I am not sure yet if having 3 Blooming Marsh and 1 Concelaed Courtyard would be better, but by doing so I'd have to change around some more lands, since with this posted manabase, you'd have a nice balance between colours you need vs. colours you get, in general. Of course this decks wants green on turn 2 much more rather than white on turn 1, thus blooming marsh beeing more important I think. So I'll see on this one.
I think Grim Flayer is an auto 4 of. For me its been amazing, and I wouldn't cut on copy for now. I actually like the Mishra's Bauble approach which happended at worlds, thus I want to play 2 copies of each, for enabling Grim Flayer more often.
I think Noble Hierach is not the best approach though, as it showed up more frequently in tha latest lists. For me something like I posted is the way to go, eventually changing around on the fastlands and/or 4 drops to adjust to certain metas. I also think that Shambling Vent is just better than Stirring Wildwood nowadays, since lifegain is very important and bolt being not that present makes it push the top than Stirring Wildwood, at least for me. Also concerning this, I would never go up to 4 Manlands again, its done so much harm to me in the past, and since the meta is so fast, 3 is the absolute maximum for me. I want to see one Manland on average every game, drawing two in a row could often mean GG, I experienced this issue a lot in the past.
P.S. I also realized you could kill any merfolk/Mutavault creatures no matter how much lords they have with Inversion, since they lose creature types! This might help the matchup some more.
One of my pet fantasies is to get the Haakon, Stromgald Scourge and Nameless Inversion loop going against Merfolk. GBx is probably not the place, but I might give it a try in the future. It works against any tribe, so Elves, Goblins - even Knights! It seems like it would be more fun than Glissa, the Traitor and Executioner's Capsule.
This thread is full of idiots... Lightning Bolt is NOT being reprinted.
Many times has a writer in Wizards said so, because of the plain and simple fact that it's too powerful for what it costs. x/3 creatures shouldn't be able to die at instant speed for one mana without a signifigant drawback. (like PTE giving you a land)
I absolutely guarantee that LB will not be printed in M10, and you can quote me on that.
With Bant Eldrazi on the rise, I think we need to dedicate more sideboard slots to that matchup. I am probably going to run Shriekmaw over Disfigure and heres my thoughts.
A) 2 mana removal spell is efficient enough
B) Gets around Reality Smashers discard clause
C) late game provides a 3/2 unblockable body
It isnt as good as Disfigure against Infect and affinity, but I feel like its worth it the way the meta is shaping up. Thoughts?
Mhjames: mtgsalvation: I DON'T SEE HOW THIS CARD IS GOOD. I KNOW PATRICK CHAPIN USED IT AND WENT 8-0, BUT THAT WAS A SMALL TOURNAMENT. THE CARD IS TOO SLOW. YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE THE OPPONENT HAS A SPELL IN THE GRAVEYARD
I'm not sure what I'm doing wrong but I'm getting absolutely destroyed using this archetype in testing x_x. It seems like every other deck is either more resilient or faster. That could just be modern though.
Also in my testing Flayer has not been that good at all. An above average two drop but I feel like if the meta was a tad slower I'd still rather have Bob. I just returned from a very long break so maybe I'm still rusty but I have hardly liked Grim Flayer whenver I have it and wonder why we aren't running a much more aggressive list
Mhjames: mtgsalvation: I DON'T SEE HOW THIS CARD IS GOOD. I KNOW PATRICK CHAPIN USED IT AND WENT 8-0, BUT THAT WAS A SMALL TOURNAMENT. THE CARD IS TOO SLOW. YOU NEED TO MAKE SURE THE OPPONENT HAS A SPELL IN THE GRAVEYARD
With Bant Eldrazi on the rise, I think we need to dedicate more sideboard slots to that matchup. I am probably going to run Shriekmaw over Disfigure and heres my thoughts.
A) 2 mana removal spell is efficient enough
B) Gets around Reality Smashers discard clause
C) late game provides a 3/2 unblockable body
It isnt as good as Disfigure against Infect and affinity, but I feel like its worth it the way the meta is shaping up. Thoughts?
I'dd rather play Obstinate Baloth instead to counter smasher. It gains you one more hit from smasher and at least it can block and kill half the creatures of that deck. Imagine: He attacks with some creatures including Smasher and thought-knot; path smasher, discard/play baloth, gain 4, block thought-knot, draw.
That is a pretty good scenario, but it requires you to have exactly a Path to have Baloth work out. Meanwhile, you can reap the benefits from shriekmaw no matter what other cards you have. Ill do some testing and see if when I draw that card, which card I would prefer?
Finally, i don't get the murmuring bosk. Since you don't have any Treefolk, wouldn't Sandsteppe Citadel be better? Even then, that land is not great. I'dd suggest to get a Twilight Mire instead.
Murmuring Bosk is fetchable. I love it in Junk, always have. That does not appear to be a view shared by many but I'm okay with that.
Finally, i don't get the murmuring bosk. Since you don't have any Treefolk, wouldn't Sandsteppe Citadel be better? Even then, that land is not great. I'dd suggest to get a Twilight Mire instead.
Murmuring Bosk is fetchable. I love it in Junk, always have. That does not appear to be a view shared by many but I'm okay with that.
If you're willing to admit to us that your love is irrational, we could accept that
Murmuring Bosk is a fetchable, painless G source that doesn't detract from one's abilty to make B when needed and also makes W in a pinch. The EtB tapped clause can be a bummer if one draws Bosk but I found I nearly always went for the Bosk end-of-turn when I wanted a G source. I doubt I would play Junk without a copy of Bosk, it's just too smooth. I'm currently on Obliterock but if I decide to splash W, Bosk is back.
With the new fastlands becoming available is Bob a more realistic avenue of play for us? I remember some people saying they were testing low to the ground lists w/ Bob, Flayer, goyf, and scooze, were these successful?
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
My Decks:
UG Merfolk RG 8-Whack BWG Abzan midrange GRB Living End UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin" RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!" BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
ok...so i guess Nobles are needed in the current Meta or something..
Junk top8 alot in many WMCQ's. It's even the deck that became first the most!
Yet all of them play nobles, which i just don't get... I'll remain stubborn and play Rhino instead
A one mana accelerant is great. It forces ananswer or you get to move your actions up by one turn each. A turn 2 lili is awesome. Im trying this version with 4 hierarchs, 4 lilis and 4 siege rhinos tonight. I was trying 4 bobs and 4 flayers but tonight im just going for the the old 4 flayers. I meant to post that boblist but it didnt have many payoff cards and even tho the filtering and draw felt great, the end result was still a little underwhelming. This deck will be greatly improved by a set of blooming marshes. I will try and post a list from tonight, but only if it does ok.
ok...so i guess Nobles are needed in the current Meta or something..
Junk top8 alot in many WMCQ's. It's even the deck that became first the most!
Yet all of them play nobles, which i just don't get... I'll remain stubborn and play Rhino instead
A one mana accelerant is great. It forces ananswer or you get to move your actions up by one turn each. A turn 2 lili is awesome. Im trying this version with 4 hierarchs, 4 lilis and 4 siege rhinos tonight. I was trying 4 bobs and 4 flayers but tonight im just going for the the old 4 flayers. I meant to post that boblist but it didnt have many payoff cards and even tho the filtering and draw felt great, the end result was still a little underwhelming. This deck will be greatly improved by a set of blooming marshes. I will try and post a list from tonight, but only if it does ok.
if your going the accel route wouldnt birds be better since it can produce black also? Or is the +1/+1 of noble to good to pass up, how I wish Deathrite shaman wasn't banned.
This thread is full of idiots... Lightning Bolt is NOT being reprinted.
Many times has a writer in Wizards said so, because of the plain and simple fact that it's too powerful for what it costs. x/3 creatures shouldn't be able to die at instant speed for one mana without a signifigant drawback. (like PTE giving you a land)
I absolutely guarantee that LB will not be printed in M10, and you can quote me on that.
I don't think Noble Hierarch is good in Junk because you can come to awkward situations when you have both discard and Noble Hierach in the opening hand but can't play both f them on turn 1. The problem here is that both of these cards becomes significantly worse pass turn 1, not just because of their effect but it also ruins your curve of playing 1 cmc card on turn 1, 2 cmc card on turn 2 and so on.
Discard and Noble isnt awkward. You always discard. The only other situation I would think you would play Hierarch first is if youre against a blue based deck and on the play, you want to T2 lilly to get around counter magic. Otherwise, casting hierarch on turn 2 isnt bad. It still enables turn 3 rhino, or Souls + path or goyf + decay. Jund is known to have the advantage of being able to play multiple spells a turn and Abzan has access to that with Hierarch.
And I would agree that Hierarch is a bad late game top deck but things have changed. First off, youre cutting lands for her, so a land off the top isnt any better. Next, we have Grim Flayer, so swinging in with an extra point of damage can make or break getting a trigger off Grim. Not to mention goyf being able to break the mirror vs. Jund. She is lackluster before the printing of Flayer. But now, Grim adds an aggressive element to our deck and Hierarch just capitalizes on it.
Hierarch also makes it easier to have that critical 4th card type in the yard. Instant, land, and sorcery are the easy 3. Hierarch can chump (or eat a bolt, which is good for us) and have Grim hit delirium.
If my jund opponent bolts my Hierarch, thats one less removal spell for my Grims. And since we are swapping a land for a Hierarch, youre essentially trading your land for a bolt.
Quote from Ayiluss »
I don't think Noble Hierarch is good in Junk because you can come to awkward situations when you have both discard and Noble Hierach in the opening hand but can't play both f them on turn 1. The problem here is that both of these cards becomes significantly worse pass turn 1, not just because of their effect but it also ruins your curve of playing 1 cmc card on turn 1, 2 cmc card on turn 2 and so on.
Excactly this. Noble might be great the first couple of turns, but after that it's worth nothing. It is boltable which is what i try to avoid aswell, since all other threats aren't.
With every card in the deck being great from turn 1 to turn 100 (except maybe discard), i would make my deck worse with noble. Siege Rhino is not castable at turn 1 ofcourse, but from 4 to the end it is great. I'dd rather have everything from turn 3 till the end be relevant than have a small chance for a fast start and a greater chance for a bad topdeck.
A bolt to a Hierarch isn't a bolt to the face, so you save yourself 3 lifes. Also exalted makes goyf, rhino or flayer bigger, which can help in a stalemate. So I don't think it is a very bad top deck.
Well, it's definitely not a good one. I'd much rather top deck a threat or removal for my opponent's threat. Most of the time is like top decking a land when you need a threat or an answer to opponent's threat.
I think thats the reason for three hierarchs in all the decks that won world cup qualifiers with abzan. You really want it opening hand or turn 2 at the latest. I tested four last night. It felt ok but i only put up middling results. I think the siege rhinos are coming out (ended up running 3) in favor of scoozes. Im also dropping the nihil spellbombs main and trying the baubles out. Remember too, exalted for one can equate a free pump every turn after the first so hierach is never truly a dead draw
I agree that you should always go with discard first but exactly this is what makes it awkward. Noble Hierarch is worse past turn 1 and unless I don't have anything else to play on the following turns I won't play it. The problems occurs when you have discard, Goyf and Liliana in the hand along with Hierach. You don't want to play Hierach on turn 1 because this is when you want to play discard but later also not since it would ruin your otherwise perfect curve of turn 1 discard, turn 2 Goyf and turn 3 Liliana. Playing him on turn 4 really isn't appealing at all.
Even playing her on turn 4 isnt bad. For example against a BG/X opponent, you can go Hierarch, swing with goyf through an opposing goyf meanwhile still having a blocker to protect lilly. And still keep in mind that the hierarch would otherwise have been a land. So in that scenario, you gain all the value from having a hierarch in your deck, then that extra Godless Shrine.
Also keep in mind that Hierarch protects you from Liliana. On the draw against jund, it feels super bad to lillyd turn 3 and difficult to catchup from. So often, you sandbag your goyf until you cast a Lingering Souls or Kitchen Finks. Hierarch takes all that away by nullifying your opposing lillys
I agree that you should always go with discard first but exactly this is what makes it awkward. Noble Hierarch is worse past turn 1 and unless I don't have anything else to play on the following turns I won't play it. The problems occurs when you have discard, Goyf and Liliana in the hand along with Hierach. You don't want to play Hierach on turn 1 because this is when you want to play discard but later also not since it would ruin your otherwise perfect curve of turn 1 discard, turn 2 Goyf and turn 3 Liliana. Playing him on turn 4 really isn't appealing at all.
Even playing her on turn 4 isnt bad. For example against a BG/X opponent, you can go Hierarch, swing with goyf through an opposing goyf meanwhile still having a blocker to protect lilly. And still keep in mind that the hierarch would otherwise have been a land. So in that scenario, you gain all the value from having a hierarch in your deck, then that extra Godless Shrine.
Also keep in mind that Hierarch protects you from Liliana. On the draw against jund, it feels super bad to lillyd turn 3 and difficult to catchup from. So often, you sandbag your goyf until you cast a Lingering Souls or Kitchen Finks. Hierarch takes all that away by nullifying your opposing lillys
I don't think Noble Hierarch is good in Junk because you can come to awkward situations when you have both discard and Noble Hierach in the opening hand but can't play both f them on turn 1. The problem here is that both of these cards becomes significantly worse pass turn 1, not just because of their effect but it also ruins your curve of playing 1 cmc card on turn 1, 2 cmc card on turn 2 and so on.
Discard and Noble isnt awkward. You always discard. The only other situation I would think you would play Hierarch first is if youre against a blue based deck and on the play, you want to T2 lilly to get around counter magic. Otherwise, casting hierarch on turn 2 isnt bad. It still enables turn 3 rhino, or Souls + path or goyf + decay. Jund is known to have the advantage of being able to play multiple spells a turn and Abzan has access to that with Hierarch.
And I would agree that Hierarch is a bad late game top deck but things have changed. First off, youre cutting lands for her, so a land off the top isnt any better. Next, we have Grim Flayer, so swinging in with an extra point of damage can make or break getting a trigger off Grim. Not to mention goyf being able to break the mirror vs. Jund. She is lackluster before the printing of Flayer. But now, Grim adds an aggressive element to our deck and Hierarch just capitalizes on it.
Hierarch also makes it easier to have that critical 4th card type in the yard. Instant, land, and sorcery are the easy 3. Hierarch can chump (or eat a bolt, which is good for us) and have Grim hit delirium.
If my jund opponent bolts my Hierarch, thats one less removal spell for my Grims. And since we are swapping a land for a Hierarch, youre essentially trading your land for a bolt.
Almost fully agree, the new Abzan builds are not liked the old ones. The old ones were pretty good vs bolt deccks, but bolt decks are not doing great atm. The new abzan builds have a different philosophy, they play to the board quickly and put on pressure quickly. They're also a lot better vs aggro decks then the old ones (how many times have you looked at a hand with no action before turn 3? It's just too slow atm.)
I also don't agree with always playing t1 discard over hierarch. If you're on the draw you can often see what they are playing and decide then. Going T1 hierarch, T2 discard + goyf/flayer is often the better play. If you're on the play and can slam a T2 liliana i'd take it in the dark as well, this play smashes a ton of decks.
Bad top decks and being bolt proof are meta calls which you shouldn't make atm IMO unless your meta is infested with Jund and Jeskai.
My testing also shows the new deck loves blooming marsh.
The biggest weakness of the new type of Abzan is its crap matchup to Bant Eldrazi IMO.
4x Verdant Catacombs
3x Marsh Flats
2x Windswept Heath
2x Blooming Marsh
2x Concealed Courtyard
2x Overgrown Tomb
1x Godless Shrine
1x Temple Garden
3x Shambling Vent
1x Twilight Mire
2x Swamp
1x Forest
4x Tarmogoyf
4x Grim Flayer
2x Scavenging Ooze
2x Siege Rhino
Non-Creature Spells
4x Path to Exile
3x Inquisition of Kozilek
3x Thoughtseize
2x Abrupt Decay
1x Murderous Cut
1x Collective Brutality
2x Mishra's Bauble
4x Lingering Souls
4x Liliana of the Veil
I am not sure yet if having 3 Blooming Marsh and 1 Concelaed Courtyard would be better, but by doing so I'd have to change around some more lands, since with this posted manabase, you'd have a nice balance between colours you need vs. colours you get, in general. Of course this decks wants green on turn 2 much more rather than white on turn 1, thus blooming marsh beeing more important I think. So I'll see on this one.
I think Grim Flayer is an auto 4 of. For me its been amazing, and I wouldn't cut on copy for now. I actually like the Mishra's Bauble approach which happended at worlds, thus I want to play 2 copies of each, for enabling Grim Flayer more often.
I think Noble Hierach is not the best approach though, as it showed up more frequently in tha latest lists. For me something like I posted is the way to go, eventually changing around on the fastlands and/or 4 drops to adjust to certain metas. I also think that Shambling Vent is just better than Stirring Wildwood nowadays, since lifegain is very important and bolt being not that present makes it push the top than Stirring Wildwood, at least for me. Also concerning this, I would never go up to 4 Manlands again, its done so much harm to me in the past, and since the meta is so fast, 3 is the absolute maximum for me. I want to see one Manland on average every game, drawing two in a row could often mean GG, I experienced this issue a lot in the past.
4 inquisition of kozilek
2 thoughtseize
1 darkblast
4 abrupt decay
2 dromoka's command
4 liliana of the veil
4 lingering souls
Creatures 15
4 dark confidant
4 tarmogoyf
2 scavenging ooze
2 grim flayer
3 phyrexian obliterator
4 blooming marsh
4 verdant catacombs
4 marsh flats
1 overgrown tomb
1 godless shrine
1 temple garden
2 swamp
1 forest
1 plains
1 urborg, tomb of yawgmoth
1 twilight mire
3 shambling vent
3 stony silence
2 Anafenza, the foremost
2 Kalitas, traitor of ghet
2 kitchen finks
2 duress
2 Thrun, the last troll
2 fulminator mage
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
One of my pet fantasies is to get the Haakon, Stromgald Scourge and Nameless Inversion loop going against Merfolk. GBx is probably not the place, but I might give it a try in the future. It works against any tribe, so Elves, Goblins - even Knights! It seems like it would be more fun than Glissa, the Traitor and Executioner's Capsule.
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
how come you didnt miss finks? does your meta not have fast aggro or burn?
“Homo homini lupus est.”
A) 2 mana removal spell is efficient enough
B) Gets around Reality Smashers discard clause
C) late game provides a 3/2 unblockable body
It isnt as good as Disfigure against Infect and affinity, but I feel like its worth it the way the meta is shaping up. Thoughts?
Am I missing something? Why
By: ol MISAKA lo
Cockatrice: Infallible
Also in my testing Flayer has not been that good at all. An above average two drop but I feel like if the meta was a tad slower I'd still rather have Bob. I just returned from a very long break so maybe I'm still rusty but I have hardly liked Grim Flayer whenver I have it and wonder why we aren't running a much more aggressive list
4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Grim Flayer
3 Siege Rhino
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Spells: 21
4 Path to Exile
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Abrupt Decay
1 Anguished Unmaking
3 Lingering Souls
3 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Marsh Flats
2 Temple Garden
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Godless Shrine
2 Forest
2 Swamp
1 Plains
2 Shambling Vent
1 Treetop Village
1 Murmuring Bosk
Testing this soon. Two flex spots. I was thinking of more creatures or more card advantage
By: ol MISAKA lo
Cockatrice: Infallible
That is a pretty good scenario, but it requires you to have exactly a Path to have Baloth work out. Meanwhile, you can reap the benefits from shriekmaw no matter what other cards you have. Ill do some testing and see if when I draw that card, which card I would prefer?
Murmuring Bosk is fetchable. I love it in Junk, always have. That does not appear to be a view shared by many but I'm okay with that.
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
If you're willing to admit to us that your love is irrational, we could accept that
Frenzy-Affinity-Ghost Quarter-Rock-Tokens- RGWPhyrexian Zoo- WVial KnightsStandard:
BW Knights(Rotated)Pioneer: RW Knights - BW Rally Zombies - UW Heroes
Commander:WUG
Jenara, Asura of War- WGSigarda, Host of HeronsCasualties of economicsLegacy: Good-night, sweet prince. Mono-R Burn
RG 8-Whack
BWG Abzan midrange
GRB Living End
UWB Spirit Control
GU Kruphix's "Hug Assassin"
RW Kalemne's "Play Fatties and Hope for the Best!"
BUGW Atraxa's "All counters, all the time"
A one mana accelerant is great. It forces ananswer or you get to move your actions up by one turn each. A turn 2 lili is awesome. Im trying this version with 4 hierarchs, 4 lilis and 4 siege rhinos tonight. I was trying 4 bobs and 4 flayers but tonight im just going for the the old 4 flayers. I meant to post that boblist but it didnt have many payoff cards and even tho the filtering and draw felt great, the end result was still a little underwhelming. This deck will be greatly improved by a set of blooming marshes. I will try and post a list from tonight, but only if it does ok.
“Homo homini lupus est.”
Discard and Noble isnt awkward. You always discard. The only other situation I would think you would play Hierarch first is if youre against a blue based deck and on the play, you want to T2 lilly to get around counter magic. Otherwise, casting hierarch on turn 2 isnt bad. It still enables turn 3 rhino, or Souls + path or goyf + decay. Jund is known to have the advantage of being able to play multiple spells a turn and Abzan has access to that with Hierarch.
And I would agree that Hierarch is a bad late game top deck but things have changed. First off, youre cutting lands for her, so a land off the top isnt any better. Next, we have Grim Flayer, so swinging in with an extra point of damage can make or break getting a trigger off Grim. Not to mention goyf being able to break the mirror vs. Jund. She is lackluster before the printing of Flayer. But now, Grim adds an aggressive element to our deck and Hierarch just capitalizes on it.
Hierarch also makes it easier to have that critical 4th card type in the yard. Instant, land, and sorcery are the easy 3. Hierarch can chump (or eat a bolt, which is good for us) and have Grim hit delirium.
If my jund opponent bolts my Hierarch, thats one less removal spell for my Grims. And since we are swapping a land for a Hierarch, youre essentially trading your land for a bolt.
I think thats the reason for three hierarchs in all the decks that won world cup qualifiers with abzan. You really want it opening hand or turn 2 at the latest. I tested four last night. It felt ok but i only put up middling results. I think the siege rhinos are coming out (ended up running 3) in favor of scoozes. Im also dropping the nihil spellbombs main and trying the baubles out. Remember too, exalted for one can equate a free pump every turn after the first so hierach is never truly a dead draw
Even playing her on turn 4 isnt bad. For example against a BG/X opponent, you can go Hierarch, swing with goyf through an opposing goyf meanwhile still having a blocker to protect lilly. And still keep in mind that the hierarch would otherwise have been a land. So in that scenario, you gain all the value from having a hierarch in your deck, then that extra Godless Shrine.
Also keep in mind that Hierarch protects you from Liliana. On the draw against jund, it feels super bad to lillyd turn 3 and difficult to catchup from. So often, you sandbag your goyf until you cast a Lingering Souls or Kitchen Finks. Hierarch takes all that away by nullifying your opposing lillys
Well said
Almost fully agree, the new Abzan builds are not liked the old ones. The old ones were pretty good vs bolt deccks, but bolt decks are not doing great atm. The new abzan builds have a different philosophy, they play to the board quickly and put on pressure quickly. They're also a lot better vs aggro decks then the old ones (how many times have you looked at a hand with no action before turn 3? It's just too slow atm.)
I also don't agree with always playing t1 discard over hierarch. If you're on the draw you can often see what they are playing and decide then. Going T1 hierarch, T2 discard + goyf/flayer is often the better play. If you're on the play and can slam a T2 liliana i'd take it in the dark as well, this play smashes a ton of decks.
Bad top decks and being bolt proof are meta calls which you shouldn't make atm IMO unless your meta is infested with Jund and Jeskai.
My testing also shows the new deck loves blooming marsh.
The biggest weakness of the new type of Abzan is its crap matchup to Bant Eldrazi IMO.