The only deck I can imagine SFM would 'slot in' would be the UW Midrange that is preached about by NxtLvlMage (I think thats his tag) on Twitter, and even then you are making adjustments to account for the bad equipment you have in your deck, to try and make SFM good.
As Wraith (I believe) said, the Equipment available isnt even Modern playable right now. Maro is on record as saying nothing will EVER be designed to be better than the Swords, and this is a 1/2 creature with Summoning Sickness, that brings ARTIFACTS which literally every single tier level deck can already, and is already, accounting for because if you do not, you lose to Affinity, and KCI, and probably Hollow Boys.
Pro's told me Jace was the end of Modern and I laughed. I will accept the words of the grinders in this forum, and a select (sub 5) number of people on Twitter + Here, before I EVER believe what a 'pro' thinks about Modern.
My stance is that the most powerful things she is absolutely capable of are objectively weaker than the things capable of nearly every other top deck. And it's not even really close.
For a change I completely agree with cfusionpm. What SFM is doing is not really close to what other decks are doing atm.
Is it possible that her effect will be so much higher in power level than everything in a given meta with the current card pool? I doubt it. If we ever find ourselves in a miracle world where midrange fights are the norm and the dominant decks, SFM will probably be a beast, but not because of her power level, but because there will be new midrange tools that will have elevated these decks to the next level, and she naturally works well in them.
I don't think SFM will ever be the reason to push midrange decks to the next level however. The same was and is true for Jace. Only when we got some new control tools Jace became (slightly) relevant. Control however would have been in a better state despite Jace. SfA, Teferi and Field of Ruin are the main reasons that control is now more viable, and Jace happens to slot in there.
If we get, let's say, an amazing generic answer in UB and a better thoughtseize (lol), then SFM might work in a midrange Esper deck.
Well guys why not unban Skullclamp? It's not even that strong. Would suck against Turn 3 KCI Kill or Storm. And drawing two cards for 1 mana and you have to kill a creature so you are only neting 1 card, seems really weak in a world of flipped Thing in the Ice plus double Phoenix or triple Hollow One. Plus literally everyone is playing artifact removal.
lol just watched Professor's prediction for best cards in modern, first few minutes pure KCI bashing lol...
probably not great for WOTC to have their biggest youtuber savaging their modern ban process.
Well guys why not unban Skullclamp? It's not even that strong. Would suck against Turn 3 KCI Kill or Storm. And drawing two cards for 1 mana and you have to kill a creature so you are only neting 1 card, seems really weak in a world of flipped Thing in the Ice plus double Phoenix or triple Hollow One. Plus literally everyone is playing artifact removal.
So Skullclamp should really not be banned.
You do see the difference between that and Stoneforge, right? The payoff for Skullclamp is a blistering fast combo kill or whatever else you need. The best possible payoff for SFM is a creature that is hopelessly outclassed by either of the major payoffs Tron goes for on the same turn. Let's say you stick a Batterskull on turn 3, and I can't remove it for 2-3 turns. Neat, I'm still out of Bolt range, and I have probably been doing my own thing and you aren't doing so hot. That game still goes to turn 6-7 without blocks. SFM is a good card, Batterskull is a very good play, it's just that unlike Skullclamp, it doesn't add any angle to Modern that isn't already running around.
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im assuming its just rhetoric rather than an actual advocacy of a skullclamp unban. the hyperbole showcases the glaring flaw in claims that a card would be fine purely based on 'well x deck can do y, therefore z card is fine'. since it completely ignores context.
you could make a similar argument for a card like deathrite shaman. 'its so easy to kill, especially in a creature-centric format like modern, and its so weak compared to [insert list of whatever other current decks are doing]'.
obviously SFM is going to look weak compared to stuff like getting grapeshot for 20 on turn 3-4. just saying so doesnt really tell us much.
if they really think skullclamp should be unbanned...then yeah, please go away.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
What blistering fast combo kill is there with Skullclamp? I'm really curious.
Skullclamp does not impact the board and gets outclassed by a lot of stuff tron does. O-stone destroys everything.
Skullclamp and Jitte should absolutely be unbanned because they do nothing against combo and are very slow and bad vs tron.
Theoretically: Dredge (Dredging 40+ cards on turn 2 with it by using SSG and finishing off the opponent via Bloodghast + Creeping Chill)
Realistcally: Elves (Heritage Druid, would allow a turn 2 kill), Goblins (Skirk Prospector) and Affinity (Ravager, Memnite, Signal Pest and co)
Where it would be also REALLY good: Pyromancer.deck, Mentor (same idea as Mancer, just a tad slower but more power), different hyper aggro decks (8-Whack e.g., but I doubt it would be that good of an card in that deck).
I know, that this was an hyperbole of you, just wanted to point out the potential decks where Clamp would be a slam dunk . At least the most absurd cards to abuse along Clamp are banned, so it is something
Going back to the initial question of: "What would a SFM unban do to the format"?
Based on the testing down by Modern Nexus a while ago, my educated guess is the following: It would push already honest aggro/tempo decks (things like Meerfolk, Humans, Spirits and co) more out of the metagame while doing little to nothing vs the hyper aggro decks (things like Phoenix or Affinity). Hence, with this thought I wouldn't really would want to unban that card, since it is good against those decks which are not good atm while being not good against the decks which see play. Why? Cause the current metagame is not sustainable. The pendulum will swing back again and suddenly SFM might rain supreme against THE premium aggro decks which might split the format apart (in theory).
Than again, I would like to see a boatload of cards unbanned, so I'm in the "unban stuff" camp while being fully aware, what those cards could do to the format.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.
Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:
I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.
SFM is only as good as the things she can tutor up. We don't have Jitte in this format, so she's considerably less powerful in Modern than she is in Legacy, where she's only okay. She was actually fine in Standard even, until they printed Batterskull. SFM tutoring up and putting Batterskull into play potentially on turn 3 was too powerful for Standard, but is it too powerful for Modern? I've yet to see a convincing argument that it would be.
As to Kathal's point, I agree that I don't think it would do much against a lot of the aggro/combo decks. In my testing with the card against Dredge, in particular, she was helpful if the Dredge player stumbled a bit and I got the germ token in to attack, but she was too slow against their better draws. However, even if I don't think she really addresses a format problem, I don't think she should remain banned if we're pretty confident that she fits within the framework of Modern's power level.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
SFM is only as good as the things she can tutor up. We don't have Jitte in this format, so she's considerably less powerful in Modern than she is in Legacy, where she's only okay. She was actually fine in Standard even, until they printed Batterskull. SFM tutoring up and putting Batterskull into play potentially on turn 3 was too powerful for Standard, but is it too powerful for Modern? I've yet to see a convincing argument that it would be.
Just want to add that Brainstorm is another card that makes playing equipment worthwhile, or at the very least, much less clunky with regards to deck construction. Irrelevant or uncastable equipment can be brainstormed and shuffled away, exchanging them for a different set of cards. The earliest we can do something similar in Modern is after resolving a Jace. IMO it actually makes a huge difference in games where having 1 or 2 equipment in hand instead of action spells are going to cause some number of game losses.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Jitte and SFM would probably become format defining. Creature decks have to run jittes, combat matchups become a game of who sticks a jitte. It just screws with combat math too much. There're whole minigames in legacy about thinking up ways to deny Jitte counters.
I don't think that's something I want to see. At least not together. One at a time please
The main reason why Equipment do not see any play at all anymore is quite easy: Planeswalker
Most equipment which would (and did) see play either where a "finisher" (Runechanter's Pike) or provided utility (Swords e.g.). Planeswalker fill now those roles, a Gideon, Ally of Zendikar will close to always be a faster and more reliable finisher, Jace, the Mind Sculptor will "always" provide more utility than a Sword. Hence, why play equipment when you can just play a Planeswalker instead?
So, generally speaking, equipment only see play, IF it is broken and IF you can tutor it.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.
Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:
I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.
Looking forward to feedback!
As always you never disappoint.
Something interesting things in the matchup section that surprised me or reaffirmed my feelings.
For example Jeskai having that poor of a Burn matchup in this data set surprised me. I mean that's one of the few matchups where Lightning Helix can truly shine.
UW pulling way ahead of Jeskai on the other hand isn't surprising. I already said it before but the sacrifices you make in Jeskai are questionable IMO. The difference in the Tron matchup being the best example of it and it's not like UW actually has trouble with heavy creature decks as this shows. I mean Terminus is there for a reason. Spirits is an exception but then Jeskai is still only dead even against it in this data set so yeah whatever.
Funnily enough this even shows why the last GP Top 8 probably turned out the way it did. Spirits does pretty good against KCI but it in turn gets picked apart by the Phoenix decks and indeed there was no Spirits in the Top 16 while 4 Phoenix decks were so KCI got one of it's bad matchups cleaned away all the way to the top. How convenient.
What's the takeaway of that? Blame Arclight Phoenix for everything bad
I'm interested on how Spirits will adapt to get a better UR Phoenix match-up, I'm thinking about Deputy of Detention especially, which could replace those Reflector Mages they play (since it is just straight up better).
Otherwise, the data is basically what I expected, just a little bit surprised how good UW Control is.
Greetings,
Kathal
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What I play or have:
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Skullclamp could be okay-ish if there was no dredge or affinity. Still annoying, much like mental misstep.
I guess stoneforge and twin are okay to come in the format.
Still not a huge fan of the bloodbraid elf unban. just a personal preference though.
maybe something will happen with kci.
Skullclamp could be okay-ish if there was no dredge or affinity. Still annoying, much like mental misstep.
I guess stoneforge and twin are okay to come in the format.
Still not a huge fan of the bloodbraid elf unban. just a personal preference though.
maybe something will happen with kci.
The unban that did absolutely nothing for jund except for a three month span?
I thought I posted this in the ban/unban thread but oh well.
No for reals, I do find it annoying. It didn't boost fair grindy decks that much and only helped titanshift and ponza. It's a nice addition to traditional zoo builds but that's it.
I thought I posted this in the ban/unban thread but oh well.
No for reals, I do find it annoying. It didn't boost fair grindy decks that much and only helped titanshift and ponza. It's a nice addition to traditional zoo builds but that's it.
Yeah, Titanshift and Ponza....I think we could use some more help.
UW being better against Burn than Jeskai is probably going to surprise a lot of people, but having played the UW side a lot, I believe it. Helix gives you time against Burn, but they're eventually going to draw more burn spells and kill you if you don't kill them quickly. UW can actually turn the corner and take control of the game in a way that Jeskai can't. Beyond that, most UW lists were running 1-3 copies of Timely Reinforcements in their 75, sometimes even with a copy or two main, and the angels in the sideboard are just lights out against Burn if you get to untap with them. I've even had games where I just raced them with a Clique because they side out their Searing Blazes against UW.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
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As Wraith (I believe) said, the Equipment available isnt even Modern playable right now. Maro is on record as saying nothing will EVER be designed to be better than the Swords, and this is a 1/2 creature with Summoning Sickness, that brings ARTIFACTS which literally every single tier level deck can already, and is already, accounting for because if you do not, you lose to Affinity, and KCI, and probably Hollow Boys.
Pro's told me Jace was the end of Modern and I laughed. I will accept the words of the grinders in this forum, and a select (sub 5) number of people on Twitter + Here, before I EVER believe what a 'pro' thinks about Modern.
That said, I doubt we even get an unban.
Spirits
Is it possible that her effect will be so much higher in power level than everything in a given meta with the current card pool? I doubt it. If we ever find ourselves in a miracle world where midrange fights are the norm and the dominant decks, SFM will probably be a beast, but not because of her power level, but because there will be new midrange tools that will have elevated these decks to the next level, and she naturally works well in them.
I don't think SFM will ever be the reason to push midrange decks to the next level however. The same was and is true for Jace. Only when we got some new control tools Jace became (slightly) relevant. Control however would have been in a better state despite Jace. SfA, Teferi and Field of Ruin are the main reasons that control is now more viable, and Jace happens to slot in there.
If we get, let's say, an amazing generic answer in UB and a better thoughtseize (lol), then SFM might work in a midrange Esper deck.
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
So Skullclamp should really not be banned.
probably not great for WOTC to have their biggest youtuber savaging their modern ban process.
You do see the difference between that and Stoneforge, right? The payoff for Skullclamp is a blistering fast combo kill or whatever else you need. The best possible payoff for SFM is a creature that is hopelessly outclassed by either of the major payoffs Tron goes for on the same turn. Let's say you stick a Batterskull on turn 3, and I can't remove it for 2-3 turns. Neat, I'm still out of Bolt range, and I have probably been doing my own thing and you aren't doing so hot. That game still goes to turn 6-7 without blocks. SFM is a good card, Batterskull is a very good play, it's just that unlike Skullclamp, it doesn't add any angle to Modern that isn't already running around.
Skullclamp does not impact the board and gets outclassed by a lot of stuff tron does. O-stone destroys everything.
Skullclamp and Jitte should absolutely be unbanned because they do nothing against combo and are very slow and bad vs tron.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
you could make a similar argument for a card like deathrite shaman. 'its so easy to kill, especially in a creature-centric format like modern, and its so weak compared to [insert list of whatever other current decks are doing]'.
obviously SFM is going to look weak compared to stuff like getting grapeshot for 20 on turn 3-4. just saying so doesnt really tell us much.
if they really think skullclamp should be unbanned...then yeah, please go away.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That was my point. You wrote it way more eloquently then I ever could, sir.
Theoretically: Dredge (Dredging 40+ cards on turn 2 with it by using SSG and finishing off the opponent via Bloodghast + Creeping Chill)
Realistcally: Elves (Heritage Druid, would allow a turn 2 kill), Goblins (Skirk Prospector) and Affinity (Ravager, Memnite, Signal Pest and co)
Where it would be also REALLY good: Pyromancer.deck, Mentor (same idea as Mancer, just a tad slower but more power), different hyper aggro decks (8-Whack e.g., but I doubt it would be that good of an card in that deck).
I know, that this was an hyperbole of you, just wanted to point out the potential decks where Clamp would be a slam dunk . At least the most absurd cards to abuse along Clamp are banned, so it is something
Going back to the initial question of: "What would a SFM unban do to the format"?
Based on the testing down by Modern Nexus a while ago, my educated guess is the following: It would push already honest aggro/tempo decks (things like Meerfolk, Humans, Spirits and co) more out of the metagame while doing little to nothing vs the hyper aggro decks (things like Phoenix or Affinity). Hence, with this thought I wouldn't really would want to unban that card, since it is good against those decks which are not good atm while being not good against the decks which see play. Why? Cause the current metagame is not sustainable. The pendulum will swing back again and suddenly SFM might rain supreme against THE premium aggro decks which might split the format apart (in theory).
Than again, I would like to see a boatload of cards unbanned, so I'm in the "unban stuff" camp while being fully aware, what those cards could do to the format.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/2018-top-deck-performance-review/
It's a 2018 summary of all the compiled GP/SCG data we have about matchups and MWP. I'll publish to Reddit on Monday after incorporating feedback. I request that people keep this under wraps until it's finalized. Please note the limitations section and don't just parrot about how N isn't 10,000. Nothing drives me crazier.
Here are the summarized MWPs for top decks with N>300 from the past year with sample size and 95% confidence interval for the MWP:
KCI: 56.9% (N= 693, 53.2%-60.5%)
Dredge: 55.1% (N= 314, 49.6%-60.6%)
HS Affinity: 55% (N= 460, 50.5%-59.5%)
Bant Spirits: 53.9% (N= 323, 48.4%-59.3%)
Counters Company: 53.7% (N= 419, 48.9%-58.5%)
Humans: 51.8% (N= 1520, 49.3%-54.3%)
UW Control: 51.6% (N= 888, 48.3%-54.9%)
Gx Tron: 51.5% (N= 1026, 48.4%-54.5%)
Hollow One: 50.8% (N= 494, 46.4%-55.2%)
Storm: 50.1% (N= 425, 45.4%-54.9%)
Grixis Death’s Shadow: 50.1% (N= 485, 45.7%-54.6%)
Infect: 49.6% (N= 510, 45.3%-53.9%)
Burn: 49.6% (N= 1136, 46.7%-52.5%)
Jeskai Control: 48.4% (N= 833, 45%-51.8%)
Titanshift: 47% (N= 483, 42.5%-51.4%)
Jund: 46.3% (N= 734, 42.7%-49.9%)
Mardu Pyromancer: 46% (N= 678, 42.3%-49.8%)
Affinity: 44% (N= 609, 40.1%-47.9%)
I'm not going to try and translate the matchup win% matrix here because there's too much going on there. Check out the post for details about those matchups.
Looking forward to feedback!
As to Kathal's point, I agree that I don't think it would do much against a lot of the aggro/combo decks. In my testing with the card against Dredge, in particular, she was helpful if the Dredge player stumbled a bit and I got the germ token in to attack, but she was too slow against their better draws. However, even if I don't think she really addresses a format problem, I don't think she should remain banned if we're pretty confident that she fits within the framework of Modern's power level.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Just want to add that Brainstorm is another card that makes playing equipment worthwhile, or at the very least, much less clunky with regards to deck construction. Irrelevant or uncastable equipment can be brainstormed and shuffled away, exchanging them for a different set of cards. The earliest we can do something similar in Modern is after resolving a Jace. IMO it actually makes a huge difference in games where having 1 or 2 equipment in hand instead of action spells are going to cause some number of game losses.
I don't think that's something I want to see. At least not together. One at a time please
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Most equipment which would (and did) see play either where a "finisher" (Runechanter's Pike) or provided utility (Swords e.g.). Planeswalker fill now those roles, a Gideon, Ally of Zendikar will close to always be a faster and more reliable finisher, Jace, the Mind Sculptor will "always" provide more utility than a Sword. Hence, why play equipment when you can just play a Planeswalker instead?
So, generally speaking, equipment only see play, IF it is broken and IF you can tutor it.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
Looks like a ton of work. I'm just looking over all the sheets now, but thanks for this effort.
Spirits
As always you never disappoint.
Something interesting things in the matchup section that surprised me or reaffirmed my feelings.
For example Jeskai having that poor of a Burn matchup in this data set surprised me. I mean that's one of the few matchups where Lightning Helix can truly shine.
UW pulling way ahead of Jeskai on the other hand isn't surprising. I already said it before but the sacrifices you make in Jeskai are questionable IMO. The difference in the Tron matchup being the best example of it and it's not like UW actually has trouble with heavy creature decks as this shows. I mean Terminus is there for a reason. Spirits is an exception but then Jeskai is still only dead even against it in this data set so yeah whatever.
Funnily enough this even shows why the last GP Top 8 probably turned out the way it did. Spirits does pretty good against KCI but it in turn gets picked apart by the Phoenix decks and indeed there was no Spirits in the Top 16 while 4 Phoenix decks were so KCI got one of it's bad matchups cleaned away all the way to the top. How convenient.
What's the takeaway of that? Blame Arclight Phoenix for everything bad
Otherwise, the data is basically what I expected, just a little bit surprised how good UW Control is.
Greetings,
Kathal
Modern/Legacy
either funpolice (Delver, Deathcloud, UW Control) or the fun decks (especially those ft. Griselbrand)
I guess stoneforge and twin are okay to come in the format.
Still not a huge fan of the bloodbraid elf unban. just a personal preference though.
maybe something will happen with kci.
The unban that did absolutely nothing for jund except for a three month span?
Stop.
No for reals, I do find it annoying. It didn't boost fair grindy decks that much and only helped titanshift and ponza. It's a nice addition to traditional zoo builds but that's it.
Yeah, Titanshift and Ponza....I think we could use some more help.
Titanshift: 47% (N= 483, 42.5%-51.4%)
Ponza: 36.4% (N= 151, 28.7%-44.1%)
Spirits
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW