchanged the image for dismembers due to suggestions made here, and still haven't put enough games with it to know if it is good. So far it hasn't been crucial, just ok, but I didn't play matchups where it would have matter that much. I still didn't test pongify as some suggested.
- I love the current sideboard configuration. I stand by my initial assessment that counterspells are not needed, and even bad. However, I decided to make an exception for dispel due to the fact that it covers some matchups that became a bit rough. Namely: infect, burn and jeskai/uw control decks. In that sense, I started to learn the importance of having dispel against control decks that pile up lots of removal. I actually didn't play against infect or burn, but I had absolutely no answer to these decks and dispel did the trick. Finally, I don't play kira or kopala to keep the mana curve low, so I needed the extra protection from dispel. I recommend 4 relic for sure. It is amazing in the matchups that you need it. 4 needles and 4 states is a bit experimental, but I'm sure my sideboard will end up with some number of those cards. Needle was absolutely MVP in a matchup against a death and taxes deck where I named Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. It is tricky to know when to side it in though, and I'm not sure if 4 is the correct number, maybe 3 would be enough. Natural state also didn't have an opportunity to shine, mainly because I didn't play against the decks where I wanted it: affinity, thopter foundry, various tezzerets decks, lantern control and other ensnaring bridge decks. I gave some though in bringing state against a rat moon opponent, but it felt very unnecessary, despite losing one game to a blood moon. I just fecthed islands the other two games and won. I think 4 natural states here is also a big number, probably should go down to 3, opening up 2 slots if you add the needle reduction. That said, I love the current choice of cards. I didn't incorporate my own suggestion of having master of waves on the sideboard because I'm playing with 18 lands, not 19, and I think that is too low for master.
- I strongly recommend keeping the cursecatcher count at 4. The card has been clutch in some crucial matchups, and the higher number increases our chances of a turn 1 play. Despite my initial grudge against harbinger, the card has been alright. To be frank, there are a tad too many matchups where it is just a 2/2 for 2, but I'm learning to live with that. If rivals prints some good interactive merfolk for 2, I would consider cutting the harbinger. I also may have not played enough matchups to appreciate where harbinger is good. The rest of the core of the deck feels excellent. The low land count coupled with the lower curve makes the deck more aggressive and incisive, better at goldfishing the turn 4 kills and better at keeping an aggressive pace from the get go.
- Last but not least, I will say it now: initially I thought this deck and the monoblue version were different takes on the same theme with different strengths and weaknesses without a clear version being better than the other. I still think they are slightly different takes, but I no longer think they are 'equally strong' in different scenarios. I can say, confidently, that the blue/green version is the superior version. It is faster, more streamlined, and has more staying power with the extra cantrip/selection effect in branchwalker and the reduced number of lands. It is hard to appreciate how these small changes make the deck better, but they do. The only meta now where I could consider playing monoblue intead of blue/green is a heavy midrange meta, because master of waves shines in midrange. However, I don't see modern shifting to midrange anytime soon.
Unless Rivals of Ixalan prints some insane monoblue merfolks that fit the old shell better, I can say with confidence that the blue/green version will be the new paradigm for fish going forward. Blue green will be the 'reference list' and monoblue will be a side option. The green splash also has something that is not completely appreciated: more flexibility to adapt to meta changes. Maybe future lists will include CoCo, Lead the Stampede, Life Goes On, etc. The access to an extra color in the pie obviously gives us more chance to keep up.
That is all for now.
EDIT: I like ketoglutarate's suggestion of shaper's sanctuary. I might try that on the sideboard cutting the one needle and the one natural state.
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).