Had a blast last night at our LGS Modern tournament, we had 64 people show up with a slew of different decks. I wanted to share some thoughts about some interactions between decks that I played against using UB Faeries:
-Humans didn't do nearly as well against me as I thought it would, but TBH that had more to do with the pilots than the decks themselves. That being said, Bitterblossom does a lot of work against Humans.
-Managed to get one game from Affinity, which is one of my nightmare matchups. UB just doesn't have much game against artifacts.
-Saw way more Jund than I've seen in the past two months. That's a super fun matchup, definitely skill intensive and exciting. Abrupt Decay hurts.
-Got cursed out by a Tron player who thought it was supremely unfair that I basically time walked him for three turns with Mistbind Clique shenanigans.
-Hollow One had a strong showing, lost to Humans in the finals. Hot damn that deck hates recursion. Bitterblossom also did a lot of work in those matchups. Sword of War and Peace was also clutch.
-Biggest punt was against Fish, another nightmare matchup. Effed up my Mana one turn thanks to not playing my lands in the right order (looking at you River of Tears), couldn't cast Cryptic Command, and got blown out the next turn.
-Best play was against Affinity, used Bontu's Last Reckoning to clear the board sans BB and a previously championed Vendillion Clique. I snatch Ravager out of his hand and he scooped. \m/
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist. Also, it's interesting to see Mardu Pyromancer with a larger share than Jund here. Another interesting development is the near total absence of Tron, which is clearly being kept back by aggressive decks and slower decks with Field.
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist.
For the record, what currently banned cards were you thinking about when you typed this?
I saw P.Sully's summary yesterday of why he thought Stoneforge Mystic wasn't a good choice, at least currently, and it all felt very familiar. For those of you who didn't see it, he essentially said (and of course I'm paraphrasing here) that there's a 70% chance the card is okay, a 25% chance it's really good, and a 5% chance it breaks the format. He then questioned what it would do for diversity, especially being afraid that SFM could possibly reduce it, and finally mentioned that it shouldn't even be considered this year to allow the meta to more fully process the previous unbannings.
That last part is the one thing I agree with, but as far as SFM reducing diversity or it having a chance to be broken, we've heard this for pretty much every card that has been unbanned. The thing that always gets me about these generalized arguments out of fear is that they very rarely discuss the more relevant questions:
What is the ceiling on this card (both now, and in some possible future with other equipment being printed with realistic design philosophies)?
Does it slot into strategies that are already doing well?
What decks could it help out that are currently underrepresented?
Does it solve so much for the weak areas of any decks that it might push them over the top?
How hard is it to answer or play around relative to the rest of what the format is doing?
Is it strictly better than anything else that is already seeing regular play?
Does its existence in the format threaten entire archetypes or playstyles (like what DRS did to graveyard decks)?
Is it so good that every deck will play them, or splash a color for the sole purpose of playing them?
I would LOVE to see the commentators talk about these things instead of boil it down to the same old overly generic every time.
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist. Also, it's interesting to see Mardu Pyromancer with a larger share than Jund here. Another interesting development is the near total absence of Tron, which is clearly being kept back by aggressive decks and slower decks with Field.
Your 2nd sentence is what I have been thinking for quite some time now. As the field gets more wide open, it gets harder to defeat the field. I do think we should see some more unbans. SFM is the obvious one, but I believe like you there may be others.
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Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist.
For the record, what currently banned cards were you thinking about when you typed this?
I saw P.Sully's summary yesterday of why he thought Stoneforge Mystic wasn't a good choice, at least currently, and it all felt very familiar. For those of you who didn't see it, he essentially said (and of course I'm paraphrasing here) that there's a 70% chance the card is okay, a 25% chance it's really good, and a 5% chance it breaks the format. He then questioned what it would do for diversity, especially being afraid that SFM could possibly reduce it, and finally mentioned that it shouldn't even be considered this year to allow the meta to more fully process the previous unbannings.
That last part is the one thing I agree with, but as far as SFM reducing diversity or it having a chance to be broken, we've heard this for pretty much every card that has been unbanned. The thing that always gets me about these generalized arguments out of fear is that they very rarely discuss the more relevant questions:
What is the ceiling on this card (both now, and in some possible future with other equipment being printed with realistic design philosophies)?
Does it slot into strategies that are already doing well?
What decks could it help out that are currently underrepresented?
Does it solve so much for the weak areas of any decks that it might push them over the top?
How hard is it to answer or play around relative to the rest of what the format is doing?
Is it strictly better than anything else that is already seeing regular play?
Does its existence in the format threaten entire archetypes or playstyles (like what DRS did to graveyard decks)?
Is it so good that every deck will play them, or splash a color for the sole purpose of playing them?
I would LOVE to see the commentators talk about these things instead of boil it down to the same old overly generic every time.
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist. Also, it's interesting to see Mardu Pyromancer with a larger share than Jund here. Another interesting development is the near total absence of Tron, which is clearly being kept back by aggressive decks and slower decks with Field.
Your 2nd sentence is what I have been thinking for quite some time now. As the field gets more wide open, it gets harder to defeat the field. I do think we should see some more unbans. SFM is the obvious one, but I believe like you there may be others.
In no particular order, Preordain to potentially improve blue deck consistency, SFM to potentially give white a color identity and blunt aggressive decks, and GSZ to potentially improve grindy, value-based green decks. SFM and Preordain have been on my short list for a while. GSZ is one I typically don't consider but would probably be fine.
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist. Also, it's interesting to see Mardu Pyromancer with a larger share than Jund here. Another interesting development is the near total absence of Tron, which is clearly being kept back by aggressive decks and slower decks with Field.
I sure hope 'Jeskai Control' isnt quellers again. Please break that into its own set of decks. Otherwise, meta looks normal.
Will be interesting if Burn can get passed Day 2 and place this time.
Jeskai, Blue Moon, and Affinity are in top 8 apparently.
i saw that commentary from p.sullivan, and to me it centralized around one thing - stop trying to force change. let the format develop organically with metagame cycling and the slow inclusion of cards from standard sets.
continuously dropping obviously powerful cards on the formats lap just leads to more periods of chaos. some have expressed concerns with the format never being in a place where you can truly attack the meta with a deck choice or sideboard build. the format never truly settling makes it harder to determine if there are already existing methods to fight against top decks, and arguably pushes people toward strategies that ignore what the opponent is doing as much as possible.
when modern was removed from the pro-tour and wizards no longer felt the need to meddle, it proved to be one of the best things that could have happened to the format. i think there is some wisdom to be gained from that.
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But then they brought it back and it's bigger than ever, with the amount of excitement generated by the pro tour being a net positive in my book.
My opinion is we should be unbanning as much as possible especially cards that were banned for no real reason (SFM being the biggest example of that, it's never even been in the format!).
GSZ was only in it for a short time and was banned in the same time frame as Wild Nacatl was banned when Zoo was a problem deck (seriously, looking back at that it's pretty comical).
Anyway, I think the goal of letting people play as many powerful cards as possible overshadows possible disruptions. GSZ and Stoneforge are going to be EDH only cards for no good reason as legacy fades away. That's kind of sad to me.
continuously dropping obviously powerful cards on the formats lap just leads to more periods of chaos.
Please give some historical examples of unbans happening in a way that was detrimental to the health of Modern. (Spoilers: this has never happened.)
some have expressed concerns with the format never being in a place where you can truly attack the meta with a deck choice or sideboard build.
Yes, and the typical refutation is one I tend to agree with: that's Modern, and it isn't likely to (nor should it) change in the foreseeable future. This is a feature, not a bug.
the format never truly settling makes it harder to determine if there are already existing methods to fight against top decks, and arguably pushes people toward strategies that ignore what the opponent is doing as much as possible.
The non-interactive strategies seem to be in good balance with the interactive ones in Modern, though. Would you not agree that Modern is currently both healthy and diverse?
when modern was removed from the pro-tour and wizards no longer felt the need to meddle, it proved to be one of the best things that could have happened to the format. i think there is some wisdom to be gained from that.
The amazing amount of diversity and creativity since both before and after PTRIX has showcased Modern, not stymied it. Regarding the topic at hand of unbans, Wizards really seems to have been improving their consideration for player wishes against the mistakes of the past, which is why the impactful ban/unban announcement was after the Pro Tour this time.
There isn't a lot left on the banned list that is likely to ever be unbanned, but those few cards are definitely worth considering. With SFM in particular, Wizards can (and probably will) enjoy the demand such an unban would create by placing those cards in a Masters set around the time of the announcement, similar to how they did it with JtMS. So long as the sorts of questions I posted previously are answered well (and SFM checks pretty much all the good boxes there), both Wizards and the players win.
Sadly I think Pod is too easy to break. The new pod chain of Fink-Guardian-Resto-Kiki in 3 activations is just too good to ever see the light of day. I think they'd wind up having to ban too many cards for it to be fair.
Pod was not only banned for the raw amount of meta share it had before being banned, it's one of those cards that simply improves as the pool of creatures and creature-based combos increases over time. I don't see how the meta could possibly power-creep in a way that doesn't inherently power up Pod decks at the same time.
I don't see why we'd unban Punishing Fire when Jund just got a noticeable boost in power via Bloodbraid Elf. Not only that, I don't see what the card does for the meta other than give Jund and other decks more tools to deal with small creature-based decks. If there were a lot more of them in the meta right now I'd say unban it, but while there are certainly some strong small creature-based decks, they aren't in such prominent numbers that we need a card that can potentially push them out of the meta
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Decks
Modern: UWUW Control UBRGrixis Shadow URIzzet Phoenix
Punishing Fire is an extremely unhealthy card for Modern; the inevitability it can create is too good (it's pretty much the ideal mana sink late in the game), and it would invalidate most of the creature-based decks people are enjoying now.
Birthing Pod isn't quite as bad, but it's still just way to good of a consistency tool to ever be considered for an unban.
ive already expressed my view on unbannings. id welcome sfm and preordain with open arms. gsz seems more of a wildcard.
that said i acknowledge the merits of letting the format do its own thing for a while. which is what i believe was at the heart of what patrick sullivan was talking about on the tournament coverage. if people agree that the earliest an unban would be plausible is a year from now, how would you be expected to answer a very specific set of questions with no clue what the format will look like? we have trouble telling what the format looks like right now.
dominaria will have some impact, because every set does. then there is the return of the long absent core set in a few months.
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Modern: UWGSnow-Bant Control BURGrixis Death's Shadow GWBCoCo Elves WCDeath and Taxes (sold)
damn. jeskai player with the throwback list - 1 nahiri and zero jaces. blue moon guy has 1 copy, and the rug scapeshift player has zero.
its confirmed guys. 3 copies in the top 32. jace is garbage lol.
Was about to make the same comment, hilarious to see 3 blue decks in the top 8 and only 1 Jace. I do think it is a mistake to not play it in that Jeskai list though.
Yeah, and no green-based Tron in the top 32 at all either, wow.
My bet as far as unbans go is that we'll see SFM come off next year after the next Modern Pro Tour (right before they reprint it). No need to really consider it until then, though I'll be happy whenever it comes off.
For those of you in favor of a Preordain unban, do you not feel it would give Storm too much consistency?
Yeah, and no green-based Tron in the top 32 at all either, wow.
My bet as far as unbans go is that we'll see SFM come off next year after the next Modern Pro Tour (right before they reprint it). No need to really consider it until then, though I'll be happy whenever it comes off.
For those of you in favor of a Preordain unban, do you not feel it would give Storm too much consistency?
I believe Preordain was tested and found to not really add that much consistency to combo decks. Storm feels like it's mostly losing in situation where it got its important cards taken or countered rather than failing to find. I feel like their turn 3 kill through no disruption is probably 50% as is just by drawing the cards. The percentage improvement from Preordain over Sleight has to be like <5%. And opponents having no removal for your first dude is pretty unlikely.
But personally I kind of like where we're at from a cantrip perspective. Not sure I'm ready for 11 cantrip xerox decks.
Playing since 1994: Currently MAGS (HomeBrew),Standard & Pauper (Pioneer and Modern are degenerate trash formats)
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
And I'm on the fence about Rite of Flame and Seething Song as well, maybe one of the two but not both???
would any deck other than UR storm play those cards? id only want to see them unbanned if they spawned new/different decks. otherwise you are just asking yourself if storm needs more help. im not convinced wizards would bother even if damping sphere somehow pushes it out of the format.
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-Humans didn't do nearly as well against me as I thought it would, but TBH that had more to do with the pilots than the decks themselves. That being said, Bitterblossom does a lot of work against Humans.
-Managed to get one game from Affinity, which is one of my nightmare matchups. UB just doesn't have much game against artifacts.
-Saw way more Jund than I've seen in the past two months. That's a super fun matchup, definitely skill intensive and exciting. Abrupt Decay hurts.
-Got cursed out by a Tron player who thought it was supremely unfair that I basically time walked him for three turns with Mistbind Clique shenanigans.
-Hollow One had a strong showing, lost to Humans in the finals. Hot damn that deck hates recursion. Bitterblossom also did a lot of work in those matchups. Sword of War and Peace was also clutch.
-Biggest punt was against Fish, another nightmare matchup. Effed up my Mana one turn thanks to not playing my lands in the right order (looking at you River of Tears), couldn't cast Cryptic Command, and got blown out the next turn.
-Best play was against Affinity, used Bontu's Last Reckoning to clear the board sans BB and a previously championed Vendillion Clique. I snatch Ravager out of his hand and he scooped. \m/
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/4305_day_2_metagame_breakdown.html
It's pretty spectacular to see how wrong the JTMS doomsaying was. It makes you wonder how many other cards are being wildly misevaluated on the banlist. Also, it's interesting to see Mardu Pyromancer with a larger share than Jund here. Another interesting development is the near total absence of Tron, which is clearly being kept back by aggressive decks and slower decks with Field.
I saw P.Sully's summary yesterday of why he thought Stoneforge Mystic wasn't a good choice, at least currently, and it all felt very familiar. For those of you who didn't see it, he essentially said (and of course I'm paraphrasing here) that there's a 70% chance the card is okay, a 25% chance it's really good, and a 5% chance it breaks the format. He then questioned what it would do for diversity, especially being afraid that SFM could possibly reduce it, and finally mentioned that it shouldn't even be considered this year to allow the meta to more fully process the previous unbannings.
That last part is the one thing I agree with, but as far as SFM reducing diversity or it having a chance to be broken, we've heard this for pretty much every card that has been unbanned. The thing that always gets me about these generalized arguments out of fear is that they very rarely discuss the more relevant questions:
What is the ceiling on this card (both now, and in some possible future with other equipment being printed with realistic design philosophies)?
Does it slot into strategies that are already doing well?
What decks could it help out that are currently underrepresented?
Does it solve so much for the weak areas of any decks that it might push them over the top?
How hard is it to answer or play around relative to the rest of what the format is doing?
Is it strictly better than anything else that is already seeing regular play?
Does its existence in the format threaten entire archetypes or playstyles (like what DRS did to graveyard decks)?
Is it so good that every deck will play them, or splash a color for the sole purpose of playing them?
I would LOVE to see the commentators talk about these things instead of boil it down to the same old overly generic every time.
Your 2nd sentence is what I have been thinking for quite some time now. As the field gets more wide open, it gets harder to defeat the field. I do think we should see some more unbans. SFM is the obvious one, but I believe like you there may be others.
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
humans continues to be a dominant force. maybe ponza really is the best BBE deck.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)In no particular order, Preordain to potentially improve blue deck consistency, SFM to potentially give white a color identity and blunt aggressive decks, and GSZ to potentially improve grindy, value-based green decks. SFM and Preordain have been on my short list for a while. GSZ is one I typically don't consider but would probably be fine.
I sure hope 'Jeskai Control' isnt quellers again. Please break that into its own set of decks. Otherwise, meta looks normal.
Will be interesting if Burn can get passed Day 2 and place this time.
Jeskai, Blue Moon, and Affinity are in top 8 apparently.
Spirits
continuously dropping obviously powerful cards on the formats lap just leads to more periods of chaos. some have expressed concerns with the format never being in a place where you can truly attack the meta with a deck choice or sideboard build. the format never truly settling makes it harder to determine if there are already existing methods to fight against top decks, and arguably pushes people toward strategies that ignore what the opponent is doing as much as possible.
when modern was removed from the pro-tour and wizards no longer felt the need to meddle, it proved to be one of the best things that could have happened to the format. i think there is some wisdom to be gained from that.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)My opinion is we should be unbanning as much as possible especially cards that were banned for no real reason (SFM being the biggest example of that, it's never even been in the format!).
GSZ was only in it for a short time and was banned in the same time frame as Wild Nacatl was banned when Zoo was a problem deck (seriously, looking back at that it's pretty comical).
Anyway, I think the goal of letting people play as many powerful cards as possible overshadows possible disruptions. GSZ and Stoneforge are going to be EDH only cards for no good reason as legacy fades away. That's kind of sad to me.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
Yes, and the typical refutation is one I tend to agree with: that's Modern, and it isn't likely to (nor should it) change in the foreseeable future. This is a feature, not a bug.
The non-interactive strategies seem to be in good balance with the interactive ones in Modern, though. Would you not agree that Modern is currently both healthy and diverse?
The amazing amount of diversity and creativity since both before and after PTRIX has showcased Modern, not stymied it. Regarding the topic at hand of unbans, Wizards really seems to have been improving their consideration for player wishes against the mistakes of the past, which is why the impactful ban/unban announcement was after the Pro Tour this time.
There isn't a lot left on the banned list that is likely to ever be unbanned, but those few cards are definitely worth considering. With SFM in particular, Wizards can (and probably will) enjoy the demand such an unban would create by placing those cards in a Masters set around the time of the announcement, similar to how they did it with JtMS. So long as the sorts of questions I posted previously are answered well (and SFM checks pretty much all the good boxes there), both Wizards and the players win.
Spirits
RG Eldrazi vs Eldrazi Tron
Affinity vs Scapeshift
Jeskai Control (Big Jeskai) vs Humans
Burn vs Blue Moon (Kikimite!)
Spirits
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/deckshow.php?&t[C1]=28&start_date=04/06/2018&end_date=04/08/2018&start=1&finish=32&event_ID=47&city=Milwaukee&state=WI&start_num=0
Spirits
I don't see why we'd unban Punishing Fire when Jund just got a noticeable boost in power via Bloodbraid Elf. Not only that, I don't see what the card does for the meta other than give Jund and other decks more tools to deal with small creature-based decks. If there were a lot more of them in the meta right now I'd say unban it, but while there are certainly some strong small creature-based decks, they aren't in such prominent numbers that we need a card that can potentially push them out of the meta
Modern:
UWUW Control
UBRGrixis Shadow
URIzzet Phoenix
Birthing Pod isn't quite as bad, but it's still just way to good of a consistency tool to ever be considered for an unban.
ive already expressed my view on unbannings. id welcome sfm and preordain with open arms. gsz seems more of a wildcard.
that said i acknowledge the merits of letting the format do its own thing for a while. which is what i believe was at the heart of what patrick sullivan was talking about on the tournament coverage. if people agree that the earliest an unban would be plausible is a year from now, how would you be expected to answer a very specific set of questions with no clue what the format will look like? we have trouble telling what the format looks like right now.
dominaria will have some impact, because every set does. then there is the return of the long absent core set in a few months.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)damn. jeskai player with the throwback list - 1 nahiri and zero jaces. blue moon guy has 1 copy, and the rug scapeshift player has zero.
its confirmed guys. 3 copies in the top 32. jace is garbage lol.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
My bet as far as unbans go is that we'll see SFM come off next year after the next Modern Pro Tour (right before they reprint it). No need to really consider it until then, though I'll be happy whenever it comes off.
For those of you in favor of a Preordain unban, do you not feel it would give Storm too much consistency?
I believe Preordain was tested and found to not really add that much consistency to combo decks. Storm feels like it's mostly losing in situation where it got its important cards taken or countered rather than failing to find. I feel like their turn 3 kill through no disruption is probably 50% as is just by drawing the cards. The percentage improvement from Preordain over Sleight has to be like <5%. And opponents having no removal for your first dude is pretty unlikely.
But personally I kind of like where we're at from a cantrip perspective. Not sure I'm ready for 11 cantrip xerox decks.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
And I'm on the fence about Rite of Flame and Seething Song as well, maybe one of the two but not both???
STOP using "dude/bro" as a pejorative or insult. Grow up.
Margaret Thatcher: “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.”
Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Martin Luther King Jr.: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character."
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
No clock, no Jace to fight the top deck war? GG.
Spirits
would any deck other than UR storm play those cards? id only want to see them unbanned if they spawned new/different decks. otherwise you are just asking yourself if storm needs more help. im not convinced wizards would bother even if damping sphere somehow pushes it out of the format.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)