P.Sullivan made a great point however. Can we get cards worth casting that are MORE than 3 or even 4 mana, or is that simply too much to ask in Modern?
Not as long as the format is overwhelmingly defined by what takes place in the first four turns.
That, and the fact that nearly every deck playing higher cost cards are cheating them into play ahead of curve one way or another. So we'll see plenty of expensive cards "playable", so long as there's a way to get them on the battlefield on or before turn 4 (or maybe turn 5).
P.Sullivan made a great point however. Can we get cards worth casting that are MORE than 3 or even 4 mana, or is that simply too much to ask in Modern?
Not as long as the format is overwhelmingly defined by what takes place in the first four turns.
That, and the fact that nearly every deck playing higher cost cards are cheating them into play ahead of curve one way or another. So we'll see plenty of expensive cards "playable", so long as there's a way to get them on the battlefield on or before turn 4 (or maybe turn 5).
So what would it take to slow the format down? Is that even something that'd be desirable for the majority of players?
To all the complaints about white in modern, I have a question:
What is a white deck?
Because whenever decks with white come up, the inevitable response is "it just splashes white." So I would like to know just how those of you who are still expecting equal representation among colors of magic to define a deck that would be considered white. Me? I think the idea of equal representation to be silly, because the game doesn't force you to just play a single color.
Im not sure which I would prefer, ban cavern of souls or make counterspell modern legal. Control is still a joke. Try casting jtms in this format using an actual blue deck with cryptics and knots. The creature decks smoke you with a zero opportunity cost land (cavern) and the combo decks chortle with glee as you pay four mana for nothing and proceed to lose the game as you flounder around with your one cryptic command or logic knot that you hoped would get there.
Cavern should have cost life to use like boseiju and/or come in tapped like boseiju. Playing it should have had a cost that you would weigh vs the benefits. People play unclaimed territory in modern - that tells you all you need to know about having uncounterable slapped on for free on this land.
And no, tapping out t3 to field of ruin it doesnt help. They get gross tempo and can ust draw another one as they invariably play four.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
To all the complaints about white in modern, I have a question:
What is a white deck?
Because whenever decks with white come up, the inevitable response is "it just splashes white." So I would like to know just how those of you who are still expecting equal representation among colors of magic to define a deck that would be considered white. Me? I think the idea of equal representation to be silly, because the game doesn't force you to just play a single color.
I suppose you count up the cards that use a certain color of mana or take a look at the mana base or some combination. There is no clear definition.
I don't think equal representation is possible considering each color cannot violate the constraints of the color pie and WOTC is going to be far less likely to allow things to slip through. But I do think white is lagging and that black is king and something should be done to lessen such a massive imbalance and loosening some bans seems a good place to start. I think every color should be viable as more then a splash.
I will say though that I don't consider Humans, White at all. Humans are only White insofar as WOTC in their infinite Wisdom decided to make Humans the iconic race of White. However, what makes humans effective doesn't really have anything to do with white (just look at their manabase carried by Cavern of Souls). Humans are broken cause they are the default race that gets a wide variety of creatures with useful effects in perpetuity. Ergo if Humans were the iconic race of Blue, Black, Red or Green. It be the same thing.
It occurs to me how bad that sounds without context.
Im not sure which I would prefer, ban cavern of souls or make counterspell modern legal. Control is still a joke. Try casting jtms in this format using an actual blue deck with cryptics and knots. The creature decks smoke you with a zero opportunity cost land (cavern) and the combo decks chortle with glee as you pay four mana for nothing and proceed to lose the game as you flounder around with your one cryptic command or logic knot that you hoped would get there.
Cavern should have cost life to use like boseiju and/or come in tapped like boseiju. Playing it should have had a cost that you would weigh vs the benefits. People play unclaimed territory in modern - that tells you all you need to know about having uncounterable slapped on for free on this land.
And no, tapping out t3 to field of ruin it doesnt help. They get gross tempo and can ust draw another one as they invariably play four.
How on earth do we continue to have these "ban cavern or give me more powerful spells" arguments less than 24 hours out from a major event where 3 out of the top 8 decks were cryptic command decks? The argument that blue or control is underpowered flies completely in the face of tournament finishes and suggestions for more tools is actually absurd.
Modern doesn't really need anything at this point, and it absolutely doesn't need more tools given to decks that are already performing well.
Blue is in a perfect spot. Thing is that blue mages are always unsatisfied, because they feel that U is a colour that leads to better played out games, more skill based decisions, thus Modern should become Legacy lite.
This won't ever happen in Modern. Blue will get no more help and it doesn't need any help, to be honest. We just got Jace.
Jace hardly even saw play this weekend lol.
I'm fine with where Blue is, mostly because they have neutered multiple things lately, but it's debatable that Jace even improved things.
one thing that this last weekends results indicated is that jund may not be as good as people gave it credit. i mentioned before that i thought junds numbers were slightly inflated because more people were playing it in general after the unban.
the fact that it hasnt posted results on the level of humans goes to show that it isn't the best deck in the format like people were predicting.
the mtgo modern challenge corroborates this, but then again it also looks pretty inbred too. so im not sure there is much to be gained from those results.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
I honestly think it's a fool's errand to try playing a reactive deck in modern, even a midrange deck. If you look at a deck and it plays more disruptive elements than threats it's probably wrong in this format. The closer you get to that 50/50 threat-answers ratio the more wrong the deck looks. In most games of modern you want to draw exactly enough interaction to keep your opponent from winning before you do and that's a really fine line.
Yes, the decks can do well, but they rarely win because they're inconsistent. Their threats are sometimes easily answered by the metagame and they can't close out games, and sometimes they draw the wrong half of the disruption pack, etc.
The more I think on it the more I'm convinced this might be a feature of Modern and not a bug. It's really interesting how engaging and skill testing a game like RG Eldrazi vs. Affinity can be, even though no one is drawing 20 cards and wrathing the board. Modern really rewards exceptional combat math and playing to your outs, and maybe that's just different than a format where you can always draw your answers and it's more about grinding out card advantage.
So in the end there I'm not sure it's critical that we have control decks as long as we have varying degrees of disruption and representation from all the colors and multiple play styles.
Maybe UWR Tempo and Humans are our "Control" decks, and burn and hollow one are our aggro decks, and that might just be fine.
I honestly think it's a fool's errand to try playing a reactive deck in modern, even a midrange deck. If you look at a deck and it plays more disruptive elements than threats it's probably wrong in this format. The closer you get to that 50/50 threat-answers ratio the more wrong the deck looks. In most games of modern you want to draw exactly enough interaction to keep your opponent from winning before you do and that's a really fine line.
Yes, the decks can do well, but they rarely win because they're inconsistent. Their threats are sometimes easily answered by the metagame and they can't close out games, and sometimes they draw the wrong half of the disruption pack, etc.
The more I think on it the more I'm convinced this might be a feature of Modern and not a bug. It's really interesting how engaging and skill testing a game like RG Eldrazi vs. Affinity can be, even though no one is drawing 20 cards and wrathing the board. Modern really rewards exceptional combat math and playing to your outs, and maybe that's just different than a format where you can always draw your answers and it's more about grinding out card advantage.
So in the end there I'm not sure it's critical that we have control decks as long as we have varying degrees of disruption and representation from all the colors and multiple play styles.
Maybe UWR Tempo and Humans are our "Control" decks, and burn and hollow one are our aggro decks, and that might just be fine.
Thing is, we do have control decks. I'd argue that Jeskai and Blue Moon are top tier, as well as Lantern, which is still a control style deck. Jeskai is as traditional as ever, and I dont really get this notion that the deck isnt good. It's put up results pre and post unbannings
I honestly think it's a fool's errand to try playing a reactive deck in modern, even a midrange deck. If you look at a deck and it plays more disruptive elements than threats it's probably wrong in this format. The closer you get to that 50/50 threat-answers ratio the more wrong the deck looks. In most games of modern you want to draw exactly enough interaction to keep your opponent from winning before you do and that's a really fine line.
....
Modern really rewards exceptional combat math and playing to your outs, and maybe that's just different than a format where you can always draw your answers and it's more about grinding out card advantage.
So in the end there I'm not sure it's critical that we have control decks as long as we have varying degrees of disruption and representation from all the colors and multiple play styles.
Maybe UWR Tempo and Humans are our "Control" decks, and burn and hollow one are our aggro decks, and that might just be fine.
I'm not saying you are wrong, but I HOPE you are wrong. If that makes sense.
I LOATHE combat math. I despise 'complex board states' defined by creatures, and I think it is the absolute worst type of design to have disruptive effects stapled to pushed bodies.
I do however think you are probably right, but it wasnt always like this, and is a huge source of dissatisfaction to those of us who preferred an older, pre-Eldrazi meta, and who had great hopes that Jace, and BBE would have a lasting impact, outside of a bubble of a bit more Jund and UWx.
If we have replaced ETron, GDS, and Storm, for Hollow One, Humans, and RG Eldrazi...well to me we have gained absolutely nothing.
I have hopes that the meta does not stall out at THAT.
Thing is, we do have control decks. I'd argue that Jeskai and Blue Moon are top tier, as well as Lantern, which is still a control style deck. Jeskai is as traditional as ever, and I dont really get this notion that the deck isnt good. It's put up results pre and post unbannings
What I would argue is that people who think Blue Moon and Jeskai control are very good are fooling themselves. Lantern I'm less sure about; I think it behaves closer to a combo deck than to a control deck, but that's clearly arguable about the definition of prison, etc.
If you look at the deck changes in the UWx and URx control shells from tournament to tournament you'll see they are never stable shells. They do well periodically but only as the people piloting them happen to guess the meta well on a weekend, but they're always chasing the right threat package and the right disruption package.
My opinion could be incorrect but I would classify those decks as "decent but not top tier" based on how inconsistent their performance is. My recollection is that their conversion rate is usually pretty poor and while we have no great match win data I would bet money their match win percentage is lower than other good decks (humans, etc.).
Basically it looks like there are a handful of decks with consistent high win rates and I don't think any control or midrange decks exist there except possibly Lantern (which is difficult to talk about due to its meta share as well as classification).
Here's a reference point btw, one of the things I think I had internalized but didn't remember specifically until I looked:
yeah i dont agree with you pokken. you have shown a penchant for having opinions that may have a kernel of truth, but are otherwise far too extreme.
i put out there that i thought that jund may not be as good as people believed (ie the best deck). however its still one of the best decks in the format.
then you jump immediately to decks trying to interact not being competitive, which is just flat out not the case.
So in the end there I'm not sure it's critical that we have control decks as long as we have varying degrees of disruption and representation from all the colors and multiple play styles.
what? the point is you can succeed with any play style in modern, which includes classic control, if you want to. if you think that the number of colored mana symbols represented is more important than this, then im not sure what to tell you.
humans a control deck? UWR tempo? what are you even talking about lol
Since I'm having trouble accessing the "multi-quote" thingy here, I'll just post like this.
Yes, a lot of people are finding out that Jund is not as good as they originally believe it to be (many claimed that it was Modern's best deck). It doesn't do as well vs. Humans as people think. I feel it's clearly favored for Humans, although I do obviously see Jund draws that beat Humans too. Hollow One is a nightmare matchup and Tron/Titanshift still exist in some numbers. I feel it's in the top 5 right now.
@idSurge - It's funny you mention the color help in Modern. I played Standard against a player who hadn't played in a long time and he said that he was surprised to see that Green is "so strong in Modern." I'm not sure if he's correct or not, but it was interesting seeing another one's perspective.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Green is disgustingly strong in Modern. Its mind boggling to assume otherwise.
The only issue is, just like Jund, just like UWR, its almost always 'fair'. Fair isnt the answer, if you want to be the top deck. I dont mean 'good' I mean Hollow One/Humans top deck.
@Pokken: The UWR deck that got top 4 this weekend was nearly 1 for 1 the pre-Jace build. UWR Control, is very stable.
Since when is a deck that wins through combat damage delivered by synergistic creatures not a fair deck? Humans is refreshing to see because it's the best fair creature based aggro deck we've seen in a long long time
Mardu Pyromancer might be another good midrange/control spectrum deck that I was missing.
what points are you using this extremely limited data set to support? if you look at it, including his conclusion, it only points to one thing: humans and hollow one are good decks. 2 decks with good win percentages in a small event.
funny in the comments jon finkel says he thinks storm is garbage.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Mardu Pyromancer might be another good midrange/control spectrum deck that I was missing.
what points are you using this extremely limited data set to support? if you look at it, including his conclusion, it only points to one thing: humans and hollow one are good decks. 2 decks with good win percentages in a small event.
funny in the comments jon finkel says he thinks storm is garbage.
I've seen a lot of similar datasets floating around and what I think is there are really not that many decks that have a win rate that supports playing them if you're trying to win.
Every time I have ever seen blue based control decks in those types of datasets, they've got 50% or worse win rates, and Jund has had a really bad win rate for the last few years too.
If you were looking exclusively at that dataset, Mardu is the only control/midrange spectrum deck with good numbers.
Re: my earlier comment about Humans being the control deck
In every game of magic someone is playing control and someone is playing aggro, whether they know it or not. The whole "who's the beatdown" thing. Humans is one of the more disruptive decks in the format and it is currently playing that role historically occupied by Jund of keeping unfair decks in check.
My point is that Modern might not have a traditional control deck that is viable, but it has plenty of disruptive elements. And also that decks that run lots of disruptive elements (more than threats) may just not be viable at all over the long term.
you are equating role assessment with deck archetypes, have seen a lot of data sets that contradict tournament results including matchup win percentages, and consider anything outside a limited set of decks nonviable options if you want to do well.
alright. we will have to agree to disagree.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
Another somewhat unrelated point I wanted to throw out there that I've been thinking a lot about from a categorizing and ranking decks perspective:
1) The rate of change in an archetype seems like it correlates with how good the deck is.
2) The amount of variance betweeen sub-archetypes within a meta-archetype seems like it correlates with how good the deck is
If you look at all the blue decks in modern, they have some similar qualities when compared to Company and Taxes decks. They have in general medium conversion rates and win rates, and the decks change all the time as they try to generate edges by predicting or reacting to the meta.
There're 5 separate archetypes within the company meta-archetype at least (GW Value, GWB company, GWU company, GB elves, GW elves) and all of them except GW Elves change with startling frequency. This implies strongly that GW Elves is the best of the company sub-archetypes (coincidentally it also places the most consistently as far as I can tell).
There are at least 3 different archetypes within the Ux cryptic command archetypes, even if you don't count RUG Scapeshift in that group (which you could) (UWR control, UW control, UR control). All of these decks change constantly, swapping threat loadouts, removal loadouts, even manabases making change. Of those, UR has performed the best over the last year to my recollection and it also has the lowest rate of change (with Breach Titan vs. Kiki Jiki vs. Madcap being the main things I've seen). All of this is based on my memory of course which is not perfect
You can see very similar lines with W taxes, Wg taxes, Wb taxes, WbE taxes, etc, etc.
All of that is to say that I think there are a bunch of decks people are confused about whether they are good because they do well from time to time but inconsistently, and a lot of that is driven by the "shell power," or the glue effect, if you will.
Playing 6+ mana dorks, 30 creatures, and 4 collected companies will win you a lot of games regardless of what cards are in your deck. Playing 3-4 snapcasters, 3-4 cryptics and a bunch of 1 mana removal spells will win you a lot of games regardless of what else is in your deck. And the same goes for 4 vials, 4 thalias, 4 ghost quarters.
What you can distill by looking at how many different variants there are on these 3 powerful shells is that:
1) There is probably a best build
2) No one knows what it is yet
And by extension you can know that most of the builds that are out there are probably medium (at best)
Its not even a tempo deck, let alone control. Just because it may adopt the Control role...yeah no. Its Aggro Tribal. just more explosive and disruptive, than Merfolk.
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UW Spirits
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Not as long as the format is overwhelmingly defined by what takes place in the first four turns.
That, and the fact that nearly every deck playing higher cost cards are cheating them into play ahead of curve one way or another. So we'll see plenty of expensive cards "playable", so long as there's a way to get them on the battlefield on or before turn 4 (or maybe turn 5).
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
So what would it take to slow the format down? Is that even something that'd be desirable for the majority of players?
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)What is a white deck?
Because whenever decks with white come up, the inevitable response is "it just splashes white." So I would like to know just how those of you who are still expecting equal representation among colors of magic to define a deck that would be considered white. Me? I think the idea of equal representation to be silly, because the game doesn't force you to just play a single color.
Cavern should have cost life to use like boseiju and/or come in tapped like boseiju. Playing it should have had a cost that you would weigh vs the benefits. People play unclaimed territory in modern - that tells you all you need to know about having uncounterable slapped on for free on this land.
And no, tapping out t3 to field of ruin it doesnt help. They get gross tempo and can ust draw another one as they invariably play four.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
I suppose you count up the cards that use a certain color of mana or take a look at the mana base or some combination. There is no clear definition.
I don't think equal representation is possible considering each color cannot violate the constraints of the color pie and WOTC is going to be far less likely to allow things to slip through. But I do think white is lagging and that black is king and something should be done to lessen such a massive imbalance and loosening some bans seems a good place to start. I think every color should be viable as more then a splash.
I will say though that I don't consider Humans, White at all. Humans are only White insofar as WOTC in their infinite Wisdom decided to make Humans the iconic race of White. However, what makes humans effective doesn't really have anything to do with white (just look at their manabase carried by Cavern of Souls). Humans are broken cause they are the default race that gets a wide variety of creatures with useful effects in perpetuity. Ergo if Humans were the iconic race of Blue, Black, Red or Green. It be the same thing.
It occurs to me how bad that sounds without context.
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I'm totally fine in saying 'yes white needs help'. I'm a whole lot less fine with 'Green needs help'.
Spirits
How on earth do we continue to have these "ban cavern or give me more powerful spells" arguments less than 24 hours out from a major event where 3 out of the top 8 decks were cryptic command decks? The argument that blue or control is underpowered flies completely in the face of tournament finishes and suggestions for more tools is actually absurd.
Modern doesn't really need anything at this point, and it absolutely doesn't need more tools given to decks that are already performing well.
Jace hardly even saw play this weekend lol.
I'm fine with where Blue is, mostly because they have neutered multiple things lately, but it's debatable that Jace even improved things.
Spirits
the fact that it hasnt posted results on the level of humans goes to show that it isn't the best deck in the format like people were predicting.
the mtgo modern challenge corroborates this, but then again it also looks pretty inbred too. so im not sure there is much to be gained from those results.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yes, the decks can do well, but they rarely win because they're inconsistent. Their threats are sometimes easily answered by the metagame and they can't close out games, and sometimes they draw the wrong half of the disruption pack, etc.
The more I think on it the more I'm convinced this might be a feature of Modern and not a bug. It's really interesting how engaging and skill testing a game like RG Eldrazi vs. Affinity can be, even though no one is drawing 20 cards and wrathing the board. Modern really rewards exceptional combat math and playing to your outs, and maybe that's just different than a format where you can always draw your answers and it's more about grinding out card advantage.
So in the end there I'm not sure it's critical that we have control decks as long as we have varying degrees of disruption and representation from all the colors and multiple play styles.
Maybe UWR Tempo and Humans are our "Control" decks, and burn and hollow one are our aggro decks, and that might just be fine.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Thing is, we do have control decks. I'd argue that Jeskai and Blue Moon are top tier, as well as Lantern, which is still a control style deck. Jeskai is as traditional as ever, and I dont really get this notion that the deck isnt good. It's put up results pre and post unbannings
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
I'm not saying you are wrong, but I HOPE you are wrong. If that makes sense.
I LOATHE combat math. I despise 'complex board states' defined by creatures, and I think it is the absolute worst type of design to have disruptive effects stapled to pushed bodies.
I do however think you are probably right, but it wasnt always like this, and is a huge source of dissatisfaction to those of us who preferred an older, pre-Eldrazi meta, and who had great hopes that Jace, and BBE would have a lasting impact, outside of a bubble of a bit more Jund and UWx.
If we have replaced ETron, GDS, and Storm, for Hollow One, Humans, and RG Eldrazi...well to me we have gained absolutely nothing.
I have hopes that the meta does not stall out at THAT.
Come save me Damping Sphere.
Spirits
What I would argue is that people who think Blue Moon and Jeskai control are very good are fooling themselves. Lantern I'm less sure about; I think it behaves closer to a combo deck than to a control deck, but that's clearly arguable about the definition of prison, etc.
If you look at the deck changes in the UWx and URx control shells from tournament to tournament you'll see they are never stable shells. They do well periodically but only as the people piloting them happen to guess the meta well on a weekend, but they're always chasing the right threat package and the right disruption package.
My opinion could be incorrect but I would classify those decks as "decent but not top tier" based on how inconsistent their performance is. My recollection is that their conversion rate is usually pretty poor and while we have no great match win data I would bet money their match win percentage is lower than other good decks (humans, etc.).
Basically it looks like there are a handful of decks with consistent high win rates and I don't think any control or midrange decks exist there except possibly Lantern (which is difficult to talk about due to its meta share as well as classification).
Here's a reference point btw, one of the things I think I had internalized but didn't remember specifically until I looked:
https://twitter.com/Jaberwocki/status/980662574604681216/photo/1
Mardu Pyromancer might be another good midrange/control spectrum deck that I was missing.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
i put out there that i thought that jund may not be as good as people believed (ie the best deck). however its still one of the best decks in the format.
then you jump immediately to decks trying to interact not being competitive, which is just flat out not the case.
what? the point is you can succeed with any play style in modern, which includes classic control, if you want to. if you think that the number of colored mana symbols represented is more important than this, then im not sure what to tell you.
humans a control deck? UWR tempo? what are you even talking about lol
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Yes, a lot of people are finding out that Jund is not as good as they originally believe it to be (many claimed that it was Modern's best deck). It doesn't do as well vs. Humans as people think. I feel it's clearly favored for Humans, although I do obviously see Jund draws that beat Humans too. Hollow One is a nightmare matchup and Tron/Titanshift still exist in some numbers. I feel it's in the top 5 right now.
@idSurge - It's funny you mention the color help in Modern. I played Standard against a player who hadn't played in a long time and he said that he was surprised to see that Green is "so strong in Modern." I'm not sure if he's correct or not, but it was interesting seeing another one's perspective.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)The only issue is, just like Jund, just like UWR, its almost always 'fair'. Fair isnt the answer, if you want to be the top deck. I dont mean 'good' I mean Hollow One/Humans top deck.
@Pokken: The UWR deck that got top 4 this weekend was nearly 1 for 1 the pre-Jace build. UWR Control, is very stable.
Spirits
what points are you using this extremely limited data set to support? if you look at it, including his conclusion, it only points to one thing: humans and hollow one are good decks. 2 decks with good win percentages in a small event.
funny in the comments jon finkel says he thinks storm is garbage.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)I've seen a lot of similar datasets floating around and what I think is there are really not that many decks that have a win rate that supports playing them if you're trying to win.
Every time I have ever seen blue based control decks in those types of datasets, they've got 50% or worse win rates, and Jund has had a really bad win rate for the last few years too.
If you were looking exclusively at that dataset, Mardu is the only control/midrange spectrum deck with good numbers.
Re: my earlier comment about Humans being the control deck
In every game of magic someone is playing control and someone is playing aggro, whether they know it or not. The whole "who's the beatdown" thing. Humans is one of the more disruptive decks in the format and it is currently playing that role historically occupied by Jund of keeping unfair decks in check.
My point is that Modern might not have a traditional control deck that is viable, but it has plenty of disruptive elements. And also that decks that run lots of disruptive elements (more than threats) may just not be viable at all over the long term.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
alright. we will have to agree to disagree.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)1) The rate of change in an archetype seems like it correlates with how good the deck is.
2) The amount of variance betweeen sub-archetypes within a meta-archetype seems like it correlates with how good the deck is
If you look at all the blue decks in modern, they have some similar qualities when compared to Company and Taxes decks. They have in general medium conversion rates and win rates, and the decks change all the time as they try to generate edges by predicting or reacting to the meta.
There're 5 separate archetypes within the company meta-archetype at least (GW Value, GWB company, GWU company, GB elves, GW elves) and all of them except GW Elves change with startling frequency. This implies strongly that GW Elves is the best of the company sub-archetypes (coincidentally it also places the most consistently as far as I can tell).
There are at least 3 different archetypes within the Ux cryptic command archetypes, even if you don't count RUG Scapeshift in that group (which you could) (UWR control, UW control, UR control). All of these decks change constantly, swapping threat loadouts, removal loadouts, even manabases making change. Of those, UR has performed the best over the last year to my recollection and it also has the lowest rate of change (with Breach Titan vs. Kiki Jiki vs. Madcap being the main things I've seen). All of this is based on my memory of course which is not perfect
You can see very similar lines with W taxes, Wg taxes, Wb taxes, WbE taxes, etc, etc.
All of that is to say that I think there are a bunch of decks people are confused about whether they are good because they do well from time to time but inconsistently, and a lot of that is driven by the "shell power," or the glue effect, if you will.
Playing 6+ mana dorks, 30 creatures, and 4 collected companies will win you a lot of games regardless of what cards are in your deck. Playing 3-4 snapcasters, 3-4 cryptics and a bunch of 1 mana removal spells will win you a lot of games regardless of what else is in your deck. And the same goes for 4 vials, 4 thalias, 4 ghost quarters.
What you can distill by looking at how many different variants there are on these 3 powerful shells is that:
1) There is probably a best build
2) No one knows what it is yet
And by extension you can know that most of the builds that are out there are probably medium (at best)
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Spirits