I'm still running 22 lands - 20 forest and canopy+treetop. Thrun just feels more like a plan B than a natural 4 drop finishing off the curve. Even when I have the mana, I very rarely drop Thrun and tap out. Perhaps my meta is simply shifting, it feels like there isn't any U/W/R, Twin or R/U/G left - only Rock, Affinity and Tron :-( Bow kept me alive against Scapeshift, broke a pod stalemate and allowed me to push through against affinity that had a million different ways to deal lethal on the return. Had a 5/3 E1, he was only able to triple block my E1
So I did this just cuz I like you guys (girls?). Magic Workstation has a deep deck analysis tool that tells you percentages of drawing sets of cards. We have the math, we can make it better.
Basically, for non-math savvy people, in a 22 Land deck, you have a 30% chance of drawing 2 Land in your opening hand. But by Turn 2 (your 3rd turn), you have 29% of having exactly 3 lands that you need to drop that Leatherback Baloth or Dungrove Elder.
By Turn 3-5 (your 4th to 6th turn), you have a ~25% of being able to drop your Thrun, The Last Troll in a timely manner that Evolves your Experiment One.
If you prefer more, or less, you can adjust your deck accordingly but now you would know the probability.
Overall, now that I see the math, 22 lands for sure. The peak of your curve is at 2-3 lands in your opening hand which is where I want to be. One click down (21 Land deck), I increase my chances of drawing 1-0 lands from 19% to 22% which we know is certain death for our deck. In a deck that runs Aether Vial, Birds of Paradise, or Noble Hierarch, 1 Land is still smooth sailing.
At 23 Lands in the deck, the peak is at exactly 3 lands on T0-T2. At T3, I would have the highest chance of having 4 Lands on board which we know is unnecessary in most situations. But for the player who WANTS cards like Thrun, The Last Troll to synergize perfectly into the deck so he can be played more consistently on T3, then 23 Lands is the way to go.
Actually, i would love to know how, according to this, the probability of having two lands in your opening hand is higher when you play 21 instead of 22 lands...
"EXACTLY" 2 lands in your opening hand. You're confusing "exactly 2 lands" with "at least 2 lands" in your opening hand. It's all bell curves my friend. If you play 21 lands in a deck, you have a higher chance of drawing *exactly* 2 lands in your opening hand oppose to pushing the curve a slight push towards *exactly* 3 lands in your opening hand. I tutored calculus in college 2 years, the math is sound. The interpretation might be harder for most.
Not to mention, everything is rounded 0.5% or so of course.
It's good to have math verifying my instincts are right haha. I really appreciate the insight.
So this means if I dropped Thrun and Liege, I shouldn't drop any land?
Mmm, at that point it depends on your 3-drops. If you're *only running 4 Leatherback Baloths, I would run 21 land, I think you'd be safe. You would still have a pretty good shot *29% of having that 3rd land on your T3 when you needed it to play everything in sync. But the trade is obviously you would have a higher risk of operating only exclusively on 2 lands. At 22 lands, you have a 25% chance on your T4 of having an excess 4th land which would be considered useless. On the other hand, if you feel your deck can optimally run on 2 lands, then you want to run a 20 land deck, and eventually, mid-late game, that 3rd land will come out and you can drop them Leatherback Baloths
Then again, you also need to consider your SB. Creeping Corrosion is important to me and eventually, I'll need that 4th land during an affinity match up.
Yeah, Ooze usually the first to go to every thought seize, discard, burn, and destruction. You really lose tempo too dropping a 2 drop 2/2. Seeing as we can't fill our graveyard anyway, drawing an ooze semi-mid game is better than opening a hand with him.
Yeah, Ooze usually the first to go to every thought seize, discard, burn, and destruction. You really lose tempo too dropping a 2 drop 2/2. Seeing as we can't fill our graveyard anyway, drawing an ooze semi-mid game is better than opening a hand with him.
I see, Hmmm then i could prob cut the liege for a dungrove elder, more hexproof doesn't hurt.
Private Mod Note
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Standard : What is Stand-tart
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
It's a non-budget move, but I've been experimenting with splashing black so I could replace the 2 Prey Upons and 2 Dismembers with 4 Abrupt Decay. A lot of times when i absolutely have to cast the Dismember, I end up paying 4 life and have it get countered anyway. Backbreaking.
Wondering what's the right way to go about it... Currently, I've been running 4 Verdant Catacombs w/ 4 Overgrown Tombs and 2 Woodland Cemetary. I think that might be too many Tombs.
What do you guys think of the move, and what's the ratio of fetch/shock/buddy lands?
FYI, I run Raking Canopy in the sideboard to deal with guys like Colonnade, Resto, etc.
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My favorite Magic Card of all time is Traumatize. I don't win very often.
It's a non-budget move, but I've been experimenting with splashing black so I could replace the 2 Prey Upons and 2 Dismembers with 4 Abrupt Decay. A lot of times when i absolutely have to cast the Dismember, I end up paying 4 life and have it get countered anyway. Backbreaking.
Wondering what's the right way to go about it... Currently, I've been running 4 Verdant Catacombs w/ 4 Overgrown Tombs and 2 Woodland Cemetary. I think that might be too many Tombs.
What do you guys think of the move, and what's the ratio of fetch/shock/buddy lands?
FYI, I run Raking Canopy in the sideboard to deal with guys like Colonnade, Resto, etc.
4 fetches, 2 overgrown,1 swamp and maybe 1 or 2 woodland cemetary should do.
reasoning is that u can use the fetch to fetch the overgrown that comes into play tapped, however sometimes u would want to cast abrupt immediately providing you already have a forest in play, you could fetch a untapped swamp to cast abrupt without spending another 2 life untapping overgrown tomb.
Yeah i feel ya, dismember could be a blessing or curse sometimes.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Standard : What is Stand-tart
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
Basically, for non-math savvy people, in a 22 Land deck, you have a 30% chance of drawing 2 Land in your opening hand. But by Turn 2 (your 3rd turn), you have 29% of having exactly 3 lands that you need to drop that Leatherback Baloth or Dungrove Elder.
By Turn 3-5 (your 4th to 6th turn), you have a ~25% of being able to drop your Thrun, The Last Troll in a timely manner that Evolves your Experiment One.
If you prefer more, or less, you can adjust your deck accordingly but now you would know the probability.
At 23 Lands in the deck, the peak is at exactly 3 lands on T0-T2. At T3, I would have the highest chance of having 4 Lands on board which we know is unnecessary in most situations. But for the player who WANTS cards like Thrun, The Last Troll to synergize perfectly into the deck so he can be played more consistently on T3, then 23 Lands is the way to go.
So this means if I dropped Thrun and Liege, I shouldn't drop any land?
"EXACTLY" 2 lands in your opening hand. You're confusing "exactly 2 lands" with "at least 2 lands" in your opening hand. It's all bell curves my friend. If you play 21 lands in a deck, you have a higher chance of drawing *exactly* 2 lands in your opening hand oppose to pushing the curve a slight push towards *exactly* 3 lands in your opening hand. I tutored calculus in college 2 years, the math is sound. The interpretation might be harder for most.
Not to mention, everything is rounded 0.5% or so of course.
Mmm, at that point it depends on your 3-drops. If you're *only running 4 Leatherback Baloths, I would run 21 land, I think you'd be safe. You would still have a pretty good shot *29% of having that 3rd land on your T3 when you needed it to play everything in sync. But the trade is obviously you would have a higher risk of operating only exclusively on 2 lands. At 22 lands, you have a 25% chance on your T4 of having an excess 4th land which would be considered useless. On the other hand, if you feel your deck can optimally run on 2 lands, then you want to run a 20 land deck, and eventually, mid-late game, that 3rd land will come out and you can drop them Leatherback Baloths
Then again, you also need to consider your SB. Creeping Corrosion is important to me and eventually, I'll need that 4th land during an affinity match up.
I'll stick with 22 and consider cutting Thrun and/or Liege and reworking some things.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
I see, normally my oozes keep getting killed in playtesting, guess peeps just hate oozes that much =(
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
I see, Hmmm then i could prob cut the liege for a dungrove elder, more hexproof doesn't hurt.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
Wondering what's the right way to go about it... Currently, I've been running 4 Verdant Catacombs w/ 4 Overgrown Tombs and 2 Woodland Cemetary. I think that might be too many Tombs.
What do you guys think of the move, and what's the ratio of fetch/shock/buddy lands?
FYI, I run Raking Canopy in the sideboard to deal with guys like Colonnade, Resto, etc.
4 fetches, 2 overgrown,1 swamp and maybe 1 or 2 woodland cemetary should do.
reasoning is that u can use the fetch to fetch the overgrown that comes into play tapped, however sometimes u would want to cast abrupt immediately providing you already have a forest in play, you could fetch a untapped swamp to cast abrupt without spending another 2 life untapping overgrown tomb.
Yeah i feel ya, dismember could be a blessing or curse sometimes.
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU
Not yet, was just asking for suggestions =)
Modern : Huh?
EDH : UBGW Thrasios / Tymna Combo UBGW // GRW Mayael Big Stuff GRW // GU Edric Timewalkers GU