Some interesting stuff: Phoenix is best, we know that. Two fair decks among the top 4 decks (BG midrange and UW control). Metagame seems relatively settled at the moment, which will favor control players who are willing to investigate the meta.
its really gonna come down to how the mythic championship pans out. even with the london mulligan throwing another variable into the mix, we know that wizards cares about how the pros approach or perceive the format. we can scoff at how relevant pro-tour results are given the inclusion of draft, however i dont think its unreasonable to say that perception is a driving force in the modern meta; and like it or not pros are a major influence.
the next announcement is the only time they can unban SFM before horizons. under normal circumstances id say that the recent and upcoming results might weigh in on the decision; however they are kinda priced in to their decision because sfm is either reprinted in horizons or it isnt. unlike a non-modern masters set, sfms presence cant be explained away. an unban without a reprint is a possibility, but i could see them viewing it as too much too quickly.
as it stands horizons is walking a tightrope with what its trying to accomplish. some amount of influence and subsequently appeal, but not so much its overbearing on the format. their comments on cabal therapist being top 10 power level and the (indirect) assurances that they at least consider what it means for a non-rotating format to develop naturally (ie slowly) gives a vague idea of what they are hoping for. so just like wizards possibly not taking any actions because of horizons, its also true that action might be warranted lest the set fall short.
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the next announcement is the only time they can unban SFM before horizons. under normal circumstances id say that the recent and upcoming results might weigh in on the decision; however they are kinda priced in to their decision because sfm is either reprinted in horizons or it isnt. unlike a non-modern masters set, sfms presence cant be explained away. an unban without a reprint is a possibility, but i could see them viewing it as too much too quickly.
If I recall correctly, MaRo already confirmed that they were not going to repring any card from a modern-legal set, that includes banned cards like SFM so we have confirmation that SFM will not be in Modern Horizons.
On the top10 power level including Cabal Therapist, I am secretly hoping we misjudged the card and it ends up being better than we expected. Otherwise we can expect about 4 or 5 cards to have a significant impact on the metagame.
I am expecting Astral Slide to be one of those cards and if it is, it should create a whole new archetype which is always positive, so even if it is just 4 or 5 cards, if they have such a big impact to create new archetypes, the set would still have a great impact on the overall picture.
I just hope one of those is not a new mythic that is only available in Modern horizons, but that belongs in the prices discussion
I think diversity is over exaggerated when it comes to the spikiest of spikes. It always seems that if you want to totally maximize you chances of winning then theres usually just 3 or 4 decks that you should be playing and thats it.
Not saying its a good or bad thing. Modern is diverse because you can win with almost anything. But if you are grinding every tournament to win then usually you are limited to just a few if you are being totally serious
Cabal Therapist is a good card. Not saying it's the most OP discard spell, but in the correct shell it can do some damage. I think it will end up in black midrange strategies to fight things like storm where there needs to be a good number of spells to go off.
In a bw tokens build that may be better than paths for fighting combo/control strategies that just sit on cards.
Cabal Therapist is a good card. Not saying it's the most OP discard spell, but in the correct shell it can do some damage. I think it will end up in black midrange strategies to fight things like storm where there needs to be a good number of spells to go off.
In a bw tokens build that may be better than paths for fighting combo/control strategies that just sit on cards.
Yea, between Bitterblossom and Bitterblossom 2.0 I could see that archetype gaining some traction.
If I recall correctly, MaRo already confirmed that they were not going to repring any card from a modern-legal set, that includes banned cards like SFM so we have confirmation that SFM will not be in Modern Horizons.
On the top10 power level including Cabal Therapist, I am secretly hoping we misjudged the card and it ends up being better than we expected. Otherwise we can expect about 4 or 5 cards to have a significant impact on the metagame.
I am expecting Astral Slide to be one of those cards and if it is, it should create a whole new archetype which is always positive, so even if it is just 4 or 5 cards, if they have such a big impact to create new archetypes, the set would still have a great impact on the overall picture.
I just hope one of those is not a new mythic that is only available in Modern horizons, but that belongs in the prices discussion
ah my mistake. i was going off the stream announcement for the set where their wording was just open ended and vague enough where it was a possibility.
yeah the cabal therapist thing is a head scratcher. i see others saying they think the card might be secretly good or is just outright good, but honestly in the context of modern right now im rating it as fringe playable at its best. i havent played with cabal therapy, but ive watched a whole lot of legacy; so i can see the elements about the format that make it good. most of which doesnt translate to modern that well. /shrug its a card that will have to play much better than it reads imo
I think diversity is over exaggerated when it comes to the spikiest of spikes. It always seems that if you want to totally maximize you chances of winning then theres usually just 3 or 4 decks that you should be playing and thats it.
Not saying its a good or bad thing. Modern is diverse because you can win with almost anything. But if you are grinding every tournament to win then usually you are limited to just a few if you are being totally serious
i agree. im not sure who coined the term 'winners meta', but i think its a pretty apt description. thing is that these decks vying for the top are still subject to format cycles. its what you expect to see at the top tables and or on day 2 of major tournaments and top level competitors are banking on some mixture of skill, luck, and hopefully byes to get there to leverage an arguably minor edge. so its a bit different than having a small subset of decks that are truly ahead of the pack.
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I agree, but this begs the question: Is Infect a combo deck (with creatures)? It can go fetch, turn 1 creature, turn 2 sth, turn 3 fetch, Might of old krosa, mutagenic growth, mutagenic growth, mishra's bauble, become immense.
I hate to admit it, but there's a world where Infect could be seen as Combo. I personally don't see it like that, but it may also be my biases. I do believe that most good decks are either super resilient to what they do or can change gears. That's how I see Dredge. Maybe I am lumping too many decks into the old school type definitions? I see creatures, I usually assume Aggro, but Magic is much different now. There literally are very, very few decks without creatures. Even Sultai Reclamation plays Snap Mage, Ad Nauseam plays Lab Man, Storm plays Baral/Electroman, Grishoalbrand runs 14 total creatures even if 4 are Simian Spirit Guides, and so on. It's tough for me to get on board with these new categorizing strategies, but I think we don't HAVE to get too hung up on them.
I used to love playing Control or Combo because my opponents' creature removal was dead. I often try to adhere to these types of strategies nowadays whenever I can, for example Sakura-Tribe Elder being "immune" to removal and Prime Time hard to kill (or his effects have already been felt).
I don't think we have to agree with everyone as well. Patrick Chapin is one of the brightest minds that's ever played the game. And he labels Modern Burn as Combo. Sorry, I just will never see it that way, even if friends try to tilt me by reminding me of Chapin's classification.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I'd describe my expectations of Horizons as "cautiously pessimistic". It's silly to make huge claims with only 2 cards spoiled but my gut feeling is that this set will not add *that* much more than a regular set would. And even if the set is significantly more powerful than a normal set I don't see it solving the linearity issues I deem modern to have.
It really depend of your "combo" definition. If i use this one https://mtg.gamepedia.com/Combo_deck, dredge is 100% a combo deck. It's a combo/aggro cause it work like a combo deck that still need combat phase to win most of the time.
Pheonix decks can also be seen as a combo deck. It's basically "storm stormless". Burn is considered as a combo deck too. Hell, even harden scale can be seens as a combo deck if your definition is wide enough.
You can't put those decks as aggro or combo. They are both, they don't win instantly with their combo, but it put them ahead in the game.
If you thouseize a drdge player on turn 1 on the play and discard their only looter, you'll see that they are totally not an aggro deck.
These deck are aggro/combo for me. But, once again, it really depend of your definition.
It doesn't fit into any of the current top decks. Phoenix, Dredge, Humans, Spirits, Death's Shadow, Hardened Scales, Tron, UW control, Amulet, Rock, Jund, Burn, Whir Prison.
The only deck it fits into is Ad Nauseam, and even there its awkward and probably worse than Spirit Guide. So can someone explain this to me? Are there any decks I am forgetting?
Chrome Mox makes Modern Belcher a thing, and nobody wants that. Even if it wasn't for Belcher, think about what that card does. Fast mana only speeds decks up, and the decks that would most want something like this are fast combo decks. Does Modern really need to be faster and even more unfair than it currently is? No, it does not. So Chrome Mox would not be a good card to put into Modern.
I don't buy the argument that Belcher suddenly becomes playable with Chrome Mox. It's still a glass-cannon deck, much like Griselbrand combo and Cheerios. These type of strategies tend to mulligan terribly and fold to commonly played sideboard effects
We are at a point in Modern where free mana is considered offensive (and for good reason IMHO). Mox Opal, according to a previous announcement, is on the "watchlist) for a potential ban. Why on earth would they unban the best free mana artifact available in the modern cardpool if they find Mox Opan offensive?
I think his points stands. Modern Belcher is going to need a lot more than just Chrome Mox to become "playable." And when I say playable, I realize that everyone has a different definition. Some people believe that only UR Phoenix, Dredge, Amulet, Whir Prison, and Grixis Shadow are playable right now and I can't fault them for that line of thinking (yes, even with the 1 win that a Jund Titanshift deck did this weekend) We are talking about giving yourself the BEST chance, not just spiking a tournament with a deck that put you at a disadvantage from the start, even if you out tested all other 2,000 players at the GP.
Even though many of us assume it, I don't think Wizards has ever said explicitly that Mox Opal to be close to a banning. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here.
But I do believe that your point also stands because Wizards seemingly does not want (and I say this loosely because honestly there isn't any proof) fast mana to be prevalent in Modern. I guess there technically is proof with Rite of Flame and Seething Song banned, but other cards are not banned. This is the most likely conclusion one can have.
My point is that you can't blame someone for questioning the line of thinking - Chrome Mox won't get unbanned because of Belcher because Belcher has no relevance in the current meta and there is some percentage of players over 0% that don't believe Belcher to potentially be a problem if Chrome Mox is unbanned. My own opinion is that I don't think it currently should be unbanned, but I think it's close. I think 5 unbannings down the line, it SHOULD come off. I just don't know if that time period is 2 years or 22 years.
I don't think Belcher is the reason Chrome Mox should stay on the banned list. You actually can build a fairly consistent Belcher deck with just Chrome Mox, and Mox Opal as your mana base, shockingly enough, but that's beside the point really. Chrome Mox is an incredibly swingy card, especially on the play, when you're up 2 mana to nothing on turn 1. It gives most aggro, midrange, and control decks a huge leg up if they get to start with it, to the point where the advantage can easily snowball way out of control. I'd argue that the reason Fairies was so dominant was the Chrome Mox into Spellstutter Sprite starts. The only way to compete is to run 4 Chrome Mox yourself. It's a major issue in terms of deckbuilding balance. If you're building a deck with colored spells, it's usually correct to start with 4 Chrome Mox. Heck, half of the reason Tezzerator is so strong in NBLM is that it can afford to run Chrome Mox and Mox Opal, allowing some truly absurd turn 1 plays. Trust me, Chrome Mox should stay banned, and was absolutely a design mistake. There are three cards on the Banned List that absolutely need to stay banned or Modern will no longer be a fun format for most people: Skullclamp, Dread Return, and Chrome Mox. I can conceive of ways that you could make a meta to balance Dark Depths, Umezawa's Jitte, the artifact lands, or Sensei's Divining Top, but those three just break the game in half. You'd need to completely rework the rules to make them fair.
I don't think Belcher is the reason Chrome Mox should stay on the banned list. You actually can build a fairly consistent Belcher deck with just Chrome Mox, and Mox Opal as your mana base, shockingly enough, but that's beside the point really. Chrome Mox is an incredibly swingy card, especially on the play, when you're up 2 mana to nothing on turn 1. It gives most aggro, midrange, and control decks a huge leg up if they get to start with it, to the point where the advantage can easily snowball way out of control. I'd argue that the reason Fairies was so dominant was the Chrome Mox into Spellstutter Sprite starts. The only way to compete is to run 4 Chrome Mox yourself. It's a major issue in terms of deckbuilding balance. If you're building a deck with colored spells, it's usually correct to start with 4 Chrome Mox. Heck, half of the reason Tezzerator is so strong in NBLM is that it can afford to run Chrome Mox and Mox Opal, allowing some truly absurd turn 1 plays. Trust me, Chrome Mox should stay banned, and was absolutely a design mistake. There are three cards on the Banned List that absolutely need to stay banned or Modern will no longer be a fun format for most people: Skullclamp, Dread Return, and Chrome Mox. I can conceive of ways that you could make a meta to balance Dark Depths, Umezawa's Jitte, the artifact lands, or Sensei's Divining Top, but those three just break the game in half. You'd need to completely rework the rules to make them fair.
Ignoring the Chrome Mox debate for a minute here, I am going to have to disagree that those 3 cards are the ones that should stay banned forever in modern.
The other two I believe to be Sensei's Divining Top and Eye of Ugin. The first one causes time delays in the format and potentially makes miracles tier 0. The second one - well we saw what happens when Eye and Temple are legal at the same time.
Dread Return makes dredge somewhat better than it is currently, but it doesn't solve any of dredge's problems. It still loses to the same graveyard hate that it currently does.
Back to Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is a very powerful card yes, but even though it has broad applications across the format not every colored deck is going to want to play it. It's still card disadvantage in the end. Noble Hierarch is also fairly swingy on the play, and many decks would prefer to play that than Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is, IMO, a way for decks that do not have access to Aether Vial, Mox Opal, mana dorks (birds, hierarch, arbor elf), Tron Lands, Eldrazi Lands, or red Rituals to compete against these decks by trading card advantage for mana. Tezzerator? Please show me a list and how you are going to reliably play both Mox Opal and Chrome Mox in the same deck when they each require you to play cards that do not synergize well together (Opal requires artifacts, Chrome requires non-artifacts)
Dread Return makes dredge somewhat better than it is currently, but it doesn't solve any of dredge's problems. It still loses to the same graveyard hate that it currently does.
Having played Dredge in Vintage with Bridge from Below and Dread Return, I think you don't realize how explosive the nut draws can be when you have access to a free reanimation spell that creates an army of zombies when you cast it.
Seriously, it's one of those cards you don't realize how stupidly strong it is until you play it.
Dread Return makes dredge somewhat better than it is currently, but it doesn't solve any of dredge's problems. It still loses to the same graveyard hate that it currently does.
Having played Dredge in Vintage with Bridge from Below and Dread Return, I think you don't realize how explosive the nut draws can be when you have access to a free reanimation spell that creates an army of zombies when you cast it.
Seriously, it's one of those cards you don't realize how stupidly strong it is until you play it.
I think the issue is that Modern Dredge doesn't have cards like Breakthrough or even Golgari Grave-Troll for that matter to put gobs of cards into the graveyard. Then they only have Narcomoeba as super free and quick creatures to sacrifice to the casting cost of Dread Return. The deck would be very different. Yes, a turn 2-3 Iona, Shield of Emeria, among others, would be extremely annoying. But I agree with ElectricEye (maybe it is showing our biases) here.
Dark Depths in my opinion, is not close to being unbanned. When Dark Depths was legal in Extended, everyone ran Repeal and Bitterblossom. Is that the format you want? All UB? I don't mind, but I doubt others would enjoy it.
I would order cards safe to come back in this order of the ones Mortal Coil listed...
1. Dread Return - even though I've read all the "proof" here of a turn 2 Iona, I just don't see it
2. Sensei's Divining Top - it is only an issue because of players taking too long (I guess that's enough, but it's sad)
3. Chrome Mox - it's free mana and having 2 mana on turn 1 leads even more to a Chalice vs. 1 mana spell format
4. Dark Depths - the card just twists the meta. unless there's other really powerful stuff going on, you need a reason to not just be running this -> 12 discard spells, Repeal, Bitterblossom, and the Combo.
5. Umezawa's Jitte - makes it a format of who draws Jitte first because most decks will run 4.
6. Artifact lands - just really stupid in Affinity, KCI's gone so that's no longer a threat
Never ever, not even in no banned list Modern - Skullclamp - card's just stupid good, an engine that you can't beat in a fair game. May not matter if Modern is 75% unfair.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I don't think Belcher is the reason Chrome Mox should stay on the banned list. You actually can build a fairly consistent Belcher deck with just Chrome Mox, and Mox Opal as your mana base, shockingly enough, but that's beside the point really. Chrome Mox is an incredibly swingy card, especially on the play, when you're up 2 mana to nothing on turn 1. It gives most aggro, midrange, and control decks a huge leg up if they get to start with it, to the point where the advantage can easily snowball way out of control. I'd argue that the reason Fairies was so dominant was the Chrome Mox into Spellstutter Sprite starts. The only way to compete is to run 4 Chrome Mox yourself. It's a major issue in terms of deckbuilding balance. If you're building a deck with colored spells, it's usually correct to start with 4 Chrome Mox. Heck, half of the reason Tezzerator is so strong in NBLM is that it can afford to run Chrome Mox and Mox Opal, allowing some truly absurd turn 1 plays. Trust me, Chrome Mox should stay banned, and was absolutely a design mistake. There are three cards on the Banned List that absolutely need to stay banned or Modern will no longer be a fun format for most people: Skullclamp, Dread Return, and Chrome Mox. I can conceive of ways that you could make a meta to balance Dark Depths, Umezawa's Jitte, the artifact lands, or Sensei's Divining Top, but those three just break the game in half. You'd need to completely rework the rules to make them fair.
Ignoring the Chrome Mox debate for a minute here, I am going to have to disagree that those 3 cards are the ones that should stay banned forever in modern.
The other two I believe to be Sensei's Divining Top and Eye of Ugin. The first one causes time delays in the format and potentially makes miracles tier 0. The second one - well we saw what happens when Eye and Temple are legal at the same time.
Dread Return makes dredge somewhat better than it is currently, but it doesn't solve any of dredge's problems. It still loses to the same graveyard hate that it currently does.
Back to Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is a very powerful card yes, but even though it has broad applications across the format not every colored deck is going to want to play it. It's still card disadvantage in the end. Noble Hierarch is also fairly swingy on the play, and many decks would prefer to play that than Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is, IMO, a way for decks that do not have access to Aether Vial, Mox Opal, mana dorks (birds, hierarch, arbor elf), Tron Lands, Eldrazi Lands, or red Rituals to compete against these decks by trading card advantage for mana. Tezzerator? Please show me a list and how you are going to reliably play both Mox Opal and Chrome Mox in the same deck when they each require you to play cards that do not synergize well together (Opal requires artifacts, Chrome requires non-artifacts)
I've never really had much issue with activating both Moxen with this list, and it beats the pants off of everything except the mirror and White Weenie.It's a little less explosive than the versions with Gemstone Caverns, but it's a bit more consistent.
I don't buy the argument that Belcher suddenly becomes playable with Chrome Mox. It's still a glass-cannon deck, much like Griselbrand combo and Cheerios. These type of strategies tend to mulligan terribly and fold to commonly played sideboard effects
I think his points stands. Modern Belcher is going to need a lot more than just Chrome Mox to become "playable." And when I say playable, I realize that everyone has a different definition. Some people believe that only UR Phoenix, Dredge, Amulet, Whir Prison, and Grixis Shadow are playable right now and I can't fault them for that line of thinking (yes, even with the 1 win that a Jund Titanshift deck did this weekend) We are talking about giving yourself the BEST chance, not just spiking a tournament with a deck that put you at a disadvantage from the start, even if you out tested all other 2,000 players at the GP.
Even though many of us assume it, I don't think Wizards has ever said explicitly that Mox Opal to be close to a banning. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here.
But I do believe that your point also stands because Wizards seemingly does not want (and I say this loosely because honestly there isn't any proof) fast mana to be prevalent in Modern. I guess there technically is proof with Rite of Flame and Seething Song banned, but other cards are not banned. This is the most likely conclusion one can have.
My point is that you can't blame someone for questioning the line of thinking - Chrome Mox won't get unbanned because of Belcher because Belcher has no relevance in the current meta and there is some percentage of players over 0% that don't believe Belcher to potentially be a problem if Chrome Mox is unbanned. My own opinion is that I don't think it currently should be unbanned, but I think it's close. I think 5 unbannings down the line, it SHOULD come off. I just don't know if that time period is 2 years or 22 years.
This video is a few years old, but the point still stands. Belcher requires a certain amount of free fast mana to be consistent enough to be a real deck. There is a mono-green version now that's sort of a meme deck because it's capable of very quick kills, but it's inconsistent. Raising the number of free fast mana spells in the format from 8 copies to 12 greatly increases the consistency of this strategy, especially if they end up going with the London Mulligan. There is a very real possibility that adding Chrome Mox to the format makes Belcher consistent enough to be a real player in the meta, and do we really need another turn 1 or 2 deck in Modern? No, we don't.
Even if it's not Belcher specifically, Chrome Mox would absolutely result in the format speeding up, because that's what free fast mana does. We need to go in the opposite direction, so Chrome Mox is a huge no-go for an unbanning.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Just give me any of those cards(or similar ones), in that order(first are more important), and Modern will be a lot better than it already is!
You know I like all those choices honestly. Great List.
I'm fine with those choices too. Some of those may not even see much play but could be good in the right deck. Generally I think those are about the right power level, or some could even be a bit stronger.
I think the issue is that Modern Dredge doesn't have cards like Breakthrough or even Golgari Grave-Troll for that matter to put gobs of cards into the graveyard. Then they only have Narcomoeba as super free and quick creatures to sacrifice to the casting cost of Dread Return. The deck would be very different. Yes, a turn 2-3 Iona, Shield of Emeria, among others, would be extremely annoying. But I agree with ElectricEye (maybe it is showing our biases) here.
In my experience, Dread Return only needs Narcomoeba and Bloodghast as free creatures. GGT is great, but not required for combo dredge to function. Breakthrough is amazing, but Faithless Looting gets the job done. If they traded Bridge from Below to the banned list to get Dread Return off of it, it would still cause problems with cards like Lingering Souls to fuel very cheap reanimation. It's less of a problem than it is with Bridge, but it will always be an issue. I should clarify though- Manaless or Landless Dredge doesn't work well in Modern or NBLM and isn't really an issue. The only difference between Combo Dredge and Aggro Dredge is how many turns they expect to kill you over. Combo Dredge kills in 1 turn, basically. Aggro Dredge will kill you over 2-4 turns, but is way more resilient to hate.
Dark Depths in my opinion, is not close to being unbanned. When Dark Depths was legal in Extended, everyone ran Repeal and Bitterblossom. Is that the format you want? All UB? I don't mind, but I doubt others would enjoy it.
While Dark Depths is obviously never coming off the banned list, I think you're vastly overselling how effective it is. It's strong, but it's pretty straight forward to counter: Ensnaring Bridge, Needle Hexmage/Stage, Path/exile spells, sac spells, or bounce spells. In my mind, the most problematic element about this card isn't the speed or the effect, it's the fact that basically any deck that runs lands can get rejigged to run the combo and still be efficient. That means you have to respect it, even if the actual effect isn't even that strong in the scheme of things.
I would order cards safe to come back in this order of the ones Mortal Coil listed...
1. Dread Return - even though I've read all the "proof" here of a turn 2 Iona, I just don't see it
2. Sensei's Divining Top - it is only an issue because of players taking too long (I guess that's enough, but it's sad)
3. Chrome Mox - it's free mana and having 2 mana on turn 1 leads even more to a Chalice vs. 1 mana spell format
4. Dark Depths - the card just twists the meta. unless there's other really powerful stuff going on, you need a reason to not just be running this -> 12 discard spells, Repeal, Bitterblossom, and the Combo.
5. Umezawa's Jitte - makes it a format of who draws Jitte first because most decks will run 4.
6. Artifact lands - just really stupid in Affinity, KCI's gone so that's no longer a threat
Never ever, not even in no banned list Modern - Skullclamp - card's just stupid good, an engine that you can't beat in a fair game. May not matter if Modern is 75% unfair.
I dunno. Without Ironworks, the only other cards that are actually problematic with the Artifact lands are Mox Opal, Cranial Plating, and Arcbound Ravager. Without Ravager and Plating, Affinity goes back to being Robots, which is a lot less impressive in my experience. Likewise, Jitte just doesn't really cut it. 9 times out of 10, unless you've got a hard lock on the opponent, you'll lose the turn you drop Jitte to a combo or a boardwipe. In my experience, the only really playable Equipment currently is Batterskull, and even then only as a combo piece in. Also, do not dismiss how strong Skullclamp is in "unfair" strategies, like Dredge, Affinity, and Elves. Clamp is just a fundamentally broken card.
Top is probably a little too much card selection to have with Fetches for Modern, I think. But in terms of power level, I agree that it's a very borderline case. That said, sitting through someone playing a deck with Top, but unfamiliar with how to use it is one of the most boring and aggrivating things about NBLM. At least with Eggs-like decks you can step away for a second to get a hot dog, but with a Top deck, everything you do has 30 seconds of hemming and hawing over the top three cards of their library before you can move on... only for your opponent to do it again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and... I digress. The funniest thing about it is that they'll often lose since they blow so much mana making sure they have the perfect order of their top 3, that they don't have enough to actually answer your play. It's kind of noob trap card in a way.
As for cards that would improve the Meta: Containment Priest is a must have. Having it in the format would help a lot, since it answers so many shenanigans.
Burn is a powerful, fast, proactive deck, so.... It's always good? You scoop it up to Soul Sisters or other wonky decks, but the large number of free wins outweighs that most of the time.
I mean if we are talking about overall performance, Burn is way over-represented and suffers from generally under performing with a win rate of around 45% in the most recent data.
Burn is a powerful, fast, proactive, INEXPENSIVE deck, so.... It's always good? You scoop it up to Soul Sisters or other wonky decks, but the large number of free wins outweighs that most of the time.
Fixed it for you.
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Some interesting stuff: Phoenix is best, we know that. Two fair decks among the top 4 decks (BG midrange and UW control). Metagame seems relatively settled at the moment, which will favor control players who are willing to investigate the meta.
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
the next announcement is the only time they can unban SFM before horizons. under normal circumstances id say that the recent and upcoming results might weigh in on the decision; however they are kinda priced in to their decision because sfm is either reprinted in horizons or it isnt. unlike a non-modern masters set, sfms presence cant be explained away. an unban without a reprint is a possibility, but i could see them viewing it as too much too quickly.
as it stands horizons is walking a tightrope with what its trying to accomplish. some amount of influence and subsequently appeal, but not so much its overbearing on the format. their comments on cabal therapist being top 10 power level and the (indirect) assurances that they at least consider what it means for a non-rotating format to develop naturally (ie slowly) gives a vague idea of what they are hoping for. so just like wizards possibly not taking any actions because of horizons, its also true that action might be warranted lest the set fall short.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)If I recall correctly, MaRo already confirmed that they were not going to repring any card from a modern-legal set, that includes banned cards like SFM so we have confirmation that SFM will not be in Modern Horizons.
On the top10 power level including Cabal Therapist, I am secretly hoping we misjudged the card and it ends up being better than we expected. Otherwise we can expect about 4 or 5 cards to have a significant impact on the metagame.
I am expecting Astral Slide to be one of those cards and if it is, it should create a whole new archetype which is always positive, so even if it is just 4 or 5 cards, if they have such a big impact to create new archetypes, the set would still have a great impact on the overall picture.
I just hope one of those is not a new mythic that is only available in Modern horizons, but that belongs in the prices discussion
Not saying its a good or bad thing. Modern is diverse because you can win with almost anything. But if you are grinding every tournament to win then usually you are limited to just a few if you are being totally serious
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
In a bw tokens build that may be better than paths for fighting combo/control strategies that just sit on cards.
Yea, between Bitterblossom and Bitterblossom 2.0 I could see that archetype gaining some traction.
ah my mistake. i was going off the stream announcement for the set where their wording was just open ended and vague enough where it was a possibility.
yeah the cabal therapist thing is a head scratcher. i see others saying they think the card might be secretly good or is just outright good, but honestly in the context of modern right now im rating it as fringe playable at its best. i havent played with cabal therapy, but ive watched a whole lot of legacy; so i can see the elements about the format that make it good. most of which doesnt translate to modern that well. /shrug its a card that will have to play much better than it reads imo
i agree. im not sure who coined the term 'winners meta', but i think its a pretty apt description. thing is that these decks vying for the top are still subject to format cycles. its what you expect to see at the top tables and or on day 2 of major tournaments and top level competitors are banking on some mixture of skill, luck, and hopefully byes to get there to leverage an arguably minor edge. so its a bit different than having a small subset of decks that are truly ahead of the pack.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I hate to admit it, but there's a world where Infect could be seen as Combo. I personally don't see it like that, but it may also be my biases. I do believe that most good decks are either super resilient to what they do or can change gears. That's how I see Dredge. Maybe I am lumping too many decks into the old school type definitions? I see creatures, I usually assume Aggro, but Magic is much different now. There literally are very, very few decks without creatures. Even Sultai Reclamation plays Snap Mage, Ad Nauseam plays Lab Man, Storm plays Baral/Electroman, Grishoalbrand runs 14 total creatures even if 4 are Simian Spirit Guides, and so on. It's tough for me to get on board with these new categorizing strategies, but I think we don't HAVE to get too hung up on them.
I used to love playing Control or Combo because my opponents' creature removal was dead. I often try to adhere to these types of strategies nowadays whenever I can, for example Sakura-Tribe Elder being "immune" to removal and Prime Time hard to kill (or his effects have already been felt).
I don't think we have to agree with everyone as well. Patrick Chapin is one of the brightest minds that's ever played the game. And he labels Modern Burn as Combo. Sorry, I just will never see it that way, even if friends try to tilt me by reminding me of Chapin's classification.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Just give me Counterspell and I'll be content.
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Pheonix decks can also be seen as a combo deck. It's basically "storm stormless". Burn is considered as a combo deck too. Hell, even harden scale can be seens as a combo deck if your definition is wide enough.
You can't put those decks as aggro or combo. They are both, they don't win instantly with their combo, but it put them ahead in the game.
If you thouseize a drdge player on turn 1 on the play and discard their only looter, you'll see that they are totally not an aggro deck.
These deck are aggro/combo for me. But, once again, it really depend of your definition.
I don't think Belcher is the reason Chrome Mox should stay on the banned list. You actually can build a fairly consistent Belcher deck with just Chrome Mox, and Mox Opal as your mana base, shockingly enough, but that's beside the point really. Chrome Mox is an incredibly swingy card, especially on the play, when you're up 2 mana to nothing on turn 1. It gives most aggro, midrange, and control decks a huge leg up if they get to start with it, to the point where the advantage can easily snowball way out of control. I'd argue that the reason Fairies was so dominant was the Chrome Mox into Spellstutter Sprite starts. The only way to compete is to run 4 Chrome Mox yourself. It's a major issue in terms of deckbuilding balance. If you're building a deck with colored spells, it's usually correct to start with 4 Chrome Mox. Heck, half of the reason Tezzerator is so strong in NBLM is that it can afford to run Chrome Mox and Mox Opal, allowing some truly absurd turn 1 plays. Trust me, Chrome Mox should stay banned, and was absolutely a design mistake. There are three cards on the Banned List that absolutely need to stay banned or Modern will no longer be a fun format for most people: Skullclamp, Dread Return, and Chrome Mox. I can conceive of ways that you could make a meta to balance Dark Depths, Umezawa's Jitte, the artifact lands, or Sensei's Divining Top, but those three just break the game in half. You'd need to completely rework the rules to make them fair.
Ignoring the Chrome Mox debate for a minute here, I am going to have to disagree that those 3 cards are the ones that should stay banned forever in modern.
Skullclamp I agree with, that one is obvious.
The other two I believe to be Sensei's Divining Top and Eye of Ugin. The first one causes time delays in the format and potentially makes miracles tier 0. The second one - well we saw what happens when Eye and Temple are legal at the same time.
Dread Return makes dredge somewhat better than it is currently, but it doesn't solve any of dredge's problems. It still loses to the same graveyard hate that it currently does.
Back to Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is a very powerful card yes, but even though it has broad applications across the format not every colored deck is going to want to play it. It's still card disadvantage in the end. Noble Hierarch is also fairly swingy on the play, and many decks would prefer to play that than Chrome Mox.
Chrome Mox is, IMO, a way for decks that do not have access to Aether Vial, Mox Opal, mana dorks (birds, hierarch, arbor elf), Tron Lands, Eldrazi Lands, or red Rituals to compete against these decks by trading card advantage for mana. Tezzerator? Please show me a list and how you are going to reliably play both Mox Opal and Chrome Mox in the same deck when they each require you to play cards that do not synergize well together (Opal requires artifacts, Chrome requires non-artifacts)
Having played Dredge in Vintage with Bridge from Below and Dread Return, I think you don't realize how explosive the nut draws can be when you have access to a free reanimation spell that creates an army of zombies when you cast it.
Seriously, it's one of those cards you don't realize how stupidly strong it is until you play it.
I think the issue is that Modern Dredge doesn't have cards like Breakthrough or even Golgari Grave-Troll for that matter to put gobs of cards into the graveyard. Then they only have Narcomoeba as super free and quick creatures to sacrifice to the casting cost of Dread Return. The deck would be very different. Yes, a turn 2-3 Iona, Shield of Emeria, among others, would be extremely annoying. But I agree with ElectricEye (maybe it is showing our biases) here.
Dark Depths in my opinion, is not close to being unbanned. When Dark Depths was legal in Extended, everyone ran Repeal and Bitterblossom. Is that the format you want? All UB? I don't mind, but I doubt others would enjoy it.
I would order cards safe to come back in this order of the ones Mortal Coil listed...
1. Dread Return - even though I've read all the "proof" here of a turn 2 Iona, I just don't see it
2. Sensei's Divining Top - it is only an issue because of players taking too long (I guess that's enough, but it's sad)
3. Chrome Mox - it's free mana and having 2 mana on turn 1 leads even more to a Chalice vs. 1 mana spell format
4. Dark Depths - the card just twists the meta. unless there's other really powerful stuff going on, you need a reason to not just be running this -> 12 discard spells, Repeal, Bitterblossom, and the Combo.
5. Umezawa's Jitte - makes it a format of who draws Jitte first because most decks will run 4.
6. Artifact lands - just really stupid in Affinity, KCI's gone so that's no longer a threat
Never ever, not even in no banned list Modern - Skullclamp - card's just stupid good, an engine that you can't beat in a fair game. May not matter if Modern is 75% unfair.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)So here's the Tezzerator deck I'm on in NBLM:
1 Academy Ruins
2 Inventors' Fair
1 Ipnu Rivulet
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Island
3 Darksteel Citadel
4 Seat of the Synod
2 Tolaria West
Artifact
2 Welding Jar
1 Witchbane Orb
4 Chrome Mox
4 Mox Opal
1 Pithing Needle
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Sorcerous Spyglass
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Chalice of the Void
1 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Damping Sphere
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Spellskite
4 Whir of Invention
2 Thirst for Knowledge
2 Repeal
Sorcery
4 Gitaxian Probe
Planeswalker
1 Tezzeret the Seeker
1 Bottled Cloister
1 Ghoulcaller's Bell
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
1 Pithing Needle
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Spellskite
1 Walking Ballista
2 Sai, Master Thopterist
I've never really had much issue with activating both Moxen with this list, and it beats the pants off of everything except the mirror and White Weenie.It's a little less explosive than the versions with Gemstone Caverns, but it's a bit more consistent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HF0_3hFMX-4&list=PL04lbfeNAaS8W-BSi1u7JHHM4YesThl2V
This video is a few years old, but the point still stands. Belcher requires a certain amount of free fast mana to be consistent enough to be a real deck. There is a mono-green version now that's sort of a meme deck because it's capable of very quick kills, but it's inconsistent. Raising the number of free fast mana spells in the format from 8 copies to 12 greatly increases the consistency of this strategy, especially if they end up going with the London Mulligan. There is a very real possibility that adding Chrome Mox to the format makes Belcher consistent enough to be a real player in the meta, and do we really need another turn 1 or 2 deck in Modern? No, we don't.
Even if it's not Belcher specifically, Chrome Mox would absolutely result in the format speeding up, because that's what free fast mana does. We need to go in the opposite direction, so Chrome Mox is a huge no-go for an unbanning.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
You know I like all those choices honestly. Great List.
I'm fine with those choices too. Some of those may not even see much play but could be good in the right deck. Generally I think those are about the right power level, or some could even be a bit stronger.
In my experience, Dread Return only needs Narcomoeba and Bloodghast as free creatures. GGT is great, but not required for combo dredge to function. Breakthrough is amazing, but Faithless Looting gets the job done. If they traded Bridge from Below to the banned list to get Dread Return off of it, it would still cause problems with cards like Lingering Souls to fuel very cheap reanimation. It's less of a problem than it is with Bridge, but it will always be an issue. I should clarify though- Manaless or Landless Dredge doesn't work well in Modern or NBLM and isn't really an issue. The only difference between Combo Dredge and Aggro Dredge is how many turns they expect to kill you over. Combo Dredge kills in 1 turn, basically. Aggro Dredge will kill you over 2-4 turns, but is way more resilient to hate.
While Dark Depths is obviously never coming off the banned list, I think you're vastly overselling how effective it is. It's strong, but it's pretty straight forward to counter: Ensnaring Bridge, Needle Hexmage/Stage, Path/exile spells, sac spells, or bounce spells. In my mind, the most problematic element about this card isn't the speed or the effect, it's the fact that basically any deck that runs lands can get rejigged to run the combo and still be efficient. That means you have to respect it, even if the actual effect isn't even that strong in the scheme of things.
I dunno. Without Ironworks, the only other cards that are actually problematic with the Artifact lands are Mox Opal, Cranial Plating, and Arcbound Ravager. Without Ravager and Plating, Affinity goes back to being Robots, which is a lot less impressive in my experience. Likewise, Jitte just doesn't really cut it. 9 times out of 10, unless you've got a hard lock on the opponent, you'll lose the turn you drop Jitte to a combo or a boardwipe. In my experience, the only really playable Equipment currently is Batterskull, and even then only as a combo piece in. Also, do not dismiss how strong Skullclamp is in "unfair" strategies, like Dredge, Affinity, and Elves. Clamp is just a fundamentally broken card.
Top is probably a little too much card selection to have with Fetches for Modern, I think. But in terms of power level, I agree that it's a very borderline case. That said, sitting through someone playing a deck with Top, but unfamiliar with how to use it is one of the most boring and aggrivating things about NBLM. At least with Eggs-like decks you can step away for a second to get a hot dog, but with a Top deck, everything you do has 30 seconds of hemming and hawing over the top three cards of their library before you can move on... only for your opponent to do it again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and... I digress. The funniest thing about it is that they'll often lose since they blow so much mana making sure they have the perfect order of their top 3, that they don't have enough to actually answer your play. It's kind of noob trap card in a way.
As for cards that would improve the Meta: Containment Priest is a must have. Having it in the format would help a lot, since it answers so many shenanigans.
Starcity is coming to my city so now I have to pick up modern again. Okay how awful is burn now?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Fixed it for you.