You are right. Cascade is nowhere near Legacy in terms of consistency. That's what i'm afraid off too. BBE is just too dicey for a format with so much power level.
- 7 Mana on Turn 3. Tron.
- Turn 3 Reality Smasher. Seriously.
- Infect
- Storm
- Dredge
- Affinity
- Suicide Zoo
- Zoo Burn
- Ad Nauseam
I didn't mention SFM nor Jace. And, BBE imo is just to good right now for the format. It wouldn't make Jund or Temur the best deck, but it would make one of them the "only one" in terms of diversity. I suspect Jace and Stoneforge would do the same. If you unban them all at once, it's bascically opening the midrange gates, and making Modern just Standard OP.
BBE+AV? Yikes. I know Temur is not a big shard right now, but this may be the chance for them to take over, and in a bad way. If they unban BBE, this combination will be a nightmare for midrange and control decks. Again, this is like going back and making Modern one whole archetype all about only one flavor. I for one, would try and work hard to make something like Temur Moon a big deck. Classic case of homogenization of a diverse format.
I think you are really overstimating the impact of BBE + AV. In Modern Cascade is pretty much completly random so you have rather low chances of ever living the dream. Besides, blue doesn't play well with Cascade otherwise, counters are just awful and getting a Serum Visions off BBE isn't that impressive, neither is Snapcaster Mage. Goyf is okay, but RUG has a hard time feeding him. The general card quality with CMC < 4 in these colors is just way too low to spawn a good deck or cause even a slight homogenization towards RUG. No, if BBE is unbanned it will go into Jund. Hitting Liliana of the Veil, Kolaghan's Command or a fully fed Goyf is just a lot more impressive than what Temur could offer. AV doesn't change that.
As an additional note to BBE + AV: Yahenni's Expertise lets you do exactly that, just way better. Wipe the board off small creature and draw 3. No lucky Cascade required, just have AV in hand.
You are right. Cascade is nowhere near Legacy in terms of consistency. That's what i'm afraid off too. BBE is just too dicey for a format with so much power level.
A few counterpoints to your arguement: 1)Actually counterspells aren't good right now, and i suspect they won't be until some hard land destruction is printed or Cavern gets banned.
2)You might miss on the juicy Liliana and Kolaghan's Command, but you gain Ancestral Vison and Blood Moon, Serum Visions, Vendilion Clique, even something like Vedalken Shackles can make good work even if it doens't have an ETB trigger.
3)You are certainly right that Jund would abuse her too. Ultimately, it doesn't bring anything good for the format. Just more degeneracy and variance.
To 1)
Yes, counterspells are bad right now which is certainly a reason to play black over blue.
To 2)
The only cards that would excite me from these are AV and Clique. Jund often plays Blood Moon itself, so no point here and Shackles is a dead card if you draw it naturally, especially if you don't go deep into blue. It's also just not good right now. Serum Visions is very mediocre although probably one of the better hits in RUG and Clique is usually a two-of at most. Hitting a second one is also bad. Nothing here that could compensate for what you miss out on for playing blue over black.
To 3) I completely agree with you here. BBE creates far too much variance and adds even more luck to the game which I don't think helps but is actively bad. I'd keep it banned for this reason alone.
I think now that the Pro Tour for modern is over, we can unban Splinter Twin. Will they do it only one year after banning? Who knows, but at least they can use the Pro Tour as their reasoning for doing so:
"Now that we no longer need to shake modern up for Pro Tour season, and given the negative feedback received from the initial decision to ban it, we feel that Splinter Twin can be safely re-introduced into modern"
Then you can unban Bloodbraid Elf alongside of it since Jund is the natural predator for Twin decks. With BGx and Twin back at the top of the format the meta becomes great again IMO
I would much rather have BBE than Jace or SFM in Modern as the last two are really too good and above level if BBE for sure.
As for BBE+AV it's a good combination indeed but Temur should cut counters for it since cascade mechanic doesn't go well along with them which would ma its combo matchups worse. This is some kind of a drawbabk. Oh and why not just ban AV, it was bad unban anyway and doesn't solve any problems Modern has.
What's more likely? Wizards keeps a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck banned? Or Wizards re-bans a card they unbanned less than 12 months ago and THEN unbans a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck? I'd wager SFM is likelier than BBE, because SFM doesn't readily slot into any Tier 1 decks and directly addresses the linear aggro issues. I also don't think SFM is particularly likely, but it is more likely than BBE.
Don't touch Ancient Stirrings. Tron has already eaten one ban for the sins of Eldrazi, that would make it virtually unplayable, certainly not competitive.
Tron is just coming quite stupid and impossible to beat with these "recent" cast triggering cards those just encourage other decks to play faster and win earlier. And since we don't have powerful interactive cards in modern card pool compared to diversity of threats it is just better to play your own thing instead of worrying about what opponent is doing - that is not healthy.
are you serious? are you SERIOUS??? Modern is a largely goldfish format, at least compared to others, but that is because we have very limited answers. Tron is not even close to stupid or impossible to beat. it is a slow, 4 card combo (3 lands and a huge threat) that you have time to deal with. if it were opressive, Nexus wouldn't have it at #8 3.5% of the metagame, that isn't even T1. newsflash, destroying one of the few slow decks in the format, and one of the ones playing the most sweepers cannot slow the format down. I agree that AS is not entirely reasonable with P&P banned, but as long as Wizards keeps an eye out for broken combo decks and is ready to remove the actually degenerate cards, I am solidly in favor of unbanning one or both
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Stoneforge Mystic isn't 'more powerful' than BBE because such a comparison doesn't exist. Cards do not exist in a vacuum. There are plenty of formats where SFM is much less powerful than BBE and plenty of formats where she is much more powerful - but to make sweeping statements like that is simply incorrect.
Tutoring up a Sword or a Batterskull on turn 3 assuming no disruption and hoping you're not dead on board is just as in line with modern's power level as any other deck. Such a thing existing would encourage interaction both in the decks that would run it and out of the decks that need to beat it.
I would much rather have BBE than Jace or SFM in Modern as the last two are really too good and above level if BBE for sure.
As for BBE+AV it's a good combination indeed but Temur should cut counters for it since cascade mechanic doesn't go well along with them which would ma its combo matchups worse. This is some kind of a drawbabk. Oh and why not just ban AV, it was bad unban anyway and doesn't solve any problems Modern has.
What's more likely? Wizards keeps a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck banned? Or Wizards re-bans a card they unbanned less than 12 months ago and THEN unbans a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck? I'd wager SFM is likelier than BBE, because SFM doesn't readily slot into any Tier 1 decks and directly addresses the linear aggro issues. I also don't think SFM is particularly likely, but it is more likely than BBE.
SFM definitely shouldn't come off and she's definitely stronger than BBE. SFM would be safe unban only if there were no Batterskull, no Swords and no other good equipments. This means Wizards would be obligated to not print good equipments if SFM was Modern legal. Also it isn't true that SFM doesn't go in any tier deck-she goes in Junk which is tier 1 currently. If your standards (one, not the only one though) for judging whether a card should be unbanned or not are based on chances of making it into a tier 1 deck and you think BBE shouldn't come off because that then SFM should stay on the ban list just because of this reason alone (not to mention she's too good for Modern).
What is the Tier 1 deck that SFM directly slots into? I suspect you don't actually have a deck in mind and just don't like SFM, so I'll give you a deck you can form your arguments around: Bant Eldrazi. This is a Tier 1 Wxx midrange deck that could theoretically use SFM. If you want to make the argument that Bant Eldrazi would use SFM and therefore disqualify her as an unban, please do so. But stop making groundless claims without citing actual metagame numbers or examples.
As for power level reasons, I'm continuously baffled about why people think SFM is too powerful for Modern. This is a format with extremely powerful decks like Tron, Infect, Ad Nauseam, Death's Dredge, Shadow Zoo, and Breach Valakut. It's also a format with numerous decks that would never and could never use SFM: Jund, Grixis, Affinity, Burn, and all six of the decks mentioned in the previous sentence. There are decent reasons to argue against SFM but they aren't power reasons.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
Agreed here. Just because a deck is running white doesn't mean it wants to dilute it's gameplan with at least 6 cards.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
I agree that this is a much less certain issue than, say, SFM in Abzan (which is an all but certain inclusion). But it's at least an arguable position about SFM, as opposed to the generic "SFM goes into a Tier 1 deck but I can't specify which one!" that we always hear. I'd be much more interested in seeing an argument about Bant Eldrazi+SFM than about NamelessTier1Deck+SFM.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
Agreed here. Just because a deck is running white doesn't mean it wants to dilute it's gameplan with at least 6 cards.
I guess even Eldrazi and Taxes, one of the most white decks in the format wouldn't play her, or they would have to drop their Leonin Arbiters and lose out on their Strip Mines and strictly better Swords to Plowshares. I am really not sure they would do that.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
I agree that this is a much less certain issue than, say, SFM in Abzan (which is an all but certain inclusion). But it's at least an arguable position about SFM, as opposed to the generic "SFM goes into a Tier 1 deck but I can't specify which one!" that we always hear. I'd be much more interested in seeing an argument about Bant Eldrazi+SFM than about NamelessTier1Deck+SFM.
This is the problem right here. Do you really need to know which archetype or specific deck would use Stoneforge?. I think we all agree if SFM were to be unbanned tomorrow we would see ourselves at least one month of every white deck trying SFM. Bant Eldrazi, Abzan, Taxes, Jeskai would try it out. Which would turn out the best? My initial guess is that the best SFM deck would be Abzan/Junk. Good combination of interaction backed with Turn 3 4/4 Lifelinker and a Sword maybe to get the edge in control mirrors. I'm in that deck. Jeskai would use her too, i don't know with how much success.
Again, you add pressure to a format that goes Turn 1 threat, you can't answer inmmediately, you're dead. Examples: Glistener Elf, Goblin Guide, Steel Overseer, Cranial Plating, Noble Hierarch(If you don't respond to t1 noble against Eldrazi or Infect you put yourself behind),etc.
Stoneforge puts so much pressure on the opponent to have right answers. I agree with the notion that it only takes a Bolt,Path,Disfigure,Shock to kill her. It just puts the stress and makes the format faster in the sense that Aggro/Combo creature decks will go under it probably, except for Burn. You end up with a card that gets played in almost every midrange/control deck. I can bet my money on that. She is that good.
Let's say for a second she doesn't get played in such a way i describe. The unban is just too risky. For me, BBE,Jace and SFM are just attempts to the format diversity in a desperate search for balance of archetypes. I can get behind your disgust towards the aggro world we live in, i'm afraid we just have to wait a little more, invest time in trying to beat this decks with the tools we have, and trust that WOTC will print some great cards in future sets.
All the unbans that could be made were made by my notion. There's nothing left in the banlist that can make the format truly better as we stand right now.
To play sfm you're cutting at least 6 cards out of a deck. To say Swords are too good is crazy or they'd see play at only 3cmc. To say that wizards won't be able to print good equipment is useless because they haven't in forever and this would have been the set for it. I think format diversity is exacly what modern needs, many players just play what they find fun currently anyway so who cares as long as more decks are available to people. There was no dredge or infect at the top of our event yesterday of about 25 players. It was ponza, grixis, abzan combo, bant eldrazi, and skred (me) from what I saw battleing at 3-1 or better in the end and people had fun. There was LE, RG Breach, Infect, Scapeshift, Mill, Jund, Affinity, Jeskia GDD, Gifts Brew... all present too.
No modern PT is huge, Eldrazi wouldn't have been discovered so fast without the pros trying to break it for months prior to the PT. Pros don't try brews in teams for gp's so most new amazing decks won't show up nearly as fast. No PT opens up alot of options for WOTC and there was no reason to get rid of it if they still want the meta to change so drastically regularly.
I recall Jeff Hoogland making a comment about facing Stoneforge Mystic in Bant Eldrazi. I asked why Bant Eldrazi would want SFM but he never replied.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
I agree that this is a much less certain issue than, say, SFM in Abzan (which is an all but certain inclusion). But it's at least an arguable position about SFM, as opposed to the generic "SFM goes into a Tier 1 deck but I can't specify which one!" that we always hear. I'd be much more interested in seeing an argument about Bant Eldrazi+SFM than about NamelessTier1Deck+SFM.
This is the problem right here. Do you really need to know which archetype or specific deck would use Stoneforge?. I think we all agree if SFM were to be unbanned tomorrow we would see ourselves at least one month of every white deck trying SFM. Bant Eldrazi, Abzan, Taxes, Jeskai would try it out. Which would turn out the best? My initial guess is that the best SFM deck would be Abzan/Junk. Good combination of interaction backed with Turn 3 4/4 Lifelinker and a Sword maybe to get the edge in control mirrors. I'm in that deck. Jeskai would use her too, i don't know with how much success.
Again, you add pressure to a format that goes Turn 1 threat, you can't answer inmmediately, you're dead. Examples: Glistener Elf, Goblin Guide, Steel Overseer, Cranial Plating, Noble Hierarch(If you don't respond to t1 noble against Eldrazi or Infect you put yourself behind),etc.
Stoneforge puts so much pressure on the opponent to have right answers. I agree with the notion that it only takes a Bolt,Path,Disfigure,Shock to kill her. It just puts the stress and makes the format faster in the sense that Aggro/Combo creature decks will go under it probably, except for Burn. You end up with a card that gets played in almost every midrange/control deck. I can bet my money on that. She is that good.
Let's say for a second she doesn't get played in such a way i describe. The unban is just too risky. For me, BBE,Jace and SFM are just attempts to the format diversity in a desperate search for balance of archetypes. I can get behind your disgust towards the aggro world we live in, i'm afraid we just have to wait a little more, invest time in trying to beat this decks with the tools we have, and trust that WOTC will print some great cards in future sets.
All the unbans that could be made were made by my notion. There's nothing left in the banlist that can make the format truly better as we stand right now.
It may be that SFM may slot into some decks but lets be honest nearly every deck packs artifact hate due to affinity. It's not hard to deal with artifacts in the format currently and honestly she would give a lot of tier 2 decks (soul sisters for instance)a chance in the meta game while not crippling any decks in the top tier.
You have the right for your opinion as I have and in my opinion SFM is too strong for Modern. Still, if this isn't good enough argument for you against her unban then it should be the fact that she fits into tier 1 (Junk) and you're constantly saying that BBE shouldn't be unbanned exactly because of this reason-she would fit in Jund. These claims are not groundless as you claim but numbers clearly shows that Junk is tier 1 at the moment. The last thing about deck that wouldn't use SFM doesn't help the fact that she shouldn't come off the ban list and these decks would have harder time beating SFM.
Abzan had a 4% showing in the September metagame update, and wasn't Tier 1 before that and isn't Tier 1 now. What evidence do you have that shows Abzan is currently a Tier 1 deck and should be treated the same way as the much clearer Tier 1 Jund?
Lastly, I have feeling that you're against Jund and don't want it to become better (although help would be appreciated) but advocate help for most other (fair) decks which doesn't have any sense in my eyes and I see no reason for it. I really have feeling (not just about Jund but in general) that you basically can't express your feelings without being bashed from multiple directions.
Jund doesn't need help. It has been Tier 1 in basically (maybe even literally) every metagame period since I started doing metagame analysis in 2015. Just look at the history of cards Wizards unbanned: Valakut, Nacatl, BB, GGT, Sword, and AV. Those cards all slotted into major under-performing, or non-existant, decks at the time of their unban. An unban that so directly helps a deck like Jund doesn't remotely fit that mold.
The only unbans I've "supported" recently are Preordain and, to a much lesser extent, SFM. And even with Preordain, it's more of a "Yeah, we could unban that and it would be safe/helpful" instead of a "WIZARDS! UNBAN THIS NOW BECAUSE WE NEED TO HELP MODERN!" stance. I don't think Modern's issues are best solved through unbans and bans, but because this is the banlist thread, I'm focusing on more limited banlist-based solutions.
Jund would do just fine against Stoneforge Mystic without Bloodbraid Elf. I'm a Jund player but I don't share Ayiluss's apprehensive towards cards such as Jace and SFM. Maybe I'm just a different kind of Jund player but I do just fine against artifact heavy decks ( mostly post side board but Kolaghan's command helps ) such as Affinity so I have no fear of SFM and her one pesky Batterskull. I'll gladly take any type of Stoneblade or D&T over Dredge and Eldrazi any day.
BBE+AV? Yikes. I know Temur is not a big shard right now, but this may be the chance for them to take over, and in a bad way. If they unban BBE, this combination will be a nightmare for midrange and control decks. Again, this is like going back and making Modern one whole archetype all about only one flavor. I for one, would try and work hard to make something like Temur Moon a big deck. Classic case of homogenization of a diverse format.
I think you are really overstimating the impact of BBE + AV. In Modern Cascade is pretty much completly random so you have rather low chances of ever living the dream. Besides, blue doesn't play well with Cascade otherwise, counters are just awful and getting a Serum Visions off BBE isn't that impressive, neither is Snapcaster Mage. Goyf is okay, but RUG has a hard time feeding him. The general card quality with CMC < 4 in these colors is just way too low to spawn a good deck or cause even a slight homogenization towards RUG. No, if BBE is unbanned it will go into Jund. Hitting Liliana of the Veil, Kolaghan's Command or a fully fed Goyf is just a lot more impressive than what Temur could offer. AV doesn't change that.
As an additional note to BBE + AV: Yahenni's Expertise lets you do exactly that, just way better. Wipe the board off small creature and draw 3. No lucky Cascade required, just have AV in hand.
I would much rather have BBE than Jace or SFM in Modern as the last two are really too good and above level if BBE for sure.
As for BBE+AV it's a good combination indeed but Temur should cut counters for it since cascade mechanic doesn't go well along with them which would ma its combo matchups worse. This is some kind of a drawbabk. Oh and why not just ban AV, it was bad unban anyway and doesn't solve any problems Modern has.
What's more likely? Wizards keeps a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck banned? Or Wizards re-bans a card they unbanned less than 12 months ago and THEN unbans a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck? I'd wager SFM is likelier than BBE, because SFM doesn't readily slot into any Tier 1 decks and directly addresses the linear aggro issues. I also don't think SFM is particularly likely, but it is more likely than BBE.
I love mystic and all but she slots directly into Abzan which is a tier 1 deck rather nicely
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Isn't the way to beat jund to use card advantage? So is it really safe to give them card advantage that can cascade into even more card advantage?I don't really feel jund needs any help right now and it's the only deck that will likely play BBE. I honestly don't see her going into any zoo or temur list that would be worth a darn. Wouldn't grim flayer seem just that much better then? Attack set up your top cards then cast 1 of 4 cards of your choice? Maybe that card is k comand getting a creature you just flayered into the yard for even more value. I don't know I think you may be underestimating its power level.
Junk is sitting at 4% based on mtgtop8 and this is still tier 1. It also definitely doesn't need a help which SFM would provide. It seems that we live in different worlds because in mine which refers to generic current metagame Junk is as said tier 1. I was referring to that when I had mine definition current state of Junk in minds. I don't know if this is still true by your data though because modern nexus metagame analysis seems to be sleeping for a while.
Jund is still tier 1, that's true but is far from doing great. Metagame is not kind for it right now which numbers (top 8's, Day 2's shares and similar clearly shows). If you don't think it needs a help despite l that then it's fine but then again other fair decks don't need it either because Jund isn't at much better spot than other of them.
So your argument is that Abzan, a tier1 deck with lesser percent, doesn't need Stoneforge Mystic yet another tier1 deck with higher metagame percent is languishing and needs
Bloodbraid Elf?
I'm sorry, I don't follow your logic of one deck not needing any help while an even better one does.
I think the power level of SFM is being greatly overestimated in here. It is a "combo" that requires you to run dead draws. I am not saying she is bad certainly but 2 mana 1/2s had better have good abilities. When other 2 drops of the format being cards like tarmogoyf, Snapcaster, even lesser played cards like young pyromancer all either have MUCH larger stats or VERY powerful abilites. Why should white not also have a powerful 2 drop?
BBE doesn't open up any more decks though. At least SFM would open decks up and adding a 6 card package to a deck that can be disrupted so easily in the meta now isn't too good for anything IMO. I'd like to see more decks in modern not current ones just getting better or going away.
I didn't mention SFM nor Jace. And, BBE imo is just to good right now for the format. It wouldn't make Jund or Temur the best deck, but it would make one of them the "only one" in terms of diversity. I suspect Jace and Stoneforge would do the same. If you unban them all at once, it's bascically opening the midrange gates, and making Modern just Standard OP.
To 1)
Yes, counterspells are bad right now which is certainly a reason to play black over blue.
To 2)
The only cards that would excite me from these are AV and Clique. Jund often plays Blood Moon itself, so no point here and Shackles is a dead card if you draw it naturally, especially if you don't go deep into blue. It's also just not good right now. Serum Visions is very mediocre although probably one of the better hits in RUG and Clique is usually a two-of at most. Hitting a second one is also bad. Nothing here that could compensate for what you miss out on for playing blue over black.
To 3) I completely agree with you here. BBE creates far too much variance and adds even more luck to the game which I don't think helps but is actively bad. I'd keep it banned for this reason alone.
My Modern Decks:
BGWAbzan MidrangeWGB
UWRJeskai NahiriRWU
BRUGrixis ControlURB
"Now that we no longer need to shake modern up for Pro Tour season, and given the negative feedback received from the initial decision to ban it, we feel that Splinter Twin can be safely re-introduced into modern"
Then you can unban Bloodbraid Elf alongside of it since Jund is the natural predator for Twin decks. With BGx and Twin back at the top of the format the meta becomes great again IMO
Wizards, take note of this.
What's more likely? Wizards keeps a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck banned? Or Wizards re-bans a card they unbanned less than 12 months ago and THEN unbans a card that helps an existing Tier 1 deck? I'd wager SFM is likelier than BBE, because SFM doesn't readily slot into any Tier 1 decks and directly addresses the linear aggro issues. I also don't think SFM is particularly likely, but it is more likely than BBE.
are you serious? are you SERIOUS??? Modern is a largely goldfish format, at least compared to others, but that is because we have very limited answers. Tron is not even close to stupid or impossible to beat. it is a slow, 4 card combo (3 lands and a huge threat) that you have time to deal with. if it were opressive, Nexus wouldn't have it at #8 3.5% of the metagame, that isn't even T1. newsflash, destroying one of the few slow decks in the format, and one of the ones playing the most sweepers cannot slow the format down. I agree that AS is not entirely reasonable with P&P banned, but as long as Wizards keeps an eye out for broken combo decks and is ready to remove the actually degenerate cards, I am solidly in favor of unbanning one or both
Tutoring up a Sword or a Batterskull on turn 3 assuming no disruption and hoping you're not dead on board is just as in line with modern's power level as any other deck. Such a thing existing would encourage interaction both in the decks that would run it and out of the decks that need to beat it.
What is the Tier 1 deck that SFM directly slots into? I suspect you don't actually have a deck in mind and just don't like SFM, so I'll give you a deck you can form your arguments around: Bant Eldrazi. This is a Tier 1 Wxx midrange deck that could theoretically use SFM. If you want to make the argument that Bant Eldrazi would use SFM and therefore disqualify her as an unban, please do so. But stop making groundless claims without citing actual metagame numbers or examples.
As for power level reasons, I'm continuously baffled about why people think SFM is too powerful for Modern. This is a format with extremely powerful decks like Tron, Infect, Ad Nauseam, Death's Dredge, Shadow Zoo, and Breach Valakut. It's also a format with numerous decks that would never and could never use SFM: Jund, Grixis, Affinity, Burn, and all six of the decks mentioned in the previous sentence. There are decent reasons to argue against SFM but they aren't power reasons.
Eldrazi doesn't want SFM probably for the same reason Naya Burn doesn't, she either too slow or doesn't have any synergy with the deck. Why spend two turns to have a 4/4 lifelinker where they could of easily had a T2 Thought-Knot Seer or T3 Reality Smasher? Heck, just Eldrazi Displacer alone makes facing any opposing Batterskulls laughable.
Agreed here. Just because a deck is running white doesn't mean it wants to dilute it's gameplan with at least 6 cards.
I agree that this is a much less certain issue than, say, SFM in Abzan (which is an all but certain inclusion). But it's at least an arguable position about SFM, as opposed to the generic "SFM goes into a Tier 1 deck but I can't specify which one!" that we always hear. I'd be much more interested in seeing an argument about Bant Eldrazi+SFM than about NamelessTier1Deck+SFM.
I guess even Eldrazi and Taxes, one of the most white decks in the format wouldn't play her, or they would have to drop their Leonin Arbiters and lose out on their Strip Mines and strictly better Swords to Plowshares. I am really not sure they would do that.
My Modern Decks:
BGWAbzan MidrangeWGB
UWRJeskai NahiriRWU
BRUGrixis ControlURB
This is the problem right here. Do you really need to know which archetype or specific deck would use Stoneforge?. I think we all agree if SFM were to be unbanned tomorrow we would see ourselves at least one month of every white deck trying SFM. Bant Eldrazi, Abzan, Taxes, Jeskai would try it out. Which would turn out the best? My initial guess is that the best SFM deck would be Abzan/Junk. Good combination of interaction backed with Turn 3 4/4 Lifelinker and a Sword maybe to get the edge in control mirrors. I'm in that deck. Jeskai would use her too, i don't know with how much success.
Again, you add pressure to a format that goes Turn 1 threat, you can't answer inmmediately, you're dead. Examples: Glistener Elf, Goblin Guide, Steel Overseer, Cranial Plating, Noble Hierarch(If you don't respond to t1 noble against Eldrazi or Infect you put yourself behind),etc.
Stoneforge puts so much pressure on the opponent to have right answers. I agree with the notion that it only takes a Bolt,Path,Disfigure,Shock to kill her. It just puts the stress and makes the format faster in the sense that Aggro/Combo creature decks will go under it probably, except for Burn. You end up with a card that gets played in almost every midrange/control deck. I can bet my money on that. She is that good.
Let's say for a second she doesn't get played in such a way i describe. The unban is just too risky. For me, BBE,Jace and SFM are just attempts to the format diversity in a desperate search for balance of archetypes. I can get behind your disgust towards the aggro world we live in, i'm afraid we just have to wait a little more, invest time in trying to beat this decks with the tools we have, and trust that WOTC will print some great cards in future sets.
All the unbans that could be made were made by my notion. There's nothing left in the banlist that can make the format truly better as we stand right now.
No modern PT is huge, Eldrazi wouldn't have been discovered so fast without the pros trying to break it for months prior to the PT. Pros don't try brews in teams for gp's so most new amazing decks won't show up nearly as fast. No PT opens up alot of options for WOTC and there was no reason to get rid of it if they still want the meta to change so drastically regularly.
It may be that SFM may slot into some decks but lets be honest nearly every deck packs artifact hate due to affinity. It's not hard to deal with artifacts in the format currently and honestly she would give a lot of tier 2 decks (soul sisters for instance)a chance in the meta game while not crippling any decks in the top tier.
Abzan had a 4% showing in the September metagame update, and wasn't Tier 1 before that and isn't Tier 1 now. What evidence do you have that shows Abzan is currently a Tier 1 deck and should be treated the same way as the much clearer Tier 1 Jund?
Jund doesn't need help. It has been Tier 1 in basically (maybe even literally) every metagame period since I started doing metagame analysis in 2015. Just look at the history of cards Wizards unbanned: Valakut, Nacatl, BB, GGT, Sword, and AV. Those cards all slotted into major under-performing, or non-existant, decks at the time of their unban. An unban that so directly helps a deck like Jund doesn't remotely fit that mold.
The only unbans I've "supported" recently are Preordain and, to a much lesser extent, SFM. And even with Preordain, it's more of a "Yeah, we could unban that and it would be safe/helpful" instead of a "WIZARDS! UNBAN THIS NOW BECAUSE WE NEED TO HELP MODERN!" stance. I don't think Modern's issues are best solved through unbans and bans, but because this is the banlist thread, I'm focusing on more limited banlist-based solutions.
That way you have Abzan with SFM, Jund with Bloodbraid, and possibly Naya midrange with both which would be a sweet new archetype
And I suppose someone will try to build 4-color again playing all the best that WBRG has to offer
RGTron
UGInfect
URStorm
WUBRAd Nauseam
BRGrishoalbrand
URGScapeshift
WBGAbzan Company
WUBRGAmulet Titan
BRGLiving End
WGBogles
I love mystic and all but she slots directly into Abzan which is a tier 1 deck rather nicely
Decks I'm playing in Modern right now:
URB Grixis Reveler (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-grixis-reveler/)
UB Faeries (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/ub-fae-2/)
UW Azorious Control (http://www.mtgvault.com/supast4r7/decks/modern-ojutai-control-2/)
So your argument is that Abzan, a tier1 deck with lesser percent, doesn't need Stoneforge Mystic yet another tier1 deck with higher metagame percent is languishing and needs
Bloodbraid Elf?
I'm sorry, I don't follow your logic of one deck not needing any help while an even better one does.
Unban Jace
Unban Stoneforge
Ban nothing
Power up midrange/control so much that you don't need to ban anything from the other archetypes