So....anyone for a Goyf ban now? Perhaps this new Death's Shadow deck is finally what breaks it
On what grounds? Goyf has been fine for the format since its inception. Even if Death's Shadow Aggro ended up needing a piece banned, why would they ban Tarmogoyf and neuter almost every green aggro and midrange deck in the format instead of Death's Shadow, which would deal with DSA without obliterating tons of other decks?
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
Despite my comments, in no way I believe we need to think of bans or anything like that at the moment. But I do believe this is the greatest "challenge" the Modern format has had since the Eldrazi Winter.
So we'll see what happens.
I agree with the challenge concept. This is the time where Wotc decides to keep banning stuff invevitably, or decides to incept a police card/deck into the format.
EDIT: Could this new Death's Shadow deck be the new sheriff in town and police the format?
Despite my comments, in no way I believe we need to think of bans or anything like that at the moment. But I do believe this is the greatest "challenge" the Modern format has had since the Eldrazi Winter.
So we'll see what happens.
Agreed. I'm wondering what decks might have favorable matchups vs. DSA. It seems far too fast, resilient, and disruptive for control decks to keep in check, and also too fast for combo and big-mana decks. Possibly Fish and/or Elves landwalking past their blockers to attack their fragile life totals? Burn to punish the self-inflicted wounds?
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I've been watching GHash77's stream a lot and talking with the boys there, analyzing the data he has. Also, I've played it myself on stream on their insistence. The only real bad matchup it has is Abzan among most common decks. The rest is literally a collection of 60-70% winrate matchups and a couple 50-something ones. It straight murders Burn. Talking 70% winrate here. Even I myself, with zero experience, have been able to crush it quite easily in the matches I had. Key is, remember how old DSZ had a bad Burn matchup, but it wasn't atrocious because how effective DS itself is against it? Well, this version plays twice as many Death's Shadows, a lot more disruption and a lot more removal. So it's very easy to just engineer every game vs Burn, with perfect information, to them just dying to a Shadow with no way to stop it.
Last league I played with it, only match I lost was vs Elves, as you said. I had no sweepers and they just crushed me. The player that gave me the list told me that well, yeah, "Elves are bad without anything for them out of the SB but it's not a common deck so w/e". So that's another bad matchup that I know of.
w00t! Sylvan police assemble!
I guess DSA isn't one of those decks that can just run 4 Chalice of the Void at any rate.
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DSA is not really a problem to fix with bans. The deck is pretty much a pile of good stuff. This seems like a color issue. The other colors need stuff to be on par with gb. Blue needs a wincon that is not too slow and works well with the colors strengths while white just needs better cards and not just be the splash for path and sideboard color. Red is strong due to bolt and aggressive shells but the gb color combo just has way more individually strong cards to play an actual game of magic. The inclusion of deaths shadow and delirium cards in the deck just made gbx decks have a critical mass of big efficient beats backed up by proactive interaction.
If we had zero counters under 3 mana I would agree. But there are.
And they're not good enough.
Its all about meta gaming and having what you need in your 75. We know catch all counters under 3 mana are not there or not going to be printed unless Wotc changes its thinking. Dont forget, Mana Leak is too strong for Standard according to Wotc. I cant see anyhing more powerful or more flexible coming any time soon.
And hopefully they will have changed their thinking after their "great threats, bad answers" philosophy has bitten them back hard.
Though I should point out that I believe the "Mana Leak is too powerful for Standard" (which it is absolutely not) idea, as far as I can tell, comes from this article which is from 2012 and the author doesn't work at the company anymore.
And JACE, SFM, and GSZ having a grave in Modern is from about the same time and we have not see any change in Wotc's thinking. Until I see something that shows they have changed their thinking or they unban/reprint something they have said isnt going to be, I dont worry about them.
Quote from xxhellfirexx3 »
fair argument in regards to reprints, however that still does not change the fact that control needs help in this format and so does blue. what constructive suggestions do you have in regard to this?
Meta game better. Have an idea of what you are going to face, play the counters that stop those threats. Playing against big mana, play deprive. Playing against fast creature based decks, play Mana Leak or Mana Tithe. If you are playing pump decks that rely on spells play spell pierce or Mana Leak.
I agree with Wotc there shouldnt be a catch all card that can be played against all decks. Meta gaming is part of the game.
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I mean you're not wrong, but doing nothing is pretty sad. I still think preordain is fine in this format and that if we are going to tune blue into the format, we need to do it slowly. But "doing nothing" and hoping it gets better for blue decks won't force people to quit modern and go into standard like WOTC would probably like (considering how much a dumpster fire standard is atm). It would probably lead to people selling off their stuff and quitting the game all together which is definitely worse for wizards. Like it or not, the control decks do need a boost. I don't advocate twin, I think it's fine to keep off because that deck didn't create a control deck either.
But something has to be done if they can't crack a big finish. Snapcaster is an insane card but it isn't enough. On the subject of Jace, I have a foil from ww and even though I think that it would be fine in modern, I don't advocate its unban until we try preordain and sfm first. Mainly because even though the value of that card would skyrocket and I would benefit greatly I think it would have to be in MM2017 and other sets to be able to unban considering price. That sucks to say but it's the reality because you would NEED jtms. We would see a goyf-like price spike and would push players even further out.
Few things.
1) This weekend meant very little in the bigger picture. As was mentioned by the announcer on Saturday, an event where 1500 people came to play and you could play somewhere around 50 different decks and do decent isnt going to tell much about the format as a whole. There are so many other things involved then deck choice in an event like this, it annoys me so many put so much on it.
2) You are assuming Wotc feels the same as the player base does about the format and the meta game. We have seen in the past that Wotc sees things much different then the player base does.
3) As I mentioned above, people need to meta game better for Modern. There are the tools to combat each and every deck blue decks will face, its just they need to change out their counters depending on what they are playing. There is no catch all reactive cards (counter)that are good against all decks. Wotc doesnt feel there should be or they have not in the recent past. Could that change? Sure. But until it does and Wotc shows us they have had a change of heart, we have to do with what we got.
1) This weekend meant very little in the bigger picture. As was mentioned by the announcer on Saturday, an event where 1500 people came to play and you could play somewhere around 50 different decks and do decent isnt going to tell much about the format as a whole. There are so many other things involved then deck choice in an event like this, it annoys me so many put so much on it.
I think you are grossly misrepresenting what these events mean. They set the bar for the decks to beat; the best decks in the format (especially when combined with MTGO top decks).. And yes, while the middle and bottom half of the FNM tables are filled with wacky brews, the top tables are ALWAYS a collection of these top tier decks to beat. People who want to win play the best decks, and if you want to do well at a local level, you have to beat all the weird random crap people bring to the low tables AND the fierce and relentless power seen at the top tables. If you've got a reactive Snapcaster deck that can do that, I'm all ears. But this past weekend showed that, yet again, blue doesn't have the chops to both avoid losing to jank AND hang with the big boys. So as long as you don't care about winning, then sure, blue is doing fine. But even at the FNM level, the stuff is just trash more often than not.
You know, DSA's results at GP Vancouver are making me think that Preordain really would do a lot of good right now. With all its undercoated beaters and discard, it seems like slowing it down is a matter of top decking the right answer at the right time. Preordain makes you three times as likely to topdeck that answer compared to Serum Visions. I don't think we should underestimate that.
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WUBRG Humans BRW Mardu Pyromancer UW UW "Control" UR Blue Moon
You know, DSA's results at GP Vancouver are making me think that Preordain really would do a lot of good right now. With all its undercoated beaters and discard, it seems like slowing it down is a matter of top decking the right answer at the right time. Preordain makes you three times as likely to topdeck that answer compared to Serum Visions. I don't think we should underestimate that.
I think it is kind of a joke that preordain is banned while green has two 1 mana search spells. That is the world we live in though due to combo possibly abusing good cantrips.
Reactive blue players: in your opinion, what is the problem with your decks? And don't just say "we don't have Twin." Let's see if we can dig a little deeper. Is it an inability to close out games quickly? An inability to find answers? Weak answers? All of the above and, if so, what extent for each explanation?
I personally love a Preordain unban, but it means Twin is even less likely to come off the list and Preordain will definitely help Cheeri0s and Storm (less worryingly, Ad Nauseam too). I also like a JTMS unban, but if the problem is a lack of answers or a lack of early game consistency, JTMS doesn't solve that. I see arguments for and against both of these unbans, as well as SFM and Twin, but am not sure what the best option is.
100%, its gotta be lack of reasonable finishing speed to me. There are plenty of ways to craft a Grixis or Esper deck to answer the threats of the meta, the problem is to me, you then lack any reasonable way to shut the door.
They mentioned this exactly on the coverage near the end of the tournament tonight. Many many modern decks are viable, because there are MANY ways to just close the game out.
Lack of finishing speed and a lack of card selection, in my opinion. You need to be able to find answers as well as threats and the threats need to be decent, rather than something like White Sun's Zenith, for all that I love the card.
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Well, I can saw a woman in two, but you won't wanna look in the box when I'm through.
Reactive blue players: in your opinion, what is the problem with your decks? And don't just say "we don't have Twin." Let's see if we can dig a little deeper. Is it an inability to close out games quickly? An inability to find answers? Weak answers? All of the above and, if so, what extent for each explanation?
It's a combination of the three. Our answers are extremely narrow, either in application or in the time window they are effective. For example, Dispel, Negate, and Spell Snare are efficient, but extremely narrow. Remand, Mana Leak, and Spell Pierce become almost irrelevant as the game continues (with the added downside of Pierce being narrow). Cryptic Command is amazing, but it's also 4 mana and UUU. That's a huge restriction in a "turn 4 format." Blue does not deal with permanents very well, so if we can't counter something, we are forced into other colors. If we are going into some other set of colors, there are usually just better decks that play those cards than anything blue can do because of the third weakness: threats. The scariest thing blue decks can do is the equivalent of a Tarmogoyf that requires multiple cards to setup (Tasigur). We present little to no early pressure and our threats are often very fragile (Delver/Pyromancer/Clique, etc). It's not just the lack of closing speed, but it's the fact that the win conditions are all incredibly fair. It's a creature or creature land that either has summoning sickness or a big activation cost. This simply doesn't cut it most of the time when opponents are playing things like Karn, Primeval Titan, or 1 mana 11/11s. Finally, also have poor ways to find our answers or threats. Serum Visions is laughably bad and it's even worse when compared to the kinds of deck manipulation, digging, and cheating green has access too. But honestly, short of Dig Through Time or Brainstorm, no cantrip is going to help solve the massive shortcomings in problems 1 and 2. The narrow answers HAVE to line up perfect, or you lose. The soft answers may or may not actually answer anything. The threats are fairly easily taken care of most of the time, and often very slow to win. The reason I keep harping back to Twin is that it solves the problems of answers and closing speed while not needing any additional cantriping. It's a win condition that, in of itself, acts as a deterrent for players playing decks blue often struggles with. Blue is clearly incapable of keeping up with the lunacy that happens in Modern, but it forced players to play more carefully "just in case" or risk getting blown out by a combo. This means opponents would hold things back and not over-extend. Who is doing that today with Grixis? Jeskai? Esper? No, it's "here's what I've got. Now YOU deal with it." And often, we can't. Or we can't deal with it ENOUGH in order for our slow and/or fragile win conditions to get there.
I personally love a Preordain unban, but it means Twin is even less likely to come off the list and Preordain will definitely help Cheeri0s and Storm (less worryingly, Ad Nauseam too). I also like a JTMS unban, but if the problem is a lack of answers or a lack of early game consistency, JTMS doesn't solve that. I see arguments for and against both of these unbans, as well as SFM and Twin, but am not sure what the best option is.
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I think Preordain would be a great addition to Delver, but with Push wrecking the deck as it is, and with regular Grixis Control stuck on having to win on Tasigur beats alone most of the time, Preordain really doesn't do anything to help those decks. I haven't played with SFM enough to make an informed decision on how it would specifically help BLUE. While I know I would definitely try to play it, I have to concede that an Abzan home is probably best for it.
I can try to elaborate more later, if needed. Been a long day and just trying to get thoughts out. I've probably written something similar more eloquently before.
1) This weekend meant very little in the bigger picture. As was mentioned by the announcer on Saturday, an event where 1500 people came to play and you could play somewhere around 50 different decks and do decent isnt going to tell much about the format as a whole. There are so many other things involved then deck choice in an event like this, it annoys me so many put so much on it.
I think you are grossly misrepresenting what these events mean. They set the bar for the decks to beat; the best decks in the format (especially when combined with MTGO top decks).. And yes, while the middle and bottom half of the FNM tables are filled with wacky brews, the top tables are ALWAYS a collection of these top tier decks to beat. People who want to win play the best decks, and if you want to do well at a local level, you have to beat all the weird random crap people bring to the low tables AND the fierce and relentless power seen at the top tables. If you've got a reactive Snapcaster deck that can do that, I'm all ears. But this past weekend showed that, yet again, blue doesn't have the chops to both avoid losing to jank AND hang with the big boys. So as long as you don't care about winning, then sure, blue is doing fine. But even at the FNM level, the stuff is just trash more often than not.
I disagree to a large extent with these large 1500 player events meaning much. Like I mentioned, there are many other factors that determine if a deck makes it to the top of the standings. Byes being huge. Skirting bad match ups or running into bad match ups round after round. Fatigue.
Like I sad above, blue mages have to meta game now. In the past they just had catch all reactive spells and they could go up against anything and have a shot. Modern is different. If you are going to a Modern event you have to really plan on what you are going to see and tweak your 75 accordingly. If you are going to see fast aggro, non interactive builds mana leak and spells like mana tithe(mana tithing someone changes the whole way they play their deck) should help a lot. If you are going to be playing ramp or some kind of spell based deck, spell pierce and spells like that should slow them down enough to get to your borad wipes and the like. If you expect to be seeing Cavern of souls a lot you need to slip in a play set of ghost quarters or a tect edge or 2, maybe Fullmanator. Playing reactive blue really is built once you know what you are playing against. Its almost impossible to build a reactive blue based deck in an event the size of this was. Please dont say Twin never had those probelms, because Twin made the whole format play different. You could not tap out on turn 3 on the play and let a Twin player have the ability to slam the win turn 4.
I personally have no problem being in the money locally playing Ux decks when I know for the most part what I will face. That is events with 20-40 players most playing decks you see in deck forums on this site. Dredge, Jund, Eldrazi, D&T. Its also why I didnt have a problem with the Eldrazi winter. There was only a handful playing the deck. I knew who and I knew what i needed in my 75 to make the top of the standing.
Its 2017, Ux reactive, catch all decks with very few bad match ups are in the days of past. Wotc has made it pretty clear they dont want decks like that in the format.
It's a combination of the three. Our answers are extremely narrow, either in application or in the time window they are effective. For example, Dispel, Negate, and Spell Snare are efficient, but extremely narrow. Remand, Mana Leak, and Spell Pierce become almost irrelevant as the game continues (with the added downside of Pierce being narrow). Cryptic Command is amazing,
The way I look at it, you use those narrow lesser counters to slow them down to get to the amazing Cryptic Commands. Once you hit 4 mana, your blue deck should be in position to deal with the game.
I was perusing the SCG results and saw Jeskai Control (or is it better called flash/Midrange) took first place. While not pushing the table one way or the other it does appear Blue can still be competitive, at least on that level.
Reactive blue players: in your opinion, what is the problem with your decks? And don't just say "we don't have Twin." Let's see if we can dig a little deeper. Is it an inability to close out games quickly? An inability to find answers? Weak answers? All of the above and, if so, what extent for each explanation?
I personally love a Preordain unban, but it means Twin is even less likely to come off the list and Preordain will definitely help Cheeri0s and Storm (less worryingly, Ad Nauseam too). I also like a JTMS unban, but if the problem is a lack of answers or a lack of early game consistency, JTMS doesn't solve that. I see arguments for and against both of these unbans, as well as SFM and Twin, but am not sure what the best option is.
The biggest problem is that it is difficult to find instant-win cards early enough in the game. Those cards definitely do exist. Madcap Experiment, Gifts Ungiven, and even Nahiri, the Harbinger all end the game extremely quickly when played on curve. Most decks other than BGx Midrange and Tron have few answers to a turn 4 Platinum Emperion, a turn 5 Blazing Archon, Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, or Iona, Shield of Emeria, or a turn 6 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and all of them instantly stabilize or win the game. However, with Serum Visions being the only decent cantrip, it is difficult to ensure that a wincon will be found in time to play it on curve, which opens up a window that allows Control players to lose to aggro and combo decks. If Preordain is unbanned, Combo/Control decks should be able to do well in Modern. Traditional pure Control decks likely will never do well in Modern though.
No people complain about MTGO(specifically the interface for client and how miserable it is) all the time and your criticism didn't seem any less sincere if just slightly exaggerated. Like saying I would rather be punched in the face than go to the dentist, obviously a exaggeration but not disqualifying of the displeasure of going to the dentist. Not a very good joke obviously.
Reactive blue players: in your opinion, what is the problem with your decks? And don't just say "we don't have Twin." Let's see if we can dig a little deeper. Is it an inability to close out games quickly? An inability to find answers? Weak answers? All of the above and, if so, what extent for each explanation?
I personally love a Preordain unban, but it means Twin is even less likely to come off the list and Preordain will definitely help Cheeri0s and Storm (less worryingly, Ad Nauseam too). I also like a JTMS unban, but if the problem is a lack of answers or a lack of early game consistency, JTMS doesn't solve that. I see arguments for and against both of these unbans, as well as SFM and Twin, but am not sure what the best option is.
I would say it is the first 2. The answers are good enough except for the later game reliability (mana leak, and logic knot could be counterspell). It is ok for blue answers to be a little situational because countering something is inherently stronger than discard and remlval because you get to trade mana unlike discard and you stop spells and etb abilities unlike removal. Cards like spell snare are good situational but powerful answers. This leads to why closing speed is important. Having situational answers means that you cannot answer everything forever and even with unconditional answers that has always been true in formats outside of standard. David Price said that every threat is a threat but an answer can be the wrong answer which has always been true and which is why blue decks have been combocontrol or prisoncontrol decks throughout most of the games history. Twin is the only card in the modern card pool that fixes this problem though unless something close to being a good compact and strong wincon comes along.
Blue can use some better cantrips to find answers easier but that is risky since it will power combo up in a forceless format and I rather not have modern become force vs combo. I honestly think here it is possible to reduce the consistency of other decks. Although many may not agree I would advocate for a Traverse and ancient stirrings ban.
Blue can use some better cantrips to find answers easier but that is risky since it will power combo up in a forceless format and I rather not have modern become force vs combo. I honestly think here it is possible to reduce the consistency of other decks. Although many may not agree I would advocate for a Traverse and ancient stirrings ban.
This is almost certainly the wrong approach. BANS DON'T WORK AT SHAPING FORMATS. Legacy self-regulates without bans. Old Standard self-regulated without bans for years. Modern gets Probe and GGT banned and then Death's Shadow Jund and Dredge win the two weekend GP. Wizards banned Twin and said new reactive blue decks would emerge and then they didn't. Wizards banned BBE to nerf Jund and then had to ban DRS a year later. Standard post bans is, well, a horrible trainwreck. We do not need more bans. Bans always have unforeseen consequences for shaping formats and they are frequently very negative. For every effective Modern ban we can point to, we can point to an equally ineffective one. It's particularly laughable when those bans include a suggestion about banning Traverse (!?) after a single GP that showcased its strength.
If Preordain is off the table because it powers up unfair decks, look to JTMS, SFM, and/or Twin. JTMS only goes in a certain kind of blue deck that, incidentally, is not doing very well now. SFM is broader but goes in very few of the top-tier decks right now (Abzan being a big exception). Twin goes in Twin. These are the cards to look to if you are worried about blue having Preordain, not banning other consistency tools so the format is even more swingy and even more ill-defined by bad bans.
I think it's wrong, critically to say blue players just 'need to meta' when they do, the answer is don't play blue!
I find it interesting that SCG events have these blue decks that win, why would that be? Sultai won an SCG event too, was it not?
Is it size, level of play? Gotta wonder why.
Its because players on that circuit tend to play the same deck or deck type week in and week out. Everyone knows certain players play certain decks in SCG events. Knowing the region and what top players are going to play, its easier to meta game for their events. Those that win week in and week out have tweaked 75 for those events.
I heard a lot of people complain that they cant win with the decks that top in SCG events in their own metas.
Quote from ktkenshinx »
BANS DON'T WORK AT SHAPING FORMATS
I would say they dont work for some. It all depends on what you want out of the format. The meta has changed every time they have banned a card in the format.
Legacy self-regulates without bans.
I would agree, but Legacy has a ban list. Modern doesnt have the policing cards that Legacy has. Personally I dont wish for those policing cards to be in Modern either because it would make the format something it isnt now. Larger card pool and more policing cards in a format that is suppose to be a full turn faster then Modern. Hard to compare.
Old Standard self-regulated without bans for years
Much smaller card pool and a format the cards are designed for, also rotating. Not a good comparison.
Only other point I would like to comment on is ..
Wizards banned Twin and said new reactive blue decks would emerge and then they didn't.
Yes it did. Gave birth to a couple Ux reactive decks. They may not be T1 but they are playable and in some cases a solid meta call.
I personally would like to go a year with no changes and let the format settle a little before doing anything.
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Spirits
On what grounds? Goyf has been fine for the format since its inception. Even if Death's Shadow Aggro ended up needing a piece banned, why would they ban Tarmogoyf and neuter almost every green aggro and midrange deck in the format instead of Death's Shadow, which would deal with DSA without obliterating tons of other decks?
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
I agree with the challenge concept. This is the time where Wotc decides to keep banning stuff invevitably, or decides to incept a police card/deck into the format.
EDIT: Could this new Death's Shadow deck be the new sheriff in town and police the format?
Agreed. I'm wondering what decks might have favorable matchups vs. DSA. It seems far too fast, resilient, and disruptive for control decks to keep in check, and also too fast for combo and big-mana decks. Possibly Fish and/or Elves landwalking past their blockers to attack their fragile life totals? Burn to punish the self-inflicted wounds?
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
w00t! Sylvan police assemble!
I guess DSA isn't one of those decks that can just run 4 Chalice of the Void at any rate.
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
And JACE, SFM, and GSZ having a grave in Modern is from about the same time and we have not see any change in Wotc's thinking. Until I see something that shows they have changed their thinking or they unban/reprint something they have said isnt going to be, I dont worry about them.
Meta game better. Have an idea of what you are going to face, play the counters that stop those threats. Playing against big mana, play deprive. Playing against fast creature based decks, play Mana Leak or Mana Tithe. If you are playing pump decks that rely on spells play spell pierce or Mana Leak.
I agree with Wotc there shouldnt be a catch all card that can be played against all decks. Meta gaming is part of the game.
Few things.
1) This weekend meant very little in the bigger picture. As was mentioned by the announcer on Saturday, an event where 1500 people came to play and you could play somewhere around 50 different decks and do decent isnt going to tell much about the format as a whole. There are so many other things involved then deck choice in an event like this, it annoys me so many put so much on it.
2) You are assuming Wotc feels the same as the player base does about the format and the meta game. We have seen in the past that Wotc sees things much different then the player base does.
3) As I mentioned above, people need to meta game better for Modern. There are the tools to combat each and every deck blue decks will face, its just they need to change out their counters depending on what they are playing. There is no catch all reactive cards (counter)that are good against all decks. Wotc doesnt feel there should be or they have not in the recent past. Could that change? Sure. But until it does and Wotc shows us they have had a change of heart, we have to do with what we got.
I think you are grossly misrepresenting what these events mean. They set the bar for the decks to beat; the best decks in the format (especially when combined with MTGO top decks).. And yes, while the middle and bottom half of the FNM tables are filled with wacky brews, the top tables are ALWAYS a collection of these top tier decks to beat. People who want to win play the best decks, and if you want to do well at a local level, you have to beat all the weird random crap people bring to the low tables AND the fierce and relentless power seen at the top tables. If you've got a reactive Snapcaster deck that can do that, I'm all ears. But this past weekend showed that, yet again, blue doesn't have the chops to both avoid losing to jank AND hang with the big boys. So as long as you don't care about winning, then sure, blue is doing fine. But even at the FNM level, the stuff is just trash more often than not.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
WUBRG Humans
BRW Mardu Pyromancer
UW UW "Control"
UR Blue Moon
I think it is kind of a joke that preordain is banned while green has two 1 mana search spells. That is the world we live in though due to combo possibly abusing good cantrips.
I personally love a Preordain unban, but it means Twin is even less likely to come off the list and Preordain will definitely help Cheeri0s and Storm (less worryingly, Ad Nauseam too). I also like a JTMS unban, but if the problem is a lack of answers or a lack of early game consistency, JTMS doesn't solve that. I see arguments for and against both of these unbans, as well as SFM and Twin, but am not sure what the best option is.
They mentioned this exactly on the coverage near the end of the tournament tonight. Many many modern decks are viable, because there are MANY ways to just close the game out.
Blue Reactive Control lacks this.
Spirits
It's a combination of the three. Our answers are extremely narrow, either in application or in the time window they are effective. For example, Dispel, Negate, and Spell Snare are efficient, but extremely narrow. Remand, Mana Leak, and Spell Pierce become almost irrelevant as the game continues (with the added downside of Pierce being narrow). Cryptic Command is amazing, but it's also 4 mana and UUU. That's a huge restriction in a "turn 4 format." Blue does not deal with permanents very well, so if we can't counter something, we are forced into other colors. If we are going into some other set of colors, there are usually just better decks that play those cards than anything blue can do because of the third weakness: threats. The scariest thing blue decks can do is the equivalent of a Tarmogoyf that requires multiple cards to setup (Tasigur). We present little to no early pressure and our threats are often very fragile (Delver/Pyromancer/Clique, etc). It's not just the lack of closing speed, but it's the fact that the win conditions are all incredibly fair. It's a creature or creature land that either has summoning sickness or a big activation cost. This simply doesn't cut it most of the time when opponents are playing things like Karn, Primeval Titan, or 1 mana 11/11s. Finally, also have poor ways to find our answers or threats. Serum Visions is laughably bad and it's even worse when compared to the kinds of deck manipulation, digging, and cheating green has access too. But honestly, short of Dig Through Time or Brainstorm, no cantrip is going to help solve the massive shortcomings in problems 1 and 2. The narrow answers HAVE to line up perfect, or you lose. The soft answers may or may not actually answer anything. The threats are fairly easily taken care of most of the time, and often very slow to win. The reason I keep harping back to Twin is that it solves the problems of answers and closing speed while not needing any additional cantriping. It's a win condition that, in of itself, acts as a deterrent for players playing decks blue often struggles with. Blue is clearly incapable of keeping up with the lunacy that happens in Modern, but it forced players to play more carefully "just in case" or risk getting blown out by a combo. This means opponents would hold things back and not over-extend. Who is doing that today with Grixis? Jeskai? Esper? No, it's "here's what I've got. Now YOU deal with it." And often, we can't. Or we can't deal with it ENOUGH in order for our slow and/or fragile win conditions to get there.
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I think Preordain would be a great addition to Delver, but with Push wrecking the deck as it is, and with regular Grixis Control stuck on having to win on Tasigur beats alone most of the time, Preordain really doesn't do anything to help those decks. I haven't played with SFM enough to make an informed decision on how it would specifically help BLUE. While I know I would definitely try to play it, I have to concede that an Abzan home is probably best for it.
I can try to elaborate more later, if needed. Been a long day and just trying to get thoughts out. I've probably written something similar more eloquently before.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
I disagree to a large extent with these large 1500 player events meaning much. Like I mentioned, there are many other factors that determine if a deck makes it to the top of the standings. Byes being huge. Skirting bad match ups or running into bad match ups round after round. Fatigue.
Like I sad above, blue mages have to meta game now. In the past they just had catch all reactive spells and they could go up against anything and have a shot. Modern is different. If you are going to a Modern event you have to really plan on what you are going to see and tweak your 75 accordingly. If you are going to see fast aggro, non interactive builds mana leak and spells like mana tithe(mana tithing someone changes the whole way they play their deck) should help a lot. If you are going to be playing ramp or some kind of spell based deck, spell pierce and spells like that should slow them down enough to get to your borad wipes and the like. If you expect to be seeing Cavern of souls a lot you need to slip in a play set of ghost quarters or a tect edge or 2, maybe Fullmanator. Playing reactive blue really is built once you know what you are playing against. Its almost impossible to build a reactive blue based deck in an event the size of this was. Please dont say Twin never had those probelms, because Twin made the whole format play different. You could not tap out on turn 3 on the play and let a Twin player have the ability to slam the win turn 4.
I personally have no problem being in the money locally playing Ux decks when I know for the most part what I will face. That is events with 20-40 players most playing decks you see in deck forums on this site. Dredge, Jund, Eldrazi, D&T. Its also why I didnt have a problem with the Eldrazi winter. There was only a handful playing the deck. I knew who and I knew what i needed in my 75 to make the top of the standing.
Its 2017, Ux reactive, catch all decks with very few bad match ups are in the days of past. Wotc has made it pretty clear they dont want decks like that in the format.
The way I look at it, you use those narrow lesser counters to slow them down to get to the amazing Cryptic Commands. Once you hit 4 mana, your blue deck should be in position to deal with the game.
The Winning deck
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=111792
the events top 16
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/deckshow.php?&t[C1]=28&start_date=02/17/2017&end_date=02/19/2017&start=1&finish=16&event_ID=36&city=Baltimore
The biggest problem is that it is difficult to find instant-win cards early enough in the game. Those cards definitely do exist. Madcap Experiment, Gifts Ungiven, and even Nahiri, the Harbinger all end the game extremely quickly when played on curve. Most decks other than BGx Midrange and Tron have few answers to a turn 4 Platinum Emperion, a turn 5 Blazing Archon, Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite, or Iona, Shield of Emeria, or a turn 6 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and all of them instantly stabilize or win the game. However, with Serum Visions being the only decent cantrip, it is difficult to ensure that a wincon will be found in time to play it on curve, which opens up a window that allows Control players to lose to aggro and combo decks. If Preordain is unbanned, Combo/Control decks should be able to do well in Modern. Traditional pure Control decks likely will never do well in Modern though.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
I find it interesting that SCG events have these blue decks that win, why would that be? Sultai won an SCG event too, was it not?
Is it size, level of play? Gotta wonder why.
Spirits
I would say it is the first 2. The answers are good enough except for the later game reliability (mana leak, and logic knot could be counterspell). It is ok for blue answers to be a little situational because countering something is inherently stronger than discard and remlval because you get to trade mana unlike discard and you stop spells and etb abilities unlike removal. Cards like spell snare are good situational but powerful answers. This leads to why closing speed is important. Having situational answers means that you cannot answer everything forever and even with unconditional answers that has always been true in formats outside of standard. David Price said that every threat is a threat but an answer can be the wrong answer which has always been true and which is why blue decks have been combocontrol or prisoncontrol decks throughout most of the games history. Twin is the only card in the modern card pool that fixes this problem though unless something close to being a good compact and strong wincon comes along.
Blue can use some better cantrips to find answers easier but that is risky since it will power combo up in a forceless format and I rather not have modern become force vs combo. I honestly think here it is possible to reduce the consistency of other decks. Although many may not agree I would advocate for a Traverse and ancient stirrings ban.
This is almost certainly the wrong approach. BANS DON'T WORK AT SHAPING FORMATS. Legacy self-regulates without bans. Old Standard self-regulated without bans for years. Modern gets Probe and GGT banned and then Death's Shadow Jund and Dredge win the two weekend GP. Wizards banned Twin and said new reactive blue decks would emerge and then they didn't. Wizards banned BBE to nerf Jund and then had to ban DRS a year later. Standard post bans is, well, a horrible trainwreck. We do not need more bans. Bans always have unforeseen consequences for shaping formats and they are frequently very negative. For every effective Modern ban we can point to, we can point to an equally ineffective one. It's particularly laughable when those bans include a suggestion about banning Traverse (!?) after a single GP that showcased its strength.
If Preordain is off the table because it powers up unfair decks, look to JTMS, SFM, and/or Twin. JTMS only goes in a certain kind of blue deck that, incidentally, is not doing very well now. SFM is broader but goes in very few of the top-tier decks right now (Abzan being a big exception). Twin goes in Twin. These are the cards to look to if you are worried about blue having Preordain, not banning other consistency tools so the format is even more swingy and even more ill-defined by bad bans.
EDIT: And here's the Top 32, i.e. another bunch of blue decks that just couldn't quite get there!
http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpvan17/9-32-decklists-2017-02-19
Grixis Control at 19th
Grixis Control at 32nd
It's the same narrative we've seen since August 2016. Blue is kind of, sort of there but not really.
Better players doing better than I ever will, but I think it's an issue.
If you're on blue you are just not breaking that ceiling. You have to do something.
The Esper list isn't even running counters at all...
It's crazy to me. You are either forcing your will on the match, or you are losing.
Edit: and no more bans. If green has better dig and tutor, UNBAN BLUE CARDS.
It's literally as stupid as White having had the best removal in the format till Push.
You don't have to even touch your precious little limited and standard.
Unbans the cards.
Spirits
Its because players on that circuit tend to play the same deck or deck type week in and week out. Everyone knows certain players play certain decks in SCG events. Knowing the region and what top players are going to play, its easier to meta game for their events. Those that win week in and week out have tweaked 75 for those events.
I heard a lot of people complain that they cant win with the decks that top in SCG events in their own metas.
I would say they dont work for some. It all depends on what you want out of the format. The meta has changed every time they have banned a card in the format.
I would agree, but Legacy has a ban list. Modern doesnt have the policing cards that Legacy has. Personally I dont wish for those policing cards to be in Modern either because it would make the format something it isnt now. Larger card pool and more policing cards in a format that is suppose to be a full turn faster then Modern. Hard to compare.
Much smaller card pool and a format the cards are designed for, also rotating. Not a good comparison.
Only other point I would like to comment on is ..
Yes it did. Gave birth to a couple Ux reactive decks. They may not be T1 but they are playable and in some cases a solid meta call.
I personally would like to go a year with no changes and let the format settle a little before doing anything.