Zoo promoted from Developing Competitive / Deck Creation to Tier 2
Azban promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1
Suicide Zoo, Jeskai Control and merfolk dropped from Tier 1 to Tier 2
Elves, Kiki chord dropped from Tier 2 to Developing Competitive
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Overview
The MTGS Modern Forums are a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Tier 1" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. These are the most-played decks across the format, the decks that you must be able to beat if you are to seriously compete in Modern tournaments.
The subforum is updated on the first Monday of every month with data from the previous 2 months. Data includes all publicly published MTGO dailies, all paper events of any size, the T8 and T16 of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events, and the day 2 metagames of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Tier 1" were decided on by staff and forum users and reflect best practices in statistical analysis. The criteria were decided on in August and September of 2013, and updated a number of times throughout 2014. They were most recently revisited and revised in January 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Criteria
TIER 1 POINT CUTOFF: 9 (updated 6/12) TIER 2 POINT CUTOFF: 3 (updated 6/12)
Tournament finishes for all decks in the format are tracked in the Modern Nexus Metagame Spreadsheet. All decks receive 0-3 points in four separate categories, and then receive a total score based on the sum of their points. The decks with the highest points are considered Tier 1. The categories, and the source(s) for that data, are listed below:
Paper: All publicly published paper events posted to over a dozen sites like TCDecks, happymtg, mtgtop8, mtgdecks.net, and many more. All results are aggregated in our spreadsheet.
Major Paper T8/T16: All T8 and T16 decks from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Major Paper Day 2 metagames: All day 2 metagames from Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Points are awarded in each category based on a 95% confidence interval for average prevalences and how far outside of that confidence interval a deck’s prevalence falls. This gives us a statistically supported way of determining whether a deck is overperforming or underperforming, in a way that is transparent to all users and more “objective” than just grading decks based on personal preference. As an added bonus, the cutoffs are dynamic based on the current metagame, instead of semi-arbitrary cutoffs that are relics of older metagames no longer applicable today. So in one update, the 95% confidence interval for average prevalence on MTGO might be .95%-1.05%, with a standard deviation of 1.5%. But in another update, that interval might be 1%-1.5% and the standard deviation could be 2%. This higher variance metagame would naturally have different cutoffs than the lower variance one.
Finally, after all decks have been awarded a point total, we take the average of that point total and then set a Tier 1 cutoff at 2 standard deviations over that average total. Any deck with points that exceed that cutoff is considered tier 1. So if the average score of all decks is 4 points with a standard deviation of 1, the Tier 1 cutoff will be set at 6 (4 + 1 + 1) for that update.
Here is the system that is used to award points to decks in the four different categories:
MTGO
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
Paper
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
GP/PT T8/T16
1 point: Prevalence > average weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
GP/PT Day 2
1 point: Prevalence > average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev prevalence
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions about the system, feel free to discuss them in the Modern Metagame Thread in Modern General.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Current Decks (5/1/2016 - 5/31/2016)
The following decks represent the current Tier 1 of Modern. Their point totals are listed next to them, along with how many points they earned in each individual category. For instance, "Affinity: 10 (3,2,2,2)" can be read as Affinity has 10 points total, with 3 for its MTGO performances, 2 for its Paper performances, 2 for its GP T8/T16 performances, and 2 for its GP Day 2 performances.
Hi, that would be old info. Youll see it says updated 6/12, which was close to half a year ago. I don't edit Ktkens posts too hard, since hes the one who tracks data, but I'm the one changing the tierings lately, but its all based on ktken's data, since he is the one who runs modern nexus. Which is where the tiering comes from.
Id prefer for a link to his site directly and saying flat out the data comes from there, since I'm not qualified to update those statistics, but again, its ktkens posts, so I won't do that without his say so on the matter.
Rest assured, yes, those decks have been demoted properly.
It's been a while since the last update and we don't even have the numbers for October yet. Is anyone following up with Modern Nexus to get this update?
Feel free to delete this comment once it's no longer relevant.
The metagame update was released on Modern Nexus on January 9th, but none of the relevant forums have been updated in a week. When will this be happening?
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
CRUGGCCCCCCCGBGBGBCCCCCCCBBUWC MODERN – LANTERN(aka Fateseal or Barbershop) Primer–Subreddit–Facebook–Decklist–Gameplay Thnkr's Content:Gameplay–Datasheet Each eye sees a different possibility for tomorrow. CWUBBCCCCCCCBGBGBGCCCCCCCGGURC
In a non rotating format, weekly changes of data is not a good system. We already figured that part out with ktken around. Honestly, 3 months of data is better.
The human element is also not the greatest. Ktken used to do lists before he got busy, the guy he passed it off to got busy and stopped. We need an automated system more than this.
Criteria, selection, and decks
SPREADSHEET: January 2016 - December 2016
FORUM LAST UPDATED: 10/24/2016
FORUM NEXT UPDATED: 11/14/2016
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHANGELOG: UPDATED 10/24/2016
Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Overview
The MTGS Modern Forums are a hub for discussion, debate, and decklists on the best decks in the Modern format. The "Tier 1" subforum reflects the Tier 1 decks of the metagame. These are the most-played decks across the format, the decks that you must be able to beat if you are to seriously compete in Modern tournaments.
The subforum is updated on the first Monday of every month with data from the previous 2 months. Data includes all publicly published MTGO dailies, all paper events of any size, the T8 and T16 of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events, and the day 2 metagames of Grand Prix and Pro Tour events.
Criteria for what makes a deck "Tier 1" were decided on by staff and forum users and reflect best practices in statistical analysis. The criteria were decided on in August and September of 2013, and updated a number of times throughout 2014. They were most recently revisited and revised in January 2015.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Criteria
TIER 1 POINT CUTOFF: 9 (updated 6/12)
TIER 2 POINT CUTOFF: 3 (updated 6/12)
Tournament finishes for all decks in the format are tracked in the Modern Nexus Metagame Spreadsheet. All decks receive 0-3 points in four separate categories, and then receive a total score based on the sum of their points. The decks with the highest points are considered Tier 1. The categories, and the source(s) for that data, are listed below:
Finally, after all decks have been awarded a point total, we take the average of that point total and then set a Tier 1 cutoff at 2 standard deviations over that average total. Any deck with points that exceed that cutoff is considered tier 1. So if the average score of all decks is 4 points with a standard deviation of 1, the Tier 1 cutoff will be set at 6 (4 + 1 + 1) for that update.
Here is the system that is used to award points to decks in the four different categories:
MTGO
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
Paper
1 point: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > upper 95% interval for average + 2stdev prevalence
GP/PT T8/T16
1 point: Prevalence > average weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev for weighted showings of T8/T16 decks
GP/PT Day 2
1 point: Prevalence > average prevalence
2 points: Prevalence > average + 1stdev prevalence
3 points: Prevalence > average + 2stdev prevalence
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions about the system, feel free to discuss them in the Modern Metagame Thread in Modern General.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 / Decks to Beat - Current Decks (5/1/2016 - 5/31/2016)
The following decks represent the current Tier 1 of Modern. Their point totals are listed next to them, along with how many points they earned in each individual category. For instance, "Affinity: 10 (3,2,2,2)" can be read as Affinity has 10 points total, with 3 for its MTGO performances, 2 for its Paper performances, 2 for its GP T8/T16 performances, and 2 for its GP Day 2 performances.
seems to be inconsistent with:
and
Edit:
Nvm, see the updated spreadsheet
8 8. Jeskai Control: 6 (2, 1, 2, 2)
Id prefer for a link to his site directly and saying flat out the data comes from there, since I'm not qualified to update those statistics, but again, its ktkens posts, so I won't do that without his say so on the matter.
Rest assured, yes, those decks have been demoted properly.
The metagame update was released on Modern Nexus on January 9th, but none of the relevant forums have been updated in a week. When will this be happening?
MODERN – LANTERN (aka Fateseal or Barbershop)
Primer – Subreddit – Facebook – Decklist – Gameplay
Thnkr's Content: Gameplay – Datasheet
Each eye sees a different possibility for tomorrow.
CWUBBCCCCCCCBGBGBGCCCCCCCGGURC
If you're looking for a good place to find tier lists, Main Phase MTG has some good data on the subject and they update their list every Sunday.
The human element is also not the greatest. Ktken used to do lists before he got busy, the guy he passed it off to got busy and stopped. We need an automated system more than this.