Yea this all looks super interesting, if there's any help you want with this I'd be happy to help, I'm really interested in figuring out how we can use the data to draw a picture of things statistically.
i just wish there exists a walker on par with teferi in Grixis colors that fits more reactive playstyles.. but then again, not many walkers are on par with teferi to begin with, and LoTV+JTMS already exist....
Can Grixis players really complain about their walker quality? You got a few Lilis and Jaces to pick from better then most color combos. Unless you mean you want a Walker that Synergies more with Grixis Death Shadow.
GDS has Lily 2.0, Grixis Control has Lily 1.0, Baby Jace, JtMS, and K-Command...I mean yeah Teferi is good but yeah.
GDS is a different story, but LoTV is definitely not a control walker, well, at least she does not fit in the traditional "draw-go" style category.
Modern is a diverse enough format atm which is really nice to see. But equating blue based control to UWx or equating Grixis color combination to death shadow is limiting our space for creativity. Grixis colors have very good tools in Kommand + Snapcaster, and Grixis control is definitely powerful enough to be playable atm. But as a fair reactive deck that contributed to 0 significant results in the past few months, it wouldn't be too greedy to ask for something would it? We can't ask for universal answers because it's a white thing, but a better finisher may help us play differently. Maybe not a walker, could be a spell, just hope it's not an easily removable creature
I actually agree. But my focus is more centralized to dimir than grixis, you guys (non GDS grixis) probably need another efficient earlygame value threat to race with honestly, but I do think baleful strix would help so many decks in modern (i have an academy ruins just waiting).
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Decks I have in my bag of tricks- Needless to say, someone who wants to play will probably have a deck UB/x Faeries UR Storm XURWB Affinity G Elves UW control
@KTK, could you contact Frank Karsten with those data(no need for your name to be on it), or would this look too ambitious? I bet that he would be super interested!
Those data DESERVE to be out!
Might just do a simple blog and post some data to it, linking to Reddit. That's probably enough to get the #s out there.
I would love to read it. These results feel really counterintuitive (wouldn't be the first time experiments help confirm counterintuitive ideas). I definitely want to look more at this myself because it goes against much of my observations in Modern.
In the meantime, I think if we're quibbling about something as trivial as the MWP of people more successful than 99.99% of players, it helps illustrate that the format is the healthiest it's been in many years, and people like me simply have a hard time believing it after how utterly awful most those years have been. Modern is in a great place right now, even if incredibly volatile in matchup variance.
@KTK, could you contact Frank Karsten with those data(no need for your name to be on it), or would this look too ambitious? I bet that he would be super interested!
Those data DESERVE to be out!
Might just do a simple blog and post some data to it, linking to Reddit. That's probably enough to get the #s out there.
I would love to read it. These results feel really counterintuitive (wouldn't be the first time experiments help confirm counterintuitive ideas). I definitely want to look more at this myself because it goes against much of my observations in Modern.
In the meantime, I think if we're quibbling about something as trivial as the MWP of people more successful than 99.99% of players, it helps illustrate that the format is the healthiest it's been in many years, and people like me simply have a hard time believing it after how utterly awful most those years have been. Modern is in a great place right now, even if incredibly volatile in matchup variance.
I haven't been posting as much recently but I'm still lurking (and always playing). I know I've given you a hard time in the past so I just wanted to come out of the shadows and thank you for this post. Thank you, and I agree.
Let me know if you have any feedback on the post, blog, or whatever else before I distribute this to a wider audience. To summarize the post:
Takeaway 1: Players with more byes ultimately have higher final standings at Grand Prix.
Takeaway 2: Average tournament standing is identical between Modern and Standard regardless of how many byes a player has.
Takeaway 3: If you have 1 or 2 byes, your average tournament performance is identical in Standard and Modern GP.
Takeaway 4: If you have 3 byes, your average tournament performance is slightly better in Standard than in Modern.
Takeaway 5: If you have 0 byes, your average tournament performance is significantly worse in Standard than in Modern.
I am another stats guy, and was wondering what you did to get the data? Did you just have a program scrape the information off the wizards sites or manually copy + paste and edit? Didn't look like wizards had text or csv versions of standards naturally, but looks like something similar could be done with SCG events.
I am another stats guy, and was wondering what you did to get the data? Did you just have a program scrape the information off the wizards sites or manually copy + paste and edit? Didn't look like wizards had text or csv versions of standards naturally, but looks like something similar could be done with SCG events.
Manual copy paste into Excel. There's a window of time when the page loads before it filter to a 100 player viewcount. You can select all entries in that window. Then it just gets sorted and analyzed in Excel.
Indeed, updated above. I had counted it like 4 times...but is hot here...yeah.
Anyway, looks like the final was the teams of Hollow One (winner Team) vs Spirits, with the Semi's Burn and Ben's UWR Control with I may add, my personal favourite 2 Teferi, 1 Jace, split.
Spirits with the 4 of Supreme Phantom! Standard Sets strike again?
Thanks for checking it out. Not seeing any negative feedback so I'll go live with this tomorrow. Looking ahead to other topics for MTG ModernMetrics, what are people interested in? Here are some ideas I've had or heard, as well as projects I have in various states of completeness:
1. SCG Modern and Legacy Open comparison: top player MWP ceilings/floors
2. Relative performance/success of top pro players in Modern and Standard
3. Calculating matchup percentages from VODs/tournament coverage/observed games
4. Metagame breakdowns
5. Diversity comparisons in different periods of Modern history
6. Data-driven ban/unban analysis
7. Probability of certain decks accomplishing certain things within a set timeframe (e.g. T3 Karn)
Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?
Thanks for checking it out. Not seeing any negative feedback so I'll go live with this tomorrow. Looking ahead to other topics for MTG ModernMetrics, what are people interested in? Here are some ideas I've had or heard, as well as projects I have in various states of completeness:
1. SCG Modern and Legacy Open comparison: top player MWP ceilings/floors
2. Relative performance/success of top pro players in Modern and Standard
3. Calculating matchup percentages from VODs/tournament coverage/observed games
4. Metagame breakdowns
5. Diversity comparisons in different periods of Modern history
6. Data-driven ban/unban analysis
7. Probability of certain decks accomplishing certain things within a set timeframe (e.g. T3 Karn)
Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?
ktkenshinx, I would love if you could do #3. I was about to request something personally as well for an article I am writing. I was also hoping in relations to the Modern format, specifically what win % in the format overall is affected by number of mulligans.
1. UW Miracles (this appears to be a thing)
2. Living End
3. UW Spirits, with Supreme Phantom again, Vial.
4. Jund, looks pretty straight up, full 4 Raging Ravine normal?
5. Hollow One
6. E-Tron (I had hoped it had died, sorry not sorry!)
7. GDS
8. UW Mana Denial (full 4/4 Spreading Seas and Field of Ruin), with Dragonlord Ojutai
A lot of the usual suspects in there outside the top 8, but our own RAYSTACK (20TH PLACE) is the leader of the Pyro Prison Mono Red thread, grats to him!
At a scan of the top 32 there is a TON of UW Control.
Thanks. This explains a lot. I was wondering why a player I know that plays Jeskai all the time moved to UW. I was wondering why I played the same guy on Pyro Prison Mono Red on Friday and today at an Invitational Qualifier. Then I wondered why my opponent in Round 1 today was on UW Spirits. It didn't really make much sense to me, but then Modern doesn't make much sense to me.
I've come to a revelation, lol. (UW doing well, UW Spirits in the top 8, and Mono Red Prison in the top 32 of a large tournament)
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Considering it's Reid Duke, he probably has a reason to do this!
Yep, the things that he does with that deck are amazing. I know a local Jund player that does pretty well with Jund (even if most Jund players I know have moved on or quit Magic), but it doesn't even come close to Reid. He just is a supernatural person that really puts in the work.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
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Can Grixis players really complain about their walker quality? You got a few Lilis and Jaces to pick from better then most color combos. Unless you mean you want a Walker that Synergies more with Grixis Death Shadow.
Spirits
GDS is a different story, but LoTV is definitely not a control walker, well, at least she does not fit in the traditional "draw-go" style category.
Modern is a diverse enough format atm which is really nice to see. But equating blue based control to UWx or equating Grixis color combination to death shadow is limiting our space for creativity. Grixis colors have very good tools in Kommand + Snapcaster, and Grixis control is definitely powerful enough to be playable atm. But as a fair reactive deck that contributed to 0 significant results in the past few months, it wouldn't be too greedy to ask for something would it? We can't ask for universal answers because it's a white thing, but a better finisher may help us play differently. Maybe not a walker, could be a spell, just hope it's not an easily removable creature
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | URPhoenixUR | UWMiraclesUW |GBRJundGBR | UBFaeriesUB | UBWAd NauseumUBW |GBRWBlueless ShadowGBRW |
MTGA
UBRGrixis ControlUBR | UTempoU
I actually agree. But my focus is more centralized to dimir than grixis, you guys (non GDS grixis) probably need another efficient earlygame value threat to race with honestly, but I do think baleful strix would help so many decks in modern (i have an academy ruins just waiting).
UB/x Faeries
UR Storm
XURWB Affinity
G Elves
UW control
But sure I support more Walkers built for Archetypes and Tribes and less generic walkers.
I would love to read it. These results feel really counterintuitive (wouldn't be the first time experiments help confirm counterintuitive ideas). I definitely want to look more at this myself because it goes against much of my observations in Modern.
In the meantime, I think if we're quibbling about something as trivial as the MWP of people more successful than 99.99% of players, it helps illustrate that the format is the healthiest it's been in many years, and people like me simply have a hard time believing it after how utterly awful most those years have been. Modern is in a great place right now, even if incredibly volatile in matchup variance.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/
Let me know if you have any feedback on the post, blog, or whatever else before I distribute this to a wider audience. To summarize the post:
Takeaway 1: Players with more byes ultimately have higher final standings at Grand Prix.
Takeaway 2: Average tournament standing is identical between Modern and Standard regardless of how many byes a player has.
Takeaway 3: If you have 1 or 2 byes, your average tournament performance is identical in Standard and Modern GP.
Takeaway 4: If you have 3 byes, your average tournament performance is slightly better in Standard than in Modern.
Takeaway 5: If you have 0 byes, your average tournament performance is significantly worse in Standard than in Modern.
Looking forward to feedback!
Spirits
Manual copy paste into Excel. There's a window of time when the page loads before it filter to a 100 player viewcount. You can select all entries in that window. Then it just gets sorted and analyzed in Excel.
Burn
Storm
UWR Control
UWR Control
UWR Control
Hollow One
Affinity (no Green)
Bant Spirits
http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/StarCityGamescom_Team_Open/2018-07-14_modern_Worcester_MA_US/1/
Spirits
Anyway, looks like the final was the teams of Hollow One (winner Team) vs Spirits, with the Semi's Burn and Ben's UWR Control with I may add, my personal favourite 2 Teferi, 1 Jace, split.
Spirits with the 4 of Supreme Phantom! Standard Sets strike again?
Spirits
1. SCG Modern and Legacy Open comparison: top player MWP ceilings/floors
2. Relative performance/success of top pro players in Modern and Standard
3. Calculating matchup percentages from VODs/tournament coverage/observed games
4. Metagame breakdowns
5. Diversity comparisons in different periods of Modern history
6. Data-driven ban/unban analysis
7. Probability of certain decks accomplishing certain things within a set timeframe (e.g. T3 Karn)
Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?
Spirits
ktkenshinx, I would love if you could do #3. I was about to request something personally as well for an article I am writing. I was also hoping in relations to the Modern format, specifically what win % in the format overall is affected by number of mulligans.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-challenge-2018-07-15
1. UW Miracles (this appears to be a thing)
2. Living End
3. UW Spirits, with Supreme Phantom again, Vial.
4. Jund, looks pretty straight up, full 4 Raging Ravine normal?
5. Hollow One
6. E-Tron (I had hoped it had died, sorry not sorry!)
7. GDS
8. UW Mana Denial (full 4/4 Spreading Seas and Field of Ruin), with Dragonlord Ojutai
A lot of the usual suspects in there outside the top 8, but our own RAYSTACK (20TH PLACE) is the leader of the Pyro Prison Mono Red thread, grats to him!
At a scan of the top 32 there is a TON of UW Control.
Spirits
I've come to a revelation, lol. (UW doing well, UW Spirits in the top 8, and Mono Red Prison in the top 32 of a large tournament)
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Yep, the things that he does with that deck are amazing. I know a local Jund player that does pretty well with Jund (even if most Jund players I know have moved on or quit Magic), but it doesn't even come close to Reid. He just is a supernatural person that really puts in the work.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)