Realize: The one problem with that argument is that the Ub version already takes damage from thoughtseize + lands, so the ability to pay the black in the spell is more damage control vs really helping keep your life total higher. Still good enough to warrant playing copies though.
Edit: posts popped up since I last refreshed.
Darkshar: If I take out Thassa or a Kira, reejery comes in. It also will come in if you have an extra slot but that's kind of rare.
Jb: No fetches? If you're going to run white, I'd suggest them and/or some seachrome coasts.
Land-wise, it's Master of Waves dependent. I personally wouldn't go lower than 20 even without master though.
Not everyone is splashing and in mono u, snag is the best non-dismember analogue. Snag also does a very good job with slowing opponents (if you don't have another t1 play, bouncing deathrite/birds/hierarch is good. Also helps that in a sense, snag denies your opponent mana while path gives them some.
I'm surprised a lot of people are starting to play vapor snags maindecks with no counterspells. I think that vapor snag isn't good enough that it can be played without counterspells alongside it. Vapor snag does delay threats like goyf and wurmcoil if all you need is to get in that extra point of damage and it can act as a good disruption spell against pod and twin, however there are a lot of weaknesses it just doesn't patch.
For instance, playing snags with no counterspells means you have no way to stop an opponent from assembling tron T3 or T4 without seas, no way to stop Karns, T3 pyroclasms, living ends, scapeshifts, counterspells, or storms and in general just makes this deck feel like a bad affinity deck. All of those things can immediately end the game and I feel that those decks are popular enough to warrant having responses maindeck. Though you can fix it post-board I just don't think this deck is good enough that the gameplan for those matchups can be winning games 2&3.
I've been messing around with disrupting shoals maindeck as a 3-3 split with vapor snag and I've been pretty pleased with the results so far. I think shoal warrants some new interest considering relevant modern CMCs are 1-4, all of which are now present in typical merfolk lists. The only deck that doesn't quite fit into that curve is tron, however with enough 3-drops in your list shoal can reliably counter the tutors that search for tron, pyroclasms, and semi-reliably counter oblivion stone. True, you 2-for-1 yourself, but with 8 cantrips in the deck there's usually something you can pitch. I'd accept a 2-for-1 if it meant pitching a redundant spreading seas or something to counter a goyf.
I don't play on MTGO so if running snags with no counterspells is just a metagame call then apologies and ignore this post.
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Modern UMerfolk GBWMelira PodRIP GBW Abzan Midrange GBR Jund Midrange
is Swan Song a thing in Merfolk now? or is the bird too big of a trade?
I could see it being okay against creature light decks. If I'm in race mode though, the last thing I want to give my opponent is a clear way to fly over and kill me.
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Modern: Merfolk
Commander:Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
Standard: Rabble/Dash Red
Tempest: The list which is placing with snags but no (well, 1 pierce) counters is card for card the one I was placing with before DEs went down.
The lack of md countermagic is largely a metagame call. We don't want much against jund which was, at the time, the winningest deck online.
Of the things you listed, the only ones which have been problems for me in the past are pyroclasm and storm.
Spreading seas does slow tron down by a turn or two and that's usually enough to win, pyroclasm notwithstanding. Living end is slowed by cursecatcher enough that we can win before they go off usually (and p image copying catcher). Scapeshift depends on the number of pyroclasms/firespouts they have in the main which usually isn't too many.
Storm isn't too common online so it's not much of a concern. If it was a bigger player, there would be at least another 2 counters in the main.
Control also had declined significantly online so counters were significantly less effective.
I haven't had the time to play (and probably won't until January) so I don't know about shoal. It's good for when you need to tap out, but I don't know if it's worth it or not to have a partial counter with card disadvantage.
Jace/jb: I really like swan song in the board as it's at the perfect 1cmc slot for a counter and is brought in against decks where the 2/2 is unlikely to do anything. It's a very good counter in those matchups with this deck.
is Swan Song a thing in Merfolk now? or is the bird too big of a trade?
It's a thing but for most people it's sideboard only. For the most part it's only sided in in matchups that aren't really a race and giving them a 2/2 flier isn't a significant threat. I'm not so certain about it because I can very easily imagine that giving opponents a 2/2 as a blocker would be a problem without islandwalk; it either becomes a chump blocker for free or keeps me from attacking with 2/2s. Granted, it's better than being pyroclasm'd but I think there are better counterspells.
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Modern UMerfolk GBWMelira PodRIP GBW Abzan Midrange GBR Jund Midrange
is Swan Song a thing in Merfolk now? or is the bird too big of a trade?
I would not yet run it, even in my sideboard. Better counter available (I'm a fan of remand and deprive personally, but I'm curious to hear how anyone who has played with it has done in actual tournaments.
The thing about swan song is that you board it in almost exclusively (well, actually exclusively, excluding some sort of combo brew) against blue decks. The blocker does not matter in those situations and the attacker very, very rarely is relevant.
I've played with it many, many times and it hasn't disappointed. The sideboard of mine which I posted earlier was actually changed to have 2 copies (over 1 unified will) but the de placings I had weren't recorded before the events went down. I contemplated going up to 3 considering that swan song was over-performing.
IMO Affinity and Boggles are the worst matchups by far. They're the only deck that I consistently have had a sub-50% win rate against. Everything else that I've played against has been favorable.
They have Islands? Yeah you can outrace. If you're really worried pack more Vapor Snag or Dismember even. Let their guys through at first, don't let a flipped Delver stick around, and then outrace.
Has anyone played against the Ninja-Delver deck? Is it a good matchup because of the lords? The deck is very hyped at the moment and with a couple GP trials coming up I expect to face it.
I haven't played against NINJA delver exactly, but I have played against a lot of UR delver decks and haven't had any issues with it. Our list is usually much faster and if you can draw spellskites or Kira's it's a walkover.
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Modern UMerfolk GBWMelira PodRIP GBW Abzan Midrange GBR Jund Midrange
I found them threat-light and thus us as the beatdown even after I boarded out my vials (probably a bad choice but I wanted to see what would happen)
--snag delvers once they flip, its not a sure thing it will again when it relands.
--clique is a fast clock, but if you can counter it or get coralhelm to fly whatever. Its disruption ability is bad because of our consistency, when they took a card I never minded drawing another one.
--the shoals aren't good against us, though they counter a lot.
--the bear doesn't work against us, neither does their mutavault, side out some spreading seas against them.
be a bad sport and make fun of their deck, it is a stupid deck.
I ran some matches against the Ninja Delver deck and easily your best card would be Aether Vial to get around their counter suite. I ran 5 matches with it and I could say that we have nothing to worry about. The fact that we have Islandwalk, we can easily look past their insane cantrip, beating their card advantage with our board advantage.
Here's the list I have been running in my testing:
Spreading Seas is a dead card even if you use it against Mutavault, you'll just gonna be helping them fix their mana.
Post-board, I don't have a solid SB yet. If the deck catches on, it won't hurt to probably pack more counters or creatures just so you could be sure to outrace them every step of the way.
I'd say the only thing to note is try and keep a non-spell counter up so you can prevent their cryptic commands from timewalking you by tapping down all your creatures.
As I lean towards testing some gitaxian probe this will probably be easier to tell if I should keep up a counter.
I found them threat-light and thus us as the beatdown...
I would agree. I run Path to Exile out of the board, which when combined with Vapor snag really does it.
Watching some of the streams really make me want to try Disrupting Shoal (which I know has been discussed in the past), though I would think their higher number of cantrips would lead to greater effectiveness.
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Modern: Merfolk
Commander:Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
Standard: Rabble/Dash Red
Did some more testing, Master of Waves is a much better option than Wake Thrasher. The Pro-Red is what really does it. Can't be pyroclasmed, can't be bolted, can't be helixed. That's a winner. I've replaced the three wake thrashers I had with two master of waves and another island. That's reliable enough to draw it in late game consistently and not get flooded with them, which would be exceptionally bad. Just remember that these guys also buff your Mutavaults. That's a big deal.
I think we should switch gears from the counterspell debate because right now there are a lot of cool options for the sideboard: Hurkyl's Recall is probably the best blue artifact control in the game right now. My bet is that affinity is going to be really relevant. I'm not sure we really have a relevant alternative unless we're running more than mono colors. If you're splashing red Shattering Spree and ancient grudge come to mind, and with white Kataki, War's Wage is the best artifact removal in the game.
Tormod's Crypt comes out more often than not for Tarmogoyf and Scavenging Ooze protection, but for that Relic of Progenitus would do us just fine.
Unfortunately Phantasmal Image can't be an Emrakul Self-Destruct button anymore, but it is pretty great because it can come in and copy an opposing win condition in an instant. I like the one-of. Sower of Temptation fills a similar role, both of which are just tons of fun if the deck needs to be more control-flavored.
I'm a fan of cards like Chalice of the Void and Engineered Explosives. Since Explosvies is useless in this deck, what I usually do is against removal heavy decks I'll throw down a vial or two, and spend two mana on the Chalice to set it at 1. Counters the majority of removal spells, cuts out later Bogles, Rancors, some counterspells, kills the Delver deck, etc. Pithing Needle is a must in my opinion, just name Birthing Pod or their manland and win the game. It's a must-have. In the same vein, Kira, Great Glass-Spinner is an incredible counter to creature interaction and removal. I'd almost mainboard it but I like the Spellskite better.
Lastly, Tidebinder Mage is a definite auto-include for the sideboard and may take over a spot in the mainboard. Tapping down whatever dumb crazy beater card they've put out on the board with a vialed in two-drop is incredibly satisfying. All you have to do after that is protect the mage, and you've got it in the bag.
Hurkyl's Recall is pretty much an essential sideboard card for this deck since affinity is such a problem. A lot of people don't play it sideboard because, if I remember right, on MTGO it's over $10 but only about $5 in paper. People have debated between hurkyl's recall and steel sabotage, however I think they can be run side-by-side; against some decks like Mono-U and RG Tron steel sabotage does some very good work while recall is pretty much useless. Sower of Temptation is interesting but I think we have to keep in mind that this deck is still an aggro deck at heart and that the curve should be as low as possible.
Some people have been playing tidebinder mage, however I don't think she's all that good. 90% of the time when you go to play her and tap down a goyf she just immediately gets killed, and it doesn't help that every red deck runs bolt and nearly every green deck as well. This deck has issues against decks with lots of removal and tidebinder doesn't do anything to alleviate that, she's just another bolt target and just takes up space in the sideboard.
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Modern UMerfolk GBWMelira PodRIP GBW Abzan Midrange GBR Jund Midrange
Hurkyl's Recall is pretty much an essential sideboard card for this deck since affinity is such a problem. A lot of people don't play it sideboard because, if I remember right, on MTGO it's over $10 but only about $5 in paper. People have debated between hurkyl's recall and steel sabotage, however I think they can be run side-by-side; against some decks like Mono-U and RG Tron steel sabotage does some very good work while recall is pretty much useless. Sower of Temptation is interesting but I think we have to keep in mind that this deck is still an aggro deck at heart and that the curve should be as low as possible.
Some people have been playing tidebinder mage, however I don't think she's all that good. 90% of the time when you go to play her and tap down a goyf she just immediately gets killed, and it doesn't help that every red deck runs bolt and nearly every green deck as well. This deck has issues against decks with lots of removal and tidebinder doesn't do anything to alleviate that, she's just another bolt target and just takes up space in the sideboard.
Tidebinder mage is also another merfolk to beat down with in the side when you want to become more aggro. i think its one of the best cards in the side and I wouldn't run less than 2. Also, any bolt that doesn't target a lord is very good in my opinion.
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Edit: posts popped up since I last refreshed.
Darkshar: If I take out Thassa or a Kira, reejery comes in. It also will come in if you have an extra slot but that's kind of rare.
Jb: No fetches? If you're going to run white, I'd suggest them and/or some seachrome coasts.
Land-wise, it's Master of Waves dependent. I personally wouldn't go lower than 20 even without master though.
Generally...
Kira > spellskite > sygg. (Devotion + master) + evasive threat + manaless protection > manaless protection + archetype hoser > mana-hungry protection.
Not everyone is splashing and in mono u, snag is the best non-dismember analogue. Snag also does a very good job with slowing opponents (if you don't have another t1 play, bouncing deathrite/birds/hierarch is good. Also helps that in a sense, snag denies your opponent mana while path gives them some.
For instance, playing snags with no counterspells means you have no way to stop an opponent from assembling tron T3 or T4 without seas, no way to stop Karns, T3 pyroclasms, living ends, scapeshifts, counterspells, or storms and in general just makes this deck feel like a bad affinity deck. All of those things can immediately end the game and I feel that those decks are popular enough to warrant having responses maindeck. Though you can fix it post-board I just don't think this deck is good enough that the gameplan for those matchups can be winning games 2&3.
I've been messing around with disrupting shoals maindeck as a 3-3 split with vapor snag and I've been pretty pleased with the results so far. I think shoal warrants some new interest considering relevant modern CMCs are 1-4, all of which are now present in typical merfolk lists. The only deck that doesn't quite fit into that curve is tron, however with enough 3-drops in your list shoal can reliably counter the tutors that search for tron, pyroclasms, and semi-reliably counter oblivion stone. True, you 2-for-1 yourself, but with 8 cantrips in the deck there's usually something you can pitch. I'd accept a 2-for-1 if it meant pitching a redundant spreading seas or something to counter a goyf.
I don't play on MTGO so if running snags with no counterspells is just a metagame call then apologies and ignore this post.
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
I could see it being okay against creature light decks. If I'm in race mode though, the last thing I want to give my opponent is a clear way to fly over and kill me.
Modern: Merfolk
Commander:Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
Standard: Rabble/Dash Red
The lack of md countermagic is largely a metagame call. We don't want much against jund which was, at the time, the winningest deck online.
Of the things you listed, the only ones which have been problems for me in the past are pyroclasm and storm.
Spreading seas does slow tron down by a turn or two and that's usually enough to win, pyroclasm notwithstanding. Living end is slowed by cursecatcher enough that we can win before they go off usually (and p image copying catcher). Scapeshift depends on the number of pyroclasms/firespouts they have in the main which usually isn't too many.
Storm isn't too common online so it's not much of a concern. If it was a bigger player, there would be at least another 2 counters in the main.
Control also had declined significantly online so counters were significantly less effective.
I haven't had the time to play (and probably won't until January) so I don't know about shoal. It's good for when you need to tap out, but I don't know if it's worth it or not to have a partial counter with card disadvantage.
Jace/jb: I really like swan song in the board as it's at the perfect 1cmc slot for a counter and is brought in against decks where the 2/2 is unlikely to do anything. It's a very good counter in those matchups with this deck.
It's a thing but for most people it's sideboard only. For the most part it's only sided in in matchups that aren't really a race and giving them a 2/2 flier isn't a significant threat. I'm not so certain about it because I can very easily imagine that giving opponents a 2/2 as a blocker would be a problem without islandwalk; it either becomes a chump blocker for free or keeps me from attacking with 2/2s. Granted, it's better than being pyroclasm'd but I think there are better counterspells.
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
I would not yet run it, even in my sideboard. Better counter available (I'm a fan of remand and deprive personally, but I'm curious to hear how anyone who has played with it has done in actual tournaments.
How To Keep Your FOIL Cards From Curling: http://youtu.be/QTmubrS8VnI
The Best Deck Boxes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEwgLph_Pjk
The Best Binders: http://youtu.be/H5IauASYWjk
I've played with it many, many times and it hasn't disappointed. The sideboard of mine which I posted earlier was actually changed to have 2 copies (over 1 unified will) but the de placings I had weren't recorded before the events went down. I contemplated going up to 3 considering that swan song was over-performing.
Which decks are the worst matchups for fish? so when I go to a bigger event I can prepare better.
Current List
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
2 Merrow Reejerey
4 AEther Vial
4 Vapor Snag
4 Cursecatcher
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Mutavault
13 Island
2 Spreading Seas
2 Thassa, God of the Sea
2 Mana Leak
4 Remand
3 Spell Pierce
2 Boomerang
4 Silvergill Adept
2 Spellskite
1 Spreading Seas
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Spell Snare
1 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Threads of Disloyalty
1 Negate
2 Steel Sabotage
Is deprive worth it?
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My Trade Thread
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My Trade Thread
I haven't played against NINJA delver exactly, but I have played against a lot of UR delver decks and haven't had any issues with it. Our list is usually much faster and if you can draw spellskites or Kira's it's a walkover.
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
--snag delvers once they flip, its not a sure thing it will again when it relands.
--clique is a fast clock, but if you can counter it or get coralhelm to fly whatever. Its disruption ability is bad because of our consistency, when they took a card I never minded drawing another one.
--the shoals aren't good against us, though they counter a lot.
--the bear doesn't work against us, neither does their mutavault, side out some spreading seas against them.
be a bad sport and make fun of their deck, it is a stupid deck.
I laughed really hard at this.
RIP Eggs
My Trade Thread
Here's the list I have been running in my testing:
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Silvergill Adept
2 Kira, Great Glass Spinner
1 Wake Thrasher
4 Aether Vial
4 Spreading Seas
4 Vapor Snag
4 Spell Pierce
17 Island
4 Mutavault
Spreading Seas is a dead card even if you use it against Mutavault, you'll just gonna be helping them fix their mana.
Post-board, I don't have a solid SB yet. If the deck catches on, it won't hurt to probably pack more counters or creatures just so you could be sure to outrace them every step of the way.
As I lean towards testing some gitaxian probe this will probably be easier to tell if I should keep up a counter.
I would agree. I run Path to Exile out of the board, which when combined with Vapor snag really does it.
Watching some of the streams really make me want to try Disrupting Shoal (which I know has been discussed in the past), though I would think their higher number of cantrips would lead to greater effectiveness.
Modern: Merfolk
Commander:Grimgrin, Corpse-Born
Standard: Rabble/Dash Red
Current deck:
16 Island
4 Mutavault
Creatures
4 Cosi's Trickster
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
2 Master of Waves
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Silvergill Adept
2 Spellskite
4 Æther Vial
4 Spreading Seas
4 Vapor Snag
2 Tidebinder Mage
2 Mana Leak
2 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Sower of Temptation
2 Pithing Needle
3 Tormod's Crypt
1 Phantasmal Image
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
I think we should switch gears from the counterspell debate because right now there are a lot of cool options for the sideboard: Hurkyl's Recall is probably the best blue artifact control in the game right now. My bet is that affinity is going to be really relevant. I'm not sure we really have a relevant alternative unless we're running more than mono colors. If you're splashing red Shattering Spree and ancient grudge come to mind, and with white Kataki, War's Wage is the best artifact removal in the game.
Tormod's Crypt comes out more often than not for Tarmogoyf and Scavenging Ooze protection, but for that Relic of Progenitus would do us just fine.
Unfortunately Phantasmal Image can't be an Emrakul Self-Destruct button anymore, but it is pretty great because it can come in and copy an opposing win condition in an instant. I like the one-of. Sower of Temptation fills a similar role, both of which are just tons of fun if the deck needs to be more control-flavored.
I'm a fan of cards like Chalice of the Void and Engineered Explosives. Since Explosvies is useless in this deck, what I usually do is against removal heavy decks I'll throw down a vial or two, and spend two mana on the Chalice to set it at 1. Counters the majority of removal spells, cuts out later Bogles, Rancors, some counterspells, kills the Delver deck, etc. Pithing Needle is a must in my opinion, just name Birthing Pod or their manland and win the game. It's a must-have. In the same vein, Kira, Great Glass-Spinner is an incredible counter to creature interaction and removal. I'd almost mainboard it but I like the Spellskite better.
Lastly, Tidebinder Mage is a definite auto-include for the sideboard and may take over a spot in the mainboard. Tapping down whatever dumb crazy beater card they've put out on the board with a vialed in two-drop is incredibly satisfying. All you have to do after that is protect the mage, and you've got it in the bag.
Some people have been playing tidebinder mage, however I don't think she's all that good. 90% of the time when you go to play her and tap down a goyf she just immediately gets killed, and it doesn't help that every red deck runs bolt and nearly every green deck as well. This deck has issues against decks with lots of removal and tidebinder doesn't do anything to alleviate that, she's just another bolt target and just takes up space in the sideboard.
UMerfolkGBW
Melira PodRIPGBW Abzan Midrange
GBR Jund Midrange
EDH
GBR Prossh
Tidebinder mage is also another merfolk to beat down with in the side when you want to become more aggro. i think its one of the best cards in the side and I wouldn't run less than 2. Also, any bolt that doesn't target a lord is very good in my opinion.