- Ingot Chewer in SB: Do you side him in every match on purpose ? Because common GY hate is artifact based ?
- Do you side GY hate like Faerie Macabre in to prevent "minor" gy plays of the opponent (like Snapcaster, Ravager tricks to abuse our LE, ...)
-
As you can see there are some free slots. I consider Gnaw to the Bone, Avalanche Riders, Faerie Macabre or straight +2 Cyclers.
In the SB I consider more Gnaw to the Bone, more Removal, Ricochet Trap (good against Combo ?), Jund Charm, Ingot Chewer, Maelstrom Pulse, Creeping Corrosion ...
What would you chose ? (As mentioned before: I expect Storm Combo, Splinter Twin, Tron, Robots, Tron, BUG, ...)
So I recently sleeved up a version of living end and took it to a PTQ here in Wisconsin (my first PTQ and Modern tourney), and I figured I at least owe this thread some match reports because the discussions helped me out so much. I didn't do very well, going 3-5, but for a first outing with the deck I wasn't completely upset, especially because I hit RedXWins twice early. It could've easily been at least 4-4, possibly 5-3 if I'd played a little better I think.
I came in with a pretty standard version, choosing to run 2 Avalanche Riders and 3 Faeries mainboard. The riders were maybe a bit slow against a few of my matchups, but the faeries always did work. I'd post the decklist, but I'm not sure how.
Match 1: RedXWins
Game 1 I probably shocked myself a little too hard with wraiths and lands looking for my combo, and I'm not sure if I timed my fulminators right to get maximum usage out of them. I think I may have let him cast cards that he wouldn't have been able to, because I was looking to block goblin guide (I think it was guide) and get a land. Too greedy, I think. I got him to 12 before I died.
Game 2 I played a little bit more conservatively, and I did better. I sided in 3 Brindle Boars, none of which I saw at all throughout the whole dang day much less this game. The only really relevant play I think I did, besides just fetching basics to conserve life, is nabbing a Vexing Devil with a Faerie during a cascade.
I got him to 4 before Rakdos Charm made me kill myself.
0-1
Match 2: Bant
Game 1 (which was actually 2 because I took a stupid game loss for forgetting to cross out a card on my deck reg) I ended up having to Living End all three times (why exactly I forget, I think it was because of counters). Nothing too atrocious here, I ended up using Faerie to chump against a Geist angel token. Not being able to deal with Geist via Beast Within is what prompted the 3rd Cascade, I know that for sure. But I won with 5 life.
Game 2, Avalanche Riders blew up his lands. And blew up his lands some more. And then blew up his lands again. I lost one life from a fetch all game.
1-1
Round 3: RedXWins (Again)
Game 1 I had crappy hands and mulled down to 5. Nothing exciting here, as I basically just lost.
Game 2 I was stabilizing off an end and had enough power to kill on board, but got killed by Boros Charm at 4 life. Again, didn't see a single Brindle Boar. Also, the opponent actually did not play a single creature this game, and so Leyline of Sanctity would've turned off every single play he made. Something to consider when I have an extra $40 lying around.
1-2
Round 4: BUG
This deck started out pretty easy to play against in Game 1. I may have played around one counter, but my opponent basically scooped after I resolved an end.
He then proceeded to board in about 12 cards.
Game 2 was super drawn out and one of the most intense games of Magic I've played. He had discard early and took a beast within. I resolved an end only to walk into damnation. Once I resolved an outburst into end, he surgically extracted it (this works into how I eventually lost game 3). Dryad Arbor, of all things, looked like it might win the game until he finally topdecked a Deathrite. I had him at 2, but then couldn't get past Deathrite (where was wolf run!? buried somewhere in my deck). He slowly pinged me to death and when I tried to resolve a Jungle Weaver he remanded it, buying him time to win.
The only real mistake I may have made in this game is cycling a Minotaur because I thought I might have to end again/figured he had removal/a counter anyways. I then proceeded to go into man mode later. Drawing out a counter might've let me win with the weaver.
Game 3 was just ugly. I drew a Living End and, for some stupid reason, kept the hand. He made me discard it and then surgically extracted it. GG
1-3
Round 5: BUG Infect
This matchup went way easier than I thought it would, but I recognize that I got lucky in both games. First game my opponent mulled to 4 and dealt 8 infect to me before I ended with 20 power on board (I cycled a whole bunch of street wraiths).
Second game was a little bit more of a match. The Faeries did a ton of work here, grabbing Rancors in response to their trigger so they couldn't come back. Considering I ended the game at 7 infect, that's a big deal. I also had to beast within an inkmonth nexus. I didn't have as many creatures in the yard, so the kill was slower.
Getting to three lands on turn three seems to be of the utmost importance. I didn't have Dismembers in my side, choosing instead to play Sudden Death (I didn't see a pod or splinter twin match all day to use them with), so my best outs were Beast Within and just blowing dudes up with a three mana wrath.
2-3
Round 6: American Delver
Neither of these games went well for me. He ALWAYS had counters and was never tapped out so he could always play them. This is probably the only match I played where I'm not sure how I would've won it at all. I blew up lands, but that wasn't enough. I even tried to end into end. This match may have sold me on putting Ricochet Trap in the board...
I'm not sure if I sided the sudden deaths in for this matchup, but I probably should've if I didn't. Just buying turns by killing Delvers would've been nice.
2-4
Round 7: Blue-Black Affinity
Honestly, this was a good deck with a homebrew combo thrown into it, so I'm glad I won this match. I lost the first game, but then sided in Ingot Chewers and Damping Matrices to blow up artifacts and shut down plating. The last game I didn't even get any guys off of my first Living End, but I blew up four of his and that was enough.
Games 2 and 3 weren't even close.
3-4
Round 8: Robots Affinity
I again lost game one and then sided in my artifact hate. He had asked me if I had Stony Silence before the match started, and I answered with "Sort of". When he saw Damping in game 2, he knew what I meant.
I won Game 2 at ten life and feeling pretty decent, but I proceeded to just play awfully in game 3. Wolf Run left me with awkward mana for outburts, and putting my ends at sorcery speed with Dread wasn't good enough. An Ethersworn Canonist shut me down for a turn, but beast withining it actually gave me a legal target for Demonic Dread, as the only other creature out at the time was the "Protection from all colors" guy.
But using the beast on ethersworn meant I didn't use it on plating, and that thing bashed my head in again. I could've done a second living end if I wasn't stupid and had landcycled like I meant to. I don't really even count this game as a loss, as I should have won if I'd grabbed lands right. So the lesson I learned is be sure you have a separate source for all your colors, as having a Copperline Gorge isn't the same as having both a red and green source.
Overall thoughts:
I liked Avalanche Riders against slower decks, but against a lot of faster decks like RedX and Affinity and especially the American Delver with its plethora of super cheap counters it might be better to just be another cycler and/or land. I'm going to experiment with moving my two copies to the side and seeing what happens next time I play. I do like being able to hit Inkmoths and having him for longer games, but he made a couple hands awkward against the fast guys.
Possible inclusions include 2 copies of Architects of Will or another Jungle Weaver and a Raging Ravine. Ravine might help in situations like Round 4 where my board stalled just because I had no creatures out.
I would always keep at least 2 Faeries main. They helped me out in so many games, whether grabbing Rancors or the opponent's guys so they couldn't come back from Living Ends. I had 3 main and I'm not sure if that's one too many, but I would never go below 2.
For my sideboard, I think I want to get the 4th boar in and I'm considering moving to Leyline next time I have money to drop. It would've won me game 2 of both RedX matches if I'd drawn it and gotten even just 4 life. I also didn't use my 4 Sudden Deaths that much and may change them out for 3 Ricochet Traps and a floating card. I'm also keeping in mind though that I didn't play against the decks Sudden death is decent against. I also might cut one ingot chewer and try to sneak a couple Krosan Grips in, because I forgot Torpor Orb is a thing.
Oh, forgot to mention that I got Grafdigger's Caged in game 2 of the BUG Infect match. I tried my best to look super concerned when my opponent dropped it. I think he kind of expected me to flip out about it, so I tried to play into that.
Then I just cascaded into End on Turn 3 anyways and we proceeded to read the card together. He was unhappy.
I tweaked my list a bit based on one of the decklists not too far above - The big change was bringing in 3 simian spirit guides main and 1 gnaw. The guy above played 2 gnaws main, but I couldn't bring myself to play 2 so I dropped it down to 1 and left in 1 faerie macabre.
I went 2-1 tonight taking 4th out of 8 players.
Game 1: 2-0 vs RDW. Maindeck gnaw stole game 1, gaining me 14 life between cast and flashback. I still won at 2 life, and had to 1-shot him with an alpha strike of 5 guys plus violent outburst.
Game 2: 0-2 vs RDW. This was embarrassing as the guy was playing a standard RDW deck... game one I mull to 6 and see a poor hand with no cyclers but 2 lands and the 1 maindeck gnaw. I get 10 life off the gnaw but I have to beast within lands to stall and just die with him at 20. Game 2 I put something like 5 cyclers in the yard, played and chumped with a macabre on t3... and proceeded to see 8 lands and ZERO cascade spells... more on this later.
Game 3: 2-0 vs UW. He played blade splicer, path, mana leak, and serra avenger... not sure that this is a deck. Game 1 he tapped out I cascaded and won. Game 2 saw t2 meddling mage on living end which I eventually took out with beast within and then cascaded. It was very close as I had to wait for an opening to beast within, and he had serra avenger with sword of feast and famine out. I swung once the whole game, for lethal.
Here are my thoughts on the deck right now:
1. This deck has consistency issues that it doesn't look like it should have. I'm seeing too many games where I cycle and cycle and never hit a cascade spell, and games where I get opening hands with no cyclers, and games where I draw a bunch of fulminators against a bunch of basic lands. Games where I draw 2 of my living ends into my hand. Games where I flood and only draw pale recluce. Games where I kill myself on shocklands.
2. Dryad arbor stinks. This deck does not want killable summoning sick lands early on, nor does it want lands that die to its primary spell. Even trading with a stormkirk noble on turn 1 was a fail because I couldn't cascade for an extra turn.
3. Faerie macabre is basically always good. I left one in MD and was grateful everytime I drew it.
4. Simian spirit guide looks decent, but I don't know if I want 3. I will probably chop this down to 2 and see how it goes. I like making other decks respect the possibility of him, and he's very good with riccochet trap (force of will anyone?) but he's a real lousy topdeck.
5. One gnaw to the bone maindeck seems good. You don't want to draw 2 ever, but this is a huge difference vs any aggressive deck when you draw it, and it just generally helps take the edge off of shocks and street wraiths in any non-combo based game.
1. This deck has consistency issues that it doesn't look like it should have. I'm seeing too many games where I cycle and cycle and never hit a cascade spell, and games where I get opening hands with no cyclers, and games where I draw a bunch of fulminators against a bunch of basic lands. Games where I draw 2 of my living ends into my hand. Games where I flood and only draw pale recluce. Games where I kill myself on shocklands.
2. Dryad arbor stinks. This deck does not want killable summoning sick lands early on, nor does it want lands that die to its primary spell. Even trading with a stormkirk noble on turn 1 was a fail because I couldn't cascade for an extra turn.
3. Faerie macabre is basically always good. I left one in MD and was grateful everytime I drew it.
4. Simian spirit guide looks decent, but I don't know if I want 3. I will probably chop this down to 2 and see how it goes. I like making other decks respect the possibility of him, and he's very good with riccochet trap (force of will anyone?) but he's a real lousy topdeck.
5. One gnaw to the bone maindeck seems good. You don't want to draw 2 ever, but this is a huge difference vs any aggressive deck when you draw it, and it just generally helps take the edge off of shocks and street wraiths in any non-combo based game.
I'd like to offer some opinions on a few of your points:
First of all, anyone who goes so far as to say Dryad Arbor "stinks" probably isn't playing her correctly. The whole idea behind her is to enable Demonic Dread more consistently. Unless you were unfortunate enough to draw it in the first three or four turns, you'll just be snatching it up with Pale Recluse to setup Dread on your next turn (which your opponent can't interrupt anyways because Arbor isn't a spell and they don't gain priority until you try to do something else), or, ideally, fetching her EOT with Verdant Catacombs, which makes the summoning sickness a moot point.
Without her or Forbidden Orchard to produce a target, you have an even lower chance of getting the cascade spell you need to win. And then your deck really DOES have a consistency issue.
Speaking of which, a few of your complaints about the deck's consistency are misguided. For one, "killing yourself with shocklands" is a sign that you need to treat your life as a more precious resource, since there are only a few matchups where playing a shock tapped or untapped makes a difference so early in the game. Drawing Fulminators against basic lands is just dumb luck, and if it's happening frequently, also a sign of an underdeveloped meta. You're already aware that drawing Living Ends is an acknowledged risk associated with this particular combo. We can't just jam in See Beyond or something similar to smooth things out - we have to suck it up and deal with it.
Everything else you mentioned is just variance, and can happen to any deck at any time. Floods happen; screws happen. We're Magic players, and we deal. If you think it's a legitimate issue, cut/add cards to put the ratios where you think they should be and post some results. You may very well be on to something!
One more thing: I think it's great that the last couple posters have had success with Gnaw to the Bone in the maindeck, but I still can't justify playing a straight lifegain card in my 60. It just feels REALLY bad.
First of all, anyone who goes so far as to say Dryad Arbor "stinks" probably isn't playing her correctly. The whole idea behind her is to enable Demonic Dread more consistently. Unless you were unfortunate enough to draw it in the first three or four turns, you'll just be snatching it up with Pale Recluse to setup Dread on your next turn (which your opponent can't interrupt anyways because Arbor isn't a spell and they don't gain priority until you try to do something else), or, ideally, fetching her EOT with Verdant Catacombs, which makes the summoning sickness a moot point.
Without her or Forbidden Orchard to produce a target, you have an even lower chance of getting the cascade spell you need to win. And then your deck really DOES have a consistency issue.
If my opponent has 0 creatures out, why am I in such a rush to cascade? I don't think 've actually never seen a situation where I couldn't use dread because the board was empty. I know thats one application of arbor, but I thought it was also to provide emergency blocker vs aggro decks. If the use of the card is really that, then it makes sense I'd dislike the card because I've never had lack of dread target be a problem.
Everything else you mentioned is just variance, and can happen to any deck at any time.
This is certainly true, but in addition to flood and screw, this deck seems to have a real risk of not drawing enough/any cascade and not drawing enough/any cyclers. I'm not sure the exact threshold but usually I think I want atleast 3 creatures in the yard to make the cascade a threat, while sometimes I need to cascade t3 to stem the tide of deathrite shamans, dark confidants, delvers, etc. So sometimes its just that my only cycler was a jungle weaver and I don't have time to play fulminator out, I have to wrath now or take an extra 8 dmg, or I can't let them untap in case of remand. So I trade their 2-3 guys and bring out weaver, it gets pathed, and now it gets awkward.
I feel like the awkwardly bad hands should happen relatively rarely. When I was testing on cockatrice I almost never saw this happen. Since sleeving it up for events I've played like 25 games or so, and seen this happen like 5 or 6 times. A 20% chance of just crapping out with poor draws seems absurdly high for a deck that doesnt insta-win with a given combo.
If my opponent has 0 creatures out, why am I in such a rush to cascade? I don't think 've actually never seen a situation where I couldn't use dread because the board was empty. I know thats one application of arbor, but I thought it was also to provide emergency blocker vs aggro decks. If the use of the card is really that, then it makes sense I'd dislike the card because I've never had lack of dread target be a problem.
GW Bogle is a deck, and it uses all hexproof creatures. Storm wins with a grapeshot and doesn't need a creature on the board to win. Neither does Eggs. Affinity might only have an Etched Champion that you can't target. Tron will kill you with Karn or drop Emrakul (who can't be targetted by Dread). Twin often won't play a creature until EOT - and then its too late to stop the combo.
tl;dr - You often need a creature so you have a Dread target, and Dryad Arbor is fetchable and totally worth its inclusion as a 1-of.
The affinity thing with Etched Champion totally happened to me at my tournament. I targeted a beast I ended up making with Beast Within, but having essentially five more ways to get a creature in that situation (with all the Catacombs) is probably not a bad thing.
This is the list I'm looking at for now. Any advice would be greatly appreciated:
Like I said, I had two Avalanche Riders main, but I think they're too slow and so moved them to the board, replacing them with another Weaver and Raging Ravine for now. Would I be better suited making them into two Architects of Will? I definitely want to have more cyclers than I had. Also, is 4 Beast Within the absolute right number? Sometimes I had multiples when I just wanted to cycle, but when I really needed it I was glad to see it.
I really liked how Ingot Chewer and Damping Matrix did out of the board, but I cut one of each for Krosan Grip because I figure I could use a little extra enchant hate and possibly something unexpected to blow up artifacts that doesn't die to Torpor Orb and drawing two Matrixes isn't great most games. My main substitution from the last tourney is taking out 4 Sudden Death for 3 Ricochet Trap and an extra Brindle Boar, because I really wanted to see that guy in both RedX matchups.
GW Bogle is a deck, and it uses all hexproof creatures. Storm wins with a grapeshot and doesn't need a creature on the board to win. Neither does Eggs. Affinity might only have an Etched Champion that you can't target. Tron will kill you with Karn or drop Emrakul (who can't be targetted by Dread). Twin often won't play a creature until EOT - and then its too late to stop the combo.
tl;dr - You often need a creature so you have a Dread target, and Dryad Arbor is fetchable and totally worth its inclusion as a 1-of.
I'll add to this--you need to clock Scapeshift or it will dome you with its 7+ lands from a Scapeshift. Don't count on them getting out a Tiago or a Sakura-Tribe Elder (usually only 6 cards in total).
(At least it's slightly easier to try to hit one of Burn's creatures. Hellspark Elemental can't be hit by Demonic Dread, though, and it may not be worth losing 8 points of life total to let Vexing Devil stick.)
I feel like the awkwardly bad hands should happen relatively rarely. When I was testing on cockatrice I almost never saw this happen. Since sleeving it up for events I've played like 25 games or so, and seen this happen like 5 or 6 times. A 20% chance of just crapping out with poor draws seems absurdly high for a deck that doesnt insta-win with a given combo.
Post your list. Maybe the solution for you is to just jam more cyclers in there, but I could be of more help if I knew exactly what you were playing.
Here are some probability curves to show what your actual chances of drawing a cascade spell are. By 7 draws into your deck after the starting hand you'll have run into 1 of 8 cascade spells in a 60 card deck between 90% and 97% of the time depending on your mulligans
My math is shown below.
Chance to not draw a cascade spell in 1 card draw:
CND=(52-draws)/(60-draws)
Chance to not draw a cascade spell in a series of card draws:
SCND=CND1*CND2*CND3....
Each chance to not draw is slightly different based upon how many draws you've had.
Chance to draw a cascade spell in a series of card draws:
1-SCND
Mulligans take into account that you've already seen your previous hand's cards and are proceeding to see a new hand before drawing new cards.
This is pretty basic, but is meant to show that you should not be missing your combo piece that often.
Considering I still actually haven't had a chance to play this deck anywhere because I live in Bum****, Nowhere, I have to say this: I've goldfished this deck plenty of times. And maybe twice in the entirety of the 100+ times I've done it ended with me not being able to go off when I wanted to. This includes mulligans though. As they are incredibly important.
Then again, hard to know if you're going to be able to go off or not if you're not playing against anything. Just wanted to point out the consistency that I'm getting with the deck. And a 1%/2% chance to never be able to go off is perfectly fine with me for consistency. Oh, and I've never really dislike Arbor. I just never understood how to play it before until I realised 'Oh, I shouldn't be playing this early'. Unless of course it's like a turn one Catacombs in to an Arbor. Cause that's fine.
I still really like the deck and feel like I'm learning a lot from just you guys discussing it. I can't wait until next Monday. I think I finally have a place to go test it out.
It's been a while. Sorry I haven't shown my face around the last few pages
I got pretty disheartened after the 2nd PTQ and all the testing I put into it. A lot more bad luck was on my side that tournament than the first PTQ. Anyway, I'm back. I mean, before I know it, Grand Prix Kansas City will be around the corner!
Anyway,
My city has been running a Magic circuit the last 5 weeks. This week is the last week.
There's 6 shops participating. What happens is that the winner of the tournament (swiss rounds and then Top cut-off) will get an invite to a 32-person championship in mid-March. If the winner of that tournament has already qualified, it passes down to the next person who isn't qualified. It's been plenty fun. Even with so many people qualified at this point, these tournaments are still really competitive, where 5 of the top 8 (usually after 5 rounds) are still unqualified players still gutting it out.
The top 32 players then duke it out at a invite-only city championship:
3 rounds of Standard
3 rounds of Draft
3 rounds of Modern
Anyway, I've had such bad luck. I have a terrible job as a nightshift stocker, thus my Magic is usually limited to 1-2 nights a week at most. So I consider myself pretty lucky if I play 2 a week. However, I'm nowhere near a flawless player, and am prone to mistake. I've managed to play in (about) 8 tournaments. I've manage to hit top 8 four of the time...
first time: I hit top 8. I'm playing against Esper Control, I'm up a game and conceed as I have to rush to work in 15 minutes.
second time: I take a double mulligan game 3 and punt to my best match-up.
third time: I get the nerves as over 16 people watch me closely and punt an important play, once again to my best match-up and good friend. I asked him if I could get the win as he's also qualified, but we're also playing for a lot of packs at this point.
4th time: worst possible scenaro happens to me game 3 when a Rest In Peace hits the board around turn 5 (when I have a lot of investment in it). I can't do anything against it and have to play my creatures/hand as is... and continue to hit dead cards/lands, not finding an answer to RIP. Once again to a favorable match-up; what luck!
Anyway, despite all my bad luck in the top 8, I'm a high-ranked player in the overall Standings. The results haven't been posted from last night's tournament or tonight's, but out of 168 people I'm currently ranked 15th. I'm the 2nd highest unqualified player.
This is crucial, as even though the next 2 tournaments I can't fully participate in, I'm still considered a "stand-in" for the City Championship. Between 1-3 players have vocally said either they can't make it for one reason or another (out-of-town, job, etc.) So for those who don't show up, the highest ranked players can assume their place in the city championship.
Did I also mention for the City Championship:
1st place = $500
2nd place = $250
3rd place = $100
4th place = $100
and more cards/small cash/prizes/store credit for lower ranks.
I'm currently considered a stand-in. While I love this, I hate that I couldn't prove myself as a player to qualify. I kept punting important top 8 matches, which 3 of them were to players who had already qualified and were too greedy to pass up 8-prize packs.
So, long story short... I got 3 rounds of Modern I need to hopefully try and ace on Sunday. I feel extremely confident in Standard, as I've been grinding THE HELL out of that format the last 2 months.
Modern use to be my best format, but now I'm just like... crap. Living End hasn't been doing so hot for me the last tournaments, my best night going 3-2.
Draft I'm not too concerned about. A lot of the qualified players are drafters, so I'll be happy if I even manage to go 1-2 or 1-1-1 in that section. Going 2-1 or 3-0 would be a divine intervention.
What do y'all think is the best version of Living End right now? I expect a lot of control/midrange in the room, which makes me think I should try a variant of the list that top 8 the Kansas PTQ a few weeks back. I hate Architect of Will so much, but I can definitely see how his version is posed to beat slower match-ups (although it has a weaker case against Affinity and other aggro, which is our best match-ups).
Y'all have seen my versions. I played pretty much the same 75 for a long time, and then the last PTQ I decided to try Avalanche Riders in the main 60. Still not sure if I like it or not in the main... it's only sweet if you hit 2 or hit that and a Fullminator Mage back-to-back on turns 3-4, then Cascade into Living End.
I may just copy the Kansas PTQ's exact 75 except clean up his land-situation. Only bad thing about that deck.
I know a Tron or two player will be in the room as well, gotta keep that in mind... But I expect a lot of UWR midrange, quite a few Jund players as well. Don't really expect any Birthing Pod.
I'd really like to do well at this tournament. I consider it more important than the PTQ's I've been playing, as besides local/state pride and boost my ego a bit, the money could really help a paycheck-to-paycheck retail worker like me. I'm in bad straits and winning money from playing a game I love would be great. It's completely different compared to driving far for a Grand Prix, as I know all the players in the room on a pretty well level and know pretty damn well what they'll be playing and how to deal with a lot of scenarios and tricks. I know the meta for once, huzzah. This means a lot to me. Since I've been away from Living End for a bit, any new updates and help would be appreciated as I haven't kept up with the Modern PTQ season the last ~month.
Here are some probability curves to show what your actual chances of drawing a cascade spell are. By 7 draws into your deck after the starting hand you'll have run into 1 of 8 cascade spells in a 60 card deck between 90% and 97% of the time depending on your mulligans
7 draws - with cycling I think we usually draw +1 card per turn on t1/2 and we want to see the spell on t4 so that's actually a near certainty to see one by the time we need it.
T1 thoughtseize/IoK can throw a wrench into it, but when you're starting at near 100% probability it shouldn't be that bad; I guess I've just had some monstrously bad luck when I've cycled into oblivion.
I really like this person's list - simple and elegant. Appears to be tailored to an unknown metagame - we don't see the sideboard leaning more heavily on certain matchups. The lack of Faerie Macabre is a little surprising (looks like s/he went with a full boat of Jungle Weaver instead), but other than that, it's exactly the cards you think of when you think "Living End."
R1 - 2-1 Jund
R2 - 2-0 WB tokens
R3 - 0-2 Robots
R4 - 2-1 Kiki pod
R5 - ID into top 4
Semifinal - 1-2 America Control
Highlight: Used demonic dread to seal the win twice, both times against pod. The second time was in the final extra turn for exacties.
In G1 against RUW Control I played a jungle weaver with only six mana available. I noticed the next turn and informed the judge, who issued me a game rule violation(my first). He said we couldn't back it up because a turn had already gone by. I ended up winning because of it. After I lost G2 I conceded.
Just got back from GP San Diego playing Living End, failed to make day 2 with a record of 5-3-1, but I liked the deck a lot, and was wondering how in the hell does this deck beat an Arcbound Ravager? In the games that I played against affinity I could not beat them for the life of me.
Faerie Macabre for the 2 flex slots in the maindeck. Some mix of Gnaw to the Bone and Ricochet Trap in the remaining sideboard slots.
I came in with a pretty standard version, choosing to run 2 Avalanche Riders and 3 Faeries mainboard. The riders were maybe a bit slow against a few of my matchups, but the faeries always did work. I'd post the decklist, but I'm not sure how.
Match 1: RedXWins
Game 1 I probably shocked myself a little too hard with wraiths and lands looking for my combo, and I'm not sure if I timed my fulminators right to get maximum usage out of them. I think I may have let him cast cards that he wouldn't have been able to, because I was looking to block goblin guide (I think it was guide) and get a land. Too greedy, I think. I got him to 12 before I died.
Game 2 I played a little bit more conservatively, and I did better. I sided in 3 Brindle Boars, none of which I saw at all throughout the whole dang day much less this game. The only really relevant play I think I did, besides just fetching basics to conserve life, is nabbing a Vexing Devil with a Faerie during a cascade.
I got him to 4 before Rakdos Charm made me kill myself.
0-1
Match 2: Bant
Game 1 (which was actually 2 because I took a stupid game loss for forgetting to cross out a card on my deck reg) I ended up having to Living End all three times (why exactly I forget, I think it was because of counters). Nothing too atrocious here, I ended up using Faerie to chump against a Geist angel token. Not being able to deal with Geist via Beast Within is what prompted the 3rd Cascade, I know that for sure. But I won with 5 life.
Game 2, Avalanche Riders blew up his lands. And blew up his lands some more. And then blew up his lands again. I lost one life from a fetch all game.
1-1
Round 3: RedXWins (Again)
Game 1 I had crappy hands and mulled down to 5. Nothing exciting here, as I basically just lost.
Game 2 I was stabilizing off an end and had enough power to kill on board, but got killed by Boros Charm at 4 life. Again, didn't see a single Brindle Boar. Also, the opponent actually did not play a single creature this game, and so Leyline of Sanctity would've turned off every single play he made. Something to consider when I have an extra $40 lying around.
1-2
Round 4: BUG
This deck started out pretty easy to play against in Game 1. I may have played around one counter, but my opponent basically scooped after I resolved an end.
He then proceeded to board in about 12 cards.
Game 2 was super drawn out and one of the most intense games of Magic I've played. He had discard early and took a beast within. I resolved an end only to walk into damnation. Once I resolved an outburst into end, he surgically extracted it (this works into how I eventually lost game 3). Dryad Arbor, of all things, looked like it might win the game until he finally topdecked a Deathrite. I had him at 2, but then couldn't get past Deathrite (where was wolf run!? buried somewhere in my deck). He slowly pinged me to death and when I tried to resolve a Jungle Weaver he remanded it, buying him time to win.
The only real mistake I may have made in this game is cycling a Minotaur because I thought I might have to end again/figured he had removal/a counter anyways. I then proceeded to go into man mode later. Drawing out a counter might've let me win with the weaver.
Game 3 was just ugly. I drew a Living End and, for some stupid reason, kept the hand. He made me discard it and then surgically extracted it. GG
1-3
Round 5: BUG Infect
This matchup went way easier than I thought it would, but I recognize that I got lucky in both games. First game my opponent mulled to 4 and dealt 8 infect to me before I ended with 20 power on board (I cycled a whole bunch of street wraiths).
Second game was a little bit more of a match. The Faeries did a ton of work here, grabbing Rancors in response to their trigger so they couldn't come back. Considering I ended the game at 7 infect, that's a big deal. I also had to beast within an inkmonth nexus. I didn't have as many creatures in the yard, so the kill was slower.
Getting to three lands on turn three seems to be of the utmost importance. I didn't have Dismembers in my side, choosing instead to play Sudden Death (I didn't see a pod or splinter twin match all day to use them with), so my best outs were Beast Within and just blowing dudes up with a three mana wrath.
2-3
Round 6: American Delver
Neither of these games went well for me. He ALWAYS had counters and was never tapped out so he could always play them. This is probably the only match I played where I'm not sure how I would've won it at all. I blew up lands, but that wasn't enough. I even tried to end into end. This match may have sold me on putting Ricochet Trap in the board...
I'm not sure if I sided the sudden deaths in for this matchup, but I probably should've if I didn't. Just buying turns by killing Delvers would've been nice.
2-4
Round 7: Blue-Black Affinity
Honestly, this was a good deck with a homebrew combo thrown into it, so I'm glad I won this match. I lost the first game, but then sided in Ingot Chewers and Damping Matrices to blow up artifacts and shut down plating. The last game I didn't even get any guys off of my first Living End, but I blew up four of his and that was enough.
Games 2 and 3 weren't even close.
3-4
Round 8: Robots Affinity
I again lost game one and then sided in my artifact hate. He had asked me if I had Stony Silence before the match started, and I answered with "Sort of". When he saw Damping in game 2, he knew what I meant.
I won Game 2 at ten life and feeling pretty decent, but I proceeded to just play awfully in game 3. Wolf Run left me with awkward mana for outburts, and putting my ends at sorcery speed with Dread wasn't good enough. An Ethersworn Canonist shut me down for a turn, but beast withining it actually gave me a legal target for Demonic Dread, as the only other creature out at the time was the "Protection from all colors" guy.
But using the beast on ethersworn meant I didn't use it on plating, and that thing bashed my head in again. I could've done a second living end if I wasn't stupid and had landcycled like I meant to. I don't really even count this game as a loss, as I should have won if I'd grabbed lands right. So the lesson I learned is be sure you have a separate source for all your colors, as having a Copperline Gorge isn't the same as having both a red and green source.
Overall thoughts:
I liked Avalanche Riders against slower decks, but against a lot of faster decks like RedX and Affinity and especially the American Delver with its plethora of super cheap counters it might be better to just be another cycler and/or land. I'm going to experiment with moving my two copies to the side and seeing what happens next time I play. I do like being able to hit Inkmoths and having him for longer games, but he made a couple hands awkward against the fast guys.
Possible inclusions include 2 copies of Architects of Will or another Jungle Weaver and a Raging Ravine. Ravine might help in situations like Round 4 where my board stalled just because I had no creatures out.
I would always keep at least 2 Faeries main. They helped me out in so many games, whether grabbing Rancors or the opponent's guys so they couldn't come back from Living Ends. I had 3 main and I'm not sure if that's one too many, but I would never go below 2.
For my sideboard, I think I want to get the 4th boar in and I'm considering moving to Leyline next time I have money to drop. It would've won me game 2 of both RedX matches if I'd drawn it and gotten even just 4 life. I also didn't use my 4 Sudden Deaths that much and may change them out for 3 Ricochet Traps and a floating card. I'm also keeping in mind though that I didn't play against the decks Sudden death is decent against. I also might cut one ingot chewer and try to sneak a couple Krosan Grips in, because I forgot Torpor Orb is a thing.
Then I just cascaded into End on Turn 3 anyways and we proceeded to read the card together. He was unhappy.
I went 2-1 tonight taking 4th out of 8 players.
Game 1: 2-0 vs RDW. Maindeck gnaw stole game 1, gaining me 14 life between cast and flashback. I still won at 2 life, and had to 1-shot him with an alpha strike of 5 guys plus violent outburst.
Game 2: 0-2 vs RDW. This was embarrassing as the guy was playing a standard RDW deck... game one I mull to 6 and see a poor hand with no cyclers but 2 lands and the 1 maindeck gnaw. I get 10 life off the gnaw but I have to beast within lands to stall and just die with him at 20. Game 2 I put something like 5 cyclers in the yard, played and chumped with a macabre on t3... and proceeded to see 8 lands and ZERO cascade spells... more on this later.
Game 3: 2-0 vs UW. He played blade splicer, path, mana leak, and serra avenger... not sure that this is a deck. Game 1 he tapped out I cascaded and won. Game 2 saw t2 meddling mage on living end which I eventually took out with beast within and then cascaded. It was very close as I had to wait for an opening to beast within, and he had serra avenger with sword of feast and famine out. I swung once the whole game, for lethal.
Here are my thoughts on the deck right now:
1. This deck has consistency issues that it doesn't look like it should have. I'm seeing too many games where I cycle and cycle and never hit a cascade spell, and games where I get opening hands with no cyclers, and games where I draw a bunch of fulminators against a bunch of basic lands. Games where I draw 2 of my living ends into my hand. Games where I flood and only draw pale recluce. Games where I kill myself on shocklands.
2. Dryad arbor stinks. This deck does not want killable summoning sick lands early on, nor does it want lands that die to its primary spell. Even trading with a stormkirk noble on turn 1 was a fail because I couldn't cascade for an extra turn.
3. Faerie macabre is basically always good. I left one in MD and was grateful everytime I drew it.
4. Simian spirit guide looks decent, but I don't know if I want 3. I will probably chop this down to 2 and see how it goes. I like making other decks respect the possibility of him, and he's very good with riccochet trap (force of will anyone?) but he's a real lousy topdeck.
5. One gnaw to the bone maindeck seems good. You don't want to draw 2 ever, but this is a huge difference vs any aggressive deck when you draw it, and it just generally helps take the edge off of shocks and street wraiths in any non-combo based game.
I'd like to offer some opinions on a few of your points:
First of all, anyone who goes so far as to say Dryad Arbor "stinks" probably isn't playing her correctly. The whole idea behind her is to enable Demonic Dread more consistently. Unless you were unfortunate enough to draw it in the first three or four turns, you'll just be snatching it up with Pale Recluse to setup Dread on your next turn (which your opponent can't interrupt anyways because Arbor isn't a spell and they don't gain priority until you try to do something else), or, ideally, fetching her EOT with Verdant Catacombs, which makes the summoning sickness a moot point.
Without her or Forbidden Orchard to produce a target, you have an even lower chance of getting the cascade spell you need to win. And then your deck really DOES have a consistency issue.
Speaking of which, a few of your complaints about the deck's consistency are misguided. For one, "killing yourself with shocklands" is a sign that you need to treat your life as a more precious resource, since there are only a few matchups where playing a shock tapped or untapped makes a difference so early in the game. Drawing Fulminators against basic lands is just dumb luck, and if it's happening frequently, also a sign of an underdeveloped meta. You're already aware that drawing Living Ends is an acknowledged risk associated with this particular combo. We can't just jam in See Beyond or something similar to smooth things out - we have to suck it up and deal with it.
Everything else you mentioned is just variance, and can happen to any deck at any time. Floods happen; screws happen. We're Magic players, and we deal. If you think it's a legitimate issue, cut/add cards to put the ratios where you think they should be and post some results. You may very well be on to something!
One more thing: I think it's great that the last couple posters have had success with Gnaw to the Bone in the maindeck, but I still can't justify playing a straight lifegain card in my 60. It just feels REALLY bad.
If my opponent has 0 creatures out, why am I in such a rush to cascade? I don't think 've actually never seen a situation where I couldn't use dread because the board was empty. I know thats one application of arbor, but I thought it was also to provide emergency blocker vs aggro decks. If the use of the card is really that, then it makes sense I'd dislike the card because I've never had lack of dread target be a problem.
This is certainly true, but in addition to flood and screw, this deck seems to have a real risk of not drawing enough/any cascade and not drawing enough/any cyclers. I'm not sure the exact threshold but usually I think I want atleast 3 creatures in the yard to make the cascade a threat, while sometimes I need to cascade t3 to stem the tide of deathrite shamans, dark confidants, delvers, etc. So sometimes its just that my only cycler was a jungle weaver and I don't have time to play fulminator out, I have to wrath now or take an extra 8 dmg, or I can't let them untap in case of remand. So I trade their 2-3 guys and bring out weaver, it gets pathed, and now it gets awkward.
I feel like the awkwardly bad hands should happen relatively rarely. When I was testing on cockatrice I almost never saw this happen. Since sleeving it up for events I've played like 25 games or so, and seen this happen like 5 or 6 times. A 20% chance of just crapping out with poor draws seems absurdly high for a deck that doesnt insta-win with a given combo.
GW Bogle is a deck, and it uses all hexproof creatures. Storm wins with a grapeshot and doesn't need a creature on the board to win. Neither does Eggs. Affinity might only have an Etched Champion that you can't target. Tron will kill you with Karn or drop Emrakul (who can't be targetted by Dread). Twin often won't play a creature until EOT - and then its too late to stop the combo.
tl;dr - You often need a creature so you have a Dread target, and Dryad Arbor is fetchable and totally worth its inclusion as a 1-of.
This is the list I'm looking at for now. Any advice would be greatly appreciated:
4 Monstrous Carabid
4 Street Wraith
3 Jungle Weaver
3 Pale Recluse
4 Fulminator Mage
3 Faerie Macabre
4 Demonic Dread
3 Living End
4 Beast Within
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Copperline Gorge
1 Forest
2 Swamp
1 Blood Crypt
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Raging Ravine
Like I said, I had two Avalanche Riders main, but I think they're too slow and so moved them to the board, replacing them with another Weaver and Raging Ravine for now. Would I be better suited making them into two Architects of Will? I definitely want to have more cyclers than I had. Also, is 4 Beast Within the absolute right number? Sometimes I had multiples when I just wanted to cycle, but when I really needed it I was glad to see it.
For sideboard, I'm thinking about this:
2 Ingot Chewer
2 Damping Matrix
2 Krosan Grip
2 Avalanche Riders
4 Brindle Boar
I really liked how Ingot Chewer and Damping Matrix did out of the board, but I cut one of each for Krosan Grip because I figure I could use a little extra enchant hate and possibly something unexpected to blow up artifacts that doesn't die to Torpor Orb and drawing two Matrixes isn't great most games. My main substitution from the last tourney is taking out 4 Sudden Death for 3 Ricochet Trap and an extra Brindle Boar, because I really wanted to see that guy in both RedX matchups.
I'll add to this--you need to clock Scapeshift or it will dome you with its 7+ lands from a Scapeshift. Don't count on them getting out a Tiago or a Sakura-Tribe Elder (usually only 6 cards in total).
(At least it's slightly easier to try to hit one of Burn's creatures. Hellspark Elemental can't be hit by Demonic Dread, though, and it may not be worth losing 8 points of life total to let Vexing Devil stick.)
Post your list. Maybe the solution for you is to just jam more cyclers in there, but I could be of more help if I knew exactly what you were playing.
My math is shown below.
Chance to not draw a cascade spell in 1 card draw:
CND=(52-draws)/(60-draws)
Chance to not draw a cascade spell in a series of card draws:
SCND=CND1*CND2*CND3....
Each chance to not draw is slightly different based upon how many draws you've had.
Chance to draw a cascade spell in a series of card draws:
1-SCND
Mulligans take into account that you've already seen your previous hand's cards and are proceeding to see a new hand before drawing new cards.
This is pretty basic, but is meant to show that you should not be missing your combo piece that often.
Then again, hard to know if you're going to be able to go off or not if you're not playing against anything. Just wanted to point out the consistency that I'm getting with the deck. And a 1%/2% chance to never be able to go off is perfectly fine with me for consistency. Oh, and I've never really dislike Arbor. I just never understood how to play it before until I realised 'Oh, I shouldn't be playing this early'. Unless of course it's like a turn one Catacombs in to an Arbor. Cause that's fine.
I still really like the deck and feel like I'm learning a lot from just you guys discussing it. I can't wait until next Monday. I think I finally have a place to go test it out.
I got pretty disheartened after the 2nd PTQ and all the testing I put into it. A lot more bad luck was on my side that tournament than the first PTQ. Anyway, I'm back. I mean, before I know it, Grand Prix Kansas City will be around the corner!
Anyway,
There's 6 shops participating. What happens is that the winner of the tournament (swiss rounds and then Top cut-off) will get an invite to a 32-person championship in mid-March. If the winner of that tournament has already qualified, it passes down to the next person who isn't qualified. It's been plenty fun. Even with so many people qualified at this point, these tournaments are still really competitive, where 5 of the top 8 (usually after 5 rounds) are still unqualified players still gutting it out.
The top 32 players then duke it out at a invite-only city championship:
3 rounds of Standard
3 rounds of Draft
3 rounds of Modern
Anyway, I've had such bad luck. I have a terrible job as a nightshift stocker, thus my Magic is usually limited to 1-2 nights a week at most. So I consider myself pretty lucky if I play 2 a week. However, I'm nowhere near a flawless player, and am prone to mistake. I've managed to play in (about) 8 tournaments. I've manage to hit top 8 four of the time...
first time: I hit top 8. I'm playing against Esper Control, I'm up a game and conceed as I have to rush to work in 15 minutes.
second time: I take a double mulligan game 3 and punt to my best match-up.
third time: I get the nerves as over 16 people watch me closely and punt an important play, once again to my best match-up and good friend. I asked him if I could get the win as he's also qualified, but we're also playing for a lot of packs at this point.
4th time: worst possible scenaro happens to me game 3 when a Rest In Peace hits the board around turn 5 (when I have a lot of investment in it). I can't do anything against it and have to play my creatures/hand as is... and continue to hit dead cards/lands, not finding an answer to RIP. Once again to a favorable match-up; what luck!
Anyway, despite all my bad luck in the top 8, I'm a high-ranked player in the overall Standings. The results haven't been posted from last night's tournament or tonight's, but out of 168 people I'm currently ranked 15th. I'm the 2nd highest unqualified player.
This is crucial, as even though the next 2 tournaments I can't fully participate in, I'm still considered a "stand-in" for the City Championship. Between 1-3 players have vocally said either they can't make it for one reason or another (out-of-town, job, etc.) So for those who don't show up, the highest ranked players can assume their place in the city championship.
Did I also mention for the City Championship:
1st place = $500
2nd place = $250
3rd place = $100
4th place = $100
and more cards/small cash/prizes/store credit for lower ranks.
I'm currently considered a stand-in. While I love this, I hate that I couldn't prove myself as a player to qualify. I kept punting important top 8 matches, which 3 of them were to players who had already qualified and were too greedy to pass up 8-prize packs.
So, long story short... I got 3 rounds of Modern I need to hopefully try and ace on Sunday. I feel extremely confident in Standard, as I've been grinding THE HELL out of that format the last 2 months.
Modern use to be my best format, but now I'm just like... crap. Living End hasn't been doing so hot for me the last tournaments, my best night going 3-2.
Draft I'm not too concerned about. A lot of the qualified players are drafters, so I'll be happy if I even manage to go 1-2 or 1-1-1 in that section. Going 2-1 or 3-0 would be a divine intervention.
What do y'all think is the best version of Living End right now? I expect a lot of control/midrange in the room, which makes me think I should try a variant of the list that top 8 the Kansas PTQ a few weeks back. I hate Architect of Will so much, but I can definitely see how his version is posed to beat slower match-ups (although it has a weaker case against Affinity and other aggro, which is our best match-ups).
Y'all have seen my versions. I played pretty much the same 75 for a long time, and then the last PTQ I decided to try Avalanche Riders in the main 60. Still not sure if I like it or not in the main... it's only sweet if you hit 2 or hit that and a Fullminator Mage back-to-back on turns 3-4, then Cascade into Living End.
I may just copy the Kansas PTQ's exact 75 except clean up his land-situation. Only bad thing about that deck.
I know a Tron or two player will be in the room as well, gotta keep that in mind... But I expect a lot of UWR midrange, quite a few Jund players as well. Don't really expect any Birthing Pod.
I'd really like to do well at this tournament. I consider it more important than the PTQ's I've been playing, as besides local/state pride and boost my ego a bit, the money could really help a paycheck-to-paycheck retail worker like me. I'm in bad straits and winning money from playing a game I love would be great. It's completely different compared to driving far for a Grand Prix, as I know all the players in the room on a pretty well level and know pretty damn well what they'll be playing and how to deal with a lot of scenarios and tricks. I know the meta for once, huzzah. This means a lot to me. Since I've been away from Living End for a bit, any new updates and help would be appreciated as I haven't kept up with the Modern PTQ season the last ~month.
ex-Moderator
Legacy love.
7 draws - with cycling I think we usually draw +1 card per turn on t1/2 and we want to see the spell on t4 so that's actually a near certainty to see one by the time we need it.
T1 thoughtseize/IoK can throw a wrench into it, but when you're starting at near 100% probability it shouldn't be that bad; I guess I've just had some monstrously bad luck when I've cycled into oblivion.
1 Blood Crypt
4 Copperline Gorge
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Mountain
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Deadshot Minotaur
4 Fulminator Mage
4 Jungle Weaver
4 Monstrous Carabid
3 Pale Recluse
4 Street Wraith
4 Beast Within
4 Demonic Dread
3 Living End
4 Violent Outburst
2 Avalanche Riders
3 Ingot Chewer
2 Jund Charm
2 Kitchen Finks
2 Krosan Grip
2 Shriekmaw
2 Slaughter Games
I really like this person's list - simple and elegant. Appears to be tailored to an unknown metagame - we don't see the sideboard leaning more heavily on certain matchups. The lack of Faerie Macabre is a little surprising (looks like s/he went with a full boat of Jungle Weaver instead), but other than that, it's exactly the cards you think of when you think "Living End."
1 Blood Crypt
3 Copperline Gorge
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forbidden Orchard
1 Forest
1 Godless Shrine
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Swamp
1 Temple Garden
3 Verdant Catacombs
4 Beast Within
4 Violent Outburst
4 Deadshot Minotaur
2 Faerie Macabre
4 Fulminator Mage
2 Ingot Chewer
3 Jungle Weaver
4 Monstrous Carabid
4 Pale Recluse
1 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Street Wraith
4 Demonic Dread
3 Living End
R1 - 2-1 Jund
R2 - 2-0 WB tokens
R3 - 0-2 Robots
R4 - 2-1 Kiki pod
R5 - ID into top 4
Semifinal - 1-2 America Control
Highlight: Used demonic dread to seal the win twice, both times against pod. The second time was in the final extra turn for exacties.
In G1 against RUW Control I played a jungle weaver with only six mana available. I noticed the next turn and informed the judge, who issued me a game rule violation(my first). He said we couldn't back it up because a turn had already gone by. I ended up winning because of it. After I lost G2 I conceded.
Ingot Chewer or Beast Within to take out ravager, then Jund Charm their GY away before you cascade?
Just don't try to cascade if they have a ravager in play.