Good point on Oboro vs Choke. That would make sense. There isn't much choke running around online though so I don't feel the need to add it...I've run into the card (and its cousin boil) 4 times or so in the last two times I've picked up the deck, meaning 200+ matches. Online, right now, it feels like it may give another land which tectonic edge could hit which is marginal, but potentially significant.
Oboro can dodge the Tec Edge so I would imagine that's why it is the more common legendary non-island to run for people.
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Good point on Oboro vs Choke. That would make sense. There isn't much choke running around online though so I don't feel the need to add it...I've run into the card (and its cousin boil) 4 times or so in the last two times I've picked up the deck, meaning 200+ matches. Online, right now, it feels like it may give another land which tectonic edge could hit which is marginal, but potentially significant.
Oboro can dodge the Tec Edge so I would imagine that's why it is the more common legendary non-island to run for people.
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Oboro can also help you in the rare situation when youre stuck on a mutavault and oboro; tap oboro for U, bounce it, put it into play and tap for U again. It's super situational but it has barely any downsides, so why not?
to get back on tec, it most definitely has a powerful effect on many decks; so many decks run a super fragile manabase, tec+seas can easily keep jund or uwr off a color entirely. It takes care of colonnade, makes cryptic worse, makes snapcaster+flashback worse, and makes Spell Pierce better. Twin is slowed down in casting Splinter Twin with counter backup, tron can't cast and activate oblivion stone if they're stuck on 3 lands (and seas can force them to play a fourth land). Scapeshift is slowed down which is basically all you need to do against them.
Okay, I guess you guys convinced me on Oboro. Blanked for a moment on it being protected from land destruction.
Perhaps in theory for edge...in practice, I found it to be unreliable, but that's my experience. I'll try to keep track of how often the ghost quarter in my deck would be better as an edge for the next week or two.
I went 4-0 at my local Modern night yesterday for the second consecutive time.
An observation before the tournament report: our deck has an extremely consistent core of merfolk, vials, spreading seas, and a few disruption spells. The things that get discussed on a daily basis on this forum (whether we should run 2 or 3 Master of Waves, Kira or Spellskite, etc), while important, are perhaps a bit distracting. People have done well in different events with very different merfolk decks - some run more counterspells, some run more bounce spells, etc, etc. But the cores are virtually identical. Much more important than these fine distinctions between decks are what I consider to be the two most important factors in successfully piloting the deck (or any deck, for that matter):
1. Know the deck. This can only come with playing as much as possible, for as long as possible, in a very thoughtful way. Understand what combinations of creatures will lead to a turn 4 win. Understand when to cast Spreading Seas versus when to cast Silvergill. Understand when to cast Reejerey versus when to cast Thassa. Understand how to avoid blowouts by not playing into board wipes and other dangers. Never, ever miss your Reejerey, Thassa, or Vial triggers. Perhaps most important, understand when to mulligan versus when to keep. Being on the play or draw should have a strong bearing on your mulligan decisions.
2. Know your opponent's deck. Should you Vapor Snag their Birds of Paradise on turn one, or should you play Cursecatcher? Should you tap your Island to play a creature now, or leave it up to Spell Pierce their threat next turn? There are not too many competitive decks in the Modern format, and it is very possible to have a strong knowledge of the general mechanics and specific cards of each and every competitive deck. It is also possible to know what they're likely to bring in from the sideboard, which should partially inform what YOU bring in from YOUR sideboard. Basically, you should know what the other 58 cards are in your opponent's deck after they play their first land and spell. (Obviously this is not always true, but you should work hard to make it so.)
I've made a couple of small adjustments to my deck since the last time I posted. While Mana Leak is a very powerful card, Phantasmal Image is more important for accomplishing our goals. Copy a Silvergill and draw a card, copy a Lord for more buffs, copy a Reej for more triggers, copy an opponent's creature for value. You all know the arguments for and against Image. I've played without him, then with him, then without him again, now with him again. My testing has shown him to be absolutely worth including two copies.
I've brought my second copy of Echoing Truth into the mainboard. The card virtually always has targets to hit, sometimes hits multiple permanents for crazy value, and, unlike Vapor Snag, gives us the ability to deal with troublesome noncreature permanents (Ensnaring Bridge, Ghostly Prison, and planeswalkers come to mind). At worst it's a more expensive Vapor Snag (which is still pretty good), at best it wins games.
I've gone up to three Chalice of the Void in the sideboard. This card is sort of like Spellskite: it does so much against so many decks that it is, in my view, a must-include in the deck. The thing with Chalice is that it is a double-edged sword - many decks can't play it because it would hose them as badly as it would hose their opponents. However, Merfolk is uniquely able to play Chalice with impunity; we run Cavern of Souls and Aether Vials, which allow us to play our creatures even with Chalice out. It is a card that greatly rewards knowledge of the meta. I created a thread on Reddit a few weeks ago listing all of the various uses for Chalice of the Void. Read it, memorize it, love it:
With that being said, here's the tournament report:
Round 1, Melira Pod.
Game 1 was very tight. He had a bird, wall of roots, finks, voice, and elemental token out. My board was slow, with a catcher, silvergill, spellskite. I made what I felt were very good play decisions, taking damage when I had to and chump blocking as little as possible. I played a spellskite to stonewall his finks rather than play out a reejerey, then spell pierced a huge chord of calling on his turn with the extra island. I won on the last possible turn, when I was at 3 life. A very satisfying win.
Game 2, on the draw, I greedily kept a hand with muta, vial, and a handful of lords and silvergills. I should have known he'd sideboard in removal for the vial - it got Abrupt Decayed on turn 2. I didn't draw land for a few turns and scooped.
Game 3, pod was nowhere in sight and he kept playing creatures. I did as well, with several lords. I eventually drew a spreading seas and attacked for over 30.
Round 2, Tarmo Twin.
Game 1 he got stuck on two lands and couldn't do anything.
Game 2 was a drawn-out affair. I didn't know what deck he was playing after the first game, because he had played so few cards. I had Thassa on the board and was getting in using her unblockable ability. He played shackles, which slowed me down. Eventually, he played an end of turn pestermite, followed by splinter twin. Surprise!
Game 3 he kept a hand with no red and I had a great hand. End of second turn he discarded ancient grudge, which would have gotten my vial. So I kept my blue up and spell pierced the flashback. Lords followed and it was a very quick game.
Round 3, Modern Event Deck (Hipsters of the Coast's "Modern Hero")
My opponent was playing the Modern event deck as an experiment, which he is documenting on the blog, "Hipsters of the Coast." Every week he has been adding a little bit to the deck (Thoughtseizes, better sideboard cards, better land/spell balance, etc). The deck is a bit more powerful than I expected!
I won game one, lost game two, won game three in a nail biter. In one game, I kept back two lords from attacking several turns when he only had out two honor of the pure on board, playing around raise the alarm, which would have blown out my lords. I found out after the game that he did have it, so I was happy with my play. I eventually drew a third lord and started getting in for lots of damage. Spellskite was an all-star in this match, getting vialed in on two separate occasions to save my lords from removal.
Round 4, Melira Pod.
Game one he mulled to 6 and couldn't do too much as I built up my board and swung for lots. Game two I vapor snagged his bird turn one, then tidebinded it second turn. Turn three reej. Turn four was lord untap island, lord untap island, cursecatcher untap island, vapor snag wall of roots, swing for 9 (with 21 coming the following turn). He scooped.
Conclusions:
We have a great game against Pod, especially post-board with Tidebinder, Hibernation, and Grafdigger's Cage. If you've got a strong hand, Vapor Snag their Birds or Hierarch on turn one (unless you have Vial, in which case play that). This will slow them down enough to let you get out your creatures and outpace them. If you have a slower hand, hold the Vapor Snag for later, and cast it to interrupt any of their combos. Always be careful not to unnecessarily cast spells on their turn when they have Voice of Resurgence out.
Splinter Twin is being played in several forms right now. Be on the lookout for Serum Visions, Bolts, Gitaxian Probe/Peek, and Flame Slash (they're playing it to get around Spellskite). The deck can look a lot like Delver or Storm t1 and t2, so just stay on your toes whenever you see UR or RUG lands and spells during those turns. Side in Spellskites and countermagic. Hold countermagic for their combo, and let them blast your creatures if necessary. If they have three mana open on your turn 3, be very careful! Hold up a Vapor Snag to bounce a Pestermite or Exarch, or leave up two Islands for Spell Pierce (since they're going to tap one of your Islands with Pestermite/Exarch) for Splinter Twin on their turn 4. Vialing in Spellskite can be an unexpected blowout.
Black/White Tokens is a strong deck. Echoing Truth is our best noncreature spell in the matchup. They can play a ton of removal in their colors, so make sure to bring in as many Kiras and/or Spellskites as you can.
Your reasoning for most of the post is sound to me...aside from my two particular dislikes in spellskite and chalice. Spellskite is only excellent against two decks, burn and auras (and even then, the auras deck doesn't show up often enough to be considered a priority anymore, at least online). It is good against uwr. It is a non-attacking creature everywhere else. I can certainly get behind playing it in a local metagame infested with such decks, but not against an open field.
My reasoning against chalice is a couple posts up from here. Basically, it doesn't do enough unless you have it in your opener, on the play, and you feel like you don't need to add pressure to the board. I feel like merfolk is a deck of cumulative pressure with a smattering of disruption, not a deck which wants a mediocre lock piece.
I'm also surprised you're running 2 oboros. 1 I can easily enough understand, but the chance to draw a 2nd should outweigh the small benefit of having one. Then again, I play a variant with 0 caverns as they, frankly, are not necessary and only hinder the casting of noncreature spells.
Oh, also, our matchup against pod isn't all that great. They have plenty of ways to out-value us and an engine which is operable even with spreading seas interactions. Yes, we have some good cards against them, but aside from hibernation (hibernation is pretty ridiculous and can turn the game on its head), our plan just doesn't stack up well against their's. We're trying to win with creatures. They're trying to win with creatures with value.
I've played the matchup plenty of times online before. Less so against the newer melira-less configurations, but I feel like we're still going to be the underdog as it's essentially the same deck.
I'm always happy to see pod. We can bounce their expensive "creatures with value" then attack with our bigger creatures. Also, they run a 3+ color mana base that's easily disrupted. They often telegraph the turn 2 pod (and are generally very greedy with their mana), so it's very easy to Spell Pierce. All our sideboard hate hits extremely hard against them (Grafdigger's, Hibernation, Tidebinder). I feel like I need to draw extremely poorly to lose to Pod; it happens rarely.
2 Oboros are fine. The odds of drawing both Oboros AND not having sufficient other lands are extremely low, and has never happened to me in the couple of months I've played the lands (whereas these lands HAVE helped me played around choke several times). It doesn't matter a great deal if I have a couple Islands and an Oboro out then draw into another Oboro, as our deck doesn't need that many blue sources on the board to play well. Also: no offense intended, but running Cavern of Souls in a deck that runs 20+ tribal creatures is common sense.
As for Chalice, please read my Reddit thread. You're using words like "mediocre" very losely; there are at least a dozen decks that are hit very hard by Chalice, and some of them are decks we'd otherwise have a very difficult time with (8-Rack, for example). You are greatly overstating the importance of drawing it in your opening hand. Versus Storm, for just one example, it would be fantastic to draw it on turn 4 and drop it for X=2 (please don't say we won't get to turn 4 against Storm; there are many ways to disrupt them, and there are many games where the deck doesn't run perfectly).
Spellskite wrecks Burn and Auras, as you mentioned, but Infect also auto-scoops to it. It is one of our best draws against Splinter Twin. It makes Scapeshift work much harder, and can be a blowout if vialed in unexpectedly in response to Scapeshift. It's fantastic against Affinity, as it can block Etched Champion and can steal Ravager activations. At the very least, it always protects one of our other creatures from removal. It is fantastic with Aether Vial. It can block very well. I don't feel like listing every single thing he can do, but he's one of the highest value-to-mana cost creatures in the format, and is extremely versatile.
Edit: I find it hard to disagree online without sounding disagreeable. This is all intended to be good-natured discussion. Apologies if I sound aggressive.
Thanks for your Chalice guide. I was wondering about chalice at 1 or 2 vs storm. I agree, many decks just fold to chalice and that alone should make it worth it.
I also board in Skite over Kira against any deck that runs 3-4x Abrupt Decay, since Kira can't protect against it and Spellskite can protect your vial.
As I said I'm not a fan of Chalice, but if you want to run it, run at least 3 since you want it in your opening hand, and run less 1-mana spells yourself; Dismember over Vapor Snag, Mana Leak over Spell Pierce
Awesome posts! I really like your deck and had a question about it (looks similar to mine lol). Why so many bounce spells such as Vapor Snag and Echoing Truth? Is it a local meta decision? Because, most of the mainstream meta is focused in combo where bounce is less important. Counters assist against combo and most aggro decks bank on a few key spells that counters can stop. So, why the high density of bounce spells?
Lastly, I'm hearing great things about Dakra. Have you had a chance to try her?
Belsambar, don't worry about the tone, it's hard to have a light touch when refuting someone's opinions on the internet.
My experience with pod is mainly in the online world and without hibernation. There is certainly a chance that card turns the matchup around quite a bit.
As far as their manabase is concerned, it's significantly less fragile than it's made out to be, to the point where some other people I respect (in this case, Jeff Hoogland) have advised against sideboarding even massive nonbasic hate such as blood moon against them (but of course, we still want seas). They have mana dorks + a colorless source of advantage so, yes, it's good, but it's certainly not as good as against, say, jund.
Reasonable on Oboro, I just feel like the upsides don't outweigh the downsides (minor on both parts).
Yes, running cavern may be common sense, but it's also not necessarily something I want/need. Online, it's not necessary. I only really would want it against uwr in a game going long or if spell snare is picking up in popularity (which it does seem to be from my last 3 days online so I may put in one copy and go back to 22 lands). It certainly does have a large upside in some metagames and a marginal downside, but I feel it is not 100% necessary. I just hope I don't see people running it as a 4-of (without reason of course).
I'm still not convinced on chalice. The decks which it is great against are either already good matchups for us or are marginal enough that I do not want to spend sideboard space on them. This is ignoring the opening hand + first 2 or so draws clause which is essentially tacked onto it.
Spellskite is a metagame call to me. The decks which it 100% wrecks are not common enough online (with the exception of burn) and against a number of reasonable twin players, it's a non-issue, especially with twisted image picking up a lot of popularity right now. It's certainly good, but not great.
I've talked with a few scapeshift players I respect and they like it when the opponent brings in spellskite a lot of the time. I'm skeptical of it just off of that.
Dakra mystic is basically just another 1-drop merfolk with utility. It's okay just for being a 1 mana creature to pump and the ability sometimes comes in handy...but it's about on the same level as cursecatcher and trickster.
-Do not underestimate the pod matchup, they're arguably the #1 deck right now for a reason. You can't always Godhand them and if you don't draw that spreading seas (or they destroy it) you can be in a world of trouble.
-While I run Caverns myself, it isn't that necessary; if you're building the deck it's probably the last card you want to pick up. It also gets worse for every non-merfolk creature you play, so watch out with Phantasmal, Thassa and especially Kira. Other than that it gives a nice upside to control decks without much downside, so why not run it one or two times. Also, some bad control players will tec Caverns before Mutavault, which is awesome for us
-I'd bring Skite in over Kira vs. Scapeshifts, since he eats bolts better and survives mass removal. But skite definitely isn't a "wow must have" against them
-Dakra is awful in a lot of matchups. You can not afford to use her ability against any deck with graveyard interaction; if you activate her and get a bad draw against their good draw, you're screwed and have to feed their Snapcaster/Goyf/Scooze while you get nothing. Then again, this goes for Cursecatcher as well, being a vanilla 1/1 in some matchups, but that goes against a lot fewer decks than Dakra is.
Ree, you mentioned that the cards that chalice is good against are already good matchups. But from what I have read earlier in this thread, affinity, 8-rack, bogles, infect, any aggro deck faster than us are among our bad matchups, and they would certainly go in versus them. Speaking of which, other than those decks, which decks in your opinion are considered to be a poor matchup for merfolk?
Edit: When I bring in chalice, I usually mull (some exceptions apply) until I get one in my opener, since chalice usually wrecks the decks that I do bring it in against. Going 1 or 2 card less is usually worth it if it literally blanks like 80% of their deck's spells to the point where their deck cannot function at all.
Aside from affinity, those decks are fringe contenders right now and not worth the sideboard slots. I'm also not sure that it's worth mulling to when it can't necessarily lock out a matchup 100% (unlike, say, rest in peace vs legacy manaless dredge).
In my experience, our bad matchups are affinity (dedicated sideboard hate worthy), and then unfavorable for melira pod, storm (dependant on the number of counters you run, when I last faces it I ran a total of 4), and then short of those, we're 50/50 or 60/40 against other decks. We're a fair deck doing fair things but in an efficient manner, meaning we won't crush many matchups.
On another note, I may be putting a vendillion clique back into the deck. I played with a pair in the deck pre-master of waves and they were excellent. They're good disruption vs combo and a reasonable clock on their own.
@ CantThinkOfAGoodName: I'm glad you enjoyed the Chalice thread. I look over it every now and then just to keep the matchups straight in my head.
@ spec.ops: I started off with the usual 4x Vapor Snag. Snag is an incredible card, and can sometimes win games by simply dealing the last 1 point of damage. If we can slow our opponents down by Snagging their creatures while also continuing to develop our board, we usually win. That is one of the basic definitions of how a "tempo" deck such as Merfolk operates: gain incremental advantages that ultimately get our opponent from 20 to 0 faster.
However, I can't stand scooping to simple cards like Ensnaring Bridge or Ghostly Prison. With so many different powerful decks in the format, Echoing Truth began to seem more and more like a necessary card for us, as a versatile answer to many threats. It can bounce anything besides lands, and can hit multiple permanents at once! Bounce a Birthing Pod, bounce a Kiki-Jiki, bounce a whole bunch of Spirit tokens, bounce a Karn, bounce those annoying Ensnaring Bridges and Ghostly Prisons and Stony Silences. It gives us game that Vapor Snag can't provide, for the low low cost of 1 additional colorless mana. For the time being, I feel safer playing two copies of Echoing Truth in the deck.
I have actually not tested Dakra; she just seems way too slow and expensive to me. In my view, we want our creatures to attack all the time. With Dakra, you are paying blue mana (which we need to cast our spells, like Snag and Pierce, and, well, other merfolks) AND tapping her to MAYBE draw a card, while also letting your opponent draw a card. Maybe there is some tricky Wizard deck that can make good use of her, but she seems really bad for Modern Merfolk.
I did test Triton Shorestalker for a few weeks, and found him to be pretty awesome. He always got damage in, even without Islandwalk online (which is actually pretty often). He single-handedly won me a few games. However, I found myself missing Cursecatcher. As you mentioned, there is a ton of combo in the meta, and a Cursecatcher or two on board can sometimes give us the extra turn we need to win the game. Cursecatcher also works very well with Spell Pierce, and can help us win counterspell wars. Most important, Cursecatcher's ability doesn't require you to tap him, so you can always attack with him. Many opponents tell me after matches, "If it weren't for that damned Cursecatcher!!..."
@ Bearscape: I'm not underestimating Pod. It is a strong deck. But there are many strong decks, and each one has good and bad matchups. I find our matchup against Pod to be very favorable, because our creatures are bigger, with better evasion, we play maindeck land disruption, and we can slow their plans down with Vapor Snag, Echoing Truth, and Spell Pierce. They run hardly any maindeck removal, so if we get our dudes out, we usually just win game one. And, as I've mentioned, we have some insane sideboard options against Pod, with Grafdigger's and Hibernation being utter blowouts, and Tidebinder being extremely solid. If you can hit a couple of their lands with Spreading Seas before dropping a Hibernation (which even hits Birthing Pod itself, by the way), they often can't even play out some of their creatures because they no longer have the colors.
So, yeah, Pod is a fantastic deck, and beats many decks pretty easily. But we have one of the stronger matchups against it, in my view.
@ Ree: Storm is another favorable matchup for us if you have good sideboard hate. Grafdiggers, Chalices, and a couple of extra counterspells are enough to shut them down consistently, I've found.
I'm not aware if there are restriction to adding links on the forums so I left it out and apologize.
On MTGO I seen a list by WoOtoO, placed 5-8th that played 35 creatures. Four of them here Spellstutter Sprite and I found that to be very, very, interesting. Does anyone think that is an overall better play then say... Spell Pierce? With Phantasmal Images and Mutavaults its not like there the only Faerie in the list. He also played Mothdust Changeling, and as to why I dont understand.
By the people talking about the pod matchup in this thread, it sounds like either I have a sub-optimal build for it or there are sample size issues on some end. I'm willing to believe that because I don't have card hibernation (grafdigger's isn't as much of a blowout as it seems, I play 2 because of storm), I'm losing more often than others are.
Kiki-pod has been easier from my perspective as their mana base is more fragile and or creature-based interaction is better against them. As in, fewer creatures with particularly detrimental etb abilities + it's easier to break up their combo chain. They also do more damage to themselves than melira does on average.
The thing about storm is that you do not want them to have an ascension 100% of the time. This is one of the places where md echoing truth would be very good and post-board, I'd rather hold up t1 swan song on the draw than play vial (the only other place I wouldn't play vial on the draw t1 is against affinity w/ steel sabotage in hand).
Scapeshift has been around 50/50 or so for me with the games all being very close. When they win, they're usually facing down lethal on the next turn and have perhaps stalled with a cryptic. I don't believe we have much to make the matchup significantly better but they can make out lives miserable if they so choose to (firespout, anger, etc).
Has anyone here ever tried Rapid Hybridization for a removal spell? I was practicing against my friend with his affinity deck and Dismember damage just really annoyed me. Considering our targets are basically only effect creatures like Pestermite, it might be worth a try
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Oboro can dodge the Tec Edge so I would imagine that's why it is the more common legendary non-island to run for people.
Modern Warp / UR Control / UR Storm / Naya Breachshift / ElectroBalance
Solidarity / Lands / Sneak and Show / Grixis Delver / Reanimator / Belcher / Storm / Dredge
Oboro can dodge the Tec Edge so I would imagine that's why it is the more common legendary non-island to run for people.
Modern Warp / UR Control / UR Storm / Naya Breachshift / ElectroBalance
Solidarity / Lands / Sneak and Show / Grixis Delver / Reanimator / Belcher / Storm / Dredge
to get back on tec, it most definitely has a powerful effect on many decks; so many decks run a super fragile manabase, tec+seas can easily keep jund or uwr off a color entirely. It takes care of colonnade, makes cryptic worse, makes snapcaster+flashback worse, and makes Spell Pierce better. Twin is slowed down in casting Splinter Twin with counter backup, tron can't cast and activate oblivion stone if they're stuck on 3 lands (and seas can force them to play a fourth land). Scapeshift is slowed down which is basically all you need to do against them.
Perhaps in theory for edge...in practice, I found it to be unreliable, but that's my experience. I'll try to keep track of how often the ghost quarter in my deck would be better as an edge for the next week or two.
10 Island
4 Mutavault
3 Cavern of Souls
2 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
Creatures
4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Merrow Reejerey
2 Phantasmal Image
2 Spellskite
1 Thassa, God of the Sea
4 Aether Vial
4 Spreading Seas
3 Vapor Snag
2 Echoing Truth
2 Spell Pierce
3 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Hibernation
2 Tidebinder Mage
2 Negate
2 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Spellskite
I went 4-0 at my local Modern night yesterday for the second consecutive time.
An observation before the tournament report: our deck has an extremely consistent core of merfolk, vials, spreading seas, and a few disruption spells. The things that get discussed on a daily basis on this forum (whether we should run 2 or 3 Master of Waves, Kira or Spellskite, etc), while important, are perhaps a bit distracting. People have done well in different events with very different merfolk decks - some run more counterspells, some run more bounce spells, etc, etc. But the cores are virtually identical. Much more important than these fine distinctions between decks are what I consider to be the two most important factors in successfully piloting the deck (or any deck, for that matter):
1. Know the deck. This can only come with playing as much as possible, for as long as possible, in a very thoughtful way. Understand what combinations of creatures will lead to a turn 4 win. Understand when to cast Spreading Seas versus when to cast Silvergill. Understand when to cast Reejerey versus when to cast Thassa. Understand how to avoid blowouts by not playing into board wipes and other dangers. Never, ever miss your Reejerey, Thassa, or Vial triggers. Perhaps most important, understand when to mulligan versus when to keep. Being on the play or draw should have a strong bearing on your mulligan decisions.
2. Know your opponent's deck. Should you Vapor Snag their Birds of Paradise on turn one, or should you play Cursecatcher? Should you tap your Island to play a creature now, or leave it up to Spell Pierce their threat next turn? There are not too many competitive decks in the Modern format, and it is very possible to have a strong knowledge of the general mechanics and specific cards of each and every competitive deck. It is also possible to know what they're likely to bring in from the sideboard, which should partially inform what YOU bring in from YOUR sideboard. Basically, you should know what the other 58 cards are in your opponent's deck after they play their first land and spell. (Obviously this is not always true, but you should work hard to make it so.)
I've made a couple of small adjustments to my deck since the last time I posted. While Mana Leak is a very powerful card, Phantasmal Image is more important for accomplishing our goals. Copy a Silvergill and draw a card, copy a Lord for more buffs, copy a Reej for more triggers, copy an opponent's creature for value. You all know the arguments for and against Image. I've played without him, then with him, then without him again, now with him again. My testing has shown him to be absolutely worth including two copies.
I've brought my second copy of Echoing Truth into the mainboard. The card virtually always has targets to hit, sometimes hits multiple permanents for crazy value, and, unlike Vapor Snag, gives us the ability to deal with troublesome noncreature permanents (Ensnaring Bridge, Ghostly Prison, and planeswalkers come to mind). At worst it's a more expensive Vapor Snag (which is still pretty good), at best it wins games.
I've gone up to three Chalice of the Void in the sideboard. This card is sort of like Spellskite: it does so much against so many decks that it is, in my view, a must-include in the deck. The thing with Chalice is that it is a double-edged sword - many decks can't play it because it would hose them as badly as it would hose their opponents. However, Merfolk is uniquely able to play Chalice with impunity; we run Cavern of Souls and Aether Vials, which allow us to play our creatures even with Chalice out. It is a card that greatly rewards knowledge of the meta. I created a thread on Reddit a few weeks ago listing all of the various uses for Chalice of the Void. Read it, memorize it, love it:
http://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/278717/best_uses_for_chalice_of_the_void_in_modern/
With that being said, here's the tournament report:
Round 1, Melira Pod.
Game 1 was very tight. He had a bird, wall of roots, finks, voice, and elemental token out. My board was slow, with a catcher, silvergill, spellskite. I made what I felt were very good play decisions, taking damage when I had to and chump blocking as little as possible. I played a spellskite to stonewall his finks rather than play out a reejerey, then spell pierced a huge chord of calling on his turn with the extra island. I won on the last possible turn, when I was at 3 life. A very satisfying win.
Game 2, on the draw, I greedily kept a hand with muta, vial, and a handful of lords and silvergills. I should have known he'd sideboard in removal for the vial - it got Abrupt Decayed on turn 2. I didn't draw land for a few turns and scooped.
Game 3, pod was nowhere in sight and he kept playing creatures. I did as well, with several lords. I eventually drew a spreading seas and attacked for over 30.
Round 2, Tarmo Twin.
Game 1 he got stuck on two lands and couldn't do anything.
Game 2 was a drawn-out affair. I didn't know what deck he was playing after the first game, because he had played so few cards. I had Thassa on the board and was getting in using her unblockable ability. He played shackles, which slowed me down. Eventually, he played an end of turn pestermite, followed by splinter twin. Surprise!
Game 3 he kept a hand with no red and I had a great hand. End of second turn he discarded ancient grudge, which would have gotten my vial. So I kept my blue up and spell pierced the flashback. Lords followed and it was a very quick game.
Round 3, Modern Event Deck (Hipsters of the Coast's "Modern Hero")
My opponent was playing the Modern event deck as an experiment, which he is documenting on the blog, "Hipsters of the Coast." Every week he has been adding a little bit to the deck (Thoughtseizes, better sideboard cards, better land/spell balance, etc). The deck is a bit more powerful than I expected!
I won game one, lost game two, won game three in a nail biter. In one game, I kept back two lords from attacking several turns when he only had out two honor of the pure on board, playing around raise the alarm, which would have blown out my lords. I found out after the game that he did have it, so I was happy with my play. I eventually drew a third lord and started getting in for lots of damage. Spellskite was an all-star in this match, getting vialed in on two separate occasions to save my lords from removal.
Round 4, Melira Pod.
Game one he mulled to 6 and couldn't do too much as I built up my board and swung for lots. Game two I vapor snagged his bird turn one, then tidebinded it second turn. Turn three reej. Turn four was lord untap island, lord untap island, cursecatcher untap island, vapor snag wall of roots, swing for 9 (with 21 coming the following turn). He scooped.
Conclusions:
We have a great game against Pod, especially post-board with Tidebinder, Hibernation, and Grafdigger's Cage. If you've got a strong hand, Vapor Snag their Birds or Hierarch on turn one (unless you have Vial, in which case play that). This will slow them down enough to let you get out your creatures and outpace them. If you have a slower hand, hold the Vapor Snag for later, and cast it to interrupt any of their combos. Always be careful not to unnecessarily cast spells on their turn when they have Voice of Resurgence out.
Splinter Twin is being played in several forms right now. Be on the lookout for Serum Visions, Bolts, Gitaxian Probe/Peek, and Flame Slash (they're playing it to get around Spellskite). The deck can look a lot like Delver or Storm t1 and t2, so just stay on your toes whenever you see UR or RUG lands and spells during those turns. Side in Spellskites and countermagic. Hold countermagic for their combo, and let them blast your creatures if necessary. If they have three mana open on your turn 3, be very careful! Hold up a Vapor Snag to bounce a Pestermite or Exarch, or leave up two Islands for Spell Pierce (since they're going to tap one of your Islands with Pestermite/Exarch) for Splinter Twin on their turn 4. Vialing in Spellskite can be an unexpected blowout.
Black/White Tokens is a strong deck. Echoing Truth is our best noncreature spell in the matchup. They can play a ton of removal in their colors, so make sure to bring in as many Kiras and/or Spellskites as you can.
My reasoning against chalice is a couple posts up from here. Basically, it doesn't do enough unless you have it in your opener, on the play, and you feel like you don't need to add pressure to the board. I feel like merfolk is a deck of cumulative pressure with a smattering of disruption, not a deck which wants a mediocre lock piece.
I'm also surprised you're running 2 oboros. 1 I can easily enough understand, but the chance to draw a 2nd should outweigh the small benefit of having one. Then again, I play a variant with 0 caverns as they, frankly, are not necessary and only hinder the casting of noncreature spells.
Oh, also, our matchup against pod isn't all that great. They have plenty of ways to out-value us and an engine which is operable even with spreading seas interactions. Yes, we have some good cards against them, but aside from hibernation (hibernation is pretty ridiculous and can turn the game on its head), our plan just doesn't stack up well against their's. We're trying to win with creatures. They're trying to win with creatures with value.
I've played the matchup plenty of times online before. Less so against the newer melira-less configurations, but I feel like we're still going to be the underdog as it's essentially the same deck.
2 Oboros are fine. The odds of drawing both Oboros AND not having sufficient other lands are extremely low, and has never happened to me in the couple of months I've played the lands (whereas these lands HAVE helped me played around choke several times). It doesn't matter a great deal if I have a couple Islands and an Oboro out then draw into another Oboro, as our deck doesn't need that many blue sources on the board to play well. Also: no offense intended, but running Cavern of Souls in a deck that runs 20+ tribal creatures is common sense.
As for Chalice, please read my Reddit thread. You're using words like "mediocre" very losely; there are at least a dozen decks that are hit very hard by Chalice, and some of them are decks we'd otherwise have a very difficult time with (8-Rack, for example). You are greatly overstating the importance of drawing it in your opening hand. Versus Storm, for just one example, it would be fantastic to draw it on turn 4 and drop it for X=2 (please don't say we won't get to turn 4 against Storm; there are many ways to disrupt them, and there are many games where the deck doesn't run perfectly).
Spellskite wrecks Burn and Auras, as you mentioned, but Infect also auto-scoops to it. It is one of our best draws against Splinter Twin. It makes Scapeshift work much harder, and can be a blowout if vialed in unexpectedly in response to Scapeshift. It's fantastic against Affinity, as it can block Etched Champion and can steal Ravager activations. At the very least, it always protects one of our other creatures from removal. It is fantastic with Aether Vial. It can block very well. I don't feel like listing every single thing he can do, but he's one of the highest value-to-mana cost creatures in the format, and is extremely versatile.
Edit: I find it hard to disagree online without sounding disagreeable. This is all intended to be good-natured discussion. Apologies if I sound aggressive.
Awesome posts! I really like your deck and had a question about it (looks similar to mine lol). Why so many bounce spells such as Vapor Snag and Echoing Truth? Is it a local meta decision? Because, most of the mainstream meta is focused in combo where bounce is less important. Counters assist against combo and most aggro decks bank on a few key spells that counters can stop. So, why the high density of bounce spells?
Lastly, I'm hearing great things about Dakra. Have you had a chance to try her?
YOUTUBE CHANNEL: GOBOTS
My experience with pod is mainly in the online world and without hibernation. There is certainly a chance that card turns the matchup around quite a bit.
As far as their manabase is concerned, it's significantly less fragile than it's made out to be, to the point where some other people I respect (in this case, Jeff Hoogland) have advised against sideboarding even massive nonbasic hate such as blood moon against them (but of course, we still want seas). They have mana dorks + a colorless source of advantage so, yes, it's good, but it's certainly not as good as against, say, jund.
Reasonable on Oboro, I just feel like the upsides don't outweigh the downsides (minor on both parts).
Yes, running cavern may be common sense, but it's also not necessarily something I want/need. Online, it's not necessary. I only really would want it against uwr in a game going long or if spell snare is picking up in popularity (which it does seem to be from my last 3 days online so I may put in one copy and go back to 22 lands). It certainly does have a large upside in some metagames and a marginal downside, but I feel it is not 100% necessary. I just hope I don't see people running it as a 4-of (without reason of course).
I'm still not convinced on chalice. The decks which it is great against are either already good matchups for us or are marginal enough that I do not want to spend sideboard space on them. This is ignoring the opening hand + first 2 or so draws clause which is essentially tacked onto it.
Spellskite is a metagame call to me. The decks which it 100% wrecks are not common enough online (with the exception of burn) and against a number of reasonable twin players, it's a non-issue, especially with twisted image picking up a lot of popularity right now. It's certainly good, but not great.
I've talked with a few scapeshift players I respect and they like it when the opponent brings in spellskite a lot of the time. I'm skeptical of it just off of that.
Dakra mystic is basically just another 1-drop merfolk with utility. It's okay just for being a 1 mana creature to pump and the ability sometimes comes in handy...but it's about on the same level as cursecatcher and trickster.
-Do not underestimate the pod matchup, they're arguably the #1 deck right now for a reason. You can't always Godhand them and if you don't draw that spreading seas (or they destroy it) you can be in a world of trouble.
-While I run Caverns myself, it isn't that necessary; if you're building the deck it's probably the last card you want to pick up. It also gets worse for every non-merfolk creature you play, so watch out with Phantasmal, Thassa and especially Kira. Other than that it gives a nice upside to control decks without much downside, so why not run it one or two times. Also, some bad control players will tec Caverns before Mutavault, which is awesome for us
-I'd bring Skite in over Kira vs. Scapeshifts, since he eats bolts better and survives mass removal. But skite definitely isn't a "wow must have" against them
-Dakra is awful in a lot of matchups. You can not afford to use her ability against any deck with graveyard interaction; if you activate her and get a bad draw against their good draw, you're screwed and have to feed their Snapcaster/Goyf/Scooze while you get nothing. Then again, this goes for Cursecatcher as well, being a vanilla 1/1 in some matchups, but that goes against a lot fewer decks than Dakra is.
Edit: When I bring in chalice, I usually mull (some exceptions apply) until I get one in my opener, since chalice usually wrecks the decks that I do bring it in against. Going 1 or 2 card less is usually worth it if it literally blanks like 80% of their deck's spells to the point where their deck cannot function at all.
In my experience, our bad matchups are affinity (dedicated sideboard hate worthy), and then unfavorable for melira pod, storm (dependant on the number of counters you run, when I last faces it I ran a total of 4), and then short of those, we're 50/50 or 60/40 against other decks. We're a fair deck doing fair things but in an efficient manner, meaning we won't crush many matchups.
On another note, I may be putting a vendillion clique back into the deck. I played with a pair in the deck pre-master of waves and they were excellent. They're good disruption vs combo and a reasonable clock on their own.
@ spec.ops: I started off with the usual 4x Vapor Snag. Snag is an incredible card, and can sometimes win games by simply dealing the last 1 point of damage. If we can slow our opponents down by Snagging their creatures while also continuing to develop our board, we usually win. That is one of the basic definitions of how a "tempo" deck such as Merfolk operates: gain incremental advantages that ultimately get our opponent from 20 to 0 faster.
However, I can't stand scooping to simple cards like Ensnaring Bridge or Ghostly Prison. With so many different powerful decks in the format, Echoing Truth began to seem more and more like a necessary card for us, as a versatile answer to many threats. It can bounce anything besides lands, and can hit multiple permanents at once! Bounce a Birthing Pod, bounce a Kiki-Jiki, bounce a whole bunch of Spirit tokens, bounce a Karn, bounce those annoying Ensnaring Bridges and Ghostly Prisons and Stony Silences. It gives us game that Vapor Snag can't provide, for the low low cost of 1 additional colorless mana. For the time being, I feel safer playing two copies of Echoing Truth in the deck.
I have actually not tested Dakra; she just seems way too slow and expensive to me. In my view, we want our creatures to attack all the time. With Dakra, you are paying blue mana (which we need to cast our spells, like Snag and Pierce, and, well, other merfolks) AND tapping her to MAYBE draw a card, while also letting your opponent draw a card. Maybe there is some tricky Wizard deck that can make good use of her, but she seems really bad for Modern Merfolk.
I did test Triton Shorestalker for a few weeks, and found him to be pretty awesome. He always got damage in, even without Islandwalk online (which is actually pretty often). He single-handedly won me a few games. However, I found myself missing Cursecatcher. As you mentioned, there is a ton of combo in the meta, and a Cursecatcher or two on board can sometimes give us the extra turn we need to win the game. Cursecatcher also works very well with Spell Pierce, and can help us win counterspell wars. Most important, Cursecatcher's ability doesn't require you to tap him, so you can always attack with him. Many opponents tell me after matches, "If it weren't for that damned Cursecatcher!!..."
@ Bearscape: I'm not underestimating Pod. It is a strong deck. But there are many strong decks, and each one has good and bad matchups. I find our matchup against Pod to be very favorable, because our creatures are bigger, with better evasion, we play maindeck land disruption, and we can slow their plans down with Vapor Snag, Echoing Truth, and Spell Pierce. They run hardly any maindeck removal, so if we get our dudes out, we usually just win game one. And, as I've mentioned, we have some insane sideboard options against Pod, with Grafdigger's and Hibernation being utter blowouts, and Tidebinder being extremely solid. If you can hit a couple of their lands with Spreading Seas before dropping a Hibernation (which even hits Birthing Pod itself, by the way), they often can't even play out some of their creatures because they no longer have the colors.
So, yeah, Pod is a fantastic deck, and beats many decks pretty easily. But we have one of the stronger matchups against it, in my view.
@ Ree: Storm is another favorable matchup for us if you have good sideboard hate. Grafdiggers, Chalices, and a couple of extra counterspells are enough to shut them down consistently, I've found.
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2014/06/modern-hero-week-five/
On MTGO I seen a list by WoOtoO, placed 5-8th that played 35 creatures. Four of them here Spellstutter Sprite and I found that to be very, very, interesting. Does anyone think that is an overall better play then say... Spell Pierce? With Phantasmal Images and Mutavaults its not like there the only Faerie in the list. He also played Mothdust Changeling, and as to why I dont understand.
Just thought it was an interesting list and idea.
Kiki-pod has been easier from my perspective as their mana base is more fragile and or creature-based interaction is better against them. As in, fewer creatures with particularly detrimental etb abilities + it's easier to break up their combo chain. They also do more damage to themselves than melira does on average.
The thing about storm is that you do not want them to have an ascension 100% of the time. This is one of the places where md echoing truth would be very good and post-board, I'd rather hold up t1 swan song on the draw than play vial (the only other place I wouldn't play vial on the draw t1 is against affinity w/ steel sabotage in hand).
Scapeshift has been around 50/50 or so for me with the games all being very close. When they win, they're usually facing down lethal on the next turn and have perhaps stalled with a cryptic. I don't believe we have much to make the matchup significantly better but they can make out lives miserable if they so choose to (firespout, anger, etc).