PS: People, like cfusion pm, saying that they will ban/unban something right before the PT probably proven hugely wrong today. Instead, it seems like Wizards will follow a "unban a card after the Pro Tour and ban something only if it's Eldrazi winter stuff" policy from now on. This is totally correct in my eyes.
I'll believe it when that B&R comes and goes with "no changes." It'd be easier to believe if they didn't make so many other statements, changes, and claims that were either extremely misleading or later walked back on.
But if they actually do hold to this, I feel it's almost like they would rather let another Modern PT be a miserable dumpster fire so they can justify removing it (again). Or maybe use it as a means to swoop in and be the "hero" by giving us back cards that have no business being banned as an apology for an awful PT. I mean, that's what they did in 2016 (even thought it had no meaningful impact...). They get to sit back on a "healthy" meta, do nothing, and then be the hero. Makes sense.
As far as them claiming Modern is "healthy," it looks like their definition of "healthy" is based solely on how many decks people are playing and nothing at all on the quality of gameplay or nuances and interplay of top decks. Doesn't matter that all the top decks are miserable, toxic, and narrow to play against, where most games result in wildly swingy, variance-driven outcomes. As long as there are a lot OF decks, it doesn't matter what they ARE. Very disappointed to have this fear confirmed.
I'm definitely not selling out of Modern, but at least if Modern is going to continue to be so toxic and miserable, I don't have to worry about making time to fit in FNMs until after January. More of the same is a pretty terrible place to be, IMO.
Glad you're at least willing to acknowledge that this is solely your opinion, although the conspiracy theory of WOTC trying to sabotage modern could use some evidence besides "there is going to be a modern PT and I don't like modern."
Modern is just less marketable for WotC. It stands to reason that the bigger cash cow (Standard) being in a better place than one driven mostly by the secondary market is desirable for WotC. Sure, saying they're sabotaging Modern is a little extreme, but I wouldn't put it past a business to take their time fixing something if it means people start to gravitate towards the sleeker, more tuned product that they make more money off of. I don't think reintroducing Modern to the PT is a conspiracy to actively shrink Modern numbers, I just think if the Modern PT ends up being solved and linear/non-interactive, and if more people start Standard for a breath of fresh air, WotC wouldn't shed many tears.
Modern is just less marketable for WotC. It stands to reason that the bigger cash cow (Standard) being in a better place than one driven mostly by the secondary market is desirable for WotC. Sure, saying they're sabotaging Modern is a little extreme, but I wouldn't put it past a business to take their time fixing something if it means people start to gravitate towards the sleeker, more tuned product that they make more money off of. I don't think reintroducing Modern to the PT is a conspiracy to actively shrink Modern numbers, I just think if the Modern PT ends up being solved and linear/non-interactive, and if more people start Standard for a breath of fresh air, WotC wouldn't shed many tears.
Exactly. "Sabotage" is probably too strong of a word, but the thin lines between laziness, incompetence, and negligence become more and more blurred when there's almost no downside to inaction or letting things fail before coming in like a hero and "fixing" it after the fact. It's a risk/reward philosophy, and doing nothing right now is very low risk.
BBE can whiff with a removal spell that doesn't hit or a discard spell when the opponent has no cards in hand. It can also hit a Bob or a thoughtseize against burn.
Coco can be used to gain infinite life, deal infinite damage, make the opponent lose a bunch of life to win the game, hit 2 removal spells with a big game hunter and a reclamation mage, etc.
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Modern
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
To be fair, what would Bloodbraid Elf even do in this format? What actual issues it would fix for the decks those could play it? I could imagine that someone would try to abuse something like Ancestral Visions with it but outside of that it just feels like too slow and too bad card especially on the draw. I could be wrong tho.
But whatever is the case it doesn’t belong on the banned list.
To be fair, what would Bloodbraid Elf even do in this format? What actual issues it would fix for the decks those could play it? I could imagine that someone would try to abuse something like Ancestral Visions with it but outside of that it just feels like too slow and too bad card especially on the draw. I could be wrong tho.
But whatever is the case it doesn’t belong on the banned list.
B-b-but... Bloodbraid Elf into Liliana! BLOODBRAID ELF INTO LILIANA!
As far as I can tell, that's the only argument people have for it being banned. Or at least it's what people try to bring up whenever I suggest the card should be unbanned.
B-b-but... Bloodbraid Elf into Liliana! BLOODBRAID ELF INTO LILIANA!
As far as I can tell, that's the only argument people have for it being banned. Or at least it's what people try to bring up whenever I suggest the card should be unbanned.
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End. There's also the possibility that it could bust something coming up in Rivals, but barring that I really don't see why it needs to remain banned.
... but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
So you would cut like Simian Spirit Guides, Fulminator Mages and possible Faerie Macabres and Beast Withins + all converted manacost of three sideboard cards for playing Elf?
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
fair play my friend. I too suffer at the hands of trying to access MTGS on a mobile, and all the nonsense that ensues.
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Modern: G Tron, Vannifar, Jund, Druid/Vizier combo, Humans, Eldrazi Stompy (Serum Powder), Amulet, Grishoalbrand, Breach Titan, Turns, Eternal Command, As Foretold Living End, Elves, Cheerios, RUG Scapeshift
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
fair play my friend. I too suffer at the hands of trying to access MTGS on a mobile, and all the nonsense that ensues.
Thanks for understanding. Back to talking about MTG, it'll be interesting to see how the PT goes next year. Is the sky falling, or is Modern in a decent place? Kind of weird to put all of that on a PT, but that seems to be the situation. One thing I think we can all agree on is that the top decks, while diverse among themselves, aren't what we want among the best decks.
I don't really have a problem with any one of the top decks except Titanshift, and that's just my personal bias, but having all of them be the best of their respective archetypes is problematic.
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
fair play my friend. I too suffer at the hands of trying to access MTGS on a mobile, and all the nonsense that ensues.
Thanks for understanding. Back to talking about MTG, it'll be interesting to see how the PT goes next year. Is the sky falling, or is Modern in a decent place? Kind of weird to put all of that on a PT, but that seems to be the situation. One thing I think we can all agree on is that the top decks, while diverse among themselves, aren't what we want among the best decks.
I don't really have a problem with any one of the top decks except Titanshift, and that's just my personal bias, but having all of them be the best of their respective archetypes is problematic.
Why is it problematic? Why is it worse that, for instance, Grixis Shadow is the best three color midrange deck instead of a traditional jund?
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End.
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
fair play my friend. I too suffer at the hands of trying to access MTGS on a mobile, and all the nonsense that ensues.
Thanks for understanding. Back to talking about MTG, it'll be interesting to see how the PT goes next year. Is the sky falling, or is Modern in a decent place? Kind of weird to put all of that on a PT, but that seems to be the situation. One thing I think we can all agree on is that the top decks, while diverse among themselves, aren't what we want among the best decks.
I don't really have a problem with any one of the top decks except Titanshift, and that's just my personal bias, but having all of them be the best of their respective archetypes is problematic.
You raise an interesting point by talking about the top decks in this way:
Neither titanshift or eldrazi tron has placed well at a large tournament in a long time. This recent scg Charlotte event showed E-tron having one of the worst conversion rates I think I've seen, with a large number of total players on the deck, 15 making day two and then only one just barely scraping into the top 32. Titanshift is hardly any better (in fact to be brutally honest it's worse)
Both decks are suffering from "everyone says this deck is good but results aren't backing up this assertion", which is sort of weird!
We know that both decks have had a relatively recent spike in popularity, but this really isn't translating into actual results. Obviously there's a lot of factors playing into this. There's no one solution to the puzzle.
But the fact remains there's a lot of vocal individuals making themselves heard on streams, comments-sections and on forums to the effect that these two decks (specifically these decks) are like the death of modern or something, and the sky is falling and for some reason they need to be banned or it's all doom & gloom, and they are going to quit modern.
It's a specific kind of person that will persistently hang around these places online and just hammer a negative opinion over and over, rather than taking their leave or looking for positive alternatives. I don't think it's particularly helpful as a narrative (partly because it's so visible, these people take efforts to be seen) and I'm confused by the disconnect between actual results, modern metagame analysis, anecdotal local results and the persistent whining coming from this vocal minority.
Maybe there's something I'm missing, but I haven't seen any actual evidence that modern is in any kind of doldrums or bad way. Seems fine, like genuinely fine. You can pretty much play what you want, there's decent sideboard options in basically every colour, splashing for additional colours in your deck is easier than ever and no single deck is in a dominating format-warping position. Moreover, just like always, the metagame pendulum is constantly swinging and before long we'll see that familiar flux happening with decks rising and falling on the rankings. Everyone's so keen to take a snapshot of modern and cry foul, without acknowledging the changing nature that's always been part of the format.
Anyway that's not a dig at you personally, it just addresses a point echoed by your comment. I was addressing the community at-large not picking on you. Hope that's clear
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Modern: G Tron, Vannifar, Jund, Druid/Vizier combo, Humans, Eldrazi Stompy (Serum Powder), Amulet, Grishoalbrand, Breach Titan, Turns, Eternal Command, As Foretold Living End, Elves, Cheerios, RUG Scapeshift
BBE can whiff with a removal spell that doesn't hit or a discard spell when the opponent has no cards in hand. It can also hit a Bob or a thoughtseize against burn.
Coco can be used to gain infinite life, deal infinite damage, make the opponent lose a bunch of life to win the game, hit 2 removal spells with a big game hunter and a reclamation mage, etc.
I think BBE is a safe unban, but I’ve always found the argument that BBE can whiff inadequate because the situations in which BBE general whiffs are in situations where you’re already ahead (generally).
Hitting a Terminate on an empty board sounds like you’ve successfully kept the board clean so that BBE can get in for some clean damage.
Hitting a Thoughtseize when the opponent has no cards probably means you’ve already ripped apart their hand as it is. Having your opponent hellbent is exactly what a deck like Jund wants.
Let’s not pretend that Bloodbraid Elf is some kind of weak draft chaff card that’s been sidelined for no reason. It’s true that CoCo can lead to some pretty big swings, but it can also whiff. A deck that uses Bloodbraid Elf will be designed to get the best use out of the cascade trigger, just like a deck running CoCo will be designed to most often hit business.
BBE is about on par with CoCo. It has a bit more variance, but it can do stuff that’s equally as busted as CoCo. Should it still be on the banlist? Probably not. Is it some kind of innocent martyr that’s junk? No.
I think BBE is a safe unban, but I’ve always found the argument that BBE can whiff inadequate because the situations in which BBE general whiffs are in situations where you’re already ahead (generally).
Yep, that's the point people forget.
BBE can also hit bolt (always relevant), kolaghan's command (2 or 3 for 1, counting the elf); add to that that BBE inclusion in a deck will shape the deck content to optimize it. Finally, people constantly overlook that cascade is a cast trigger, so unlike CoCo, you are guaranteed the extra spell, unlike CoCo where a counter negates everything.
Both Jund and GDS win by CA, mostly, out-grinding until something is un-answered, while answering or pre-emptively disrupting. BBE is all about the question if it is better than snapcaster. BBE would be disruptive to the metagame because it is different enough and would bring other things in its wake. For one, it's bigger and hit immediately (although snap flash is mostly equivalent), it's built-in CA is different enough (not dependent on GY, not counterable, not restricted to instants, more random), and playing green instead of blue, IMO, would bring back abrupt decay, which does impact the meta. There may be other cards that are under the radar because BG is under-played.
You gotta give me more than "would bring other things in its wake." This is why I'm always concerned about bans or unbans short of Eldrazi Winter situations - odds are nobody can accurately predict the full ripple effect.
It's a specific kind of person that will persistently hang around these places online and just hammer a negative opinion over and over, rather than taking their leave or looking for positive alternatives. I don't think it's particularly helpful as a narrative (partly because it's so visible, these people take efforts to be seen) and I'm confused by the disconnect between actual results, modern metagame analysis, anecdotal local results and the persistent whining coming from this vocal minority.
Not to discount the presence of those inclined to whine regardless, but I think there's an easy answer to the bolded part. With the available data sources, "modern metagame analysis" is fairly worthless. Once we no longer had the old 5-0 list format, we're left with a mix of subpar sources -- poorly attended Modern Challenges especially prone to rogue decks, SCG events that are few and far between, and 5-0s that are intentionally curated to make the format look diverse.
In the absence of objective data, people rely more on anecdotal evidence. There's no easy way to rebuff complaints just as there's no easy way to support them. So narratives (composed of one's particular experiences or the opinion of a popular player) become the currency of arguments. Obviously data can't capture everything (such as subjective factors like fun), but the quality of discussion, analysis, etc. all suffers when WoTC decides to be even less transparent about the available data.
You gotta give me more than "would bring other things in its wake." This is why I'm always concerned about bans or unbans short of Eldrazi Winter situations - odds are nobody can accurately predict the full ripple effect.
This is pretty true. When they announced the Gitaxian Probe ban, people claimed Death’s Shadow was dead and that Infect would be okay.
Here we are much later and Death’s Shadow had already starting to evolve into a midrange deck and the Zoo-style version still puts up results now and again. Infect on the other hand? Well, Infect has done zilch since then. (Of course, the printing of Fatal Push also helped sway some of that as well).
I also remember people clamoring about how great the Thopter-Sword combo was going to be, and how it was going to reshape control when Sword of the Meek entered Modern play. These days, people don’t even mess with that card outside of fringe brews because there are better, less fragile win-cons.
Remember Ancestral Visions and how it would make Jund unplayable? Not so much. A combination of Death's Shadow being the seemingly better midrange deck and Eldrazi hanging out in the format pushed Jund out.
People (myself included) generally use their own biases to overestimate and underestimate the impact that adding or removing a card from the cardpool will produce. WotC has a track record of being quite conservative with unbans. If we get unbans, I’d probably bet that it’s not going to make a huge impact on the format.
So trying to figure how an unban chain could break out, i'm going to present a couple of questions.
Even though all cards in the banlist inspire some fear in me(especially after Valakut and Golgari Grave Troll) i think the consensus right now is that Bloodbraid Elf is safe for unban, and i'm going to take that train.
Could a BBE unban alone be the key to unban all the fair Midrange cards in the banlist? Especially Jace, which seems to be dangerous IF it's unbanned alone as
it could make Blue midrange the only midrange(Jace definitely doesn't help against most of the blazing-fast Modern environment). BBE first could be a test of how things fare up with a 4 CMC card that prove to be very powerful in a slower and older format, but was never really that dominant by itself.
After BBE, if it turns to be true that it is indeed safe, Jace seems natural to unban too as BBE+Jace could be a good balance between Midrange archetypes in Modern, assuming BBE is actually GOOD against JTMS.
After those two unbans, SFM could enter the talk. Actually, i think SFM is the best of all 3 cards(in a Modern environment) because of how powerfuf it could be against the agressive decks like Affinity and Burn. In my theory, if BBE and Jace are fine, the chances of SFM being super broken are slim. There's also the fact that BBE and SFM particularly become better as more cards enter the game. Is BBE into SFM too good???
I didn't go into full detail about how those cards could warp the metagame in a bad way or a good way. Just wanted to present those as food for thought.
Basically the premise revolves around: Taking the first danger step, unban 1)Bloodbraid Elf then 2)JTMS then 3)SFM. And this should be the order for danger of entering the format too.
I want to conclude this by saying that after yesterday's explanation about Modern, i'm very confident that they will unban Bloodbraid Elf after the PT. If BBE doesn't met their criteria and proves too powerful in testing, then banlist is locked for the foreseeable future.
So trying to figure how an unban chain could break out, i'm going to present a couple of questions.
Even though all cards in the banlist inspire some fear in me(especially after Valakut and Golgari Grave Troll) i think the consensus right now is that Bloodbraid Elf is safe for unban, and i'm going to take that train.
Could a BBE unban alone be the key to unban all the fair Midrange cards in the banlist? Especially Jace, which seems to be dangerous IF it's unbanned alone as
it could make Blue midrange the only midrange(Jace definitely doesn't help against most of the blazing-fast Modern environment). BBE first could be a test of how things fare up with a 4 CMC card that prove to be very powerful in a slower and older format, but was never really that dominant by itself.
After BBE, if it turns to be true that it is indeed safe, Jace seems natural to unban too as BBE+Jace could be a good balance between Midrange archetypes in Modern, assuming BBE is actually GOOD against JTMS.
After those two unbans, SFM could enter the talk. Actually, i think SFM is the best of all 3 cards(in a Modern environment) because of how powerfuf it could be against the agressive decks like Affinity and Burn. In my theory, if BBE and Jace are fine, the chances of SFM being super broken are slim. There's also the fact that BBE and SFM particularly become better as more cards enter the game. Is BBE into SFM too good???
I didn't go into full detail about how those cards could warp the metagame in a bad way or a good way. Just wanted to present those as food for thought.
Basically the premise revolves around: Taking the first danger step, unban 1)Bloodbraid Elf then 2)JTMS then 3)SFM. And this should be the order for danger of entering the format too.
I want to conclude this by saying that after yesterday's explanation about Modern, i'm very confident that they will unban Bloodbraid Elf after the PT. If BBE doesn't met their criteria and proves too powerful in testing, then banlist is locked for the foreseeable future.
I'd want a better definition of "fair midrange cards." Just because a card slots into jund does not mean it is a fair card.
I genuinely can't think of a single unfair card in jund except maybe for LOTV, who's the second best planeswalker ever printed. Even then, she's incredibly soft to creature heavy/aggro decks
I genuinely can't think of a single unfair card in jund except maybe for LOTV, who's the second best planeswalker ever printed. Even then, she's incredibly soft to creature heavy/aggro decks
If we are talking about potential unbans, then WOTC should unban Punishing Fire, Deathrite Shaman, and BBE to all help Jund if all Jund cards are fair.
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Glad you're at least willing to acknowledge that this is solely your opinion, although the conspiracy theory of WOTC trying to sabotage modern could use some evidence besides "there is going to be a modern PT and I don't like modern."
Exactly. "Sabotage" is probably too strong of a word, but the thin lines between laziness, incompetence, and negligence become more and more blurred when there's almost no downside to inaction or letting things fail before coming in like a hero and "fixing" it after the fact. It's a risk/reward philosophy, and doing nothing right now is very low risk.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Coco can be used to gain infinite life, deal infinite damage, make the opponent lose a bunch of life to win the game, hit 2 removal spells with a big game hunter and a reclamation mage, etc.
JundBGR
RW Blood MoonRW
Pauper
Delver U
Elves G
Control B
Commander
Edgar Markov BRW
Captain Sisay GW
Niv-Mizzet, Parun UR
Tymna and Ravos WB
But whatever is the case it doesn’t belong on the banned list.
Modern
WUBRG
As far as I can tell, that's the only argument people have for it being banned. Or at least it's what people try to bring up whenever I suggest the card should be unbanned.
I don't think BBE belongs on the banlist either, but I'm surprised no one has tried to make the argument that it could elevate Living End. There's also the possibility that it could bust something coming up in Rivals, but barring that I really don't see why it needs to remain banned.
So you would cut like Simian Spirit Guides, Fulminator Mages and possible Faerie Macabres and Beast Withins + all converted manacost of three sideboard cards for playing Elf?
Modern
WUBRG
uh, because it wouldn't 0_0
My real hang-up with text driven conversation is that inflection and tone have to be spelled out, otherwise there's a good chance this happens. Granted I didn't do a great job of it, being at work and doing this via mobile aka I was in a hurry; my intent was to further build upon a previous post saying that people had freaked out over the possibility of BBE into Liliana. The chances of that are remote, and I thought I'd be hyperbolic and funny by suggesting that BBE could help Living End, which as some have pointed out, is absurd. I have successfully failed at presenting this point and have instead led other posters to believe I am simple and soft-headed, for which I apologise profusely.
fair play my friend. I too suffer at the hands of trying to access MTGS on a mobile, and all the nonsense that ensues.
Thanks for understanding. Back to talking about MTG, it'll be interesting to see how the PT goes next year. Is the sky falling, or is Modern in a decent place? Kind of weird to put all of that on a PT, but that seems to be the situation. One thing I think we can all agree on is that the top decks, while diverse among themselves, aren't what we want among the best decks.
I don't really have a problem with any one of the top decks except Titanshift, and that's just my personal bias, but having all of them be the best of their respective archetypes is problematic.
Why is it problematic? Why is it worse that, for instance, Grixis Shadow is the best three color midrange deck instead of a traditional jund?
You raise an interesting point by talking about the top decks in this way:
Neither titanshift or eldrazi tron has placed well at a large tournament in a long time. This recent scg Charlotte event showed E-tron having one of the worst conversion rates I think I've seen, with a large number of total players on the deck, 15 making day two and then only one just barely scraping into the top 32. Titanshift is hardly any better (in fact to be brutally honest it's worse)
Both decks are suffering from "everyone says this deck is good but results aren't backing up this assertion", which is sort of weird!
We know that both decks have had a relatively recent spike in popularity, but this really isn't translating into actual results. Obviously there's a lot of factors playing into this. There's no one solution to the puzzle.
But the fact remains there's a lot of vocal individuals making themselves heard on streams, comments-sections and on forums to the effect that these two decks (specifically these decks) are like the death of modern or something, and the sky is falling and for some reason they need to be banned or it's all doom & gloom, and they are going to quit modern.
It's a specific kind of person that will persistently hang around these places online and just hammer a negative opinion over and over, rather than taking their leave or looking for positive alternatives. I don't think it's particularly helpful as a narrative (partly because it's so visible, these people take efforts to be seen) and I'm confused by the disconnect between actual results, modern metagame analysis, anecdotal local results and the persistent whining coming from this vocal minority.
Maybe there's something I'm missing, but I haven't seen any actual evidence that modern is in any kind of doldrums or bad way. Seems fine, like genuinely fine. You can pretty much play what you want, there's decent sideboard options in basically every colour, splashing for additional colours in your deck is easier than ever and no single deck is in a dominating format-warping position. Moreover, just like always, the metagame pendulum is constantly swinging and before long we'll see that familiar flux happening with decks rising and falling on the rankings. Everyone's so keen to take a snapshot of modern and cry foul, without acknowledging the changing nature that's always been part of the format.
Anyway that's not a dig at you personally, it just addresses a point echoed by your comment. I was addressing the community at-large not picking on you. Hope that's clear
I think BBE is a safe unban, but I’ve always found the argument that BBE can whiff inadequate because the situations in which BBE general whiffs are in situations where you’re already ahead (generally).
Hitting a Terminate on an empty board sounds like you’ve successfully kept the board clean so that BBE can get in for some clean damage.
Hitting a Thoughtseize when the opponent has no cards probably means you’ve already ripped apart their hand as it is. Having your opponent hellbent is exactly what a deck like Jund wants.
Let’s not pretend that Bloodbraid Elf is some kind of weak draft chaff card that’s been sidelined for no reason. It’s true that CoCo can lead to some pretty big swings, but it can also whiff. A deck that uses Bloodbraid Elf will be designed to get the best use out of the cascade trigger, just like a deck running CoCo will be designed to most often hit business.
BBE is about on par with CoCo. It has a bit more variance, but it can do stuff that’s equally as busted as CoCo. Should it still be on the banlist? Probably not. Is it some kind of innocent martyr that’s junk? No.
Yep, that's the point people forget.
BBE can also hit bolt (always relevant), kolaghan's command (2 or 3 for 1, counting the elf); add to that that BBE inclusion in a deck will shape the deck content to optimize it. Finally, people constantly overlook that cascade is a cast trigger, so unlike CoCo, you are guaranteed the extra spell, unlike CoCo where a counter negates everything.
Not to discount the presence of those inclined to whine regardless, but I think there's an easy answer to the bolded part. With the available data sources, "modern metagame analysis" is fairly worthless. Once we no longer had the old 5-0 list format, we're left with a mix of subpar sources -- poorly attended Modern Challenges especially prone to rogue decks, SCG events that are few and far between, and 5-0s that are intentionally curated to make the format look diverse.
In the absence of objective data, people rely more on anecdotal evidence. There's no easy way to rebuff complaints just as there's no easy way to support them. So narratives (composed of one's particular experiences or the opinion of a popular player) become the currency of arguments. Obviously data can't capture everything (such as subjective factors like fun), but the quality of discussion, analysis, etc. all suffers when WoTC decides to be even less transparent about the available data.
This is pretty true. When they announced the Gitaxian Probe ban, people claimed Death’s Shadow was dead and that Infect would be okay.
Here we are much later and Death’s Shadow had already starting to evolve into a midrange deck and the Zoo-style version still puts up results now and again. Infect on the other hand? Well, Infect has done zilch since then. (Of course, the printing of Fatal Push also helped sway some of that as well).
I also remember people clamoring about how great the Thopter-Sword combo was going to be, and how it was going to reshape control when Sword of the Meek entered Modern play. These days, people don’t even mess with that card outside of fringe brews because there are better, less fragile win-cons.
Remember Ancestral Visions and how it would make Jund unplayable? Not so much. A combination of Death's Shadow being the seemingly better midrange deck and Eldrazi hanging out in the format pushed Jund out.
People (myself included) generally use their own biases to overestimate and underestimate the impact that adding or removing a card from the cardpool will produce. WotC has a track record of being quite conservative with unbans. If we get unbans, I’d probably bet that it’s not going to make a huge impact on the format.
Even though all cards in the banlist inspire some fear in me(especially after Valakut and Golgari Grave Troll) i think the consensus right now is that Bloodbraid Elf is safe for unban, and i'm going to take that train.
Could a BBE unban alone be the key to unban all the fair Midrange cards in the banlist? Especially Jace, which seems to be dangerous IF it's unbanned alone as
it could make Blue midrange the only midrange(Jace definitely doesn't help against most of the blazing-fast Modern environment). BBE first could be a test of how things fare up with a 4 CMC card that prove to be very powerful in a slower and older format, but was never really that dominant by itself.
After BBE, if it turns to be true that it is indeed safe, Jace seems natural to unban too as BBE+Jace could be a good balance between Midrange archetypes in Modern, assuming BBE is actually GOOD against JTMS.
After those two unbans, SFM could enter the talk. Actually, i think SFM is the best of all 3 cards(in a Modern environment) because of how powerfuf it could be against the agressive decks like Affinity and Burn. In my theory, if BBE and Jace are fine, the chances of SFM being super broken are slim. There's also the fact that BBE and SFM particularly become better as more cards enter the game. Is BBE into SFM too good???
I didn't go into full detail about how those cards could warp the metagame in a bad way or a good way. Just wanted to present those as food for thought.
Basically the premise revolves around: Taking the first danger step, unban 1)Bloodbraid Elf then 2)JTMS then 3)SFM. And this should be the order for danger of entering the format too.
I want to conclude this by saying that after yesterday's explanation about Modern, i'm very confident that they will unban Bloodbraid Elf after the PT. If BBE doesn't met their criteria and proves too powerful in testing, then banlist is locked for the foreseeable future.
I'd want a better definition of "fair midrange cards." Just because a card slots into jund does not mean it is a fair card.
If we are talking about potential unbans, then WOTC should unban Punishing Fire, Deathrite Shaman, and BBE to all help Jund if all Jund cards are fair.