- If something gets banned from Amulet, it'll be Summer Bloom. It'll be like Eggs: when they banned Second Sunrise, there was Open the Vaults if you were crazy/stubborn enough to want to play it, but the fact was that the deck was out of tier 1-2 permanently. In case you didn't know the "bad Summer Bloom", it's Journey of Discovery.
I think Explore may be the better alternative for Summer Bloom.
Edit: Never mind, I need to learn how to read, apparently.
If I had to assign some percentages to those predictions, here they are:
60% - No changes.
Format is basically fine with no deck exceeding that "danger zone" of 15%. The decks that are supposedly too fast are either not enough of the metagame to be called top-tier by Wizards (Amulet Bloom), or aren't as fast in practice as people think and have been adopted comfortably into the metagame (Infect). With no major Modern events until June, Wizards will want to see how the format evolves in that time, only making changes if necessary in July.
40% - Summer Bloom banned, Sword of the Meek unbanned
If this happens, it starts with Wizards identifying Amulet Bloom as a top-tier deck based on its T8 performances at major events. And if Wizards identifies it as such and has the turn 3 win statistics to back that identification up, something will get banned. The likely choice here is Bloom, which is effectively the Seething Song of the deck. Banning this "ritual" effect slows down the deck while not totally killing its unique, core engines. Finally, if Wizarsd bans Bloom, they will probably pair this with a conservative unban. Sword targets aggro decks, which have a big metagame share, and helps out traditional control decks, which have a tiny metagame share. Between those metagame factors and its weakness to Decay in this new metagame (the last time it saw play was in Extended without Decay and alongside Mox/Depths), it seems like a fairly safe unban.
I thought the banlist was announced at noon eastern, is it actually 11?
From memory it is normally at 10 but daylight savings have meant that the number itself has changed while the actual time has not. (Its still 0200 that it comes out here.)
UUU Merfolk UUU "Above the waves you may be mighty indeed, but down here you belong to me."
-Empress Galina
UBR Cruel Control UBR "The essence of every world, every spell, and every thought is power. Nothing else matters, because nothing else exists."
-Nicol Bolas
Not surprised at no changes for Modern. IF (and that is a big if) they touch bloom it will be a year in the coming because it will have to put up more numbers. I would love to see some incidental unbanning, but those happen less often than a banning it feels.
Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
“Your body is not a temple, it's an amusement park. Enjoy the ride.”
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
UUU Merfolk UUU "Above the waves you may be mighty indeed, but down here you belong to me."
-Empress Galina
UBR Cruel Control UBR "The essence of every world, every spell, and every thought is power. Nothing else matters, because nothing else exists."
-Nicol Bolas
Not surprising but definitely disappointing. I guess it's time to acknowledge my vision for this format is very different from Wizards', and I'll probably never be satisfied with it due to that.
Finally, no changes. I hope we could let modern settle now for a while and people enjoy the format without the anxiety of their decks being banned or frantically asking for a ban of a deck they just don't like to play against/lose.
Not surprising but definitely disappointing. I guess it's time to acknowledge my vision for this format is very different from Wizards', and I'll probably never be satisfied with it due to that.
Why are you disappointed? I'm happy that Wizards is back to being a bit conservative. There are a bunch of major Modern events in June, which will give more than enough datapoints for them to see if another unban (or ban) is warranted. I would expect to see some changes on July 13, depending on what happens in June. But for now, I'm glad that nothing crazy is happening to the format.
I'm just happy that they didn't ban my Snapcaster Mage And I confused that they didn't ban something from Amulet Bloom deck after few turn1-turn2 kills on camera.
So because the article didn't specify any changes for modern, you don't think there could be another article stealthed in later? Has that ever happened before?
I'm just happy that they didn't ban my Snapcaster Mage And I confused that they didn't ban something from Amulet Bloom deck after few turn1-turn2 kills on camera.
I think Wizards is straying away from its "Turn 4 Format" ideology, and is more interested in win percentages and metagame share now. That is probably for the best. There's a handful of decks in Modern that can win before turn 4, but doing it consistently is the issue.
So because the article didn't specify any changes for modern, you don't think there could be another article stealthed in later? Has that ever happened before?
For as long as Wizards has published B&R announcements online, those announcements have all happened in the same article.
MARCH 23, 2015, DCI BANNED & RESTRICTED LIST ANNOUNCEMENT
Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage: No changes
Turns out I was mostly right None of the 4 main formats had any changes, but they banned Treasure Cruise in Pauper, and Skullclamp in 100 Card Singleton.
Still no unbannings, it's interesting to see how low the faith in this department can be, already below the expected minimum value.
They have told us that the R&D do not spend time testing new cards on Modern. For the same reason, we can assume that R&D do not spend time testing banned cards on Modern, too.
As a result, it is very difficult to see a card to be unbanned from the list.
I think Explore may be the better alternative for Summer Bloom.
Edit: Never mind, I need to learn how to read, apparently.
Should we unban Tree of Tales?
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Big Johnny.
http://modernnexus.com/modern-banlist-predictions-for-march-23/
If I had to assign some percentages to those predictions, here they are:
60% - No changes.
Format is basically fine with no deck exceeding that "danger zone" of 15%. The decks that are supposedly too fast are either not enough of the metagame to be called top-tier by Wizards (Amulet Bloom), or aren't as fast in practice as people think and have been adopted comfortably into the metagame (Infect). With no major Modern events until June, Wizards will want to see how the format evolves in that time, only making changes if necessary in July.
40% - Summer Bloom banned, Sword of the Meek unbanned
If this happens, it starts with Wizards identifying Amulet Bloom as a top-tier deck based on its T8 performances at major events. And if Wizards identifies it as such and has the turn 3 win statistics to back that identification up, something will get banned. The likely choice here is Bloom, which is effectively the Seething Song of the deck. Banning this "ritual" effect slows down the deck while not totally killing its unique, core engines. Finally, if Wizarsd bans Bloom, they will probably pair this with a conservative unban. Sword targets aggro decks, which have a big metagame share, and helps out traditional control decks, which have a tiny metagame share. Between those metagame factors and its weakness to Decay in this new metagame (the last time it saw play was in Extended without Decay and alongside Mox/Depths), it seems like a fairly safe unban.
Just over an hour left!
Just to keep everyone on their toes...
I know of many that sold off their Pod decks to buy into other decks after the ban. This move would piss off so many. I doubt we see it this soon.
From memory it is normally at 10 but daylight savings have meant that the number itself has changed while the actual time has not. (Its still 0200 that it comes out here.)
Current decks of choice:
Vintage: Shops.
Legacy: Lands.
Modern: Lantern.
1) No change
2) Summer Bloom/Simian Spirit Guide banned
3) Jace unbanned
MARCH 23, 2015, DCI BANNED & RESTRICTED LIST ANNOUNCEMENT
Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage: No changes
My thoughts exactly.
Level 2 in progress...
UUU Merfolk UUU
"Above the waves you may be mighty indeed, but down here you belong to me."
-Empress Galina
UBR Cruel Control UBR
"The essence of every world, every spell, and every thought is power. Nothing else matters, because nothing else exists."
-Nicol Bolas
http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/feature/march-23-2015-banned-and-restricted-announcement-2015-03-23
― Anthony Bourdain, Kitchen Confidential
I will always firmly stand by the belief that Magic is a game first and a collectable second.
PucaTrade Invite. Sign up and enjoy the first 500 points ($5) free!
Level 2 in progress...
UUU Merfolk UUU
"Above the waves you may be mighty indeed, but down here you belong to me."
-Empress Galina
UBR Cruel Control UBR
"The essence of every world, every spell, and every thought is power. Nothing else matters, because nothing else exists."
-Nicol Bolas
'78 CB750F, '09 CBR600RR
UB Faeries (15-6-0)
UWR Control (10-5-1)/Kiki Control/Midrange/Harbinger
UBR Cruel Control (6-4-0)/Grixis Control/Delver/Blue Jund
UWB Control/Mentor
UW Miracles/Control (currently active, 14-2-0)
BW Eldrazi & Taxes
RW Burn (9-1-0)
I do (academic) research on video games and archaeology! You can check out my open access book here: https://www.sidestone.com/books/the-interactive-past
Why are you disappointed? I'm happy that Wizards is back to being a bit conservative. There are a bunch of major Modern events in June, which will give more than enough datapoints for them to see if another unban (or ban) is warranted. I would expect to see some changes on July 13, depending on what happens in June. But for now, I'm glad that nothing crazy is happening to the format.
I think Wizards is straying away from its "Turn 4 Format" ideology, and is more interested in win percentages and metagame share now. That is probably for the best. There's a handful of decks in Modern that can win before turn 4, but doing it consistently is the issue.
PucaTrade Invite. Sign up and enjoy the first 500 points ($5) free!
For as long as Wizards has published B&R announcements online, those announcements have all happened in the same article.
Turns out I was mostly right
They have told us that the R&D do not spend time testing new cards on Modern. For the same reason, we can assume that R&D do not spend time testing banned cards on Modern, too.
As a result, it is very difficult to see a card to be unbanned from the list.
Anything, but nothing at the moment...
Modern:
WUBRGAmulet Titan, WUBRGHuman
WUBRAd Nauseam, WBRGDeath Shadow, UBRGScapeshift, UBRGDredge
WURJeskai Nahiri, WURCheeri0s, WBGCounter Company, WRGBurn, UBRMadcap Moon, BRGJund Midrange
UBTurn,BRGriselbrand Reanimator, WGKnight Company, RGRG Tron, RGRG Ponza, XAffinity, XEldrazi Tron