MTG Salvation

Thank God the 16 yr. old (Austin Collins) won with UR Phoenix instead of KCI! That would have been terrible.

I don't think anything needs a ban, nor would I ban anything. That said, Looting seems to meet every criteria Wizards has used since he initial banlist stabilized. It's obviously not as busted as Eldrazi got, but every other ban, it was something that Looting is just as guilty of, I suppose except for taking too long. I think most of the bans were crap and should be undone or switched for something else, but it really does seem to meet most of the criteria used for other bans, any one of which would get it in the crosshairs. I don't expect any bans until the current block is out of print because Wizards wants to sell packs, but as soon as that is over, I expect to see Looting or Phoenix banned. I hope it is looting, it's more damage now, but if they ban Phoenix, the next Phoenix will just break Looting again, over and over until the actual problem card gets hit.

Quote from cfusionpm »

Everything is fine. Modern is healthy. No need to comment further, I guess. I need to take a break from this thread...

I love you man. This seriously made me laugh and my eyes are still watering. Thanks.

Quote from gkourou »

Eldrazi winter had a 50% deck of the metagame. Stawp.

This is exaggerating. Eldrazi had 30% at most. Should it have had 50% (or higher)? Yes, most certainly, yes! But you can't force people to play the best deck, not close, if they feel their soul is being sold to the devil. (my soul already belonged to the devil after playing Griselbrand for 3 months straight)

What's happening right now in Phoenix vx Golgari is sick.

Eldrazi was the most winning deck ever since data has been collected for MTG. Free mimics into t2 TKS, t3 Reality Smasher are better than anything Phoenix or Dredge can play by a mile.

Quote from Drowsy Emperor »

What's happening right now in Phoenix vx Golgari is sick

I don't like it. Tireless Tracker is indeed one of my favorite Modern creatures, which is odd considering I'm a Combo player. But I don't like coming to the realization that Knightfall and Titanshift are not even close to as good a Tireless Tracker deck as GB Midrange. Sad times.

What was noticeable is that Phoenix nearly bounced back fully after being stripped down to near nothing, despite very good draws and plays by Orr.
...
The power discrepancy was even more prominent game 2. The drawing power of the deck fixes its somewhat one dimensional nature and lets it find the right thing at the right time.
...
What a blowout.

And there we have it, again. Phoenix wins Philly.

just curious, when was the last time a deck won every major tournanent over a single weekend.

Izzet Caw Caw just 3-0 2 gp’s and the scg open.

The entire Day2 decks+decklists (if they submitted online) for those interested. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRNjbzrDeyG6-NV3rvYNuyhQTCF1y9h52ufa-n9gZWP-COji9A_d0C_VMvv8WwDOLILuG79ZcV1adan/pubhtml?gid=1324917569&single=true&fbclid=IwAR1ofPRyTccBEfs3nFF29FVLjZfI9tDuXItZ-ZCWKSELGj4Fh8P7TaYPj4c

Quote from racerxen »

just curious, when was the last time a deck won every major tournanent over a single weekend.

Izzet Caw Caw just 3-0 2 gp’s and the scg open.

GDS won one of the GPs. Still a very dominant showing of Izzet Phoenix.

Quote from ktkenshinx »

Quote from cfusionpm »

Quote from whocansay »

Oh great, more Twin comparisons. Like Drowsy said, KCI wasn't banned to increase metagame diversity.

It's not unwarranted. Literally every justification WOTC gave against Twin can be levied against Phoenix. Every, single, one. Either Phoenix is fine, and the criteria for banning Twin was a load of crap. Or Phoenix will be banned at the next announcement.

Many of us already know that the Twin ban was in part a load of crap Wizards packaged to justify a PT shakeup ban. That's why they changed their ban timing in the future, made some public statements about Modern goals, and have been more conservative with bans ever since. Bringing Twin into this current conversation doesn't really have bearing on the Phoenix situation. TC Delver, DRS BGx, and Pod are all much better examples, given the level of Phoenix performance we are seeing now. The ban announcement is also after the MC, so the shakeup factor isn't even on the table.

THANK YOU! As a twin unban supporter that is really all I am looking for. Just acknowledgment that it was not completely justified.
Separate note: I see lots of twin / Phoenix comparison personally, but I named 3 of the 4 decks you named for comparison too. Only the probe ban supports a faithless looting ban. Many other bannings suggest a narrower banning like Phoenix itself, thing or manamorphose. Probably we'll see a banning in May but we may see nothing until after MH is released.
Also, this is not eldrazi winter, but it could become something like that if it gets much bigger. I agree right now the percentage of the field discussion is closer to what ktkenshink listed above, all of which got a ban.

Legend has it that gkourou will still tell you modern is the best it’s ever been.

Quote from Renegade Rallier »

Legend has it that gkourou will still tell you modern is the best it’s ever been.

I partially agree with him though. I literally only found the Eldrazi Winter meta to be the only unplayable one.

Being better than eldrazi winter is a low bar.

The only thing I find a bit odd is that it seems like the meta before Izzet Phoenix was somehow pretty good? I might be misremembering, but UW and UWR were both top 8. I think spirits was the best deck [kci was maybe the "real" best though], and BG was top 8 as well. Dredge was around 3rd. Hardened scales and Burn also hanging out. Storm//Titan//Valakut randomly winning tournies

It doesn't seem immediately obvious to me why UR phoenix has forced all the more interactive decks out of the metagame. If anything, the UW matchup looks pretty good for UW? I've only played like 8 total games in that matchup recently though.

SCG Open results are now in as well with Phoenix also placing first there. Man what a weekend with phoenix placing First, First and Second across three major tournaments

UW and UWR can contend with KCI (and some of the decks it "brings" along with it) better than it can with Phoenix? Not sure. Burn got good tools, but presumably got killed by Dredge's free Lightning Helix.

Quote from cfusionpm »

Quote from ktkenshinx »

Quote from cfusionpm »

Quote from whocansay »

Oh great, more Twin comparisons. Like Drowsy said, KCI wasn't banned to increase metagame diversity.

It's not unwarranted. Literally every justification WOTC gave against Twin can be levied against Phoenix. Every, single, one. Either Phoenix is fine, and the criteria for banning Twin was a load of crap. Or Phoenix will be banned at the next announcement.

Many of us already know that the Twin ban was in part a load of crap Wizards packaged to justify a PT shakeup ban. That's why they changed their ban timing in the future, made some public statements about Modern goals, and have been more conservative with bans ever since. Bringing Twin into this current conversation doesn't really have bearing on the Phoenix situation. TC Delver, DRS BGx, and Pod are all much better examples, given the level of Phoenix performance we are seeing now. The ban announcement is also after the MC, so the shakeup factor isn't even on the table.

All that does is further support a ban. Do you feel Phoenix should be banned?

There are 3 more GP and an MC before the May ban update. If this current trend continues, then something needs to be banned.

Re: Eldrazi Winter comparisons
I don't understand why people keep mentioning or thinking about Eldrazi Winter in Phoenix discussions. The comparison is not even close. Eldrazi was approaching 40% of GP Day 2 numbers when Eye got banned. One GP saw it at 47%. It averaged 5 T8 slots in the 4 major events that happened during its run. For more on the unprecedented, outrageous, and almost comical Eldrazi dominance, I encourage people to read through my old 2016 articles that documented the disaster:
http://modernnexus.com/sifting-through-the-grand-prix-eldrazi-rubble/
http://modernnexus.com/modern-metagame-breakdown-2516-362016/

Phoenix does not remotely compare to Eldrazi Winter by any metric I have seen or know about. That said, it does compare very well to previous metagame diversity violators like Pod, TC Delver, DRS BGx, and BBE Jund. I think people are so appalled with the current Phoenix dominance that they are jumping to the most hyperbolic comparison they can think of (Eldrazi). But really, this is probably just another Pod/Delver/BGx situation that we've dealt with in four previous decks throughout Modern history. Remember that Phoenix was still only 21% collectively of just the weekend's events (https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernMagic/comments/b27w1z/combined_day_2_metagame_percentages_from_bilbao/). And that includes an SCG event, which we have no reason to believe Wizards cares about, and excludes data from previous GP that would undoubtedly be considered in a banlist discussion.

If people want something banned from Phoenix specifically, look to these past examples of similarly dominant decks (Pod, DRS BGx, TC Delver, etc.). Don't look to Twin (a much lower share because of a PT shakeup factor), don't look to Eldrazi (which was almost twice as bad), and don't look to previous cries for bans that didn't pan out (Stirrings, Opal, GDS, Humans, and other Modern topics never reached this current Phoenix level).

Given that Careful Study was already regarded as a strong card, I've long wondered why they felt the need to add the flashback to Faithless Looting.

...uh-oh. What if Careful Study is in Modern Horizons?

Ktkenshinx, I agree with most everything you just said except for at the very end you said to not look at.twin for comparison. I understand what happened with twin very well. (with the pt shack up, it had won two pt before and their were several varients taking up descent Meta game share and so on.) I think we should compare this to twin as much as those others. The two cant help but draw comparisons. Pheonix is a resilient UR shell that kills quickly, cantrips a lot, controls the board (with bolt, lightning axe and thing in the ice instead of bolt, remand and cryptics) before winning with a difficult to deal with threat and is generally called the best deck in the format during its time. That sounds alot like twin to me. Twins meta game share was lower than this however, but I see enough similarities and minor enough differences that make me think it makes for a decent enough comparison. I agree the other decks you named are good comparisons (except TC delver, TC was broken and deserved what it got. DTT we could discuss), but I think twin fits in this discussion too. The probe ban also fits here if we are targeting faithless looting.

My question boils down to: I see enough to compare pheonix to twin as well as those other decks, so would you please expand on why twin is not a good enough comparison on par with the other decks you named?

Quote from metalmusic_4 »

Ktkenshinx, I agree with most everything you just said except for at the very end you said to not look at.twin for comparison. I understand what happened with twin very well. (with the pt shack up, it had won two pt before and their were several varients taking up descent Meta game share and so on.) I think we should compare this to twin as much as those others. The two cant help but draw comparisons. Pheonix is a resilient UR shell that kills quickly, cantrips a lot, controls the board (with bolt, lightning axe and thing in the ice instead of bolt, remand and cryptics) before winning with a difficult to deal with threat and is generally called the best deck in the format during its time. That sounds alot like twin to me. Twins meta game share was lower than this however, but I see enough similarities and minor enough differences that make me think it makes for a decent enough comparison. I agree the other decks you named are good comparisons (except TC delver, TC was broken and deserved what it got. DTT we could discuss), but I think twin fits in this discussion too. The probe ban also fits here if we are targeting faithless looting.

My question boils down to: I see enough to compare pheonix to twin as well as those other decks, so would you please expand on why twin is not a good enough comparison on par with the other decks you named?

You can certainly compare the decks on function, role, and play style. The banning comparison just isn't very strong because Phoenix's performance seems to be exceeding Twin territory and entering Pod, TC, and DRS territory. Just use those clearer comparisons. There's also no secondary PT shakeup factor at work in a potential Phoenix-targeted ban, in stark contrast to the Twin case. This is almost necessarily true if for no other reason than that the ban date will literally be after the PT. We actually saw decks hit Twin shares in the past and avoid a ban, especially in a short window. But we have never seen decks sustain current Phoenix numbers for even a 3-4 month period and survive a ban update. TC Delver is a perfect example of a URx deck dominating due to new tech in a 3-4 month period, hitting that 20%+ range, and then getting a ban. Use those better and cleaner TC, Pod, DRS, and BBE examples, not the muddled and messy Twin one.

If the premise is that it shares a ton of characteristics with Twin, but actually has MORE dominant numbers in line with more egregious decks, then the only logical conclusion is it will be banned. Or Wizards finally tells us that this is just "Who's line is it anyway" where the rules are made up and the points don't matter. And they spit in the face of everyone who has ever bought and played Twin.

That’s happened many times. Premium versions of Reserved List cards being one of those times.

They get away with it because people don’t want to walk away from an investment... well, and that the game is such a blast to play.

I am curious, if it is banned, what will they ban? Faithless Looting and Arclight Phoenix seem to be the only plausible choices, but which one?