That's the same rule I cited yesterday, after people asked the same question about Skullcrack. There's nothing unusual about how this works. If your life total changes, you gained or lost life, so things that care about gaining or losing life do stuff (triggered abilities, "can't gain/lose life" abilities matter, etc.).
I know and I wasnt doubting that, you right hence I posted about countering it and how if we do its a game winning move for us in other posts. Some wanted "more" validation so I posted the question in the Magic rulings section just to help ease the concern for the over reaction this card has caused.
Anyway Oketra's Last Mercy for me can appear instead of blessed alliance for example. When I play blue and white of course I will play it, Spell Snare and Dispel make this card great and easy to protect. So anyway bad news for burn players I think
If you make that swap, you lose a card that is more broadly relevant for one that is narrowly anti-burn. The forced sacrifice is relevant against other decks and gaining 4 is probably good enough against Burn anyway. Go ahead and reset your life to 20, take your next turn off, and see how long you live against a 8/8 Death's Shadow and a Gurmag Angler. Answer: you died. Blessed Alliance gives you a fighting chance there. There are better options than Oketra's Last Mercy.
This makes me laugh, ok Spell Snare/Dispel. Well I will play Vexing Shusher and make all my spells uncounterable and you lose....then you will play Path to Exile and I will use Lightning Greaves or Guttural Response to counter your counter....we can play this game all day. This is the classic case of "well if you do this then I will do that" LOL....but in game play will you have that card at that time and situation.
Lots of cards get hyped early and nothing comes of them and some hype is real. Just look at the Gideon of the Trials so much hype $40 pre sale at some paces not its like $10. Im not running from Burn cause of this card. Plus we dont know what Red version of this we getting. Black has Bontu's, White has Oketra's lets see what we get and even if we get nothing, Burn is Tier 1 for about 3 years now outside Affinity Burn has been holding strong there for that length of time.
I made a comprehensive sideboarding guide for Burn, and I would like to share it with you in order to get some feedback into my sideboard plan and to help you out with sideboarding.
That's the same rule I cited yesterday, after people asked the same question about Skullcrack. There's nothing unusual about how this works. If your life total changes, you gained or lost life, so things that care about gaining or losing life do stuff (triggered abilities, "can't gain/lose life" abilities matter, etc.).
I know and I wasnt doubting that, you right hence I posted about countering it and how if we do its a game winning move for us in other posts. Some wanted "more" validation so I posted the question in the Magic rulings section just to help ease the concern for the over reaction this card has caused.
And I appreciate you finding that validation. I've been swamped lately and really haven't had a chance to keep up with recent MTG news, including that within the threads I follow, so I totally made a rookie mistake and didn't read previous pages for any context. Figures that the one time I don't, there's more than just the same back and forth regarding the merits of Atarka's Command, "burn" lists that are really just zoo with bolt, and a Nacatl-esque rift between those who are for & against Harsh Mentor (assuming that debate is still raging; I actually just noticed it made a few recent tourney lists, so I'll have to dig up the details on that chestnut).
Anyway Oketra's Last Mercy for me can appear instead of blessed alliance for example. When I play blue and white of course I will play it, Spell Snare and Dispel make this card great and easy to protect. So anyway bad news for burn players I think
If you make that swap, you lose a card that is more broadly relevant for one that is narrowly anti-burn. The forced sacrifice is relevant against other decks and gaining 4 is probably good enough against Burn anyway. Go ahead and reset your life to 20, take your next turn off, and see how long you live against a 8/8 Death's Shadow and a Gurmag Angler. Answer: you died. Blessed Alliance gives you a fighting chance there. There are better options than Oketra's Last Mercy.
This makes me laugh, ok Spell Snare/Dispel. Well I will play Vexing Shusher and make all my spells uncounterable and you lose....then you will play Path to Exile and I will use Lightning Greaves or Guttural Response to counter your counter....we can play this game all day. This is the classic case of "well if you do this then I will do that" LOL....but in game play will you have that card at that time and situation.
Lots of cards get hyped early and nothing comes of them and some hype is real. Just look at the Gideon of the Trials so much hype $40 pre sale at some paces not its like $10. Im not running from Burn cause of this card. Plus we dont know what Red version of this we getting. Black has Bontu's, White has Oketra's lets see what we get and even if we get nothing, Burn is Tier 1 for about 3 years now outside Affinity Burn has been holding strong there for that length of time.
I think you misunderstood why I mentioned Death's Shadow and Gurmag Angler, because your Vexing Shusher -> Guttural Response story doesn't make any sense given my initial statement. Your story about Gideon of the Trials doesn't make sense either.
There is a calculus you have to perform when you assess cards for your deck and sideboard. If you could play 400 cards in your sideboard, fine, play whatever super-hoser you have for Burn even though that card is bad in other matchups. Instead, you have 15 slots and you'll have to make some tough decisions for your sideboard. You don't want to fill it up with narrow sideboard cards aimed at a single matchup, because then you're screwed against all of the other matchups.
So, what does Oketra's Last Mercy compete with? Other lifegain cards like Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements. Blessed Alliance gains you some life and kills that lone Death's Shadow you're staring at. Timely gains you 6 life and buys you some blockers. Killing the DS is psuedo-lifegain. The blockers are psuedo-lifegain. Both Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements are legit sideboard cards against Burn and they are versatile enough to apply to other matchups as well. That's what you should be seeking in a sideboard card, because doing that frees up more slots. Oketra's Last Mercy hoses Burn unless it gets Skullcracked and then your opponent gets to untap twice before you get to untap those 3 lands (or more if you play more spells). That's a huge downside against pretty much any other deck, even if you do gain 14 life. If you put OLM in your sideboard, you lose another sideboard card. If that sideboard card is Blessed Alliance, you've lost a key card against Death's Shadow and you'd be making a huge mistake if you bring OLM against Death's Shadow.
It's a true statement that OLM would hose Burn if it sticks but it's garbage in other matchups. It's also a true statement that there are other cards that are good against Burn and good against other matchups. OLM is competing with those cards, and it would be a wise decision to use the more versatile cards.
I think you misunderstood why I mentioned Death's Shadow and Gurmag Angler, because your Vexing Shusher -> Guttural Response story doesn't make any sense given my initial statement. Your story about Gideon of the Trials doesn't make sense either.
There is a calculus you have to perform when you assess cards for your deck and sideboard. If you could play 400 cards in your sideboard, fine, play whatever super-hoser you have for Burn even though that card is bad in other matchups. Instead, you have 15 slots and you'll have to make some tough decisions for your sideboard. You don't want to fill it up with narrow sideboard cards aimed at a single matchup, because then you're screwed against all of the other matchups.
So, what does Oketra's Last Mercy compete with? Other lifegain cards like Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements. Blessed Alliance gains you some life and kills that lone Death's Shadow you're staring at. Timely gains you 6 life and buys you some blockers. Killing the DS is psuedo-lifegain. The blockers are psuedo-lifegain. Both Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements are legit sideboard cards against Burn and they are versatile enough to apply to other matchups as well. That's what you should be seeking in a sideboard card, because doing that frees up more slots. Oketra's Last Mercy hoses Burn unless it gets Skullcracked and then your opponent gets to untap twice before you get to untap those 3 lands (or more if you play more spells). That's a huge downside against pretty much any other deck, even if you do gain 14 life. If you put OLM in your sideboard, you lose another sideboard card. If that sideboard card is Blessed Alliance, you've lost a key card against Death's Shadow and you'd be making a huge mistake if you bring OLM against Death's Shadow.
It's a true statement that OLM would hose Burn if it sticks but it's garbage in other matchups. It's also a true statement that there are other cards that are good against Burn and good against other matchups. OLM is competing with those cards, and it would be a wise decision to use the more versatile cards.
Im sorry I wasnt directing that at you I was directing that at the other guy. I should have went back to his original post and quoted that. I wasnt calling you out and dont disagree with your DS/Blessed Alliance post.
Im sorry I wasnt directing that at you I was directing that at the other guy. I should have went back to his original post and quoted that. I wasnt calling you out and dont disagree with your DS/Blessed Alliance post.
Cheers
I think I made the same mistake and got mixed up as well. Sorry for that!
Given you were talking to the other guy, the Guttural Response and Gideon story make sense now.
Newbie burn player here back for more advice on how to play and deck construction. I've been doing pretty well at my small LGS, fending off Tron and Affinity most notably. The deck's been doing well despite not having any Eidolon of the Great Revel, which will be fixed by an order placed soon.
Assuming you don't know what deck you're against playing yet, is Eidolon an automatic drop on turn 2 if you have it? I haven't played with it yet, but it looks like one of the better cards in the deck.
What do you think of these changes I made compared to the last version:
1) Added 4 Eidolon, taking out Harsh Mentor and Vexing Devil.
2) Taking the advice of someone on this thread, -1 Collateral damage +1 Shard Volley
3) Went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland, more on this later.
4) -1 Bloodcrypt +1 Blackcleaves Cliff
Sideboard
5) +1 Fatal Push, +1 Bloodmoon, +1 ?
I opened a 4th bloodmoon at a mm17 draft. It was working very well as a 3 of against Tron and some very painful/greedy 3-4 color mana bases at the shop. I'm worried that having gone down to 19 lands from 20 this card will have trouble coming out on time. Perhaps I could play Ghost Quarter or a forest in the board as well. Ghost quarter holds them off if I don't draw a Bloodmoon, or can get me to 3 mana to play one. Sideboard suggestions?
This list has been quite fun to pilot. Since it's doing so well in it's infancy, I wonder if I need to be that set on building a R/W/g list. (My only plans are to play at the lgs for the next few months.) The list looses flexibility without white in the deck it seems. It does seem to make up for it slightly in speed. Bump in the Night gives the deck 4 extra 1 cmc burn spells. This in turn has been making one land hands work more often and help pump up Monastery swifterspear more often. It's also part of the reason the deck went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland. Having one more spell in the deck seems to help a bit.
One of those was "T2 Eidolon or T2: Swift+Spike -> T3 Eidolon". Most said T2 Eidolon, because sticking it is very important and it gets a 2 mana spell out of your hand. That section of the thread is a good read.
Personally, I think you want 2 Blood Crypts given that you have maindeck black. You want to be able to weather a ghost quarter/spreading seas/whatever other destruction and still have fetchable black. It's tough playing Blood Moon in a 3 color deck like this, and I wouldn't advise doing it. If you're having trouble against Tron, I'd play something like Molten Rain instead. You're generally going to be able to hold them off of Tron long enough with that to just beat them.
If you're looking for sideboard slots, Everlasting Torment is probably not worth it considering you already have 6 Skullcrack effects in the maindeck. I'm not too familiar with playing black in Burn, but you probably want more Fatal Push to deal with stuff that's out of bolt range and small enough in CMC for Fatal Push. Is the Slagstorm because of a lot of creature matchups like Elves and Fish?
I made a comprehensive sideboarding guide for Burn, and I would like to share it with you in order to get some feedback into my sideboard plan and to help you out with sideboarding.
Also, I would like to notice that this guide is particular to my decklist, and it is on the beginning of the guide.
I hope it helps you out!
I'm not going to give you all of my suggestions, but there are some fundamental disagreements between my sideboard strategy and yours.
On the draw, you can often take out 1-2 lands depending on what your curve looks like after board. Specifically, I run 20 lands because I want to hit 3 lands in my first 9 cards (3 turns). It isn't a coincidence that 3/9 = 20/60. On the draw, you have an extra look (10 cards), so you only need 18 lands to give a similar probability of finding exactly 3 lands in your first 3 turns. If I had bridges in my board or something like that, or if some of my 1-mana spells are getting upgraded to 2-mana spells, then I might shave only 1 or even 0 lands on the draw. Keep this in mind, because it alleviates some of the stress when you feel like you're overboarding.
Against creature decks that gum up the ground and GB(x) midrange decks with infinite removal, I often take out many of my creatures, at least on the draw. Guide and Eidolon suck vs. Merfolk on the draw, similarly Swiftspear and Guide against Jund or Junk on the draw. In these cases, I don't want to draw 0-2 damage cards. Instead, I'd like to see bolts and paths etc. This often leaves you with 8 slots to play with.
I'm not going to give you all of my suggestions, but there are some fundamental disagreements between my sideboard strategy and yours.
I don't consider my sideboard strategy to be perfect, far from it. I think we all could benefit from a myriad of sideboard strategies and healthy discussion. That said, I would love to hear how you sideboard =)
On the draw, you can often take out 1-2 lands depending on what your curve looks like after board. Specifically, I run 20 lands because I want to hit 3 lands in my first 9 cards (3 turns). It isn't a coincidence that 3/9 = 20/60. On the draw, you have an extra look (10 cards), so you only need 18 lands to give a similar probability of finding exactly 3 lands in your first 3 turns. If I had bridges in my board or something like that, or if some of my 1-mana spells are getting upgraded to 2-mana spells, then I might shave only 1 or even 0 lands on the draw. Keep this in mind, because it alleviates some of the stress when you feel like you're overboarding.
This really makes sense, its an insight I didn`t had, as I was used to play with 19 lands and recently switched to the 20 land build. Maybe we could cut a mountain against non-white decks?
One of those was "T2 Eidolon or T2: Swift+Spike -> T3 Eidolon". Most said T2 Eidolon, because sticking it is very important and it gets a 2 mana spell out of your hand. That section of the thread is a good read.
Personally, I think you want 2 Blood Crypts given that you have maindeck black. You want to be able to weather a ghost quarter/spreading seas/whatever other destruction and still have fetchable black. It's tough playing Blood Moon in a 3 color deck like this, and I wouldn't advise doing it. If you're having trouble against Tron, I'd play something like Molten Rain instead. You're generally going to be able to hold them off of Tron long enough with that to just beat them.
If you're looking for sideboard slots, Everlasting Torment is probably not worth it considering you already have 6 Skullcrack effects in the maindeck. I'm not too familiar with playing black in Burn, but you probably want more Fatal Push to deal with stuff that's out of bolt range and small enough in CMC for Fatal Push. Is the Slagstorm because of a lot of creature matchups like Elves and Fish?
Thanks for the feedback! I play only a small lgs so my toughest opponents are Tron, Affinity, and Jund Zoo. My sideboard has the luxury of being able to narrow it's focus against certain decks. There is an elves deck and a bant+red coco deck (and affinity) that put out a lot of creatures. Slagstorm has been stomping these decks. Perhaps I have too many, perhaps too few? Only more experience with my local meta will tell on that.
I have pondered Blood moon quite a bit. When I sideboard in Blood moon I take out Bump in the Night, leaving me with two colors when playing the moon. I switch out black, add 2 destructive revelry to the mainboard (against Tron.) I've considered adding a forest to the sideboard to help, doesn't seem essential so far. (Though I'm worried that going from 20 to 19 lands might give me a hard time playing it.) If I draw a green spell and moon opening hand, I can play the green spell turn 2, moon turn 3. From there, it's only a 10% chance I'd draw a green spell.
I don't need moon against affinity, so it doesn't cause my revelry's to get hung up. So far, other greedy mana base decks I've played wouldn't be hurt by revelry so Bump goes out, moon goes in. The deck now has only 4 atarka's command in off-color cards. I may occasionally draw a command and have to wait for another spell. In the meantime my opponent is so mana screwed they don't present much threat anymore.
The 2 Blood Crypt comment does make sense. I've only just started trying out playing 1. Luckily, people haven't been playing land destruction against me very much at all. I'll remember that if more ld pops up.
Everlasting Torment has been a funny card I've been considering trading out. Grim Lavamancer has been an all-star for me when it shows up. It's been great against affinity and has won me games when I run out of gas. Seems worthwhile against aggro decks and those playing mana dorks.
I have yet to play with Fatal Push in the sideboard. My deck does REALLY want Path to Exile and Push seems like the best black alternative in that slot.
^Is there any particular reason you don't play anger of the gods instead of slagstorm?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Standard // nRG Aggro
Modern // Burn (main) and Living End (secondary) now Jund.
For fun check out my janky combo primer: Turn 3 Grixis Combo
"Can't beat em' Jund em'!"
Newbie burn player here back for more advice on how to play and deck construction. I've been doing pretty well at my small LGS, fending off Tron and Affinity most notably. The deck's been doing well despite not having any Eidolon of the Great Revel, which will be fixed by an order placed soon.
Assuming you don't know what deck you're against playing yet, is Eidolon an automatic drop on turn 2 if you have it? I haven't played with it yet, but it looks like one of the better cards in the deck.
What do you think of these changes I made compared to the last version:
1) Added 4 Eidolon, taking out Harsh Mentor and Vexing Devil.
2) Taking the advice of someone on this thread, -1 Collateral damage +1 Shard Volley
3) Went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland, more on this later.
4) -1 Bloodcrypt +1 Blackcleaves Cliff
Sideboard
5) +1 Fatal Push, +1 Bloodmoon, +1 ?
I opened a 4th bloodmoon at a mm17 draft. It was working very well as a 3 of against Tron and some very painful/greedy 3-4 color mana bases at the shop. I'm worried that having gone down to 19 lands from 20 this card will have trouble coming out on time. Perhaps I could play Ghost Quarter or a forest in the board as well. Ghost quarter holds them off if I don't draw a Bloodmoon, or can get me to 3 mana to play one. Sideboard suggestions?
This list has been quite fun to pilot. Since it's doing so well in it's infancy, I wonder if I need to be that set on building a R/W/g list. (My only plans are to play at the lgs for the next few months.) The list looses flexibility without white in the deck it seems. It does seem to make up for it slightly in speed. Bump in the Night gives the deck 4 extra 1 cmc burn spells. This in turn has been making one land hands work more often and help pump up Monastery swifterspear more often. It's also part of the reason the deck went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland. Having one more spell in the deck seems to help a bit.
Why not go naya it seem like path + helix better than push + bump. Naha have better side cards
Round #1 Eldrazi Tron 1-2 (Derek)
G1 on the play and didn't see any chalices; got the W
G2 got him down to 5 w/ a boros charm in hand but a timely Ulamog exiling my Inspiring Vantages sealed the deal for him.
G3 chalice on 1 AND 2 pretty much stole the game for him.
brought in 2 stoney silence, 2 palms and 4 drevs. probably should have brought in the paths decided not to thinking that pathing a reality smasher seems bad and would be better off with another burn spell instead.
Round #2 Naya Company (Drew) 2-1
G1 didn't see much from him; burned him to death.
G2 expecting to see Kitchen Finx +3 Path -3 lava spike. My goblin guide flips a leyline of sanctity which I then proceed to lose G2 to.
G3 +4 Drev -4 Charms. Burn him down until my Goblin guides are staring down 2x goyfs. He swings in with 4 mana open. I chump expecting him to play more dudes on his second main. Instead he plays a leyline. I respond with a Drev upon its resolution and top deck a Helix for a win.
Round #3 Steve on Tezerator/Thopter combo. 2-1
G1 clunky draws on both our parts. I start flooding once I have him down to 2 life and he starts making thopters.
G2 +2 stony silence +2 Rip +4 Drev -4 seering blaze -4 helix because I dont have to race. Find my SB cards and win.
G3 he finds bridge and 3 copies of welding jar. but that wasn't enough to stop me from burning him to death ftw.
Round #4 Kyle on Vizier Combo/Company 0-2
G1 I waste all my burn on his combo dudes and run out of removal when it comes time for him to eldritch evolution into a E.witness and combo off.
G2 +2 rip +d.palm (which was dumb because I thought I could use it to deflect the Ballista dmg) +3 path. I go on the attack start burning him down holding up a R/W for D.palm and when he goes off thinking the I could just kill him w/ the dmg Ballista was doing with me. DURP* I didn't think about how he could just respond by stacking yet another 14 dmg (which was my life total in this case) on the stack because all of ballistas abilities are instant speed and can be activated an endless amount of times. teaches me to do my homework and know how their deck works and how to beat it. Embarrassing on my part.
Round #5 Living End piloted by Zac 0-2
G1 he bins 2 ceradons and a carabid. I'm just unable to kill him before he kills me in two combat phases.
G2 Finds his brindle boar and casts it turn 2 off a SSG which is enough to slow me down until he can kill me in one combat phase thanks to 2x Horror of the broken lands swinging for 10 dmg.
*Feeling pretty bad at this point having lost to my second favorite deck not to mention salt in the wound considering I was favored in the match up :.(
Round #6 Cheeri0s (didnt catch his name) 2-1
G1 he combos off turn 2 :/
G2 I mulligan until I find a bolt and Eidolon. Stick both and win.
G3 Same as G2 basically keeping up mana for removal and deploying my threats as my resources allow.
Round #7 Mono black 8rack/small pox (Spencer) 2-0
G1 burn him out.
g2 -3 blaze +3 Drev ignoring his Lilly and living off the top managed to Drev a Shrieking Affliction and won the race.
Round #8 Kayla on Eldrazi Tron (uhhhg not again) 2-1
G1 lost to a chalice on 1 and a couple of reality smasher and a huge walking balista w/ her @ 6 life holding a charm only to top deck a land :/
G2 +2 stony silence +3 path (this time!) +4 d.rev. I find a stony shutting off her map, ballista, and basilisk collar. I Drev a map and continue burning her to death ftw.
G3 I keep a hand with a path and a solid curve/clock. She stumbles a bit but deploys a hangarback walker, ballista, and a collar. I start whittling her down and riding my swift spear until she runs into her above board state. Top deck a Stony silence and windmill slam that bad boy <3 <3 <3 I pass and continue to top deck burn her to death FTW.
Round #9 u/g infect (forgot name) 1-2
G1 he had ALL the vines + blossom for all my removal and slowly lost to a 2/3 blighted agent thanks to pendlehaven.
G2 turn 1 bolt the elf, turn 2 eidolon, turn 3 ANOTHER eidolon and he scoops.
G3 I mulligan down to 5 finding removal but it wasn't enough. He just was able to put too many +4/+4 effects on the stack.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Standard // nRG Aggro
Modern // Burn (main) and Living End (secondary) now Jund.
For fun check out my janky combo primer: Turn 3 Grixis Combo
"Can't beat em' Jund em'!"
^Is there any particular reason you don't play anger of the gods instead of slagstorm?
I haven't run into many creatures that I need to exile. Slagstorm's flexibility seems better to me until I find an opponent with some self-recursive creatures. Sometimes I can cast it for direct damage if I didn't end up needing it for creatures. I'll keep it in mind if I run into some more troublesome creatures.
I'm not playing Naya due to budgetary constraints. I don't have Lightning Helix, Boros Charm, some lands et. My plan is to collect these cards eventually to try out white.
Interesting comment above about sideboarding out lands above. Do other people find themselves taking out a land or two on the play for sideboard?
I made a comprehensive sideboarding guide for Burn, and I would like to share it with you in order to get some feedback into my sideboard plan and to help you out with sideboarding.
Also, I would like to notice that this guide is particular to my decklist, and it is on the beginning of the guide.
I hope it helps you out!
I'm not going to give you all of my suggestions, but there are some fundamental disagreements between my sideboard strategy and yours.
On the draw, you can often take out 1-2 lands depending on what your curve looks like after board. Specifically, I run 20 lands because I want to hit 3 lands in my first 9 cards (3 turns). It isn't a coincidence that 3/9 = 20/60. On the draw, you have an extra look (10 cards), so you only need 18 lands to give a similar probability of finding exactly 3 lands in your first 3 turns. If I had bridges in my board or something like that, or if some of my 1-mana spells are getting upgraded to 2-mana spells, then I might shave only 1 or even 0 lands on the draw. Keep this in mind, because it alleviates some of the stress when you feel like you're overboarding.
Against creature decks that gum up the ground and GB(x) midrange decks with infinite removal, I often take out many of my creatures, at least on the draw. Guide and Eidolon suck vs. Merfolk on the draw, similarly Swiftspear and Guide against Jund or Junk on the draw. In these cases, I don't want to draw 0-2 damage cards. Instead, I'd like to see bolts and paths etc. This often leaves you with 8 slots to play with.
Siding out lands is interesting and not something I've thought about, so I decided to check the math.
Assume that you keep half of all 1 landers (that's a rough number), all 2 landers, all 3 landers, and mulligan everything else. The mulligan probability is rather insensitive to the number of lands in that case, 30.4% for 18, 30.3% for 19, and 30.7% for 20. I start from a mulligan criteria, because if you just use a hypergeometric function you include cases where your opener is 0 lands and you draw into 3 of them by T3 and that's an outcome you'll never see in a game because you aren't keeping any 0 landers.
If you use 19 lands, then by T3 on the play you have a 40.55% chance that your keep (given the criteria above) reaches exactly 3 lands. For 20 lands, this is 40.94%. If you've sided down to 18 lands on the draw, then there's a 38.05% chance that your keep reaches exactly 3 lands on T3. If you don't side out any lands, then this is 37.51% and 36.78% for 19 and 20 lands respectively. That's not particularly sensitive to the number of lands you play and that makes sense because you're looking at the peak of the distribution.
Where this is really sensitive is the probability that you have greater than or less than 3 lands on T3. For 18 lands and 3 draws, 28.15% of your keeps are under 3 lands by T3. It's 26.2 for 19 and 23.2 for 20. For more than 3, it's 33.79 for 18, 36.27 for 19, and 39.9 for 20. This makes sense because the tails of the distribution are quite sensitive to the number of lands.
This result is sensitive to the probability of 1 lander keeps. If you keep more 1 landers, then the gap between 18 and 20 lands shrinks, which makes sense because 18 land decks have trouble recovering from a 1 lander keep.
In the end, it's a trade off as to whether you want a higher probability of drawing too few lands or drawing too many lands. Maybe that amounts to personal preference as to how you'd like to lose to variance? I haven't done the math yet to figure out a recovery probability by say T5 given that you didn't hit your T3=3 lands goal on T3. This would all change for mulligans, which are something between 25-40% of your games as determined by your 1-lander mulligan rate.
I just had a few questions regarding your SB. Not challenging your decisions- just curious on thought process.
Why is Bridge in there? I would have thought for Eldrazi decks but you dont bring it in there and only against Shadow on the draw.
What the 2nd Deflecting Palm in there for? I only see you sideboard in 1 every time in your post. Surprising you also don't bring it in Burn mirror.
How was 4x D-Rev vs Eldrazi Tron? If you draw 2 and they don't have Chalice- they are pretty dead. Is it just a necessary concession since Chalice is just a beating you have to run 4 drev?
Lastly- how was Skullcrack and the overall density of 2cc spells? I have seen some lists trim Skullcrack from the maindeck as there isnt a ton of MD Lifegain at the moment.
I know and I wasnt doubting that, you right hence I posted about countering it and how if we do its a game winning move for us in other posts. Some wanted "more" validation so I posted the question in the Magic rulings section just to help ease the concern for the over reaction this card has caused.
This makes me laugh, ok Spell Snare/Dispel. Well I will play Vexing Shusher and make all my spells uncounterable and you lose....then you will play Path to Exile and I will use Lightning Greaves or Guttural Response to counter your counter....we can play this game all day. This is the classic case of "well if you do this then I will do that" LOL....but in game play will you have that card at that time and situation.
Lots of cards get hyped early and nothing comes of them and some hype is real. Just look at the Gideon of the Trials so much hype $40 pre sale at some paces not its like $10. Im not running from Burn cause of this card. Plus we dont know what Red version of this we getting. Black has Bontu's, White has Oketra's lets see what we get and even if we get nothing, Burn is Tier 1 for about 3 years now outside Affinity Burn has been holding strong there for that length of time.
I made a comprehensive sideboarding guide for Burn, and I would like to share it with you in order to get some feedback into my sideboard plan and to help you out with sideboarding.
The guide: https://docs.google.com/document/d/163yoCtAmk4SvS0d2EhtpC-AodwX42YpVwMkpdmuRYZI/edit?usp=sharing
Also, I would like to notice that this guide is particular to my decklist, and it is on the beginning of the guide.
I hope it helps you out!
And I appreciate you finding that validation. I've been swamped lately and really haven't had a chance to keep up with recent MTG news, including that within the threads I follow, so I totally made a rookie mistake and didn't read previous pages for any context. Figures that the one time I don't, there's more than just the same back and forth regarding the merits of Atarka's Command, "burn" lists that are really just zoo with bolt, and a Nacatl-esque rift between those who are for & against Harsh Mentor (assuming that debate is still raging; I actually just noticed it made a few recent tourney lists, so I'll have to dig up the details on that chestnut).
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
I think you misunderstood why I mentioned Death's Shadow and Gurmag Angler, because your Vexing Shusher -> Guttural Response story doesn't make any sense given my initial statement. Your story about Gideon of the Trials doesn't make sense either.
There is a calculus you have to perform when you assess cards for your deck and sideboard. If you could play 400 cards in your sideboard, fine, play whatever super-hoser you have for Burn even though that card is bad in other matchups. Instead, you have 15 slots and you'll have to make some tough decisions for your sideboard. You don't want to fill it up with narrow sideboard cards aimed at a single matchup, because then you're screwed against all of the other matchups.
So, what does Oketra's Last Mercy compete with? Other lifegain cards like Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements. Blessed Alliance gains you some life and kills that lone Death's Shadow you're staring at. Timely gains you 6 life and buys you some blockers. Killing the DS is psuedo-lifegain. The blockers are psuedo-lifegain. Both Blessed Alliance and Timely Reinforcements are legit sideboard cards against Burn and they are versatile enough to apply to other matchups as well. That's what you should be seeking in a sideboard card, because doing that frees up more slots. Oketra's Last Mercy hoses Burn unless it gets Skullcracked and then your opponent gets to untap twice before you get to untap those 3 lands (or more if you play more spells). That's a huge downside against pretty much any other deck, even if you do gain 14 life. If you put OLM in your sideboard, you lose another sideboard card. If that sideboard card is Blessed Alliance, you've lost a key card against Death's Shadow and you'd be making a huge mistake if you bring OLM against Death's Shadow.
It's a true statement that OLM would hose Burn if it sticks but it's garbage in other matchups. It's also a true statement that there are other cards that are good against Burn and good against other matchups. OLM is competing with those cards, and it would be a wise decision to use the more versatile cards.
Im sorry I wasnt directing that at you I was directing that at the other guy. I should have went back to his original post and quoted that. I wasnt calling you out and dont disagree with your DS/Blessed Alliance post.
Cheers
I think I made the same mistake and got mixed up as well. Sorry for that!
Given you were talking to the other guy, the Guttural Response and Gideon story make sense now.
Assuming you don't know what deck you're against playing yet, is Eidolon an automatic drop on turn 2 if you have it? I haven't played with it yet, but it looks like one of the better cards in the deck.
Here's what my Jund list looks like now:
1x Grim Lavamancer
4x Eidolon of the Great Revel
4x Monastery Swiftspear
4x Lava Spike
4x Lightning Bolt
4x Rift Bolt
4x Bump in the Night
3x Shard Volley
3x Searing Blaze
2x Skullcrack
4x Atarka's Command
2x Wooded Foothills
4x Arid Mesa
2x Stomping Ground
1x Blood Crypt
1x Copperline Gorge
2x Blackcleave Cliffs
3x Mountain
1x Searing Blaze
1x Everlasting Torment
1x Fatal Push
4x Blood Moon
4x Destructive Revelry
3x Slagstorm
What do you think of these changes I made compared to the last version:
1) Added 4 Eidolon, taking out Harsh Mentor and Vexing Devil.
2) Taking the advice of someone on this thread, -1 Collateral damage +1 Shard Volley
3) Went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland, more on this later.
4) -1 Bloodcrypt +1 Blackcleaves Cliff
Sideboard
5) +1 Fatal Push, +1 Bloodmoon, +1 ?
I opened a 4th bloodmoon at a mm17 draft. It was working very well as a 3 of against Tron and some very painful/greedy 3-4 color mana bases at the shop. I'm worried that having gone down to 19 lands from 20 this card will have trouble coming out on time. Perhaps I could play Ghost Quarter or a forest in the board as well. Ghost quarter holds them off if I don't draw a Bloodmoon, or can get me to 3 mana to play one. Sideboard suggestions?
This list has been quite fun to pilot. Since it's doing so well in it's infancy, I wonder if I need to be that set on building a R/W/g list. (My only plans are to play at the lgs for the next few months.) The list looses flexibility without white in the deck it seems. It does seem to make up for it slightly in speed. Bump in the Night gives the deck 4 extra 1 cmc burn spells. This in turn has been making one land hands work more often and help pump up Monastery swifterspear more often. It's also part of the reason the deck went from 20 to 19 lands, removing a fetchland. Having one more spell in the deck seems to help a bit.
One of those was "T2 Eidolon or T2: Swift+Spike -> T3 Eidolon". Most said T2 Eidolon, because sticking it is very important and it gets a 2 mana spell out of your hand. That section of the thread is a good read.
Personally, I think you want 2 Blood Crypts given that you have maindeck black. You want to be able to weather a ghost quarter/spreading seas/whatever other destruction and still have fetchable black. It's tough playing Blood Moon in a 3 color deck like this, and I wouldn't advise doing it. If you're having trouble against Tron, I'd play something like Molten Rain instead. You're generally going to be able to hold them off of Tron long enough with that to just beat them.
If you're looking for sideboard slots, Everlasting Torment is probably not worth it considering you already have 6 Skullcrack effects in the maindeck. I'm not too familiar with playing black in Burn, but you probably want more Fatal Push to deal with stuff that's out of bolt range and small enough in CMC for Fatal Push. Is the Slagstorm because of a lot of creature matchups like Elves and Fish?
I'm not going to give you all of my suggestions, but there are some fundamental disagreements between my sideboard strategy and yours.
On the draw, you can often take out 1-2 lands depending on what your curve looks like after board. Specifically, I run 20 lands because I want to hit 3 lands in my first 9 cards (3 turns). It isn't a coincidence that 3/9 = 20/60. On the draw, you have an extra look (10 cards), so you only need 18 lands to give a similar probability of finding exactly 3 lands in your first 3 turns. If I had bridges in my board or something like that, or if some of my 1-mana spells are getting upgraded to 2-mana spells, then I might shave only 1 or even 0 lands on the draw. Keep this in mind, because it alleviates some of the stress when you feel like you're overboarding.
Against creature decks that gum up the ground and GB(x) midrange decks with infinite removal, I often take out many of my creatures, at least on the draw. Guide and Eidolon suck vs. Merfolk on the draw, similarly Swiftspear and Guide against Jund or Junk on the draw. In these cases, I don't want to draw 0-2 damage cards. Instead, I'd like to see bolts and paths etc. This often leaves you with 8 slots to play with.
I don't consider my sideboard strategy to be perfect, far from it. I think we all could benefit from a myriad of sideboard strategies and healthy discussion. That said, I would love to hear how you sideboard =)
This really makes sense, its an insight I didn`t had, as I was used to play with 19 lands and recently switched to the 20 land build. Maybe we could cut a mountain against non-white decks?
Thanks for the feedback! I play only a small lgs so my toughest opponents are Tron, Affinity, and Jund Zoo. My sideboard has the luxury of being able to narrow it's focus against certain decks. There is an elves deck and a bant+red coco deck (and affinity) that put out a lot of creatures. Slagstorm has been stomping these decks. Perhaps I have too many, perhaps too few? Only more experience with my local meta will tell on that.
I have pondered Blood moon quite a bit. When I sideboard in Blood moon I take out Bump in the Night, leaving me with two colors when playing the moon. I switch out black, add 2 destructive revelry to the mainboard (against Tron.) I've considered adding a forest to the sideboard to help, doesn't seem essential so far. (Though I'm worried that going from 20 to 19 lands might give me a hard time playing it.) If I draw a green spell and moon opening hand, I can play the green spell turn 2, moon turn 3. From there, it's only a 10% chance I'd draw a green spell.
I don't need moon against affinity, so it doesn't cause my revelry's to get hung up. So far, other greedy mana base decks I've played wouldn't be hurt by revelry so Bump goes out, moon goes in. The deck now has only 4 atarka's command in off-color cards. I may occasionally draw a command and have to wait for another spell. In the meantime my opponent is so mana screwed they don't present much threat anymore.
The 2 Blood Crypt comment does make sense. I've only just started trying out playing 1. Luckily, people haven't been playing land destruction against me very much at all. I'll remember that if more ld pops up.
Everlasting Torment has been a funny card I've been considering trading out. Grim Lavamancer has been an all-star for me when it shows up. It's been great against affinity and has won me games when I run out of gas. Seems worthwhile against aggro decks and those playing mana dorks.
I have yet to play with Fatal Push in the sideboard. My deck does REALLY want Path to Exile and Push seems like the best black alternative in that slot.
New sideboard: -1 Blood moon, -1 Everlasting Torment, +1 Fatal Push, +1 Molten Rain, +1 Grim Lavamancer
Modern // Burn (main) and Living End (secondary) now Jund.
For fun check out my janky combo primer: Turn 3 Grixis Combo
"Can't beat em' Jund em'!"
Why not go naya it seem like path + helix better than push + bump. Naha have better side cards
Round #1 Eldrazi Tron 1-2 (Derek)
G1 on the play and didn't see any chalices; got the W
G2 got him down to 5 w/ a boros charm in hand but a timely Ulamog exiling my Inspiring Vantages sealed the deal for him.
G3 chalice on 1 AND 2 pretty much stole the game for him.
brought in 2 stoney silence, 2 palms and 4 drevs. probably should have brought in the paths decided not to thinking that pathing a reality smasher seems bad and would be better off with another burn spell instead.
Round #2 Naya Company (Drew) 2-1
G1 didn't see much from him; burned him to death.
G2 expecting to see Kitchen Finx +3 Path -3 lava spike. My goblin guide flips a leyline of sanctity which I then proceed to lose G2 to.
G3 +4 Drev -4 Charms. Burn him down until my Goblin guides are staring down 2x goyfs. He swings in with 4 mana open. I chump expecting him to play more dudes on his second main. Instead he plays a leyline. I respond with a Drev upon its resolution and top deck a Helix for a win.
Round #3 Steve on Tezerator/Thopter combo. 2-1
G1 clunky draws on both our parts. I start flooding once I have him down to 2 life and he starts making thopters.
G2 +2 stony silence +2 Rip +4 Drev -4 seering blaze -4 helix because I dont have to race. Find my SB cards and win.
G3 he finds bridge and 3 copies of welding jar. but that wasn't enough to stop me from burning him to death ftw.
Round #4 Kyle on Vizier Combo/Company 0-2
G1 I waste all my burn on his combo dudes and run out of removal when it comes time for him to eldritch evolution into a E.witness and combo off.
G2 +2 rip +d.palm (which was dumb because I thought I could use it to deflect the Ballista dmg) +3 path. I go on the attack start burning him down holding up a R/W for D.palm and when he goes off thinking the I could just kill him w/ the dmg Ballista was doing with me. DURP* I didn't think about how he could just respond by stacking yet another 14 dmg (which was my life total in this case) on the stack because all of ballistas abilities are instant speed and can be activated an endless amount of times. teaches me to do my homework and know how their deck works and how to beat it. Embarrassing on my part.
Round #5 Living End piloted by Zac 0-2
G1 he bins 2 ceradons and a carabid. I'm just unable to kill him before he kills me in two combat phases.
G2 Finds his brindle boar and casts it turn 2 off a SSG which is enough to slow me down until he can kill me in one combat phase thanks to 2x Horror of the broken lands swinging for 10 dmg.
*Feeling pretty bad at this point having lost to my second favorite deck not to mention salt in the wound considering I was favored in the match up :.(
Round #6 Cheeri0s (didnt catch his name) 2-1
G1 he combos off turn 2 :/
G2 I mulligan until I find a bolt and Eidolon. Stick both and win.
G3 Same as G2 basically keeping up mana for removal and deploying my threats as my resources allow.
Round #7 Mono black 8rack/small pox (Spencer) 2-0
G1 burn him out.
g2 -3 blaze +3 Drev ignoring his Lilly and living off the top managed to Drev a Shrieking Affliction and won the race.
Round #8 Kayla on Eldrazi Tron (uhhhg not again) 2-1
G1 lost to a chalice on 1 and a couple of reality smasher and a huge walking balista w/ her @ 6 life holding a charm only to top deck a land :/
G2 +2 stony silence +3 path (this time!) +4 d.rev. I find a stony shutting off her map, ballista, and basilisk collar. I Drev a map and continue burning her to death ftw.
G3 I keep a hand with a path and a solid curve/clock. She stumbles a bit but deploys a hangarback walker, ballista, and a collar. I start whittling her down and riding my swift spear until she runs into her above board state. Top deck a Stony silence and windmill slam that bad boy <3 <3 <3 I pass and continue to top deck burn her to death FTW.
Round #9 u/g infect (forgot name) 1-2
G1 he had ALL the vines + blossom for all my removal and slowly lost to a 2/3 blighted agent thanks to pendlehaven.
G2 turn 1 bolt the elf, turn 2 eidolon, turn 3 ANOTHER eidolon and he scoops.
G3 I mulligan down to 5 finding removal but it wasn't enough. He just was able to put too many +4/+4 effects on the stack.
Modern // Burn (main) and Living End (secondary) now Jund.
For fun check out my janky combo primer: Turn 3 Grixis Combo
"Can't beat em' Jund em'!"
I haven't run into many creatures that I need to exile. Slagstorm's flexibility seems better to me until I find an opponent with some self-recursive creatures. Sometimes I can cast it for direct damage if I didn't end up needing it for creatures. I'll keep it in mind if I run into some more troublesome creatures.
I'm not playing Naya due to budgetary constraints. I don't have Lightning Helix, Boros Charm, some lands et. My plan is to collect these cards eventually to try out white.
Interesting comment above about sideboarding out lands above. Do other people find themselves taking out a land or two on the play for sideboard?
Siding out lands is interesting and not something I've thought about, so I decided to check the math.
Assume that you keep half of all 1 landers (that's a rough number), all 2 landers, all 3 landers, and mulligan everything else. The mulligan probability is rather insensitive to the number of lands in that case, 30.4% for 18, 30.3% for 19, and 30.7% for 20. I start from a mulligan criteria, because if you just use a hypergeometric function you include cases where your opener is 0 lands and you draw into 3 of them by T3 and that's an outcome you'll never see in a game because you aren't keeping any 0 landers.
If you use 19 lands, then by T3 on the play you have a 40.55% chance that your keep (given the criteria above) reaches exactly 3 lands. For 20 lands, this is 40.94%. If you've sided down to 18 lands on the draw, then there's a 38.05% chance that your keep reaches exactly 3 lands on T3. If you don't side out any lands, then this is 37.51% and 36.78% for 19 and 20 lands respectively. That's not particularly sensitive to the number of lands you play and that makes sense because you're looking at the peak of the distribution.
Where this is really sensitive is the probability that you have greater than or less than 3 lands on T3. For 18 lands and 3 draws, 28.15% of your keeps are under 3 lands by T3. It's 26.2 for 19 and 23.2 for 20. For more than 3, it's 33.79 for 18, 36.27 for 19, and 39.9 for 20. This makes sense because the tails of the distribution are quite sensitive to the number of lands.
This result is sensitive to the probability of 1 lander keeps. If you keep more 1 landers, then the gap between 18 and 20 lands shrinks, which makes sense because 18 land decks have trouble recovering from a 1 lander keep.
In the end, it's a trade off as to whether you want a higher probability of drawing too few lands or drawing too many lands. Maybe that amounts to personal preference as to how you'd like to lose to variance? I haven't done the math yet to figure out a recovery probability by say T5 given that you didn't hit your T3=3 lands goal on T3. This would all change for mulligans, which are something between 25-40% of your games as determined by your 1-lander mulligan rate.
I just had a few questions regarding your SB. Not challenging your decisions- just curious on thought process.
Why is Bridge in there? I would have thought for Eldrazi decks but you dont bring it in there and only against Shadow on the draw.
What the 2nd Deflecting Palm in there for? I only see you sideboard in 1 every time in your post. Surprising you also don't bring it in Burn mirror.
How was 4x D-Rev vs Eldrazi Tron? If you draw 2 and they don't have Chalice- they are pretty dead. Is it just a necessary concession since Chalice is just a beating you have to run 4 drev?
Lastly- how was Skullcrack and the overall density of 2cc spells? I have seen some lists trim Skullcrack from the maindeck as there isnt a ton of MD Lifegain at the moment.
Thanks!
Isnt Rest in Peace better than Relic?
4th inspiring vantage really good? Didnt have same problem as Copperline Gorge, when draw it mid/late?