Hey, Jank gets there, thats what (many? most?) love about Modern. UB Turns top 16. :]
That said, the numbers dont lie, and meta's can be self reinforcing. I'm INSANE levels of biased though, as I dislike nearly every deck on that list to either play with, or against.
I know how you feel, I dislike playing against a lot of those decks as well. I prefer metas where decks are highly interactive and have a lot of decisions. Affinity has never bothered me to play with or against, as it's exactly what I think an aggro deck should be. It has complex lines, lots of decision trees, and is explosive. Burn (despite the fact that I greatly appreciate certain aspects of the deck) is what I don't enjoy. It has few lines and a fairly narrow decision tree. Something like Bogles I find to be pure cancer, as it has no decision tree, and seeks to play with itself rather than even acknowledge there's an opponent on the other side of the table.
I think the real problem is that answers still aren't good enough. The whole threats>answers meme died off after Fatal Push even though Fatal Push never really even addressed anything. Decks like Hollow One, Bogles, and Eldrazi exist precisely because they're so removal resistant despite being on creature dependent strategies.
After reading the past couple of pages, I offer a friendly reminder that you can ignore users whose commentary you have concluded is without value for you.
Any chance they had a few plans ready to go for the announcement tomorrow depending on how recent tournaments played out? Highly doubt modern changes tomorrow (I guess today) but SFM is about 8 ban announcements passed due so it would be refreshing if they did do something tomorrow.
Hopefully it will be within a year, but my guess is exactly 1 year from the Jace/Elf unbans.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
I don't think a year. I think they will look at how we feel from the RTRTR spoilers this fall, and if it's underwhelming, they will get us excited with an unban at that time. HOD should really have gotten us Jace, hell, HOD should have gotten us SKULLCLAMP.
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Project Booster Fun makes it less fun to open a booster.
Hopefully it will be within a year, but my guess is exactly 1 year from the Jace/Elf unbans.
I don't think they wait that long especially since Jace had done little. And Elf has mostly helped killed Abzan. Its Jund or Mardu, they tore Abzan in half.
Wouldn't it be an interesting twist to get Deathrite Shaman unbanned from Modern, yet banned in Legacy, in the same announcement. I think I would cry...for both formats.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
they would be foolish to do anything before 6 months to a year has elapsed after two major unbannings.
if anything a ban is more likely if they dont like what they are seeing in the format. they want the focus to be on the new sets and standard right now, anything that detracts from that without very good reason just isnt rational.
also there is reprint equity or whatever you wanna call it. no reason to jump the gun.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
they would be foolish to do anything before 6 months to a year has elapsed after two major unbannings.
if anything a ban is more likely if they dont like what they are seeing in the format. they want the focus to be on the new sets and standard right now, anything that detracts from that without very good reason just isnt rational.
also there is reprint equity or whatever you wanna call it. no reason to jump the gun.
Yeah business says wait to free SFM until you need to boost the sales of a product. Master sets seem to need all the help they can get.
That said I don't expect a major change in the impact of JTMS and BBE unless something else comes out that change the game in the Fall.
well there is damping sphere showing up soon. the discussion earlier about play design's influence showing up in dominaria makes me wonder if sphere was their doing since it is so targeted. maybe more of its like will show up more regularly, which could shift the format to a spot where jace and bbe are more influential.
a lot of ifs and maybes but you never know, its difficult predicting what the meta will look like 6 months from now when 6 months ago humans was in its infancy, mardu was a low-key player at best, and hollow one was a joke deck if it was seeing play at all.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
well there is damping sphere showing up soon. the discussion earlier about play design's influence showing up in dominaria makes me wonder if sphere was their doing since it is so targeted. maybe more of its like will show up more regularly, which could shift the format to a spot where jace and bbe are more influential.
a lot of ifs and maybes but you never know, its difficult predicting what the meta will look like 6 months from now when 6 months ago humans was in its infancy, mardu was a low-key player at best, and hollow one was a joke deck if it was seeing play at all.
So Green Sun's Zenith in modern means you can GSZ for Dryad Arbor and effectively play two lands + a bird or noble turn one, and follow up with a turn 2 Collected Company, Mwonvuli Acid-Moss or other 4-drop...? That is absoultely ridiculous, and why on earth would they prefer that over Birthing Pod?
I think Red and Black are fine and need no help whatsoever. Black especially. I am open to other colors getting some help.
And no I dont think every major archetype and color needs an equal percentage but some more parity would be nice.
Hey. I wanted to share my 2 cents after seeing the discussion around this last GP. I wanna preface this discussion by saying that one tournament alone, even if it is a GP, is not enough data to reasonabl conclude something for a format as wide as modern. That said, let's assume that the conclusion that many are reaching here is true: linear, aggro/combo decks are having significantly greater success than non-linear control/midrange decks.
Here is what I have to say: this is exactly what you should expect to happen in Magic, especially in a format as diverse as modern. Here are my arguments to justify that:
1. Non-linear decks are, by their very nature, harder to play overall. Of course that, for you to be a good magic player, you should know the ins and outs of every matchup. That said, if your strategy is 'play a bogle and go to town', you can win games even if you don't know exactly what your opponent is doing. However, if you're on jeskai control, full of reactive spells in your hand, you necessarily need to know well each deck and how to assess your opponent's threats and what is important to deal with in the matchup.
2. Non-linear decks rarely, if ever, have a nut draw. What is your god-hand with jeskai control? Bunch of lightning bolts, a counterspell and a jace? (With an adequate number of lands?). That is not a nut draw, that is just a decent hand. Look at the nut draw of eldrazi decks - something like t1 chalice, t2 TKS and t3 Smasher. Now that is a nut draw. Decks without these types of draws inevitably lose percentage points when compared to their linear counterparts. Sometimes the linear deck just draws the crazy, insane hand that gives them a game almost for free.
3. Non-linear decks need a good balance of lands and spells, and are more prone to mana screw. How many lands does Dredge need to operate with? 3? What about Bogles and Hollow One? 2 and 3? Burn is at its happiest if it never draws past 3 lands. Elves too. Of couse there are some exceptions. Ad Nauseam and KCI are linear, but need mana, while Death's Shadow is a type of control/midrange archetype that operates on very low amounts of mana. That said, as a general rule, Jund, Jeskai, Abzan and the like all need to consistently hit this good balance of lands and spells to play their game, while most linear decks do not need that.
4. Non-linear decks have fewer good matchups than linear decks. What are the good matchups for, say, mardu pyromancer? The deck, even though plays with its graveyard, is fundamentally trying a 'fair' game-play (let's ignore blood moon for a moment). It needs to deal its points of damage fair and square, and usually does so populating the board with tokens. I remember, playing shadow, that pyromancer didn't seem good to face because they could make chump blockers all day. That said, I bet you that bogles has many many many better good matchups. So do affinity and infect, at least game 1. What is a good matchup for a jund and jeskai deck? Probably something like humans or elves, where they can kill all the opponent's creatures and break their game plan. Do you think the humans' and elves' opponents have no chance? Do you think this is as lopsided as, say, jeskai vs bogles game 1? Probably not.
5. Non-linear decks rely more heavily on sideboard cards to beat decks doing unfair things, which necessarily reduces their chances of winning a match, since they're almost always unfavored game 1. Do you think Grishoalbrand cares about what Bogles is doing? The deck's goal is to put a griselbrand into play turn 2 and follow that up with a Borborygmos Enraged. By turn 2 the Bogles opponent, if he was on the play, has a bogle with a couple of auras in it. The same argument actually applies to bogles, but also to dredge, affinity, elves... they are trying to do something fundamentally unfair by the rules of magic - putting a big scary fatty into play, adding 12 power to the board by turn 2, generating insane amounts of mana by turn 3. They don't need sideboard cards to beat decks doing unfair things if they can do their unfair thing first. Midrange and control decks don't have this luxury. If they can't interact properly with what the opponent is doing (lack graveyard, artifact or enchantment hate, for example), they are toasted. There is no 'I win' button for them. They have to concede on game 1 and trust that their sideboard cards will carry them home.
So, this is my contribution to thread, and something I hope people think about. The conclusion is: as long as a format in Magic is diverse, it will always favor unfair/linear strategies, for all the reasons stated above. The exceptions to this rule that I can think of are miracles and delver decks in legacy. Miracles was playing such a powerful interaction (top/counterbalance) that it could neuter unfair strategies as early as turn 3, forever. Delver decks are the quintessencial tempo decks, something we don't often see in modern, simply because modern does not have the combinations of tools needed to build such decks in their available card pool (a combination of good free spells and disruptive spells, such as fow, daze, wasteland and stifle).
What do you guys think of this? Makes sense or I'm just making things up?
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I think you make good points. Control having to know what everyone else deck does to be most effective is a really good point. I think the other negative for control (besides arguing about how weak White and Blue are) is a broad format does control no favors. You cannot counter everything especially when some much of your deck has to be devoted to not getting runover by Bogles, Humans, Hollow One and other Aggro Decks in the first several turns.
The main difference is that you don't put mana dorks in your deck if you dont need to. GSZ is good late into the game, BoP isnt. You run 4 GSZ and 1 Dryad Arbor, not 1 GSZ and 4 Birds.
I know how you feel, I dislike playing against a lot of those decks as well. I prefer metas where decks are highly interactive and have a lot of decisions. Affinity has never bothered me to play with or against, as it's exactly what I think an aggro deck should be. It has complex lines, lots of decision trees, and is explosive. Burn (despite the fact that I greatly appreciate certain aspects of the deck) is what I don't enjoy. It has few lines and a fairly narrow decision tree. Something like Bogles I find to be pure cancer, as it has no decision tree, and seeks to play with itself rather than even acknowledge there's an opponent on the other side of the table.
I think the real problem is that answers still aren't good enough. The whole threats>answers meme died off after Fatal Push even though Fatal Push never really even addressed anything. Decks like Hollow One, Bogles, and Eldrazi exist precisely because they're so removal resistant despite being on creature dependent strategies.
Spirits
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Hopefully it will be within a year, but my guess is exactly 1 year from the Jace/Elf unbans.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Bull!
I want SFM and Twin tomorrow, or I'm crying to Aaron!
Spirits
I'm expecting nothing, but it will be a lovely surprise to get ANYTHING.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Link to Discord server where anybody from MTGS can keep up with thread topics while everything is being sorted out with the new site.
I don't think they wait that long especially since Jace had done little. And Elf has mostly helped killed Abzan. Its Jund or Mardu, they tore Abzan in half.
Wouldn't it be an interesting twist to get Deathrite Shaman unbanned from Modern, yet banned in Legacy, in the same announcement. I think I would cry...for both formats.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)if anything a ban is more likely if they dont like what they are seeing in the format. they want the focus to be on the new sets and standard right now, anything that detracts from that without very good reason just isnt rational.
also there is reprint equity or whatever you wanna call it. no reason to jump the gun.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yeah business says wait to free SFM until you need to boost the sales of a product. Master sets seem to need all the help they can get.
That said I don't expect a major change in the impact of JTMS and BBE unless something else comes out that change the game in the Fall.
a lot of ifs and maybes but you never know, its difficult predicting what the meta will look like 6 months from now when 6 months ago humans was in its infancy, mardu was a low-key player at best, and hollow one was a joke deck if it was seeing play at all.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)True The Future Always In Motion It Is.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)And no I dont think every major archetype and color needs an equal percentage but some more parity would be nice.
Ok, wasn't aware of that..
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
Here is what I have to say: this is exactly what you should expect to happen in Magic, especially in a format as diverse as modern. Here are my arguments to justify that:
1. Non-linear decks are, by their very nature, harder to play overall. Of course that, for you to be a good magic player, you should know the ins and outs of every matchup. That said, if your strategy is 'play a bogle and go to town', you can win games even if you don't know exactly what your opponent is doing. However, if you're on jeskai control, full of reactive spells in your hand, you necessarily need to know well each deck and how to assess your opponent's threats and what is important to deal with in the matchup.
2. Non-linear decks rarely, if ever, have a nut draw. What is your god-hand with jeskai control? Bunch of lightning bolts, a counterspell and a jace? (With an adequate number of lands?). That is not a nut draw, that is just a decent hand. Look at the nut draw of eldrazi decks - something like t1 chalice, t2 TKS and t3 Smasher. Now that is a nut draw. Decks without these types of draws inevitably lose percentage points when compared to their linear counterparts. Sometimes the linear deck just draws the crazy, insane hand that gives them a game almost for free.
3. Non-linear decks need a good balance of lands and spells, and are more prone to mana screw. How many lands does Dredge need to operate with? 3? What about Bogles and Hollow One? 2 and 3? Burn is at its happiest if it never draws past 3 lands. Elves too. Of couse there are some exceptions. Ad Nauseam and KCI are linear, but need mana, while Death's Shadow is a type of control/midrange archetype that operates on very low amounts of mana. That said, as a general rule, Jund, Jeskai, Abzan and the like all need to consistently hit this good balance of lands and spells to play their game, while most linear decks do not need that.
4. Non-linear decks have fewer good matchups than linear decks. What are the good matchups for, say, mardu pyromancer? The deck, even though plays with its graveyard, is fundamentally trying a 'fair' game-play (let's ignore blood moon for a moment). It needs to deal its points of damage fair and square, and usually does so populating the board with tokens. I remember, playing shadow, that pyromancer didn't seem good to face because they could make chump blockers all day. That said, I bet you that bogles has many many many better good matchups. So do affinity and infect, at least game 1. What is a good matchup for a jund and jeskai deck? Probably something like humans or elves, where they can kill all the opponent's creatures and break their game plan. Do you think the humans' and elves' opponents have no chance? Do you think this is as lopsided as, say, jeskai vs bogles game 1? Probably not.
5. Non-linear decks rely more heavily on sideboard cards to beat decks doing unfair things, which necessarily reduces their chances of winning a match, since they're almost always unfavored game 1. Do you think Grishoalbrand cares about what Bogles is doing? The deck's goal is to put a griselbrand into play turn 2 and follow that up with a Borborygmos Enraged. By turn 2 the Bogles opponent, if he was on the play, has a bogle with a couple of auras in it. The same argument actually applies to bogles, but also to dredge, affinity, elves... they are trying to do something fundamentally unfair by the rules of magic - putting a big scary fatty into play, adding 12 power to the board by turn 2, generating insane amounts of mana by turn 3. They don't need sideboard cards to beat decks doing unfair things if they can do their unfair thing first. Midrange and control decks don't have this luxury. If they can't interact properly with what the opponent is doing (lack graveyard, artifact or enchantment hate, for example), they are toasted. There is no 'I win' button for them. They have to concede on game 1 and trust that their sideboard cards will carry them home.
So, this is my contribution to thread, and something I hope people think about. The conclusion is: as long as a format in Magic is diverse, it will always favor unfair/linear strategies, for all the reasons stated above. The exceptions to this rule that I can think of are miracles and delver decks in legacy. Miracles was playing such a powerful interaction (top/counterbalance) that it could neuter unfair strategies as early as turn 3, forever. Delver decks are the quintessencial tempo decks, something we don't often see in modern, simply because modern does not have the combinations of tools needed to build such decks in their available card pool (a combination of good free spells and disruptive spells, such as fow, daze, wasteland and stifle).
What do you guys think of this? Makes sense or I'm just making things up?
Read my other stories as well (some ongoing):
Reaper King (a horror story), Kaalia of the Vast (an origin story), Sequels for Innistrad (Alternative sequels for Inn), Grey Areas (Odric's fanfic), Royal Succession (goblins),The Tracker's Message (eldrazi on Innistrad) and Ugin and his Eye (the end of OGW).
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]