Call me crazy guys but what if thoughtseize was banned?
How much would this hurt the death shadow decks? Quite a bit id imagine
There are few bans which would hurt Modern more. Think things are linear and non-interactive now? A TS ban would make it significantly worse. Thankfully, I can't conceive of a world where Wizards would actually do that, so it's not worth entertaining much.
But aren't the linear decks constructed to not be hurt by T-Seize with redundancy and speed? The issue I'm seeing is that decks either fold to T-Seize, or need to be able to ignore it.
I could see T-Seize banned, but only with an influx of cards to otherwise punish those linear strats.
All the linear decks that TS keeps at bay would return in force. They would either replace or supplement the wider decks, probably the latter, and the format would be in a really bad spot. I understand that a subset of players are unhappy with format elements right now, but that doesn't mean we need to look to these kinds of strange, improbable, and likely ineffective solutions to address the perceived problem.
Or it could be that T-Seize suppresses the control decks, keeping them abscent from the format?
How does a control deck function when Jund/Junk gets to strip their answers at 1 mana with zero possible interaction?
What decks are T-Seize keeping from being dominant in the format? I would be willing to bet control is getting hurt a lot more than linear combo is. Losing a redundant combo piece barely slows linear combo down (I say this as a linear combo player). Getting your Counter/Kill/Kill Con Seized in control hurts a lot more.
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"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
You don't call "dying to removal" if the removal is more expensive in resources than the creature. If you have to spend BG (Abrupt Decay), or W + basic land (PtE) to remove a 1G, that is not "dying to removal". Strictly speaking Goyf dies to removal, but actually your removal is dying to Goyf.
Tesyla, your arguments leads me to suspect you have a limited experience with GBx. Nearly every GBx player hates facing control, whether it's Jeskai, Esper, or UW Control. Those discard doesn't mean *****, we don't run that many threats, and we either play scared and get 1 for 1 until Colonnades and whatever else takes place, or we play our stuff and get blown out.
AV is also a nightmare card, we can't snag it when they're on the play, and to be honest, 1 resolved AV is an incredibly difficult, steep climb to win.
Control is absolutely going to have CA advantage over GBx, the only real path to winning is landing a turn 3 LOTV with no counters in hand and having it stick to the point where you don't have to worry about Snapcaster or flash shenanigans.
Thoughtseize is definitely not suppressing control. DSJ gets super wrecked by control decks. When it comes to Grixis Shadow, I don't know the matchup well enough, took a small break from magic this month.
Seth, every announcement I think SFM is closer and closer to being unbanned. Look at modern, SFM isn't even that much anymore, and K-Command is still a card. I'm playing a turn 3 batterskull if I go untouched and don't lose to a combo deck that can easily outrace it.
I think there's a shot
Unban: SFM (maybe even BBE)
Ban: Nothing
I also think there's a very good chance they declare no changes and wait another 6 months to see if the meta can adapt to Grixis Shadow
If Death Shadow continues to perform this well and make all these top 8s, it's definitely eating a ban in half a year or so
I'm split between death shadow decks, I do think it's good in helping to regulate the format, if it's banned big mana decks are going to dominate this format, which is so much worse than a death shadow format. At the same time, if these results continue, we can't just shrug off Shadow decks
Did some maths, as I was curious about how egregious a 20% day2 to 50% top8 conversion rate was.
In a day 2 with 66 total players and 13 on Grixis DS, the probability of exactly 4 Grixis DS in top8 is 3.65%, while the probability of 4 or more Grixis DS in top 8 is 4.21%.
Hm. Interesting. What were the conversion rates for Eldrazi Tron and Living End?
Good point. Eldrazi Tron had 3 decks in day2 and 2 decks in top8 for a 66% conversion rate. If conversion was random, then the probability of exactly 2 Eldrazi Tron Decks making top8 is 3.55%, and the probability of 2 or more Eldrazi Tron in top 8 is 3.67%.
Living End only had a single deck in day 2, so the probability of that deck randomly top8'ing becomes a straight 8/66=12%.
Seth, every announcement I think SFM is closer and closer to being unbanned. Look at modern, SFM isn't even that much anymore, and K-Command is still a card. I'm playing a turn 3 batterskull if I go untouched and don't lose to a combo deck that can easily outrace it.
I think there's a shot
Unban: SFM (maybe even BBE)
Ban: Nothing
I also think there's a very good chance they declare no changes and wait another 6 months to see if the meta can adapt to Grixis Shadow
If Death Shadow continues to perform this well and make all these top 8s, it's definitely eating a ban in half a year or so
I'm split between death shadow decks, I do think it's good in helping to regulate the format, if it's banned big mana decks are going to dominate this format, which is so much worse than a death shadow format. At the same time, if these results continue, we can't just shrug off Shadow decks
Lets hope that BBE stays banned, cascade is a broken mechanic and BBE is the most broken of the Cascade cards.
Anyone who thinks Grixis Shadow is broken needs to go use a card rental service and play some MTGO competitive leagues with the deck and come back. The deck is very beatable, it's not easy 5-0s. What we're seeing right now is the FotM bubble. The online meta is already super hostile to the deck, and the paper meta will adjust. One thing I've noticed is the movement towards this burn-heavy Jeskai Control build. It's pretty much as difficult as the UW Control matchup, but you also have to watch your life total or else they'll burn you out. People will get tired of getting crushed in the comp leagues and move onto something else.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
The decision was made 2 weeks ago.
Thus, Standard: 95% No changes or 5% Ban Aetherworks Marvel
Modern, No Changes. In the long run, Stoneforge Mystic would be totally fine.
Legacy, No Changes.
Vintage, No changes(people are not playing the format atm).
I will admit that Grixis Shadow is warping the format a little bit around it, but only a bit. I think it's warping it to the extend Splinter Twin was warping the format. IMO, even Splinter Twin was a wrong and totally silly ban in this regard. And if we want to be honest with ourselves, Grixis Shadow is a lot weaker than Splinter Twin was as a deck and has several weaknesses and bad matchups when Twin had just one or two.
But as Spiegel said, a Shadowless format is a big mana format. What do we prefer of those 2? In the end of the line, I don't think Wizards care and if the deck dominates another GP or two they will ban Street Wraith even if AF said what he said(if I go by the other people's logic). But even if the Wraith gets banned, Eldra Tron NEEDS to be fixed as a deck.
I repeat that if there is a Street Wraith ban, I hope they make the same thought experiment they did in Standard:
Ban Eldrazi Temple together with it, because Eldra Tron is already too strong. Without its main policeman, it will be ultra broken and a bad experience for the format.
So, you can see that with the bans we will have more bans that will follow.
This way, we empower DS bad matchups which are: Abzan Midrange and UW Control, which both will take Stoneforge Mystic
Eitherway, Grixis Shadow is a Very beatable and OK deck to have a WraithPk said.
If you/we want Modern to open its wings and fly, Stoneforge Mystic should be unbanned.
If we want the ban series to continue more and more stuff should be nerfed and banned
Would rather have a shadow format than a big mana format any day. Plus if we did, We would have to do some big mana bans which would make people mad.
SFM unban would be a smart move right now from wizards.....thus why I'm skeptical.
What? Just this weekend, half the top 8 was Grixis Shadow
Shadow decks have won multiple tournaments since Vancouever, and have had a copy in the top 8 in nearly every tournament this past half year
What I'm hearing from Wraithpack is, "I bought into Shadow, it's fine, it doesn't need to be banned because I play it".
Bro, it's getting into more top 8's than Splinter Twin did, and even it's bad matchups aren't that bad
Shadow decks are difficult to play, and they're unforgiving, that doesn't excuse it's power level any less.
I'm not demanding a ban right now, I really want some unbans before we go down that route, but if the next half year is the same, you can't seriously deny it's an issue. This is coming from someone who owns the DS cards.
The only issue is that the meta would become real ugly, real fast without Shadow
Big mana decks and probably a bunch of solitaire decks would really take over. I think true interactive decks (and not "Tron interactive") would be a bad plan in that meta
When big mana decks go to the top they can be hated fairly easily. Right now decks need 4+ gy hate cards and people have been dropping big mana sb cards to get them in. I honestly think the fact that so many gy decks are at the top of the meta is the issue. Sfm unban might help this too bu getting more decks in the format that can play rip because they themselves don't care about the gy.
What? Just this weekend, half the top 8 was Grixis Shadow
Let's see how GP Vegas goes this weekend before we start freaking out about something like that.
I said it multiple times, a Shadow deck has been in the top 8 in nearly every modern tournament these past 6 months (and took the whole thing a few times), how am I freaking out?
When big mana decks go to the top they can be hated fairly easily. Right now decks need 4+ gy hate cards and people have been dropping big mana sb cards to get them in. I honestly think the fact that so many gy decks are at the top of the meta is the issue. Sfm unban might help this too bu getting more decks in the format that can play rip because they themselves don't care about the gy.
I don't believe that. Titan shift and Tron/Eldrazi decks have a nice piece of the pie in the meta, I don't feel people are leaving their anti-big mana cards at all.
What? Just this weekend, half the top 8 was Grixis Shadow
I can remember past SCG tourneys with 3 or 4 Abzan Company decks. People were screaming for bans in here.
Those two Gp's is what matters and they had 16 different decks. GP Vegas will be another big test.
The only issue is that the meta would become real ugly, real fast without Shadow
This and there is the issue of more bans following after that. Eldrazi Temple, Scrap Trawler and more decks are OK mainly because there is Grixis Shadow to police them. Without it, you can say goodbye to those cards.
Yeah, a Shadow ban would definitely lead to more bans, I think. It'd start getting people to turn against Tron lands, ancient stirrings, chalices, valakut, etc.
Grixis isn't the same as Company, Company dominance was very short, Shadow have absolutely ruled the format these past six months with multiple wins and an appearance in the top 8 a lot. The difference is results.
We can expect the announcement around 10, correct? I want to have my cart of SFM cards ready so that I can just be more disappointed when she isn't unbanned.
Yeah, I think standard has really shown why banning is rarely a good idea (I mean, obviously the eye of Ugin was a fantastic ban), but all banning has done in standard has led to new oppressive decks. Honestly, they were better off just leaving copter unbanned, standard is very bad now and not only is there an oppressive deck, but now they lost consumer confidence
Bans in modern have usually lead to just bad bans here and more issues
I do think
Deathrite Shaman
POD
Eye of Ugin
GGT
were fantastic bans. I wonder if probe needed a ban, it really seems like all this interaction and fatal push could have possibly dealt with it. Probe itself is possibly too powerful of a card, I'm not 100% sure if it was a great ban. It wasn't an awful banning, but I'm curious if fatal push would have done enough damage to the decks running it
WOTC has really failed on a fundamental level, and they've claimed Hour of Devastation is where they're correcting themselves, we may actually see good spells now instead of them just pushing creatures and planeswalkers.
When big mana decks go to the top they can be hated fairly easily. Right now decks need 4+ gy hate cards and people have been dropping big mana sb cards to get them in. I honestly think the fact that so many gy decks are at the top of the meta is the issue. Sfm unban might help this too bu getting more decks in the format that can play rip because they themselves don't care about the gy.
I don't believe that. Titan shift and Tron/Eldrazi decks have a nice piece of the pie in the meta, I don't feel people are leaving their anti-big mana cards at all.
well let's look at the top 16 from the recent scg open.
Dredge has no hate, gds is trying to play rejections/counters rather than keep them off lands, Le even went away from 4 main fulminator to 2/2 split so they could run 4 macabre, 9th place control went away from seas to 3 moltens (seems silly to me), bw eldrazi nothing, zoo 2 moon sb 1 gq main, delver rejection, counters company nothing, abzan actually had 3 fulminator sb, storm nothing.
Rejection as your main attack post sb doesn't seem great when the opponent is on 2 cavern and 4 maps but that's just my opinion. Then you see a skred deck in the top 32 with what 2 anger,3 relic, and 4 moon.
I will say this again and I know that a lot of us are feeling nervous.
As Sheridan is stating for one or two years in here: The Modern ban policy has failed. Every time WOTC bans a card, after the dust settles(which is 4-6 months afterwards), something else comes up as the "best deck" and people are screaming for bans. Then, pros are jumping on the bandwagon so hard, that there seems to be an issue. Along the way, we lose more and more people from Modern. The only reason we did not lose more is because Standard is going through a rough period.
Furthermore, not only did the Modern ban policy failed, but also the "ban Things in Standard" policy tragically failed. They banned 3 cards, then Copycat emerged as the best deck. They banned it, Marvel emerges as an oppressive deck. If they do ban it, you can say hello to Gideon, Ally Of Zendikar summer as well.
This is also happenning in Vintage: They banned Gitaxian Probe and Gush, because the Lodestone Golem ban left a broken Monastery Mentor format. Now, Mishra's Workshop appears to be under scrutiny. So, the ban policy is failing in Vintage as well.
So, it's more generic than that: The ban things policy has failed and continues to be failing hard in every format and every aspect.
Instead, WOTC should try an "unban policy" for once! Maybe this is the way for the format to self regulate itself.
With the exception of sdt. That seems to be a great example of a deck still being viable and the ban actually doing what it was trying to but they also waited forever to pull the trigger on it and I think that helped. Predict was newerish tech and if sdt got banned before people moved to predict maybe the deck wouldn't have stayed so smoothly.
As far as modern and std though I fully agree. Probe and eye were probably the only 2 good bans imo in a long while.
No, GGT was a great ban too, dredge was a busted ass deck that needed maindeck GY hate and like 6 SB GY hate cards to stand a chance. The deck was broken beyond belief
Or it could be that T-Seize suppresses the control decks, keeping them abscent from the format?
How does a control deck function when Jund/Junk gets to strip their answers at 1 mana with zero possible interaction?
What decks are T-Seize keeping from being dominant in the format? I would be willing to bet control is getting hurt a lot more than linear combo is. Losing a redundant combo piece barely slows linear combo down (I say this as a linear combo player). Getting your Counter/Kill/Kill Con Seized in control hurts a lot more.
"I hope to have such a death... lying in triumph atop the broken bodies of those who slew me..."
AV is also a nightmare card, we can't snag it when they're on the play, and to be honest, 1 resolved AV is an incredibly difficult, steep climb to win.
Control is absolutely going to have CA advantage over GBx, the only real path to winning is landing a turn 3 LOTV with no counters in hand and having it stick to the point where you don't have to worry about Snapcaster or flash shenanigans.
Thoughtseize is definitely not suppressing control. DSJ gets super wrecked by control decks. When it comes to Grixis Shadow, I don't know the matchup well enough, took a small break from magic this month.
I think there's a shot
Unban: SFM (maybe even BBE)
Ban: Nothing
I also think there's a very good chance they declare no changes and wait another 6 months to see if the meta can adapt to Grixis Shadow
If Death Shadow continues to perform this well and make all these top 8s, it's definitely eating a ban in half a year or so
I'm split between death shadow decks, I do think it's good in helping to regulate the format, if it's banned big mana decks are going to dominate this format, which is so much worse than a death shadow format. At the same time, if these results continue, we can't just shrug off Shadow decks
This, at least, is quite an exaggeration.
I agree with Sheridan in that a TS ban would unleash the fury of linear decks rather that resulting in some kind of control renaissance.
Good point. Eldrazi Tron had 3 decks in day2 and 2 decks in top8 for a 66% conversion rate. If conversion was random, then the probability of exactly 2 Eldrazi Tron Decks making top8 is 3.55%, and the probability of 2 or more Eldrazi Tron in top 8 is 3.67%.
Living End only had a single deck in day 2, so the probability of that deck randomly top8'ing becomes a straight 8/66=12%.
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
Lets hope that BBE stays banned, cascade is a broken mechanic and BBE is the most broken of the Cascade cards.
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Banned: Nothing (with a 10% chance Street Wraith gets hit)
Unbanned: Nothing
Would rather have a shadow format than a big mana format any day. Plus if we did, We would have to do some big mana bans which would make people mad.
SFM unban would be a smart move right now from wizards.....thus why I'm skeptical.
decks playing:
none
Shadow decks have won multiple tournaments since Vancouever, and have had a copy in the top 8 in nearly every tournament this past half year
What I'm hearing from Wraithpack is, "I bought into Shadow, it's fine, it doesn't need to be banned because I play it".
Bro, it's getting into more top 8's than Splinter Twin did, and even it's bad matchups aren't that bad
Shadow decks are difficult to play, and they're unforgiving, that doesn't excuse it's power level any less.
I'm not demanding a ban right now, I really want some unbans before we go down that route, but if the next half year is the same, you can't seriously deny it's an issue. This is coming from someone who owns the DS cards.
Big mana decks and probably a bunch of solitaire decks would really take over. I think true interactive decks (and not "Tron interactive") would be a bad plan in that meta
Let's see how GP Vegas goes this weekend before we start freaking out about something like that.
I said it multiple times, a Shadow deck has been in the top 8 in nearly every modern tournament these past 6 months (and took the whole thing a few times), how am I freaking out?
I don't believe that. Titan shift and Tron/Eldrazi decks have a nice piece of the pie in the meta, I don't feel people are leaving their anti-big mana cards at all.
Yeah, a Shadow ban would definitely lead to more bans, I think. It'd start getting people to turn against Tron lands, ancient stirrings, chalices, valakut, etc.
Grixis isn't the same as Company, Company dominance was very short, Shadow have absolutely ruled the format these past six months with multiple wins and an appearance in the top 8 a lot. The difference is results.
Company ban outcry was an overreaction.
URW PillowFort Stasis (costruction)
modern:
U
pauper:
UB Servitor Control
xenob8 : you know you are going to have a bad time when opponent starts with snow covered island
<----- This guy is biased.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I just want to use SFM to fetch grafted wargear to use with abyssal persecutor and lingering souls :^/
Bans in modern have usually lead to just bad bans here and more issues
I do think
Deathrite Shaman
POD
Eye of Ugin
GGT
were fantastic bans. I wonder if probe needed a ban, it really seems like all this interaction and fatal push could have possibly dealt with it. Probe itself is possibly too powerful of a card, I'm not 100% sure if it was a great ban. It wasn't an awful banning, but I'm curious if fatal push would have done enough damage to the decks running it
WOTC has really failed on a fundamental level, and they've claimed Hour of Devastation is where they're correcting themselves, we may actually see good spells now instead of them just pushing creatures and planeswalkers.
Dredge has no hate, gds is trying to play rejections/counters rather than keep them off lands, Le even went away from 4 main fulminator to 2/2 split so they could run 4 macabre, 9th place control went away from seas to 3 moltens (seems silly to me), bw eldrazi nothing, zoo 2 moon sb 1 gq main, delver rejection, counters company nothing, abzan actually had 3 fulminator sb, storm nothing.
Rejection as your main attack post sb doesn't seem great when the opponent is on 2 cavern and 4 maps but that's just my opinion. Then you see a skred deck in the top 32 with what 2 anger,3 relic, and 4 moon.
With the exception of sdt. That seems to be a great example of a deck still being viable and the ban actually doing what it was trying to but they also waited forever to pull the trigger on it and I think that helped. Predict was newerish tech and if sdt got banned before people moved to predict maybe the deck wouldn't have stayed so smoothly.
As far as modern and std though I fully agree. Probe and eye were probably the only 2 good bans imo in a long while.
While not important to modern directly the article is a really interesting read and look into how they handle bannings.
In the yard: RUG Delver, Kiki-Chord, Grixis Twin, Mardu Control, Smallpox, Jeskai Control, Jeskai Delver, Assault Loam, Elves, Deathcloud, Eggs, Storm