That's why it's not a twin situation. It's not a head-down combo-out deck. It's the kind of deck you like on camera.
What is a "head-down combo-out deck"?
Twin was banned on some borderline dominance numbers and desire to not see consecutive modern PTs won by the same deck.
But it had an "oops, I win" button that did not take a whole lot of thought or skill. I wouldn't be surprised if they have an unsaid (or maybe they have said it?) agreement that skill intensive decks be given a little more slack when it comes to the reasonings you mentioned. Now, twin had skill intensive matchups but the deck clearly did not have the same learning curve or pilot difficulty as ds
That's why it's not a twin situation. It's not a head-down combo-out deck. It's the kind of deck you like on camera.
What is a "head-down combo-out deck"?
Twin was banned on some borderline dominance numbers and desire to not see consecutive modern PTs won by the same deck.
But it had an "oops, I win" button that did not take a whole lot of thought or skill. I wouldn't be surprised if they have an unsaid (or maybe they have said it?) agreement that skill intensive decks be given a little more slack when it comes to the reasonings you mentioned. Now, twin had skill intensive matchups but the deck clearly did not have the same learning curve or pilot difficulty as ds
Did you play the deck? Did you play against it a lot? There was a lot more to it than the myths and legends suggest, never mind the fact that jamming a turn 4 combo is almost always incorrect and leads to tempo blowouts or game losses. And "Have the combo or lose" game plans against fast/linear decks only go so far. A turn 4 combo only happens 13-26% under ideal conditions, and realistically between 10-15% of being successful. There's a reason it was destroyed by decks running discard, counters, and removal...
If you're saying that Bxx shadow is more skill intensive than URx Twin, I'm not sure I agree. Certainly I wouldn't agree that there is a wide gap there. I found URx twin to be a moderately skill-intensive deck to play against - and there were lots of opportunity for errors from URx twin pilots and opponents alike.
I'm not sure why people think that Bxx shadow are hard decks to pilot. I watch pros mess up playing Knightfall all the time, and that deck isn't particularly hard to pilot either.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I did play with, and against, twin quite a bit. I didn't enjoy playing the deck (I am a tempo player and that deck is more combo/control than tempo, but sadly it was probably as close to tempo as modern will ever get) but I did enjoy playing against it quite a bit. I thought it indeed led to some very skill intensive games, but against burn for instance you were dumb not to jam deceiver exarch turn 3. I've seen plenty of games on camera where twin wins turn 4 and I don't think wizards wants that on camera from a control deck. My point is (fairly or unfairly) that I believe they will be more lenient with GDS because it is a deck that basically all of modern likes as being the best deck.
Also I'm not sure I'd call Knightfall easy to pilot either (and yes I also have this deck, I preordered 100 copies of retreat as soon as I saw them). It cares about sequencing of lands about as much as any deck in modern. It is an added layer of thought that most decks don't have to consider.
EDIT: For the record, I would like to see twin back in the format. I am simply stating what I believe to be the opinion of WotC. I think we can all agree they would prefer Jund as the best deck compared to storm; now where you place twin in relation to those two is the real debate here.
I'm not sure how much we should make of the rationale given for the Twin ban. Everyone knows the reasoning was ****-eyed even if in the end it may have been good for the format (debatable).
Trying to measure shadow by the same metrics of "suppressing diversity" and "too many good results" is probably pointless. Twin was banned to spice up the pro tour and we all know it - they needed to say something else about it at the time. Now there is no Modern pro tour, so don't expect the same scenario to play out with any other deck.
I think all other bans have been pretty tight with what people understand as the ban criteria for the format - but twin is absolutely an outlier and not the one you should point to to explain why anything else should be banned.
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Modern
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
My point about knightfall is that all decks have a learning curve and no modern deck is "easy" to pilot. Even burn has to consider things like tempo and answers and can't just play out it's hand.
DS decks have a learning curve, sure. But it's not really any different from other modern decks in that regard. Twin had it's learning curve, as does Knightfall.
Against burn it might have been correct to jam the combo turn 4, but they played Rending Volley after the SB which would blow you out. Twin was a deck that used the threat of a turn 4 combo to force the game's tempo to slow down more than it actually tried to combo on that turn.
I hope they don't ban DS, but I don't really think it is a better viewing experience than Twin. I liked the twin deck and the tempo-based play patterns (playing against, watching it on stream). *shrug*
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
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Burn RBG
My point about knightfall is that all decks have a learning curve and no modern deck is "easy" to pilot. Even burn has to consider things like tempo and answers and can't just play out it's hand.
DS decks have a learning curve, sure. But it's not really any different from other modern decks in that regard. Twin had it's learning curve, as does Knightfall.
Against burn it might have been correct to jam the combo turn 4, but they played Rending Volley after the SB which would blow you out. Twin was a deck that used the threat of a turn 4 combo to force the game's tempo to slow down more than it actually tried to combo on that turn.
I hope they don't ban DS, but I don't really think it is a better viewing experience than Twin. I liked the twin deck and the tempo-based play patterns (playing against, watching it on stream). *shrug*
I agree, and your posts throughout this thread have been mostly terrific. I just think the fact that DS has to live on the edge of death to get the most out of its namesake card while twin could kill you from 5653764745 out of nowhere clearly make DS matches more "exciting" to watch. But that is really all opinion. I just happen to think the opinion I hold is more likely than not shared by WotC on this.
Every deck definitely has a learning curve and to be an expert twin player was one of the harder things to master while it was legal, but you could simply be an average twin player and still get good results so the learning curve for that deck was not as important as in something like lantern control.
I realize my arguments were fairly simplistic, but that was mostly because I didn't feel the need to rehash every twin argument we've all seen a million times here. I wish it would be unbanned, I think we are on the same side here.
Interesting that modern doesn't get a mention at all. Kinda annoying, really.
It's not the norm for other formats than those experiencing changes to receive a text. We were pretty lucky that it happened recently. I think it's pretty entitled to suddenly expect a mention every announcement now.
Wizards said recently they would keep their eye on Shadow and look for an easy way to boost white (probably white, right?) in the meantime. I think with the recent Shadow results, Wizards is a little unsure if the format is as stable/diverse as they'd like before releasing SFM. They want to see if Shadow shakes itself out before making those kinds of changes, which is why they didn't pull the trigger this time. If not, they'll have to address the Shadow problem first.
Whether or not you agree with this style of banlist management (remove the problems, then unban cards when things look good), that's how Wizards has historically managed the Modern banlist, so the onus is on anyone disagreeing to come up with reasons why they think Wizards would act differently this time around.
the card itself really isn't worth the card board its printed on...does it serve a purpose? Sure its a blue 1 drop that might not be a 1/1. I would not put it in a list and expect to win a PTQ or GP though.
There is nothing "fine" about creatures that time walk or blow up your opponent's board just for being cast. The Eldrazi were a mistake, are a mistake, and will by a mistake forever. Mana acceleration is a part of Magic, always has been, always will be. Cheating things into play has been part of the game from the beginning. RnD needs to think about that as they design cards. They took nothing into consideration when it came to making the Eldrazi and it gets them in trouble time and time again.
Good points. MTG is has and will always have mana excel or a way to cheat out big creatures it just depends on the format and deck what card(s) that is. The R&D I hope gets better so that we dont have things like Eldrazi winter in Standard and Amulet Bloom in Modern. Eldrazi may or may not have been a mistake as a whole. However, their cards have dramatically impacted Legacy, Modern and Standard for sometime.
Cheating on mana is and will always be problematic
Let's look at some of the top decks in Modern:
Shadow - cheats mana on creatures (delve fatties, 1 mana 10/10s)
Eldrazi/Tron - cheats mana using lands that tap for 2-3 mana each
Dredge - cheats mana by getting multiple recurring free creatures
Storm - "cheats" mana by using accelerants and cost reducers
CoCo - cheats mana by putting free creatures into play at instant speed
Affinity - cheats mana with free creatures and free mana rocks
But remember, Twin is busted and SFM isn't safe for Modern.
Interesting that modern doesn't get a mention at all. Kinda annoying, really.
I think it's pretty entitled to suddenly expect a mention every announcement now.
And I think it's condescending to start name-calling. MTGAARON tweeted that he would address Uxx decks directly "in 6 weeks" march 15, and I didn't find his "address directly" satisfying at all given how brief it was.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Tell us again why we are talking about Splinter Twin, please.
Point is more about how all top Modern decks are doing broken things and/or cheating mana in order to be successful. Twin, SFM, Jace, BBE, Preordain, tons of things that aren't remotely as broken or unfair as the things currently happening in Modern.
Interesting that modern doesn't get a mention at all. Kinda annoying, really.
I think it's pretty entitled to suddenly expect a mention every announcement now.
And I think it's condescending to start name-calling. MTGAARON tweeted that he would address Uxx decks directly "in 6 weeks" march 15, and I didn't find his "address directly" satisfying at all given how brief it was.
Forsythe is a liar whose word isn't worth the time of day.
And I say it with a heavy heart because I want blue control to be great. But if you're angry, the only thing to do is not to invest in the hobby, not to give them money, and complain on Forsythe's twitter feed. That's all you can do and hope for the best.
I don't think the UWx control decks are bad right now. Their solidly tier 2, could easily be in tier 1 soon. The Jeskai Nahiri decks have serious potential IMHO. Nahiri is a beast.
Interesting that modern doesn't get a mention at all. Kinda annoying, really.
It's not the norm for other formats than those experiencing changes to receive a text. We were pretty lucky that it happened recently. I think it's pretty entitled to suddenly expect a mention every announcement now.
Wizards said recently they would keep their eye on Shadow and look for an easy way to boost white (probably white, right?) in the meantime. I think with the recent Shadow results, Wizards is a little unsure if the format is as stable/diverse as they'd like before releasing SFM. They want to see if Shadow shakes itself out before making those kinds of changes, which is why they didn't pull the trigger this time. If not, they'll have to address the Shadow problem first.
Whether or not you agree with this style of banlist management (remove the problems, then unban cards when things look good), that's how Wizards has historically managed the Modern banlist, so the onus is on anyone disagreeing to come up with reasons why they think Wizards would act differently this time around.
Unbanning Stoneforge Mystic would do a lot to counter Death's Shadow though. Batterskull and both white Swords gain you life, so they play poorly with Shadow. It's not a great card in those decks. But, Batterskull and specifically recurring Batterskulls does make a pretty good counter to Shadow to say nothing of silver bullets like Sword of Feast and Famine vs Jund DS.
Bro, we're getting close to two years in Splinter Twin ban, seriously, let it go, you've been posting about it for so long. Literally never type the word again unless it's unbanned
Your points about SFM being "too strong" is right on though, all those decks are doing stupid, broken things---but people fear batterskull not swinging for damage until turn 3? Really?
H0lydiva's recent comment made me go back and look it up for myself. These are from all the online data I have gathered so far this year (n=1635)
Jund Shadow - 7.0%
Colorless Eldrazi - 6.5%
Affinity - 6.1%
Dredge - 4.8%
Abzan Midrange - 4.7%
Naya Burn - 4.6%
Grixis Shadow - 4.5%
UR Storm - 4.2%
RG Scapeshift - 3.3%
Jund Midrange - 3.1%
*Minor caveat, I'm assuming no deck is grossly overperforming, so the actual metagame would have looked similar, at least relatively to each other. If there was such a deck I guess they would have already done or said something regarding it (since win rates are a red flag as well).
So, is it a problem that the most successful decks are either Aggro, Fast Combo or somewhere in the Aggro-Control curve? What about Control? I mean, WU Control is not that far behind (2.9%), but the other slow and interactive decks are all below 1.5% (WG Tron, Jeskai, BG Tron, Grixis, Esper, Lantern, WR...). I immediately thought of this article, where Sam Stoddard mentioned:
Fortunately for us, we do get a ton of very useful data from Magic Online.[...]We also look at the rest of the decks in the format and make sure there is a good amount of diversity. If the top ten decks, by percentage of people playing them, all use the same basic strategy, then we probably need to either ban something or look at unbanning something (if it is a format with banned cards).
Granted, this is nowhere near Eldrazi Winter with 3 Eldrazi decks all over 10%, but it makes you wonder at what point it's too many decks with the same strategy. Regardless, it's hard to deny that slower decks could use some help. Remember the Ancestral Vision unban article:
We also looked at our banned lists for cards that could increase the richness of the format. Currently, the format tends to favor aggressive decks and quick-kill combo decks. We looked for cards that tend to work best in slower decks.
Sounds familiar... My guess is they apparently thought WU Control or something else would rise to as a counterbalance to Shadow decks and just wanted to see how the metagame plays it out. To me, Preordain is no longer an option, but they still have Stoneforge and Jace to try and help slower decks. If this continues, I'd be surprised if we don't eventually get some unban, although we may have to wait. Sadly, they aren't as liberal with unbans as they are with bans.
Also, Grixis Shadow is 16.7% this month so far, doubling Humans and overshadowing the other decks. Not that it means a lot, but it kind of reminds me Jund Shadow's huge success back in March (12.0%) following the Grand Prix win. Let's hope the format can handle this one as well. One last thing... what's up with Humans? Was it just a sleeper and now everyone is playing it? Just a flash in the pan? Besides Grixis Shadow, I have literally no idea of the Human's matchups. Someone please enlighten me.
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Modern:WU WU Control | WBG Abzan Company Frontier:UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
Bro, we're getting close to two years in Splinter Twin ban, seriously, let it go, you've been posting about it for so long. Literally never type the word again unless it's unbanned
Your points about SFM being "too strong" is right on though, all those decks are doing stupid, broken things---but people fear batterskull not swinging for damage until turn 3? Really?
Batterskull actually wouldn't be swinging until turn 4.
Bro, we're getting close to two years in Splinter Twin ban, seriously, let it go, you've been posting about it for so long. Literally never type the word again unless it's unbanned
Considering they don't test, analyze, or really put much thought into choices that so greatly impact Modern, words are literally the only thing we have to help this incompetent group of people that have absolutely no clue about our format actually make decisions that affect tens of thousands of players. I'm not going to let it go because it was the wrong decision made for the wrong reasons at the wrong time and the fruits of the ban have all been monumental failures or completely irrelevant. On top of all that, I don't even believe the deck would all that good today, considering the most played cards in the format are all things that fundamentally wreck the deck (discard spells and creature removal backed by big/fast/powerful threats). There is literally no reasonable justification that deck needs to be banned right now.
Your points about SFM being "too strong" is right on though, all those decks are doing stupid, broken things---but people fear batterskull not swinging for damage until turn 3? Really?
Stoneforge Mystic is laughably tame compared to the kinds of ridiculousness and broken garbage happening in nearly every Modern deck today.
No changes was a good call. Let us have some unbans at the next time.
Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.
Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
I'm definitely disappointed. Not even sure it's a card I'd play competitively, I just don't think it's unbalanced. My guess is it would push Death and Taxes into Tier 1, don't see how having another deck in Tier 1 would be bad for the format.
I really kinda thought they would unban it. Maybe next time.
No changes was a good call. Let us have some unbans at the next time.
Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.
Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
I don't think the community is embracing unbanning SFM. Just a particular portion of it.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
No changes was a good call. Let us have some unbans at the next time.
Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.
Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
I don't think the community is embracing unbanning SFM. Just a particular portion of it.
I'd say that the "what cards do you want unbanned" poll shows otherwise. Same with the posts here. Most of the reliable, level headed posters (not that I am one by any means) have all been here saying they don't really care either way but admit it looks totally harmless now. The few posts that have been skeptical of it's unbanning have generally been shot down immediately.
No changes was a good call. Let us have some unbans at the next time.
Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.
Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
I don't think the community is embracing unbanning SFM. Just a particular portion of it.
I'd say that the "what cards do you want unbanned" poll shows otherwise. Same with the posts here. Most of the reliable, level headed posters (not that I am one by any means) have all been here saying they don't really care either way but admit it looks totally harmless now. The few posts that have been skeptical of it's unbanning have generally been shot down immediately.
That's the thing though, Wizards doesn't operate on this information (or the reality of a card's true strength). They operate on the image and perception of a card combined with the thoughts and feelings of a very select few "pros" and "insiders" using vague and general terms and questions. Remember, having these kinds of conversations openly or with too many people will give too much information to the public about what cards they are looking at banning/unbanning and would cause confusion and panic. So they rely on what they *think* the card does and how they *feel* it would impact the format. This wouldn't be so bad if they didn't display gross negligence or complete incompetence when it comes to the Modern format, how it operates, the flow of the metagame, or even basic deck construction. Remember, we're talking about a guy who thought Sword of the Meek would break Lantern Control and that Temur and Jeskai decks would rise up in the void, even though Grixis had two established archetypes at the time...
Twin was banned on some borderline dominance numbers and desire to not see consecutive modern PTs won by the same deck.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
But it had an "oops, I win" button that did not take a whole lot of thought or skill. I wouldn't be surprised if they have an unsaid (or maybe they have said it?) agreement that skill intensive decks be given a little more slack when it comes to the reasonings you mentioned. Now, twin had skill intensive matchups but the deck clearly did not have the same learning curve or pilot difficulty as ds
Did you play the deck? Did you play against it a lot? There was a lot more to it than the myths and legends suggest, never mind the fact that jamming a turn 4 combo is almost always incorrect and leads to tempo blowouts or game losses. And "Have the combo or lose" game plans against fast/linear decks only go so far. A turn 4 combo only happens 13-26% under ideal conditions, and realistically between 10-15% of being successful. There's a reason it was destroyed by decks running discard, counters, and removal...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I'm not sure why people think that Bxx shadow are hard decks to pilot. I watch pros mess up playing Knightfall all the time, and that deck isn't particularly hard to pilot either.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Also I'm not sure I'd call Knightfall easy to pilot either (and yes I also have this deck, I preordered 100 copies of retreat as soon as I saw them). It cares about sequencing of lands about as much as any deck in modern. It is an added layer of thought that most decks don't have to consider.
EDIT: For the record, I would like to see twin back in the format. I am simply stating what I believe to be the opinion of WotC. I think we can all agree they would prefer Jund as the best deck compared to storm; now where you place twin in relation to those two is the real debate here.
Trying to measure shadow by the same metrics of "suppressing diversity" and "too many good results" is probably pointless. Twin was banned to spice up the pro tour and we all know it - they needed to say something else about it at the time. Now there is no Modern pro tour, so don't expect the same scenario to play out with any other deck.
I think all other bans have been pretty tight with what people understand as the ban criteria for the format - but twin is absolutely an outlier and not the one you should point to to explain why anything else should be banned.
* Esper Draw-Go
* Tezzeret Whir
* Blue Tron
DS decks have a learning curve, sure. But it's not really any different from other modern decks in that regard. Twin had it's learning curve, as does Knightfall.
Against burn it might have been correct to jam the combo turn 4, but they played Rending Volley after the SB which would blow you out. Twin was a deck that used the threat of a turn 4 combo to force the game's tempo to slow down more than it actually tried to combo on that turn.
I hope they don't ban DS, but I don't really think it is a better viewing experience than Twin. I liked the twin deck and the tempo-based play patterns (playing against, watching it on stream). *shrug*
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I agree, and your posts throughout this thread have been mostly terrific. I just think the fact that DS has to live on the edge of death to get the most out of its namesake card while twin could kill you from 5653764745 out of nowhere clearly make DS matches more "exciting" to watch. But that is really all opinion. I just happen to think the opinion I hold is more likely than not shared by WotC on this.
Every deck definitely has a learning curve and to be an expert twin player was one of the harder things to master while it was legal, but you could simply be an average twin player and still get good results so the learning curve for that deck was not as important as in something like lantern control.
I realize my arguments were fairly simplistic, but that was mostly because I didn't feel the need to rehash every twin argument we've all seen a million times here. I wish it would be unbanned, I think we are on the same side here.
Wizards said recently they would keep their eye on Shadow and look for an easy way to boost white (probably white, right?) in the meantime. I think with the recent Shadow results, Wizards is a little unsure if the format is as stable/diverse as they'd like before releasing SFM. They want to see if Shadow shakes itself out before making those kinds of changes, which is why they didn't pull the trigger this time. If not, they'll have to address the Shadow problem first.
Whether or not you agree with this style of banlist management (remove the problems, then unban cards when things look good), that's how Wizards has historically managed the Modern banlist, so the onus is on anyone disagreeing to come up with reasons why they think Wizards would act differently this time around.
Counter-Cat
Colorless Eldrazi Stompy
Good points. MTG is has and will always have mana excel or a way to cheat out big creatures it just depends on the format and deck what card(s) that is. The R&D I hope gets better so that we dont have things like Eldrazi winter in Standard and Amulet Bloom in Modern. Eldrazi may or may not have been a mistake as a whole. However, their cards have dramatically impacted Legacy, Modern and Standard for sometime.
Let's look at some of the top decks in Modern:
Shadow - cheats mana on creatures (delve fatties, 1 mana 10/10s)
Eldrazi/Tron - cheats mana using lands that tap for 2-3 mana each
Dredge - cheats mana by getting multiple recurring free creatures
Storm - "cheats" mana by using accelerants and cost reducers
CoCo - cheats mana by putting free creatures into play at instant speed
Affinity - cheats mana with free creatures and free mana rocks
But remember, Twin is busted and SFM isn't safe for Modern.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Point is more about how all top Modern decks are doing broken things and/or cheating mana in order to be successful. Twin, SFM, Jace, BBE, Preordain, tons of things that aren't remotely as broken or unfair as the things currently happening in Modern.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Forsythe is a liar whose word isn't worth the time of day.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I don't think the UWx control decks are bad right now. Their solidly tier 2, could easily be in tier 1 soon. The Jeskai Nahiri decks have serious potential IMHO. Nahiri is a beast.
Unbanning Stoneforge Mystic would do a lot to counter Death's Shadow though. Batterskull and both white Swords gain you life, so they play poorly with Shadow. It's not a great card in those decks. But, Batterskull and specifically recurring Batterskulls does make a pretty good counter to Shadow to say nothing of silver bullets like Sword of Feast and Famine vs Jund DS.
Your points about SFM being "too strong" is right on though, all those decks are doing stupid, broken things---but people fear batterskull not swinging for damage until turn 3? Really?
So, is it a problem that the most successful decks are either Aggro, Fast Combo or somewhere in the Aggro-Control curve? What about Control? I mean, WU Control is not that far behind (2.9%), but the other slow and interactive decks are all below 1.5% (WG Tron, Jeskai, BG Tron, Grixis, Esper, Lantern, WR...). I immediately thought of this article, where Sam Stoddard mentioned:
Granted, this is nowhere near Eldrazi Winter with 3 Eldrazi decks all over 10%, but it makes you wonder at what point it's too many decks with the same strategy. Regardless, it's hard to deny that slower decks could use some help. Remember the Ancestral Vision unban article:
Sounds familiar... My guess is they apparently thought WU Control or something else would rise to as a counterbalance to Shadow decks and just wanted to see how the metagame plays it out. To me, Preordain is no longer an option, but they still have Stoneforge and Jace to try and help slower decks. If this continues, I'd be surprised if we don't eventually get some unban, although we may have to wait. Sadly, they aren't as liberal with unbans as they are with bans.
Also, Grixis Shadow is 16.7% this month so far, doubling Humans and overshadowing the other decks. Not that it means a lot, but it kind of reminds me Jund Shadow's huge success back in March (12.0%) following the Grand Prix win. Let's hope the format can handle this one as well. One last thing... what's up with Humans? Was it just a sleeper and now everyone is playing it? Just a flash in the pan? Besides Grixis Shadow, I have literally no idea of the Human's matchups. Someone please enlighten me.
Frontier: UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
Batterskull actually wouldn't be swinging until turn 4.
Considering they don't test, analyze, or really put much thought into choices that so greatly impact Modern, words are literally the only thing we have to help this incompetent group of people that have absolutely no clue about our format actually make decisions that affect tens of thousands of players. I'm not going to let it go because it was the wrong decision made for the wrong reasons at the wrong time and the fruits of the ban have all been monumental failures or completely irrelevant. On top of all that, I don't even believe the deck would all that good today, considering the most played cards in the format are all things that fundamentally wreck the deck (discard spells and creature removal backed by big/fast/powerful threats). There is literally no reasonable justification that deck needs to be banned right now.
Stoneforge Mystic is laughably tame compared to the kinds of ridiculousness and broken garbage happening in nearly every Modern deck today.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Nope, they will be evaluating how their "new improved answers" from HoD play into the format. Since that is the earliest they said the design philosophy could be implemented. It's so easy for them to continually point to this kind of argument as justification for inaction as opposed to doing any real testing. They want stability before unbanning things but they are constantly releasing new sets. It's a catch-22 that they are more than happy to be caught in.
Next announcement will also be "no changes" unless DS continues to put up the numbers it did at SCG.
It's been about 5 ban announcements in a row where the community seems to embrace a SFM unban only to see no action. Certainly enough to see a trend at this point and I see no reason they would change their approach now.
I'm definitely disappointed. Not even sure it's a card I'd play competitively, I just don't think it's unbalanced. My guess is it would push Death and Taxes into Tier 1, don't see how having another deck in Tier 1 would be bad for the format.
I really kinda thought they would unban it. Maybe next time.
I don't think the community is embracing unbanning SFM. Just a particular portion of it.
I'd say that the "what cards do you want unbanned" poll shows otherwise. Same with the posts here. Most of the reliable, level headed posters (not that I am one by any means) have all been here saying they don't really care either way but admit it looks totally harmless now. The few posts that have been skeptical of it's unbanning have generally been shot down immediately.
That's the thing though, Wizards doesn't operate on this information (or the reality of a card's true strength). They operate on the image and perception of a card combined with the thoughts and feelings of a very select few "pros" and "insiders" using vague and general terms and questions. Remember, having these kinds of conversations openly or with too many people will give too much information to the public about what cards they are looking at banning/unbanning and would cause confusion and panic. So they rely on what they *think* the card does and how they *feel* it would impact the format. This wouldn't be so bad if they didn't display gross negligence or complete incompetence when it comes to the Modern format, how it operates, the flow of the metagame, or even basic deck construction. Remember, we're talking about a guy who thought Sword of the Meek would break Lantern Control and that Temur and Jeskai decks would rise up in the void, even though Grixis had two established archetypes at the time...
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate