Does anyone happen to have on hand, an link or breakdown of 2018 Modern GP Top 8s by deck? Also the number of Top 8's for Twin in 2015? I'm looking, but I seem to see these number referenced frequently, I thought asking the group might be faster
I don't have the numbers off hand (I think it was around 18%), but KCI is currently lower than twin was IIRC. That assumes it something from KCI is banned on a competitive diversity angle as opposed to something else. Twin established a new floor for T8 "dominance," but we don't truly know where that floor is (it was widely considered 20% pre-twin).
*edit*
To clarify, I think the 18% included the PT and there were no team events at the time. WotC cited the PT among other reasons in their various ban rational, so as problematic as the PT data is compared to a GP, it is still a factor.
I believe it includes the PT at a minimum, but even 15% is higher than KCI. Again fundamentally we don't know where the floor is on the competitive diversity metric. Splinter Twin set a new minimum, but perhaps KCI is within their range. And to reiterate once again, this would be based on the metagame diversity metric. IF KCI gets the axe, it could be for a combination of grievances and perhaps sets some new precedents (similar to GGT and the "battle of sideboards")
Yeah, I think there is a different issue all together in that while the finally tally is greater, the meta share, and likely (ktk?) day 2 numbers for Twin where almost certainly much much much higher than KCI can even come close to.
If there is a Modern segment of the Pro Tour, and KCI is not touched before then, you better believe KCI will be flooding that event, as Twin did before it was banned.
I mean using your link, UR Twin alone, had more metagame than KCI does now.
Yeah, I think there is a different issue all together in that while the finally tally is greater, the meta share, and likely (ktk?) day 2 numbers for Twin where almost certainly much much much higher than KCI can even come close to.
If there is a Modern segment of the Pro Tour, and KCI is not touched before then, you better believe KCI will be flooding that event, as Twin did before it was banned.
I mean using your link, UR Twin alone, had more metagame than KCI does now.
Just looking at the 15 vs 18% thing, I noticed you include GP Omaha which was pre birthing pod ban vs the modern nexus article which omits that GP in the 2015 numbers (includes it in the 2014 data though) likely because banning of pod represented a clean "reset" point with much of the year still to go (Jan 11 date for GP Omaha). In a similar vein, if KCI gets hit at the next B&R announcement, GP Oakland shouldn't count towards 2019.
Wait, the GP was finished by a guy forfeiting? Welp, if anyone is curious as to why MtG as an esport is a joke, there it is.
And yeah, they played Game 1, story is the KCI guy needed to catch a flight so scooped the match after he lost game one. Not sure if true or not, I dont really care as I'm just here for the top 8 data anyway.
That Terminus ban suggestion was paaaaainful. I can't begin to imagine why someone would want to remove one of UWx's best weapons for fighting interactive decks when one of Modern's chief problems is a lack of effective answers. Thankfully, there's about a 0% chance Wizards is even considering a Terminus ban, so I'm not going to argue this point too strenuously.
If I'm predicting bans, I would predict Trawler, KCI, and Stirrings in that order. Also, an SFM unban. I am actively predicting that "No changes" will not happen, and am predicting that at least one card gets banned.
Context matters. Terminus was suggested together with a heavy list of Modern's top 'Offenders' by IdSurge. Nobody actually thinks this will happen.
Regardless, I stick by my statement that midrange will never have a solid foothold in Modern as long as Terminus is the sweeper of choice and it only gets stronger if Modern slows down.
That context did not justify the suggestion so there was no need to cite it. I also never claimed he thought it would happen and was very deliberate in calling it out as a "suggestion" he made, as well as something he "wants" ("desired" were his words). He also did not call them "offenders" as you suggest. He simply said to take off the top of the format to slow it down, and neither that context nor any other context I have seen legitimizes a Terminus ban suggestion.
Here are the Twin T8s for GP/PTs in 2015:
Deck N
Affinity 7
Grixis Control 2
UR Twin 9
Jeskai Twin 1
Titanshift 1
GW Aggro 1
Merfolk 3
Burn 6
Scapeshift 2
Lantern 1
Elves 2
Amulet Bloomn 1
Zoo 2
Gx Tron 1
Living End 1
Bogles 2
Jund 3
Abzan 6
Temur Twin 1
4C Company 1
Temur Delver 1
Grixis Twin 1
Grixis Delver 1
D&T 1
Abzan Company 1
Ad Naus 1
Grishoalbrand 1
Infect 1
Amulet Bloom 3
Wait, the GP was finished by a guy forfeiting? Welp, if anyone is curious as to why MtG as an esport is a joke, there it is.
And yeah, they played Game 1, story is the KCI guy needed to catch a flight so scooped the match after he lost game one. Not sure if true or not, I dont really care as I'm just here for the top 8 data anyway.
There was no flight. They're friends. Would you not give your friend Platinum status if you had nowhere to go (Hunter was Gold either way) with a possible win over 2nd place? The finals scoop kind of diminishes my Round 4 prediction to my friends that UR Phoenix would win this tournament. At least it does in their eyes, even if I tell them that I was correct in saying so.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
There was no flight. They're friends. Would you not give your friend Platinum status if you had nowhere to go with a possible win over 2nd place? The finals scoop kind of diminishes my Round 4 prediction to my friends that UR Phoenix would win this tournament. At least it does in their eyes, even if I tell them that I was correct in saying so.
Deck N
Affinity 7
Grixis Control 2
UR Twin 9
Jeskai Twin 1
Titanshift 1
GW Aggro 1
Merfolk 3
Burn 6
Scapeshift 2
Lantern 1
Elves 2
Amulet Bloomn 1
Zoo 2
Gx Tron 1
Living End 1
Bogles 2
Jund 3
Abzan 6
Temur Twin 1
4C Company 1
Temur Delver 1
Grixis Twin 1
Grixis Delver 1
D&T 1
Abzan Company 1
Ad Naus 1
Grishoalbrand 1
Infect 1
Amulet Bloom 3
So 18.75% of top 8 slots went to Twin KCI still has a way to go, but I don't think we have a great indication of where that T8 floor is (12? 15? 17%??) and perhaps T8 performance for a KCI ban only becomes part of the rational. It's 2018 "dominance" combined with difficulty sideboarding against, and logistical issues (unknown / unproven at this point) could cause it to get axed (strictly as an example).
If it helps your ego, Kassis had beaten two of the other KCI players to get to the finals, so he probably was going to win anyways. (He seemed to have a good grasp on what was needed for that matchup, he played it very well and got pretty lucky with a few T3 kills on the play.)
Deck N
Affinity 7
Grixis Control 2
UR Twin 9
Jeskai Twin 1
Titanshift 1
GW Aggro 1
Merfolk 3
Burn 6
Scapeshift 2
Lantern 1
Elves 2
Amulet Bloomn 1
Zoo 2
Gx Tron 1
Living End 1
Bogles 2
Jund 3
Abzan 6
Temur Twin 1
4C Company 1
Temur Delver 1
Grixis Twin 1
Grixis Delver 1
D&T 1
Abzan Company 1
Ad Naus 1
Grishoalbrand 1
Infect 1
Amulet Bloom 3
What a healthy and diverse format!
In all seriousness, this highlights how not-warping and not-detrimental Twin ever was. It's absolute best matchup, that it statistically crushed 70-30 (Affinity) is the second most successful deck, and there are nearly 30 different decks across the swath of Top 8s, ranging from control to tempo to aggro to multiple other combos. Can we stop fear-mongering about how Twin would destroy the format if it returned?
It's absolute best matchup, that it statistically crushed 70-30 (Affinity) is the second most successful deck, and there are nearly 30 different decks across the swath of Top 8s, ranging from control to tempo to aggro to multiple other combos. Can we stop fear-mongering about how Twin would destroy the format if it returned?
For all the doom sayers about Twin, nobody has addressed this bolded point, not once that I remember.
Unban it, leave it banned, I dont care, but until I see some arguments that address this, I'll continue to dismiss people who think Twin needs to stay banned for the format's health.
I think the assumed response to that is, we'll stop fear-mongering if you stop bringing it up.
Isn't Affinity's presence just a result of the fact that the sheer number of Twin decks wasn't ever oppressively high? Like Marshall was saying, even today you don't expect to face KCI more than 2 or 3 times in a tournament like a GP. Affinity decks could easily have made it to the T8 with 2 losses to Twin. I'm not claiming to have any memory of events that long ago, though.
I think the assumed response to that is, we'll stop fear-mongering if you stop bringing it up.
Isn't Affinity's presence just a result of the fact that the sheer number of Twin decks wasn't ever oppressively high? Like Marshall was saying, even today you don't expect to face KCI more than 2 or 3 times in a tournament like a GP. Affinity decks could easily have made it to the T8 with 2 losses to Twin. I'm not claiming to have any memory of events that long ago, though.
That Terminus ban suggestion was paaaaainful. I can't begin to imagine why someone would want to remove one of UWx's best weapons for fighting interactive decks when one of Modern's chief problems is a lack of effective answers. Thankfully, there's about a 0% chance Wizards is even considering a Terminus ban, so I'm not going to argue this point too strenuously.
If I'm predicting bans, I would predict Trawler, KCI, and Stirrings in that order. Also, an SFM unban. I am actively predicting that "No changes" will not happen, and am predicting that at least one card gets banned.
Context matters. Terminus was suggested together with a heavy list of Modern's top 'Offenders' by IdSurge. Nobody actually thinks this will happen.
Regardless, I stick by my statement that midrange will never have a solid foothold in Modern as long as Terminus is the sweeper of choice and it only gets stronger if Modern slows down.
That context did not justify the suggestion so there was no need to cite it. I also never claimed he thought it would happen and was very deliberate in calling it out as a "suggestion" he made, as well as something he "wants" ("desired" were his words). He also did not call them "offenders" as you suggest. He simply said to take off the top of the format to slow it down, and neither that context nor any other context I have seen legitimizes a Terminus ban suggestion.
Yeah he didn't call them "offenders". I used the word because those cards mentioned have been debated to death over in this thread and at least the 2 previous ones about whether they should remain legal in Modern. Is it not clearly implied enough? You've been around long enough, you're not that thick. Are we really quibbling over semantics and going down the route of arguing exact words?
Yes you were very deliberate in calling it something he "wants" while missing out the part where he "wants" it in addition to commonly debated ban candidates like stirrings, looting, creeping chill etc.
Why does the context not justify the suggestion? If hypothetical bannings to stirrings, looting, creeping chill etc did happen to allow slower fair decks to find a place in the meta, then Terminus definitely deserves to be looked at.
You're definitely right in one thing, Terminus is a great weapon, so much so that it invalidates midrange interactive strategies.
Go try it, play a fair midrange deck vs Terminus. Feel free to experience the context for yourself.
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Meh, in the end its just another whatever. I would be surprised if ktk has not at least played the match up a few times and is well aware of what was intended, but any chance to take a shot he will take it.
Regardless, lets discuss the fact Spirits got shellacked. Phoenix too good for them? I get this feeling that that little mana dork (Noble) just isnt resilient enough in the face of main deck Gut Shots...
Meh, in the end its just another whatever. I would be surprised if ktk has not at least played the match up a few times and is well aware of what was intended, but any chance to take a shot he will take it.
Regardless, lets discuss the fact Spirits got shellacked. Phoenix too good for them? I get this feeling that that little mana dork (Noble) just isnt resilient enough in the face of main deck Gut Shots...
That's actually a really fair point, I'm not sure it explains how so few of them advanced throughout Day 2. I'd be interested in seeing where all the Spirits players ended up by the end of the day. I could see some falling to the various Phoenix decks, but there were 29 copies at the start of Day 2, and not a single copy in the Top 8.
Yikes, yeah I guess Phoenix just ended up being much better. Does Spirits have a bad matchup against KCI? I can't really see it being that great for Spirits, they only really get Stony Silence and don't really have as fast of a clock as Phoenix.
I think it must be Phoenix, which can smash through quite a bit of what Spirits tries to do. You want to ramp? No. Oh you have some flyers? I can block forever if I need, and here's the Thing to bounce your Team.
Ancient Grudge your Vial, and its a massive gg.
The KCI match up SHOULD be good. I only played against it a few times (UW, not Bant) and didnt have any issues with it.
Yeah, spirits not having 3 mana on turn 2 or 4 mana turn 3 is really detrimental to their game plan.
But let's talk about the most important banning announcement from today: Alex Bertoncini. He was hit with a lifetime ban after he apparently found a Hardened Scales off of his Ancient Stirrings during a PTQ at GP Oakland. Seems legit. Good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
Yeah, spirits not having 3 mana on turn 2 or 4 mana turn 3 is really detrimental to their game plan.
But let's talk about the most important banning announcement from today: Alex Bertoncini. He was hit with a lifetime ban after he apparently found a Hardened Scales off of his Ancient Stirrings during a PTQ at GP Oakland. Seems legit. Good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
lol I almost cant blame him, the card can find everything from a Planeswalker, to an artifact, to a creature, to a land, to a sorcery, to an instant.
for sure. honestly if sensei's top didnt have those other problems attached i think terminus would have been the appropriate ban to nerf the legacy miracles deck.
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one thing id like to point out while the topic is on spirits is that the shift in community belief that 'spirits is just a better version of humans' is only a partial truth. spirits is only generally better, and much of that equity is gained in its improved game against removal heavy decks (sideboard cards do a lot too). so a net positive through achieving a more evenly distributed matchup spread.
for example just because both have disruption doesnt mean mausoleum wanderer, path, and better sideboard cards is effective against the same things as main deck thalia, freebooter, and meddling mage.
therefore it stands to reason that as people shifted from humans to spirits, the format would shift as well.
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I'm specifically referring to the numbers from this Modern Nexus Article
I believe it includes the PT at a minimum, but even 15% is higher than KCI. Again fundamentally we don't know where the floor is on the competitive diversity metric. Splinter Twin set a new minimum, but perhaps KCI is within their range. And to reiterate once again, this would be based on the metagame diversity metric. IF KCI gets the axe, it could be for a combination of grievances and perhaps sets some new precedents (similar to GGT and the "battle of sideboards")
If there is a Modern segment of the Pro Tour, and KCI is not touched before then, you better believe KCI will be flooding that event, as Twin did before it was banned.
I mean using your link, UR Twin alone, had more metagame than KCI does now.
Spirits
Just looking at the 15 vs 18% thing, I noticed you include GP Omaha which was pre birthing pod ban vs the modern nexus article which omits that GP in the 2015 numbers (includes it in the 2014 data though) likely because banning of pod represented a clean "reset" point with much of the year still to go (Jan 11 date for GP Omaha). In a similar vein, if KCI gets hit at the next B&R announcement, GP Oakland shouldn't count towards 2019.
And yeah, they played Game 1, story is the KCI guy needed to catch a flight so scooped the match after he lost game one. Not sure if true or not, I dont really care as I'm just here for the top 8 data anyway.
Spirits
That context did not justify the suggestion so there was no need to cite it. I also never claimed he thought it would happen and was very deliberate in calling it out as a "suggestion" he made, as well as something he "wants" ("desired" were his words). He also did not call them "offenders" as you suggest. He simply said to take off the top of the format to slow it down, and neither that context nor any other context I have seen legitimizes a Terminus ban suggestion.
Here are the Twin T8s for GP/PTs in 2015:
Deck N
Affinity 7
Grixis Control 2
UR Twin 9
Jeskai Twin 1
Titanshift 1
GW Aggro 1
Merfolk 3
Burn 6
Scapeshift 2
Lantern 1
Elves 2
Amulet Bloomn 1
Zoo 2
Gx Tron 1
Living End 1
Bogles 2
Jund 3
Abzan 6
Temur Twin 1
4C Company 1
Temur Delver 1
Grixis Twin 1
Grixis Delver 1
D&T 1
Abzan Company 1
Ad Naus 1
Grishoalbrand 1
Infect 1
Amulet Bloom 3
Yep, and the 2nd place finisher was scooped into the top 8 in Round 15 by a local player.
There was no flight. They're friends. Would you not give your friend Platinum status if you had nowhere to go (Hunter was Gold either way) with a possible win over 2nd place? The finals scoop kind of diminishes my Round 4 prediction to my friends that UR Phoenix would win this tournament. At least it does in their eyes, even if I tell them that I was correct in saying so.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Thats a bit of a yikes to me then.
Spirits
So 18.75% of top 8 slots went to Twin KCI still has a way to go, but I don't think we have a great indication of where that T8 floor is (12? 15? 17%??) and perhaps T8 performance for a KCI ban only becomes part of the rational. It's 2018 "dominance" combined with difficulty sideboarding against, and logistical issues (unknown / unproven at this point) could cause it to get axed (strictly as an example).
What a healthy and diverse format!
In all seriousness, this highlights how not-warping and not-detrimental Twin ever was. It's absolute best matchup, that it statistically crushed 70-30 (Affinity) is the second most successful deck, and there are nearly 30 different decks across the swath of Top 8s, ranging from control to tempo to aggro to multiple other combos. Can we stop fear-mongering about how Twin would destroy the format if it returned?
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
For all the doom sayers about Twin, nobody has addressed this bolded point, not once that I remember.
Unban it, leave it banned, I dont care, but until I see some arguments that address this, I'll continue to dismiss people who think Twin needs to stay banned for the format's health.
Spirits
Isn't Affinity's presence just a result of the fact that the sheer number of Twin decks wasn't ever oppressively high? Like Marshall was saying, even today you don't expect to face KCI more than 2 or 3 times in a tournament like a GP. Affinity decks could easily have made it to the T8 with 2 losses to Twin. I'm not claiming to have any memory of events that long ago, though.
You are correct. Twin was never oppressive.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Spirits
Yeah he didn't call them "offenders". I used the word because those cards mentioned have been debated to death over in this thread and at least the 2 previous ones about whether they should remain legal in Modern. Is it not clearly implied enough? You've been around long enough, you're not that thick. Are we really quibbling over semantics and going down the route of arguing exact words?
Yes you were very deliberate in calling it something he "wants" while missing out the part where he "wants" it in addition to commonly debated ban candidates like stirrings, looting, creeping chill etc.
Why does the context not justify the suggestion? If hypothetical bannings to stirrings, looting, creeping chill etc did happen to allow slower fair decks to find a place in the meta, then Terminus definitely deserves to be looked at.
You're definitely right in one thing, Terminus is a great weapon, so much so that it invalidates midrange interactive strategies.
Go try it, play a fair midrange deck vs Terminus. Feel free to experience the context for yourself.
Regardless, lets discuss the fact Spirits got shellacked. Phoenix too good for them? I get this feeling that that little mana dork (Noble) just isnt resilient enough in the face of main deck Gut Shots...
Spirits
That's actually a really fair point, I'm not sure it explains how so few of them advanced throughout Day 2. I'd be interested in seeing where all the Spirits players ended up by the end of the day. I could see some falling to the various Phoenix decks, but there were 29 copies at the start of Day 2, and not a single copy in the Top 8.
Ancient Grudge your Vial, and its a massive gg.
The KCI match up SHOULD be good. I only played against it a few times (UW, not Bant) and didnt have any issues with it.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)But let's talk about the most important banning announcement from today: Alex Bertoncini. He was hit with a lifetime ban after he apparently found a Hardened Scales off of his Ancient Stirrings during a PTQ at GP Oakland. Seems legit. Good riddance. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Ehhhhh I see where you are going there, but thats like saying Creeping Chill is too good. The sum is greater than the parts and all that.
lol I almost cant blame him, the card can find everything from a Planeswalker, to an artifact, to a creature, to a land, to a sorcery, to an instant.
Why not a Green Enchantment?
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)for example just because both have disruption doesnt mean mausoleum wanderer, path, and better sideboard cards is effective against the same things as main deck thalia, freebooter, and meddling mage.
therefore it stands to reason that as people shifted from humans to spirits, the format would shift as well.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)