My prediction is that if even a single Abzan or Jund list makes top 8, let alone wins, certain people will claim modern is finished, absolutely dominated by BGx which is absolutely without a doubt the best, undefeatable deck, and that modern is completely unaffordable to anyone except royalty.
So basically like it already is according to some people
The thing is that not many of the big pros will ever touch an aggressive deck.
Sure maybe a no-name makes his way in but players like Luis Scott-Vargas will never seriously consider Burn or Affinity which lack interaction and can easily be hated out.
Pros will play aggressive decks. Like UR Delver. They just won't play Burn, Shahar Shenhar being the exception.
Well Delver is able to defend itself against things like combo with counterspells. Other decks lack this and just have to hope to still get there.
2x Junk
1x Tron
2x Affinity
1x U/R/x Control
1x Ascendancy, Bogles or other randomness
1x Dredge, piloted by some deckbuilding genius who also knows how to draft
It's probably actually Tron OR Scapeshift, and that really depends on how many Abzan/Junk decks there are, but if I had to pick one I'd say perhaps it is Tron's time to shine.
I expect decks like Scapeshift and Twin to be in the top 16, but not necessarily the Top 8. And I also expect that I could easily be 50% wrong, but the Junk/Affinity numbers seem pretty predictable.
We are on the eve of the Pro Tour so it's time for a metagame update. The following paper, MTGO, and pooled metagames are all taken from data since the banlist changes went into effect. I'll give the different metagames, make some quick comments on them, and then give an overall impression of how the post-banning format is shaping out.
MTGO Metagame: Top 10 decks Total events: 11
Total decks: 272 (01/28/2015 - 02/05/2015)
1. Junk: (16%)
2. Burn: (10.9%)
3. Affinity: (6.9%)
4. RG Tron: (5.8%)
5. RUG Twin: (5.5%)
6. UR Twin: (4.7%)
7. UWR Control: (4.4%)
8. Amulet of Vigor: (3.6%)
9. Scapeshift: (3.3%)
10. Jund: (2.5%)
Surprising absolutely no one, the online metagame drifts towards the safe choices in this brave new format. Junk and Burn together make up just over 25% of the metagame, which although pretty high by normal standards is still not nearly as bad as the Pod/Delver or Delver/Burn situation of the post-KTK fall and winter. That said, the return of Twin and UWR Control is overall great news for format diversity, even if they are lagging behind Burn and Junk by a considerable margin. Finally, when thinking about this data, it is important to note that this dataset has been buoyed by 3 dailies that were not reported on the mothership and were recorded directly from the client, so the sample size is a bit bigger than what you would get from pure mothership data.
Paper Metagame: Top 10 decks Total events: 44
Total decks: 309 (01/23/2015 - 02/05/2015)
1. Junk: (14.8%)
2. Affinity: (9.4%)
3. Burn: (7.1%)
4. Merfolk: (5.2%)
5. RG Tron: (4.2%)
6. Scapeshift: (4.2%)
7. Infect: (3.5%)
8. UR Twin: (3.2%)
9. Mono U Tron: (2.6%)
10. UWR Midrange: (2.6%)
Unlike with MTGO, our paper datset has a lot more events and decks in it, which gives us a much more "accurate" description than we might see from just the online results. The most obvious takeaway from this data is the prevalence of Junk, which although lower than MTGO, is still quite high by paper standards. I should observe that this prevalence has decreased over this 1.5 week period, so it's unclear how enduring the trend is. Apart from Junk, there are a few other similarities between MTGO and paper, namely RG Tron, Affinity, Burn, Scapeshift, and UR Twin. But there are also some key and very interesting differences. Infect and Merfolk have been big paper performers in the last 1.5 weeks, even though they have seen much less play on MTGO. This is even more noticeable in the out-of-left-field Mono U Tron, which has made numerous Italian PPTQ showings to put it into the top 10. Also worth noting is the conspicuous absence of Amulet Combo from the Paper top 10. So although we see some similarities between MTGO and paper, there are also some fairly interesting differences.
Let's end with a pooled, unweighted average between MTGO and paper.
Pooled metagame: Top 10 decks (1/23/2015 - 2/5/2015)
1. Junk (15.4%)
2. Burn (9%)
3. Affinity (8.1%)
4. RG Tron (5%)
5. UR Twin (4%)
6. Scapeshift (3.7%)
7. UWR Control (3.3%)
8. Merfolk (3.3%)
9. RUG Twin (3.2%)
10. Infect (2.7%)
With the exception of Infect and maaaybe Merfolk, there are absolutely no surprises in this Top 10 pooled data. Except for Junk, which is a few percentage points of where it should probably be, the metagame is pretty balanced between aggro, control, and combo. UWR Control has made a small resurgence after the bans, as has both UR and RUG Twin. Burn has stayed strong and Delver is just gone. RG Tron has emerged as a decent deck in this metagame, and Infect has snuck in as a kind of rogue aggro option. Overall a very interesting metagame for us to think about going into the weekend.
I am curious to see how these different metagame results compare to the Day 2, 18+ points, and T16 Modern decks in the upcoming PT. A few more days and we will know!
Did being worse stop people from playing Jund when they could've been playing spirit jund? BUG has a better UWR matchup in my experience too, not sure which is the better Tasigur deck though.
We are on the eve of the Pro Tour so it's time for a metagame update. The following paper, MTGO, and pooled metagames are all taken from data since the banlist changes went into effect. I'll give the different metagames, make some quick comments on them, and then give an overall impression of how the post-banning format is shaping out.
MTGO Metagame: Top 10 decks Total events: 11
Total decks: 272 (01/28/2015 - 02/05/2015)
1. Junk: (16%)
2. Burn: (10.9%)
3. Affinity: (6.9%)
4. RG Tron: (5.8%)
5. RUG Twin: (5.5%)
6. UR Twin: (4.7%)
7. UWR Control: (4.4%)
8. Amulet of Vigor: (3.6%)
9. Scapeshift: (3.3%)
10. Jund: (2.5%)
Surprising absolutely no one, the online metagame drifts towards the safe choices in this brave new format. Junk and Burn together make up just over 25% of the metagame, which although pretty high by normal standards is still not nearly as bad as the Pod/Delver or Delver/Burn situation of the post-KTK fall and winter. That said, the return of Twin and UWR Control is overall great news for format diversity, even if they are lagging behind Burn and Junk by a considerable margin. Finally, when thinking about this data, it is important to note that this dataset has been buoyed by 3 dailies that were not reported on the mothership and were recorded directly from the client, so the sample size is a bit bigger than what you would get from pure mothership data.
Paper Metagame: Top 10 decks Total events: 44
Total decks: 309 (01/23/2015 - 02/05/2015)
1. Junk: (14.8%)
2. Affinity: (9.4%)
3. Burn: (7.1%)
4. Merfolk: (5.2%)
5. RG Tron: (4.2%)
6. Scapeshift: (4.2%)
7. Infect: (3.5%)
8. UR Twin: (3.2%)
9. Mono U Tron: (2.6%)
10. UWR Midrange: (2.6%)
Unlike with MTGO, our paper datset has a lot more events and decks in it, which gives us a much more "accurate" description than we might see from just the online results. The most obvious takeaway from this data is the prevalence of Junk, which although lower than MTGO, is still quite high by paper standards. I should observe that this prevalence has decreased over this 1.5 week period, so it's unclear how enduring the trend is. Apart from Junk, there are a few other similarities between MTGO and paper, namely RG Tron, Affinity, Burn, Scapeshift, and UR Twin. But there are also some key and very interesting differences. Infect and Merfolk have been big paper performers in the last 1.5 weeks, even though they have seen much less play on MTGO. This is even more noticeable in the out-of-left-field Mono U Tron, which has made numerous Italian PPTQ showings to put it into the top 10. Also worth noting is the conspicuous absence of Amulet Combo from the Paper top 10. So although we see some similarities between MTGO and paper, there are also some fairly interesting differences.
Let's end with a pooled, unweighted average between MTGO and paper.
Pooled metagame: Top 10 decks (1/23/2015 - 2/5/2015)
1. Junk (15.4%)
2. Burn (9%)
3. Affinity (8.1%)
4. RG Tron (5%)
5. UR Twin (4%)
6. Scapeshift (3.7%)
7. UWR Control (3.3%)
8. Merfolk (3.3%)
9. RUG Twin (3.2%)
10. Infect (2.7%)
With the exception of Infect and maaaybe Merfolk, there are absolutely no surprises in this Top 10 pooled data. Except for Junk, which is a few percentage points of where it should probably be, the metagame is pretty balanced between aggro, control, and combo. UWR Control has made a small resurgence after the bans, as has both UR and RUG Twin. Burn has stayed strong and Delver is just gone. RG Tron has emerged as a decent deck in this metagame, and Infect has snuck in as a kind of rogue aggro option. Overall a very interesting metagame for us to think about going into the weekend.
I am curious to see how these different metagame results compare to the Day 2, 18+ points, and T16 Modern decks in the upcoming PT. A few more days and we will know!
While still small, this meta data is actually quite reassuring (at least to me). Nothing is super dominating (Junk is a little higher than I would like but something is always gonna be "top dog"). There is a little bit of something for everyone; combo, aggro, burn, control, midrange. Nothing seems unplayable, nothing seems completely unbeatable and everyone an find something they like (unless that was Pod or DelveR).
This weekend should be fun to watch.
My predication is:
WotC commentators say stupid things, have no idea about obvious interactions and do something they really shouldnt.
As for top 8, as long as there are no more than 2 of the same deck, i'll be extremely happy
I'm hoping for Esper Control top 8 underdog style.
While I share the hope, unless Wafo-Tapo does it, it wont happen. The deck has no big proponents playing it; meaning it has almost no popularity leading to no one net decking it.
I would love to see a draw go deck really shine but i'm not holding my breathe
Hey, Wafo broke it out at a GP in Philly, so he's obviously willing to take draw-go esper to a large event, and the deck's strengths are grinding out midrange heavy formats--sounds ripe for the expected meta at the PT.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Yes, I am a local area mod. WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Primary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
As much as I like to see Shamans performing somewhere, the harsh reality is that since they 4-0ed the first MTGO Modern tournament ever, they lost key cards and didn't get any other new cards than Burning-Tree Emissary and Cavern of Souls. Dredgevine though is hot, is entirely new (you can construct the deck from Zendikar and later) and also got now new toys (The Big Tas and GGT). Not sure whether it will reach top 8, but we will see various versions throughout the tournament I suppose.
Also, probably some new weird meta deck arises and surprises everyone.
That's why I made sure to point out that is going to sneak into the top 8 off of tie breakers
Also just to clarify, big "C" combo is for the version that splashes green, all of the other ones will be just Jeskai combo.
Did being worse stop people from playing Jund when they could've been playing spirit jund? BUG has a better UWR matchup in my experience too, not sure which is the better Tasigur deck though.
It did stop people from playing BUG or Junk back then though. Everyone knows that you can't play BGx without Siege Rhino right now. The results speak for themselves.
Regardless, we know that our lord and savior, the great waffle taco, will be playing something very controlling and very sweet, regardless of how well he actually does.
Private Mod Note
():
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Yes, I am a local area mod. WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
Primary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
Regardless, we know that our lord and savior, the great waffle taco, will be playing something very controlling and very sweet, regardless of how well he actually does.
Cuneo will be too. He isn't moving away from Control any time soon.
I secretly ship Ral x Jace... and Nissa x Chandra... :">So basically like it already is according to some people
Well Delver is able to defend itself against things like combo with counterspells. Other decks lack this and just have to hope to still get there.
Junk Midrange
Junk Midrange
Rhino Zoo
Affinity
UWR Control
Temur Twin
GR Tron
UR Storm
Ux Whirza
Rb Goblins
Legacy
U Urza Stompy
Duel Commander
Sai, Master Thopterist
Has a top 8 of a GP or PT ever NOT produced ridiculous backlash that shapes banlist discussion for the foreseeable future?
1. Ascendancy combo
2. Ascendancy combo
3. Ascendancy combo
4. Ascendancy Combo
5. Ascendancy combo
6. Ascendancy combo
7. Ascendancy combo
8. RG Shamans (slipping through on breakers)
DECKS:
UB Faeries [Midrange/Tempo]
RWUGB Affinity[Aggro]
FAERIES TOO STRONK!!!1111
- Fae Prophecy, 201
56782x Junk
1x Tron
2x Affinity
1x U/R/x Control
1x Ascendancy, Bogles or other randomness
1x Dredge, piloted by some deckbuilding genius who also knows how to draft
It's probably actually Tron OR Scapeshift, and that really depends on how many Abzan/Junk decks there are, but if I had to pick one I'd say perhaps it is Tron's time to shine.
I expect decks like Scapeshift and Twin to be in the top 16, but not necessarily the Top 8. And I also expect that I could easily be 50% wrong, but the Junk/Affinity numbers seem pretty predictable.
RGB Jund BGR
WGB Junk/Abzan Company WGB
LEGACY
RUGB Delver GURB
EDH
UW Geist of Saint Traft Aggro-Control WU
RUG Riku of Two Reflections Combo GUR
BBB Skithiryx Control BB
BUG is basically just worse than Junk though.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Standard
UB UB Midrange UB
Modern
GRWUBTribal Flames ZooGRWUB
RUGTemur DelverRUG
Legacy
UW Stoneblade UW
2 Junk
U/R Twin
UWR Control
G/R Tron
Affinity
Scapeshift
Amulet Combo
While still small, this meta data is actually quite reassuring (at least to me). Nothing is super dominating (Junk is a little higher than I would like but something is always gonna be "top dog"). There is a little bit of something for everyone; combo, aggro, burn, control, midrange. Nothing seems unplayable, nothing seems completely unbeatable and everyone an find something they like (unless that was Pod or DelveR).
This weekend should be fun to watch.
My predication is:
WotC commentators say stupid things, have no idea about obvious interactions and do something they really shouldnt.
As for top 8, as long as there are no more than 2 of the same deck, i'll be extremely happy
1-2 Junk
1 RG Tron
1-2 Twin
1 URW Control
1 Affinity
1 Burn
0-1 Zoo
0-1 Pyromancer Storm
Cheeri0sXWU
Reid Duke's Level One
Who's the Beatdown
Alt+0198=Æ
Oh what was I thinking!
Having faith in my fellow man? Bah, what a childish outlook!
Modern - Esper Draw-Go (Best finish - 12-3, 45th at GP Charlotte 2015), Jeskai Control, UR Breach Moon
While I share the hope, unless Wafo-Tapo does it, it wont happen. The deck has no big proponents playing it; meaning it has almost no popularity leading to no one net decking it.
I would love to see a draw go deck really shine but i'm not holding my breathe
Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
That's why I made sure to point out that is going to sneak into the top 8 off of tie breakers
Also just to clarify, big "C" combo is for the version that splashes green, all of the other ones will be just Jeskai combo.
In Wafo-Tapa we trust
It did stop people from playing BUG or Junk back then though. Everyone knows that you can't play BGx without Siege Rhino right now. The results speak for themselves.
I personally want him to run UW Control, no splash.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.
Yes, I am a local area mod.WELP. GOOD LIFE CHANGES ALL HAPPEN AT ONCE AND SOME ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVEPrimary Decks:
Modern: Esper Draw-Go
Legacy: RUG Lands
EDH: Sidisi turn-3 storm
Cuneo will be too. He isn't moving away from Control any time soon.
Storm Crow is strictly worse than Seacoast Drake.