I'm just mostly curious as to what the format looks like on a large scale--depending on how it turns out, this could be a good argument for or against increased usage of No Banned List Modern as a format.
The nbl modern format has an entry level for new cards extremely high. I think that it will be too easy to solve and just the same for too long. Look at legacy. Wizards made extra set to give that format new cards and make it more fresh. Nbl modern does not have this support and will become boring quite quickly.
Interestingly I've also had the opposite experience where opponents (friends) would prefer I played U/R prison than grixis shadow because at least they can choose what they play. I honestly hadn't considered anyone would rather be blood moon'd or bridged than thoughtseized but it seems like (locally) there is a substantial casual player base that would rather the illusion of being able to get out from under an effect than it just shred their hands.
Edit - despite never beating U/R prison and having a 60%+ win rate v shadow.
Also thanks ktkenshinx!
I'm not sure I follow. Are these opponents of yours running decks that aren't greatly hampered by prison effects? I can't imagine a world in which a player--especially a casual player--would rather be locked out of plays/attacks entirely than eat a discard spell or two. I've witnessed this frequently when spectating Lantern games locally, where newer players are more likely to play out the game (and grow increasingly frustrated) despite their chances of drawing out of the lock approaching zero. (I'm not attacking Lantern here, by the way--just providing another example of how prison-style effects are generally perceived).
Radical subjectivism is just as faulty of a framework for assessing the Modern metagame as it is for assessing things in the real world. Traditional control decks, traditional midrange decks, and go-wide/tribal decks that pack a respectable amount of interaction should absolutely be the strong backbone of this format if we want it to survive and thrive.
Interesting assertion, but I dont think it holds up.
Modern offers other flavours of the game that cannot be found (often/at all) in Standard. Control, Midrange, and 'Go Wide' certainly are common enough. I played Control to punish a lack of archetype diversity, it worked.
I play Turns when I want to play 'Modern' and not just play 'punish people for thinking they can just be aggro and turn em sideways'.
Turns, Storm, any kind of Prison, none of those types of things will exist in Standard, and THAT is a huge part of the appeal of Modern.
I agree! Part of what makes Modern great is the vast array of viable archetypes. But the greatest part of what makes MtG great in general is--not to insult anyone's intelligence by stating the blindingly obvious--the fact that it's an extremely fun game whose outcomes happen to depend to a significant degree on player skill. What must be avoided, if you ask me, is sacrificing the things that make MtG great in service of Modern's archetype diversity. A preponderance of matches which are neither fun (for both players) nor skill-testing (for either) are anathema to the long-term prospects of this game.
Let me be clear about three things: I think the current meta is quite decent; banning anything should be used only as an absolute last resort; and the existence non-"fair" archetypes is 100% fine with me. I only waded into this discussion to contest the notion that fair deck players are out of line to complain at higher rates, because a metagame comprised predominantly of fair decks (assuming sufficient diversity) will, on the whole, be the most fun and the most skill-testing for a majority of players.
the subjectivity of what leads to fun or enjoyment in magic will always be a divisive topic. i do think there IS a right answer, insofar as it pertains to the majority of players, but its also something we cant find out with any level of certainty. so we fall back on anecdotal evidence and sifting through complaints, some being far more outrageous than others.
it also isnt all or nothing. sure there are some people who think many of the 'unfair' or 'unfun' elements should be excised from the format entirely, but i think that those people are few and far between. however that is separate from believing a better state cant be reached that leaves both parties satisfied, or that there is nothing that can be done without drastic measures (ie bans).
for example wizards unbanning or printing more cards that benefit one side of the fence more than the other. cards like jace and BBE was one step, and so was the printing of damping sphere. a few more steps like these, such as unbanning stoneforge or more catch-all hate cards, could go a long way in giving such players more confidence that they arent placing a self-imposed handicap on themselves while still leaving the door open for players to enjoy the less common elements in magic that are no longer featured in standard.
Couldn't agree more, and recent signs have honestly been encouraging (in a one step back, two steps forward sort of way). Printing Fatal Push, banning Gitaxian Probe, printing Field of Ruin, unbanning Jace and BBE--these all represent firmly positive strides toward making Modern MtG the gold standard of enjoyable, widely accessible, and skill-intensive gaming.
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Nope creature based decks with burn as reach! I would think the same, but the illusion of being able to escape the lock is preferred by many of my local casual circle. (I personally don't understand it either) But I guess the point was that they can still cast their spells which obviously thoughtseized prevents.
Mostly just another (and counterintuitive) perspective.
I can't wait to watch the NBL modern tomorrow. Cedric said this is really an experiment to determine what can not come off the ban list pretty much ever. I predict we will be seeing eye of ugin, skullclamp and Dark Depths do very well. We may see splinter twin, DTT, treasure cruise, mental misstep, Preordain, birthing pod, glimpse of nature, hypergenesis, and a few others too.
But all that said, I am wondering what we will not see, and does that mean it would be ok to unban it?
I predict we do not see very much dread return, GGT, artifact lands, summer bloom or second sunrise. I am definitely NOT calling for these to be unbanned. Some cards I listed as doing well like preordain or twin are often named as possible unbans, but very few people would push for a GGT, summer bloom or second sunrise unban even if the decks perform very poorly in NBL modern.
I am really asking do the results of this tournament really matter at all for unbans or is it only solidifying the status of the most broken cards?
I am open to a list of about 10-12 cards that I think may be acceptable in modern today and I don't think I would be upset if they were unbanned. If those appear oppressive tomorrow I think I will change my mind on the offending card and I will want it to stay banned, but I do not think a card that is under performing tomorrow will change my mind the same way if I thought it should be banned originally.
I dunno. Right now, I'd expect Storm, U/x Tezzerator Prison, Grixis Pyroclamp, W/x D&T, Affinity, Elves, and Eldrazi Aggro to be the clear top teir. Post decks I think are going to be hit hard by Damping Sphere. Miracles has been hit hard by Sorcerous Spyglass of all cards, since it's so easy to cast on turn 1 in NBLM, and there's no FoW for Miracles to use as a crutch. Needle, at least, can be answered with Misstep. Bloom, Combo Dredge, Hypergenesis, Eggs, and Combo Infect are going to see play, and then get promptly destroyed. Bloom and Dredge are just too easy to shut down with common prison elements, though if they get the nuts they're really strong. Hypergenesis, Combo Infect, and Eggs just aren't really that good. Belcher is a wildcard, as always.
Pod, Aggro Dredge, Jund, UB control (not Jim Davis' janky superfriends list), Fairies, Twin, and Reanimator are all solid decks that could do well, but I think meta concerns lock them out of the top tables in larger sample sizes. Pod, Aggro Dredge, and Reanimator get maimed by commonly maindecked cards like Grafdigger's Cage and Spyglass... but they have good beatdown plan b. Fairies needs Chrome Mox in their opener to be effective. Twin, Jund, and UB Control are just too fair to ever really overtake the format.
I'm just mostly curious as to what the format looks like on a large scale--depending on how it turns out, this could be a good argument for or against increased usage of No Banned List Modern as a format.
The nbl modern format has an entry level for new cards extremely high. I think that it will be too easy to solve and just the same for too long. Look at legacy. Wizards made extra set to give that format new cards and make it more fresh. Nbl modern does not have this support and will become boring quite quickly.
They didn't make an extra set (I assume you refer to Conspiracy?) to give it new cards and make it more fresh. They made that to sell more stuff drafting. Conspiracy, 1 and 2, had relatively little to offer Legacy. Sure, some cards in it saw play, but it didn't really have that big of an impact from what I remember. In fact, a lot of people who play Legacy generally don't like the effect newer cards have had on the format
Though interestingly, the deck that won GP Birmingham was filled with cards from recent Standards. Hazoret, Pia and Kiran Nalaar, Chandra Torch of Defiance, Karn Scion of Urza, Abrade, Kozilek's Return, Sorcerous Spyglass, Scab-Clan Berserker...
Ive been playing Storm in Modern and this deck has a lot of turn 3 kills and resilency to grind out games, should I be worried about the deck getting banned since most of my local community hates this deck and wants to see it banned? Every time I play a turn 1 Sleight i get a lot of toxicity and vitrol headed my way...
Guys please opinions on japanese cards. Lost a 3/3 creature against Japan celestial colonade. This guy played all creatures and spells in english cards, but some cards in his manabase was japanese. I dont registrated this really ( my brain say its all fine and all english to me lets attack his empty board)...and i am sure it is a Kind of legal cheating. It is not ok, but i know legal. I Hate such people. I never forget colonade normally, but with this Tricks it can happen one time in 3 years and such people take advantage of this
If I am a customer spending premium amount of dollars, I expect a premium service. Jund falls into the category of a premium deck costing more dollars than a majority of the rest of the format. I'm not getting the desired performance ratio per dollars spent out of the Jund deck because WOTC decided to make the format more diverse.
Ive been playing Storm in Modern and this deck has a lot of turn 3 kills and resilency to grind out games, should I be worried about the deck getting banned since most of my local community hates this deck and wants to see it banned? Every time I play a turn 1 Sleight i get a lot of toxicity and vitrol headed my way...
Storm's metagame share is even lower now than it was in late 2017, and its matchup spectrum is even worse with Humans in the mix. Later last year, I calculated Storm's T3 win % as around 12%, which is under Amulet Bloom but over Affinity, in a range I would describe as being on the watchlist but not in direct danger. This number has undoubtedly dropped, however, just because of the matchup spectrum shifting against Storm. I would suspect it's 10% or lower at this point. Couple that with the lower share and worse finishes across the board, and I think the deck is totally safe. As an added point, Storm already dodged numerous ban periods where Wizards said the format was healthy. If it's numbers were indeed "scarier" at that time and the numbers are less scary now, that is further reason to suggest Storm is likely safe.
Ive been playing Storm in Modern and this deck has a lot of turn 3 kills and resilency to grind out games, should I be worried about the deck getting banned since most of my local community hates this deck and wants to see it banned? Every time I play a turn 1 Sleight i get a lot of toxicity and vitrol headed my way...
Does nobody there play Burn or Humans (skillfully)? Humans being the "top deck" in Modern right now pretty much ensures that Storm won't have something banned, in my opinion. Your opponents probably just have decks that have poor matchups vs. Storm and are unwilling to budge.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
FYI, there is a way to get a good insight in the Competitive League meta on MTGO, however, I am too simply too LAZY to do it, as it is labour intensive.
You can look at the VODs of streamers on Twitch and look at the decks the streamer's opponents are playing and count them. Opponents of Twitch streamers are random, so your results will be unbiased. Daily approx 100 decks will be aired, and to look at a VOD and ID a deck + add it to a sheet costs ~1 minute/deck. If you count 10 decks/day, after a month you have 300 decks, which is way more accurate than the meta presented on sites like MTGGoldfish. With a shared Google spreadsheet you can have multiple people looking, by which you can get way more results.
Last month I spent ~1 hour to get these 48 decks:
DECK SUM
4C Jace value 1
8Rack 0
Abzan 0
Ad Nauseam 1
Affinity 3
Amulet Titan 2
Artifact Value (U) 1
Blue Moon 0
Bogles 1
BridgeVine 0
BTL Scapeshift 1
Burn 1
BW Midrange/Deadguy Ale 0
BW Smallpox 0
BW Tokens 0
Copycat (4C) 2
Death and Taxes 0
Death's Shadow Jund 0
Dredge 1
Eldrazi (RG) 0
Eldrazi and Taxes 0
Eldrazi Tron 0
Elves (GB) 3
Elves (GW) 1
Esper Midrange 0
Faeries 0
Goblins 0
Grishoalbrand 0
Grixis Control 0
Grixis Death's Shadow 0
GWx Vizier Company 1
GWx Value Nykthos brew 1
Gx Tron 4
Hollow One (BR) 3
Hollow One (GR) 0
Hollow One (Other) 1
Humans 4
Infect 2
Jeskai Control 0
Jeskai Midrange 0
Jund 5
Jund (non-classical) 1
KCI Eggs 0
Kiki Company 0
Lantern 0
Living End 0
Mardu 4
Merfolk 0
Mill 0
Nykthos Devotion (G) 0
Ponza (RG) 1
Rx Prison 0
Skred Red 1
Soul Sisters 0
Soulfayer 1
Stompy 0
Taking Turns 0
Titanshift 0
U Tron 0
UBx Tezzeret 0
UR Storm 0
UR TiTi 1
UW Control 0
Zoo 0
Then I decided this costs me too much effort for no reward. Anyway, if someone really wants to know the Modern Meta, you know now there is a way, but it takes (a group) effort to do it. Everyone is free to pick this idea up. I am just too lazy.
I have a metagame shares section on my Gx Tron spreadsheet which shows the same thing - the "true" MTGO meta. It's a bit messy cause I ran out of room and have been too lazy to fix it, but the data is there halfway down the page. All that data is from Competitive Leagues with a few larger MTGO events sprinkled in. The only issue is that it's not adjusted for timeframe, though the large majority (~80%) of it is from the end of March until now. So for example Jeskai Control is way underrepresented compared to if I took a snapshot of the most recent month. Maybe I'll consider actually doing something like that.
It really ticked me off that they had the gall to admit a Counterspell reprint was on the table for Dominaria. All these years of Modern and I'm still clunking around with Mana Leak, Logic Knot and Negate which are all different levels of fine but never wat I really want. I think a Counterspell reprint would do more for control than Search For Azcanta, Teferi and even Jace the Mind Sculptor could possibly do.
At least Wizard's Retort's existance let us know a reprint is not as far away as once thought and maybe even close to becoming a reality any time soon
It really ticked me off that they had the gall to admit a Counterspell reprint was on the table for Dominaria. All these years of Modern and I'm still clunking around with Mana Leak, Logic Knot and Negate which are all different levels of fine but never wat I really want. I think a Counterspell reprint would do more for control than Search For Azcanta, Teferi and even Jace the Mind Sculptor could possibly do.
At least Wizard's Retort's existance let us know a reprint is not as far away as once thought and maybe even close to becoming a reality any time soon
Maybe for Zhalfir Reborn, Zhalfir Returns in 5 to 6 years lol.
SCG has 0 Twin in NBL Modern Top8. 5 Eldrazi decks.
I knew there would be a lot of eldrazi but 5 is more than I expected. No skullclamp, twin or SFM in the top 8 that I have heard. I liked how the commentators all talked about how bad hypergenesis was.
I know the event is not over yet, but we probably have all the info we need from this event already to discuss if anyone's opinion changed on unbanning any particular cards.
It really ticked me off that they had the gall to admit a Counterspell reprint was on the table for Dominaria. All these years of Modern and I'm still clunking around with Mana Leak, Logic Knot and Negate which are all different levels of fine but never wat I really want. I think a Counterspell reprint would do more for control than Search For Azcanta, Teferi and even Jace the Mind Sculptor could possibly do.
At least Wizard's Retort's existance let us know a reprint is not as far away as once thought and maybe even close to becoming a reality any time soon
as far as i know they just said they discussed the possibility. that discussion probably took all of 5 seconds, at which point the laughing died down and they broke for coffee.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
NBL modern deck lists are posted. i think its safe to say that eye of ugin, dark depths, and mental misstep shouldnt be unbanned. glad we solved that mystery.
NBL modern deck lists are posted. i think its safe to say that eye of ugin, dark depths, and mental misstep shouldnt be unbanned. glad we solved that mystery.
NBL modern deck lists are posted. i think its safe to say that eye of ugin, dark depths, and mental misstep shouldnt be unbanned. glad we solved that mystery.
Dark Depths and Eye of Ugin I understand, but Mental Misstep? Only three decks in the Top 8 ran that card, and the percentage of the Top 16 running it is only slightly higher (3 decks in 9-16 ran it maindeck and one deck ran a few copies in the sideboard).
Not to say that Mental Misstep should be unbanned, simply that from these results alone I don't see a particularly strong argument for it.
What I'm curious about is whether the Eldrazi/Depths dominance came from the decks actually being that good in the context of the format, or people not preparing. I know I wasn't expecting those decks to be as big as they were, I thought Skullclamp decks of different varieties were going to make up most of that Top 8 (the highest-placing Skullclamp deck was in 15th place). I hope we can see another event like this going forward to get a better idea of whether this is the actual metagame or just the results for this one event.
There was a good amount of UR Delver that seems to have done poorly in Day 2, as it's tied for the second-most-played deck in Day 2 but not a single copy made it into the Top 32.
There was a good amount of UR Delver that seems to have done poorly in Day 2, as it's tied for the second-most-played deck in Day 2 but not a single copy made it into the Top 32.
There are at least 2 UR Delver lists in the Top 32, at 19th place and 28th place. One played Thing in the Ice, the other played Monastery Swiftspear. But since I have an unnatural fixation on Twin though, that classification of utterly horrible conversion belongs to a different UR deck. The one that was the 4th most played on Day 2 with zero copies in T32.
Dark Depths and Eye of Ugin I understand, but Mental Misstep? Only three decks in the Top 8 ran that card, and the percentage of the Top 16 running it is only slightly higher (3 decks in 9-16 ran it maindeck and one deck ran a few copies in the sideboard).
Not to say that Mental Misstep should be unbanned, simply that from these results alone I don't see a particularly strong argument for it.
What I'm curious about is whether the Eldrazi/Depths dominance came from the decks actually being that good in the context of the format, or people not preparing. I know I wasn't expecting those decks to be as big as they were, I thought Skullclamp decks of different varieties were going to make up most of that Top 8 (the highest-placing Skullclamp deck was in 15th place). I hope we can see another event like this going forward to get a better idea of whether this is the actual metagame or just the results for this one event.
yeah i guess that is a fair point on misstep. every blue deck was running it of course, and it was included in i think only 1 non-blue deck. i didnt go through every list.
im sure a lot of the results hinged on the format being largely unknown. you can see it even amongst the same decks, which had a pretty wide range of configurations. which only indicates that no one had any real clue on what the optimal versions of each deck should look like (ie BG depths including DRS or not). then you have BBD being the lone miracles player among the top spots, which is probably a testament to his skill at the game more than anything else.
the tournament may have been an experiment, but experiments need to be repeated. though im not sure if the NBL modern would shrink or grow in diversity if people were given reason to figure it out. a deck like eldrazi might just be the best thing full stop.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
There was a good amount of UR Delver that seems to have done poorly in Day 2, as it's tied for the second-most-played deck in Day 2 but not a single copy made it into the Top 32.
There are at least 2 UR Delver lists in the Top 32, at 19th place and 28th place. One played Thing in the Ice, the other played Monastery Swiftspear. But since I have an unnatural fixation on Twin though, that classification of utterly horrible conversion belongs to a different UR deck. The one that was the 4th most played on Day 2 with zero copies in T32.
You're right. I have no idea how I missed that.
Upon some further reflection, I think lack of preparation for Eldrazi (and Depths) could be a reason it did so well. Leading up to it, most articles I saw about No Banned List Modern didn't really say much (if anything) about Eldrazi. And indeed, the lists do seem soft to Eldrazi. Look at the Miracles deck that got 2nd place: 2 Supreme Verdict, 1 Terminus. Those cards are great against Eldrazi decks but they're in short supply, most likely due to expecting the metagame to mostly be combo decks.
I do really want to see another big event like this, because I suspect that with Eldrazi having such an obvious target on its back now, it won't have as impressive of a finish next time.
If nothing else, this all shows that No Banned List Modern isn't Fast Combo: The Format like a lot of people seemed to have assumed.
If anything, it shows how utterly and completely busted the Eldrazi creatures are though. Almost all the other decks are playing tons and tons of banned cards that in theory are "totally busted." Eldrazi decks were just playing 4 Eyes and maybe 1-2 Jittes... that's it... and they utterly crushed anything and everything else. It's actually depressing how unbelievably good Eldrazi creatures are and how little it takes to have them completely break a format.
Meanwhile, Stoneforge and Twin are nowhere to be seen, even with Jitte and all the cantrips and all the Digs and Cruises and Missteps. Maybe they're not actually as busted as people think...
While I agree that Stoneforge isn't busted (and arguably Twin), a poor performance in NBL Modern doesn't prove that a card isn't busted in Modern, only that a card isn't busted in a format with an objectively higher power ceiling. The NBL tournaments in the long run will only ever show what needs to stay on the list, not what can come off the list.
That being said, it does make me laugh that the most busted deck in NBL Modern is the only busted deck I've seen since I started Modern (a little before the Twin ban for perspective). Not super meaningful, but good for a chuckle
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Decks
Modern: UWUW Control UBRGrixis Shadow URIzzet Phoenix
I have argued in support of mental misstep a time or two, but there are others I would rather have unbanned. MM would see lots of play and it may cause some problems, but the old saying of "every deck will use MM as a 4 of autoinclude" is just wrong and these results show evidence of that.
My view seems to be in line with Todd Anderson, the management of the ban list is just lazy or overly risk adverse. He argued that some cards won't be unbanned because they either will suck and have no effect on the meta or (unlilely but possibly) be too good, so why unban them at all. JTMS is a good example, he was banned for years but he isn't even doing that much. He's good but not over powering and mismanagent of the banned list keep him off of the table all that time. I can think of several other cards that were handled the same way unnecessarily like AV, sword of the meek, bitterblossom and some others. If a card is probably not going to be teir one anyway, unban it and let people play it if the want too.
If I over looked any of these please correct me, but in the top 32 I see 0 twin, hypergenesis, artifact lands, GSZ, dread return, skullclamp, glimpse. Very little blazing shoal, punishing fire, SFM, Storm pieces, SDT and others.
I am not calling for unbanning all these cards, but I am saying I can point at several that should be considered more seriously for an unban.
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The nbl modern format has an entry level for new cards extremely high. I think that it will be too easy to solve and just the same for too long. Look at legacy. Wizards made extra set to give that format new cards and make it more fresh. Nbl modern does not have this support and will become boring quite quickly.
Modern:
I'm not sure I follow. Are these opponents of yours running decks that aren't greatly hampered by prison effects? I can't imagine a world in which a player--especially a casual player--would rather be locked out of plays/attacks entirely than eat a discard spell or two. I've witnessed this frequently when spectating Lantern games locally, where newer players are more likely to play out the game (and grow increasingly frustrated) despite their chances of drawing out of the lock approaching zero. (I'm not attacking Lantern here, by the way--just providing another example of how prison-style effects are generally perceived).
I agree! Part of what makes Modern great is the vast array of viable archetypes. But the greatest part of what makes MtG great in general is--not to insult anyone's intelligence by stating the blindingly obvious--the fact that it's an extremely fun game whose outcomes happen to depend to a significant degree on player skill. What must be avoided, if you ask me, is sacrificing the things that make MtG great in service of Modern's archetype diversity. A preponderance of matches which are neither fun (for both players) nor skill-testing (for either) are anathema to the long-term prospects of this game.
Let me be clear about three things: I think the current meta is quite decent; banning anything should be used only as an absolute last resort; and the existence non-"fair" archetypes is 100% fine with me. I only waded into this discussion to contest the notion that fair deck players are out of line to complain at higher rates, because a metagame comprised predominantly of fair decks (assuming sufficient diversity) will, on the whole, be the most fun and the most skill-testing for a majority of players.
Couldn't agree more, and recent signs have honestly been encouraging (in a one step back, two steps forward sort of way). Printing Fatal Push, banning Gitaxian Probe, printing Field of Ruin, unbanning Jace and BBE--these all represent firmly positive strides toward making Modern MtG the gold standard of enjoyable, widely accessible, and skill-intensive gaming.
YouTube Channel, with deck techs, gameplay, analysis, spoiler reviews, and more!
Mostly just another (and counterintuitive) perspective.
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
I dunno. Right now, I'd expect Storm, U/x Tezzerator Prison, Grixis Pyroclamp, W/x D&T, Affinity, Elves, and Eldrazi Aggro to be the clear top teir. Post decks I think are going to be hit hard by Damping Sphere. Miracles has been hit hard by Sorcerous Spyglass of all cards, since it's so easy to cast on turn 1 in NBLM, and there's no FoW for Miracles to use as a crutch. Needle, at least, can be answered with Misstep. Bloom, Combo Dredge, Hypergenesis, Eggs, and Combo Infect are going to see play, and then get promptly destroyed. Bloom and Dredge are just too easy to shut down with common prison elements, though if they get the nuts they're really strong. Hypergenesis, Combo Infect, and Eggs just aren't really that good. Belcher is a wildcard, as always.
Pod, Aggro Dredge, Jund, UB control (not Jim Davis' janky superfriends list), Fairies, Twin, and Reanimator are all solid decks that could do well, but I think meta concerns lock them out of the top tables in larger sample sizes. Pod, Aggro Dredge, and Reanimator get maimed by commonly maindecked cards like Grafdigger's Cage and Spyglass... but they have good beatdown plan b. Fairies needs Chrome Mox in their opener to be effective. Twin, Jund, and UB Control are just too fair to ever really overtake the format.
Though interestingly, the deck that won GP Birmingham was filled with cards from recent Standards. Hazoret, Pia and Kiran Nalaar, Chandra Torch of Defiance, Karn Scion of Urza, Abrade, Kozilek's Return, Sorcerous Spyglass, Scab-Clan Berserker...
Ive been playing Storm in Modern and this deck has a lot of turn 3 kills and resilency to grind out games, should I be worried about the deck getting banned since most of my local community hates this deck and wants to see it banned? Every time I play a turn 1 Sleight i get a lot of toxicity and vitrol headed my way...
Storm's metagame share is even lower now than it was in late 2017, and its matchup spectrum is even worse with Humans in the mix. Later last year, I calculated Storm's T3 win % as around 12%, which is under Amulet Bloom but over Affinity, in a range I would describe as being on the watchlist but not in direct danger. This number has undoubtedly dropped, however, just because of the matchup spectrum shifting against Storm. I would suspect it's 10% or lower at this point. Couple that with the lower share and worse finishes across the board, and I think the deck is totally safe. As an added point, Storm already dodged numerous ban periods where Wizards said the format was healthy. If it's numbers were indeed "scarier" at that time and the numbers are less scary now, that is further reason to suggest Storm is likely safe.
Does nobody there play Burn or Humans (skillfully)? Humans being the "top deck" in Modern right now pretty much ensures that Storm won't have something banned, in my opinion. Your opponents probably just have decks that have poor matchups vs. Storm and are unwilling to budge.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spreadsheet again here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ysFDPLK2vAYUwj0zgcAAekmtwAlxrJypwg8PU-VqD3E/edit?usp=sharing
At least Wizard's Retort's existance let us know a reprint is not as far away as once thought and maybe even close to becoming a reality any time soon
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Maybe for Zhalfir Reborn, Zhalfir Returns in 5 to 6 years lol.
I knew there would be a lot of eldrazi but 5 is more than I expected. No skullclamp, twin or SFM in the top 8 that I have heard. I liked how the commentators all talked about how bad hypergenesis was.
I know the event is not over yet, but we probably have all the info we need from this event already to discuss if anyone's opinion changed on unbanning any particular cards.
as far as i know they just said they discussed the possibility. that discussion probably took all of 5 seconds, at which point the laughing died down and they broke for coffee.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Edit to avoid double post:
0 Twin in top 32 of NBL Modern: http://www.starcitygames.com/decks/results/format/28/event_ID/47/start_date/09-06-2018/end_date/10-06-2018/city/Roanoke/start/1/finish/32/w_perc/0/g_perc/0/r_perc/0/b_perc/0/u_perc/0/a_perc/0/order_1/finish/limit/25/start_num/0/
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
decks
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)And Twin is totally fine, with 0 copies anywhere in the T32.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Not to say that Mental Misstep should be unbanned, simply that from these results alone I don't see a particularly strong argument for it.
What I'm curious about is whether the Eldrazi/Depths dominance came from the decks actually being that good in the context of the format, or people not preparing. I know I wasn't expecting those decks to be as big as they were, I thought Skullclamp decks of different varieties were going to make up most of that Top 8 (the highest-placing Skullclamp deck was in 15th place). I hope we can see another event like this going forward to get a better idea of whether this is the actual metagame or just the results for this one event.
Incidentally, here's also the Day 2 metagame data:
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/4378_day_2_metagame_breakdown.html
There was a good amount of UR Delver that seems to have done poorly in Day 2, as it's tied for the second-most-played deck in Day 2 but not a single copy made it into the Top 32.There are at least 2 UR Delver lists in the Top 32, at 19th place and 28th place. One played Thing in the Ice, the other played Monastery Swiftspear. But since I have an unnatural fixation on Twin though, that classification of utterly horrible conversion belongs to a different UR deck. The one that was the 4th most played on Day 2 with zero copies in T32.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
yeah i guess that is a fair point on misstep. every blue deck was running it of course, and it was included in i think only 1 non-blue deck. i didnt go through every list.
im sure a lot of the results hinged on the format being largely unknown. you can see it even amongst the same decks, which had a pretty wide range of configurations. which only indicates that no one had any real clue on what the optimal versions of each deck should look like (ie BG depths including DRS or not). then you have BBD being the lone miracles player among the top spots, which is probably a testament to his skill at the game more than anything else.
the tournament may have been an experiment, but experiments need to be repeated. though im not sure if the NBL modern would shrink or grow in diversity if people were given reason to figure it out. a deck like eldrazi might just be the best thing full stop.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Upon some further reflection, I think lack of preparation for Eldrazi (and Depths) could be a reason it did so well. Leading up to it, most articles I saw about No Banned List Modern didn't really say much (if anything) about Eldrazi. And indeed, the lists do seem soft to Eldrazi. Look at the Miracles deck that got 2nd place: 2 Supreme Verdict, 1 Terminus. Those cards are great against Eldrazi decks but they're in short supply, most likely due to expecting the metagame to mostly be combo decks.
I do really want to see another big event like this, because I suspect that with Eldrazi having such an obvious target on its back now, it won't have as impressive of a finish next time.
If nothing else, this all shows that No Banned List Modern isn't Fast Combo: The Format like a lot of people seemed to have assumed.
Meanwhile, Stoneforge and Twin are nowhere to be seen, even with Jitte and all the cantrips and all the Digs and Cruises and Missteps. Maybe they're not actually as busted as people think...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
That being said, it does make me laugh that the most busted deck in NBL Modern is the only busted deck I've seen since I started Modern (a little before the Twin ban for perspective). Not super meaningful, but good for a chuckle
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
My view seems to be in line with Todd Anderson, the management of the ban list is just lazy or overly risk adverse. He argued that some cards won't be unbanned because they either will suck and have no effect on the meta or (unlilely but possibly) be too good, so why unban them at all. JTMS is a good example, he was banned for years but he isn't even doing that much. He's good but not over powering and mismanagent of the banned list keep him off of the table all that time. I can think of several other cards that were handled the same way unnecessarily like AV, sword of the meek, bitterblossom and some others. If a card is probably not going to be teir one anyway, unban it and let people play it if the want too.
If I over looked any of these please correct me, but in the top 32 I see 0 twin, hypergenesis, artifact lands, GSZ, dread return, skullclamp, glimpse. Very little blazing shoal, punishing fire, SFM, Storm pieces, SDT and others.
I am not calling for unbanning all these cards, but I am saying I can point at several that should be considered more seriously for an unban.