I'm not surprised per se, but I think it's weird that everyone is still complaining about the twin ban over a year later. I know the numbers, and I have read the articles. I know that as for what decks are getting played at a high level or seeing top meta %'s looks the same. But I think it is relevant to consider that there may be an average of 19 tier 1/2 decks but that tiering is based on meta % not whether a deck is viable to be played. I personally think there are more viable decks that can see play. In my personal opinion, Twin stopped a lot of decks from being viable. Just because a given deck isn't seeing a lot of play, doesn't mean it isn't viable. Twin not existing means there are a lot of very viable decks that are good enough to win a weekly event or Day 2 or maybe even Top 8 a GP. Just because they don't see enough play to have a meta % that makes them Tier 1-2 doesn't mean they aren't on the same power level as a Tier 1-2 deck.
What do people think about Cryptic Serpent this looks like a card that might be modern playable in U decks kinda like a on color Angler. 5 instants or sorcery's isn't that many this could be a 6/5 for 2-3cc very easily very early.
Very similar to bedlam reveller which sees next to zero play so I am skeptical, but it has real potential
Reveller doesn't see play because of his ETB ability and fact that because of its ability it is terrible if you ever draw 2.
Cryptic Serpent looks much closer to playable as its just a fatty that doesn't have any potential draw back. Also its body sizes up well against Tas, Gofy, and Angler giving having a creature that can naturally block and potentially trade with many of the big 4/5 5/5 5/6's in the format.
Not saying it will see play just seems like a card built with Modern in mind as its restriction is much of one in this format.
But why the hell shouldn't I count Dredge? Or infect?
DSx isn't becoming the can't beat it join it deck yet, that was Eldrazi.
There are certainly new flavors of Shadow, but Delver is used in a ton of legacy decks, does that mean it's a can't beat it play it creature card?
And Jund was not the No.1 deck, it wasn't even doing that great in major tournaments, it's a reliable, safe deck that usually draws the wrong half of its deck in a long tournament.
What aggro decks do we even have now? Merfolk, a mediocre revolt Zoo deck, an Affinity deck that is getting worse and worse as the format evolves, fatal push is just another amazing card that beats the deck down. Affinity hasn't been good since the Summer of Grixis Control. Burn is still chugging along. Take a look on mtggoldfish, aggro is looking poor, the bans really hurt the archetype.
If control can prey on shadow thats fine, they preyed on Twin decks.
Honestly, I'm really curious what Twin looks like if its unbanned in this meta, giving UW Control two tier 1 decks to prey on would be nuts.
I really like Cryptic Serpent. Might be what allows me to build UR Delver type deck without needing to splash black for Delve creatures.
In fact, the deck might not even want to play delver at all and instead use the new Drake. I would also play Censor as a 4-of in this list to help fill the gy with instants/sorceries. With Thought Scour, Faithless Looting, and some cheap counters like Spell Pierce this can be the start of a sweet UR tempo list
I really like Cryptic Serpent. Might be what allows me to build UR Delver type deck without needing to splash black for Delve creatures.
In fact, the deck might not even want to play delver at all and instead use the new Drake. I would also play Censor as a 4-of in this list to help fill the gy with instants/sorceries. With Thought Scour, Faithless Looting, and some cheap counters like Spell Pierce this can be the start of a sweet UR tempo list
But it'll never be a "true blue deck" according to a bunch of people here. Which means you shouldnt even bother building it. Actually, just stop thinking about it altogether. You're wrong.
But why the hell shouldn't I count Dredge? Or infect?
DSx isn't becoming the can't beat it join it deck yet, that was Eldrazi.
There are certainly new flavors of Shadow, but Delver is used in a ton of legacy decks, does that mean it's a can't beat it play it creature card?
And Jund was not the No.1 deck, it wasn't even doing that great in major tournaments, it's a reliable, safe deck that usually draws the wrong half of its deck in a long tournament.
What aggro decks do we even have now? Merfolk, a mediocre revolt Zoo deck, an Affinity deck that is getting worse and worse as the format evolves, fatal push is just another amazing card that beats the deck down. Affinity hasn't been good since the Summer of Grixis Control. Burn is still chugging along. Take a look on mtggoldfish, aggro is looking poor, the bans really hurt the archetype.
If control can prey on shadow thats fine, they preyed on Twin decks.
Honestly, I'm really curious what Twin looks like if its unbanned in this meta, giving UW Control two tier 1 decks to prey on would be nuts.
Didn't say don't count Infect did I. I say that you cannot count those decks two decks colorless eldrazi and Dredge because like I said, even if Twin was good against them they where still so good against everything else that they would have seen play in large format warping numbers and if anything only shows how broken the Twin combo really is, it is so broken it could have survived Eldrazi Winter or the Summer of Dredge...
Shadow decks are about 12% of the meta-game currently so the trend seems to be towards the can't beat it join it side. Yes for fair creature decks in legacy it is pretty much a can't beat them join them situation with Delver its actually kind of funny your pointing towards legacy because that is and has been a format dominated by delver decks as the fall back best creature based deck. I specifically said that is the situation for fair decks and unless Dredge or Eldrazitron are suddenly "fair" decks to everyone then yes DSx decks are presenting a apparently unavoidable situation for other fair aggro decks.
I really like Cryptic Serpent. Might be what allows me to build UR Delver type deck without needing to splash black for Delve creatures.
In fact, the deck might not even want to play delver at all and instead use the new Drake. I would also play Censor as a 4-of in this list to help fill the gy with instants/sorceries. With Thought Scour, Faithless Looting, and some cheap counters like Spell Pierce this can be the start of a sweet UR tempo list
But it'll never be a "true blue deck" according to a bunch of people here. Which means you shouldnt even bother building it. Actually, just stop thinking about it altogether. You're wrong.
This is borderline trolling, either towards the poster you are replying to or others in the thread you are making a jab at. Avoid these kinds of posts.
Re: Cryptic Serpent
It's definitely an interesting card, but I'm worried about average cost. Thought Scour plus removal/countermagic will typically get you 3 instants/sorceries in the graveyard by T3. Maybe 4 if you add in a T3 Sleight/SV. Unfortunately, this optimistic scenario still only reduces Serpent's cost to 1UU when you only have two mana available on T3, meaning Serpent will probably see T4 play on average. That's not awful but it's not great; most decks would rather play Tasigur or Angler in that slot.
I guess Serpent's advantage (and Enigma Drake's advantage) is not requiring black. This means UR and Jeskai can get big beatsticks on the cheap, but I also don't know if it helps those decks too much. I'd love to see more UR Tempo or Jeskai presence in the format and it would absolutely qualify as controlling/reactive blue, but again, I'm not sure if these cards get there.
I think that we should start moving away from the word "fair" in these discussions. IMO legacy is the most balanced format archetype wise - regardless of what kind of deck you like to play, you'll find something good in legacy that will let you play that strategy. This certainly hasn't been true in modern or standard in quite a while. The most "fair" cards played in legacy are some of the most broken cards in the history of magic. So it's pretty clear to me that fairness does not translate to format health.
Besides this, the term is hopelessly subjective. For example, I believe thoughtseize is a fair magic card. Varyag clearly does not. I don't think that one of us could possibly convince the other on this point. And quite frankly, if it is an unfair card, I don't care. Does the card promote a diversity of strategies in Tier 2+ decks? If it does, I want it in modern. I feel the same way about the tronlands, through the breach, and mox opal. Maybe some of them violate that qualification, but IMO that is the standard against which these borderline cards should be evaluated. Unlike how "fair" something might be, or how much you personally tilt playing against it (there's a tenth circle of hell set aside for Eidolon of the Great Revel), this metric directly leads to more players being able to enjoy the game and, through theory crafting, can be discussed in more objective terms.
Cryptic Serpent is more there to grind, anyways, which means by the time it hits the BF, you should have done quite a bit of back-and-froth with your opponent. And if you play a spell heavy deck, then it shouldnt be too hard to get sufficient I/S in the GY.
Also, I wasn't trolling. Its simply the mindset shared on the dozens of pages in this thread. That, and black discard can never be over-powered but blue permission can.
The fact that you can't play Cryptic Serpent on turn 2 really hurts his viability. That's why Goyf is so good, you can play him on turn 2 and be swinging with 4-6 power on turn 3. I don't think he's unplayable though.
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
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The fact that you can't play Cryptic Serpent on turn 2 really hurts his viability. That's why Goyf is so good, you can play him on turn 2 and be swinging with 4-6 power on turn 3. I don't think he's unplayable though.
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
Lets wait and see with Hour of Devastation, where they supposedly start to really "correct" things.
Admittedly, wizards has gone on record more in the past few months about the whole answers v threats thing, and how that will start to change in the future, and specifically that hour is the first set this can really apply to.
Will much actually change?
I doubt it. Definitely don't hold your breath, but waiting and seeing for the next set is definitely more reasonable than it has been in the past.
The fact that you can't play Cryptic Serpent on turn 2 really hurts his viability. That's why Goyf is so good, you can play him on turn 2 and be swinging with 4-6 power on turn 3. I don't think he's unplayable though.
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
Lets wait and see with Hour of Devastation, where they supposedly start to really "correct" things.
I don't envision better counters or draw spells or cantrips coming back as part of making U great again. Cards like Cryptic Serpent are actually what I expect, aggressively costed threats that are far better in older formats that have better cantrips and counterspells. They have already produced 3 2c.c. counters and none of them seem modern playable. maybe we will get a unsummon with a reflector mage type of affect attached.
I think part of the problem with having expectations for a "better" counterspell or card draw, etc... is that those affects perform well enough in standard to not warrant a boost. It is also very difficult to balance out power of such a pushed card with intents for play in Modern, look at the last pushed draw spells printed Treasure Cruise and DDT "broke" the format by making BGx decks generally bad. I think the days of good permission, draw spells, and cantrips are firmly in the past which to me signals that the design space left for WotC to print pushed modern playable U cards is in Creature types, answers(not permission but answers very different things) and enchantments. As foretold is a example of a "pushed" enchantment that could potentially be busted at some time in the future. Or TiTi as a example of a powerful creature etc....These might not be the things that we want as blue mages but I think they will be the things we will get.
16-10 vs Burn
22-7 vs Eldrazi Tron
10-4 vs Tron
10-1 (!!) vs Abzan Coco
14-6 vs GW goodstuff
Which is about the same I saw and read from Ghash77 back when he was grinding. Todd Stevens has told me Eldrazi Tron and GW value get crushed.
All in all whoever is or sees DS players getting beat by those decks or not crushing most of them, those DS players need to learn to play the deck, urgently.
To be fair, Magnus Lantto is a really good player. The fact that he's got a 75% win rate in the mirror shows that his numbers are systematically skewed by being better than his opponents on mtgo, on average. The real matchup numbers for an average player against another average player probably aren't as appalling.
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Why 10%? Wouldn't you use his mirror % as the benchmark for "even" matchups? So anything under 75% are at a deficit, and anything above is at an advantage? So only 5/20 (25%) are advantaged matchups? Seems fine to me.
That 75% in the mirror really calls the dataset into question, and the only way I see to salvage it is to set the mirror as the benchmark for even matchups.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
The fact that you can't play Cryptic Serpent on turn 2 really hurts his viability. That's why Goyf is so good, you can play him on turn 2 and be swinging with 4-6 power on turn 3. I don't think he's unplayable though.
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
Lets wait and see with Hour of Devastation, where they supposedly start to really "correct" things.
I don't envision better counters or draw spells or cantrips coming back as part of making U great again. Cards like Cryptic Serpent are actually what I expect, aggressively costed threats that are far better in older formats that have better cantrips and counterspells. They have already produced 3 2c.c. counters and none of them seem modern playable. maybe we will get a unsummon with a reflector mage type of affect attached.
I think part of the problem with having expectations for a "better" counterspell or card draw, etc... is that those affects perform well enough in standard to not warrant a boost. It is also very difficult to balance out power of such a pushed card with intents for play in Modern, look at the last pushed draw spells printed Treasure Cruise and DDT "broke" the format by making BGx decks generally bad. I think the days of good permission, draw spells, and cantrips are firmly in the past which to me signals that the design space left for WotC to print pushed modern playable U cards is in Creature types, answers(not permission but answers very different things) and enchantments. As foretold is a example of a "pushed" enchantment that could potentially be busted at some time in the future. Or TiTi as a example of a powerful creature etc....These might not be the things that we want as blue mages but I think they will be the things we will get.
This is certainly sad.
I disagree with this (specially the part in bold). There is ample design space for U permission spells that is not broken. The problem is that WOTC does not want to print them because it is "unfun" for "new players" accrding to their "market research". Thats why their good permission (as in Universal & Hard) is "cancel w/ upside". But if they moved to a "counterpsell with downside" template, this would help U alot without being oppresive. Example: "Reversed Dissolve: UU counter target spell, that spell's controler may scry 1" (or scry 2, or scry some number. There is a number that makes this spell balanced. Or "exhausting denial: UU Counter target spell, then it's controller chooses a land you control. That land does not untap during your next untap phase". Or "looting denial: UU counter target spell, that spell's controller may loot". Basically, you can pick a positive effect X worth 1/2 a mana to 1 mana and template your counterspells as "UU: counter target spell, the spell's controller gets effect X." This would be modern playable and not oppresive.
The reason none of the 2 c.c. counters see play is that (a) they are soft counters (a-la mana leak) that loose value when the games go long (and games going long is precisely what control wants, so these spells just hamstring you) or (b) they cost you too much tempo (like deprive, that sets you back 1 land permanently. That effect is worth way more than 1 mana; i.e. the downside is way too "down"). Except for deprive, there are no 2 mana hard counters that are also universal, and this is what modern needs in its counterspells. A 1/2 to 1 mana downside is a cost most control players would gladly pay.
What would really be the point of blue that's good through creatures? Must every color get its own Goyf a la Tasigur and Cryptic Serpent and then we all play the same mirror match with palette swapped cards?
When the game focuses on creature combat as the most important interaction probably yes.
I actually think Aristocrats is a great deck in this meta. It just seems to be able to go wide and grind down the Tier 1 decks. Too bad damage can't be directed toward creatures
The fact that you can't play Cryptic Serpent on turn 2 really hurts his viability. That's why Goyf is so good, you can play him on turn 2 and be swinging with 4-6 power on turn 3. I don't think he's unplayable though.
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
Lets wait and see with Hour of Devastation, where they supposedly start to really "correct" things.
I don't envision better counters or draw spells or cantrips coming back as part of making U great again. Cards like Cryptic Serpent are actually what I expect, aggressively costed threats that are far better in older formats that have better cantrips and counterspells. They have already produced 3 2c.c. counters and none of them seem modern playable. maybe we will get a unsummon with a reflector mage type of affect attached.
I think part of the problem with having expectations for a "better" counterspell or card draw, etc... is that those affects perform well enough in standard to not warrant a boost. It is also very difficult to balance out power of such a pushed card with intents for play in Modern, look at the last pushed draw spells printed Treasure Cruise and DDT "broke" the format by making BGx decks generally bad. I think the days of good permission, draw spells, and cantrips are firmly in the past which to me signals that the design space left for WotC to print pushed modern playable U cards is in Creature types, answers(not permission but answers very different things) and enchantments. As foretold is a example of a "pushed" enchantment that could potentially be busted at some time in the future. Or TiTi as a example of a powerful creature etc....These might not be the things that we want as blue mages but I think they will be the things we will get.
This is certainly sad.
I disagree with this (specially the part in bold). There is ample design space for U permission spells that is not broken. The problem is that WOTC does not want to print them because it is "unfun" for "new players" accrding to their "market research". Thats why their good permission (as in Universal & Hard) is "cancel w/ upside". But if they moved to a "counterpsell with downside" template, this would help U alot without being oppresive. Example: "Reversed Dissolve: UU counter target spell, that spell's controler may scry 1" (or scry 2, or scry some number. There is a number that makes this spell balanced. Or "exhausting denial: UU Counter target spell, then it's controller chooses a land you control. That land does not untap during your next untap phase". Or "looting denial: UU counter target spell, that spell's controller may loot". Basically, you can pick a positive effect X worth 1/2 a mana to 1 mana and template your counterspells as "UU: counter target spell, the spell's controller gets effect X." This would be modern playable and not oppresive.
The reason none of the 2 c.c. counters see play is that (a) they are soft counters (a-la mana leak) that loose value when the games go long (and games going long is precisely what control wants, so these spells just hamstring you) or (b) they cost you too much tempo (like deprive, that sets you back 1 land permanently. That effect is worth way more than 1 mana; i.e. the downside is way too "down"). Except for deprive, there are no 2 mana hard counters that are also universal, and this is what modern needs in its counterspells. A 1/2 to 1 mana downside is a cost most control players would gladly pay.
First off WotC prefers to print counterpells that tie into set mechanics Silumgar's Scorn was functionally counterspell in standard but is pretty much garbage in Modern. Even Deprive and its disqualifying draw back for modern was functionally counterspell in Standard as getting to ensure landfall triggers actually made it pretty great. Counterspell is now Cancel this is just the reality of modern card design and among other reasons Magic as a game has expanded its player base much broader since abandoning true hard counters for 2 and I don't think WotC will risk that to make a handful of people happy. Not a single one of the ideas you floated sound like anything WotC would print since 07' not saying I don't wish they would just that this is not in the Modern design philosophy.
As long as Mid-Range combat oriented game play is the focus of MTG hard cheap non-conditional counters will be out of the game. Not a single one of the draw backs you listed above will come close to bringing parity on say 2 mana spell for a 4-6 mana spell unless your opponent is jumping through hoops to gain the power of the 2c.c. hard counter. Getting set back a land drop doesn't seem like a bad deal if you countering a Siege Rhino or something but losing your Siege Rhino and getting to scry or loot? that Is yes something I could live with because I obviously came out way ahead.
2 mana hard counters are powerful and I would love for counterspellx to be in Modern as it would make every deck I play better. I simply do not see such a card coming into Standard and that is the crux of it right. The problem is that in standard crap like Essence Scatter is good enough to do the job and WotC knows this. Counterspell is a card WotC has compared to Dark Ritual and Sword to Plowshares it is not a power they introduce lightly and they know that a UU hard counter that has a "downside" that is no big whoop to the control player anyways has a risk of dominating standard in way that makes them very nervous.
They will keep making UU "counter target spell if you leap through this hoop" variants but they will continue to be tied to set mechanics and unless the sets mechanics line up well with some very common feature of Modern the hoop will probably be some hyper restrictive block focused element.
I would imagine if WotC printed say "Reversed Dissolve" UU counter target spell its controller may draw a card and untap up to two lands. Something like that I could imagine WotC printing get to counter say your 5 drop but you get to untap and draw and potentially play a follow up.
believe me I hope that I am wrong, I would be so happy if next set comes out and some laughable draw back was strapped to a real hard counter.
I've been thinking more about Forsythe's tweet about addressing the problems with blue in Modern in the next B&R announcement. What could they really do outside of unbanning a couple of blue cards?
Would anyone be upset if they did something unexpected like:
so and so is now banned.
so and so is now unbanned.
Counterspell is now added to the format.
I mean, it's their rule that they can only add cards through Standard. With New World Order changing the design paradigm to be so "new player friendly" and that ideology conflicting with Modern, they could certainly justify changing that limitation.
The sample is small across the board, but we can be certain that 25% is not his edge vs the average player, that's straight impossible. Meaning, he had to be just lucky in that one. And obviously, he could have been lucky in others just as well.
Yeah, it's certainly a small sample size, but a player of Magnus' caliber would be somewhere in the 60s against the field with any high tier deck. And doing the math on the numbers he posted, he's at 67%. That seems a little high, but not unreasonably so considering his skill and the known power of the deck. Now, if the average player was able to achieve a 67% winrate with the deck, it would be a problem. In MTGGoldfish's Modern analytics from mid-2015, the highest performing decks were Bant Company and Suicide Zoo, both at around 57%. The real question here is how much better than the average player we think Magnus might be. Going by the MOCS data you mentioned, the top players are generally 10-19% better than an average player. Magnus said his win rate with this deck was rivaled by the old DS deck, so I think it's fair to say that DS Jund is likely around 57% or a couple points below that (just to put it in perspective, UR Twin was at a 53% rate), putting it as one of the best decks in Modern, but not really as an outlier.
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I've been thinking more about Forsythe's tweet about addressing the problems with blue in Modern in the next B&R announcement. What could they really do outside of unbanning a couple of blue cards?
Would anyone be upset if they did something unexpected like:
so and so is now banned.
so and so is now unbanned.
Counterspell is now added to the format.
I mean, it's their rule that they can only add cards through Standard. With New World Order changing the design paradigm to be so "new player friendly" and that ideology conflicting with Modern, they could certainly justify changing that limitation.
Their ideal is becoming more and more invalid. Modern is quite deep now with 14 years of sets.
Buying into the format is a commitment, it's not an afterlife for rotating standard cards the way extended was.
Players accept that. I can't think of any player that would disapprove the addition of new blood by means outside of standard.
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GP Singapore Coverage:What did you have for breakfast this morning?
Also 67%, I must admit, is not too high, no. For a deck like this and a player like him, it's not. I know people rocking those winrates with lesser decks. Some of them are ultra-experts with the specific deck but they are not pros.
Yeah, and Magnus was a long time Suicide Zoo player, so he's more experienced with the style of play than most players are.
In other news: Dredge is back to 7%. My friend still plays the deck, and while it's a tiny bit less consistent and no longer has access to the plan of casting huge Grave Trolls, it was quickly apparent to us both that the deck was barely dented by the ban. Dredge is still a very good deck.
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Look. I have 62-65% winrate with my Saheeli Evolution brew in over 210 matches. This includes early iterations that sre bad. "Average" player on MTGO doesnt have 50% winrate but higher.
His winrates against against tier 1 decks is much higher than 70%.
By very definition, the average player on MTGO has a 50% win rate. If your win rate is higher than that, either you're an above average player, or you're playing an above average deck.
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Modern
Reveller doesn't see play because of his ETB ability and fact that because of its ability it is terrible if you ever draw 2.
Cryptic Serpent looks much closer to playable as its just a fatty that doesn't have any potential draw back. Also its body sizes up well against Tas, Gofy, and Angler giving having a creature that can naturally block and potentially trade with many of the big 4/5 5/5 5/6's in the format.
Not saying it will see play just seems like a card built with Modern in mind as its restriction is much of one in this format.
But why the hell shouldn't I count Dredge? Or infect?
DSx isn't becoming the can't beat it join it deck yet, that was Eldrazi.
There are certainly new flavors of Shadow, but Delver is used in a ton of legacy decks, does that mean it's a can't beat it play it creature card?
And Jund was not the No.1 deck, it wasn't even doing that great in major tournaments, it's a reliable, safe deck that usually draws the wrong half of its deck in a long tournament.
What aggro decks do we even have now? Merfolk, a mediocre revolt Zoo deck, an Affinity deck that is getting worse and worse as the format evolves, fatal push is just another amazing card that beats the deck down. Affinity hasn't been good since the Summer of Grixis Control. Burn is still chugging along. Take a look on mtggoldfish, aggro is looking poor, the bans really hurt the archetype.
If control can prey on shadow thats fine, they preyed on Twin decks.
Honestly, I'm really curious what Twin looks like if its unbanned in this meta, giving UW Control two tier 1 decks to prey on would be nuts.
In fact, the deck might not even want to play delver at all and instead use the new Drake. I would also play Censor as a 4-of in this list to help fill the gy with instants/sorceries. With Thought Scour, Faithless Looting, and some cheap counters like Spell Pierce this can be the start of a sweet UR tempo list
But it'll never be a "true blue deck" according to a bunch of people here. Which means you shouldnt even bother building it. Actually, just stop thinking about it altogether. You're wrong.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
Didn't say don't count Infect did I. I say that you cannot count those decks two decks colorless eldrazi and Dredge because like I said, even if Twin was good against them they where still so good against everything else that they would have seen play in large format warping numbers and if anything only shows how broken the Twin combo really is, it is so broken it could have survived Eldrazi Winter or the Summer of Dredge...
Shadow decks are about 12% of the meta-game currently so the trend seems to be towards the can't beat it join it side. Yes for fair creature decks in legacy it is pretty much a can't beat them join them situation with Delver its actually kind of funny your pointing towards legacy because that is and has been a format dominated by delver decks as the fall back best creature based deck. I specifically said that is the situation for fair decks and unless Dredge or Eldrazitron are suddenly "fair" decks to everyone then yes DSx decks are presenting a apparently unavoidable situation for other fair aggro decks.
This is borderline trolling, either towards the poster you are replying to or others in the thread you are making a jab at. Avoid these kinds of posts.
Re: Cryptic Serpent
It's definitely an interesting card, but I'm worried about average cost. Thought Scour plus removal/countermagic will typically get you 3 instants/sorceries in the graveyard by T3. Maybe 4 if you add in a T3 Sleight/SV. Unfortunately, this optimistic scenario still only reduces Serpent's cost to 1UU when you only have two mana available on T3, meaning Serpent will probably see T4 play on average. That's not awful but it's not great; most decks would rather play Tasigur or Angler in that slot.
I guess Serpent's advantage (and Enigma Drake's advantage) is not requiring black. This means UR and Jeskai can get big beatsticks on the cheap, but I also don't know if it helps those decks too much. I'd love to see more UR Tempo or Jeskai presence in the format and it would absolutely qualify as controlling/reactive blue, but again, I'm not sure if these cards get there.
Besides this, the term is hopelessly subjective. For example, I believe thoughtseize is a fair magic card. Varyag clearly does not. I don't think that one of us could possibly convince the other on this point. And quite frankly, if it is an unfair card, I don't care. Does the card promote a diversity of strategies in Tier 2+ decks? If it does, I want it in modern. I feel the same way about the tronlands, through the breach, and mox opal. Maybe some of them violate that qualification, but IMO that is the standard against which these borderline cards should be evaluated. Unlike how "fair" something might be, or how much you personally tilt playing against it (there's a tenth circle of hell set aside for Eidolon of the Great Revel), this metric directly leads to more players being able to enjoy the game and, through theory crafting, can be discussed in more objective terms.
Also, I wasn't trolling. Its simply the mindset shared on the dozens of pages in this thread. That, and black discard can never be over-powered but blue permission can.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
I think Enigma Drake is even better, though. People have always said that Spellheart Chimera could be Modern playable if it had 4 toughness, so they printed that card. Unfortunately, it comes right as Bolt has been supplanted in the format by Push, so I'm not sure if that 4th toughness matters as much anymore. Either way, I think there could be a UR spells deck with this guy, Cryptic Serpent, Bedlam Reveler, and maybe TitI.
That aside, it's frustrating as a blue player to see them actively trying to push blue creatures. Not that it's a bad thing, but it feels like they're thinking, "Oh, blue isn't good enough? Here's some better blue creatures!" That's not what we want. We want better blue spells. I'm not playing blue for their creatures, I would just play green decks if I wanted that. As Foretold looks like it has some promise, but there were once again (so far) no good counterspells, card draw, or cantrips.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Lets wait and see with Hour of Devastation, where they supposedly start to really "correct" things.
RUG Temur Deprive Delver
BUG Sultai Deprive Delver
Will much actually change?
I doubt it. Definitely don't hold your breath, but waiting and seeing for the next set is definitely more reasonable than it has been in the past.
I don't envision better counters or draw spells or cantrips coming back as part of making U great again. Cards like Cryptic Serpent are actually what I expect, aggressively costed threats that are far better in older formats that have better cantrips and counterspells. They have already produced 3 2c.c. counters and none of them seem modern playable. maybe we will get a unsummon with a reflector mage type of affect attached.
I think part of the problem with having expectations for a "better" counterspell or card draw, etc... is that those affects perform well enough in standard to not warrant a boost. It is also very difficult to balance out power of such a pushed card with intents for play in Modern, look at the last pushed draw spells printed Treasure Cruise and DDT "broke" the format by making BGx decks generally bad. I think the days of good permission, draw spells, and cantrips are firmly in the past which to me signals that the design space left for WotC to print pushed modern playable U cards is in Creature types, answers(not permission but answers very different things) and enchantments. As foretold is a example of a "pushed" enchantment that could potentially be busted at some time in the future. Or TiTi as a example of a powerful creature etc....These might not be the things that we want as blue mages but I think they will be the things we will get.
To be fair, Magnus Lantto is a really good player. The fact that he's got a 75% win rate in the mirror shows that his numbers are systematically skewed by being better than his opponents on mtgo, on average. The real matchup numbers for an average player against another average player probably aren't as appalling.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
That 75% in the mirror really calls the dataset into question, and the only way I see to salvage it is to set the mirror as the benchmark for even matchups.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I disagree with this (specially the part in bold). There is ample design space for U permission spells that is not broken. The problem is that WOTC does not want to print them because it is "unfun" for "new players" accrding to their "market research". Thats why their good permission (as in Universal & Hard) is "cancel w/ upside". But if they moved to a "counterpsell with downside" template, this would help U alot without being oppresive. Example: "Reversed Dissolve: UU counter target spell, that spell's controler may scry 1" (or scry 2, or scry some number. There is a number that makes this spell balanced. Or "exhausting denial: UU Counter target spell, then it's controller chooses a land you control. That land does not untap during your next untap phase". Or "looting denial: UU counter target spell, that spell's controller may loot". Basically, you can pick a positive effect X worth 1/2 a mana to 1 mana and template your counterspells as "UU: counter target spell, the spell's controller gets effect X." This would be modern playable and not oppresive.
The reason none of the 2 c.c. counters see play is that (a) they are soft counters (a-la mana leak) that loose value when the games go long (and games going long is precisely what control wants, so these spells just hamstring you) or (b) they cost you too much tempo (like deprive, that sets you back 1 land permanently. That effect is worth way more than 1 mana; i.e. the downside is way too "down"). Except for deprive, there are no 2 mana hard counters that are also universal, and this is what modern needs in its counterspells. A 1/2 to 1 mana downside is a cost most control players would gladly pay.
When the game focuses on creature combat as the most important interaction probably yes.
Modern Tallowisp Spirits - A Modern Tallowisp Deck UW
Eldrazi Ninjas - Summoning Octopus Jutsu YYYYAAAHHHH!
STANDARD
Naban Wizards
You forgot about Familiar's Ruse
First off WotC prefers to print counterpells that tie into set mechanics Silumgar's Scorn was functionally counterspell in standard but is pretty much garbage in Modern. Even Deprive and its disqualifying draw back for modern was functionally counterspell in Standard as getting to ensure landfall triggers actually made it pretty great. Counterspell is now Cancel this is just the reality of modern card design and among other reasons Magic as a game has expanded its player base much broader since abandoning true hard counters for 2 and I don't think WotC will risk that to make a handful of people happy. Not a single one of the ideas you floated sound like anything WotC would print since 07' not saying I don't wish they would just that this is not in the Modern design philosophy.
As long as Mid-Range combat oriented game play is the focus of MTG hard cheap non-conditional counters will be out of the game. Not a single one of the draw backs you listed above will come close to bringing parity on say 2 mana spell for a 4-6 mana spell unless your opponent is jumping through hoops to gain the power of the 2c.c. hard counter. Getting set back a land drop doesn't seem like a bad deal if you countering a Siege Rhino or something but losing your Siege Rhino and getting to scry or loot? that Is yes something I could live with because I obviously came out way ahead.
2 mana hard counters are powerful and I would love for counterspellx to be in Modern as it would make every deck I play better. I simply do not see such a card coming into Standard and that is the crux of it right. The problem is that in standard crap like Essence Scatter is good enough to do the job and WotC knows this. Counterspell is a card WotC has compared to Dark Ritual and Sword to Plowshares it is not a power they introduce lightly and they know that a UU hard counter that has a "downside" that is no big whoop to the control player anyways has a risk of dominating standard in way that makes them very nervous.
They will keep making UU "counter target spell if you leap through this hoop" variants but they will continue to be tied to set mechanics and unless the sets mechanics line up well with some very common feature of Modern the hoop will probably be some hyper restrictive block focused element.
I would imagine if WotC printed say "Reversed Dissolve" UU counter target spell its controller may draw a card and untap up to two lands. Something like that I could imagine WotC printing get to counter say your 5 drop but you get to untap and draw and potentially play a follow up.
believe me I hope that I am wrong, I would be so happy if next set comes out and some laughable draw back was strapped to a real hard counter.
Search Your feelings you know what I say is true.
Would anyone be upset if they did something unexpected like:
so and so is now banned.
so and so is now unbanned.
Counterspell is now added to the format.
I mean, it's their rule that they can only add cards through Standard. With New World Order changing the design paradigm to be so "new player friendly" and that ideology conflicting with Modern, they could certainly justify changing that limitation.
UBRGrixis Kiki Control
BGUSultai Shadow
GWRBushwhacker Zoo
EDH:
BGU Sidisi, Brood Tyrant
UBR Marchesa, the Black Rose
GWU Roon of the Hidden Realm
Yeah, it's certainly a small sample size, but a player of Magnus' caliber would be somewhere in the 60s against the field with any high tier deck. And doing the math on the numbers he posted, he's at 67%. That seems a little high, but not unreasonably so considering his skill and the known power of the deck. Now, if the average player was able to achieve a 67% winrate with the deck, it would be a problem. In MTGGoldfish's Modern analytics from mid-2015, the highest performing decks were Bant Company and Suicide Zoo, both at around 57%. The real question here is how much better than the average player we think Magnus might be. Going by the MOCS data you mentioned, the top players are generally 10-19% better than an average player. Magnus said his win rate with this deck was rivaled by the old DS deck, so I think it's fair to say that DS Jund is likely around 57% or a couple points below that (just to put it in perspective, UR Twin was at a 53% rate), putting it as one of the best decks in Modern, but not really as an outlier.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
You really should have linked the original article, it stops people from speculating about his 76% win rate in the mirror.
http://www.mtgmintcard.com/articles/writers/magnus-lantto/500-matches-with-deaths-shadow
He straight up says that he built his deck to beat the mirror. There you go.
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Big Johnny.
Their ideal is becoming more and more invalid. Modern is quite deep now with 14 years of sets.
Buying into the format is a commitment, it's not an afterlife for rotating standard cards the way extended was.
Players accept that. I can't think of any player that would disapprove the addition of new blood by means outside of standard.
David Ochoa: "Mono-bacon!..."
Yeah, and Magnus was a long time Suicide Zoo player, so he's more experienced with the style of play than most players are.
In other news: Dredge is back to 7%. My friend still plays the deck, and while it's a tiny bit less consistent and no longer has access to the plan of casting huge Grave Trolls, it was quickly apparent to us both that the deck was barely dented by the ban. Dredge is still a very good deck.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
By very definition, the average player on MTGO has a 50% win rate. If your win rate is higher than that, either you're an above average player, or you're playing an above average deck.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW