Baltimore is over and it looks like the format is beginning to stabilize from the bans. Twin and Junk did well of course, more than likely due to overepresentation, but the rest of the field seemed to shut down the fast aggro decks (burn, affintiy, infect). A lot of midrange and control, which is ofc good for us. Also an uptick in the presence of Jund, which is a much better matchup than Junk. If this trend continues and we see a shift to a more removal-heavy, CA-oriented metagame, my predictions are:
1) Relics value increases. Tarmogoyf, along with Tasigur are all over the place: Sultai control, Junk, Jund, TarmoTwin, RUG Moons, Grixis. Discard/counters + goyf beats was a dominant strategy. Relic buying time against the beaters and seeing more of your deck in the face of disruption is valuable.
2) If fast aggro is indeed being contained by these slower decks, the value of Spellskite, Pyroclasm, and Nature's Claim, at least in the MD, decreases. Of course all of these cards are all-stars and long-since staples of the deck, but it may be time to look at reverting to more consistency in the MD rather than the necessary interaction we've been playing.
3) Blue control-ish decks made an appearance, along with Twin still being a major player. If the format continues to slow than we will no doubt see a resurgence of Scapeshift, which is a terrible matchup without dedicated hate. This may signal for more Defense Grids and Boils, although we still see no combo so I have reservations about Slaughter Games.
This is all theory-crafting and I don't think the entire format is going to shift due to the results of one tournament, but it is very well possible things are stabilizing and these super-fast "cheese" decks are finally being put in check. In the meantime the online meta is still fast as ever so I won't be making any adjustments until I see statistics start to change. Overall, if I'm right (or close to right) then I feel good about the positioning of Tron against a slower, less insta-kill infested meta.
I don't know, I think Spellskite is staying good. Let's look at the metagame for Day 2 in order of most popular to least popular for all decks that had more than 1 copy:
Junk
Twin (all variants together)
Burn
Infect
Jund
Affinity
Auras
Spellskite is excellent against Twin, Burn, Infect, and Auras. Against Junk, Jund, and Affinity it isn't the best card you have, but it isn't dead against any of them. So Spellskite is either excellent or okay against the top 7 decks. I think that for any meta I'm not pretty sure of (e.g. a local tournament) I'd be packing 4x Spellskite maindeck.
My Tron deck lost to something rather annoying. Basically a turn 3 Acidic Slime, turn 4 Dominus, and I couldn't stabilize against all the ghost quarters and land destruction. It was annoying, but rather good. Went 5-1 overall.
The deck ran something like this:
Burning Trees, Elves, devotion up... Acidic Slime, the Dominus that destroys lands when it hits, ghost quarters, and plow under. Totally wrecked me.
Baltimore is over and it looks like the format is beginning to stabilize from the bans. Twin and Junk did well of course, more than likely due to overepresentation, but the rest of the field seemed to shut down the fast aggro decks (burn, affintiy, infect). A lot of midrange and control, which is ofc good for us. Also an uptick in the presence of Jund, which is a much better matchup than Junk. If this trend continues and we see a shift to a more removal-heavy, CA-oriented metagame, my predictions are:
1) Relics value increases. Tarmogoyf, along with Tasigur are all over the place: Sultai control, Junk, Jund, TarmoTwin, RUG Moons, Grixis. Discard/counters + goyf beats was a dominant strategy. Relic buying time against the beaters and seeing more of your deck in the face of disruption is valuable.
2) If fast aggro is indeed being contained by these slower decks, the value of Spellskite, Pyroclasm, and Nature's Claim, at least in the MD, decreases. Of course all of these cards are all-stars and long-since staples of the deck, but it may be time to look at reverting to more consistency in the MD rather than the necessary interaction we've been playing.
3) Blue control-ish decks made an appearance, along with Twin still being a major player. If the format continues to slow than we will no doubt see a resurgence of Scapeshift, which is a terrible matchup without dedicated hate. This may signal for more Defense Grids and Boils, although we still see no combo so I have reservations about Slaughter Games.
This is all theory-crafting and I don't think the entire format is going to shift due to the results of one tournament, but it is very well possible things are stabilizing and these super-fast "cheese" decks are finally being put in check. In the meantime the online meta is still fast as ever so I won't be making any adjustments until I see statistics start to change. Overall, if I'm right (or close to right) then I feel good about the positioning of Tron against a slower, less insta-kill infested meta.
I disagree with this assessment completely. This was one tournament, where 12 Twin decks made the Top 64 and 75% of them converted into the Top 32, then 33% of those converted into the Top 8 (each time converting significantly above the cutoff %). The real takeaway from this format is that Twin is as dominant as ever, and Fabiano and a couple others have come up with crazy UB-based control strategies that may or may not have a larger impact on the game as a whole. I think at the moment Relic remains extremely mediocre, and Spellskite has near-infinite value against most decks that aren't "blue-black control,"
So I promised you guys to make a report of my monthly matches this weekend.
First of all.... It was terrible.. Beyond imagination.. I made a 0-3 drop with 3 rounds left. My deck, seriously, raped me..
Report Round 1: A guy of 14 years old, first modern tournament. He played a homebrew Green White Hatebears??
Game 1: My firt hand was 2 Forest and a Ghost Quarter with some cantrippping.. No way Iam keeping that blind. Mul to 6. No lands.. Thanks deck. Mul to 5. Hmm it was a decent hand.
It came to beatdown plans of him with some flyers. Guess it was Flickerwhisp. He played the guy that I needed to pay 2 more mana to search my library. I had a Wurmcoil on the BF. 16 Life and he could hit me for 11. Wurmcoil was tapped. I had to make a choice between Eye of Ugin to Emrakul with 14 mana active in the next turm with a possible of any topdeck land. Or drop my 2nd Wurmcoil. I chose to go for the Eye plan. He topdecked in his turn a Aven Mindcensor. So he hitted me for 11. went to 5. Couldnt search my Emrakul and he had more than 5 damage true the air. Loss....
Game 2: Boarded in all red hate cards: Pyro and SS. Begin hand was oke. 1 Tron piece and come action. But he made a quick play. He boarded in Golemn fixer? Dont know the card. He made a 3/3 Golemn. So his beatdown came fast. After that a loxodon smiter. I made a quick play with my Skite. But he Flickerwhisped it. So 1 turn was a free hit for him. After that i could stabalise with my Wurmcoil. But yes ofcourse he topdecked his 1 of 2 path to exile. Bye bye lifegain and game 2. Round 1: 0-2 against homebrew.
Round 2: Experienct Abzan player.
Game 1: Mul to 6, hand was decent after that. He had quick beatdown with a Goyf and a Rhino, while i couldnt fix my Tron alive. So I made a misplay with first droppping an O-stone before searching for an alive Tron with Ancient Stirrings. I found my piece, so i could destroy all the threats. Misplay and he killed me for it. 0-1
Game 2: SB as Abzan should be, come Claims and Relics in. First hand in 5 rounds that was great. Turn 4 Ugin in play, bomb! He won that round me. He only did a Stone Silence to slow me down.
Game 3: Didnt SB again, deck was solid enough after game 2. Here comes the hate. Again the same %^^@%! hands with no Tron. I guess I hate the 21 lands atm. To much non Tron lands. And my draws where awfull. GQ into a Grove into a Forest into ye don't be afraid.. Another Forest. Great game.. Lost with 2-1 from a 70/30 matchup.
Round 3: UR Twin.
Game 1: Lost the High Roll of the dice. So on the draw against Twin. Turn 3 Exarch, Turn 4 Twin he won.
Game 2: Can make this a long story but it was a repetition of game 1. Only a few turn's later with him backup with a mana leak for my Nature's claim.
All and all it was a awfull day for me. After hours and hours of testing this was the result. So I want to change my MB. I am serious thinking about a Ulamog MB. He comes in faster and can win a game to.
Sorry to hear about your bad run. Some hints for the future; against any deck where I'm expecting Aven Mindcensor, I'll keep it in mind and generally only search when they're Hellbent/tapped down/or I absolutely need to. Searching for Emrakul on your own turn might've won you the game vs. Hatebears (though you still have to worry about LD, so Wurmcoil could also have been the play depending on the boardstate).
As for the Abzan game, the sequencing play is a classic mistake with this deck. It's a mistake that really sucks to make (and I still make those kinds of mistakes from time to time), but you just have to keep on top of it and play to your outs.
Finally, about running 21 lands - I like it, but I won't hesitate to SB out 1 Forest/1 Quarter/1 Grove depending on which of the three is worse in the MU. Running the 21 is a pregame hedge as to the types of lands you'll need to see in that MU, so SBing one out shouldn't be something you feel bad about doing. Additionally, unless you replace the 21st land with a cantrip, it won't help you assemble Tron any more than if it was some other card (in fact, it's slightly better in the sense that they still let you hit land drops for Scryings/etc). Not a fan of Relic in the Abzan MU because of how often it gets hit by Stony Silence, but YMMV.
Twin's just a miserable MU post-board, and only Spellskites and Combusts really matter post. I might bring in 1-2 Claims, but the fact that they do very little against the aggro plan, get countered, and require you to constantly keep up GG (thanks to Mite/Exarch taps) make me not a huge fan.
Ulamog's a good card, and he's won me my share of games - he's a lot better than Sundering Titan if you don't have the Cavern out (I only like Titan w/Cavern, as running a Titan out almost never resolves against the Uxx decks you want it against - and needing Cavern to cast your spells puts you in an awkward spot). He's amazing against Remand, where you turn their Remand into a constant 2-for-1.
Sorry to hear about your bad run. Some hints for the future; against any deck where I'm expecting Aven Mindcensor, I'll keep it in mind and generally only search when they're Hellbent/tapped down/or I absolutely need to. Searching for Emrakul on your own turn might've won you the game vs. Hatebears (though you still have to worry about LD, so Wurmcoil could also have been the play depending on the boardstate).
As for the Abzan game, the sequencing play is a classic mistake with this deck. It's a mistake that really sucks to make (and I still make those kinds of mistakes from time to time), but you just have to keep on top of it and play to your outs.
Finally, about running 21 lands - I like it, but I won't hesitate to SB out 1 Forest/1 Quarter/1 Grove depending on which of the three is worse in the MU. Running the 21 is a pregame hedge as to the types of lands you'll need to see in that MU, so SBing one out shouldn't be something you feel bad about doing. Additionally, unless you replace the 21st land with a cantrip, it won't help you assemble Tron any more than if it was some other card (in fact, it's slightly better in the sense that they still let you hit land drops for Scryings/etc). Not a fan of Relic in the Abzan MU because of how often it gets hit by Stony Silence, but YMMV.
Twin's just a miserable MU post-board, and only Spellskites and Combusts really matter post. I might bring in 1-2 Claims, but the fact that they do very little against the aggro plan, get countered, and require you to constantly keep up GG (thanks to Mite/Exarch taps) make me not a huge fan.
Ulamog's a good card, and he's won me my share of games - he's a lot better than Sundering Titan if you don't have the Cavern out (I only like Titan w/Cavern, as running a Titan out almost never resolves against the Uxx decks you want it against - and needing Cavern to cast your spells puts you in an awkward spot). He's amazing against Remand, where you turn their Remand into a constant 2-for-1.
Oke thanks, ye but the homebrew Hatebears was a surprise what he boarded against me. It was by name a 'resectfully noobisch' modern player. Taking up a deck of his brother for the first time. So many frustration there for me.
I guess after the last weekend with SCG i do not know where to put my MB in. What spot i like to be in right now. It feels awkward to MB a lot of aggro removal. But it feels awkward not to. So what about just go with the flow and try to MB an Ulamog, All is dust and Ugin? Just for the versatility of the deck. IMO the 21nd land is just to much. I guess 1 Forest will make the trick work for me right now. Orrrrrrrrrrrrr just 1 Ghost Quarter and the other one SB. Just because my Meta is infested with Abzan and other MR decks. Just 1 Infect, 1 Burn, 1 Amulet, and some other. But I realy do not know where to be right now. Even after yesterday I am confused..
Second GQ and Forest are both meta calls so you can relegate one to the SB if you feel like you want to (second Forest for Moon/Quarter/Path, second GQ for Infect/Tron/manlands). Running 1 Forest vs Abzan can be awkward because it can turn their Paths into Swords with a bad topdeck on your part.
Ugin's really good against Abzan, and if you feel like that's your whole meta, then it could be correct to run more than 2. Ulamog's more for the blue MUs than the midrange ones; vs Midrange you'd rather have Sundering Titan, because Titan matches up much better vs. Path. Ulamog on the other hand is far more important vs. grindy blue MUs, where he'll buy you tons of times vs counters by destroying their threats/manabase.
Ugin's great against most things that aren't combo, so if you feel like there's no combo, run more. But he's almost useless vs Twin, so that's something to also consider.
So...
The more I play in this meta, the more I think red simply isn't what Tron needs in order to succeed. Pyroclasm is meh. Combust, while amazing and one of my favorite sideboard cards, doesn't feel good enough to dedicate to red. I know that we saw some GW lists that did well at last week's GP. I'm thinking about trying one of those out once I dig out some Paths. Other than that, though, how much though has been given to UG Tron? I was perusing SCG's decklist archive and found this:
It's a recent list, and there is an older one too from January. Both by the same guy, both did well. I like the idea of splashing blue, but I guess my question is...what're Tron's best options? Some of this stuff I'm not crazy about (Kozilek, cutting a Karn), but it's gotta mostly be good enough, right? I'm just not sure how to interpret, build or even play something like this.
Then again, maybe GW is just the better option. Instant-speed creature removal and burn/aggro hate which is where we need to be. Red just isn't cutting it anymore, and I want to try moving into one of these other splashes. I'm just not sure which is best.
Super IQs are relatively small events, but the list is interesting.
The problem right now is that Splinter Twin is currently the #1 deck in the format. In every other Modern, the #1 deck has been either Pod or Jund. Having Twin as the deck to beat make this decks prospects much worse. Additionally, Pyroclasm is near-useless, making the red splash also awkward at best.
However, our tools to combat Twin are low, especially MD. Combust is a card that helps out post-board, but our pre-board options are limited to almost uniquely Spellskite; I agree with Seth that 4 MD Spellskite's are honestly the only real way to go in the near-future.
Also, as to splashing another color: Tron's power has almost always lied in its painless manabase. Giving that up makes many MUs worse, including ironically Twin due to their beat down strategy. GW allows us some flexibility with Razorverge, but neither GU or GB offer a painless multicolor land. Running painlands are the best of a bad bunch, but the tools offered by blue and black aren't too exciting; this isn't a deck that can take advantage of Thoughtseize or cheap counters. Running white for Path is likely the best we can do, but is this worth giving up on Taiga and SB Combust for? It's hard to say.
True Slivortal. But is red the way? Why not just mono green? We can run more removal? But what can we do in mono green vs our poor matchups? I guess white and blue are not the way to go atm
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
True Slivortal. But is red the way? Why not just mono green? We can run more removal? But what can we do in mono green vs our poor matchups? I guess white and blue are not the way to go atm
There's not much reason to go mono green over Gr, is the main problem. We're running 8 stars anyway, and the Groves are Taigas in the deck. That gives us a free red splash, meaning that we might as well run Combusts in the SB. The only real "benefit" going mono green gives us is slightly more resilience to Blood Moon and more lands to hit off Paths/GQs, and that doesn't seem a price worth paying while Twin is as big of a deck as it is.
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
Agree completely. This deck's very poorly positioned right now, and will continue to be until if and when Twin is knocked off its throne.
[quote from="ktkenshinx »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/tier-2-modern/220174-g-r-tron?comment=3682"]RG Tron moved to Tier 2.
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
Agree completely. This deck's very poorly positioned right now, and will continue to be until if and when Twin is knocked off its throne.
Tron may have dropped into the Tier 2 category according to the forum criteria, but it is worth pointing out it is the closest of all the Tier 2 decks to fulfilling the Tier 1 criteria.
[quote from="ktkenshinx »" url="http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/modern/tier-2-modern/220174-g-r-tron?comment=3682"]RG Tron moved to Tier 2.
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
Agree completely. This deck's very poorly positioned right now, and will continue to be until if and when Twin is knocked off its throne.
Tron may have dropped into the Tier 2 category according to the forum criteria, but it is worth pointing out it is the closest of all the Tier 2 decks to fulfilling the Tier 1 criteria.
</blockquote>It's definitely the closest to Tier 1, but what's keeping it out of Tier 1 is the fact that Twin is so dominant.
Lol at the doomsaying. The deck is severely underplayed and the metagame hasn't been this teeming with bad-matchups in Modern's existence. Twin is not the primary reason for poor-placements. Twin is easily the most beatable of our common bad matchups. Burn is a significantly worse matchup and Infect is very difficult to beat without a chunk of hate; both decks are very common. There is no combination of cards we can play that can beat a good draw from Burn and Infect has game-winning lines of play also.
The metagame can't stagnate like this. Baltimore may have been a small-ish tournament but there were a lot of great minds playing for cash. If don't see some writing on the wall with that many control-ish decks in the top 32, then jump off the train and go play something different.
The meta will slow down, things are wonky right now. Just keep playing and tuning.
Lol at the doomsaying. The deck is severely underplayed and the metagame hasn't been this teeming with bad-matchups in Modern's existence. Twin is not the primary reason for poor-placements. Twin is easily the most beatable of our common bad matchups. Burn is a significantly worse matchup and Infect is very difficult to beat without a chunk of hate; both decks are very common.
Burn significantly worse? I'd disagree on that. The problem with Twin is that we have trouble beating its combo... but it never has to bother with it and can go for the tempo plan. The issue you have with Twin is that you can bring in all the hate you want... and still just die to a repeatedly attacking Pestermite. Sure, something like Combust can kill it, but you spend it on the Pestermite before they cast the Splinter Twin and you open yourself up to the possibility of another creature being cast and them comboing off with it. That's the problem with Twin: Cards that are good at stopping the combo aren't particularly effective at stopping their tempo plan, and cards that are good at stopping their tempo plan don't help against the combo.
Burn at least gets utterly destroyed by a single Wurmcoil Engine attack.
There is no combination of cards we can play that can beat a good draw from Burn and Infect has game-winning lines of play also.
It's false that there's no combination of cards we can play that can beat a good draw from Burn. I'd like to see a Burn deck win if you have double Leyline of Sanctity at the start and Pyroclasm to kill off any creatures they do have. Obviously that's a very extreme example, but you stated "no combination of cards" can beat it.
More plausibly, though, we really do have a good amount of cards to handle Burn. I don't think I've ever seen a Burn deck recover from even a single successful Wurmcoil Engine swing. Not to mention how crazy Feed the Clan is if you have a Wurmcoil Engine out... at a recent tournament I heard a Burn player complaining about that card (admittedly, it was when Junk was playing it, but it's as good for us).
In fact, Burn has a lot of trouble beating a good draw from us. Turn 3 Wurmcoil Engine is absolutely backbreaking to a Burn deck, and even the few outs they do have (Deflecting Palm or Skullcrack in response to an attack) get thwarted by a Nature's Claim on the Wurmcoil Engine in response.
Fun thing to note, though: Splinter Twin, Burn, and Infect are all weak to Spellskite. The card really is crazy good in the current metagame.
Well time to sell off the deck, never even got to play it. Probably a good thing considering everything is tron hostile
Just hang on to it. The deck isn't getting any worse. It is well positioned against Junk/Abzan or whatever the flavour of the week the naming schemes are.
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My Modern decks: B/R/G Living End G/R/B G/R Tron R/G U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
@ Lord Seth: I probably should have put "reasonable" before "combination" but I feel like we aren't playing the same deck if you feel that Wurmcoil landing is game over against burn. The issue is that with a great draw we still land Wurmcoil on turn 3 and assuming we spent the first couple turns playing tutors that means they got in for at least a couple swings with Guide/Swiftspear which piles on dmg. Even if you land the Wurmcoil they have so ways to effectively deal with it: Skullcrack, Revelry/Smash, block and bolt their dude, on top of untapping, ignoring wurmcoil, and burning you out. What happens if you don't have turn 3 Tron and don't land Wurmcoil early-game? What happens if you don't have Wurmcoil? You're fighting against burn with Skites, awkward lifegain (claim), and red removal. Skite is certainly good against Burn but he doesn't win the game by himself.
Current builds are on Molten Rain in the SB which is simply too much to handle. Feed the clan is not remotely as effective in our deck as it is in a deck that plays Goyf and Tas. FtC + Wurmcoil is obviously nuts, but this isn't something that you can count on happening. Claiming your Wurmcoil in response to their hate is not something you can count on happening. Not saying Burn is unbeatable but until you start dedicating slots narrow hate like FtC our win % is absolutely not above 40 and even with lifegain what do you get? An extra 10-15% at the cost of a weaker deck against the field?
There was an overreaction to my post on predictions for the future. Those were educated guesses based on observations from a good tournament. I'm not advocating removing Skite, Pyro, or Claim. I simply said that if this showing of slower decks becomes a trend, then modifying the MD to account for it would be the direction to take. I said I'm not modifying my list until I see a shift in the meta, so I'm still playing 3 Skite MD with one in the board. I never said "cut spellskite card is trash now". If there is anybody in this thread who knows the incredible value of Skite against a field of Twin, Burn, and Infect it is me.
All I'm saying is that if the format slows down and the fast decks drop in presence, you would be obstinate not to account for it in deckbuilding.
Hi all, just finished pricing together my tron deck been playing it locally but I keep losing to burn player. Can some experienced players please give me some pointer on playing against burn and using the deck to the fullest. I read through the forum but as time passes a lot of the info on how to play against certain deck types becomes outdated. Especially with all the new cards being introduced. I love this deck and really want to do my part in making it better.
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
In the glass half full sense, we get to keep ignoring ban hammer concerns while annoying our local and online meta games.
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1) Relics value increases. Tarmogoyf, along with Tasigur are all over the place: Sultai control, Junk, Jund, TarmoTwin, RUG Moons, Grixis. Discard/counters + goyf beats was a dominant strategy. Relic buying time against the beaters and seeing more of your deck in the face of disruption is valuable.
2) If fast aggro is indeed being contained by these slower decks, the value of Spellskite, Pyroclasm, and Nature's Claim, at least in the MD, decreases. Of course all of these cards are all-stars and long-since staples of the deck, but it may be time to look at reverting to more consistency in the MD rather than the necessary interaction we've been playing.
3) Blue control-ish decks made an appearance, along with Twin still being a major player. If the format continues to slow than we will no doubt see a resurgence of Scapeshift, which is a terrible matchup without dedicated hate. This may signal for more Defense Grids and Boils, although we still see no combo so I have reservations about Slaughter Games.
This is all theory-crafting and I don't think the entire format is going to shift due to the results of one tournament, but it is very well possible things are stabilizing and these super-fast "cheese" decks are finally being put in check. In the meantime the online meta is still fast as ever so I won't be making any adjustments until I see statistics start to change. Overall, if I'm right (or close to right) then I feel good about the positioning of Tron against a slower, less insta-kill infested meta.
Junk
Twin (all variants together)
Burn
Infect
Jund
Affinity
Auras
Spellskite is excellent against Twin, Burn, Infect, and Auras. Against Junk, Jund, and Affinity it isn't the best card you have, but it isn't dead against any of them. So Spellskite is either excellent or okay against the top 7 decks. I think that for any meta I'm not pretty sure of (e.g. a local tournament) I'd be packing 4x Spellskite maindeck.
The deck ran something like this:
Burning Trees, Elves, devotion up... Acidic Slime, the Dominus that destroys lands when it hits, ghost quarters, and plow under. Totally wrecked me.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
As for the Abzan game, the sequencing play is a classic mistake with this deck. It's a mistake that really sucks to make (and I still make those kinds of mistakes from time to time), but you just have to keep on top of it and play to your outs.
Finally, about running 21 lands - I like it, but I won't hesitate to SB out 1 Forest/1 Quarter/1 Grove depending on which of the three is worse in the MU. Running the 21 is a pregame hedge as to the types of lands you'll need to see in that MU, so SBing one out shouldn't be something you feel bad about doing. Additionally, unless you replace the 21st land with a cantrip, it won't help you assemble Tron any more than if it was some other card (in fact, it's slightly better in the sense that they still let you hit land drops for Scryings/etc). Not a fan of Relic in the Abzan MU because of how often it gets hit by Stony Silence, but YMMV.
Twin's just a miserable MU post-board, and only Spellskites and Combusts really matter post. I might bring in 1-2 Claims, but the fact that they do very little against the aggro plan, get countered, and require you to constantly keep up GG (thanks to Mite/Exarch taps) make me not a huge fan.
Ulamog's a good card, and he's won me my share of games - he's a lot better than Sundering Titan if you don't have the Cavern out (I only like Titan w/Cavern, as running a Titan out almost never resolves against the Uxx decks you want it against - and needing Cavern to cast your spells puts you in an awkward spot). He's amazing against Remand, where you turn their Remand into a constant 2-for-1.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
Ugin's really good against Abzan, and if you feel like that's your whole meta, then it could be correct to run more than 2. Ulamog's more for the blue MUs than the midrange ones; vs Midrange you'd rather have Sundering Titan, because Titan matches up much better vs. Path. Ulamog on the other hand is far more important vs. grindy blue MUs, where he'll buy you tons of times vs counters by destroying their threats/manabase.
Ugin's great against most things that aren't combo, so if you feel like there's no combo, run more. But he's almost useless vs Twin, so that's something to also consider.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
The more I play in this meta, the more I think red simply isn't what Tron needs in order to succeed. Pyroclasm is meh. Combust, while amazing and one of my favorite sideboard cards, doesn't feel good enough to dedicate to red. I know that we saw some GW lists that did well at last week's GP. I'm thinking about trying one of those out once I dig out some Paths. Other than that, though, how much though has been given to UG Tron? I was perusing SCG's decklist archive and found this:
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
3 Karn Liberated
2 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Forest
1 Island
4 Breeding Pool
2 Ghost Quarter
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower
1 Eye of Ugin
4 Chromatic Star
3 Expedition Map
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Cyclonic Rift
2 Remand
4 Ancient Stirrings
3 Explore
3 Sylvan Scrying
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Pithing Needle
2 Torpor Orb
1 Witchbane Orb
1 Spellskite
1 Sundering Titan
2 Guttural Response
3 Nature's Claim
1 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 All Is Dust
It's a recent list, and there is an older one too from January. Both by the same guy, both did well. I like the idea of splashing blue, but I guess my question is...what're Tron's best options? Some of this stuff I'm not crazy about (Kozilek, cutting a Karn), but it's gotta mostly be good enough, right? I'm just not sure how to interpret, build or even play something like this.
Then again, maybe GW is just the better option. Instant-speed creature removal and burn/aggro hate which is where we need to be. Red just isn't cutting it anymore, and I want to try moving into one of these other splashes. I'm just not sure which is best.
Modern
RGTron
Legacy
UBRDelver
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The problem right now is that Splinter Twin is currently the #1 deck in the format. In every other Modern, the #1 deck has been either Pod or Jund. Having Twin as the deck to beat make this decks prospects much worse. Additionally, Pyroclasm is near-useless, making the red splash also awkward at best.
However, our tools to combat Twin are low, especially MD. Combust is a card that helps out post-board, but our pre-board options are limited to almost uniquely Spellskite; I agree with Seth that 4 MD Spellskite's are honestly the only real way to go in the near-future.
Also, as to splashing another color: Tron's power has almost always lied in its painless manabase. Giving that up makes many MUs worse, including ironically Twin due to their beat down strategy. GW allows us some flexibility with Razorverge, but neither GU or GB offer a painless multicolor land. Running painlands are the best of a bad bunch, but the tools offered by blue and black aren't too exciting; this isn't a deck that can take advantage of Thoughtseize or cheap counters. Running white for Path is likely the best we can do, but is this worth giving up on Taiga and SB Combust for? It's hard to say.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
Although this deck remains a very strong choice in the format, it doesn't quite have the prevalence or performance numbers to make it as Tier 1 anymore. With just 3.5% of the MTGO metagame, 4.5% of the paper metagame, a single T16 showing since 1/23, and only 2.25% of the GP/PT/SCG Open Day 2 metagame, RG Tron doesn't have the numbers it needs to stay Tier 1. With any luck it will be back on top, especially with some high profile finishes in the future.
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
GX Tron XG
UR Phoenix RU
GG Freyalise High Tide GG
UR Parun Counterspells RU
BB Yawgmoth Token Storm BB
WB Pestilence BW
The metagame can't stagnate like this. Baltimore may have been a small-ish tournament but there were a lot of great minds playing for cash. If don't see some writing on the wall with that many control-ish decks in the top 32, then jump off the train and go play something different.
The meta will slow down, things are wonky right now. Just keep playing and tuning.
Burn at least gets utterly destroyed by a single Wurmcoil Engine attack.
It's false that there's no combination of cards we can play that can beat a good draw from Burn. I'd like to see a Burn deck win if you have double Leyline of Sanctity at the start and Pyroclasm to kill off any creatures they do have. Obviously that's a very extreme example, but you stated "no combination of cards" can beat it.
More plausibly, though, we really do have a good amount of cards to handle Burn. I don't think I've ever seen a Burn deck recover from even a single successful Wurmcoil Engine swing. Not to mention how crazy Feed the Clan is if you have a Wurmcoil Engine out... at a recent tournament I heard a Burn player complaining about that card (admittedly, it was when Junk was playing it, but it's as good for us).
In fact, Burn has a lot of trouble beating a good draw from us. Turn 3 Wurmcoil Engine is absolutely backbreaking to a Burn deck, and even the few outs they do have (Deflecting Palm or Skullcrack in response to an attack) get thwarted by a Nature's Claim on the Wurmcoil Engine in response.
Fun thing to note, though: Splinter Twin, Burn, and Infect are all weak to Spellskite. The card really is crazy good in the current metagame.
Just hang on to it. The deck isn't getting any worse. It is well positioned against Junk/Abzan or whatever the flavour of the week the naming schemes are.
My Modern decks:
B/R/G Living End G/R/B
G/R Tron R/G
U/W/G/R Gargageddon R/G/W/U
R/W/G Naya Burn G/W/R
Current builds are on Molten Rain in the SB which is simply too much to handle. Feed the clan is not remotely as effective in our deck as it is in a deck that plays Goyf and Tas. FtC + Wurmcoil is obviously nuts, but this isn't something that you can count on happening. Claiming your Wurmcoil in response to their hate is not something you can count on happening. Not saying Burn is unbeatable but until you start dedicating slots narrow hate like FtC our win % is absolutely not above 40 and even with lifegain what do you get? An extra 10-15% at the cost of a weaker deck against the field?
There was an overreaction to my post on predictions for the future. Those were educated guesses based on observations from a good tournament. I'm not advocating removing Skite, Pyro, or Claim. I simply said that if this showing of slower decks becomes a trend, then modifying the MD to account for it would be the direction to take. I said I'm not modifying my list until I see a shift in the meta, so I'm still playing 3 Skite MD with one in the board. I never said "cut spellskite card is trash now". If there is anybody in this thread who knows the incredible value of Skite against a field of Twin, Burn, and Infect it is me.
All I'm saying is that if the format slows down and the fast decks drop in presence, you would be obstinate not to account for it in deckbuilding.
candidus inperti; si nil, his utere mecum.
~~~~~