Did you catch his post after the stats got posted? People aren't able to edit posts at the moment so mistakes can happen.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
Karlov is also just shifting the purpose of the argument; I don't think cf is trying to instigate a Twin debate at all, these are just the numbers many of us have looked into in the past. He's using Twin's stats to show how important top 8s actually are, a point KTK clearly picked up on and addressed.
I do have to say, I think there's plenty of merit to KTK's position about Blue control being a good deck right now; the top 32 numbers certainly are convincing with that kind of meta share, but cf has a point as far as another aspect of the state of Modern. WotC uses top 8s to make big decisions for the format. Both points feel very correct, both points definitely seem to oppose each other.
Do we really know how WOTC makes choices? Seems purely dependent on sales and not so much Balance not that I blame them pretty hard to determine how any one card works with the sheer amount of cards and decks in Modern. Though they do have actual data on the decks so I suppose that helps.
Do we really know how WOTC makes choices? Seems purely dependent on sales and not so much Balance not that I blame them pretty hard to determine how any one card works with the sheer amount of cards and decks in Modern. Though they do have actual data on the decks so I suppose that helps.
Unban's may be sales driven to some degree, but looking back at the bans (and unbans) there are some pretty clear goals.
The only one that really still looks suspect, 3 years later, well you can guess which that is.
Karlov is also just shifting the purpose of the argument; I don't think cf is trying to instigate a Twin debate at all, these are just the numbers many of us have looked into in the past. He's using Twin's stats to show how important top 8s actually are, a point KTK clearly picked up on and addressed.
I do have to say, I think there's plenty of merit to KTK's position about Blue control being a good deck right now; the top 32 numbers certainly are convincing with that kind of meta share, but cf has a point as far as another aspect of the state of Modern. WotC uses top 8s to make big decisions for the format. Both points feel very correct, both points definitely seem to oppose each other.
As I've said a few times now, T8s are very important for B&R decisions. They are much less important when we are assessing deck performance. The last few pages about UW have been primarily about its performance, hence why I want us to stop overemphasizing this meaningless technical detail that UW didn't T8 this event.
Do we really know how WOTC makes choices? Seems purely dependent on sales and not so much Balance not that I blame them pretty hard to determine how any one card works with the sheer amount of cards and decks in Modern. Though they do have actual data on the decks so I suppose that helps.
Unban's may be sales driven to some degree, but looking back at the bans (and unbans) there are some pretty clear goals.
The only one that really still looks suspect, 3 years later, well you can guess which that is.
Oh yes, we can all guess it. It's been talked to a point that the horse decomposed several months back. During that time the goal posts shifted from "Blue has no representation" to "blue based control has no representation" and then to "blue based control that isn't URW and uses a 4 mana red enchantment isn't seeing play". Because nothing short of an apology hand-delivered by carrier pigeon signed by Mark Rosewater in gold leaf print will satisfy you or Cfusion.
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
When did you get back from your ban holiday? Clearly you havent been keeping up with my posts.
1. You are correct, I will accept nothing less than an apology from Forsythe regarding Twin. He lied. Wizards was wrong. There is nothing else to be said on it.
2. If you've been paying attention for a year now, I've been saying UWR, UW and to a lesser degree UR, are all perfectly acceptable. My win rates on UR are much higher than would be expected for a 'bad' deck.
When did you get back from your ban holiday? Clearly you havent been keeping up with my posts.
1. You are correct, I will accept nothing less than an apology from Forsythe regarding Twin. He lied. Wizards was wrong. There is nothing else to be said on it.
2. If you've been paying attention for a year now, I've been saying UWR, UW and to a lesser degree UR, are all perfectly acceptable. My win rates on UR are much higher than would be expected for a 'bad' deck.
3. You'll be back on ignore now, take care.
I've been back for a while. I just never come in here because you and Cfusion have perpetually turned the "Modern Banlist" thread into the "Splinter Twin whine and moan thread occasionally featuring Ensnaring Bridge or Blood Moon". Any topic, no matter what it is, you two turn it into a personal vendetta to gripe about your pet deck.
And for someone claiming that other decks are perfectly acceptable, you sure are willing to bash on Wizards any time any kind of vague nebulous connection to Twin pops up.
I would ignore you too, but if I ignored you and Cfusion, this entire thread would be an bunch of blocked posts, and people responding to the blocked posts. So you've got that going for you. Kudos for that.
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
Re: UW Control at the GP
I haven't seen a lot of the ridiculous "failed to convert" argument here, but I did see it on Reddit and it was mentioned on Hoogland's channel last night. I want to get ahead of this uncritical line before it starts. Importantly, although there are no UW Control decks in the T8, the 10th place pilot missed T8 on breakers alone. Moreover, he did this with only one Bye. It's still technically true that he didn't T8. But that is clearly a loaded observation that is secretly, or not so secretly, trying to imply something about UW Control's viability. Don't buy it and don't parrot it around. UW Control had a very strong GP and SCG peeformance, on the backs of repeated strong MTGO performances and a previous strong GP finish. It's the real deal.
Isn't there an argument about how poorly it has performed based on it's Day 2 saturation compared to the rest of the field?
Any topic, no matter what it is, you two turn it into a personal vendetta to gripe about your pet deck.
When speaking about the relevance and importance of GP Top 8s, I found it interesting to investigate what might have been if tiebreakers went another way. You can't say it doesn't change the entire face of Modern today, if 2015 had four tiebreakers go the other way. Personally, that blows my mind.
i mean id argue that UW control had a statistically improbable performance. both in its day 2 presence, and its 8 copies in just the 9-32 range; which is 3 times more than other deck in the set. all while zero in the top 8.
Again, there is simply no good reason to frame a lliteral lack of T8 copies as a performance strike against the deck or even a negative finish. Tigo in 10th missed on breakers alone with only one Bye. That's spectacular. If we're trying to meaningfullly assess performance based on metrics that matter, this needs to effectively be treated as a T8 placement. I assume we're trying to assess the deck's actual performance, not just get a surface level capture. If so, treat that finish as actually better than some of the "true" T8 finishes off the backs of triple Byes.
i think you misunderstood. i was saying that UW did unnaturally good, and the fact that none made the top 8 was likely more fluke than anything else.
on the balance id rate 8 copies in the top 32 of a GP over 3 copies of humans, with 2 in the top 8. which is clearly a disproportionate representation of how good each deck is.
im more surprised people arent up in arms about the UW dominance rather than writing its performance off due to the lack of presence in the post-swiss rounds. i guess i was trying to put out a fire that wasnt even there.
I dont know, to me though that first grouping is what I would consider 'things I need to handle'.
heh, i cant take much credit. its just a qualitative assessment of power based on my experience/opinion. your last comment sort of mirrors my own train of thought when i was mulling it over. asking myself what decks people fear and adjust to.
i was hesitant to label it a tier because people might get the wrong idea. for example i wouldnt consider infect 'tier 1', but it and burn occupy some of the same space. between aggro and combo, and swooping in to keep other decks in check.
id be interested to see how other people might rate decks and their influence on the meta.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Do we really know how WOTC makes choices? Seems purely dependent on sales and not so much Balance not that I blame them pretty hard to determine how any one card works with the sheer amount of cards and decks in Modern. Though they do have actual data on the decks so I suppose that helps.
Unban's may be sales driven to some degree, but looking back at the bans (and unbans) there are some pretty clear goals.
The only one that really still looks suspect, 3 years later, well you can guess which that is.
Oh yes, we can all guess it. It's been talked to a point that the horse decomposed several months back. During that time the goal posts shifted from "Blue has no representation" to "blue based control has no representation" and then to "blue based control that isn't URW and uses a 4 mana red enchantment isn't seeing play". Because nothing short of an apology hand-delivered by carrier pigeon signed by Mark Rosewater in gold leaf print will satisfy you or Cfusion.
You say that as if nothing has changed for blue based control but Blue Based Control is in because of Meta Shifts thank you Humans and the fact that its has gotten JTMS, Search and THOD in quick succession.
At this point, there is no meaningful reason SFM is banned.
From a player's standpoint, I wholeheartedly agree with you here. From a business standpoint, unbanning SFM in the slower part of the year wastes some hype value. It will probably be unbanned closer to a reprinting to drive sales of whatever set includes it (bonus points if that same set includes Batterskull or any decent Swords). Would make sense for that to coincide with the anniversary of the last unbanning right after the Pro Tour as well, for the same reasons Wizards gave before.
At this point, there is no meaningful reason SFM is banned.
From a player's standpoint, I wholeheartedly agree with you here. From a business standpoint, unbanning SFM in the slower part of the year wastes some hype value. It will probably be unbanned closer to a reprinting to drive sales of whatever set includes it (bonus points if that same set includes Batterskull or any decent Swords). Would make sense for that to coincide with the anniversary of the last unbanning right after the Pro Tour as well, for the same reasons Wizards gave before.
Yeah, I think at this point we all basically acknowledge that SFM's release is just around the corner and will likely coincide with the next big SFM reprinting. A February 2019 unban would be the likeliest, as I assume Wizards will maintain their promise to avoid pre-PT unbans/bans in fulfillment of Forsythe's commitment to no more shakeup B&R changes.
Honestly, I don't even think this is such a bad thing. If Wizards makes decisions to enhance Modern popularity and interest, I'm totally fine with that. Wizards needs to make money and I'm glad they are including Modern in their monetization methods. That bodes well for our format and assures we'll have more investment in years to come.
The sad part to me is that it probably will take all this time just for the Stoneforge Mystic ban to happen when I'm pretty sure many of us are on board with at least 1-2 other unbans as well.
Admittedly, Stoneforge Mystic does create some excitement in Modern, but in the end, I fear we will end up with something a lot more docile than Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
They've never had unbans within a year of each other, so we're looking at February for a SFM unban at the earliest. It could end up being late Spring or early Summer 2019, as well.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I play Pauper. Preordain is so many magnitudes better than Serum Visions, you guys must not have played against Blue Delver before. That card is absurd.
Ban Stirrings and leave all the uber-Cantrips out of Modern, please.
Honestly, the only issue I have with standard and modern is that they pushed too many enter the battlefield effects, thus generating a whole rainbow of ETB strategies. In fact, the majority of modern decks are now based around or dependent on ETB based cards to compete. The counters to this particular strategy aren't played because they die too easily or require a turn to get online. They need a pushed 3-4 cmc card that shuts them down. Preferably with hexproof and a strong body.
I was surprised to see even Deaths shadow had a few. Maybe I'm wrong, but it is contributing to the speed of the format more than the original lack of good control.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
1) If one of the main reasons Splinter Twin got banned is the double PT FRF top 8, which merely came from a perfect limited record, then it should have never been banned. I would much rather prefer them sharing stats from MODO and showing it's dominance(if there was one).
This feels as disgusting as it did back then.
I agree that it's problematic, but I also acknowledge it's where Wizards comes from which is why I encourage us to keep looking at GP/PT T8s as the primary predictor of B&R decisions. MTGO is clearly the secondary predictor (and may even be the primary), but our knowledge of the true MTGO metagame is never going to align with Wizards' so it's tough to generate predictions based on that. Hopefully Wizards moves past this T8-centric notion of Modern. Until they do, however, we'll just keep acknowledging T8s as such an important barometer of format health in Wizards' eyes, and an important indicator of pending bans.
2) Saying UW Control is not a Tier 1 deck, because it had a great Day 2 presence, a great T32 presence, but a poor T8 presence(even if one was into the top 8, on tiebreakers alone), is really off. I heard holydiva and Hoogland saying this exact same thing, both for #GPSP and #GPPrague. It's just wrong.
UW is a great deck, and instead of us talking at how bad it's T8 conversion rates was, we should be talking about how great it's Day 2 to T32 conversion rate was.
I totally agree with this. I enjoy Hoogland and h0ly as streamers and content creators. I watch their channels when they are up and I have the time. But both of them fall into a similar trap of deliberately leaning towards some strong, polarizing, controversial opinions in public. I don't know the extent to which these views are to generate views, create a certain persona, or just express personal beliefs. I do know that a Twitch soundbite does not qualify as real analysis. I also know that both users, particularly Hoogland, do not react well to challenges in their channels. This can lead to an echo chamber effect among their followers, which gets compounded when those users parrot the soundbite on Reddit and other platforms.
If we really want to assess true deck performance instead of generating memes, soundbites, and views, we need to go beyond the T8. The best way to do this is through T32 analysis coupled with standings and #s of Byes. This gives us the most accurate sense of true deck performance over the event. For instance, at GP Prague, there are only three players in the entire T16 who have 1 or 0 byes. These players are Haram (5th - Bant Spirits - 1 Bye), Seegelken (10th - UW Control - 1 Bye), and the super impressive Leszek (11th - Mardu - 0 Byes). Rather than talking about how a 0 Bye player got 39 points with Mardu at a 2k player GP, missing T8 on breakers alone, we see people talking about how Thoughtseize and midrange decks are bad. Same with the UW Control narrative. This kind of surface level analysis is lazy and does not describe true deck performance. It's unfortunate that Hoogland and h0ly, along with other Modern personalities, don't use their platforms to intentionally push back against this superficial, clippable analysis, which means players and posters have to do it themselves. Hopefully we can rise about that in this thread.
It really is funny to pop into this thread after a hiatus and see the same wheelbarrel is still rolling.
Twin was bad for the growth of the Modern format, good riddance, hopefully it stays banned.
Control is now pretty much tier 1-1.1. You have to account for the control matchup if you wish to succeed in this Modern meta.
Stoneforge unban is a maybe, but more likely than it has been before. I don’t think we’ll see it unbanned so soon though. Ravnica is around the corner, and historically that has always introduced a glut of powerful multicolor cards. I’d wait to see their impact, and I bet so will WotC.
Green Sun’s Zenith ban was not about power, and people who clamor for its return do so not understanding the reason it was banned.
Preordain isn’t coming back, just play pauper or legacy if you want your blue cantrip fix.
OPINION: Ancient Stirrings ban is possible, but only because Tron is a negative influence and really a police deck the format doesn’t need. It skews control and midrange and allows the existence of hyper linear decks. Tron getting knocked down a peg, would ultimately a good thing for Modern growth.
While we’ve seen the emergence of a multitude of linear/aggressive decks we have also seen a blooming of fair decks as well. Hopefully some of the catchall answers we saw in the last Ravnica (dsphere, dreadbore, decay, verdict) come to light in this new one as well.
so to those who are casually throwing out the 'ban stirrings' comments. what do you think the aftermath of hitting such a format staple would look like?
at this point it just seems like a token response to our natural inclination to seek out the next 'problem' that needs to be dealt with.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I know I've been cutting back on presenting too much bravado on subjects involving modern myself. FNM is a very different world from top level play, so observations and thoughts I have will naturally deviate from the reality presented by the PT and GP results. Eg, my feelings toward ETB creatures being pushed without counter measures stemming from my experience in other TCGs that haven't reached the critical mass modern has in players.
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
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1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I do have to say, I think there's plenty of merit to KTK's position about Blue control being a good deck right now; the top 32 numbers certainly are convincing with that kind of meta share, but cf has a point as far as another aspect of the state of Modern. WotC uses top 8s to make big decisions for the format. Both points feel very correct, both points definitely seem to oppose each other.
"Reveal a Dragon"
Unban's may be sales driven to some degree, but looking back at the bans (and unbans) there are some pretty clear goals.
The only one that really still looks suspect, 3 years later, well you can guess which that is.
Spirits
As I've said a few times now, T8s are very important for B&R decisions. They are much less important when we are assessing deck performance. The last few pages about UW have been primarily about its performance, hence why I want us to stop overemphasizing this meaningless technical detail that UW didn't T8 this event.
My list would be essentially (rough order)
UW, Humans, G-Tron
UWR, KCI, Mardu, GDS
Affinity, Hollow One, Storm
Burn, Spirits
Dredge, Infect
All of these are subjectively stronger than the 'typical' tier 2.
Bant Knightfall/GW Counters
UR Blue Moon/Esper
Merfolk
Jund/Junk
Grishoalbrand
Eldrazi? They fell off a lot lately.
I dont know, to me though that first grouping is what I would consider 'things I need to handle'.
Spirits
Oh yes, we can all guess it. It's been talked to a point that the horse decomposed several months back. During that time the goal posts shifted from "Blue has no representation" to "blue based control has no representation" and then to "blue based control that isn't URW and uses a 4 mana red enchantment isn't seeing play". Because nothing short of an apology hand-delivered by carrier pigeon signed by Mark Rosewater in gold leaf print will satisfy you or Cfusion.
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
1. You are correct, I will accept nothing less than an apology from Forsythe regarding Twin. He lied. Wizards was wrong. There is nothing else to be said on it.
2. If you've been paying attention for a year now, I've been saying UWR, UW and to a lesser degree UR, are all perfectly acceptable. My win rates on UR are much higher than would be expected for a 'bad' deck.
3. You'll be back on ignore now, take care.
Spirits
I've been back for a while. I just never come in here because you and Cfusion have perpetually turned the "Modern Banlist" thread into the "Splinter Twin whine and moan thread occasionally featuring Ensnaring Bridge or Blood Moon". Any topic, no matter what it is, you two turn it into a personal vendetta to gripe about your pet deck.
And for someone claiming that other decks are perfectly acceptable, you sure are willing to bash on Wizards any time any kind of vague nebulous connection to Twin pops up.
I would ignore you too, but if I ignored you and Cfusion, this entire thread would be an bunch of blocked posts, and people responding to the blocked posts. So you've got that going for you. Kudos for that.
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
Isn't there an argument about how poorly it has performed based on it's Day 2 saturation compared to the rest of the field?
When speaking about the relevance and importance of GP Top 8s, I found it interesting to investigate what might have been if tiebreakers went another way. You can't say it doesn't change the entire face of Modern today, if 2015 had four tiebreakers go the other way. Personally, that blows my mind.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
i think you misunderstood. i was saying that UW did unnaturally good, and the fact that none made the top 8 was likely more fluke than anything else.
on the balance id rate 8 copies in the top 32 of a GP over 3 copies of humans, with 2 in the top 8. which is clearly a disproportionate representation of how good each deck is.
im more surprised people arent up in arms about the UW dominance rather than writing its performance off due to the lack of presence in the post-swiss rounds. i guess i was trying to put out a fire that wasnt even there.
heh, i cant take much credit. its just a qualitative assessment of power based on my experience/opinion. your last comment sort of mirrors my own train of thought when i was mulling it over. asking myself what decks people fear and adjust to.
i was hesitant to label it a tier because people might get the wrong idea. for example i wouldnt consider infect 'tier 1', but it and burn occupy some of the same space. between aggro and combo, and swooping in to keep other decks in check.
id be interested to see how other people might rate decks and their influence on the meta.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)You say that as if nothing has changed for blue based control but Blue Based Control is in because of Meta Shifts thank you Humans and the fact that its has gotten JTMS, Search and THOD in quick succession.
KCI, Tron, Affinity, Hardened Scales, Grixis Shadow, storm, burn, infect, dredge, hollow one - obviously wouldn't play it
Jeskai/UW - might play it, although would change how the deck operates
Humans - can't since its not a human. Too hard to produce white mana. Would need to change its mana base to fit it
Mardu - Possibly, but mardu likes to play a lot of instant/sorceries to fuel Reveler so adding creatures and equipment is not the smartest thing
Lesser tier decks:
Death and Taxes - would snap include it
Abzan - Sure
Everything else would be new brews. The point is that the tier 1 decks right now would not play her, making her a perfect unban candidate
Spirits
From a player's standpoint, I wholeheartedly agree with you here. From a business standpoint, unbanning SFM in the slower part of the year wastes some hype value. It will probably be unbanned closer to a reprinting to drive sales of whatever set includes it (bonus points if that same set includes Batterskull or any decent Swords). Would make sense for that to coincide with the anniversary of the last unbanning right after the Pro Tour as well, for the same reasons Wizards gave before.
Yeah, I think at this point we all basically acknowledge that SFM's release is just around the corner and will likely coincide with the next big SFM reprinting. A February 2019 unban would be the likeliest, as I assume Wizards will maintain their promise to avoid pre-PT unbans/bans in fulfillment of Forsythe's commitment to no more shakeup B&R changes.
Honestly, I don't even think this is such a bad thing. If Wizards makes decisions to enhance Modern popularity and interest, I'm totally fine with that. Wizards needs to make money and I'm glad they are including Modern in their monetization methods. That bodes well for our format and assures we'll have more investment in years to come.
Admittedly, Stoneforge Mystic does create some excitement in Modern, but in the end, I fear we will end up with something a lot more docile than Jace, the Mind Sculptor or Bloodbraid Elf.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Ban Stirrings and leave all the uber-Cantrips out of Modern, please.
I was surprised to see even Deaths shadow had a few. Maybe I'm wrong, but it is contributing to the speed of the format more than the original lack of good control.
1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!
I agree that it's problematic, but I also acknowledge it's where Wizards comes from which is why I encourage us to keep looking at GP/PT T8s as the primary predictor of B&R decisions. MTGO is clearly the secondary predictor (and may even be the primary), but our knowledge of the true MTGO metagame is never going to align with Wizards' so it's tough to generate predictions based on that. Hopefully Wizards moves past this T8-centric notion of Modern. Until they do, however, we'll just keep acknowledging T8s as such an important barometer of format health in Wizards' eyes, and an important indicator of pending bans.
I totally agree with this. I enjoy Hoogland and h0ly as streamers and content creators. I watch their channels when they are up and I have the time. But both of them fall into a similar trap of deliberately leaning towards some strong, polarizing, controversial opinions in public. I don't know the extent to which these views are to generate views, create a certain persona, or just express personal beliefs. I do know that a Twitch soundbite does not qualify as real analysis. I also know that both users, particularly Hoogland, do not react well to challenges in their channels. This can lead to an echo chamber effect among their followers, which gets compounded when those users parrot the soundbite on Reddit and other platforms.
If we really want to assess true deck performance instead of generating memes, soundbites, and views, we need to go beyond the T8. The best way to do this is through T32 analysis coupled with standings and #s of Byes. This gives us the most accurate sense of true deck performance over the event. For instance, at GP Prague, there are only three players in the entire T16 who have 1 or 0 byes. These players are Haram (5th - Bant Spirits - 1 Bye), Seegelken (10th - UW Control - 1 Bye), and the super impressive Leszek (11th - Mardu - 0 Byes). Rather than talking about how a 0 Bye player got 39 points with Mardu at a 2k player GP, missing T8 on breakers alone, we see people talking about how Thoughtseize and midrange decks are bad. Same with the UW Control narrative. This kind of surface level analysis is lazy and does not describe true deck performance. It's unfortunate that Hoogland and h0ly, along with other Modern personalities, don't use their platforms to intentionally push back against this superficial, clippable analysis, which means players and posters have to do it themselves. Hopefully we can rise about that in this thread.
Twin was bad for the growth of the Modern format, good riddance, hopefully it stays banned.
Control is now pretty much tier 1-1.1. You have to account for the control matchup if you wish to succeed in this Modern meta.
Stoneforge unban is a maybe, but more likely than it has been before. I don’t think we’ll see it unbanned so soon though. Ravnica is around the corner, and historically that has always introduced a glut of powerful multicolor cards. I’d wait to see their impact, and I bet so will WotC.
Green Sun’s Zenith ban was not about power, and people who clamor for its return do so not understanding the reason it was banned.
Preordain isn’t coming back, just play pauper or legacy if you want your blue cantrip fix.
OPINION: Ancient Stirrings ban is possible, but only because Tron is a negative influence and really a police deck the format doesn’t need. It skews control and midrange and allows the existence of hyper linear decks. Tron getting knocked down a peg, would ultimately a good thing for Modern growth.
While we’ve seen the emergence of a multitude of linear/aggressive decks we have also seen a blooming of fair decks as well. Hopefully some of the catchall answers we saw in the last Ravnica (dsphere, dreadbore, decay, verdict) come to light in this new one as well.
at this point it just seems like a token response to our natural inclination to seek out the next 'problem' that needs to be dealt with.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!