I would run 9-10 fetchlands with rallier. 9 minimum. -1 forest +1 marsh flats is my recommendation for your build.
Kinda running on a budget unfortunately (slowly building piece by piece and proxy testing): would using -1 Forest -1 Breeding Pool -1 Godless Shrine +2 Wooded Foothills +1 Murmuring Bosk be a decent sub?
Eh, count your white sources I think just -1 forest +1 wooded foothills would be fine. You'll feel it not getting godless shrine but so rarely it's not an issue.
Eh, count your white sources I think just -1 forest +1 wooded foothills would be fine. You'll feel it not getting godless shrine but so rarely it's not an issue.
I really do not like lands that ETB tapped
I agree on ETB tapped lands: a major reason why I avoid Razorverge Thicket (at least I can choose to pay 2 life or not with Temple Garden).
For sources, I'm aiming for 18 G (T4 GGG) / 15 W (T2 WW) / 10 B (T1 B), counting Fetches as a full 1 for each
Fetches/Bosk: 11 G / 11 W / 11 B; Shocks/Canopies: 5 G / 4 W / 1 B; Basics 2 G / 1 W / 1 B; Totals (before Dorks) = 18 G / 16 W / 13 B
With the proposed changes (-1 Bosk, +1 Godless Shrine), I'd be short 1 G source from lands alone (better than ETB tapped Bosk though), and with (-2 Foothills, +2 Flats), that'd be a heavier reliance on Shocks ... something I had a bad experience with against Affinity.
20 sources gives you WW turn 2 with 90% probability. 15 sources would give you 90% probability by turn 6.
Accepting lower probabilities is certainly your call but 15 sources does seem low.
First, I have no idea what hat Karsten is picking his numbers out of, but 20 W sources provides WW on T2 with 80% probability, not 90%.
Second, of that 80%, 50% will occur being flooded on W sources.
Third, while 15 W sources provides only 65% probability of WW on T2, I really only need WW for Anafenza 2.0 and Flickerwisp (similarly to how I only need B on turn 1 for Viscera Seer). The earliest I need W is T2 for Pridemage and Saffi.
Having said all that ... perhaps I can reevaluate my goals.
T3 GG (maybe just G); T3 W; T? B (it's pretty much a splash).
Should be 7 to 14 G, 7 W, ? B ... a bit better, but probably over doing it now.
Ok, first I apologize for being a jerk: no sense in attacking a person's credibility when I have no idea what their methodology is.
Anyhow, since we're strictly dealing with hypergeometric distribution myself, similar to what Karsten is using (though for some reason he opts for Permutations and plain Factorials as opposed to the necessary Combinations in his first example), I'm using the following spreadsheet for my calculations:
After reading the article further, I was unaware that he factored mulligans into account whereas I didn't.
So with one potential mulligan (factored in as A OR (NOT A AND B), the probability increases to 95% with 20 W sources to get WW by turn 2 ... and that's without factoring additional mulligans or being on the draw. It is about 85% with 15 W sources.
Again I apologize for being a jerk though.
EDIT: Somewhat of a related question: how aggressively do we want to mulligan if at all?
So what's everyone's thoughts on how abzan coco is sitting right now in the meta. I know it put up good numbers on the scg regional. I am debating taking it with me to gp vancouver next weekend. And while I haven't played it in a bit it seems to be looking good again. Is saffi the real deal?
EDIT: Somewhat of a related question: how aggressively do we want to mulligan if at all?
For me this depends alot on if I know what I'm up against and if I'm on the draw, after alot of matches you usually get a feeling for the keepable hands.
Vs ad nauseam/tron/valakut/elves other decks we likely need to combo off to win, I mull more agressively, not keeping any hand with at least 2 combo pieces (chord counts as 1 obv.) or min. 1 piece + a CoCo (on the draw i'd be skeptic if I have no dork).
Against Control MU's I mostly keep any decent hand, except a 1 lander+dork(s) against Jund.
Against burn/other dmg based aggro I used to like hands with either alot of dorks and a CoCo or Finks.
I haven't played the deck for a while though, so this applies to the more combo-oriented version as I have been grinding drafts instead of the new modern format lately, so I'm not yet familiar with the intricacies of this more value-oriented version in this new fatal push meta, which I reckon makes the 1 land + dorks hands less keepable.
For me it's that people keep putting up really good results with Rallier.
Others have mentioned that the deck needs to be played differently when using this card; I haven't spent enough time with it yet to really figure it out.
Guys, I really like Rallier and I think its a great modern looking card, but dont you think its somehow weird to each time u fire off CoCo, sac a creature and then pray to see Rallier in first 6 cards? I mean, if you hit Rallier, then you will get huge value, but if you dont, you just ruin yourself.. I personaly dont like the way how it looks this line of play.
You could still get value from Rallier even if it comes to play without revolt ability. If you have Seer and a Rallier in play, you can chord for Saffi to put infinite scry triggers and scry for Anafenza next turn. It is also a good chord target if you want to get a combo piece in your graveyard. It still has its upsides but I think 2-3 is the right number. You still want to have eternal witnesses.
Guys, I really like Rallier and I think its a great modern looking card, but dont you think its somehow weird to each time u fire off CoCo, sac a creature and then pray to see Rallier in first 6 cards? I mean, if you hit Rallier, then you will get huge value, but if you dont, you just ruin yourself.. I personaly dont like the way how it looks this line of play.
That's not something you should do. Instead play a couple more fetches and try to time your fetchlands to when you are casting coco.
Eternal Witness against the control decks with Snapcaster Mage flashbacks and board wipes, Renegade Rallier against the midrange decks with targeted and 1 for 1s for days, and Tireless Tracker only if going a more value-oriented build.
Right now I believe I will run 2 to 3 Rallier and 1 Witness in a combo-oriented build.
Hi all, I have just built this deck and i have a few questions about boarding. How do you sb vs Grixes control? do you keep in the combo? or do you try to be as grindy as possible.
For your build specifically, I'd slide in the Decays, Tidehollow, Sin Collector, and Tracker. Definitely Eidolon if you think you can protect it (it is actually pretty good on paper against Vryn's Prodigy, Snapcaster, Goblin Dark Dwellers, etc.) I'd say take out whatever you normally take out for Jeskai control (see matchups section in the OP by Torpf) as well as Fiend Hunter (he is not typically as required as in Jeskai Control).
If you're open to potential substitutes in the side ... Selfless Spirit or Burrenton Forge-Tender to blank the red sweepers like Anger of the Gods and Pyroclasm.
I think Eternal Witness is far better than both. It's necessary to make Collected Company truly great in the deck, as there aren't a high number of impactful hits. The logic os you get a reroll when Company hits Eternal Witness + blank. Neither Tracker or Rallier can have the same effect. I always felt that for game1 the deck is combo first and grind second, and Eternal Witness help with the combo part by making Company better when trying to race another deck (by helping see more cards and find combo pieces). The deck doesn't need the ramp (main upside of Rallier) or has enough disruption to make a long game with Tracker a great option against an open field, at least not in game 1.
For me, running less than 3 Eternal Witness in the main is a big deck constructionmistake, and running any copies of Rallier or Tracker in the maindeck can only be justified as metagame calls or trying to open up sideboard slots. Those two cards don't help with your main game plan for game 1.
Ramp is not the main upside of Rallier; it is merely the most accessible. The main upside is effectively being a copy of any hatebear that has been binned (more often than not Spellskite) as long as Revolt is active, and slightly less impactful upsides include comboing with Seer and Saffi and returning binned combo pieces. (incidentally this is also why I favor Flickerwisp now)
However I will say it feels very much like a card that has to be ran either as a 4 of or 3 of if ran at all. I say this because it is worse-than-vanilla Finks without Revolt, so hitting one off Company while Revolt is turned off definitely feels bad. 1 of could work as a chord target, but that actually seems like a sketchy play.
Edit: Point being, if you run it, you want to expect to see it. Not use the heart of the cards and hope you don't see it.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Kinda running on a budget unfortunately (slowly building piece by piece and proxy testing): would using -1 Forest -1 Breeding Pool -1 Godless Shrine +2 Wooded Foothills +1 Murmuring Bosk be a decent sub?
4 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Temple Garden
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Murmuring Bosk
2 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
2 Horizon Canopy
3 Gavony Township
3 Noble Hierarch
2 Wall of Roots
3 Viscera Seer
3 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
4 Kitchen Finks
3 Renegade Rallier
1 Eternal Witness
1 Saffi Eriksdotter
1 Spellskite
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Flickerwisp
4 Collected Company
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I really do not like lands that ETB tapped
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
I agree on ETB tapped lands: a major reason why I avoid Razorverge Thicket (at least I can choose to pay 2 life or not with Temple Garden).
For sources, I'm aiming for 18 G (T4 GGG) / 15 W (T2 WW) / 10 B (T1 B), counting Fetches as a full 1 for each
Fetches/Bosk: 11 G / 11 W / 11 B; Shocks/Canopies: 5 G / 4 W / 1 B; Basics 2 G / 1 W / 1 B; Totals (before Dorks) = 18 G / 16 W / 13 B
With the proposed changes (-1 Bosk, +1 Godless Shrine), I'd be short 1 G source from lands alone (better than ETB tapped Bosk though), and with (-2 Foothills, +2 Flats), that'd be a heavier reliance on Shocks ... something I had a bad experience with against Affinity.
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Accepting lower probabilities is certainly your call but 15 sources does seem low.
First, I have no idea what hat Karsten is picking his numbers out of, but 20 W sources provides WW on T2 with 80% probability, not 90%.
Second, of that 80%, 50% will occur being flooded on W sources.
Third, while 15 W sources provides only 65% probability of WW on T2, I really only need WW for Anafenza 2.0 and Flickerwisp (similarly to how I only need B on turn 1 for Viscera Seer). The earliest I need W is T2 for Pridemage and Saffi.
Having said all that ... perhaps I can reevaluate my goals.
T3 GG (maybe just G); T3 W; T? B (it's pretty much a splash).
Should be 7 to 14 G, 7 W, ? B ... a bit better, but probably over doing it now.
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The detail of the math can be found in Karsten's article here
It's pretty solid math. I didn't bother doing it myself but I'd be interested to know where you got your 80% from.
WGB Traverse
Anyhow, since we're strictly dealing with hypergeometric distribution myself, similar to what Karsten is using (though for some reason he opts for Permutations and plain Factorials as opposed to the necessary Combinations in his first example), I'm using the following spreadsheet for my calculations:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-lxIZFajStfGx1QNDG5opLLZQinDI-1_QQhClLRflec/edit?usp=sharing
After reading the article further, I was unaware that he factored mulligans into account whereas I didn't.
So with one potential mulligan (factored in as A OR (NOT A AND B), the probability increases to 95% with 20 W sources to get WW by turn 2 ... and that's without factoring additional mulligans or being on the draw. It is about 85% with 15 W sources.
Again I apologize for being a jerk though.
EDIT: Somewhat of a related question: how aggressively do we want to mulligan if at all?
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For me this depends alot on if I know what I'm up against and if I'm on the draw, after alot of matches you usually get a feeling for the keepable hands.
Vs ad nauseam/tron/valakut/elves other decks we likely need to combo off to win, I mull more agressively, not keeping any hand with at least 2 combo pieces (chord counts as 1 obv.) or min. 1 piece + a CoCo (on the draw i'd be skeptic if I have no dork).
Against Control MU's I mostly keep any decent hand, except a 1 lander+dork(s) against Jund.
Against burn/other dmg based aggro I used to like hands with either alot of dorks and a CoCo or Finks.
I haven't played the deck for a while though, so this applies to the more combo-oriented version as I have been grinding drafts instead of the new modern format lately, so I'm not yet familiar with the intricacies of this more value-oriented version in this new fatal push meta, which I reckon makes the 1 land + dorks hands less keepable.
For me it's that people keep putting up really good results with Rallier.
Others have mentioned that the deck needs to be played differently when using this card; I haven't spent enough time with it yet to really figure it out.
That's not something you should do. Instead play a couple more fetches and try to time your fetchlands to when you are casting coco.
Eternal Witness against the control decks with Snapcaster Mage flashbacks and board wipes, Renegade Rallier against the midrange decks with targeted and 1 for 1s for days, and Tireless Tracker only if going a more value-oriented build.
Right now I believe I will run 2 to 3 Rallier and 1 Witness in a combo-oriented build.
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If you're open to potential substitutes in the side ... Selfless Spirit or Burrenton Forge-Tender to blank the red sweepers like Anger of the Gods and Pyroclasm.
Avatar and Signature by XenoNinja via Heroes of the Plane Studios
The nice part about rallier is you can play voices which tend to demolish blue decks.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
For me, running less than 3 Eternal Witness in the main is a big deck constructionmistake, and running any copies of Rallier or Tracker in the maindeck can only be justified as metagame calls or trying to open up sideboard slots. Those two cards don't help with your main game plan for game 1.
However I will say it feels very much like a card that has to be ran either as a 4 of or 3 of if ran at all. I say this because it is worse-than-vanilla Finks without Revolt, so hitting one off Company while Revolt is turned off definitely feels bad. 1 of could work as a chord target, but that actually seems like a sketchy play.
Edit: Point being, if you run it, you want to expect to see it. Not use the heart of the cards and hope you don't see it.
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