For a long time, I’ve thought that Bloodghast was the problematic card within the Dredge deck, even when people were clamoring for a GGT ban. IF (and that’s a big IF) the deck does require a ban, I think Bloodghast has always been the card that needed to go.
Bloodghast is the card that makes the recurring threat engine work, since it gives the deck an on demand way to bring back ALL of their threats back. It’s the primary card that makes standard, non-exiling removal a joke against the deck. Without it, it makes the entire Dredge mechanic a much less offensive modern, since a Narcomoeba hit the only thing that can put their grave back into play.
Creeping Chill just gives the deck another form of inevitability that cannot be interacted with and I doubt it would be a huge problem if the deck didn’t also have a highly reliable method of keeping the board pressure on.
I also have felt the deck would be fine with GGT IFBloodghast was gone. Bloodghast is what makes them so resilient and while grave troll provided an end game inc ase the weenies cant get there without the bloodghast grave troll wouldn't end the game nearly as fast due to the chip damage those pesky ghasts provide.
For a long time, I’ve thought that Bloodghast was the problematic card within the Dredge deck, even when people were clamoring for a GGT ban. IF (and that’s a big IF) the deck does require a ban, I think Bloodghast has always been the card that needed to go.
Bloodghast is the card that makes the recurring threat engine work, since it gives the deck an on demand way to bring back ALL of their threats back. It’s the primary card that makes standard, non-exiling removal a joke against the deck. Without it, it makes the entire Dredge mechanic a much less offensive modern, since a Narcomoeba hit the only thing that can put their grave back into play.
Creeping Chill just gives the deck another form of inevitability that cannot be interacted with and I doubt it would be a huge problem if the deck didn’t also have a highly reliable method of keeping the board pressure on.
But no one cared about Dredge pre Creeping Chill. Creeping Chill put the deck into tier 1. Don't kill the entire deck. Don't hit other decks like Bridgevine and Hallow one because of Dredge. I understand Blooghast is the best card in the deck, but it should be Creeping Chill to be banned if anything
I don’t think that this is a good way to evaluate whether a card is problematic or not.
Heck, no one cared about Dredge before Prized Amalgam came out. That was when it was decided that GGT was a broken Magic card. Become Immense seemed like it was a problem… but Gitaxian Probe was identified as the real problem that enabled the card. Birthing Pod was “okay” until Siege Rhino came out. No one cared about Eye of Ugin or “eldrazi” strategies until cards like Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher were printed.
The reality is, sometimes new cards aren’t the problem, but they highlight why cards that have existed in the format are problematic. I’m not exactly sure if this is the case that is happening with Creeping Chill and Dredge, but I wouldn’t be so quick to point the finger at Creeping Chill just because it’s the new card in the deck.
I really do not think anything graveyard-based will be considered for this next announcement.
Ancient Stirrings will be the only card looked into, as evinced by our poll. The format will change enough from that banning, and will require time to develop to see if dredge remains problematic
Hmm what I find interesting here is that this clearly goes against all the people who seem to be down on BG midrange decks.
Being able to win at smaller events is what leads to decks like 8Whack. Odds of it becoming 'meta'? Next to 0.
We saw a huge BGx spike when BBE/Jace came off the list because people wish Modern had more BGx/URx, but then those get pushed more and more to the side, at least in MTGO, as time goes on.
I'll keep that wrapter meme in my head forever now.
I really do not think anything graveyard-based will be considered for this next announcement.
Ancient Stirrings will be the only card looked into, as evinced by our poll. The format will change enough from that banning, and will require time to develop to see if dredge remains problematic
I would agree with this. We're not that far out from the release of Guilds of Ravnica. The heavy resurgence of Dredge has been a fairly recent happening. Ancient Stirrings, on the other hand, has had a consistent presence in the meta-game, especially in Top 8 results, for a while. If there is anything that is currently being watched, I'd put my money on Stirrings. My guess is that even if Dredge is being watched, they will give it some time to breathe in the format before making any sort of quickfire decisions about it. That being said, I'm skeptical on whether any action is needed at the moment.
I've seen compelling arguments running in both directions. On a personal level, I'd like to see it gone from the format, but that is merely for biased reasons and I can fully admit that. I can't say for sure whether the format requires it to be removed via banning.
Lumping entirely different deck archetypes together for the purpose of evaluating Ancient Stirrings for ban considerations isn't a good argument. Don't expect Wizards to risk format diversity, reprint equity, and player confidence with this as the only support.
I really do not think anything graveyard-based will be considered for this next announcement.
Ancient Stirrings will be the only card looked into, as evinced by our poll. The format will change enough from that banning, and will require time to develop to see if dredge remains problematic
remains? It never started to be a Problem till now.
Lumping entirely different deck archetypes together for the purpose of evaluating Ancient Stirrings for ban considerations isn't a good argument. Don't expect Wizards to risk format diversity, reprint equity, and player confidence with this as the only support.
I am still compiling evidence for a more substantive reply to this post and your earlier, thoughtful argument. In summary, I do not believe there is anything unprecedented about grouping Stirrings decks collectively. This has been done with a few bans in the past in Modern alone. More to come as I finish the 2014 and 2011 data analysis.
I just calculated all the results fro SCG Regionals(areas: Nashville, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Raleigh, New York, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Columbus, Columbia, Orlando, Michigan). This is the number of Top8's.
Hmm what I find interesting here is that this clearly goes against all the people who seem to be down on BG midrange decks.
I believe this is because many people who hold that opinion place undue weight on the results of GP, which are probably the least representative events possible for the vast majority of players. The unique GP dynamics play out in deck selection and metagame bias. For instance, control and midrange decks where you try to answer everything are tough sells at GP; there are so many unknown players and decks and answers aren't that good. This is true in Standard, let alone Modern. But at a more local event with no more than 150ish players, you might personally know at least half of the field, or even more if there are fewer players. This makes it easier to tune a control and/or midrange deck to line up against threats.
This underscores the importance of not just using GP results, especially narrow American GP results, to determine global Modern metagame health. I'd also go so far as to say that GP ATL did not appear to adversely impact diversity at this circuit. People did not give those results as much weight as they could have. We'll see if that also happens at the RPTQ level in the coming weeks.
I can agree with that. I mean as far as I can see there is no truly dominant deck in the format right now but instead many that are roughly on the same level. I have only returned recently but I can tell that this is no Treasure Cruise season or Eldrazi Winter. I see so much different stuff it's crazy.
And I have never gotten why certain people care so much about single GP results. Im not playing in them after all and I assume that's true for most people in here. What really matters is how it looks in the field you are actually playing in and that can and probably will look quite different. The proof is out there.
That's why I don't support any kind of ban currently. Instead a few of the non-combo cards should be released from the ban list. The format has shown itself to be able to handle cards that used to scare players and WotC alike to death. *cough* Jace *cough*
And I have never gotten why certain people care so much about single GP results.
Because WOTC can, and will, destroy peoples' decks on the backs of the results from a handful of people at GPs. That is the data they care about when making B&R decisions, in addition to the MTGO data that we are not allowed to see.
making conclusions based off of one tournament isnt very helpful, ill give you that, but ask yourself why GP results matter at all. for every format. consider what it is they provide for the game, and especially for the formats the grand prix circuit supports.
if you think modern grand prixs are important for the health and success of the format; then the results should matter. because the truth of the matter is that large tournaments are an extension of player perception, even if the reality is that the vast majority of said players never take part. perception translates to interest, which in turn means more bodies at the LGS level.
if there is a disconnect between what we see at the local level, and at the GP level it creates dissonance. you start placing conditionals on your play experience (X decks are only good if..., the meta is diverse if..., etc). this damages the integrity of the format because the modern one person is playing might not be the modern that someone else is playing. ultimately it drives a wedge between how players can relate to one another, and the idea of shared experiences is a powerful motivator.
sorry for waxing philosophical. i just work in the UX/HCI(human computer interaction) field, which includes a lot of balancing the practical and the fact that humans can be very impractical. MTG is a game after all, so wizards has to consider stuff like player perception.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I feel like banning cards, except truly broken stuff like Eye of Ugin, acomplishes nothing for the overall health of modern in the long run. All it takes are one or two innocent looking cards (creeping chill for example) slipping through the playtesting team to wreck havoc in the format.
Cards need to be printed/reprinted/UNBANNED so that people have at least some answers for all the kind of broken stuff happening in modern. At this point i don't get it how people are still arguing Preordain and SFM being too strong for modern... I mean just look at the huge impact Jace and Bloodbraid had on the health of ups nevermind
Although we live worlds apart, I completely agree with this. I have often said here that the only time in Modern that was not enjoyable to me was Eldrazi Winter. I don't want to get into specific cards that I didn't mind being in the format (because I will get bashed), I have had fun any other time in Modern. It never felt warped. It just felt like there were best decks. Nothing wrong with that. There's always a best deck. It's just that nowadays, people are more unsure about what it is.
I think that for someone to suggest a ban right now is just silly. Nothing is overwhelming. Good players win. If 100 good players play a deck, it will have results, sorry. There is no 1 deck that is doing too well right now. But in some ways, I hardly blame anyone for being ban happy (if they are) because Wizards has "created this monster" by having this approach in Modern. So far it has worked well, but is there proof that it wouldn't have been as good a format if some other changes did not happen? I'm not sure.
Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Dredge even less them grixis. Only 4,5% ...humans 12,5%. So i hope we can stop talking bannings against dredge, till more success maybe comes in the future
Conflagerate is one of the reasons that Dredge can do so well and doesn't have as many weaknesses. Banning this card will handle its reach, but also allow small/large creature based decks to beat or at least handle dredge. This would provide an interesting way for dredge to keep control and possible midrange down, but also allow it to have a weakness for creature based strategies.
Wow, Tron at 8%? That's large. Surprised how much Phoenix is doing, too. I'm skeptical of that card in modern right now.
That pie chart overall looks pretty solid.
Tron at 8% shouldn't be remotely concerning. It's a top-tier deck and it's not even the most-played deck in the breakdown. We can't get into a mindset where decks aren't allowed to be 8% of a T8 metagame. That's basically arguing we can't have top-tier decks period. BGx is even higher than Tron and you still focused on Tron's share as "large," when 8% seems like exactly what a top-tier deck should be batting at that Regionals level.
That chart simply SCREAMS 'play what you have/like'.
1. Phoenix decks are riding the diva hype wave still. That is an unrefined shell (I'm going to go BR after this next ban announcement doesn't free Twin.) but that percentage is hype, not performance.
2. So many of the top decks are really low percentage, and then you jump up to BGx, with Junk/Jund two of the most popular decks years ago then boosted by Trophy? That just tells me a lot of regional players did not migrate to new decks.
That chart simply SCREAMS 'play what you have/like'.
1. Phoenix decks are riding the diva hype wave still. That is an unrefined shell (I'm going to go BR after this next ban announcement doesn't free Twin.) but that percentage is hype, not performance.
2. So many of the top decks are really low percentage, and then you jump up to BGx, with Junk/Jund two of the most popular decks years ago then boosted by Trophy? That just tells me a lot of regional players did not migrate to new decks.
3. Tron was still probably underplayed.
4. People like Human's.
it is not liking, it is top 8. thats a big Differenz!!
so did Creeping Chill put dredge back into top tier status or is it just people trying the deck with a new toy?
Been talking about unbans lately with friends and most of us agree that unbanning twin wouldn't really do much in the format right now. are there any other unbans that wouldn't affect the format much?
That chart simply SCREAMS 'play what you have/like'.
1. Phoenix decks are riding the diva hype wave still. That is an unrefined shell (I'm going to go BR after this next ban announcement doesn't free Twin.) but that percentage is hype, not performance.
2. So many of the top decks are really low percentage, and then you jump up to BGx, with Junk/Jund two of the most popular decks years ago then boosted by Trophy? That just tells me a lot of regional players did not migrate to new decks.
3. Tron was still probably underplayed.
4. People like Human's.
it is not liking, it is top 8. thats a big Differenz!!
Not really. You want to claim Humans and Jund are that much better than Hollow One and Affinity and Tron?
I know you think humans is too good, but it's not that good.
so did Creeping Chill put dredge back into top tier status or is it just people trying the deck with a new toy?
Been talking about unbans lately with friends and most of us agree that unbanning twin wouldn't really do much in the format right now. are there any other unbans that wouldn't affect the format much?
Yep, Creeping Chill really helped Dredge and pushed it to the top
That chart simply SCREAMS 'play what you have/like'.
1. Phoenix decks are riding the diva hype wave still. That is an unrefined shell (I'm going to go BR after this next ban announcement doesn't free Twin.) but that percentage is hype, not performance.
2. So many of the top decks are really low percentage, and then you jump up to BGx, with Junk/Jund two of the most popular decks years ago then boosted by Trophy? That just tells me a lot of regional players did not migrate to new decks.
3. Tron was still probably underplayed.
4. People like Human's.
it is not liking, it is top 8. thats a big Differenz!!
Not really. You want to claim Humans and Jund are that much better than Hollow One and Affinity and Tron?
I know you think humans is too good, but it's not that good.
the stats are the stats, so answer is yes. If stats dont change, Banning dredge is not ok. If such a expensive deck like humans is played so often and make such results since 9 months...so it is much better as affinty or hollow...and if this is ok, so dredge is fine. Lets talk about it in some months and we can See if its maybe bannable
Humans is expensive because of 3 cards. Noble, Canopy, and Cavern. Those all could have been had for far more reasonable prices before, if one was so inclined. $1300 for one of the top decks in the format, is simply the cost of doing business.
Lets not confuse this as a GP here either. There is no way I'm going to accept that Jund/Junk, in this format, are better than even 50% of the rest of the field, and yet its at 11% of the Top 8 meta.
No way is it that good.
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I also have felt the deck would be fine with GGT IF Bloodghast was gone. Bloodghast is what makes them so resilient and while grave troll provided an end game inc ase the weenies cant get there without the bloodghast grave troll wouldn't end the game nearly as fast due to the chip damage those pesky ghasts provide.
I don’t think that this is a good way to evaluate whether a card is problematic or not.
Heck, no one cared about Dredge before Prized Amalgam came out. That was when it was decided that GGT was a broken Magic card. Become Immense seemed like it was a problem… but Gitaxian Probe was identified as the real problem that enabled the card. Birthing Pod was “okay” until Siege Rhino came out. No one cared about Eye of Ugin or “eldrazi” strategies until cards like Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher were printed.
The reality is, sometimes new cards aren’t the problem, but they highlight why cards that have existed in the format are problematic. I’m not exactly sure if this is the case that is happening with Creeping Chill and Dredge, but I wouldn’t be so quick to point the finger at Creeping Chill just because it’s the new card in the deck.
Ancient Stirrings will be the only card looked into, as evinced by our poll. The format will change enough from that banning, and will require time to develop to see if dredge remains problematic
Being able to win at smaller events is what leads to decks like 8Whack. Odds of it becoming 'meta'? Next to 0.
We saw a huge BGx spike when BBE/Jace came off the list because people wish Modern had more BGx/URx, but then those get pushed more and more to the side, at least in MTGO, as time goes on.
I'll keep that wrapter meme in my head forever now.
Spirits
I would agree with this. We're not that far out from the release of Guilds of Ravnica. The heavy resurgence of Dredge has been a fairly recent happening. Ancient Stirrings, on the other hand, has had a consistent presence in the meta-game, especially in Top 8 results, for a while. If there is anything that is currently being watched, I'd put my money on Stirrings. My guess is that even if Dredge is being watched, they will give it some time to breathe in the format before making any sort of quickfire decisions about it. That being said, I'm skeptical on whether any action is needed at the moment.
I've seen compelling arguments running in both directions. On a personal level, I'd like to see it gone from the format, but that is merely for biased reasons and I can fully admit that. I can't say for sure whether the format requires it to be removed via banning.
I am still compiling evidence for a more substantive reply to this post and your earlier, thoughtful argument. In summary, I do not believe there is anything unprecedented about grouping Stirrings decks collectively. This has been done with a few bans in the past in Modern alone. More to come as I finish the 2014 and 2011 data analysis.
I can agree with that. I mean as far as I can see there is no truly dominant deck in the format right now but instead many that are roughly on the same level. I have only returned recently but I can tell that this is no Treasure Cruise season or Eldrazi Winter. I see so much different stuff it's crazy.
And I have never gotten why certain people care so much about single GP results. Im not playing in them after all and I assume that's true for most people in here. What really matters is how it looks in the field you are actually playing in and that can and probably will look quite different. The proof is out there.
That's why I don't support any kind of ban currently. Instead a few of the non-combo cards should be released from the ban list. The format has shown itself to be able to handle cards that used to scare players and WotC alike to death. *cough* Jace *cough*
Because WOTC can, and will, destroy peoples' decks on the backs of the results from a handful of people at GPs. That is the data they care about when making B&R decisions, in addition to the MTGO data that we are not allowed to see.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
if you think modern grand prixs are important for the health and success of the format; then the results should matter. because the truth of the matter is that large tournaments are an extension of player perception, even if the reality is that the vast majority of said players never take part. perception translates to interest, which in turn means more bodies at the LGS level.
if there is a disconnect between what we see at the local level, and at the GP level it creates dissonance. you start placing conditionals on your play experience (X decks are only good if..., the meta is diverse if..., etc). this damages the integrity of the format because the modern one person is playing might not be the modern that someone else is playing. ultimately it drives a wedge between how players can relate to one another, and the idea of shared experiences is a powerful motivator.
sorry for waxing philosophical. i just work in the UX/HCI(human computer interaction) field, which includes a lot of balancing the practical and the fact that humans can be very impractical. MTG is a game after all, so wizards has to consider stuff like player perception.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Although we live worlds apart, I completely agree with this. I have often said here that the only time in Modern that was not enjoyable to me was Eldrazi Winter. I don't want to get into specific cards that I didn't mind being in the format (because I will get bashed), I have had fun any other time in Modern. It never felt warped. It just felt like there were best decks. Nothing wrong with that. There's always a best deck. It's just that nowadays, people are more unsure about what it is.
I think that for someone to suggest a ban right now is just silly. Nothing is overwhelming. Good players win. If 100 good players play a deck, it will have results, sorry. There is no 1 deck that is doing too well right now. But in some ways, I hardly blame anyone for being ban happy (if they are) because Wizards has "created this monster" by having this approach in Modern. So far it has worked well, but is there proof that it wouldn't have been as good a format if some other changes did not happen? I'm not sure.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)That pie chart overall looks pretty solid.
Conflagerate is one of the reasons that Dredge can do so well and doesn't have as many weaknesses. Banning this card will handle its reach, but also allow small/large creature based decks to beat or at least handle dredge. This would provide an interesting way for dredge to keep control and possible midrange down, but also allow it to have a weakness for creature based strategies.
It would also only hit dredge.
So is this regional top 8's, or top 32's or what?
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
Tron at 8% shouldn't be remotely concerning. It's a top-tier deck and it's not even the most-played deck in the breakdown. We can't get into a mindset where decks aren't allowed to be 8% of a T8 metagame. That's basically arguing we can't have top-tier decks period. BGx is even higher than Tron and you still focused on Tron's share as "large," when 8% seems like exactly what a top-tier deck should be batting at that Regionals level.
1. Phoenix decks are riding the diva hype wave still. That is an unrefined shell (I'm going to go BR after this next ban announcement doesn't free Twin.) but that percentage is hype, not performance.
2. So many of the top decks are really low percentage, and then you jump up to BGx, with Junk/Jund two of the most popular decks years ago then boosted by Trophy? That just tells me a lot of regional players did not migrate to new decks.
3. Tron was still probably underplayed.
4. People like Human's.
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StaffBeen talking about unbans lately with friends and most of us agree that unbanning twin wouldn't really do much in the format right now. are there any other unbans that wouldn't affect the format much?
Not really. You want to claim Humans and Jund are that much better than Hollow One and Affinity and Tron?
I know you think humans is too good, but it's not that good.
Spirits
Yep, Creeping Chill really helped Dredge and pushed it to the top
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/the-10-most-important-additions-to-modern-from-guilds-of-ravnica/
Spirits
Lets not confuse this as a GP here either. There is no way I'm going to accept that Jund/Junk, in this format, are better than even 50% of the rest of the field, and yet its at 11% of the Top 8 meta.
No way is it that good.
Spirits