We've got a very busy week ahead of us, Moderners. In case you haven't seen, announcement week is coming. A couple of things to note.
1) Tomorrow, we will find out about the changes to set design. This could impact how we get reprints, the power level of cards, and ultimately the future of cards entering Modern.
2) The ban list announcement has been moved forward a day and is now scheduled for Tuesday.
3) Wednesday is the traditional Announcement Day: new products, which means potential reprints.
4) Thursday brings Organized Play announcements. We don't know what this means, but it could impact what the formats of future Pro Tours and Grand Prix events will be.
The reason I am posting this here is I understand that some of you may be nervous about these announcements and what they could possibly mean for Modern. Maybe some are nervous about Thursday and whether or not Modern gets less major events. Perhaps the set changes worry you and what the quality of cards and reprints we will get in the future. Ban list updates are also never pleasant for any Modern player. No matter what concerns you, understand that State of the Meta is meant to be a home for productive discussion. In the coming week, remember that your posts must reflect this purpose, and that emotions will run high. There are users who may be nervous or even scared of what this week will bring, so please keep in mind that if your post is not being productive, is not polite, or is attempting to provoke users who have been affected by a change, you need to rethink what you are posting and why. Remember, we all want what we believe is best for Modern -- this week may bring about something that some people see as a step in the wrong direction, and the right direction for others. We've got a lot of uncertainty ahead of us, and while some are comfortable with that, others may not. Please try to understand another user's perspective; that alone will make this week a lot easier for this thread.
Carry on Moderners! --CavalryWolfPack
P.S. This post is not being made out of the current state of the thread. It is not a group warning -- it is a general PSA about what the state of this thread could be in the near future.
Alright, I'm also calling " No bans" for next announcement. Reasoning:
We know URx Twin's 19% GP/PT Top8 spots were ban worthy, so that's the baseline. With 8 2017 Modern GPs (or 10 if they count Unified Modern GPs), the total Top8 spots are 64 (or 88) and the red flag for any deck would be 12 (or 17) GP Top8s this year. So far, we have:
4- Dredge
3 - Affinity, Jund Shadow
2 - Abzan Company, Grixis Shadow, Lantern Control, Living End
So, all decks are currently safe from the diveristy ban. With 4 GPs left, the top performer would need 2 Top8s a GP to reach Twin's level, which seems highly unlikely. If we take all Shadow decks together, we have 6 so far (3 Jund, 2 Grixis, 1 Tribal Zoo). Not ban worthy either and they would need to average 1.5 Top8s to reach Twin's success level at the GP level, which doesn't seem impossible.
The same analysis if they take into account the Unified Modern GPs, just in case:
5 - Affinity, Jund Shadow
4 - Dredge
2 - Abzan Company, Bant Company, Eldrazi Tron, Grixis Shadow, Lantern Control, Living End
Again, all decks should be safe from the diversity ban, for now. With 5 GPs left, the top performers would need to average 2.4 Top8s each GP to reach Twin's level, which seems unlikely. If you group all Shadow decks you get 9, still 8 spots away from 17, but more likely at 1.6 average.
That being said, does anyone have any hard numbers on Storm's pre turn 4 win percentage?
As for unbans, I think Stoneforge it's the most likely option, but I wouldn't get my hopes high at all
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Modern:WU WU Control | WBG Abzan Company Frontier:UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
That being said, does anyone have any hard numbers on Storm's pre turn 4 win percentage?
As for unbans, I think Stoneforge it's the most likely option, but I wouldn't get my hopes high at all
I don't know the percentage, but I feel as long as the top deck in the format has 6-8 discard spells to go with creature removal, Storm should be safe. If that were to change later on, something could happen possibly in the future.
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Legacy - Sneak Show, BR Reanimator, Miracles, UW Stoneblade
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/ Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander - Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build) (dead format for me)
If I had to guess I think wotc might announce that they are invoking a procedure to allow cards they deem fit into formats where they might not be legal. For example a few random cards could really help standard and could maybe have stopped some of the bans. The same could possibly be said here for modern. Could you imagine if they just announced that (x) card is now legal in modern because we feel it might help handle problem (y) without us haveung to ban option (z).
It is my belief that there will be no archetype destroying bans. Wizards must have seen the backlash generated by the twin banning and realized that killing off an entire deck is not a good business model. That is why all three bans since then have only weakened decks, but otherwise kept them in tact:
Eye of Ugin - many forms of eldrazi are still alive and well in modern
Gitaxian Probe - infect is still here, death shadow of course still exists, storm is doing as well as ever
Grave Troll - we all know dredge is still around
So based on this I think their philosophy going forward is to not (purposely) kill off any decks. So no Deaths Shadow ban; no Mox Opal, Simian Spirit Guide, Grapeshot, Prized Amalgam, Tron lands, or eldrazi temple either as any of these either certainly would or might kill off Grixis Shadow, affinity, ad nauseam, Storm, Tron, Dredge, and eldrazi strategies respectively and people with those decks built might quit out of frustration that their deck is now dead
More plausible then in my opinion would be hitting cards that leave these specific archetypes intact. Think Stinkweed Imp. Think Street Wraith.
It is my belief that there will be no archetype destroying bans. Wizards must have seen the backlash generated by the twin banning and realized that killing off an entire deck is not a good business model. That is why all three bans since then have only weakened decks, but otherwise kept them in tact:
Eye of Ugin - many forms of eldrazi are still alive and well in modern
Gitaxian Probe - infect is still here, death shadow of course still exists, storm is doing as well as ever
Grave Troll - we all know dredge is still around
So based on this I think their philosophy going forward is to not (purposely) kill off any decks. So no Deaths Shadow ban; no Mox Opal, Simian Spirit Guide, Grapeshot, Prized Amalgam, Tron lands, or eldrazi temple either as any of these either certainly would or might kill off Grixis Shadow, affinity, ad nauseam, Storm, Tron, Dredge, and eldrazi strategies respectively and people with those decks built might quit out of frustration that their deck is now dead
More plausible then in my opinion would be hitting cards that leave these specific archetypes intact. Think Stinkweed Imp. Think Street Wraith.
This is just my opinion of course
idk if dredge could survive an imp ban but I agree with your premise although I'd rather them bring cards into the format obviously.
I don't want a ban but I think something needs to be done about the fact the meta is so gy heavy. Ggt needed a ban because decks needed too much gy hate and here we are in almost an even worse spot.
It's not a problem if there are multiple decks that rely on the graveyard, though. It just becomes wise sideboarding. The problem with GGT Dredge was that it was the only upper tier deck that used the graveyard, so you had to pack 4 pieces of sideboard hate to have a chance against one deck.
So by that line of thought in just this short time ggt is now a safe card again.
Well, the GGT ban wasn't based on the sideboard issue alone, it was also because it's a type of strategy that WotC doesn't like being too good, and it was too good. Same as Storm. These are decks that are very difficult to interact with, although Storm is a little more fair these days. Besides that, the reason why Dredge was the only upper tier graveyard deck with GGT was that it was actually powerful enough to fight through the crazy amounts of graveyard hate that the meta was packing, while decks like the old versions of Storm, Living End, and Abzan Company were not. Now, we have Dredge getting a nerf and these other graveyard decks all getting slight buffs, so they're more on an even playing field. It's wise to have graveyard hate in your sideboard now, but you don't have to do things like playing narrow cards like Ravenous Trap to not auto-lose to Dredge.
Ok but my point is here you have the winning deck in a meta of gy decks with 2 relic main and 6 more yard hate cards in the board. Is that what they were hoping for when they banned GGT?
If I had to guess I think wotc might announce that they are invoking a procedure to allow cards they deem fit into formats where they might not be legal. For example a few random cards could really help standard and could maybe have stopped some of the bans. The same could possibly be said here for modern. Could you imagine if they just announced that (x) card is now legal in modern because we feel it might help handle problem (y) without us haveung to ban option (z).
That would be great, but I feel it's unlikely. A real world "patching" system like this would address a lot of problems that recent formats have had. I know Wizards has balked at approaches like this in the past due to "complexity," but that's an absurd excuse in the digital age where information is so readily available. Moreover, there are already Standard-legal cards that aren't in Standard sets (the planeswalker decks), and many Modern-bordered cards aren't legal in Modern (see basically every Commander and supplemental product that has been released since Modern's birth). I'd be all for this and I hope we see it one day.
It is not far from true. The deck is actually underplayed for how strong it is. I am not saying it is overwhelmingly strong but it is up there with DS and dredge when people do not respect it.
I do agree that Street Wraith has empowered the consistency of Death Shadow deck variants above all other decks, just like Gitaxian Probe in the past. Don't get me wrong, while I think Death Shadow is a fine unique card to exist, but the "zero mana" creature cantrip does too much for too little cost to allow Death Shadow to be played/grow earlier and enable delve for Angler and Tasigur. The recent price tag of Street Wraith indicates that the importance of the card in any Death Shadow decks.
It is not far from true. The deck is actually underplayed for how strong it is. I am not saying it is overwhelmingly strong but it is up there with DS and dredge when people do not respect it.
itcant be true 1 or 2 pages back it was stated ds grixis, ds jund, and da esper are the best decks with ds anything right behind it. My how quickly things change lol. Honestly though poor $goyf$ is just sitting there with what 3 decks in the top 30 this weekend?
What are the chances they add a new type of ban where they don't allow two different cards to be played in the same deck? For example, Stoneforge mystic is now unbanned, but cannot be included in the same deck as Batterskull. Or preordain is now unbanned, but can't be played alongside grapeshot etc.
It is not far from true. The deck is actually underplayed for how strong it is. I am not saying it is overwhelmingly strong but it is up there with DS and dredge when people do not respect it.
itcant be true 1 or 2 pages back it was stated ds grixis, ds jund, and da esper are the best decks with ds anything right behind it. My how quickly things change lol. Honestly though poor $goyf$ is just sitting there with what 3 decks in the top 30 this weekend?
I do not agree with the previous statement though even if the same person brought it up. In my opinion from what experienced and seen and opinions on people I trust the top decks are grixis ds, eldrazi tron, and dredge all being pretty even with shadow maybe being slightly better. After these company decks come in as the next step down in the power level ladder. I am sure if we had the modern protour back these 3 decks would see a huge amount of play and success.
Most recent lists also only run 3 Miracle spells, so it's not like the deck completely relies on that interaction.
So the most important things Modern control needs are better counterspells, cantrips and Jace.
We have Jace and 2 good cantrips on the banned list, so I guess it just needs some unbans and them printing a good counterspell. Although maybe it really needs a Brainstorm like effect to make Miracle cards somewhat playable, maybe a nerfed Brainstorm: draw 2 and put one on top of your library.
Ponder and Preordain are both actually nerfed Brainstorms, safe to say that if new one came into existence it would likely be banned promptly due to its auto inclusion in storm. We can't even get a card like Dream Cachelet alone anything better.
I don't think that counterspell or jace would really help Control in Modern because we would still lack the 100% crucial free counters which Legacy topless miracles runs as a playset in FoW and only runs 2-3 counterspells.
Really we would need something cheaper than counterspell because counterspell is pretty bad against aggro decks like the various types dominating the format currently. maybe a upgrade to remove soul like U: counter target creature or planeswalker card, you lose 2 life.
I assure you, any sort of mono U, (or Ux,) cmc 2 counter target (75-100% of modern played cards), (upside or nothing or a downside which doesn't break your kneecaps for one turn or more.) would be perfectly fine. U/x control in modern has lots of ways to deal with the 1 cmc stuff thrown at it. (PtE, Wall, and more.) CMC 1 Counters that aren't VERY easy to play around are probably too much for the format, considering how, as stated earlier, they would be significantly better than the cmc 1 discard which is currently everywhere. (Thoughtseize and Iok are #2 and #6 on the list of top ten modern cards atm. https://www.mtggoldfish.com/format-staples/modern)
Examples based on the above:
UU Counter Target Spell your opp may Scry 1
1U Counter Target Spell of CMC 2 or more
UW Exile Target Spell
Ok but my point is here you have the winning deck in a meta of gy decks with 2 relic main and 6 more yard hate cards in the board. Is that what they were hoping for when they banned GGT?
And my point is that with the GGT ban, the problem was that one single deck was occupying like 4 slots in everyone's sideboard. It's a problem if a single deck requires 4 sideboard slots that aren't really useful against anything else, it's not a problem if those 4 pieces hit like 5 or 6 of the upper tier decks.
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Modern UBR Grixis Shadow UBR UR Izzet Phoenix UR UW UW Control UW GB GB Rock GB
Commander BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
Most recent lists also only run 3 Miracle spells, so it's not like the deck completely relies on that interaction.
So the most important things Modern control needs are better counterspells, cantrips and Jace.
We have Jace and 2 good cantrips on the banned list, so I guess it just needs some unbans and them printing a good counterspell. Although maybe it really needs a Brainstorm like effect to make Miracle cards somewhat playable, maybe a nerfed Brainstorm: draw 2 and put one on top of your library.
Ponder and Preordain are both actually nerfed Brainstorms, safe to say that if new one came into existence it would likely be banned promptly due to its auto inclusion in storm. We can't even get a card like Dream Cachelet alone anything better.
I don't think that counterspell or jace would really help Control in Modern because we would still lack the 100% crucial free counters which Legacy topless miracles runs as a playset in FoW and only runs 2-3 counterspells.
Really we would need something cheaper than counterspell because counterspell is pretty bad against aggro decks like the various types dominating the format currently. maybe a upgrade to remove soul like U: counter target creature or planeswalker card, you lose 2 life.
I assure you, any sort of mono U, (or Ux,) cmc 2 counter target (75-100% of modern played cards), (upside or nothing or a downside which doesn't break your kneecaps for one turn or more.) would be perfectly fine. U/x control in modern has lots of ways to deal with the 1 cmc stuff thrown at it. (PtE, Wall, and more.) CMC 1 Counters that aren't VERY easy to play around are probably too much for the format, considering how, as stated earlier, they would be significantly better than the cmc 1 discard which is currently everywhere. (Thoughtseize and Iok are #2 and #6 on the list of top ten modern cards atm. https://www.mtggoldfish.com/format-staples/modern)
Examples based on the above:
UU Counter Target Spell your opp may Scry 1
1U Counter Target Spell of CMC 2 or more
UW Exile Target Spell
I don't think that they would be better than TS/IoK honestly
2 mana counters wouldn't be that strong because of the aforementioned 1 mana discard spells. What I was saying is that it is actually kinda slow in a format like modern and given the best deck is running 1 mana negates main deck along side their discard it probably would be more often than not removed from your hand and rendered useless.
Most 1 mana counters cannot really be played around easily but are simply hyper situational and can be irrelevant if not called for. Dispel for instance you can't really play around dispel if your looking to cast a instant and they have mana for it.
Boy people in this forum are some chicken little types, every event something new is falling out of the sky.
come back in 6 months to year with sustained results like this and then we can start considering perhaps a ban is needed.
I hate that people instantly jump to comparing things like Grixis Shadow to Twin and trying to build up a false equivalency between then. Twin was around for years and nothing WotC did to curb it worked so yes a ban was needed.
Glade that the results however bolster all of the statements I have been making about the meta-game
Grixis best of the DS decks because its better in the Mirror.
Pretty much everything else is either highly redundant or deck that can ignore TS/IoK(Eldrazitron dodges IoK and Push)
We do it because Wizards loves banning things. Compare the number of bans to unbans since the format's birth. See how they've tried to fix the Standard problem. See how many bans to unbans they've had in the past 2-3 years. On the one hand, I don't like ban mania and try to push back against it. On the other hand, when decks have actual datapoints which appear to line up with previous Wizards bans, people justifiably get nervous even if the deck doesn't feel like it should get banned.
It is pretty absurd to attempt to draw a comparison between a deck like Twin which literally had years of data to a singular event in which a deck put up great numbers. A single instance of a occurrence proves absolutely nothing.
I do disagree fundamentally with this notion that bannings cannot correct meta-games in a game like magic. While in general I am not for any cards being added to list or removed currently banning cards can fix certain types of issues in the meta-game. I don't think issues like "king of the hill" can be solved unless it is a clear singular card creating the outcomes, like Bloom was a great ban in this vein. While the banning of Bloom over all didn't "kill" the entire strategy it was so much better at what it does than any other option was able to achieve that it made the strategy much more over all easily dominated by fair.
I also don't think that unbanning any particular card would be very beneficial regarding the types of issues that people tend to express concern regarding. I am of the opinion that WotC needs to print better non-creature spells and in some instances perhaps creature spells to help raise specific strategies and color representation. Most anything people consider unbanning slots into a BGx mid-range shell better than it does anything to actually bolster its own color identities representation as the primary color of a deck.
This is by design and we need future design to correct it as the actual things needed to achieve say a primary Wxx or Uxx deck to be able to exist. They would still struggle with the reality that the plays available to them in the key turns in the format are seriously under powered when held in comparison to the options available in BG. This didn't occur by accident but was the out come of the entire format consisting of cards designed in a period intended to reorganize the game into one in which decks like the Rock are not piles of garbage.
The only other real option would be banning a absurd amount of cards until the format is watered down enough to achieve that balance. but again that would be absurd as it is generally no one's desired outcome.
Most recent lists also only run 3 Miracle spells, so it's not like the deck completely relies on that interaction.
So the most important things Modern control needs are better counterspells, cantrips and Jace.
We have Jace and 2 good cantrips on the banned list, so I guess it just needs some unbans and them printing a good counterspell. Although maybe it really needs a Brainstorm like effect to make Miracle cards somewhat playable, maybe a nerfed Brainstorm: draw 2 and put one on top of your library.
Ponder and Preordain are both actually nerfed Brainstorms, safe to say that if new one came into existence it would likely be banned promptly due to its auto inclusion in storm. We can't even get a card like Dream Cachelet alone anything better.
I don't think that counterspell or jace would really help Control in Modern because we would still lack the 100% crucial free counters which Legacy topless miracles runs as a playset in FoW and only runs 2-3 counterspells.
Really we would need something cheaper than counterspell because counterspell is pretty bad against aggro decks like the various types dominating the format currently. maybe a upgrade to remove soul like U: counter target creature or planeswalker card, you lose 2 life.
That card would be significantly better than TS
How so? It doesn't even stop someone from TSing it out your hand. It would likely be as good as Fatal Push but imo push would still be better as it can actually deal with a resolved creature.
And this is my main point about players rejecting anything that would actually elevate other colors to be on par with Black in regards to control.
Did some maths, as I was curious about how egregious a 20% day2 to 50% top8 conversion rate was.
In a day 2 with 66 total players and 13 on Grixis DS, the probability of exactly 4 Grixis DS in top8 is 3.65%, while the probability of 4 or more Grixis DS in top 8 is 4.21%.
We've got a very busy week ahead of us, Moderners. In case you haven't seen, announcement week is coming. A couple of things to note.
1) Tomorrow, we will find out about the changes to set design. This could impact how we get reprints, the power level of cards, and ultimately the future of cards entering Modern.
2) The ban list announcement has been moved forward a day and is now scheduled for Tuesday.
3) Wednesday is the traditional Announcement Day: new products, which means potential reprints.
4) Thursday brings Organized Play announcements. We don't know what this means, but it could impact what the formats of future Pro Tours and Grand Prix events will be.
The reason I am posting this here is I understand that some of you may be nervous about these announcements and what they could possibly mean for Modern. Maybe some are nervous about Thursday and whether or not Modern gets less major events. Perhaps the set changes worry you and what the quality of cards and reprints we will get in the future. Ban list updates are also never pleasant for any Modern player. No matter what concerns you, understand that State of the Meta is meant to be a home for productive discussion. In the coming week, remember that your posts must reflect this purpose, and that emotions will run high. There are users who may be nervous or even scared of what this week will bring, so please keep in mind that if your post is not being productive, is not polite, or is attempting to provoke users who have been affected by a change, you need to rethink what you are posting and why. Remember, we all want what we believe is best for Modern -- this week may bring about something that some people see as a step in the wrong direction, and the right direction for others. We've got a lot of uncertainty ahead of us, and while some are comfortable with that, others may not. Please try to understand another user's perspective; that alone will make this week a lot easier for this thread.
Carry on Moderners! --CavalryWolfPack
P.S. This post is not being made out of the current state of the thread. It is not a group warning -- it is a general PSA about what the state of this thread could be in the near future.
"Professor CavalryWolfPack, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our users to crack each others' heads open and feast on the goo inside?"
We've got a very busy week ahead of us, Moderners. In case you haven't seen, announcement week is coming. A couple of things to note.
1) Tomorrow, we will find out about the changes to set design. This could impact how we get reprints, the power level of cards, and ultimately the future of cards entering Modern.
2) The ban list announcement has been moved forward a day and is now scheduled for Tuesday.
3) Wednesday is the traditional Announcement Day: new products, which means potential reprints.
4) Thursday brings Organized Play announcements. We don't know what this means, but it could impact what the formats of future Pro Tours and Grand Prix events will be.
The reason I am posting this here is I understand that some of you may be nervous about these announcements and what they could possibly mean for Modern. Maybe some are nervous about Thursday and whether or not Modern gets less major events. Perhaps the set changes worry you and what the quality of cards and reprints we will get in the future. Ban list updates are also never pleasant for any Modern player. No matter what concerns you, understand that State of the Meta is meant to be a home for productive discussion. In the coming week, remember that your posts must reflect this purpose, and that emotions will run high. There are users who may be nervous or even scared of what this week will bring, so please keep in mind that if your post is not being productive, is not polite, or is attempting to provoke users who have been affected by a change, you need to rethink what you are posting and why. Remember, we all want what we believe is best for Modern -- this week may bring about something that some people see as a step in the wrong direction, and the right direction for others. We've got a lot of uncertainty ahead of us, and while some are comfortable with that, others may not. Please try to understand another user's perspective; that alone will make this week a lot easier for this thread.
Carry on Moderners! --CavalryWolfPack
P.S. This post is not being made out of the current state of the thread. It is not a group warning -- it is a general PSA about what the state of this thread could be in the near future.
"Professor CavalryWolfPack, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our users to crack each others' heads open and feast on the goo inside?"
"Yes I would Seymour."
Looking forward to this week of announcements. Fingers crossed for good news on core sets/3 sets in a block model and for non-standard formats I'd love wotc to find another way of adding cards to those formats. Zero bannings should always be their (unachievable) aim.
I don't want a ban but I think something needs to be done about the fact the meta is so gy heavy. Ggt needed a ban because decks needed too much gy hate and here we are in almost an even worse spot.
That's on the players to fix. Modern has the best graveyard hate in the game. Two Surgical Extraction, one Nihil Spellbomb, and a Grafdigger's Cage isn't enough. The hate is too spread out and not focussed. When I see just 2 Leyline of the Void in a sideboard instead of 4, that drives me nuts. Take this 24th placing deck from SCG this weekend:
That is some weak sauce when it comes to graveyard hate. Until players start running enough serious graveyard hate to give a tournament a "herd immunity" to graveyard shenanigans, players will continue to abuse it. I'm glad to see the Tron decks starting to maindeck Relic of Progenitus. That's a good start.
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WoTC, thank you for finally announcing the Modern format, an eternal format where everyone can participate.
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1) Tomorrow, we will find out about the changes to set design. This could impact how we get reprints, the power level of cards, and ultimately the future of cards entering Modern.
2) The ban list announcement has been moved forward a day and is now scheduled for Tuesday.
3) Wednesday is the traditional Announcement Day: new products, which means potential reprints.
4) Thursday brings Organized Play announcements. We don't know what this means, but it could impact what the formats of future Pro Tours and Grand Prix events will be.
The reason I am posting this here is I understand that some of you may be nervous about these announcements and what they could possibly mean for Modern. Maybe some are nervous about Thursday and whether or not Modern gets less major events. Perhaps the set changes worry you and what the quality of cards and reprints we will get in the future. Ban list updates are also never pleasant for any Modern player. No matter what concerns you, understand that State of the Meta is meant to be a home for productive discussion. In the coming week, remember that your posts must reflect this purpose, and that emotions will run high. There are users who may be nervous or even scared of what this week will bring, so please keep in mind that if your post is not being productive, is not polite, or is attempting to provoke users who have been affected by a change, you need to rethink what you are posting and why. Remember, we all want what we believe is best for Modern -- this week may bring about something that some people see as a step in the wrong direction, and the right direction for others. We've got a lot of uncertainty ahead of us, and while some are comfortable with that, others may not. Please try to understand another user's perspective; that alone will make this week a lot easier for this thread.
Carry on Moderners! --CavalryWolfPack
P.S. This post is not being made out of the current state of the thread. It is not a group warning -- it is a general PSA about what the state of this thread could be in the near future.
We know URx Twin's 19% GP/PT Top8 spots were ban worthy, so that's the baseline. With 8 2017 Modern GPs (or 10 if they count Unified Modern GPs), the total Top8 spots are 64 (or 88) and the red flag for any deck would be 12 (or 17) GP Top8s this year. So far, we have:
- 4- Dredge
- 3 - Affinity, Jund Shadow
- 2 - Abzan Company, Grixis Shadow, Lantern Control, Living End
So, all decks are currently safe from the diveristy ban. With 4 GPs left, the top performer would need 2 Top8s a GP to reach Twin's level, which seems highly unlikely. If we take all Shadow decks together, we have 6 so far (3 Jund, 2 Grixis, 1 Tribal Zoo). Not ban worthy either and they would need to average 1.5 Top8s to reach Twin's success level at the GP level, which doesn't seem impossible.The same analysis if they take into account the Unified Modern GPs, just in case:
- 5 - Affinity, Jund Shadow
- 4 - Dredge
- 2 - Abzan Company, Bant Company, Eldrazi Tron, Grixis Shadow, Lantern Control, Living End
Again, all decks should be safe from the diversity ban, for now. With 5 GPs left, the top performers would need to average 2.4 Top8s each GP to reach Twin's level, which seems unlikely. If you group all Shadow decks you get 9, still 8 spots away from 17, but more likely at 1.6 average.That being said, does anyone have any hard numbers on Storm's pre turn 4 win percentage?
As for unbans, I think Stoneforge it's the most likely option, but I wouldn't get my hopes high at all
Frontier: UBR Grixis Control | BRG Jund Delirium
I don't know the percentage, but I feel as long as the top deck in the format has 6-8 discard spells to go with creature removal, Storm should be safe. If that were to change later on, something could happen possibly in the future.
Premodern - Trix, RecSur, Enchantress, Reanimator, Elves https://www.facebook.com/groups/PremodernUSA/
Modern - Neobrand, Hogaak Vine, Elves
Standard - Mono Red (6-2 and 5-3 in 2 McQ)
Draft - (I wish I had more time for limited...)
Commander -
Norin the Wary, Grimgrin, Adun Oakenshield (taking forever to build)(dead format for me)Eye of Ugin - many forms of eldrazi are still alive and well in modern
Gitaxian Probe - infect is still here, death shadow of course still exists, storm is doing as well as ever
Grave Troll - we all know dredge is still around
So based on this I think their philosophy going forward is to not (purposely) kill off any decks. So no Deaths Shadow ban; no Mox Opal, Simian Spirit Guide, Grapeshot, Prized Amalgam, Tron lands, or eldrazi temple either as any of these either certainly would or might kill off Grixis Shadow, affinity, ad nauseam, Storm, Tron, Dredge, and eldrazi strategies respectively and people with those decks built might quit out of frustration that their deck is now dead
More plausible then in my opinion would be hitting cards that leave these specific archetypes intact. Think Stinkweed Imp. Think Street Wraith.
This is just my opinion of course
Ok but my point is here you have the winning deck in a meta of gy decks with 2 relic main and 6 more yard hate cards in the board. Is that what they were hoping for when they banned GGT?
That would be great, but I feel it's unlikely. A real world "patching" system like this would address a lot of problems that recent formats have had. I know Wizards has balked at approaches like this in the past due to "complexity," but that's an absurd excuse in the digital age where information is so readily available. Moreover, there are already Standard-legal cards that aren't in Standard sets (the planeswalker decks), and many Modern-bordered cards aren't legal in Modern (see basically every Commander and supplemental product that has been released since Modern's birth). I'd be all for this and I hope we see it one day.
It is not far from true. The deck is actually underplayed for how strong it is. I am not saying it is overwhelmingly strong but it is up there with DS and dredge when people do not respect it.
Would this convolute the banned list too much?
I do not agree with the previous statement though even if the same person brought it up. In my opinion from what experienced and seen and opinions on people I trust the top decks are grixis ds, eldrazi tron, and dredge all being pretty even with shadow maybe being slightly better. After these company decks come in as the next step down in the power level ladder. I am sure if we had the modern protour back these 3 decks would see a huge amount of play and success.
Whenever else, it's... not as much.
I assure you, any sort of mono U, (or Ux,) cmc 2 counter target (75-100% of modern played cards), (upside or nothing or a downside which doesn't break your kneecaps for one turn or more.) would be perfectly fine. U/x control in modern has lots of ways to deal with the 1 cmc stuff thrown at it. (PtE, Wall, and more.) CMC 1 Counters that aren't VERY easy to play around are probably too much for the format, considering how, as stated earlier, they would be significantly better than the cmc 1 discard which is currently everywhere. (Thoughtseize and Iok are #2 and #6 on the list of top ten modern cards atm. https://www.mtggoldfish.com/format-staples/modern)
Examples based on the above:
UU Counter Target Spell your opp may Scry 1
1U Counter Target Spell of CMC 2 or more
UW Exile Target Spell
UBR Grixis Shadow UBR
UR Izzet Phoenix UR
UW UW Control UW
GB GB Rock GB
Commander
BG Meren of Clan Nel Toth BG
BGUW Atraxa, Praetor's Voice BGUW
I don't think that they would be better than TS/IoK honestly
2 mana counters wouldn't be that strong because of the aforementioned 1 mana discard spells. What I was saying is that it is actually kinda slow in a format like modern and given the best deck is running 1 mana negates main deck along side their discard it probably would be more often than not removed from your hand and rendered useless.
Most 1 mana counters cannot really be played around easily but are simply hyper situational and can be irrelevant if not called for. Dispel for instance you can't really play around dispel if your looking to cast a instant and they have mana for it.
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
It might even be worth it at that point; I'll just play JVP instead and run Bant Turns! CHOO CHOO
It is pretty absurd to attempt to draw a comparison between a deck like Twin which literally had years of data to a singular event in which a deck put up great numbers. A single instance of a occurrence proves absolutely nothing.
I do disagree fundamentally with this notion that bannings cannot correct meta-games in a game like magic. While in general I am not for any cards being added to list or removed currently banning cards can fix certain types of issues in the meta-game. I don't think issues like "king of the hill" can be solved unless it is a clear singular card creating the outcomes, like Bloom was a great ban in this vein. While the banning of Bloom over all didn't "kill" the entire strategy it was so much better at what it does than any other option was able to achieve that it made the strategy much more over all easily dominated by fair.
I also don't think that unbanning any particular card would be very beneficial regarding the types of issues that people tend to express concern regarding. I am of the opinion that WotC needs to print better non-creature spells and in some instances perhaps creature spells to help raise specific strategies and color representation. Most anything people consider unbanning slots into a BGx mid-range shell better than it does anything to actually bolster its own color identities representation as the primary color of a deck.
This is by design and we need future design to correct it as the actual things needed to achieve say a primary Wxx or Uxx deck to be able to exist. They would still struggle with the reality that the plays available to them in the key turns in the format are seriously under powered when held in comparison to the options available in BG. This didn't occur by accident but was the out come of the entire format consisting of cards designed in a period intended to reorganize the game into one in which decks like the Rock are not piles of garbage.
The only other real option would be banning a absurd amount of cards until the format is watered down enough to achieve that balance. but again that would be absurd as it is generally no one's desired outcome.
How so? It doesn't even stop someone from TSing it out your hand. It would likely be as good as Fatal Push but imo push would still be better as it can actually deal with a resolved creature.
And this is my main point about players rejecting anything that would actually elevate other colors to be on par with Black in regards to control.
In a day 2 with 66 total players and 13 on Grixis DS, the probability of exactly 4 Grixis DS in top8 is 3.65%, while the probability of 4 or more Grixis DS in top 8 is 4.21%.
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
"Yes I would Seymour."
Looking forward to this week of announcements. Fingers crossed for good news on core sets/3 sets in a block model and for non-standard formats I'd love wotc to find another way of adding cards to those formats. Zero bannings should always be their (unachievable) aim.
That's on the players to fix. Modern has the best graveyard hate in the game. Two Surgical Extraction, one Nihil Spellbomb, and a Grafdigger's Cage isn't enough. The hate is too spread out and not focussed. When I see just 2 Leyline of the Void in a sideboard instead of 4, that drives me nuts. Take this 24th placing deck from SCG this weekend:
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=114107
That is some weak sauce when it comes to graveyard hate. Until players start running enough serious graveyard hate to give a tournament a "herd immunity" to graveyard shenanigans, players will continue to abuse it. I'm glad to see the Tron decks starting to maindeck Relic of Progenitus. That's a good start.