I'm definitely hoping Teferi explodes blue so i can sell it off for a reasonable price.
Where do you guys see the meta heading in the next six months?
If Teferi is good enough and control builds to punish Aggro, hopefully we end up in a cyclical meta. I dont care if Control is a dog to Tron (real tron, get out of here with your 'im midrange' ETron...) but a cycle would be best.
You know what as I type this, the issue is not Aggro losing to Control, shouldnt aggro BEAT control? Isnt the issue here that Midrange loses to aggro, shouldnt Jund be the one picking off all these Aggro decks, or am I wrong on that?
You know what as I type this, the issue is not Aggro losing to Control, shouldnt aggro BEAT control? Isnt the issue here that Midrange loses to aggro, shouldnt Jund be the one picking off all these Aggro decks, or am I wrong on that?
Yes to both points. Aggro should beat control and midrange should beat aggro. It is a bit simplistic to look at it that way, but my one "major" complaint since I switched to playing mostly modern has been aggro decks being a bit over-represented / too strong. I say this incredibly loosely though since there isn't any 1 deck causing this issue or perception and frankly the data doesn't even support it being THAT big of an issue on a higher level (GPs and such). I personally gravitate towards 2 types of decks combo or removal.dec and in both camps aggro has always been the hardest match ups.
Now I'm not a Jund player in particular, but a lot of the challenge with Jund style decks vs aggro strategies in modern is that your 1 for 1 removal isn't enough to get you there and sometimes your creatures aren't enough to allow you to turn the corner. Aggro decks can just have god hands that make it damn near impossible to win without your own god hand that has to also line up perfectly with answering theirs. I can recall several matches that I have lost to some seemingly absurd lines of play (looking at you devastating summons), but it happens and I move on. Not like I'm not guilty of absurd lines of play myself
You know what as I type this, the issue is not Aggro losing to Control, shouldnt aggro BEAT control? Isnt the issue here that Midrange loses to aggro, shouldnt Jund be the one picking off all these Aggro decks, or am I wrong on that?
The (incredibly oversimplified) conventional wisdom is that Control beats Combo because permission, Combo beats Aggro because speed, and Aggro beats Control because efficiency. It gets a lot more complicated when you add tempo, ramp/big mana, midrange, disruptive aggro etc. into the picture, but to put it in broad strokes off the top of my head: Control beats up on ramp (counter what they ramp into) and some midrange (you're too big; they're too slow) and adds disruptive aggro to its weak matchups. Granted I'm going off of what I can remember from metagames like 5 years ago.
Modern is weird, because it's defined by a ****-ton of pushed, undercosted creatures that often aren't worth running in eternal formats, near-top-tier creature removal that therefore is a lot less useful, and terrible permission, selection, and (Control/Tempo) threats. That means Control can't police Ramp or Combo, unless it's creature combo, like Bloo or Infect or even the Tempo-Combo-hybrid Twin back in the day. So it has to either cheese out its opponent's mana base like UW/UR, or load up on the one pillar of Control that Modern actually has in spades like Jeskai and kind of Grixis and overload on creature removal.
IMO, this is why we see Control beating aggro, but losing to the solitaire decks that it's supposed to beat - which then need intermittent bans since Control can't police them. It's just that those are the tools Control players have to work with in this format.
Incidentally, this makes for a relatively narrow band that fair decks can walk and succeed. Which is why many fair decks to post up results are doing so by adopting unfair measures - UR with Blood Moons, and Pyro with Faithless Looting/Bedlam Reveler abuse, plus Blood Moon.
Yeah, fully admit its overly simplistic, especially when many decks are working on multiple axis, it just seem weird to me.
EDIT: Had another quick game with Teferi.
Turn 4 - EOT Cryptic Bounce/Draw
Turn 5 - Teferi - Untap Island/Plains as I had a Path
Turn 6 - Jace - Brainstorm, Draw/Untap Island and Sulfur Falls leaving up 4 mana for Cryptic
THAT feels way more powerful than Jace 'fateseal omg!' ever has.
Yeah, fully admit its overly simplistic, especially when many decks are working on multiple axis, it just seem weird to me.
No, I think you're spot-on, simplifications and all. Working with shortcuts is necessary to keep the conversation from taking an extra 10 pages of text.
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
When I brought up those models years ago here, people told me that it was "a thing of the past." Combo is no longer supposed to beat Aggro. That's what I read right here on mtgs. The problem that I have with the model being messed up is this - if Aggro is doing well vs. decks that it normally does poorly against, but does well vs. some of the same archetypes (which I'm not so sure it beats Control as we know it in Modern), then it can have too many good matchups. Therefore, the only matchups that are weak are other Aggro decks trying to goldfish earlier.
That right there seems like a solid representation of our current meta. It is overly simplistic, but there's no denying that Aggro is where it's at for Modern right now. You are doing yourself a disservice if you are trying something that begins with a handicap. For me, it's worth having a slight handicap to play the Combo decks that I love and know how to play well. Is it worth it for others?
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
That right there seems like a solid representation of our current meta. It is overly simplistic, but there's no denying that Aggro is where it's at for Modern right now. You are doing yourself a disservice if you are trying something that begins with a handicap. For me, it's worth having a slight handicap to play the Combo decks that I love and know how to play well. Is it worth it for others?
I think thats why we still see people jamming other decks. Its certainly why I play what I do. There isnt a card in my deck that I dont like casting. On the flip side, running out creature after creature...just doesnt work for me.
Am I at a disadvantage? Almost certainly, but I'm enjoying it more than I would otherwise.
Traditional naming conventions fall apart in modern very quickly. Is Splinter Twin a control deck or a combo deck? What about Breach Moon? Is Tron a control deck or a combo deck or is a ramp deck. Vizier combo decks are combo decks, but the back up beat down plan wins a lot of games just like birthing pod used to be.
Traditional naming conventions fall apart in modern very quickly.
This is only true from an essentialist perspective, i.e. everything must fit cleanly into exactly one category.
From a more organic/hollistic perspective, the model holds up just fine. There's nothing threatening in Twin being tempo-combo, Breach Moon being control-combo, Vizier being midrange-combo, and the Grixis lists of yore being midrange-control.
That those hybrids or blurry lines exist doesn't invalidate the decks that do fit into the categories pretty neatly, or the information we can get from examining how they interact. Like Jeskai (Control), Storm (Combo), Mardu Pyromancer (Midrange), Infect (Creature Combo), Ironworks (Combo), etc.
I think thats why we still see people jamming other decks. Its certainly why I play what I do. There isnt a card in my deck that I dont like casting. On the flip side, running out creature after creature...just doesnt work for me.
Am I at a disadvantage? Almost certainly, but I'm enjoying it more than I would otherwise.
I envy you that. Playing Spreading Seas and Blood Moon feels like the absolute opposite of what I want to be doing when I play Control. Jeskai is a bit more like it (as is Grixis), but so tenuously meta-dependent that it's better for my peace of mind not to rely on it.
See, I loathe casting Blood Moon. It feels like garbage. People either play around it (if smart) activate salt (if not smart) or are playing a deck that folds to it, and have answers (hey Tron).
I think Aggro beating Combo right now is the defining quality to the Modern meta. And this is almost entirely because of Humans, and Meddling Mage specifically. It's disrupting the entire meta "eco-system". Humans not only has a great matchup against decks that it should traditionally be weak too, it's almost completely removed them from the meta game at large. This in turn affects how well other decks are going to perform, independent of their specific Humans match up. If combo is less viable you see less combo at tournaments, and that trickles down to seeing less decks that beat combo, less decks that are good against the decks that beat combo...
I maintain that humans is closer to aggro-control than it is to aggro. It's tricky because its control elements are all on bodies, but the deck runs more control elements than non-control (16 of its creatures are dedicated to board or hand control -- 4 freebooter, 4 thalia, 4 meddling mage, 4 reflector mage). And half (or more) the sideboard is additional disruption.
The most aggro interpretation of it is a Fish deck that sits right on the border of midrange, and you can interpret it as aggro-control.
If you've played the deck a lot, the go-wide thalia's lieutenant kills are the exception. It's more often you're disrupting and chipping and then mantis-bolting for the win.
Combo decks losing to aggro control or fish decks, news at 11
I maintain that humans is closer to aggro-control than it is to aggro. It's tricky because its control elements are all on bodies, but the deck runs more control elements than non-control (16 of its creatures are dedicated to board or hand control -- 4 freebooter, 4 thalia, 4 meddling mage, 4 reflector mage). And half (or more) the sideboard is additional disruption.
The most aggro interpretation of it is a Fish deck that sits right on the border of midrange, and you can interpret it as aggro-control.
If you've played the deck a lot, the go-wide thalia's lieutenant kills are the exception. It's more often you're disrupting and chipping and then mantis-bolting for the win.
Combo decks losing to aggro control or fish decks, news at 11
Generally agreed, although I'll reiterate that I think the term "disruptive aggro" is both pretty well accepted and has less baggage than "aggro-control" (which people have picked fights over here before).
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
Indeed, Disruptive Aggro, at least makes sense. Aggro-Control, are conflicting terms as far as the 'simplistic' categories goes.
What would be an aggro control deck? Humans, I guess it does have options to disrupt with Reflector Mage, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter primarily but its aggro cause it wins mainly through chipping away via creature damage.
No offense intended, but that's needlessly splitting hairs. When people say, "Modern is overrun with aggro" they are included Humans in that group of decks. It's an aggro deck for all intents and purposes. '
The problem though, is that it's too disruptive for being aggro.
i mean its just a really good beatdown deck. call it whatever you want. if humans players feel better if it isnt called aggro because of the negative stigma that comes with that label then go for it. humans is a aggro-prison-disruptive-control-tempo deck. glad we cleared that up.
the deck hasnt violated any of the 'rules' (meta share, results, turn 4, etc). until it does i dont see how it qualifies as a problem.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Indeed, Disruptive Aggro, at least makes sense. Aggro-Control, are conflicting terms as far as the 'simplistic' categories goes.
What would be an aggro control deck? Humans, I guess it does have options to disrupt with Reflector Mage, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter primarily but its aggro cause it wins mainly through chipping away via creature damage.
Yeah thats the thing, I dont believe in 'Aggro-Control' its nonsense. Disruptive Aggro, or calling it a 'Fish' deck as Merforlk set the initial template, thats fine, I can get behind that. Saying its 'Controlling' on the Aggro spectrum, as Hollow One is 'Combo' or whatever on the Aggro spectrum, I can get behind that.
Disruptive Aggro seems the best descriptor, but in the end its Aggro.
Indeed, Disruptive Aggro, at least makes sense. Aggro-Control, are conflicting terms as far as the 'simplistic' categories goes.
What would be an aggro control deck? Humans, I guess it does have options to disrupt with Reflector Mage, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter primarily but its aggro cause it wins mainly through chipping away via creature damage.
Yeah thats the thing, I dont believe in 'Aggro-Control' its nonsense. Disruptive Aggro, or calling it a 'Fish' deck as Merforlk set the initial template, thats fine, I can get behind that. Saying its 'Controlling' on the Aggro spectrum, as Hollow One is 'Combo' or whatever on the Aggro spectrum, I can get behind that.
Disruptive Aggro seems the best descriptor, but in the end its Aggro.
I think you can define a deck based on how it gets to its win condition and what said win condition is.
Humans can win on turn 3. It can also win on turn 4 with regularity. You could compare that to Affinity, which can win on turn 2, but on turn 3-4 with some regularity.
Humans has the disruptive element and often when that slows down their clock slightly, it also hampers the opponent so much that they also cannot win early or are reliant on top decks. Does that sound familiar? Jund is one of the main decks that traded discard for targeted cards in an opponent's hand and asked the question, "can you top deck better than me?"
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
But in my opinion the main reason that the traditional roles of combo beats aggro etc etc being almost totally reversed in modern is because of the adherence to a 'turn 4 rule'. Combo decks aren't allowed to roam free and so they get pushed/banned up against turn 4. As pointed out aggro decks with their god hands kill on turn 3 in this format, just flipping that one simple thing on it's head means control doesn't pack the counterspells it's got (what I wouldn't give for spell pierce and negate to be maindeckable) and then control has to pack removal for days to try and keep aggro check. But since that isn't its natural role does it kind of badly.
I agree with this. Combo decks are supposed to goldfish quicker than Aggro decks. The issue is that Combo decks have been easier to hate out or fell on their faces much more often in the past. I don't know if it's just going to be tougher to hate out Combo decks or players in Modern just haven't tried hard enough.
Creatures are supposed to be a bit slower on a goldfish, but more resilient to hate. Most creatures are pushed nowadays if you compare them to creatures 10 years ago and beyond.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
But in my opinion the main reason that the traditional roles of combo beats aggro etc etc being almost totally reversed in modern is because of the adherence to a 'turn 4 rule'. Combo decks aren't allowed to roam free and so they get pushed/banned up against turn 4. As pointed out aggro decks with their god hands kill on turn 3 in this format, just flipping that one simple thing on it's head means control doesn't pack the counterspells it's got (what I wouldn't give for spell pierce and negate to be maindeckable) and then control has to pack removal for days to try and keep aggro check. But since that isn't its natural role does it kind of badly.
Absolutely. The Turn-4 Rule artificially constraining the speed of decks is a big part of it. Not the whole story though IMO.
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Playing UX Mana Denial until Modern gets the answers it needs.
WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
If Teferi is good enough and control builds to punish Aggro, hopefully we end up in a cyclical meta. I dont care if Control is a dog to Tron (real tron, get out of here with your 'im midrange' ETron...) but a cycle would be best.
You know what as I type this, the issue is not Aggro losing to Control, shouldnt aggro BEAT control? Isnt the issue here that Midrange loses to aggro, shouldnt Jund be the one picking off all these Aggro decks, or am I wrong on that?
Spirits
Yes to both points. Aggro should beat control and midrange should beat aggro. It is a bit simplistic to look at it that way, but my one "major" complaint since I switched to playing mostly modern has been aggro decks being a bit over-represented / too strong. I say this incredibly loosely though since there isn't any 1 deck causing this issue or perception and frankly the data doesn't even support it being THAT big of an issue on a higher level (GPs and such). I personally gravitate towards 2 types of decks combo or removal.dec and in both camps aggro has always been the hardest match ups.
Now I'm not a Jund player in particular, but a lot of the challenge with Jund style decks vs aggro strategies in modern is that your 1 for 1 removal isn't enough to get you there and sometimes your creatures aren't enough to allow you to turn the corner. Aggro decks can just have god hands that make it damn near impossible to win without your own god hand that has to also line up perfectly with answering theirs. I can recall several matches that I have lost to some seemingly absurd lines of play (looking at you devastating summons), but it happens and I move on. Not like I'm not guilty of absurd lines of play myself
The (incredibly oversimplified) conventional wisdom is that Control beats Combo because permission, Combo beats Aggro because speed, and Aggro beats Control because efficiency. It gets a lot more complicated when you add tempo, ramp/big mana, midrange, disruptive aggro etc. into the picture, but to put it in broad strokes off the top of my head: Control beats up on ramp (counter what they ramp into) and some midrange (you're too big; they're too slow) and adds disruptive aggro to its weak matchups. Granted I'm going off of what I can remember from metagames like 5 years ago.
Modern is weird, because it's defined by a ****-ton of pushed, undercosted creatures that often aren't worth running in eternal formats, near-top-tier creature removal that therefore is a lot less useful, and terrible permission, selection, and (Control/Tempo) threats. That means Control can't police Ramp or Combo, unless it's creature combo, like Bloo or Infect or even the Tempo-Combo-hybrid Twin back in the day. So it has to either cheese out its opponent's mana base like UW/UR, or load up on the one pillar of Control that Modern actually has in spades like Jeskai and kind of Grixis and overload on creature removal.
IMO, this is why we see Control beating aggro, but losing to the solitaire decks that it's supposed to beat - which then need intermittent bans since Control can't police them. It's just that those are the tools Control players have to work with in this format.
Incidentally, this makes for a relatively narrow band that fair decks can walk and succeed. Which is why many fair decks to post up results are doing so by adopting unfair measures - UR with Blood Moons, and Pyro with Faithless Looting/Bedlam Reveler abuse, plus Blood Moon.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
EDIT: Had another quick game with Teferi.
Turn 4 - EOT Cryptic Bounce/Draw
Turn 5 - Teferi - Untap Island/Plains as I had a Path
Turn 6 - Jace - Brainstorm, Draw/Untap Island and Sulfur Falls leaving up 4 mana for Cryptic
THAT feels way more powerful than Jace 'fateseal omg!' ever has.
Spirits
No, I think you're spot-on, simplifications and all. Working with shortcuts is necessary to keep the conversation from taking an extra 10 pages of text.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
That right there seems like a solid representation of our current meta. It is overly simplistic, but there's no denying that Aggro is where it's at for Modern right now. You are doing yourself a disservice if you are trying something that begins with a handicap. For me, it's worth having a slight handicap to play the Combo decks that I love and know how to play well. Is it worth it for others?
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)I think thats why we still see people jamming other decks. Its certainly why I play what I do. There isnt a card in my deck that I dont like casting. On the flip side, running out creature after creature...just doesnt work for me.
Am I at a disadvantage? Almost certainly, but I'm enjoying it more than I would otherwise.
Spirits
This is only true from an essentialist perspective, i.e. everything must fit cleanly into exactly one category.
From a more organic/hollistic perspective, the model holds up just fine. There's nothing threatening in Twin being tempo-combo, Breach Moon being control-combo, Vizier being midrange-combo, and the Grixis lists of yore being midrange-control.
That those hybrids or blurry lines exist doesn't invalidate the decks that do fit into the categories pretty neatly, or the information we can get from examining how they interact. Like Jeskai (Control), Storm (Combo), Mardu Pyromancer (Midrange), Infect (Creature Combo), Ironworks (Combo), etc.
I envy you that. Playing Spreading Seas and Blood Moon feels like the absolute opposite of what I want to be doing when I play Control. Jeskai is a bit more like it (as is Grixis), but so tenuously meta-dependent that it's better for my peace of mind not to rely on it.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
Just feels bad.
Spirits
The most aggro interpretation of it is a Fish deck that sits right on the border of midrange, and you can interpret it as aggro-control.
If you've played the deck a lot, the go-wide thalia's lieutenant kills are the exception. It's more often you're disrupting and chipping and then mantis-bolting for the win.
Combo decks losing to aggro control or fish decks, news at 11
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Generally agreed, although I'll reiterate that I think the term "disruptive aggro" is both pretty well accepted and has less baggage than "aggro-control" (which people have picked fights over here before).
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
Spirits
What would be an aggro control deck? Humans, I guess it does have options to disrupt with Reflector Mage, Meddling Mage and Kitesail Freebooter primarily but its aggro cause it wins mainly through chipping away via creature damage.
The problem though, is that it's too disruptive for being aggro.
the deck hasnt violated any of the 'rules' (meta share, results, turn 4, etc). until it does i dont see how it qualifies as a problem.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yeah thats the thing, I dont believe in 'Aggro-Control' its nonsense. Disruptive Aggro, or calling it a 'Fish' deck as Merforlk set the initial template, thats fine, I can get behind that. Saying its 'Controlling' on the Aggro spectrum, as Hollow One is 'Combo' or whatever on the Aggro spectrum, I can get behind that.
Disruptive Aggro seems the best descriptor, but in the end its Aggro.
Spirits
I think you can define a deck based on how it gets to its win condition and what said win condition is.
Humans has the disruptive element and often when that slows down their clock slightly, it also hampers the opponent so much that they also cannot win early or are reliant on top decks. Does that sound familiar? Jund is one of the main decks that traded discard for targeted cards in an opponent's hand and asked the question, "can you top deck better than me?"
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Spirits
But in my opinion the main reason that the traditional roles of combo beats aggro etc etc being almost totally reversed in modern is because of the adherence to a 'turn 4 rule'. Combo decks aren't allowed to roam free and so they get pushed/banned up against turn 4. As pointed out aggro decks with their god hands kill on turn 3 in this format, just flipping that one simple thing on it's head means control doesn't pack the counterspells it's got (what I wouldn't give for spell pierce and negate to be maindeckable) and then control has to pack removal for days to try and keep aggro check. But since that isn't its natural role does it kind of badly.
Legacy - LED Dredge, ANT & WDnT
Creatures are supposed to be a bit slower on a goldfish, but more resilient to hate. Most creatures are pushed nowadays if you compare them to creatures 10 years ago and beyond.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Absolutely. The Turn-4 Rule artificially constraining the speed of decks is a big part of it. Not the whole story though IMO.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon