WOTC is doing many things right but they are hugely wrong in one department:
Since they want a format with NO BEST DECK, they have to TEST A LOT to achieve that. And they don't(test). If a deck that is too good emerges now in the metagame again, kind of like Infect or Twin, it will get banned by them. That's the problem. Should they test a lot, and put in some brilliant minds/employees they have to get down with it(LSV/Karsen/Chapin, etc), this could work out great. But they won't. It's a little odd that a big company like that are that much short handed on numbers of employees.
They also want to fix the format by banning the good decks down rather than powering the weaker decks up. So its both philosophy and implementation.
Maybe that's what they should do [lots of testing], if by "should" you mean that with respect to achieving the singular goal of increasing modern format player satisfaction.
However, in this case, that isn't their goal. Their goal is to use modern as a vehicle for delivering maximum value on standard set purchases. If they put a ton of money into testing, the value proposition sum will come down and decrease the value of the modern format to the company.
It's important to keep the perspective and goals of the format within the context of the prescribed purpose of the format. I mean, I want infinite cards printed on demand for a penny each - and I'd love the format more for it. Obviously, WotC would be fools to give me what I want.
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Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
I dont think unbanning is out of the question, after all lets not forget AV and ThopterSword have done next to nothing to the format.
Isnt that the near ideal scenario? Unbanning cards to increase potential deck ideas without shaking the format too much?
100%. I've never, outside Eldrazi time, considered the format 'bad'. So anything that would keep meaningful deck types available, with as much as possible in the Tier 1-2 range, would be preferable to me.
Any banlist predictions for March? Which deck is next on the chopping block?
Nothing will be banned in March barring another Eldrazi fiasco. I do expect an unban in either March or April if no top-tier URx deck emerges.
The first time we'll be in real danger of a non-Dredge ban is July. I do think Wizards will take another look at Dredge in April, however, and if it's still causing the same old problems they'll ban something else. I expect that "something else" would be Stinkweed Imp.
Calling it now that they're going to unban Stoneforge.
I went all in on that prediction this time around (picked up the set plus batterskull). I am holding them until april - if SFM doesn't come back then, I don't see a reason to believe it ever will. Now seems like the time, if there ever is one.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Modern Decks
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Calling it now that they're going to unban Stoneforge.
I went all in on that prediction this time around (picked up the set plus batterskull). I am holding them until april - if SFM doesn't come back then, I don't see a reason to believe it ever will. Now seems like the time, if there ever is one.
Luckily BS, the Swords, and SFM herself are wonderfully useful in Commander. At least that's where my copies have been living after the last time I spec bought...
I hope she sees the light of day in Modern at some point.
I think BBE and SFM share a fate in that they'll both stay on the bench until/unless Jund and Junk, respectively, start declining in meta share pretty drastically.
WOTC is doing many things right but they are hugely wrong in one department:
Since they want a format with NO BEST DECK, they have to TEST A LOT to achieve that. And they don't(test). If a deck that is too good emerges now in the metagame again, kind of like Infect or Twin, it will get banned by them. That's the problem. Should they test a lot, and put in some brilliant minds/employees they have to get down with it(LSV/Karsen/Chapin, etc), this could work out great. But they won't. It's a little odd that a big company like that are that much short handed on numbers of employees.
They also want to fix the format by banning the good decks down rather than powering the weaker decks up. So its both philosophy and implementation.
The problem I have with this criticism is that while they will make bannings if a deck proves to good it isn't really true that they don't want to power up weaker decks they just can't always do it by unbanning cards. They have printed new cards that have essentially made prior tier 3 decks into something competitive. Kcommand and Banana king made grixis delver/control viable, TBR has 2 decks built around combo killing with it and Titi makes the URprowess a viable deck. I think the shared fantasy of everyone in this forum would be for WotC to change their stance on not reprinting cards MMxx that are not already in the Modern card pool but I don't think it will ever happen and because of that it will just be very slow to change as we will have to wait for standard to bring us some goodies.
Calling it now that they're going to unban Stoneforge.
I went all in on that prediction this time around (picked up the set plus batterskull). I am holding them until april - if SFM doesn't come back then, I don't see a reason to believe it ever will. Now seems like the time, if there ever is one.
Why? Abzan has a tier 1 and tier 2 deck and WotC has stated they don't want to unban things that slide right into top level decks. I just wonder why so many people keep saying that they feel like it needs to be unbanned as though ever other color has some high level mono-color build and white is the only one without one.
Any banlist predictions for March? Which deck is next on the chopping block?
Nothing will be banned in March barring another Eldrazi fiasco. I do expect an unban in either March or April if no top-tier URx deck emerges.
The first time we'll be in real danger of a non-Dredge ban is July. I do think Wizards will take another look at Dredge in April, however, and if it's still causing the same old problems they'll ban something else. I expect that "something else" would be Stinkweed Imp.
I would love a power up for UR decks but I don't see it as happening. WotC has since the birth of the format has a concern that UR decks would be top level just like every other eternal format and as we have seen with Treasure Cruise the kind of affects that power up UR tend to be very damaging to the BGx attrition strategies and have a major potential of upsetting the very delicate balance of the format.
If infect jund and burn are all still good choices then I think WotC will say U and R are well represented in the meta game and Izzet isn't entitled to be top tier and as I said I think they don't want it to be since again it defines every other eternal format.
In all honesty, we don't have enough information to make *solid* predictions about bans/unbans in the upcoming months.
Couple of conditions that could go either way:
1. the dredge ban was sufficient to reduce the diversity pressure dredge put on the format.
2. The gitaxian probe ban sufficiently reduced the number of turn 3 kills in the format, or resulted in polarizing the matchups of the decks that were abusing it to the point that they no longer maintain a significant combined metagame share.
If 1 is not true, then we will likely see another dredge ban in the future. It might take a few big events, but I think I'm not the only person that suspects the result of this ban will be that dredge still has the same good and bad matchups, with the bad matchups being slightly more unfavorable than before, but with the good matchups STILL being very polarized based on available sideboard hate. While other decks like affinity are allowed to ebb and flow on the basis of sideboard hate prevalence, I have a very strong suspicion that dredge will be treated more like the grapeshot storm decks when seething song was banned--the deck isn't vulnerable to discard or creature removal, so it's held on a tighter leash as far as weakness to sideboard cards goes. IF another dredge ban happens, I'm unequivocally with Sheridan--It will be stinkweed imp because banning both solves the problem of the dredge mechanic existing strongly in modern AND doesn't limit further design space.
If 1 is not true AND 2 is true, we likely see a dredge ban. If 1 and 2 are BOTH false, we could see one of two things: another ban aimed at the aggressive linear decks or an unban aimed at slowing them down (probably punishing fire or stoneforge mystic. I don't believe they would ever unban jitte, although technically that would probably also work. Likely ban targets would depend on where the problem is or what they perceive to be the problem. My model says if it's the overall number of turn 3 kills in the format, the likely candidate is become immense. If it's the consistency of certain specific decks pulling off turn 3 kills, it seems most likely to be mutagenic growth, under much the same logic as gitaxian probe: doing too much for no resource cost. For all we know, WOTC might be able to track something like "turn three wins through interaction", in which case they might decide there are OTHER spells worth hitting. In that sense, we have no clue what they could/should ban because we don't know what OTHER metrics they think are important. We only know of three that really matter to them thus far: actual MTGO match-win percentages, major event finishes, and MTGO metagame percentages. These are the only numbers they've specifically cited in ban announcements. They've never talked about Day 1 to Day 2 conversion. They've never mentioned day 2 to top 8/16 conversion. They've only mentioned actual top 32 placements, top 8 placements, and wins at the GP/Open levels and at pro tours.
If 1 is true and 2 is true, we likely see a no-changes or an unban, but a conservative unban.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Yes, I am a local area mod. WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Primary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
Calling it now that they're going to unban Stoneforge.
I went all in on that prediction this time around (picked up the set plus batterskull). I am holding them until april - if SFM doesn't come back then, I don't see a reason to believe it ever will. Now seems like the time, if there ever is one.
I picked mine up last year and have been playing them in Legacy (plus got 2 promos from GPs I attended). Now I'm not saying they would but March unbanning is the perfect time to unban anything they think might get rediculous cost wise that they may have slotted into MM2017 at the last minute. SFM and JTMS come to mind as cards that if unbanned in modern would jump in price drastically. It'd be interesting if they kept a slot open in MM2017 for something like that so that when they unban it, it immediately gets a reprint.
Fatal Push: Everything that needs to be said about this card has already been said. Bottom line: this card's insane.
The Likely
Felidar Guardian: The combo with Saheeli could easily slot into a Modern Jeskai Tempo shell. It's not quite Twin, but I think it will be very solid replacement.
Renegade Rallier: Will likely be the new staple for Abzan Company. Will it be enough to propel the deck back up to its former glory? Quite possibly.
Narnam Renegade: A Green Kird Ape/Loam Lion with Deathtouch. Will most likely be played in Zoo.
The "Probably Not Good Enough"
The Expertises: All of them. The combos with AV and Split/Fuse cards are very gimmicky and inconsistent. It honestly reminds me of the Eldritch Evolution hype back during Eldritch Moon prerelease season. I expect the combos to flop and the hype to die down, just like what happened with Evo.
Disallow: Most of the time, this is just a Cancel. Besides, Voidslime sees almost no Modern play, I don't see why this would either.
Pacification Array: It has decent synergy with Tezz AoB and Nahiri tH, but it's very slow and most likely not going to cut it. Besides, Icy Manipulator is way too weak for Modern.
Whir of Invention: Reshape barely sees any Modern play, so I don't see why this would either. Don't be fooled, Improvise is MUCH weaker than Convoke. In fact, Improvise is nothing but the nerfed version of Affinity for Artifacts. Pass.
Paradox Engine: Not enough Mana Rocks in Modern to abuse with it. And probably not impactful enough to see play in Elves.
Baral, Chief of Compliance: Give it up, it's over. Storm is dead.
Hidden Stockpile: The tokens don't even get flying. Just stick with Bitterblossom, it's a much better card than this.
The "Maybes"
Planar Bridge: Will it be good enough for Tron? Only time will tell.
Do you agree with my predictions? Are there any cards I didn't mention that you think have potential in Modern? Post your thoughts in the comments below!
I think Yahenni's Expertise and Sram's Expertise make the cut. Wiping the board or putting 3 tokens down are both playable by themselves at 3cmc, but throwing down another spell is what seals the deal in my opinion, and it's not a matter of if but when. The red expertise is a maybe being 3cmc but needing a target is a big downside.
I don't think disallow makes it in modern since card advantage is king and 3cmc is too slow, but it could be a viable sideboard card against fringe decks. UG is a very underplayed combination in modern.
Whir is instant speed which makes it better than Reshape in several cases (fetching lotus bloom at instant speed)
So with Push being in the format and many of the T3 kill decks gone am I gonna have to maindeck Leyline of Sanctity?
Collective Brutality is bonkers for shifting so much favor towards black decks against aggro.
Well you could a deck with access to ancestral visions. It is very strong vs decks using discard and is only really bad against decks that beat you too fast for it to matter.
I don't think that Felidar Guardian is playable in Modern, it is a worse Restoration Angel and the combo is much worse than S.Twin and also a worse win-con than Nahiri+Emrakul or Kiki+Resto in Jeskai imho.
I would not be surprised if an "expertise+fuse cards" combination (and Brain in a Jar) would form a more viable deck than a Saheeli+Guardian deck.
The expertise cards might also create a better version of a "Restore Balance" deck that might be more viable/consistent.
I think Yahenni's Expertise and Sram's Expertise make the cut. Wiping the board or putting 3 tokens down are both playable by themselves at 3cmc, but throwing down another spell is what seals the deal in my opinion, and it's not a matter of if but when. The red expertise is a maybe being 3cmc but needing a target is a big downside.
I don't think disallow makes it in modern since card advantage is king and 3cmc is too slow, but it could be a viable sideboard card against fringe decks. UG is a very underplayed combination in modern.
Whir is instant speed which makes it better than Reshape in several cases (fetching lotus bloom at instant speed)
Damnation doesn't see much play, so I doubt Yahenni's will either. Lingering Souls is so much more powerful than Sram's it's insane.
I'm guessing the fringe decks you're referring to that Disallow could be boarded in against are WR Prison and Skred Red? so, the fact that it has UU in its cost and both of the aforementioned fringe decks run Blood Moon, I'm not a fan. The only decks I can think of that Disallow might be good against are Storm, Nahiri Control, Blue Tron, and Doubling Season Walkers, but 3 of those decks see so little play that it isn't even worth it, and the other will likely be outclassed by Saheeli Cat. Is there another deck Disallow could be good against?
Is it really worth it to Whir for a Bloom? You're basically just spending 3 mana to get 3 mana. Seems pretty gimmicky to me. What else would you do with Whir anyway? Even the aforementioned Blue Tron can't really make use of it, as the UUU requirement means that they have to wait until at least turn 6 to get any real value out of it, and that's assuming they have UrzaTron+3 Islands on board on turn 6. So no Academy Ruins. I really do like Whir's design, but realistically, the card seems WAY too slow to really do anything relevant in Modern. If only it could produce colored mana, like Convoke...that would actually breathe some life into the Etherium artifacts from Alara block.
I don't think that Felidar Guardian is playable in Modern, it is a worse Restoration Angel and the combo is much worse than S.Twin and also a worse win-con than Nahiri+Emrakul or Kiki+Resto in Jeskai imho.
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I'm curious why you say that, I haven't tried the combo at all yet, but in theory seems "not quite bad". It is definitely worse than Twin (nothing can replace that), but I don't think it's worse than Resto-Kiki or Nahiri:
-It kills instantly on T4, which is one turn sooner than Resto-Kiki and many times sooner than Nahiri (which is just a reliable win-con more than a combo).
-Saheeli is a bad PW, but it's still a PW and can do some neat stuff. You can copy Snapcasters in a much easier way and less prone to removal than putting a Twin in your Snap, so overall I think Saheeli is actually a "better card" alone than Splinter Twin. I played Twin many years and the deck was great, but sometimes you did have several Twins rotting in your hand and there was nothing to do.
-Felidar Guardian is a terrible card, yes, but Exarch also was. Flash is a great loss, but this one let's you (again) blink Snapcasters and even other PWs that you may have in the deck to do some cool stuff.
I think the deck has a promising powerlevel in the right shell.
I don't think that Felidar Guardian is playable in Modern, it is a worse Restoration Angel and the combo is much worse than S.Twin and also a worse win-con than Nahiri+Emrakul or Kiki+Resto in Jeskai imho.
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I'm curious why you say that, I haven't tried the combo at all yet, but in theory seems "not quite bad". It is definitely worse than Twin (nothing can replace that), but I don't think it's worse than Resto-Kiki or Nahiri:
-It kills instantly on T4, which is one turn sooner than Resto-Kiki and many times sooner than Nahiri (which is just a reliable win-con more than a combo).
-Saheeli is a bad PW, but it's still a PW and can do some neat stuff. You can copy Snapcasters in a much easier way and less prone to removal than putting a Twin in your Snap, so overall I think Saheeli is actually a "better card" alone than Splinter Twin. I played Twin many years and the deck was great, but sometimes you did have several Twins rotting in your hand and there was nothing to do.
-Felidar Guardian is a terrible card, yes, but Exarch also was. Flash is a great loss, but this one let's you (again) blink Snapcasters and even other PWs that you may have in the deck to do some cool stuff.
I think the deck has a promising powerlevel in the right shell.
Personally, I think Saheeli Cat will replace Kikki Resto and Nahirikul. Saheeli Cat is much faster. Yes, Resto and Nahiri do have the advantage of being very good standalone cards, unlike either Saheeli or Cat, however, I'd much rather draw multiple Saheelis with no Cat or vice-versa than draw Kikki with no Restos or draw Emrakul ever.
Though it is faster it is rather easy to disrupt (any 2/3-damage burn spell in response to Saheeli Rai activation or just attacking her before you cast Felidar Guardian) compared to Nahiri (and even Kiki-Resto which can protect each other).
It is also much weaker at playing a fair game compared to playing with Nahiri or Resto.
#Also regarding Felidar Guardian vs. Deceiver Exarch, the latter had more utility as a flash creature that could help the tempo game by tapping down opposing creatures/lands or untapping a land for counterspells and is generally a better creature.
#"Twin" also had redundency in the form of Pestermite while Saheeli+Guardian doesn't have it (running 4x of each doesn't sound like a good plan) and on their own Saheeli Rai is better than Splinter Twin but Felidar Guardian is rather useless compared to Deceiver Exarch/Pestermite and much inferior to Restoration Angel.
They also want to fix the format by banning the good decks down rather than powering the weaker decks up. So its both philosophy and implementation.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
However, in this case, that isn't their goal. Their goal is to use modern as a vehicle for delivering maximum value on standard set purchases. If they put a ton of money into testing, the value proposition sum will come down and decrease the value of the modern format to the company.
It's important to keep the perspective and goals of the format within the context of the prescribed purpose of the format. I mean, I want infinite cards printed on demand for a penny each - and I'd love the format more for it. Obviously, WotC would be fools to give me what I want.
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
100%. I've never, outside Eldrazi time, considered the format 'bad'. So anything that would keep meaningful deck types available, with as much as possible in the Tier 1-2 range, would be preferable to me.
Spirits
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
Nothing will be banned in March barring another Eldrazi fiasco. I do expect an unban in either March or April if no top-tier URx deck emerges.
The first time we'll be in real danger of a non-Dredge ban is July. I do think Wizards will take another look at Dredge in April, however, and if it's still causing the same old problems they'll ban something else. I expect that "something else" would be Stinkweed Imp.
They won't ban anything else until January 2018. That's my prediction. (unless something weird happens from standard)
UW Ephara Hatebears [Primer], GB Gitrog Lands, BRU Inalla Combo-Control, URG Maelstrom Wanderer Landfall
KnightfallGWUR
Azorius Control UW
Burn RBG
Luckily BS, the Swords, and SFM herself are wonderfully useful in Commander. At least that's where my copies have been living after the last time I spec bought...
I hope she sees the light of day in Modern at some point.
UR ....... WUBR ........... WB ............. RGW ........ UBR ....... WUB .... BGU
Spells / Blink & Combo / Token Grind / Dino Tribal / Draw Cards / Zombies / Reanimate
Standard: lol no
Modern: BG/x, UR/x, Burn, Merfolk, Zoo, Storm
Legacy: Shardless BUG, Delver (BUG, RUG, Grixis), Landstill, Depths Combo, Merfolk
Vintage: Dark Times, BUG Fish, Merfolk
EDH: Teysa, Orzhov Scion / Krenko, Mob Boss / Stonebrow, Krosan Hero
The problem I have with this criticism is that while they will make bannings if a deck proves to good it isn't really true that they don't want to power up weaker decks they just can't always do it by unbanning cards. They have printed new cards that have essentially made prior tier 3 decks into something competitive. Kcommand and Banana king made grixis delver/control viable, TBR has 2 decks built around combo killing with it and Titi makes the URprowess a viable deck. I think the shared fantasy of everyone in this forum would be for WotC to change their stance on not reprinting cards MMxx that are not already in the Modern card pool but I don't think it will ever happen and because of that it will just be very slow to change as we will have to wait for standard to bring us some goodies.
Why? Abzan has a tier 1 and tier 2 deck and WotC has stated they don't want to unban things that slide right into top level decks. I just wonder why so many people keep saying that they feel like it needs to be unbanned as though ever other color has some high level mono-color build and white is the only one without one.
I would love a power up for UR decks but I don't see it as happening. WotC has since the birth of the format has a concern that UR decks would be top level just like every other eternal format and as we have seen with Treasure Cruise the kind of affects that power up UR tend to be very damaging to the BGx attrition strategies and have a major potential of upsetting the very delicate balance of the format.
If infect jund and burn are all still good choices then I think WotC will say U and R are well represented in the meta game and Izzet isn't entitled to be top tier and as I said I think they don't want it to be since again it defines every other eternal format.
Couple of conditions that could go either way:
1. the dredge ban was sufficient to reduce the diversity pressure dredge put on the format.
2. The gitaxian probe ban sufficiently reduced the number of turn 3 kills in the format, or resulted in polarizing the matchups of the decks that were abusing it to the point that they no longer maintain a significant combined metagame share.
If 1 is not true, then we will likely see another dredge ban in the future. It might take a few big events, but I think I'm not the only person that suspects the result of this ban will be that dredge still has the same good and bad matchups, with the bad matchups being slightly more unfavorable than before, but with the good matchups STILL being very polarized based on available sideboard hate. While other decks like affinity are allowed to ebb and flow on the basis of sideboard hate prevalence, I have a very strong suspicion that dredge will be treated more like the grapeshot storm decks when seething song was banned--the deck isn't vulnerable to discard or creature removal, so it's held on a tighter leash as far as weakness to sideboard cards goes. IF another dredge ban happens, I'm unequivocally with Sheridan--It will be stinkweed imp because banning both solves the problem of the dredge mechanic existing strongly in modern AND doesn't limit further design space.
If 1 is not true AND 2 is true, we likely see a dredge ban. If 1 and 2 are BOTH false, we could see one of two things: another ban aimed at the aggressive linear decks or an unban aimed at slowing them down (probably punishing fire or stoneforge mystic. I don't believe they would ever unban jitte, although technically that would probably also work. Likely ban targets would depend on where the problem is or what they perceive to be the problem. My model says if it's the overall number of turn 3 kills in the format, the likely candidate is become immense. If it's the consistency of certain specific decks pulling off turn 3 kills, it seems most likely to be mutagenic growth, under much the same logic as gitaxian probe: doing too much for no resource cost. For all we know, WOTC might be able to track something like "turn three wins through interaction", in which case they might decide there are OTHER spells worth hitting. In that sense, we have no clue what they could/should ban because we don't know what OTHER metrics they think are important. We only know of three that really matter to them thus far: actual MTGO match-win percentages, major event finishes, and MTGO metagame percentages. These are the only numbers they've specifically cited in ban announcements. They've never talked about Day 1 to Day 2 conversion. They've never mentioned day 2 to top 8/16 conversion. They've only mentioned actual top 32 placements, top 8 placements, and wins at the GP/Open levels and at pro tours.
If 1 is true and 2 is true, we likely see a no-changes or an unban, but a conservative unban.
Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
I picked mine up last year and have been playing them in Legacy (plus got 2 promos from GPs I attended). Now I'm not saying they would but March unbanning is the perfect time to unban anything they think might get rediculous cost wise that they may have slotted into MM2017 at the last minute. SFM and JTMS come to mind as cards that if unbanned in modern would jump in price drastically. It'd be interesting if they kept a slot open in MM2017 for something like that so that when they unban it, it immediately gets a reprint.
Collective Brutality is bonkers for shifting so much favor towards black decks against aggro.
The Obvious
Fatal Push: Everything that needs to be said about this card has already been said. Bottom line: this card's insane.
The Likely
Felidar Guardian: The combo with Saheeli could easily slot into a Modern Jeskai Tempo shell. It's not quite Twin, but I think it will be very solid replacement.
Renegade Rallier: Will likely be the new staple for Abzan Company. Will it be enough to propel the deck back up to its former glory? Quite possibly.
Narnam Renegade: A Green Kird Ape/Loam Lion with Deathtouch. Will most likely be played in Zoo.
The "Probably Not Good Enough"
The Expertises: All of them. The combos with AV and Split/Fuse cards are very gimmicky and inconsistent. It honestly reminds me of the Eldritch Evolution hype back during Eldritch Moon prerelease season. I expect the combos to flop and the hype to die down, just like what happened with Evo.
Disallow: Most of the time, this is just a Cancel. Besides, Voidslime sees almost no Modern play, I don't see why this would either.
Pacification Array: It has decent synergy with Tezz AoB and Nahiri tH, but it's very slow and most likely not going to cut it. Besides, Icy Manipulator is way too weak for Modern.
Whir of Invention: Reshape barely sees any Modern play, so I don't see why this would either. Don't be fooled, Improvise is MUCH weaker than Convoke. In fact, Improvise is nothing but the nerfed version of Affinity for Artifacts. Pass.
Paradox Engine: Not enough Mana Rocks in Modern to abuse with it. And probably not impactful enough to see play in Elves.
Baral, Chief of Compliance: Give it up, it's over. Storm is dead.
Hidden Stockpile: The tokens don't even get flying. Just stick with Bitterblossom, it's a much better card than this.
The "Maybes"
Planar Bridge: Will it be good enough for Tron? Only time will tell.
Do you agree with my predictions? Are there any cards I didn't mention that you think have potential in Modern? Post your thoughts in the comments below!
I don't think disallow makes it in modern since card advantage is king and 3cmc is too slow, but it could be a viable sideboard card against fringe decks. UG is a very underplayed combination in modern.
Whir is instant speed which makes it better than Reshape in several cases (fetching lotus bloom at instant speed)
Well you could a deck with access to ancestral visions. It is very strong vs decks using discard and is only really bad against decks that beat you too fast for it to matter.
Yeah, Simic can only crow about having _the_ Tier 1 combo deck.
I would not be surprised if an "expertise+fuse cards" combination (and Brain in a Jar) would form a more viable deck than a Saheeli+Guardian deck.
The expertise cards might also create a better version of a "Restore Balance" deck that might be more viable/consistent.
Damnation doesn't see much play, so I doubt Yahenni's will either. Lingering Souls is so much more powerful than Sram's it's insane.
I'm guessing the fringe decks you're referring to that Disallow could be boarded in against are WR Prison and Skred Red? so, the fact that it has UU in its cost and both of the aforementioned fringe decks run Blood Moon, I'm not a fan. The only decks I can think of that Disallow might be good against are Storm, Nahiri Control, Blue Tron, and Doubling Season Walkers, but 3 of those decks see so little play that it isn't even worth it, and the other will likely be outclassed by Saheeli Cat. Is there another deck Disallow could be good against?
Is it really worth it to Whir for a Bloom? You're basically just spending 3 mana to get 3 mana. Seems pretty gimmicky to me. What else would you do with Whir anyway? Even the aforementioned Blue Tron can't really make use of it, as the UUU requirement means that they have to wait until at least turn 6 to get any real value out of it, and that's assuming they have UrzaTron+3 Islands on board on turn 6. So no Academy Ruins. I really do like Whir's design, but realistically, the card seems WAY too slow to really do anything relevant in Modern. If only it could produce colored mana, like Convoke...that would actually breathe some life into the Etherium artifacts from Alara block.
I'm curious why you say that, I haven't tried the combo at all yet, but in theory seems "not quite bad". It is definitely worse than Twin (nothing can replace that), but I don't think it's worse than Resto-Kiki or Nahiri:
-It kills instantly on T4, which is one turn sooner than Resto-Kiki and many times sooner than Nahiri (which is just a reliable win-con more than a combo).
-Saheeli is a bad PW, but it's still a PW and can do some neat stuff. You can copy Snapcasters in a much easier way and less prone to removal than putting a Twin in your Snap, so overall I think Saheeli is actually a "better card" alone than Splinter Twin. I played Twin many years and the deck was great, but sometimes you did have several Twins rotting in your hand and there was nothing to do.
-Felidar Guardian is a terrible card, yes, but Exarch also was. Flash is a great loss, but this one let's you (again) blink Snapcasters and even other PWs that you may have in the deck to do some cool stuff.
I think the deck has a promising powerlevel in the right shell.
Personally, I think Saheeli Cat will replace Kikki Resto and Nahirikul. Saheeli Cat is much faster. Yes, Resto and Nahiri do have the advantage of being very good standalone cards, unlike either Saheeli or Cat, however, I'd much rather draw multiple Saheelis with no Cat or vice-versa than draw Kikki with no Restos or draw Emrakul ever.
It is also much weaker at playing a fair game compared to playing with Nahiri or Resto.
#Also regarding Felidar Guardian vs. Deceiver Exarch, the latter had more utility as a flash creature that could help the tempo game by tapping down opposing creatures/lands or untapping a land for counterspells and is generally a better creature.
#"Twin" also had redundency in the form of Pestermite while Saheeli+Guardian doesn't have it (running 4x of each doesn't sound like a good plan) and on their own Saheeli Rai is better than Splinter Twin but Felidar Guardian is rather useless compared to Deceiver Exarch/Pestermite and much inferior to Restoration Angel.