Titanshift eats Company decks for breakfast. Their chances to win go down if they don't just explode onto the field and pray that Titanshift doesn't have Bolt/Anger/Slagstorm/Roast.
It just seems that a deck with so much mass removal for smaller humans, single removal for larger humans, and instant speed interaction, while having a quick clock, Bloodbraid Elf as a speed bump, Valakut triggers, and 2 cards that JUST WIN THE GAME (Prime Time and Scapeshift), you'd expect it to be able to beat Humans better than it does. To me in the 30 matches that I did on Thursday, it felt only a little over 50/50 and much more die roll dependent than I had originally thought.
But in some ways, I compare it to Mono White Death and Taxes. There is a direct correlation between how many Red cards we see and how often we win. If we see 2-3 Red cards vs. D and T, we probably win. If we see none and they have 2 Leonin Arbiter and 3 Ghost Quarter, we probably lose. Do you know how bad Leonin Arbiter is if they Ghost Quarter us and we Lightning Bolt in response? It's not out of the question with 4 in the main board. But Humans can close much quicker than D and T, which is why I believe that they are nearly 50/50 vs. Titanshift.
we are talking about titanshift right? the deck with tribe elders, farseek, search for tomorrow, scapeshift, summoners pact, and other various ramp spells like explore/growth spasm/hour of promise?
of course the number of red spells you draw matters, because there are so few in the deck lol. humans can goldfish around the same speed as titanshift, and they have far more main deck disruption against t-shift than t-shift has against them.
the fact that your testing was close to 50/50 is a mark against humans, not for them.
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Scapeshift wins the game on the spot. Summoner's Pact and Prime Time also tend to win the game on the spot next turn. The deck doesn't play Hour of Promise anymore; Bloodbraid Elf took that spot. Explore is a 1 of. Growth Spasm is another version that is run, but it usually takes the place of some other ramp spells. I personally side out 3 Scapeshift in the matchup. You do realize that the ramp gets you to cards that win the game on the spot? Yes, sometimes you draw too much ramp. It happens with any deck. But it can also be less harmful if Titanshift gets a single Valakut or two out in order to use the ramp as kill spells. I side out a lot of cards, including 1 Forest, Explore on the play, and 1 of a few spells, including Summoner's Pact. I side in 2 Anger of the Gods, 3 Roast, 2 Obstinate Baloth, and 1-2 Tireless Trackers, depending on how the match is going.
There are 11 "red spells" after sideboard, not including Bloodbraid Elf of course (I realize that he's a spell while on the stack). They do have a lot of disruption. I agree there. And they have a quick clock with Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and Mantis Rider. Phantasmal Image gives them 7 copies of every card in their deck. The odd thing is that while Titanshift sides in 7 cards vs. Humans, Humans sides in 2 Sin Collector, 2 Xathrid Necromancer, and 1 Mirran Crusader, but ... they get better after sideboard because of Phantasmal Image. That card makes the deck super redundant.
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Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
Hollow one is taking off online. Yesterdays Modern MOCS top 32 is:
8 Hollow one
5 Humans
3 Affinity
2 Storm
2 Mardu Pyromancer
- The rest one off's.
I see that they sometimes get several Hollow one in play turn one. Is that ok in modern?
Getting a Hollow One on t1 is rare and getting more than 1 is super rare. In a 7 card hand you've got ~40% chance of having a burning inquiry (which you need) and then of the 10 cards seen you need at least one to be a Hollowed One and not get discarded. So probably about 20% of games you get a t1 hollowed one. How that compares to t2 Griselbrands and t3 Karns is a good question to ask though.
I've been testing it at home (after getting the last 2 Big Game Hunter for the SB) and it has a terrible Humans matchup IMO. Affinity doesn't seem too good either before SB. That in itself scares me from playing the deck.
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Agreed it's rare, but you can also cycle Street Wraith plus Faithless Looting to essentially put any Hollow One in your top 10 cards into play for free. Not really convinced it's overpowered though compared to other "broken" things in the format.
hollow one has some explosive starts, but i think people hone in on that too much. even with a slower opening the deck is difficult to stabilize against with non exiling removal. the draw/discard effects coupled with recurring phoenixes and bloodghasts is particularly hard for some decks to deal with.
the deck is real. prepare accordingly.
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I've actually seriously considered replacing Murderous Cut with Reality Shift in my sideboard due to how much Hollow One has picked up in my local meta. It also helps a bit in other matchups where you really need an exile effect and you're not running white.
I know that Tron has improved because of this - when I previously ran Bogles vs. Tron, they stood a very little chance of winning. Nowadays, they're favored. (I HATE you Ugin, the Spirit Dragon!)
Hrm, I have to actually disagree with pretty much all of this. I don't think they stood very little chance of winning back in the day (i.e. pre-Ugin), that they're favored now, or that the matchup has even changed all that much in terms of favorability. Yes, Ugin is basically good game against Boggles, but they only run 1 or 2 copies, and even if drawn, Boggles has a very good chance of just winning before Ugin can even be cast.
Old Tron decks didn't have Ugin, but they did have All Is Dust. Admittedly, that isn't as common as Ugin (All Is Dust was run in maybe half the decks, Ugin is run as at least a 1-of in virtually all of them), but it was still there, and it's actually better than Ugin against Boggles as it can be cast on turn 3 and also doesn't get hit by Suppression Field.
Additionally, Spellskite was a staple, frequently played maindeck, and that card was amazing against Boggles. Nowadays it's quite rare to see it played. But perhaps most importantly, GR Tron ran Pyroclasm, and that card was actually very good against Boggles. It was astounding on the play, and while its effectiveness on the draw was variable, it could still result in some absolute blowouts. Nowadays GR Tron isn't that common and Lightning Bolt is more common in the decks that do run it.
It's true that if you want to specifically gear your Tron list to beat Boggles, you'll be better now than you were then, but then that hurts you against the other decks and it's very rare to see a Tron list that I think fits that description, one that has the new strengths versus Boggles (specifically Ugin) but without giving up the old strengths. Ultimately, I think the matchup was and is fairly even overall.
I know that Tron has improved because of this - when I previously ran Bogles vs. Tron, they stood a very little chance of winning. Nowadays, they're favored. (I HATE you Ugin, the Spirit Dragon!)
Hrm, I have to actually disagree with pretty much all of this. I don't think they stood very little chance of winning back in the day (i.e. pre-Ugin), that they're favored now, or that the matchup has even changed all that much in terms of favorability. Yes, Ugin is basically good game against Boggles, but they only run 1 or 2 copies, and even if drawn, Boggles has a very good chance of just winning before Ugin can even be cast.
Old Tron decks didn't have Ugin, but they did have All Is Dust. Admittedly, that isn't as common as Ugin (All Is Dust was run in maybe half the decks, Ugin is run as at least a 1-of in virtually all of them), but it was still there, and it's actually better than Ugin against Boggles as it can be cast on turn 3 and also doesn't get hit by Suppression Field.
Additionally, Spellskite was a staple, frequently played maindeck, and that card was amazing against Boggles. Nowadays it's quite rare to see it played. But perhaps most importantly, GR Tron ran Pyroclasm, and that card was actually very good against Boggles. It was astounding on the play, and while its effectiveness on the draw was variable, it could still result in some absolute blowouts. Nowadays GR Tron isn't that common and Lightning Bolt is more common in the decks that do run it.
It's true that if you want to specifically gear your Tron list to beat Boggles, you'll be better now than you were then, but then that hurts you against the other decks and it's very rare to see a Tron list that I think fits that description, one that has the new strengths versus Boggles (specifically Ugin) but without giving up the old strengths. Ultimately, I think the matchup was and is fairly even overall.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.
Tron is not always on the play vs. Bogles against a Bogles opponent that has 1 Slippery Bogle in his hand and none others in the whole deck. Sorry, it just doesn't play out like this very often. Bogles can win before Ugin is cast, but IF Ugin is cast, there is nothing that Bogles can do. Tron could be at 1 life and then easily play out the rest of the game without drawing a single card - just using Ugin. Pyroclasm can be good against Bogles, but usually is a 1 for 1 unless the Bogles player keeps on 1 Aura, then draws 6 straight Bogles instead of more Auras.
I have never seen a Tron list run All is Dust until just a year ago. It was mostly a meta choice and once opponents caught on, it lost at least some of its effectiveness. I never saw All is Dust in GR Tron, never. But I guess it's possible. There are players here who played against UR Twin with Simian Spirit Guide or RUG Twin with Birds of Paradise and they always lost on turn 3.
It is true that Spellskite was very good. I actually didn't play Bogles during the "highly played Twin" era where Tron main boarded multiple Spellskite, but before that, 4 Path to Exile and SB Nature's Claims should suffice against a singleton Spellskite. Yes, there are games where Bogles doesn't find those. They may even attempt to put Auras on Kor Spiritdancer to draw through their deck and it may be in the bottom 15 cards, but usually for me at least, Spellskite has mostly been a minor speed bump. The one thing that I can admit to possibly admit to being wrong about is that Tron lists nowadays are more likely to run 4 Oblivion Stone. I saw them get away with 3 for so long in order to put things like 4 Relic of Progenitus and 2 Spellskite main board.
No Tron player in their right mind would GEAR their deck to beat Bogles. This is the advantage of Bogles. Players realize that the deck sometimes loses to itself and shouldn't be seen too often at the top tables. I do agree that the matchup is fairly even.
*I think the main issue with our non agreement has to do with this. You're looking at pretty average to poor draws in the matchup. I'm looking at good to amazing draws in the matchup, which is much more memorable to me than the 1 time I lost a die roll, then got my Slippery Bogle Pyroclasm'ed and then drew 4 Ethereal Armor, followed by 4 Rancor before scooping it up.
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Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
@FCG: If you've never seen Tron run all is dust that kind of ruins your credibility on modern to me. The original GR tron deck that popped up back in the day (on MTGO I'm pretty sure) ran All is Dust, it actually took a while for O-Stone to get adopted, and then until Twin was banned O-Stone was basically mandatory. These days you sometimes see AiD still, it can be cast off tron so it's entirely meta dependent (even tho I think O-Stone is still better).
On a historical note it's actually hilarious to me how little Gx Tron has evolved from the first decklist. Who would have thought running eggs and 4 Karn would be the gold standard for so long. I can't remember who came up with the GR Tron deck but it looked a hell of a lot like modern Gx Tron. Some inspired deckbuilding.
it focuses on hollow one specifically, so the approach isnt perfect; but he outlines his assumptions and methods meticulously.
I think he made an underestimation on the odds you get early Hollow Ones. He did the calculations assuming you mull 1-landers, which many Hollow One players probably won't mull. So, a hand with Street Wraith, Faithless Looting and Hollow One and 1 land will be mulled, which nearly everybody would keep (because it gives you at least 1 Hollow One for free).
Still I guess it is a nice approximation.
EDIT: he addressed this issue in the comments.
Quote from Frank Karsten »
Good point. One-landers with Faithless Looting and Burning Inquiry are probably keepable in some cases; I hadn't given much thought to that.
It does feel a little risky, as there are plenty of hands where you might win by playing semi-fair by hardcasting Gurmag Angler, Bloodghast, and Flamewake Phoenix while disrupting them with Lightning Bolt, and these hands still really want a second land.
But if I allow players to keep one-landers wiht Looting/Inquiry, then I get the following outcomes:
P(1 Hollow One turn 1) = 21.54
P(2 Hollow One turn 1) = 3.77
P(3+ Hollow One turn 1) = 0.27
P(1 Hollow One turn 2) = 17.04
P(2 Hollow One turn 2) = 2.87
P(3+ Hollow One turn 2) = 0.23
P(0 Hollow One turn 1 or 2) = 54.3
This makes the deck more consistent at casting Hollow Ones, at the cost of increasing the number of games where you utterly fail to do anything. The truth is probably somewhat subtly in between.
As a Hollow One FNM player the last couple of months, I concur with slightly above 40% for turn 1 Hollow One. You keep 1 land and 1 Looting/Inquiry more often than not, but a lot of those times are because of turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 loot effect.
@FCG: If you've never seen Tron run all is dust that kind of ruins your credibility on modern to me. The original GR tron deck that popped up back in the day (on MTGO I'm pretty sure) ran All is Dust, it actually took a while for O-Stone to get adopted, and then until Twin was banned O-Stone was basically mandatory. These days you sometimes see AiD still, it can be cast off tron so it's entirely meta dependent (even tho I think O-Stone is still better).
I have never played online before. I play in paper. I have been tempted to do MTGO only because of Holiday Vintage and Legacy Cubes, but have barely kept from doing it (thank God).
Sorry, but I honestly never saw that card. I didn't even realize that anyone played it in Modern until a year ago when someone cast it on me on turn 3 when I was Little Kid Abzan and had turn 4 lethal on board. Admittedly, I played Modern sparingly in the beginning (I was still enjoying UW Delver free wins in Standard). I built RG Cloudpost, but it got banned before I could even try it. Then I saw Blazing Shoal also get banned. So, I missed maybe most of the first 2 years of Modern before playing it solidly for the past 6 years straight. I only played a little bit at a small 12-16 person TNM for Alliance packs, running Merfolk 3 weeks until I got tired of playing vs. 5 Affinity players. That's my background, so maybe I didn't realize that people played GR Tron when GR Cloudpost was legal or Blazing Shoal Infect was legal. My bad.
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Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
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As a Hollow One FNM player the last couple of months, I concur with slightly above 40% for turn 1 Hollow One. You keep 1 land and 1 Looting/Inquiry more often than not, but a lot of those times are because of turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 loot effect.
According to his latest statistics there's 25,5% chance to get one or more Hollow One(s) in play turn 1.
Is there a possibility that any of the Historic-cards-matters stuff in Dominaria could have an impact on artifact based decks in Modern?
It's possible, but I think that it may be like Eldrazi, the impact isn't felt as much the first time around. The idea is cool and seems ripe for breaking, but all of the cards using it look overcosted or weak. They will slip up eventually if they keep using it, but this set looks like the power is almost as weak as the flavor is excellent.
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Is there a possibility that any of the Historic-cards-matters stuff in Dominaria could have an impact on artifact based decks in Modern?
It's possible, but I think that it may be like Eldrazi, the impact isn't felt as much the first time around. The idea is cool and seems ripe for breaking, but all of the cards using it look overcosted or weak. They will slip up eventually if they keep using it, but this set looks like the power is almost as weak as the flavor is excellent.
I don't understand why they are creating another super parasitic mechanic based set with this historic stuff, didn't they learn with how bad energy was? I actually thought energy was a cool mechanic but it was just done poorly since it ruined Standard and it seems like neither of these mechanics will be seen in Modern. Maro talks trash about parasitic mechanics but then creates more? Tbh I always thought Splice into Arcane is cool and not as parasitic as it could have been if they just used it in more sets.
Is there a possibility that any of the Historic-cards-matters stuff in Dominaria could have an impact on artifact based decks in Modern?
It's possible, but I think that it may be like Eldrazi, the impact isn't felt as much the first time around. The idea is cool and seems ripe for breaking, but all of the cards using it look overcosted or weak. They will slip up eventually if they keep using it, but this set looks like the power is almost as weak as the flavor is excellent.
weak in what context? the number of modern playables?
what is an example of a strong set? or even a medium level one
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Is there a possibility that any of the Historic-cards-matters stuff in Dominaria could have an impact on artifact based decks in Modern?
It's possible, but I think that it may be like Eldrazi, the impact isn't felt as much the first time around. The idea is cool and seems ripe for breaking, but all of the cards using it look overcosted or weak. They will slip up eventually if they keep using it, but this set looks like the power is almost as weak as the flavor is excellent.
weak in what context? the number of modern playables?
what is an example of a strong set? or even a medium level one
yep. when I make a comment about power level, it is always in the context of Modern impact. A medium set would be something like the Core Sets, not too much that was new and meaningful, but a handful of staples. or either Kaladesh set. a strong set would be anything on Mirrodin, or RTR, or Innistrad, sets that their impact isn't even a question, they have multiple cards that even at a cursory glance reshape the format. I'm sure some Dominria cards will be played, and i really love it in terms of flavor. it's MILES better than Amonkhet or Ixalan blocks, and we still have a lot of cards to go, including the bread and butter cards that so often give us the real treats, but so far I see only a couple of new cards that will see post-rotation play outside of EDH, and certainly nothing that is going to make a new deck, which is one of my big things to determine a REALLY good set.
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yep. when I make a comment about power level, it is always in the context of Modern impact. A medium set would be something like the Core Sets, not too much that was new and meaningful, but a handful of staples. or either Kaladesh set. a strong set would be anything on Mirrodin, or RTR, or Innistrad, sets that their impact isn't even a question, they have multiple cards that even at a cursory glance reshape the format. I'm sure some Dominria cards will be played, and i really love it in terms of flavor. it's MILES better than Amonkhet or Ixalan blocks, and we still have a lot of cards to go, including the bread and butter cards that so often give us the real treats, but so far I see only a couple of new cards that will see post-rotation play outside of EDH, and certainly nothing that is going to make a new deck, which is one of my big things to determine a REALLY good set.
A previous user made a list of all the Modern cards from the previous few blocks, and it's fairly sizable and consistent between sets. I can't find the post I want to cite so hopefully another thread regular can locate it. There's a popular narrative that new sets are too weak for Modern with few playable cards, but when you actually look at how many cards feature in tiered and tournament-placing decks, there's a fairly wide representation. Every preview season sees players unhappy about how few cards are Modern playable, and every new set sees a number of new cards making an important Modern impact. I expect Dominaria will be no different.
Also am I the only one excited at the possibility that we get like two goblin reprints to make 8whack a beast? Warchief is back, if we get Skirk Prospector or even sparksmith the deck becomes really viable, hell if we get ringleader (I know I know let me dream) a new aggro deck might just show up. I'm giving up on Patriarch's Bidding but that would be nice.
yep. when I make a comment about power level, it is always in the context of Modern impact. A medium set would be something like the Core Sets, not too much that was new and meaningful, but a handful of staples. or either Kaladesh set. a strong set would be anything on Mirrodin, or RTR, or Innistrad, sets that their impact isn't even a question, they have multiple cards that even at a cursory glance reshape the format. I'm sure some Dominria cards will be played, and i really love it in terms of flavor. it's MILES better than Amonkhet or Ixalan blocks, and we still have a lot of cards to go, including the bread and butter cards that so often give us the real treats, but so far I see only a couple of new cards that will see post-rotation play outside of EDH, and certainly nothing that is going to make a new deck, which is one of my big things to determine a REALLY good set.
A previous user made a list of all the Modern cards from the previous few blocks, and it's fairly sizable and consistent between sets. I can't find the post I want to cite so hopefully another thread regular can locate it. There's a popular narrative that new sets are too weak for Modern with few playable cards, but when you actually look at how many cards feature in tiered and tournament-placing decks, there's a fairly wide representation. Every preview season sees players unhappy about how few cards are Modern playable, and every new set sees a number of new cards making an important Modern impact. I expect Dominaria will be no different.
yeah i wasnt trying to call Melkor out, but what you describe seems to happen pretty frequently. i just think it is interesting to see how people evaluate cards or sets.
from a standard set perspective i think dominaria is rather pushed.
as for modern impact of course there is damping sphere, but that isnt really a power card. other than that im rating the set in the medium range. a few cards might make the cut on their own merit, others might be pieces decks were looking for, and some i just have no clue about; namely the sagas.
im definitely not rating it below a core set.
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we are talking about titanshift right? the deck with tribe elders, farseek, search for tomorrow, scapeshift, summoners pact, and other various ramp spells like explore/growth spasm/hour of promise?
of course the number of red spells you draw matters, because there are so few in the deck lol. humans can goldfish around the same speed as titanshift, and they have far more main deck disruption against t-shift than t-shift has against them.
the fact that your testing was close to 50/50 is a mark against humans, not for them.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
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WCDeath and Taxes(sold)on the spotnext turn. The deck doesn't play Hour of Promise anymore; Bloodbraid Elf took that spot. Explore is a 1 of. Growth Spasm is another version that is run, but it usually takes the place of some other ramp spells. I personally side out 3 Scapeshift in the matchup. You do realize that the ramp gets you to cards that win the game on the spot? Yes, sometimes you draw too much ramp. It happens with any deck. But it can also be less harmful if Titanshift gets a single Valakut or two out in order to use the ramp as kill spells. I side out a lot of cards, including 1 Forest, Explore on the play, and 1 of a few spells, including Summoner's Pact. I side in 2 Anger of the Gods, 3 Roast, 2 Obstinate Baloth, and 1-2 Tireless Trackers, depending on how the match is going.There are 11 "red spells" after sideboard, not including Bloodbraid Elf of course (I realize that he's a spell while on the stack). They do have a lot of disruption. I agree there. And they have a quick clock with Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant, and Mantis Rider. Phantasmal Image gives them 7 copies of every card in their deck. The odd thing is that while Titanshift sides in 7 cards vs. Humans, Humans sides in 2 Sin Collector, 2 Xathrid Necromancer, and 1 Mirran Crusader, but ... they get better after sideboard because of Phantasmal Image. That card makes the deck super redundant.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)8 Hollow one
5 Humans
3 Affinity
2 Storm
2 Mardu Pyromancer
- The rest one off's.
I see that they sometimes get several Hollow one's in play turn one. Is that ok in modern?
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
Getting a Hollow One on t1 is rare and getting more than 1 is super rare. In a 7 card hand you've got ~40% chance of having a burning inquiry (which you need) and then of the 10 cards seen you need at least one to be a Hollowed One and not get discarded. So probably about 20% of games you get a t1 hollowed one. How that compares to t2 Griselbrands and t3 Karns is a good question to ask though.
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Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Burning Inquiry is not he only way, though. Street Wraith + Faithless Looting also enables turn one Hollow one(s).
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
the deck is real. prepare accordingly.
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WCDeath and Taxes(sold)That brings up the percentage a bit. I wonder if someone has done the math to figure out what the odds of getting a t1 Hollow One are.
frank karsten broke it down not too long ago.
https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-reliable-is-hollow-one/
it focuses on hollow one specifically, so the approach isnt perfect; but he outlines his assumptions and methods meticulously.
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WCDeath and Taxes(sold)Old Tron decks didn't have Ugin, but they did have All Is Dust. Admittedly, that isn't as common as Ugin (All Is Dust was run in maybe half the decks, Ugin is run as at least a 1-of in virtually all of them), but it was still there, and it's actually better than Ugin against Boggles as it can be cast on turn 3 and also doesn't get hit by Suppression Field.
Additionally, Spellskite was a staple, frequently played maindeck, and that card was amazing against Boggles. Nowadays it's quite rare to see it played. But perhaps most importantly, GR Tron ran Pyroclasm, and that card was actually very good against Boggles. It was astounding on the play, and while its effectiveness on the draw was variable, it could still result in some absolute blowouts. Nowadays GR Tron isn't that common and Lightning Bolt is more common in the decks that do run it.
It's true that if you want to specifically gear your Tron list to beat Boggles, you'll be better now than you were then, but then that hurts you against the other decks and it's very rare to see a Tron list that I think fits that description, one that has the new strengths versus Boggles (specifically Ugin) but without giving up the old strengths. Ultimately, I think the matchup was and is fairly even overall.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.
Tron is not always on the play vs. Bogles against a Bogles opponent that has 1 Slippery Bogle in his hand and none others in the whole deck. Sorry, it just doesn't play out like this very often. Bogles can win before Ugin is cast, but IF Ugin is cast, there is nothing that Bogles can do. Tron could be at 1 life and then easily play out the rest of the game without drawing a single card - just using Ugin. Pyroclasm can be good against Bogles, but usually is a 1 for 1 unless the Bogles player keeps on 1 Aura, then draws 6 straight Bogles instead of more Auras.
I have never seen a Tron list run All is Dust until just a year ago. It was mostly a meta choice and once opponents caught on, it lost at least some of its effectiveness. I never saw All is Dust in GR Tron, never. But I guess it's possible. There are players here who played against UR Twin with Simian Spirit Guide or RUG Twin with Birds of Paradise and they always lost on turn 3.
It is true that Spellskite was very good. I actually didn't play Bogles during the "highly played Twin" era where Tron main boarded multiple Spellskite, but before that, 4 Path to Exile and SB Nature's Claims should suffice against a singleton Spellskite. Yes, there are games where Bogles doesn't find those. They may even attempt to put Auras on Kor Spiritdancer to draw through their deck and it may be in the bottom 15 cards, but usually for me at least, Spellskite has mostly been a minor speed bump. The one thing that I can admit to possibly admit to being wrong about is that Tron lists nowadays are more likely to run 4 Oblivion Stone. I saw them get away with 3 for so long in order to put things like 4 Relic of Progenitus and 2 Spellskite main board.
No Tron player in their right mind would GEAR their deck to beat Bogles. This is the advantage of Bogles. Players realize that the deck sometimes loses to itself and shouldn't be seen too often at the top tables. I do agree that the matchup is fairly even.
*I think the main issue with our non agreement has to do with this. You're looking at pretty average to poor draws in the matchup. I'm looking at good to amazing draws in the matchup, which is much more memorable to me than the 1 time I lost a die roll, then got my Slippery Bogle Pyroclasm'ed and then drew 4 Ethereal Armor, followed by 4 Rancor before scooping it up.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)On a historical note it's actually hilarious to me how little Gx Tron has evolved from the first decklist. Who would have thought running eggs and 4 Karn would be the gold standard for so long. I can't remember who came up with the GR Tron deck but it looked a hell of a lot like modern Gx Tron. Some inspired deckbuilding.
As a Hollow One FNM player the last couple of months, I concur with slightly above 40% for turn 1 Hollow One. You keep 1 land and 1 Looting/Inquiry more often than not, but a lot of those times are because of turn 1 Flameblade Adept into turn 2 loot effect.
I have never played online before. I play in paper. I have been tempted to do MTGO only because of Holiday Vintage and Legacy Cubes, but have barely kept from doing it (thank God).
Sorry, but I honestly never saw that card. I didn't even realize that anyone played it in Modern until a year ago when someone cast it on me on turn 3 when I was Little Kid Abzan and had turn 4 lethal on board. Admittedly, I played Modern sparingly in the beginning (I was still enjoying UW Delver free wins in Standard). I built RG Cloudpost, but it got banned before I could even try it. Then I saw Blazing Shoal also get banned. So, I missed maybe most of the first 2 years of Modern before playing it solidly for the past 6 years straight. I only played a little bit at a small 12-16 person TNM for Alliance packs, running Merfolk 3 weeks until I got tired of playing vs. 5 Affinity players. That's my background, so maybe I didn't realize that people played GR Tron when GR Cloudpost was legal or Blazing Shoal Infect was legal. My bad.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)According to his latest statistics there's 25,5% chance to get one or more Hollow One(s) in play turn 1.
UWRUWR Delver/Lynx TempoUWR-------UWRUWR Midrange GeistUWR-------UWRUWR Nahiri ControlUWR-------UWRUWR SaheeliUWR
BGRJund / Jund ShadowBGR-------BGWAbzan / Abzan ShadowBGW
Commander (Leviathan/MTGO): UWGeist of Saint TraftUW
It's possible, but I think that it may be like Eldrazi, the impact isn't felt as much the first time around. The idea is cool and seems ripe for breaking, but all of the cards using it look overcosted or weak. They will slip up eventually if they keep using it, but this set looks like the power is almost as weak as the flavor is excellent.
I don't understand why they are creating another super parasitic mechanic based set with this historic stuff, didn't they learn with how bad energy was? I actually thought energy was a cool mechanic but it was just done poorly since it ruined Standard and it seems like neither of these mechanics will be seen in Modern. Maro talks trash about parasitic mechanics but then creates more? Tbh I always thought Splice into Arcane is cool and not as parasitic as it could have been if they just used it in more sets.
URStormRU
GRTitanshift[mana]RG/mana]
weak in what context? the number of modern playables?
what is an example of a strong set? or even a medium level one
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)yep. when I make a comment about power level, it is always in the context of Modern impact. A medium set would be something like the Core Sets, not too much that was new and meaningful, but a handful of staples. or either Kaladesh set. a strong set would be anything on Mirrodin, or RTR, or Innistrad, sets that their impact isn't even a question, they have multiple cards that even at a cursory glance reshape the format. I'm sure some Dominria cards will be played, and i really love it in terms of flavor. it's MILES better than Amonkhet or Ixalan blocks, and we still have a lot of cards to go, including the bread and butter cards that so often give us the real treats, but so far I see only a couple of new cards that will see post-rotation play outside of EDH, and certainly nothing that is going to make a new deck, which is one of my big things to determine a REALLY good set.
A previous user made a list of all the Modern cards from the previous few blocks, and it's fairly sizable and consistent between sets. I can't find the post I want to cite so hopefully another thread regular can locate it. There's a popular narrative that new sets are too weak for Modern with few playable cards, but when you actually look at how many cards feature in tiered and tournament-placing decks, there's a fairly wide representation. Every preview season sees players unhappy about how few cards are Modern playable, and every new set sees a number of new cards making an important Modern impact. I expect Dominaria will be no different.
yeah i wasnt trying to call Melkor out, but what you describe seems to happen pretty frequently. i just think it is interesting to see how people evaluate cards or sets.
from a standard set perspective i think dominaria is rather pushed.
as for modern impact of course there is damping sphere, but that isnt really a power card. other than that im rating the set in the medium range. a few cards might make the cut on their own merit, others might be pieces decks were looking for, and some i just have no clue about; namely the sagas.
im definitely not rating it below a core set.
UWGSnow-Bant Control
BURGrixis Death's Shadow
GWBCoCo Elves
WCDeath and Taxes(sold)