I'm also tempted by Rending Volley, but Combust works against Siege Rhino. In what other situations is Combust good where Rending Volley isn't enough, and vice versa?
You don't want to side in Combust vs Rhino. There is a discussion a few pages back about this.
Arkaedrian: sorry man not following, my deck has 4 skullcrack and 2 command, you want that decklist or how i would play my decklist with 4 commands?
Yes give me the decklist. Im trying to gather info in order to decide what ill cut out for my Commands. Im still not sure if Lavamancer is worth it. 95% of the time he doesnt see play and when he does, the game is usually already won for me.
Arkaedrian: sorry man not following, my deck has 4 skullcrack and 2 command, you want that decklist or how i would play my decklist with 4 commands?
Yes give me the decklist. Im trying to gather info in order to decide what ill cut out for my Commands. Im still not sure if Lavamancer is worth it. 95% of the time he doesnt see play and when he does, the game is usually already won for me.
this is my decklist, is somewhat more close to RDW than your typical RWg decklist, but have proven results ( like 3 4-0 and a lot of 3-1, since the ban of pod/delve draw)
I know there's a rule against budget discussion, but I just want to be dissuaded on this:
How do you feel about Windswept Heaths in place of the Arid Mesas? Would I be better off just running Mountains here? I'm splashing a bit more green for Atarka's Command, if that matters at all.
I think you could get away with 1 or 2.
Do you think I should cut a Lavamancer or both then?
Nevel0, as you know I prefer the black version of the deck, is there anything I can sideboard against the mirror beside Dragon's Claw? I was thinking Rain of Gore against their heals, but I am not sure if that the right choice, it feels too slow. Rain is also going to be useless once Command is out, but is there anything that's good to sideboard with green? besides DR? Anything at all that can gain me life? If not I think I may just play the white version of the deck. My meta isn't full of burn players, that why I have been using the black variety against all those combo and control players, but it seems that burn is becoming a bigger deck in my meta.
Dragon Claw is the best for a non-white sideboard card for the mirror. Rain of Gore is more effective at hosing the lifegain cards, however you still end up with the issues of it being a card only good when your opponent has drawn their sideboard card (which is a problem with any purely reactive card). So similar likelihoods pan out as per my previous comments on Leyline. Rain is slightly better in that it doesn't get hit by Smash to Smithereens, and isn't as crucial to have in your opener. But I still think a proactive card like Dragon Claw is better, as it works whether or not your opponent is even doing anything.
In Jund, there isn't a lot of other options. Scavenging Ooze is slow and conditional and requires a lot of Green mana. Feed the Clan will only ever be 5 health, and it's probably just better to have a burn spell in that spot. Only thing close to playable I can find (e.g. 1-2 mana, gains life, does damage, and is non-conditional) is Darkheart Sliver, but that requires two of your splash colors to cast, and really isn't all that effective. Other options are generally 3+ mana and are not super effective quickly, which is what you'd need that far into the game.
@Second_Sunrise: List looks good. Very similar to my build after release. Ive opted to cut Skullcrack completely. You could shave that for an extra Grim. Also, I'd cut your mountain count to 2 for 2x Mana Confluence (or just more fetches/shocks). I've found that basic land starter hands have been pretty awkward unless I have 2 other lands. To me, relying on a burn deck having 3 lands in the starter for our mana to work seems like a bad place to be.
Concerning Firewalker, playing it believing it. Dragon Claw gets shot down by Smashes and Revelries and that can be pretty bad. As many have pointed out, having a Kor in your starter vs the mirror allows you to play a more patient game, as once it's deployed its hard for them to win without an answer. It isn't out of the question to not play anything turn 1 so you can fetch a tapped white source. The second source shock damage generally pays for itself within a turn.
@Dekonic: I'm not sure if anyone has given feedback on your list so I'll give you a couple suggestions. I think your curve is getting a little clunky with the number of 2-drops. If you wanted to lower your curve a little, I'd cut come number of Skullcrack and perhaps 1x helix for 1-2 Grim Lavamancer and 1-2 Shard Volley. We want to be able to be as efficient as possible with our mana, so the extra 1mana spells/abilities allow us to goldfish a more consistent 20 damage. If you do not want to lower the curve much, I think you'll definitly want 20x land, as getting your land drops is a lot more important with the increased 2cmc spells. I'd probably also want cut 2-3 of your basics for more fetches. As mentioned above to another poster, basics can be very awkward in your starter if you do not have a way to fetch for the second splash color.
Has anyone else notice an uptick in hate recently. I always seem to be a few damage short games 2 and games 3. I am considering running full set of commands main deck and skullcrack in the board. Also sideboarding with this deck is incredibly akward. How are you guys dealing with it. bringing in the relevant cards and they tend to clog my hand up.
This is a tough question. I wonder if anyone has the math tools to figure out the statistical difference here with respect to how long each strategy would take, on average, to cast 7 spells from the deck (which we will assume all connect for the exercise). Anyone want to have some fun with math? A level of math I don't wield with confidence
Ok, I'm not great with this stuff, but these types of problems are fun so I figured I'd give it a go. I apologise in advance for the long post. I've even had to leave out most of the raw data, as it is pretty tedious to show it all here. Note: I've also had to ignore the issue of mulligans given the constraints of time. I think the model I used is a fairly good overview or approximation of averages over many games.
Synopsis:
What I've found is that "Peak Turn" for Modern Burn appears to be turn 5. This doesn't mean when we Goldfish 20, but rather where averages of cumulative mana production based on land drop probability, average spells drawn, and average spell costs all converge. In other words, this is where we are the most likely to have produced enough mana over the course of the game to cast every spell we've drawn up to that point (the implication here is that we should build with a Turn 5 game in mind, as we will likely be top decking after that point).
Regarding 19v20 lands, in the stock deck compositions I used, it did not significantly change the turn one way or another, regardless of play/draw, RWx/RBx. While the average differences mana production of 19v20 lands was significant on turn 5 (about 1 mana more), this was not consequential relative to the average total cost required for spells drawn by that turn. Basically both decks should both draw and be able to cast 7-8 spells by turn 5. So while we might goldfish 20 damage before that, turn 5 is the sweet spot for casting all our spells drawn (which also happens to be the point in which we are most likely to have drawn 7 spells too). Furthermore, given that the difference in mana production on Turn 4 vs Turn 5 is very significant, it's pretty clear cut.
Where it has the most significant effect was with decks at a higher curve. For example, with the 19-land RWx stock deck on the play, the average mana production by turn 5 was about 0.316 mana short to cast all their spells. On the flip side, a 20-land lower curve RBx stock deck on the draw had 1.1 excess mana by turn 5 to cast all of their spells. Therefore, suitability of 19v20 land is very much dependant precise spell composition, but will likely only be relevant over the course of hundreds of games.
More in depth:
Basically there are 3 main factors at play: Mana Production, Spell Ratio, and Average Costs.
These figures change a bit based on total land count, play or draw, and spell composition, so I had to run the numbers for various combinations.
Mana Production: I first estimated how likely we are to hit our land drops each turn. Then I've used those probabilities to estimate average cumulative mana production achieved by that turn (or total mana produced by that turn).
Spell Ratio: This is pretty simple, as its merely the ratio of land to non-land spells in our deck applied to the total number of cards we would have drawn on that turn.
Average Costs: This is much more deck specific. I've factored out the ratio of 1cmc spells as well as the ratio of 2 cmc spells and applied that to total cards drawn, then multiplied that out into total mana requirements. I did this for both stock RBx and RWx decks.
Once the above has been done, it's fairly simple to see where mana converges with spell count and mana requirements. Basically, by turn 5, the burn deck should on average have drawn 7-8 spells depending on your land ratio and play/draw. The higher end is the 19 land deck on the draw, which on average will have drawn 8.0 spells by that turn. The low end is the 20 land deck on the play, which on average will have drawn 7.33 spells. This neatly coincides with optimal mana production to spell cost requirements. Mana production with 19 lands on the play is on average 10.684 mana by turn 5. With 20 lands on the draw, that figure is 11.995. Compare that to the average costs of all spells drawn by turn 5, it is 10.266/11 (RBx/RWx), and 10.8/11.6 respectively.
Out of interest I also ran damage numbers to compare relative damage output between the two builds. Creatures are difficult to account for in a basic model, and it is very hard to factor them out. What I did was isolate the spells by working out average damage per mana spent, and weighting creatures spells at 0 damage. I'll note that I used the bottleneck figure to determine average damage per turn, using average damage per card as a limiter. So either we deal as much damage as we have mana (turn 1-4) or deal as much damage as we could on average with the cards drawn (turn 5+). What I found was that RBx decks were generally about 1 damage faster per mana spent by turn 4. This makes sense, given Bump is more efficient than Charm, and it comfirmed the idea that RBx should have a slight edge vs combo due to their faster clock.
For reference, I'll break down the CMC numbers I used for each stock deck. I factored both RBx and RWx would have 14 creatures (Usual suspects + 2x Grim Lavamancer). The spells were stock, with the only difference being that the RBx deck had Bump in the Night, and RWx had Boros Charm. The counts were 10x 1cmc creatures, 4x 2cmc creatures, 16x/12x 1cmc spells, and 10x/14x 2-cmc spells. For 19x lands I added 1x 2cmc spell to each deck.
TL;DR
Most modern burn decks should on average be able to cast every spell they've drawn by Turn 5. 19v20 lands is fairly dependant on exact deck composition, but with a stock deck, it is largely a personal preference. You are very slightly more likely to be screwed on the play with stock 19 land RWx, and flooded on the draw with stock 20 land RBx. Take away is that RBx should usually be on 19 lands, given its slightly lower curve. Also, that Shard Volley is important to get the RWx curve into a sweet spot. Furthermore, that a disciplined curve with 19x lands tends to converge the averages the closest, so EV should theoretically be higher (slightly less chance to have excess mana, e.g. flood).
I prefer 19x as well. I'll go ahead and post the turn 5 mana figure for both play and draw on each land count for reference, since I only mentioned the extremes in original post above.
I'm a longtime burn player but I'm needing a little help fine tuning my list for the 2 modern states tourneys in April.
First question
Do we need molten rains anymore? I know they used to be important against tron and midrange; however, UWR midrange really isn't played much anymore and abzan is a good matchup already if we have our prevent life gain spells. Trons numbers are down too and with skullcrack and command I'm not scared of wurmcoils anymore.
Second question
What is the thought on shard volley? Do we still need those as well? I'm contemplating cutting the 2 from my main for the 2 commands. Is this a good or bad idea?
Oh I'm aware that shard volley is the finishing spell of the deck but how much does it hurt us if we cut them? I like the versatility that the commands brings.
I'm a longtime burn player but I'm needing a little help fine tuning my list for the 2 modern states tourneys in April.
First question
Do we need molten rains anymore? I know they used to be important against tron and midrange; however, UWR midrange really isn't played much anymore and abzan is a good matchup already if we have our prevent life gain spells. Trons numbers are down too and with skullcrack and command I'm not scared of wurmcoils anymore.
Second question
What is the thought on shard volley? Do we still need those as well? I'm contemplating cutting the 2 from my main for the 2 commands. Is this a good or bad idea?
Thanks for your time.
1 Without results in hand, my personal belief is that moltein rain is out of the decklist now, against URW is not even that good (mana leak/remand), and like you said against abzan skullcrack/command do a great job alone, if you play 4 and 4 between Main and SB, i really dont think your decklist need molten rain in SB. Hell even against tron the lifegain is really what matters (wurmcoil/ nature´s claim). The only escenario where molten rain is better is Amulet Combo, and in that escenario blood moon do a better role than molten rain!
2 I think the optimal number of shard volley is one, 2 is too much for my taste, and i perfectly see a deck without shard volley, so go ahead and do it, testing is the better thing to do if you want to test an idea.
Question 1
do you think it would be better to board pyrite spellbomb as oppose to path to exile just for the opponents kor firewalkers and maybe affinity's etched champion, cause if need be pyrite can be used to shoot face too
Question 2
i think i have alot of esper controls in my meta what would you board in against esper control if you are playing, please advise thank you.
Question 3
Scenario : if opponents is at 10 life i am at 18 and he casted a kor firewalker, my hand is down to 3 (1 land and 2 lightning helix) would you continue to shoot face even though u can hit only 2 life, or would you save the burns and wait for a reply to kore firewalker.
Question 4
if opponent cast out birds of paradise on the 1st turn would you spend a lightning bolt to bolt it or would you shoot face?
Question 5
you just started your game and have 3 lavaspikes, 1 eidolon, 2 land, 1 searing blaze. my play would be
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , 2 lava spike
turn 3- eidolon - so as to prevent eating too much from eidolon
or would it be?
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , eidolon
turn 3- 2 lavaspike - so as to deal more dmg to him with his own spells but in the process taking more dmg from your own eidolon
it seems i always do very decently in the first game, and i always lose in the 2nd and 3rd game, would anyone have any advice for me on the techniques of sideboarding? thank you.
any help is really really much appreciated. {frustrated fire mage trying to get better @@}
I like the inclusion of Nacatl if we are going deeper green simply because it makes the pump mode on Atarka's Command even more relevant and Boros Charm's double strike mode also becomes relevant on occasions. Major problem I can see is we are taking a lot of pain from our lands and trying to get WW for Firewalker is dubious. Still, I think this list has potential to be very cool. I'm also running Windswept Heath because I cannot afford any other enemy fetches at the moment.
Question 1
do you think it would be better to board pyrite spellbomb as oppose to path to exile just for the opponents kor firewalkers and maybe affinity's etched champion, cause if need be pyrite can be used to shoot face too
Rain of gore/Murderous Cut/dismember/path to exile/pyrite spellbomb are all answers to firewalker. Though, as you note, pyrite spellbomb hits etched champion as well. It's pretty narrow, but I could see having a single pyrite spellbomb in the board as it is an answer if those two cards were a significant metagame consideration (which I would say they are at present).
Question 2
i think i have alot of esper controls in my meta what would you board in against esper control if you are playing, please advise thank you.
Against control it's important to keep your mana curve low so that they are punished for playing reactive spells by losing a lot of tempo - so make sure not to board in too heavily. A meta with tons of esper control might warrant specific sideboard options like molten rain to punish greedy mana bases. Otherwise just stay low to the ground and keep that skullcrack/command mana up (bluff when you have low opportunity cost) turn 3 and later for timely reinforcements
Question 3
Scenario : if opponents is at 10 life i am at 18 and he casted a kor firewalker, my hand is down to 3 (1 land and 2 lightning helix) would you continue to shoot face even though u can hit only 2 life, or would you save the burns and wait for a reply to kor firewalker.
Stop casting spells until you find an answer. An important caveat here is : Are they playing red spells as well? Sitting on your spells is much more effective when you are the only one playing red spells. If they also play red spells, lean on bluffing and playing skullcrack to make blocking a hard choice with the firewalker, and try to prevent multiple gains of life with a well-timed skullcrack when they start slinging those bolts at you.
Question 4
if opponent cast out birds of paradise on the 1st turn would you spend a lightning bolt to bolt it or would you shoot face?
I think the question here is why you are playing lightning bolt turn 1. The normal turn 1 plays like rift bolt/lava spike/1-drop haster don't allow for killing the bird. I normally let the bird live, unless I read a weak mana hand from the opponent. As a general rule, I don't bolt the bird as it is not consistent with our linear game plan. That being said, here is where reading a player's tells can really break them.
Question 5
you just started your game and have 3 lavaspikes, 1 eidolon, 2 land, 1 searing blaze. my play would be
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , 2 lava spike
turn 3- eidolon - so as to prevent eating too much from eidolon
or would it be?
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , eidolon
turn 3- 2 lavaspike - so as to deal more dmg to him with his own spells but in the process taking more dmg from your own eidolon
Always jam Eidolon early and often, unless the board state allows the opponent to outrace you. In the above, I will always try to jam him turn 2, unless I'm playing around a spell snare.
There are a ton of thoughts in this thread about sideboards. I would suggest that reading a good number of pages backwards will give you a good cross-section of opinions.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Question 1
do you think it would be better to board pyrite spellbomb as oppose to path to exile just for the opponents kor firewalkers and maybe affinity's etched champion, cause if need be pyrite can be used to shoot face too
Question 2
i think i have alot of esper controls in my meta what would you board in against esper control if you are playing, please advise thank you.
Question 3
Scenario : if opponents is at 10 life i am at 18 and he casted a kor firewalker, my hand is down to 3 (1 land and 2 lightning helix) would you continue to shoot face even though u can hit only 2 life, or would you save the burns and wait for a reply to kore firewalker.
Question 4
if opponent cast out birds of paradise on the 1st turn would you spend a lightning bolt to bolt it or would you shoot face?
Question 5
you just started your game and have 3 lavaspikes, 1 eidolon, 2 land, 1 searing blaze. my play would be
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , 2 lava spike
turn 3- eidolon - so as to prevent eating too much from eidolon
or would it be?
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , eidolon
turn 3- 2 lavaspike - so as to deal more dmg to him with his own spells but in the process taking more dmg from your own eidolon
it seems i always do very decently in the first game, and i always lose in the 2nd and 3rd game, would anyone have any advice for me on the techniques of sideboarding? thank you.
any help is really really much appreciated. {frustrated fire mage trying to get better @@}
pretty much agre with wpgstevo, but a couple of things:
3-this depend of a LOT of questions: how many lands he have untapped? he can respond with counters? what deck if he playing? if i tapout i send a wrong signal to my opponent? if the firewalker is in table, wait for an answer, if the firewalker is in the stack, go to the face right now
4-what deck play birds anyway?? i always kill the bird/hierach, unless i have info to let them live ( he is not playing rhino/finks/ expensive leyline), against hatebear for example, i let the bird live, but against little kid abzan, infect an other hierach deck i want the mana dork dead.
5-unless you are playing mirror and are on the draw, always always always eidolon first, you dont care about minimize damage to you, is all about maximize damage to opponent
sideboard advice: dont dilute your game plan, you may want to play different (bluffing that you have skullcrack, etc), but deck wise you dont change your deck a lot, on average i only change like 3 card with sideboard.
practice a lot, the hard part of playing burn and any other easy hate deck (dredge, storm, etc) is exactly post sideboard games.
You don't want to side in Combust vs Rhino. There is a discussion a few pages back about this.
Yes give me the decklist. Im trying to gather info in order to decide what ill cut out for my Commands. Im still not sure if Lavamancer is worth it. 95% of the time he doesnt see play and when he does, the game is usually already won for me.
RWG Burn
GW Abzan Company
this is my decklist, is somewhat more close to RDW than your typical RWg decklist, but have proven results ( like 3 4-0 and a lot of 3-1, since the ban of pod/delve draw)
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/265387#online
to that decklist, make the following changes (Windswept Heath should be another arid mesa).
MD:
add 2 command
out 1 lavamancer 1 flames of the bloodhound
SB:
add 1 command 2 searing blood
out 3 molten rain
Do you think I should cut a Lavamancer or both then?
Dragon Claw is the best for a non-white sideboard card for the mirror. Rain of Gore is more effective at hosing the lifegain cards, however you still end up with the issues of it being a card only good when your opponent has drawn their sideboard card (which is a problem with any purely reactive card). So similar likelihoods pan out as per my previous comments on Leyline. Rain is slightly better in that it doesn't get hit by Smash to Smithereens, and isn't as crucial to have in your opener. But I still think a proactive card like Dragon Claw is better, as it works whether or not your opponent is even doing anything.
In Jund, there isn't a lot of other options. Scavenging Ooze is slow and conditional and requires a lot of Green mana. Feed the Clan will only ever be 5 health, and it's probably just better to have a burn spell in that spot. Only thing close to playable I can find (e.g. 1-2 mana, gains life, does damage, and is non-conditional) is Darkheart Sliver, but that requires two of your splash colors to cast, and really isn't all that effective. Other options are generally 3+ mana and are not super effective quickly, which is what you'd need that far into the game.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Concerning Firewalker, playing it believing it. Dragon Claw gets shot down by Smashes and Revelries and that can be pretty bad. As many have pointed out, having a Kor in your starter vs the mirror allows you to play a more patient game, as once it's deployed its hard for them to win without an answer. It isn't out of the question to not play anything turn 1 so you can fetch a tapped white source. The second source shock damage generally pays for itself within a turn.
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
3 Lightning Helix
3 Boros Charm
1 Grim Lavamancer
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Goblin Guide
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Atarka's Command
2 Shard Volley
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
3 Searing Blaze
3 Sacred Foundry
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Mountain
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Stomping Ground
3 Arid Mesa
2 Mana Confluence
SB: 4 Destructive Revelry
SB: 3 Kor Firewalker
SB: 2 Deflecting Palm
SB: 3 Rending Volley
SB: 3 Molten Rain
Ok, I'm not great with this stuff, but these types of problems are fun so I figured I'd give it a go. I apologise in advance for the long post. I've even had to leave out most of the raw data, as it is pretty tedious to show it all here. Note: I've also had to ignore the issue of mulligans given the constraints of time. I think the model I used is a fairly good overview or approximation of averages over many games.
Synopsis:
What I've found is that "Peak Turn" for Modern Burn appears to be turn 5. This doesn't mean when we Goldfish 20, but rather where averages of cumulative mana production based on land drop probability, average spells drawn, and average spell costs all converge. In other words, this is where we are the most likely to have produced enough mana over the course of the game to cast every spell we've drawn up to that point (the implication here is that we should build with a Turn 5 game in mind, as we will likely be top decking after that point).
Regarding 19v20 lands, in the stock deck compositions I used, it did not significantly change the turn one way or another, regardless of play/draw, RWx/RBx. While the average differences mana production of 19v20 lands was significant on turn 5 (about 1 mana more), this was not consequential relative to the average total cost required for spells drawn by that turn. Basically both decks should both draw and be able to cast 7-8 spells by turn 5. So while we might goldfish 20 damage before that, turn 5 is the sweet spot for casting all our spells drawn (which also happens to be the point in which we are most likely to have drawn 7 spells too). Furthermore, given that the difference in mana production on Turn 4 vs Turn 5 is very significant, it's pretty clear cut.
Where it has the most significant effect was with decks at a higher curve. For example, with the 19-land RWx stock deck on the play, the average mana production by turn 5 was about 0.316 mana short to cast all their spells. On the flip side, a 20-land lower curve RBx stock deck on the draw had 1.1 excess mana by turn 5 to cast all of their spells. Therefore, suitability of 19v20 land is very much dependant precise spell composition, but will likely only be relevant over the course of hundreds of games.
More in depth:
Basically there are 3 main factors at play: Mana Production, Spell Ratio, and Average Costs.
These figures change a bit based on total land count, play or draw, and spell composition, so I had to run the numbers for various combinations.
Out of interest I also ran damage numbers to compare relative damage output between the two builds. Creatures are difficult to account for in a basic model, and it is very hard to factor them out. What I did was isolate the spells by working out average damage per mana spent, and weighting creatures spells at 0 damage. I'll note that I used the bottleneck figure to determine average damage per turn, using average damage per card as a limiter. So either we deal as much damage as we have mana (turn 1-4) or deal as much damage as we could on average with the cards drawn (turn 5+). What I found was that RBx decks were generally about 1 damage faster per mana spent by turn 4. This makes sense, given Bump is more efficient than Charm, and it comfirmed the idea that RBx should have a slight edge vs combo due to their faster clock.
For reference, I'll break down the CMC numbers I used for each stock deck. I factored both RBx and RWx would have 14 creatures (Usual suspects + 2x Grim Lavamancer). The spells were stock, with the only difference being that the RBx deck had Bump in the Night, and RWx had Boros Charm. The counts were 10x 1cmc creatures, 4x 2cmc creatures, 16x/12x 1cmc spells, and 10x/14x 2-cmc spells. For 19x lands I added 1x 2cmc spell to each deck.
TL;DR
Most modern burn decks should on average be able to cast every spell they've drawn by Turn 5. 19v20 lands is fairly dependant on exact deck composition, but with a stock deck, it is largely a personal preference. You are very slightly more likely to be screwed on the play with stock 19 land RWx, and flooded on the draw with stock 20 land RBx. Take away is that RBx should usually be on 19 lands, given its slightly lower curve. Also, that Shard Volley is important to get the RWx curve into a sweet spot. Furthermore, that a disciplined curve with 19x lands tends to converge the averages the closest, so EV should theoretically be higher (slightly less chance to have excess mana, e.g. flood).
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
19x T5 PLAY = 10.684
19x T5 DRAW = 11.543
20x T5 PLAY = 11.125
20x T5 DRAW = 11.955
Modern: R Skred -- WBG Melira Co -- URW Nahiri Control
Legacy: R Mono Red Burn -- UWB Stoneblade
Commander: R Krenko, Mob Boss -- WUBRG Scion of the Ur-Dragon -- WUBRG Maze’s End
Other: R No Rares Red (Standard) -- URC Izzet Tron (Pauper)
4x Boros Charm
4x Lightning Bolt
2x Lightning Helix
3x Searing Blaze
2x Shard Volley
3x Skullcrack
4x Lava Spike
4x Rift Bolt
Land (19)
2x Arid Mesa
4x Bloodstained Mire
3x Mountain
4x Sacred Foundry
2x Stomping Ground
4x Wooded Foothills
4x Eidolon of the Great Revel
4x Goblin Guide
4x Monastery Swiftspear
First question
Do we need molten rains anymore? I know they used to be important against tron and midrange; however, UWR midrange really isn't played much anymore and abzan is a good matchup already if we have our prevent life gain spells. Trons numbers are down too and with skullcrack and command I'm not scared of wurmcoils anymore.
Second question
What is the thought on shard volley? Do we still need those as well? I'm contemplating cutting the 2 from my main for the 2 commands. Is this a good or bad idea?
Thanks for your time.
Duel Commander: Marath, Will of the Wild
Tiny Leaders: Zo-Zu the Punisher
Modern: Burn, liege Rhino, and Zoo
Legacy: Zombardment
Duel Commander: Marath, Will of the Wild
Tiny Leaders: Zo-Zu the Punisher
Modern: Burn, liege Rhino, and Zoo
Legacy: Zombardment
1 Without results in hand, my personal belief is that moltein rain is out of the decklist now, against URW is not even that good (mana leak/remand), and like you said against abzan skullcrack/command do a great job alone, if you play 4 and 4 between Main and SB, i really dont think your decklist need molten rain in SB. Hell even against tron the lifegain is really what matters (wurmcoil/ nature´s claim). The only escenario where molten rain is better is Amulet Combo, and in that escenario blood moon do a better role than molten rain!
2 I think the optimal number of shard volley is one, 2 is too much for my taste, and i perfectly see a deck without shard volley, so go ahead and do it, testing is the better thing to do if you want to test an idea.
Question 1
do you think it would be better to board pyrite spellbomb as oppose to path to exile just for the opponents kor firewalkers and maybe affinity's etched champion, cause if need be pyrite can be used to shoot face too
Question 2
i think i have alot of esper controls in my meta what would you board in against esper control if you are playing, please advise thank you.
Question 3
Scenario : if opponents is at 10 life i am at 18 and he casted a kor firewalker, my hand is down to 3 (1 land and 2 lightning helix) would you continue to shoot face even though u can hit only 2 life, or would you save the burns and wait for a reply to kore firewalker.
Question 4
if opponent cast out birds of paradise on the 1st turn would you spend a lightning bolt to bolt it or would you shoot face?
Question 5
you just started your game and have 3 lavaspikes, 1 eidolon, 2 land, 1 searing blaze. my play would be
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , 2 lava spike
turn 3- eidolon - so as to prevent eating too much from eidolon
or would it be?
turn 1- land , lava spike
turn 2- land , eidolon
turn 3- 2 lavaspike - so as to deal more dmg to him with his own spells but in the process taking more dmg from your own eidolon
it seems i always do very decently in the first game, and i always lose in the 2nd and 3rd game, would anyone have any advice for me on the techniques of sideboarding? thank you.
any help is really really much appreciated. {frustrated fire mage trying to get better @@}
First one includes Wild Nacatl.
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Wild Nacatl
Instants
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
2 Shard Volley
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lava Spike
Land
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Scalding Tarn
3 Windswept Heath
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
2 Mountain
2 Skullcrack
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Path to Exile
3 Molten Rain
4 Destructive Revelry
1 Searing Blaze
I like the inclusion of Nacatl if we are going deeper green simply because it makes the pump mode on Atarka's Command even more relevant and Boros Charm's double strike mode also becomes relevant on occasions. Major problem I can see is we are taking a lot of pain from our lands and trying to get WW for Firewalker is dubious. Still, I think this list has potential to be very cool. I'm also running Windswept Heath because I cannot afford any other enemy fetches at the moment.
The second list is more traditional
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
1 Grim Lavamancer
Instants
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Searing Blaze
2 Shard Volley
3 Skullcrack
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lava Spike
Lands
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Windswept Heath
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
1 Clifftop Retreat
3 Mountain
1 Skullcrack
1 Searing Blaze
4 Destructive Revelry
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Path to Exile
1 Deflecting Palm
3 Molten Rain
GBGB AggroGB
Modern
GBRWDeath's ShadowGBRW
UBWRAffinityUBWR
GRTitanshiftGR
URBGrixis ControlURB
Legacy
BUGTrue Name BUGBUG
UBRGrixis DelverUBR
BUGShardless BUGBUG
BUGElvesBUG
Against control it's important to keep your mana curve low so that they are punished for playing reactive spells by losing a lot of tempo - so make sure not to board in too heavily. A meta with tons of esper control might warrant specific sideboard options like molten rain to punish greedy mana bases. Otherwise just stay low to the ground and keep that skullcrack/command mana up (bluff when you have low opportunity cost) turn 3 and later for timely reinforcements
Stop casting spells until you find an answer. An important caveat here is : Are they playing red spells as well? Sitting on your spells is much more effective when you are the only one playing red spells. If they also play red spells, lean on bluffing and playing skullcrack to make blocking a hard choice with the firewalker, and try to prevent multiple gains of life with a well-timed skullcrack when they start slinging those bolts at you.
I think the question here is why you are playing lightning bolt turn 1. The normal turn 1 plays like rift bolt/lava spike/1-drop haster don't allow for killing the bird. I normally let the bird live, unless I read a weak mana hand from the opponent. As a general rule, I don't bolt the bird as it is not consistent with our linear game plan. That being said, here is where reading a player's tells can really break them.
Always jam Eidolon early and often, unless the board state allows the opponent to outrace you. In the above, I will always try to jam him turn 2, unless I'm playing around a spell snare.
There are a ton of thoughts in this thread about sideboards. I would suggest that reading a good number of pages backwards will give you a good cross-section of opinions.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
pretty much agre with wpgstevo, but a couple of things:
3-this depend of a LOT of questions: how many lands he have untapped? he can respond with counters? what deck if he playing? if i tapout i send a wrong signal to my opponent? if the firewalker is in table, wait for an answer, if the firewalker is in the stack, go to the face right now
4-what deck play birds anyway?? i always kill the bird/hierach, unless i have info to let them live ( he is not playing rhino/finks/ expensive leyline), against hatebear for example, i let the bird live, but against little kid abzan, infect an other hierach deck i want the mana dork dead.
5-unless you are playing mirror and are on the draw, always always always eidolon first, you dont care about minimize damage to you, is all about maximize damage to opponent
sideboard advice: dont dilute your game plan, you may want to play different (bluffing that you have skullcrack, etc), but deck wise you dont change your deck a lot, on average i only change like 3 card with sideboard.
practice a lot, the hard part of playing burn and any other easy hate deck (dredge, storm, etc) is exactly post sideboard games.