I always thought UWx midrange was a name for Jeskai that was labeled badly on mtgtop8 and stuck. Who knows.
Lantern is interesting, lots of people hate it but the remainder think it's really cool and interesting to play/play against. Talk about polarizing. Deck is really good and WotC hates it so, I'm not feeling good about it.
Exactly and playing against turn 4-6 ulamog 25-30% of your matches is way more annoying than a deck that you run into 2 percent of the time. AM was banned because it was powerful and it was everywhere, in the same way energy was powerful and everywhwre. Energy wasn't considered unbeatable either, it was banned because it had slight edges on every other deck and was 40% of the meta. Anything that's slightly annoying to play against that you see a lot just gets more annoying. And if Lantern becomes 15% of the meta I will crusade for it to be banned but it won't because it's too difficult to pilot for most players. If lantern were to get a ban because it's just straight up too good then fine, but a banning for any other reason would be absurd.
Good for LSV for practicing with the deck 3 months ahead. It showed. Pros can't just pick it up and jam it for a week on MTGO and expect to win a huge tournament.
It's amazing what decks make people happy
I own Jeskai but haven't played it too much. I watched my friend play Jeskai in 5 blue mirrors at the Classic, after watching that I absolutely don't want to play a blue control deck minus certain unbans occurring. After Mondays announcement I'm going to sell the deck off and keep Snapcaster Mage and Scalding Tarn for Grixis Shadow, even though I don't like playing Grixis Shadow over Jund or even Traverse Shadow.
Probably going to sell off my Tax pieces that don't go into Humans. Buying into Humans scares me because I don't know if it'll really be a pillar a year from now.
Hard to be sure just how it will impact their decisions, but Wizards is absolutely wary and aware of Lantern, to the point that they specifically didn't want to unable Sword of the Meek out of fear that it would turn the deck into an unstoppable monstrosity. Make of that what you will.
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Vorthos-y Johnny. All will be One
Modern - Cheeri0s (building), Belcher (building), Lantern (building), UW Control (building)
RIP Magic Duels. Wizards will regret what they did to you.
A deck wins a PT, 2 GPs and some top8s while being played by 3 guys and a dog worldwide. And providing a completely miserable watching experience in the process. And then people talk about possible bans.
Fixed.
You just described UWx Control.
I'm sorry, but URx Control is the best magic that can be watched.
A deck winning a Pro Tour (NOT) a reason to ban something. #WOTCstaff
This is encouraging towards a "NO BANS (regarding Lantern)" decision. Props to Aaron if he keeps that "promise"(because it's not exactly a promise)!
Now, they have to decide if the deck is bannable leaving the fact that it won the Pro Tour outside. If they feel it is, they may ban something, but I feel that's highly unlikely.
That said, this tweet would make me feel safe if I was a Lantern player!
I don't believe he would tweet something like this, if they were to ban something from the deck(not 100% sure though).
Holy communication. Wizards is crushing it this year with the open lines of conversation. I think this is a pretty good indicator that a ban is unlikely. Possible, yes, but unlikely. It would have been easier to just not write this Tweet at all, or phrase it differently. It's certainly possible that other factors will lead to a ban beyond the PT win alone, but all in all this is the kind of Tweet which points away from the ban hammer, not towards it.
Speaking of positive Tweets, for those worried about a DS-targeted ban, we have this one too:
Overall, these are the kinds of encouraging communications we want to see. It suggests bans are less likely than unbans/no changes. It also continues a yearlong trend of strong communication, especially during times of community outcry and distress.
Right call from Forsythe. It would be a bad call to ban a deck that has just won the Pro Tour and not much else last year when everybody is already with the "Pro Tour winner will get banned" thinking.
However, I am still sure that Lantern is the best deck and if I'm right it will win more events this year and this will be enough to ban something (probably Whir or Bridge). 1 PT + 3 GPs in the same year looks like a good reason to ban something in modern and I doubt many people would question that.
About Stirrings, playing a colorless deck has a real deckbuilding cost, although I think he just meant "we don't want to ban Tron out of the format".
It was very predictable that a good result from Lantern would occur (if it was played), and that people would talk about it. It's the one deck that is both relatively unpopular and strong enough to win in certain metagames (narrow ones like a PT are ideal). It's also a deck that has fed hot discussions since its first performances. It was only 1 copy in the top8 though, and games were often close.
As I stated in response to Froelich's latest article about Modern, it is the only deck I could see make waves. Guess what, it's happening right now. I don't think I'm the only one who saw it coming. From there, it's no big surprise, and it was a very clever choice for the tournament.
The deck doesn't need a banning because it's not as broken as the most paranoid souls think, Whir pushed the deck to its full potential, but there's absolutely no data to prove the format can't reasonably react to it if it becomes abnormally popular in the near future.
Everytime a weird deck will make a big perf, we'll talk about whether it needs intervention. Tomorrow, Jeskai Ascendancy gets a new card that pushes it, the day after GR Ponza crushes a tournament, then Tron makes its big return. No matter what it is, it takes more than a tournament to worry me.
Mardu Pyromancer was also a clever choice, it preys on Humans and other various creature decks.
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Pioneer - A bunch of stuff Modern - Humans Legacy - Grixis Phoenix / Death & Taxes
The fact is, if WOTC chooses to ban a deck based on the lack of popularity and the "annoyingness" of playing against it, that will be the first time in Magic History that a deck was banned for those reasons and it's just not going to happen.
Lol what? What share of the meta did AM have when it got the ax? It had at least 30%+ if I remember correctly. That makes the deck very popular to play not unpopular. And it was axed because it made the decks that were already strong even more strong. It's not even close to being the same argument. If Marvel was 2% of the meta in standard, it would have never ever ever been considered for the chopping block.
It was sitting on ~25% of the meta, which is not bannable in Standard. For example, past standard decks with Siege Rhino or those Delver of Secrets decks that were sitting on ~40-50% of the meta, would have been banned.
Marvel was banned for those reasons. The announcement reads:
A turn-four Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger is virtually game over, which, according to Frank Karsten, happens in around just 9.4% of games. Having 10% of your games end that quickly is justifiably unpalatable to most of you. The best games of Magic are ones that involve counterplay on both sides. For those reasons, we believe Aetherworks Marvel needed to go, even though it is not unbeatable.
Essentially, it was banned because Having many games of yours end that quickly is justifiably unpalatable to most of you. That's clearly an unfun criterion in Standard. One could make an argument that it got banned because attendancy was dropping too much also. For me, it's the same thing.
Its unfunness may have been an important part, but remember the original post said "The fact is, if WOTC chooses to ban a deck based on the lack of popularity and the "annoyingness" of playing against it, that will be the first time in Magic History that a deck was banned for those reasons and it's just not going to happen." Aetherworks Marvel might have escaped the banning if it wasn't as annoying to play against as it was, but that doesn't mean its metagame share wasn't a major factor in it still.
Although, even if it were less "annoying" but still had such a big metagame share, does that mean it would have escaped banning? Its metagame share was around that of Temur Energy, which also got banned despite not having the problem of a possible turn 4 Ulamog.
I do note that they stress that Aetherworks Marvel wasn't unbeatable. But has any Standard deck been legitimately unbeatable? It seems like all of the big Standard decks have had some weakness or another. Heck, the whole reason Stasis stopped being a junk rare was because people figured out it would beat Necropotence which was on top at the time. Even crazy decks like Tolarian Academy and Memory Jar could be beaten by going up against equally degenerate decks, such as each other. Technically they were never simultaneously legal but if Academy had somehow not gotten the banning I think they probably would've been a match for each other. I wonder if anyone has ever figured out how they'd stack up against each other? I know Randy Buehler played Jar against Academy in one of the Gauntlet of Greatness episodes (for the record, Memory Jar won) but that was only one match. Okay, I'm really off topic now.
I am certain Lord_Seth can step in and tell his opinion about this as well, because I remember that he had a pretty spot on view about it the previous time...
Oh please, just call me Lord Seth. No need for the unnecessary underscore.
Though I'm a little unsure what you're referring to here. The main points I've made regarding Aetherworks Marvel's ban have been:
1) The Emrakul/Smuggler's Copter/Reflector Mage bans were almost custom-made to turn Aetherworks Marvel into the best deck because they hurt every single other deck in the format while leaving Aetherworks Marvel untouched. Okay, Aetherworks Marvel did play Emrakul, but Emrakul was very easily replaced with Ulamog in Aetherworks Marvel, whereas the non-Aetherworks Marvel decks that played Emrakul, which relied on filling up the graveyard in order to cast him, couldn't switch to Ulamog.
2) No ban for Aetherworks Marvel would have been necessary had proper answer cards been printed. In fact, simply having Scrabbling Claws, Torpor Orb, and Pithing Needle legal may have negated any need for bannings in Standard, including even CopyCat!
3) Bannings, at least in Standard, seem to come less from anything like metagame dominance and more from attendance drops.
#3 seems the only one relevant to this, although it's also the one I've discussed the least, I believe. Still, in Standard at least, it seems fairly clear that bannings come not from dominance but from attendance. They specifically cite lack of attendance as the rationale for banning Jace and Stoneforge, even saying they would have left them alone had players been okay with Caw-Blade's dominance. And when there were calls to ban Delver due to it being a huge part of the metagame and having tremendous success, they cited more people playing in competitive events than ever before as a reason to not ban it.
I don't think they said anything about attendance in regards to the recent slew of bannings (starting with the trio of Mage/Emrakul/Copter and going to the recent bannings), but from anecdotal evidence, Standard attendance was plummeting, though ironically I think the worst drops in Standard attendance came after they started banning things. It's hard to tell if that's the result of the bans or of the various problems that continued in the metagame, though. But this at least backs up the idea that they're fine with huge metagame shares (which are really the norm in Standard, quite frankly) as long as players don't seem to mind.
I personally don't think there's any reason to ban anything in lantern yet. I really don't think it would have been such a shoe in to win the PT had Pascal Vieren beat Gerry Thompson. Luis Salvatto just played a good decision on the day and was lucky and got reasonable matchups. It not a broken format, no corrections necessary.
What if we go full tin foil and think WotC wants lantern to be good. Standard has been garbage for so long that even more players fled for modern than you would normally expect and now that standard is at least on the way back to being playable having modern be more unfun works out well for WotC. The format isn't so bad as to make it obvious they are trying to do anything like that, but a bit of unfun lantern bring people back to their flagship product.
What if we go full tin foil and think WotC wants lantern to be good. Standard has been garbage for so long that even more players fled for modern than you would normally expect and now that standard is at least on the way back to being playable having modern be more unfun works out well for WotC. The format isn't so bad as to make it obvious they are trying to do anything like that, but a bit of unfun lantern bring people back to their flagship product.
Yikes. It's worrisome that people post stuff like this even as a joke. Let's just pretend to entertain it to see why it's super off-base. If Wizards truly wanted to hurt Modern and help Standard, they could just do a lot of random Modern bans, drop event support, stop posting about it in major channels, not print reprints to keep prices high, etc. There are plenty of ways to do this. Given that they are doing none of those things (and sometimes doing the opposite), however, I'm going to say this isn't on their agenda. If they don't ban something, it's because a) the format is healthy and likely b) Wizards knows that a more hands-off banning approach is better for Modern at this point.
Nothing needs banned, the format is healthy. In fact the weekends PT is kind of proof of this fact. Nothing occupied an overwhelming portion of the metagame and lantern kept the linier decks on check.
I wonder if possibility to increase desire for recent cards might be a factor in any unbannings? A Splinter Twin or Jace unban would increase desire for Opt and Search for Azcanta (both from Ixalan), whereas Stoneforge Mystic or Bloodbraid Elf don't really go into decks regularly running cards from the last few sets.
As far as I am concerned lantern was just the right choice for this tournament, next week everyone will be ready. It is similar as to why affinity was both popular and did quite well. Just not enough, artifact hate. As mentioned by Paul, Gerry T thought he didn't need much because he had lingering souls against affinity. And we saw Reid Duke meta game his Abzan deck to not need Path (or much white) and got punished by a turbo large creature deck in the top 8. They made good choices for the meta game but not for the top 8.
Its important not to have such a results based thinking.
Modern doesn't rotate.... the metagame rotates.... based on how many sideboard slots people want to dedicate to any one match up. All i know is that last week and this week and probably next week are not a good meta game for my deck, since its terrible against humans. I failed at my weekly LGS modern tournament last week because field of ruin based control and mid range picked up in popularity (along with other land hate). But my deck just smashes lantern control, I don't win with creatures, I have hurkyl's recall in my sideboard, I am ready. The meta will keep rotating. The good news is that hate for lantern is also hate for affinity and often hate against hate for your deck.
IF I wanted to ban anything it would be ancient stirrings, not just based on lantern but also the good performance by tron and of all things Ironworks combo.
I wonder if possibility to increase desire for recent cards might be a factor in any unbannings? A Splinter Twin or Jace unban would increase desire for Opt and Search for Azcanta (both from Ixalan), whereas Stoneforge Mystic or Bloodbraid Elf don't really go into decks regularly running cards from the last few sets.
I've been away from this message board a while, but are we able to talk about a certain red enchantment again? I would like to but I thought we still couldn't do that.
I think we should be seriously talking about GSZ. Green is arguably as bad off as white in the format, and the pro tour results bear that out, though I would of course take them with a grain of salt. And GSZ unlike stoneforge actually does enforce green as the core.
The lack of any diversity in green midrange decks (they all play collected company) is boring. Titanshift is fine but beatable, and the card does not drop into it -- there're lots of arguments for summoner's pact being outright better build-wise. Perhaps they play it, but it isn't necessarily better.
Having the option to play green with GSZ but no company would, in my opinion, really open up the green deckbuilding.
You said all green decks play CoCo, then mention a green deck that doesn't play CoCo...
The fact is, if WOTC chooses to ban a deck based on the lack of popularity and the "annoyingness" of playing against it, that will be the first time in Magic History that a deck was banned for those reasons and it's just not going to happen.
Great video, and honest analysis of the cards currently debated in Modern from MTGGoldfish;
While Jace and Deathrite should probably stay on the banned list, Stoneforge Mystic and Bloodbraid Elf might have a brighter future in the Modern format. While both of the cards are strong, I'm not sure they are too strong for the format. Stoneforge Mystic is oddly slow in a lot of matchups. Even if nothing goes wrong, a Turn 3 Batterskull still loses to all of the unfair decks in the format, and Fatal Push gives the format another solid answer to Stoneforge Mystic itself. Meanwhile, fair midrange decks like Jund have fallen by the wayside in Modern recently, and Bloodbraid Elf might be the shot in the arm the archetype needs to at least be somewhat competitive. While being a two-for-one is nice, there's a lot of variance involved, and without Deathrite Shaman allowing Bloodbraid Elf to come down on Turn 3, it seems pretty fair in a format with Goryo's Vengeance and Hollow Ones taking over games on Turn 2 and Karn Liberated and Storm kills happening on Turn 3.
The fact is, if WOTC chooses to ban a deck based on the lack of popularity and the "annoyingness" of playing against it, that will be the first time in Magic History that a deck was banned for those reasons and it's just not going to happen.
Not true, eggs was in a very similar boat.
If you look at the ban announcement for Second Sunrise, the reason Eggs got removed as a deck was because in most tournaments the players would not only go to time, but the final 5 turns of the game would take 15 minutes or more. This for larger events like a GP will cause the event to run hours later than it was initially scheduled to. As such, Eggs got the axe.
It is a misconception that Eggs was banned for being unfun. It was banned because it turned tournament into logistical nightmares because of how long it's turns took when it went to combo off.
This is very distinct from Lantern, where if you go to time, your five turns will usually take all of about 60 seconds.
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Modern Decks: UBG Lantern Control GBU BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
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Lantern is interesting, lots of people hate it but the remainder think it's really cool and interesting to play/play against. Talk about polarizing. Deck is really good and WotC hates it so, I'm not feeling good about it.
It's amazing what decks make people happy
I own Jeskai but haven't played it too much. I watched my friend play Jeskai in 5 blue mirrors at the Classic, after watching that I absolutely don't want to play a blue control deck minus certain unbans occurring. After Mondays announcement I'm going to sell the deck off and keep Snapcaster Mage and Scalding Tarn for Grixis Shadow, even though I don't like playing Grixis Shadow over Jund or even Traverse Shadow.
Probably going to sell off my Tax pieces that don't go into Humans. Buying into Humans scares me because I don't know if it'll really be a pillar a year from now.
Modern - Cheeri0s (building), Belcher (building), Lantern (building), UW Control (building)
RIP Magic Duels. Wizards will regret what they did to you.
I'm sorry, but URx Control is the best magic that can be watched.
Spirits
Holy communication. Wizards is crushing it this year with the open lines of conversation. I think this is a pretty good indicator that a ban is unlikely. Possible, yes, but unlikely. It would have been easier to just not write this Tweet at all, or phrase it differently. It's certainly possible that other factors will lead to a ban beyond the PT win alone, but all in all this is the kind of Tweet which points away from the ban hammer, not towards it.
Speaking of positive Tweets, for those worried about a DS-targeted ban, we have this one too:
"More Tarmogoyfs than Death’s Shadows in the Top 8 of #PTRIX. Don’t count the green guy out!"
https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/959879631150002176
Overall, these are the kinds of encouraging communications we want to see. It suggests bans are less likely than unbans/no changes. It also continues a yearlong trend of strong communication, especially during times of community outcry and distress.
He's wrong about Stirrings.
Spirits
However, I am still sure that Lantern is the best deck and if I'm right it will win more events this year and this will be enough to ban something (probably Whir or Bridge). 1 PT + 3 GPs in the same year looks like a good reason to ban something in modern and I doubt many people would question that.
About Stirrings, playing a colorless deck has a real deckbuilding cost, although I think he just meant "we don't want to ban Tron out of the format".
Don't want to ban anything? Fine, unban.
Spirits
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
Not what I want, but what we will get.
Spirits
As I stated in response to Froelich's latest article about Modern, it is the only deck I could see make waves. Guess what, it's happening right now. I don't think I'm the only one who saw it coming. From there, it's no big surprise, and it was a very clever choice for the tournament.
The deck doesn't need a banning because it's not as broken as the most paranoid souls think, Whir pushed the deck to its full potential, but there's absolutely no data to prove the format can't reasonably react to it if it becomes abnormally popular in the near future.
Everytime a weird deck will make a big perf, we'll talk about whether it needs intervention. Tomorrow, Jeskai Ascendancy gets a new card that pushes it, the day after GR Ponza crushes a tournament, then Tron makes its big return. No matter what it is, it takes more than a tournament to worry me.
Mardu Pyromancer was also a clever choice, it preys on Humans and other various creature decks.
If only they always held this kind of mantra.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Although, even if it were less "annoying" but still had such a big metagame share, does that mean it would have escaped banning? Its metagame share was around that of Temur Energy, which also got banned despite not having the problem of a possible turn 4 Ulamog.
I do note that they stress that Aetherworks Marvel wasn't unbeatable. But has any Standard deck been legitimately unbeatable? It seems like all of the big Standard decks have had some weakness or another. Heck, the whole reason Stasis stopped being a junk rare was because people figured out it would beat Necropotence which was on top at the time. Even crazy decks like Tolarian Academy and Memory Jar could be beaten by going up against equally degenerate decks, such as each other. Technically they were never simultaneously legal but if Academy had somehow not gotten the banning I think they probably would've been a match for each other. I wonder if anyone has ever figured out how they'd stack up against each other? I know Randy Buehler played Jar against Academy in one of the Gauntlet of Greatness episodes (for the record, Memory Jar won) but that was only one match. Okay, I'm really off topic now.
Oh please, just call me Lord Seth. No need for the unnecessary underscore.
Though I'm a little unsure what you're referring to here. The main points I've made regarding Aetherworks Marvel's ban have been:
1) The Emrakul/Smuggler's Copter/Reflector Mage bans were almost custom-made to turn Aetherworks Marvel into the best deck because they hurt every single other deck in the format while leaving Aetherworks Marvel untouched. Okay, Aetherworks Marvel did play Emrakul, but Emrakul was very easily replaced with Ulamog in Aetherworks Marvel, whereas the non-Aetherworks Marvel decks that played Emrakul, which relied on filling up the graveyard in order to cast him, couldn't switch to Ulamog.
2) No ban for Aetherworks Marvel would have been necessary had proper answer cards been printed. In fact, simply having Scrabbling Claws, Torpor Orb, and Pithing Needle legal may have negated any need for bannings in Standard, including even CopyCat!
3) Bannings, at least in Standard, seem to come less from anything like metagame dominance and more from attendance drops.
#3 seems the only one relevant to this, although it's also the one I've discussed the least, I believe. Still, in Standard at least, it seems fairly clear that bannings come not from dominance but from attendance. They specifically cite lack of attendance as the rationale for banning Jace and Stoneforge, even saying they would have left them alone had players been okay with Caw-Blade's dominance. And when there were calls to ban Delver due to it being a huge part of the metagame and having tremendous success, they cited more people playing in competitive events than ever before as a reason to not ban it.
I don't think they said anything about attendance in regards to the recent slew of bannings (starting with the trio of Mage/Emrakul/Copter and going to the recent bannings), but from anecdotal evidence, Standard attendance was plummeting, though ironically I think the worst drops in Standard attendance came after they started banning things. It's hard to tell if that's the result of the bans or of the various problems that continued in the metagame, though. But this at least backs up the idea that they're fine with huge metagame shares (which are really the norm in Standard, quite frankly) as long as players don't seem to mind.
Yikes. It's worrisome that people post stuff like this even as a joke. Let's just pretend to entertain it to see why it's super off-base. If Wizards truly wanted to hurt Modern and help Standard, they could just do a lot of random Modern bans, drop event support, stop posting about it in major channels, not print reprints to keep prices high, etc. There are plenty of ways to do this. Given that they are doing none of those things (and sometimes doing the opposite), however, I'm going to say this isn't on their agenda. If they don't ban something, it's because a) the format is healthy and likely b) Wizards knows that a more hands-off banning approach is better for Modern at this point.
Its important not to have such a results based thinking.
Modern doesn't rotate.... the metagame rotates.... based on how many sideboard slots people want to dedicate to any one match up. All i know is that last week and this week and probably next week are not a good meta game for my deck, since its terrible against humans. I failed at my weekly LGS modern tournament last week because field of ruin based control and mid range picked up in popularity (along with other land hate). But my deck just smashes lantern control, I don't win with creatures, I have hurkyl's recall in my sideboard, I am ready. The meta will keep rotating. The good news is that hate for lantern is also hate for affinity and often hate against hate for your deck.
IF I wanted to ban anything it would be ancient stirrings, not just based on lantern but also the good performance by tron and of all things Ironworks combo.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
You said all green decks play CoCo, then mention a green deck that doesn't play CoCo...
Not true, eggs was in a very similar boat.
Link to video
If you look at the ban announcement for Second Sunrise, the reason Eggs got removed as a deck was because in most tournaments the players would not only go to time, but the final 5 turns of the game would take 15 minutes or more. This for larger events like a GP will cause the event to run hours later than it was initially scheduled to. As such, Eggs got the axe.
It is a misconception that Eggs was banned for being unfun. It was banned because it turned tournament into logistical nightmares because of how long it's turns took when it went to combo off.
This is very distinct from Lantern, where if you go to time, your five turns will usually take all of about 60 seconds.
Modern Decks:
UBG Lantern Control GBU
BRG Bridge-Vine GRB
Commander Decks
UBG Muldrotha, Value Elemental GBU
BRG Windgrace Real-Estate Ltd. GRB
#PayThePros